1、Science hard copies may be obtained on request, subject to availability from the NATO Offi ce of the Chief Scientist. The sale and reproduction of this report for commercial purposes is prohibited. Extracts may be used for bona fi de educational and informational purposes subject to attribution to t
2、he NATO S multi-national workshops; and, technol- ogy watch activities conducted by the Science How they are expected to develop over time; and, What this will mean to the Alliance from an operational, organisational or enterprise perspective? Ultimately, this assessment is intended to provide focus
3、 to Alliance S (2) at a staff level, assist in guiding the design of future military concepts and capabilities; and, (3) overall, aid policymakers in preparing Alliance forces and the NATO enterprise for mission success in the future security environment. Over the next 20 years, four overarching cha
4、racteristics can be expected to defi ne many key advanced military technologies: Intelligent: Exploit integrated AI, knowledge-focused analytic capabilities, and symbiotic AI- human intelligence to provide disruptive applications across the technological spectrum; Interconnected: Exploit the network
5、 of virtual and physical domains, including networks of sensors, organisations, individuals and autonomous agents, linked via new encryption methods and distributed ledger technologies; Distributed: Employ decentralised and ubiquitous large-scale sensing, storage, and computation to achieve new disr
6、uptive military effects; and, Digital: Digitally blend human, physical and information domains to support novel disruptive effects. Technologies with these characteristics are bound to increase the Alliances operational and organi- sational effectiveness through: the development of a knowledge and d
7、ecision advantage; leveraging of vii emergent trusted data sources; increased effectiveness of mesh capabilities across all operational domains and instruments of power; and, adapting to a future security environment replete with cheap, distributed and globally available technologies. Eight highly i
8、nterrelated S near-peer military forces; cyber threats; space; terrorism; hybrid warfare; and, information operations. NATO is the most successful alliance in history, preserving peace and stability around the world for an unprecedented seven decades. This success is built upon the military and poli
9、tical framework that NATO provides for consultation, collaboration, coordination, interoperability, effective deterrence and, ultimately, united action. A key enabler of this accomplishment has been the NATO S providing deep insights into alliance challenges; ensuring the integration of Alliance cap
10、abilities; and making available an interconnected network of science and knowledge workers capable of providing evidence- based advice to NATO, as well as alliance members and partners (Figure 1.1). At its core, the role of NATOs S How these EDTs may develop over time; and, What developments and pot
11、ential consequences are expected for the alliance in the short, medium and long term. Anticipating the future security environment better than potential adversaries is one way in which the alliance has maintained a competitive advantage. S Be transformative or revolutionary in nature; and, Be emerge
12、nt or create generational shifts in S A global perspective on technological progress; Logical reasoning informed by S and, Candidate S Will present a signifi cant challenge to Alliance forces (e.g. survivability, defence, C4ISR, etc.); and, Will signifi cantly impact Alliance capability or planning
13、decisions (i.e. decision making, counter- measures, etc.) Science Technology watch activities conducted by the S Meta-analyses and reviews of open source technology watch and futures research articles/reports, from defence, security and industry sources; NATO-sponsored EDT workshops and innovation s
14、ystem engagements; and, Alliance and partner EDT studies and research programs. 4Chapter 1. Introduction Taken together, and in consultation with NATO staffs, a picture of the future technological landscape was developed and a sub-set of S 2.Technologies rarely evolve in a simple linear fashion, and
15、 complex synergies between EDTs are often as crucial as the EDTs themselves; 3.The list of EDTs provides a grouping of related technologies capable of technological disruption. The development of sub-technologies may be very different than the aggregate. Further, such a grouping is not unique, and o
16、ne fi nds many such taxonomies in the literature. All such clusters, or taxonomies, are simplifi cations; however, this particular clustering of technologies has proven useful for our purposes; and, 4. Technology has historically driven the changing nature of human confl ict, but not confl ict itsel
17、f 12. In this context “technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral” (Krazbergs First Law of Technology 13 ). New technologies will inevitably be used in confl ict, and it is necessary to understand how that might occur. This understanding provides a necessary fi rst step to support technol
18、ogy-policy decisions, potential capability development and prepare defensive countermea- sures. As such, discussion of the impact of S 2.The broad strategic context and drivers are outlined that will impact defence S and, 3.Separate appendices provide a more detailed exploration of each EDT, drawing
19、 heavily upon STO research and technology watch activities. This section also includes Conjecture Cards, short vignettes that describe the potential future application of these technologies. Earlier versions of these cards were used during workshops 14 conducted to support this analysis, and they ar
20、e added to help contextualise the potential impact of these technologies. 1.4 Overview5 An extensive list of useful references is provided in the bibliography at the end of this document. These are also used throughout the body of the text where appropriate. When using the Adobe PDF version of the r
21、eport, clicking on a numbered reference will take the reader to the relevant entry in the bibliography. If desired and available, clicking on the provided URL (i.e. web-link) will provide an option for the reader to open the source reference directly for further study and exploration of the topic. 2
22、 2. Science and, are not widely in use currently or whose effects on Alliance defence, security and enterprise functions are not entirely clear. Disruptive : Those technologies or scientifi c discoveries that are expected to have a major, or perhaps revolutionary, effect on NATO defence, security or
23、 enterprise functions in the period 2020-2040. Convergent: A combination of technologies that are combined in a novel manner to create a disruptive effect. Not all technologies or scientifi c discoveries are emergent or disruptive, nor is disruption driven solely by technology 4. Further, not all em
24、erging technologies will be disruptive; not all disruptive technologies are emergent; and, not all convergent technologies are driven by emerging ones. For this report, we focus on those technologies assessed as most likely to be disruptive over a twenty-year time-frame, including those that have mo
25、ved beyond the initial exploration phase but have not yet become widely exploited. Understanding the natural pattern of EDT development is a necessary prerequisite in understanding and assessing their potential effects on NATO and the Alliance. 2.1.1S(2)the level of attention or hype around a partic
26、ular technology or scientifi c area;(3)the current technology readiness level;(4)the time horizon in which the science or technology is expected to be fully mature;(5)the relevance to NATO operational capabilities; and, (6) the S indeed most technologies fail. Many avenues of science or technologica
27、l discovery never breakthrough to ig- nite innovation, or they disappear from public con- sciousness after initial enthusiasm as unproductive avenues of development, or they may appear later on as new convergent developments reinvigorating an old idea. Finally, even successful technologies may reapp
28、ear as novel ideas create innovation triggers and old technologies becomes so integrated into production systems that the original connection is lost on all but the most technically minded. Such an evolutionary process built on heroic failures 49 or creative errors is essential to scientifi c and te
29、chnologi- cal progress, as lessons and ideas that arise will often lead to entirely new areas for exploration, innovation and development. During a hype cycle, a successful trending technology will (arguably) ultimately go through fi ve key phases: 50, 51: Innovation Trigger: After a long period of
30、supporting research, a potential new technology break- through starts to show promise. This initial innovation trigger builds upon early experimentation, results in proof-of-concept stories and media interest is triggered. This spark yields growing public- ity and internet search activity. At this s
31、tage, no viable product exists, and commercial viability remains unproven. Peak of Infl ated Expectations: Early publicity produces many success stories often accompa- nied by scores of failures. Interest (e.g. as measured by web searches) is at an all-time peak. Some innovative companies take actio
32、n; many do not. Trough of Disillusionment: The limitations of the technology become clear, and some implemen- tation efforts fail to produce useful results. As a result, general interest falls, and negative stories become more frequent, although these may be overly pessimistic. Eventually, some deve
33、lopers and producers move onto other areas or fail outright. A bifurcation occurs at this point, where investment and continued developments occur only if continued progress can be shown through the refi nement of the underlying technology, development of a better understanding of where this technol
34、ogy is most applicable or a convergence of other technologies or demand. If this does not happen, the technology will eventually be deemed unproductive and disappear entirely from consideration, or return to the start gate to await further developments, technological convergence or changing circumst
35、ances. Slope of Enlightenment: With a better understanding of what is practical and where it can be best applied, the potential begin to crystallise and become more widely understood and appreciated. Next-generation products occur, and positive attention begins to increase with more and more success
36、ful trials and pilot products. Some companies remain cautious. 12Chapter 2. Science Expectation: Increasing publicity and discussion;Disillusionment; Exploring limitations; Enlightenment; Understanding utility; and, Productivity; Mature Application. This report assesses technological attention throu
37、gh a review of Gartner technology assessments 31, other technology futures analyses already mentioned, STO technology watch activities, and an analysis of web search activity drawn from Google Trends 54 (see Appendix I.6). 2.2.3Technological Maturity In general successful S a near-vacuum; micro-grav
38、ity; isolation; and, extreme environments (temperature, vibration, sound and pressure). Space Technologies Figure 2.7: The Alliance from Space. Humankind has been making effective use of space for over 60 years. However, two interre- lated and interacting trends have emerged that are driving an expl
39、osion in the exploitation of space and space-based assets. First, the global commer- cial space industry has taken a leading role not just in the development of satellites, but increas- ingly in sensors, communications and launch. This trend has led to dramatic decreases in launch costs, new options
40、 for the deployment of space-based assets, and the near real-time commercial avail- ability of high-quality space-derived information (EO/IR, SAR and ELINT). Second, new technologies and manufacturing methods have changed the nature, availability and costs of using space e.g. 3-D printing 72. Such t
41、echnologies included new propulsion options such as advanced electric propulsion systems, on-board AI, advanced robotics, on-orbit remote servicing of satellites, system miniaturisation (enabling smaller and cheaper satellites), improved and novel sensors, 3D-printing, improved power storage and eff
42、i ciency, and next generation encryption technologies. As a result, space is becoming increasingly commercial, congested, contested and competitive 73, 74. Use of space for C4ISR, navigation and defence is central to many of NATOs existing capabilities, and ultimately it is the foundation upon which
43、 NATO has built a technological edge. This use of space and space-derived data will only increase over the next 20 years, enabling increasingly capable and ubiquitous C4ISR capabilities. Combined with BDAA and AI, this has the potential to signifi cantly improve situational awareness at all levels,
44、support near real-time assessments of operational effectiveness and increase targeting success. However, as more and more Alliance capabilities come to rely on these assets, the risks from ASAT (anti-satellite) or robotic parasitic systems will become more acute. Increasingly congested orbits, incre
45、ased use of large constellations of smallsats and increasing levels of space debris will impact the effectiveness and reliability of space-based systems 75. Many nations have signifi cantly increased their presence in and access to space. Nevertheless, commercial developments and the increased use o
46、f space derived data are expected to dominate events over the next 20 years. Increasingly powerful smallsats and large scale constellations/swarming will facilitate increased used of space while posing signifi cant policy and legal issues. These legal and policy challenges include confl icts between
47、 commercial, academic and military use; governance of the global (space) commons; and, the potential for the increased militarization of space. Appendix E provides a more comprehensive review of this EDT. The following table presents the assessed potential impact, state and rate of development, as w
48、ell as identifi ed areas for focused research. 18Chapter 2. Science air-breathing hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM); Hyper- sonic rail guns 76; and, hypersonic crewed aircraft. The primary focus of this EDT will be on missile systems (HGV and HCM). Figure 2.8:Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) De- fence
49、(CREDIT:Northrup-Grumman). New materials and propulsion methods have enabled recent developments in hypersonic re- search and have greatly increased the likelihood of their wide operational use 77. China, Rus- sia, US, UK, France, India, Japan and Australia all have openly acknowledged research and test- ing of hypersonic systems 78. These systems are particularly strategically disruptive given the reduced reaction times available for ITWAA (Inte- grated Tactical Warning/Attack Assessment), the diffi culty in developing countermeasures, and the threat they pose t
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