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来自硬市场内部的观点.pdf

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来自硬市场内部的观点.pdf

1、The Reinsurance Working GroupWelcomes You!Julie Halper2023 ChairStephanie Rabin2023 Vice-ChairAntitrust Notice The Casualty Actuarial Society is committed to adhering strictly to the letter and spirit of the antitrust laws.Seminars conducted under the auspices of the CAS are designed solely to provi

2、de a forum for the expression of various points of view on topics described in the programs or agendas for such meetings.Under no circumstances shall CAS seminars be used as a means for competing companies or firms to reach any understanding expressed or implied that restricts competition or in any

3、way impairs the ability of members to exercise independent business judgment regarding matters affecting competition.It is the responsibility of all seminar participants to be aware of antitrust regulations,to prevent any written or verbal discussions that appear to violate these laws,and to adhere

4、in every respect to the CAS antitrust compliance policy.The CAS is dedicated to providing a harassment-free conference experience for everyone.We do not tolerate harassment or any other improper behavior of conference participants in any form.Scope of the Code:All event participants,CAS staff member

5、s,guests,sponsors,speakers,partners,exhibitors,volunteers,and vendors/exhibitors must comply with this Code of Conduct for CAS Events.We ask that you join us in agreeing to engage,collaborate,and connect with other participants and event attendees in healthy ways.Code of Conduct for CAS EventsWi-Fi

6、AccessAttendees of the Reinsurance Seminar have access to complimentary Wi-Fi throughout the hotel.Network:Westin_MeetingPassword:CAS23Download the CAS Events App!View slides Email presentation notes Favorite sessions Participate in polling Fill out surveys Message attendeesNetworking Scavenger Hunt

7、 Raffle Find someone who matches the criteria in the rows on your treasure map!Have them fill out their name and company for verification.Please note:You must have five different names(one per slot).Please complete and submit this sheet to the CAS Registration Desk by 9:45 AM ET on Tuesday,June 6.(F

8、orm available with your conference materials.)Evaluations Evaluations will be emailed at the end of each day of the event.Links to the session surveys are available in the mobile app.2023 Reinsurance Seminar Working Group Members&CAS StaffJulie Halper(Volunteer Chair)Stephanie Rabin(Volunteer Vice C

9、hair)Timothy AmanBarry BlodgettRaju BohraJohn BuchananLon ChangDarrel ChvoySean DevlinJeff DollingerIsaac EspinozaYinglu FanAndy FengJohn FerraraLana ParkChris HauprichHannah HuangDerek JonesAaron Koch Trevor LeitchRobin LiLi Li LinChristopher McKennaBrian MullenMarni NovakMatt SchmittZilan Shen Tra

10、cy ValentineSteve WhiteWenyi ZhangDavid Core (Staff Co-Chair)Leanne Wieczorek(Staff Co-Chair)SponsorsStephanie RabinSVP&Chief Strategy OfficerHolborn CorporationMichael MilletteManaging PartnerHudson Structured Capital ManagementKelly SuperczynskiHead of Capital AdvisoryOffice of the CEO Aon Plc.Mee

11、t Our PanelMeet Our PanelMike QuigleyExecutive Vice President,Head of Property Underwriting&Multiline,Risk QuantificationMunich Reinsurance America,Inc.Mohit PandeChief Underwriting Officer,PropertySwiss ReGS-1:Views from Inside the Hard MarketFor over a decade,we have wondered when or even IF the r

12、einsurance market would harden;some questioned if the concept of hard and soft market cycles existed.But this year,we now have a sort of Grey Swan upon us:The“Everything Bubble”Has BurstInflation hit its highest levels in 25 yearsAnd theres Social Inflation Too!Investors from Inside and Outside the

13、Industry Are Pulling BackThe Reinsurance Market Has Seen 6 Straight Years of Poor ResultsReinsurance Markets Left the Business or a Segment with Limited New EntrantsPoll Key=RPVJMLabel=Are we in a hard market?Reinsurance Capital:Adding it all upThe last few years have seen an increase in frequency a

14、nd severity of natural disastersCyber activity has been on the rise as wellUS Consumer PricesThe Fed raises interest rates to attempt to cool the economy and tame inflationPoll Key=BDHKCLabel=Pre-Tax Loss QPoll Key=HYZUXLabel=Capital ReboundHistoric Decrease in P&C Insurance and Reinsurance CapitalU

15、nprecedented(Re)Insurance Market Dynamics15%Reduction in Insurance and Reinsurance Capital Coupled with Increased Demand for Risk Transfer0%3%6%9%12%15%18%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%200202021202223F201220132014Reported combined ratio201620172018Normalised combined ratioReturn on equityGloba

16、l reinsuranceperformance and returnsDrivers of the Current Reinsurance Market ConditionsReinsurer ROE:Influx of fresh capital tempered improvement in pricing and terms&conditions until recent renewalcycleSource:Swiss Re Institute estimationsSometimes the Big Story is What Didnt HappenThe 1989 resump

17、tion of catastrophes drove capacity to a half trillionPoll Key=YQIBMLabel=Modern Cat MarketThe Modern Cat Paradigm Worked Poorly for the Past Six Yearsand some Soft Market Habits Didnt HelpThe Top 10 List 025507550520002005201020152020Secondary perilsPrimary perils(i

18、ncl.secondary effects)10-year moving average(trailing)2017-22 average5-7%p.a.growthoverlast 30 yearsUSD 110bnof insured losses p.a.over 2017-2022Drivers of the Current Reinsurance Market ConditionsCat Loss Trend:Elevated catastrophe insured losses in the recent years50%shareofsecondary perils in las

19、t30 yearsSource:Swiss Re Institute,inflation-adjustedInsured nat cat losses(USD bn)Source:Macrobond,Swiss Re InstituteDrivers of the Current Reinsurance Market ConditionsSupply and Demand Imbalance:Spike in inflation drove demand for additional capacity while reinsurance capital erodedInflationaryen

20、vironment&limited capital inflows create an unprecedented context121086420-2Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23EA HeadlineEA CoreUS HeadlineUS CoreSource:Aon,SwissReInstituteDrivers of the Current Reinsurance Market Conditions Ransomware Loss Trend:Increased losses since late 2018Drivers of the Current Reinsurance Market Conditions Cyber risks constitute one of the greatest threats we faceDrivers of the Current Reinsurance Market Conditions Cyber Insurance-Key Challenges Remain

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来自硬市场内部的观点.pdf

来自硬市场内部的观点.pdf