1、Coffee Market Report January 2023 1 I-CIP declined but regained momentum throughout January,closing in at 174.95 US cents/lb The ICO Composite Indicator Price(I-CIP)lost 0.1%from December 2022 to January 2023,averaging 156.95 US cents/lb for the latter,whilst posting a median value of 155.54 US cent

2、s/lb.Average prices for all group indicators remained stable,with a slight decrease in January 2023.Across the board,price differentials shrank,with the Colombian Milds-Other Milds and the Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differentials leading the way by shrinking 12.5%and 11.3%to 12.15 and 48.88

3、US cents/lb,respectively.The arbitrage,as measured between the New York and London Futures market lost 10.1%,closing in at 73.97 US cents/lb in January 2023,from 82.26 US cents/lb in December 2022.Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 0.5 percentage points between December 2022 and January 202

4、3,reaching 8.6%.The New York certified stocks increased by 4.3%from the previous month,closing in at 0.91 million 60-kg bags,whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.04 million 60-kg bags,representing a decrease of 3.8%.Global green bean exports in December 2022 totalled 9.81 million bags

5、,as compared with 10.64 million bags in the same month of the previous year,down 7.7%.The cumulative total for 2022/23 to December is 27.26 million bags as compared with 27.67 million bags over the same period a year ago,down 1.5%.Green bean exports of the Other Milds decreased by 24.8%in December 2

6、022 to 1.24 million bags from 1.65 million bags in the same period last year.Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals also declined in December 2022,falling by 10.3%to 3.24 million bags,following a 15.2%increase in November 2022.Green bean exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 7.5%to 1.08

7、million bags in December 2022 from 1.18 million bags in December 2021.Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 4.25 million bags in December 2022,as compared with 4.21 million bags in December 2021.In December,South Americas exports of all forms of coffee fell by 17.3%to 4.64 million bags.Exports

8、of all forms of coffee from Asia&Oceania were up by 4.2%to 4.59 million bags in December 2022.In Africa,exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 9.0%to 0.97 million bags in December 2022 from 1.13 million bags in December 2021.In December 2022,exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico&Central Am

9、erica were down 15.2%to 0.69 million bags as compared with 0.81 million in December 2021.Exports of soluble coffee fell by 15.9%in December 2022 to 0.98 million bags.Exports of roasted beans were up 4.7%in December 2022 to 75,852 bags.Coffee Market Report January 2023 2 Green Coffee Price The ICO Co

10、mposite Indicator Price(I-CIP)lost 0.1%from December 2022 to January 2023,averaging 156.95 US cents/lb for the latter,whilst posting a median value of 155.54 US cents/lb.In January 2023,the I-CIP fluctuated between a minimum and maximum of 145.54 and 174.95 US cents/lb,whilst opening the month at 15

11、7.31 and ending January on 174.95 US cents/lb.Average prices for all group indicators remained stable,with a slight decrease in January 2023.The Colombian Milds and Other Milds decreased by 2.3%and 1.7%,to 218.91 and 206.76 US cents/lb respectively,in January 2023.However,the Brazilian Naturals and

12、the Robustas gained 0.6%and 2.4%,reaching an average of 170.03 and 95.98 US cents/lb.The London Futures market grew 2.2%whilst ICEs New York market shrank by 3.9%.Coffee Market Report January 2023 3 Across the board,price differentials shrank,with the Colombian Milds-Other Milds and Colombian Milds-

13、Brazilian Naturals differentials leading the way by shrinking 12.5%and 11.3%to 12.15 and 48.88 US cents/lb,respectively.The Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also lost 10.9%,averaging 110.78 US cents/lb for the month of January 2023.Presenting more moderate losses,the Colombian Milds-Robus

14、tas and Other Milds-Robustas differentials declined by 5.7%and 4.9%,closing the month at 122.93 and 100.78 US cents/lb.The Brazilian Naturals-Robustas differential also presented a moderate loss of 1.6%from December 2022 to January 2023,reaching 74.05 US cents/lb.The arbitrage,as measured between th

15、e New York and London Futures market lost 10.1%,closing in at 73.97 US cents/lb in January 2023,from 82.26 US cents/lb in December 2022.Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 0.5 percentage points between December 2022 and January 2023,reaching 8.6%.Robustas and the London Futures market were t

16、he least volatile amongst all group indicators,at 6.0%and 6.8%,respectively,in January 2023.The Brazilian Naturals volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators,averaging 12.7%,a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous month.The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Ot

17、her Milds for December 2022 to January 2023 is-2.4 to 9.2%and-0.8 to 8.9%,respectively.The variation of the New York Futures markets volatility contracted 0.2 percentage points,averaging 12.3%for the month of January 2023.Coffee Market Report January 2023 4 The New York certified stocks increased by

18、 4.3%from the previous month,closing in at 0.91 million 60-kg bags,whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.04 million 60-kg bags,representing a decrease of 3.8%.Exports by Coffee Groups Green Beans Global green bean exports in December 2022 totalled 9.81 million bags,as compared with 10.

19、64 million bags in the same month of the previous year,down 7.7%.The downturn was spread across all coffee groups except for the Robustas,which recorded a marginal gain of 1.1%.As a result,the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee year 2022/23 are down 1.1%as compared with 2.4%increase

20、for the first two months of the current coffee year.The cumulative total for 2022/23 to December is 27.26 million bags as compared with 27.67 million bags over the same a year ago,down 1.5%.Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 24.8%in December 2022 to 1.24 million bags from 1.65 million bags in

21、 the same period last year.This is the third consecutive month of negative growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year.As a result,the cumulative volume of exports fell by 17.8%in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23 to 3.54 million bags from 4.3

22、million bags over the same period in coffee year 2021/22.The latest downturn is primarily driven by Honduras and Peru,down 33.7%and 41.4%,respectively in December 2022 as compared with December 2021.Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals also declined in December 2022,falling by 10.3%to 3.24 m

23、illion bags,following a 15.2%increase in November 2022.For the first three months of coffee year 2022/23,green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals amounted to 10.32 million bags,up 5.8%from 9.76 million bags over the same period a year ago.Not surprisingly,the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian N

24、aturals reflected the changes in Brazils green bean exports,the biggest producer and exporter of the group,which also fell in December 2022(down 14%)as compared with November 2022(up 15.5%).Coffee Market Report January 2023 5 Green bean exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 7.5%to 1.08 million

25、 bags in December 2022 from 1.18 million bags in December 2021,driven primarily by Colombia,the main origin of this group of coffee,whose exports of green beans were down 11.8%in December 2022.As a result of the sharp downturn,exports of the Colombian Milds from October to December 2022 were down by

26、 12.7%,at 2.85 million bags,as compared with 3.27 million bags in the first three months of coffee year 2021/22.Green bean exports of Robustas amounted to 4.25 million bags in December 2022,as compared with 4.21 million bags in December 2021,up 1.1%,continuing to build on the 2.6%increase in Novembe

27、r 2022.The two consecutive months of positive growth meant that shipments in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23 were up 2.0%to 10.55 million bags from 10.34 million bags in the same period in coffee year 2021/22.Exports by Regions All Forms of Coffee In December 2022,South Americas export

28、s of all forms of coffee decreased by 17.3%to 4.64 million bags.The two major origins of the region,Brazil and Colombia,saw their respective shipments of coffee fall by 15.2%and 11.0%in December 2022,falling to 3.21 million bags and 1.05 million bags,respectively,from 3.79 million bags and 1.18 mill

29、ion bags in December 2021.Ecuador and Peru,however,saw their volume of exports fall by nearly half,plunging by 45.2%and 41.5%,respectively.For Colombia,the sharp downturns continue to be linked to local production conditions.Persistent bad weather linked to the La Nia phenomenon caused Colombias Dec

30、ember 2022 coffee output to drop by 29%,the countrys fourth consecutive month of negative growth,with a consequent impact on exports.In Peru,weather-driven elongation of the current harvesting period and intermittent rains hampering the drying process,both of which negatively affect the quality of d

31、ried beans,have been affecting the supply of coffee beans since the beginning of the 2022/23 season.However,since the beginning of the last month of 2022,social unrest in the country may have added to supply problems,leading to December 2022 having the lowest volume of exports since 2015,when only 3

32、10,000 bags were shipped from Peru.As for Ecuador,the sharp fall in December 2022 can be attributed to the previous anomalous growth in December 2021,when the export volume of all forms of coffee increased by 164.4%.The 57,599 bags of coffee exported in December 2022 is in line with the current tren

33、d and previous volumes for the month,averaging 57,508 bags in 20162020.Coffee Market Report January 2023 6 Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia&Oceania increased by 4.2%to 4.59 million bags in December 2022 and were up 2.0%to 6.57 million bags in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23.The

34、 regions increase is explained by Vietnam(up 16.4%),the largest producer and exporter of coffee from Asia&Oceania,which shipped 3.38 million bags in December 2022.However,the regions relatively small increase was due to the 39.0%decrease in exports of the regions third-largest exporter,India,which s

35、hipped only 0.42 million bags as compared with 0.68 million bags in December 2021.It was also the fifth consecutive month of negative growth for the origins exports.The downturn is to be expected,however,as coffee year 2021/22 was a record-breaking year for India,with the origin shipping 7.24 millio

36、n bags as compared with 5.95 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.Coffee Market Report January 2023 7 Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 9.0%to 0.97 million bags in December 2022 from 1.13 million bags in December 2021.For the first three months of the current coffee year,exports

37、 totalled 3.17 million bags as compared with 3.22 million bags in coffee year 2021/22,down 1.4%.Uganda is the main driver behind the fall in the regions exports,with shipments of coffee from the regions largest producer and exporter falling by 21.9%to 0.42 million bags as compared with 0.54 million

38、bags in December 2021.This is now the 12th consecutive month of decline for Uganda,with its cumulative total exports from January to December 2022 having amounted to 5.63 million bags,as compared with 6.77 million bags over the same period a year ago(JanuaryDecember 2021),equating to a 20.25%or 1.14

39、 million bag decrease.Drought in most of the coffee growing regions,leading to a lower and shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda and hence lower output,is continuing to hamper Ugandan coffee exports.As noted previously,Africas export performance is not entirely hindered

40、by Uganda,with Cte dIvoire(up 69.4%to 0.19 million bags),Kenya(up 33.2%to 0.12 million bags)and Tanzania(up 18.6%to 0.34 million bags),giving the region tremendous uplifts in the first three months of coffee year 2022/23.In December 2022,exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico&Central America wer

41、e down 15.2%to 0.69 million bags,as compared with 0.81 million in December 2021.For the first three months of the current coffee year,exports were also down 15.2%,totalling 1.55 million bags as compared with 1.83 million bags in OctoberDecember 2021/22.The regions latest decline,the third consecutiv

42、e month since the start of coffee year 2022/23,is mainly a reflection of Honduras,the largest exporter and producer of the region,with a 33.7%decrease(99,918 bags)in exports in December 2022.Two reasons explain the latest fall for Honduras:(i)continuing struggles with leaf-rust,or roya,affecting the

43、 origins harvests for coffee year 2022/23;and(ii)a technical downturn reflecting a 46.3%increase in December 2021.Costa Rica,Guatemala and Nicaragua were the regions other major origins making negative contributions to Mexico&Central Americas exports in December 2022,decreasing by 23.3%(31,848 bags)

44、,20.7%(87,100 bags)and 35.1%(103,290 bags),respectively.Coffee Market Report January 2023 8 Exports of Coffee by Forms Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 15.9%in December 2022 to 0.98 million bags from 1.17 million bags in December 2021.In the first three months of coffee year 2022/23,a to

45、tal of 2.8 million bags of soluble coffee were exported,representing a decrease of 13.6%from the 3.25 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year.Soluble coffees share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.0%(measured on a moving 12-month average)in December

46、2022,down from 9.1%in December 2021.Brazil is the largest exporter of soluble coffee,shipping 0.34 million bags in December 2022,followed by India with 0.22.Exports of roasted beans were up 4.7%in December 2022 to 75,852 bags,as compared with 72,446 bags in December 2021.The cumulative total for cof

47、fee year 2022/23 to December 2022 was 208,975 bags,as compared with 221,554 bags in the same period a year ago,down 5.7%Production and Consumption The latest provisional estimate for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags,a 2.1%decrease as compared to 170.83

48、million bags in the previous coffee year.World coffee consumption is projected to grow by 3.3%to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21.In 2021/22,consumption is estimated to exceed production by 3.1 million bags.The ICO will be publishing shortly ne

49、w consolidated revised values for production and consumption for 2021/22.Coffee Market Report January 2023 9 Table 1:ICO daily indicator prices and futures prices(US cents/lb)ICO CompositeColombian MildsOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsRobustasNew York*London*Monthly averagesJan-22204.29294.93271.08233.

50、80109.71236.13101.06Feb-22210.89306.36279.83245.05109.44245.38100.58Mar-22194.78285.81258.49222.03103.82222.4495.21Apr-22198.37292.64265.40226.11103.96225.3795.07May-22193.71286.44260.42217.84103.10218.6194.31Jun-22202.46301.57273.69230.40103.81229.3894.48Jul-22190.82286.07255.91214.80100.44210.8489

51、.60Aug-22200.11295.66268.43221.91109.65218.5398.75Sep-22199.63294.09267.49219.59111.36218.24100.49Oct-22178.54261.95240.08192.27103.01191.7292.16Nov-22156.66223.22213.85166.5492.59164.8082.67Dec-22157.19224.12210.24169.0093.76166.2183.95Jan-23156.95218.91206.76170.0395.98159.8085.82%change between D

52、ec-22 and Jan-23-0.1%-2.3%-1.7%0.6%2.4%-3.9%2.2%Volatility(%)Dec-229.1%11.6%9.7%12.1%5.3%12.5%4.8%Jan-238.6%9.2%8.9%12.7%6.0%12.3%6.8%Variation between Dec-22 and Jan-23-0.5-2.4-0.80.60.7-0.22.0*Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positionsTable 2:Price differentials(US cents/lb)Colombian MildsOther Mild

53、sColombian MildsBrazilian NaturalsColombian MildsRobustasOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsOther MildsRobustasBrazilian NaturalsRobustasNew York*London*Oct-2117.8158.89153.6341.08135.8294.74109.69Nov-2120.6160.66170.1640.05149.55109.50123.64Dec-2122.8660.31177.8137.45154.95117.50130.00Jan-2223.8561.13185

54、.2237.28161.37124.09135.07Feb-2226.5261.30196.9234.78170.39135.61144.80Mar-2227.3363.79181.9936.46154.66118.21127.23Apr-2227.2466.53188.6839.28161.44122.15130.30May-2226.0268.60183.3442.57157.32114.75124.30Jun-2227.8871.18197.7643.29169.88126.59134.90Jul-2230.1671.27185.6341.10155.46114.36121.24Aug-

55、2227.2373.75186.0146.52158.78112.26119.79Sep-2226.6074.50182.7447.90156.13108.23117.74Oct-2221.8769.68158.9447.82137.0789.2599.56Nov-229.3756.68130.6347.31121.2673.9582.13Dec-2213.8855.12130.3641.24116.4875.2482.26Jan-2312.1548.88122.9336.73110.7874.0573.97%change between Dec-22 and Jan-23-12.5%-11.

56、3%-5.7%-10.9%-4.9%-1.6%-10.1%*Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positionsCoffee Market Report January 2023 10 Table 4:Total exports by exporting countriesDec-21Dec-22%change2021/222022/23%changeTOTAL11,885 10,878 -8.5%31,137 30,272 -2.8%Arabicas7,061 6,098 -13.6%19,155 18,302 -4.5%Colombian Milds1,269

57、1,177 -7.2%3,552 3,168 -10.8%Other Milds1,917 1,493 -22.1%5,041 4,231 -16.1%Brazilian Naturals3,876 3,427 -11.6%10,562 10,903 3.2%Robustas4,824 4,780 -0.9%11,982 11,970 -0.1%In thousand 60-kg bagsMonthly trade statistics are available on the ICO website at www.ico.org/trade_statistics.aspYear to Dat

58、e Coffee YearTable 5:Certified stocks on the New York and London futures marketsFeb-22 Mar-22Apr-22 May-22Jun-22Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22Jan-23New York1.081.231.201.161.040.770.720.450.410.590.870.91London1.541.631.561.711.761.801.611.591.521.451.081.04In million 60-kg bagsCoffee Mark

59、et Report January 2023 11 Explanatory Note for Table 3 For each year,the Secretariat uses statistics received from Members to provide estimates and forecasts for annual production,consumption,trade and stocks.As noted in paragraph 100 of document ICC 120-16,these statistics can be supplemented and c

60、omplemented by data from other sources when information received from Members is incomplete,delayed or inconsistent.The Secretariat also considers multiple sources for generating supply and demand balance sheets for non-Members.The Secretariat uses the concept of the marketing year,that is the coffe

61、e year commencing on 1 October of each year,when looking at the global supply and demand balance.Coffee-producing countries are located in different regions around the world,with various crop years,i.e.the 12-month period from one harvest to the next.The crop years currently used by the Secretariat

62、commence on 1 April,1 July and 1 October.To maintain consistency,the Secretariat converts production data from a crop year basis to a marketing year basis depending on the harvest months for each country.Using a coffee year basis for the global coffee supply and demand,as well as prices,ensures that

63、 analysis of the market situation occurs within the same time period.For example,the 2018/19 coffee year began on 1 October 2018 and ended 30 September 2019.However,for producers with crop years commencing on 1 April,the crop year production occurs across two coffee years.Brazils 2018/19 crop year b

64、egan on 1 April 2018 and finished 31 March 2019,covering the first half of coffee year 2018/19.However,Brazils 2019/20 crop year commenced 1 April 2019 and ended 31 March 2020,covering the latter half of coffee year 2019/20.In order to bring the crop year production into a single coffee year,the Sec

65、retariat would allocate a portion of the AprilMarch 2018/19 crop year production and a portion of the AprilMarch 2019/20 production into 2018/19 coffee year production.It should be noted that while estimates for coffee year production are created for each individual country,these are made for the pu

66、rpose of creating a consistent aggregated supply-demand balance for analytical purposes and does not represent the production occurring on the ground within the individual countries.Note:Materials provided may be used,reproduced,or transmitted,in whole or in part,in any form or by any means,electronic or mechanical,including photocopying,recording or the use of any information storage and retrieval system,if the International Coffee Organization(ICO)is clearly acknowledged as the source.*