1、Executives expect a slower energy transition as it gets more difficult to generate returns and progress diverges across regions.By Grant Dougans,Neelam Phadke,and Joe ScaliseReality Check:Energy and Natural Resource Executive Pulse 2024 AcknowledgmentThe authors wish to thank Nick Baker for his cont
2、ributions to this analysis.Copyright 2024 Bain&Company,Inc.All rights reserved.This work is based on secondary market research,analysis of financial information available or provided to Bain&Company and a range of interviews with industry participants.Bain&Company has not independently verified any
3、such information provided or available to Bain and makes no representation or warranty,express or implied,that such information is accurate or complete.Projected market and financial information,analyses and conclusions contained herein are based on the information described above and on Bain&Compan
4、ys judgment,and should not be construed as definitive forecasts or guarantees of future performance or results.The information and analysis herein does not constitute advice of any kind,is not intended to be used for investment purposes,and neither Bain&Company nor any of its subsidiaries or their r
5、espective officers,directors,shareholders,employees or agents accept any responsibility or liability with respect to the use of or reliance on any information or analysis contained in this document.This work is copyright Bain&Company and may not be published,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproduced o
6、r reprinted in whole or in part without the explicit written permission of Bain&Company.1Reality Check:Energy and Natural Resource Executive Pulse 2024 At a Glance About 62%of executives expect the world to reach net-zero emissions by 2060 or later,up from 54%in last years Bain survey.Most remain co
7、mmitted to investing in their transition-oriented growth businesses,but ROI challenges are intensifying.North America is viewed as the most attractive region for investment,despite concerns about policy stability.Executives in the Middle East,Asia-Pacific,and Latin America feel increasingly optimist
8、ic about their energy transitionrelated businesses.Industry leaders believe generative AI has the potential to improve maintenance,production,and supply chains,among other areas.The energy transition looks slower as it becomes even more difficult to ensure adequate investment returns and progress di
9、verges across a fragmenting world.Thats the main message from Bains annual survey of 600-plus executives in oil and gas,utilities,chemicals,mining,and agribusiness,taken during COP28 and the weeks after.As with previous years,our 2024 survey aims to get a better sense of industry leaders views on th
10、e energy transition,new technologies,investment opportunities,and where they see the greatest challenges for decarbonization.This years survey found that energy and natural resource(ENR)companies havent dampened ambitions for their transition-oriented growth businesses.However,customers willingness
11、to pay is a growing issue,as is the ability to generate adequate return on investment in energy transition-oriented projects.As a result,companies are focusing on projects with a viable ROI path.Clearly,the longer that executives on the front lines of the energy transition grapple with the challenge
12、s of putting decarbonization plans into action,the more sober theyre getting about the transitions practical realities.Energy transition progress is diverging across regions as the world fractures economically and geopolitically.Even as increasing government subsidies make some regions,such as North
13、 America,more attractive for investment,executives have growing concerns about policy stability.Macroeconomic headwinds(notably,high interest rates)have made it that much harder to assemble sufficient capital to scale up transition projects and to attract enough customers to deliver a return.2Realit
14、y Check:Energy and Natural Resource Executive Pulse 2024 2There are bright spots.For example,executives in the Middle East,Asia-Pacific,and Latin America are feeling more optimistic about the prospects of their transition-oriented growth businesses.As industry leaders prepare for this months CERAWee
15、k energy conference,these survey results provide insight into whats top of mind for ENR executives.Here are five of the most notable themes that have emerged.1.Fewer executives expect the world to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050Despite ENR companies continued investments in decarbonization
16、,about 62%of executives now anticipate the world will reach net zero by 2060 or later,up from 54%in last years survey (see Figure 1).This view is consistent across most regions and is most strongly held among oil and gas executives.A slower rate of decarbonization makes companies resilience and adap
17、tability plans all the more important,in order to withstand more severe impacts of climate change.2.Most companies are maintaining or increasing investments in their transition-oriented growth businessesThis years survey found growing optimism among most ENR executives in the Middle East,Asia-Pacifi
18、c,and Latin America about the contributions that transition-oriented growth businesses(such as renewables,hydrogen,bio-based products,and lithium and other transition commodities)will make to their companys valuation and profits by 2030(see Figure 2).3.But executives are more concerned than ever abo
19、ut generating acceptable returns to scale up their transition-related businessesThe financial viability of energy transition projects is a growing issue for ENR executives.Like last year,they say the greatest obstacle to scaling up their transition-oriented businesses is finding enough customers wil
20、ling to pay higher prices(or having equivalent policy support)to create sufficient return on investment.However,the share of executives identifying this as a very significant roadblock jumped 14 percentage points from 2023 to 2024,to 70%of executives (see Figure 3).In our view,the direct impact of h
21、igher interest rates on the cost of transition projects is one of the most important stories of 2023 and is likely shaping executives perspective on this issue.A 500-basis-point increase in the cost of capital can increase the total annual revenue required to finance a project by as much as 50%,as d
22、etailed in the Bain Brief“The Energy Transitions Other Big Puzzle:Making the Math Work.”ENR executives view taxes and carbon pricing,along with government subsidies,as top levers to influence customer behavior,according to our 2024 survey.3Reality Check:Energy and Natural Resource Executive Pulse 20
23、24 Figure 1:The expected net-zero timeline is shifting laterFigure 2:Optimism is growing in some regionsSources:Bain ENR Transition Survey 2023(n=608);Bain ENR Transition Survey 2024(n=638)Share of energy and natural resource executives who expect the world to reach net-zerocarbon emissions by targe
24、t date2050 or earlier2023 survey2024 survey46%38%206026%31%2070 or later28%31%Note:Excludes those who responded“no significant change”Source:Bain ENR Transition Survey 2024(n=638)How have your expectations changed since last year regarding contributions of new energytransition-oriented growth areas
25、to your profit and valuation by 2030?Share of executivesMore optimisticLess optimisicMiddle East61%4%Asia-Pacific55%12%Latin America51%10%North America29%17%30%27%Europe4Reality Check:Energy and Natural Resource Executive Pulse 2024 Figure 3:Financial viability is still a major roadblock for the ene
26、rgy transition4.North America is now viewed as the most attractive region for investment,but policy stability is a growing concernNorth America has momentum,with 79%of all executives viewing it as an attractive region for energy transition investments.The next-most attractive region is Europe at 65%
27、.Interestingly,executives from every region ranked North America as more attractive than Europeincluding executives based in Europe(see Figure 4).The US Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)is certainly a key factor in North Americas investment attractiveness,but there are likely additional dynamics at play,
28、such as the availability of relatively low-cost natural gas feedstock.And yet,theres risk in North America,too.While almost two-thirds of US executives we surveyed agree that the IRAs subsidies target the right areas,less than one-quarter believe that the policy regime will remain stable over the ne
29、xt five to 10 years(see Figure 5).Furthermore,42%of US executives think the IRAs subsidies arent clear and that the rules arent easy to follow.About 70%of executives worldwide say that reducing policy uncertainty would very significantly improve their ability to scale up transition-oriented business
30、es.Lack of organizationalcapability forscaling at speedGovernment policyand regulationsNote:Not all categories are shownSources:Bain ENR Transition Survey 2023(n=608);Bain ENR Transition Survey 2024(n=638)Share of executives who consider each factor to be a very significant roadblock to scaling thei
31、r energy transition-oriented growth businesses2024 survey2023 survey56%70%50%54%34%30%29%30%23%29%31%28%Lack of customerwillingness to pay or ROILack of cash/capitalLack of experience/talentin new business areasSupply chain constraints5Reality Check:Energy and Natural Resource Executive Pulse 2024 F
32、igure 4:North America is the most attractive market for green investmentsFigure 5:US executives want clearer,more stable energy transition policiesSource:Bain ENR Transition Survey 2024(n=638)Share of executives from each region who consider a region“attractive”for energy transition investments3rd1s
33、t2ndRankingMiddle EastAsia-PacificLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaNorth AmericaNorth AmericaEuropeLatin AmericaAustralia and New ZealandEuropeIndia74%76%73%65%60%71%52%50%53%North AmericaNorth AmericaEuropeAustralia and New Zealand83%61%48%EuropeNorth AmericaEuropeAustralia and New Zealand80%75
34、%41%Note:Excludes those who responded“neither agree nor disagree”Source:Bain ENR Transition Survey 2024(n=638)Share of US executives who agree with the following statements regarding Inflation Reduction Act subsidiesAgreeDisagreeSubsidies are targeted at areas that will benefit my low-carbon growth
35、businesses63%14%20%42%Subsidies are clear and the rules are easy to follow toaccess the benefitsThe subsidy regime will remain sufficiently stable over the next 5-10 years to support ourinvestment decisions23%31%6Reality Check:Energy and Natural Resource Executive Pulse 2024 A slower rate of decarbo
36、nization makes companies resilience and adaptability plans all the more important.7Reality Check:Energy and Natural Resource Executive Pulse 2024 Figure 6:Where will generative AI make a big difference?5.Artificial intelligence is increasingly seen as a difference makerThe share of ENR executives wh
37、o believe AI(including generative AI)and digital technologies will have a significant effect on their businesses by 2030 increased from 56%last year to 65%this year.Improving maintenance,production,and the supply chain are currently among the most promising generative AI applications across ENR sect
38、ors.Meanwhile,executives are skeptical that generative AI will play a significant role in reducing emissions(see Figure 6).This is unsurprising,given AIs significant energy requirements and the fact that the energy transition is first and foremost about constructing massive amounts of physical infra
39、structure.In our experience working with ENR companies,most are focusing first on applications with a clearer,shorter path to a return on investment.For example,some chemical companies are using generative AI tools to increase the speed and accuracy of quality assurance processes in capital programs
40、,reducing rework and total cost of ownership.Utilities,on the other hand,are augmenting customer service functions.Notes:Only includes responses from those who expect significant impact from AI and digital technologies on their businesses by 2030;not all categoriesof potential generative AI use case
41、s are shownSource:Bain ENR Transition Survey 2024(n=638)Share of executives who think that generative AI would have a significant impact on these functionsImproving maintenance(incl.predictive maintenance)Production optimizationSupply chain optimizationClosing the talent gapReducing carbon intensity
42、 of your operations70%58%54%29%25%Reducing emissions from the end use of your products(i.e.,scope 3 emissions)21%8Reality Check:Energy and Natural Resource Executive Pulse 2024 ENR companies are also using generative AI in combination with other AI technologies to unlock greater value.For some time,
43、one renewable energy developer has been using AI-enabled analytics software to try and spot maintenance issues before they occur.Now,the companys field technicians are also using newer generative AI tools to more quickly access information and recommendations that can help them resolve maintenance r
44、equests.Over time,we expect ENR companies to pursue more advanced and potentially higher-value use cases,such as increasingly automated design and engineering work.Improving maintenance,production,and the supply chain are currently among the most promising generative AI applications across ENR secto
45、rs.Meanwhile,executives are skeptical that generative AI will play a significant role in reducing emissions.Copyright 2024 Bain&Company,Inc.All rights reserved.Bold ideas.Bold teams.Extraordinary results.Bain&Company is a global consultancy that helps the worlds most ambitious change makers define t
46、he future.Across 65 cities in 40 countries,we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achieve extraordinary results,outperform the competition,and redefine industries.We complement our tailored,integrated expertise with a vibrant ecosystem of digital innovators to deliver be
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