1、Emerging Pathways towards a Post-COVID-19 Reset and Recovery Platform for Shaping the Future of the New Economy and Society Chief Economists Outlook July 2020 Emerging Pathways towards a Post-COVID-19 Reset and Recovery Chief Economists Outlook This briefing is part of the series of the World Econom
2、ic Forums Chief Economist Outlooks and builds on the latest economic policy research as well as regular consultations with a growing community of close to 40 leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forums Platform for Shaping the Future of t
3、he New Economy and Society. It aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current global economic environment and to identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and business leaders in response to the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. 2 Chief Economists Outlook Cont
4、ents Global context Post-COVID-19 economic outlook: What we know so far Post-COVID-19 economic outlook: Three emerging challenges 1. Retooling economic policy to reduce inequality and improve social mobility Transforming tax architectures Supporting labour market transitions and social protection 2.
5、 Identifying new sources of economic growth Co-creating new frontier markets Finding new paths for economic development and global convergence 3. Aligning on new targets for economic performance Embedding stakeholder capitalism in business Building consensus on a new set of national economic policy
6、targets References 4 5 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 16 3 Emerging Pathways towards a Post-COVID-19 Reset and Recovery The COVID-19 crisis and the political, economic and social disruptions it has caused have exposed the inadequacies of our current economic systems. Amid global concern for lives, livel
7、ihoods and the planet, leaders find themselves at a historic crossroads for shaping the recovery, and have a window of opportunity to reset economies on a new trajectory of more inclusive and sustainable growth. The first phase of the economic policy response to the crisis was marked by speed and re
8、lative consensus, despite lack of coordination. There was broad agreement that initial monetary and fiscal measures were well-calibrated in terms of size and speed; and that the single most effective government intervention would be to boost the capacity of the healthcare sector, most importantly fo
9、r testing, tracking and tracing, and to provide direct support to businesses and households. In addition, when low- and middle-income countries were hit particularly hard by compounding financial, health and economic crises, international consensus on the need for debt moratoria and debt relief form
10、ed quickly, which now need to be implemented. However, as economies enter the rebuilding phase amid ongoing uncertainty about the spread of the virus, policy options are becoming more diffuse. Following a brief review of the most recent developments, this edition of the World Economic Forum Chief Ec
11、onomists Outlook sets out a high- level agenda for a path forward on three key emerging challenges: retooling economic policy to reduce inequality and improve social mobility; identifying new sources of economic growth; and aligning on new targets for economic performance. As the contours of the glo
12、bal economic environment evolve, upcoming editions of the Chief Economists Outlook will continue to explore forward-looking topics, including an in-depth look at the themes covered in this publication. Global context 4 Chief Economists Outlook Uncertainty about the future trajectory of the global ec
13、onomy continues to be high as the spread of the virus and the effect of containment measures remain challenging to predict. The crisis compounds volatility from trade tensions and lower international cooperation which marked 2019. The most recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)1 a
14、nd the European Commission2 revised significantly downward their initial projections for 2020 growth made during the first quarter of the year. Available data on the impact of the pandemic show dramatic collapses in output, most pronounced in services sectors, and in some cases bigger in magnitude t
15、han the economic contraction at the time of the Great Depression. Output dropped by as much as 20%-30% during lockdowns in some OECD countries.3 The ILO estimates that the global drop in hours worked between the last quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 adds up to 130 million full-time jobs
16、; the loss is projected to be equivalent to 305 million full- time jobs for the second quarter of 2020.4 Both the health and economic impact of the pandemic have been very uneven across different populations, often reinforcing historical patterns of disadvantage. The crisis has been disproportionate
17、ly more severe for women as well as low- and middle-income households.5 Impact in the US has also been shown to vary significantly by ethnicity; for example, small businesses with Black, Asian or Hispanic owners have suffered disproportionately.6 For low- and middle- income earners in the US, the cr
18、isis comes at the tail-end of 10 years of wage and wealth stagnation following the 2008 financial crisis, which started with a collapse of the US mortgage market. It wiped out housing wealth for many and the slow recovery that followed left no margin to rebuild savings, leaving households with no re
19、serves when the COVID crisis hit.7 Early signs of a global recovery have become discernible in high-frequency data, such as measures of mobility, as well as retail sales and business sentiment measures (Purchasing Managers Indices or PMIs).8 Indicators even point to consumer behaviour returning to p
20、re-crisis trends in some countries; for example, OpenTable bookings in Germany are back to pre-pandemic times. US jobs numbers are also starting to improve, albeit very slowly. With uncertainty remaining high, it is still too early to tell whether these are the beginnings of a real recovery or only
21、an initial reaction to re-openings, which may yet cause the virus to spiral further out of control. Post-COVID-19 economic outlook: What we know so far 1 IMF, 2020 2 European Commission, 2020 3 OECD, 2020 4 ILO, 2020 5 IMF, 2020, Brussevic et al., 2020 6 JP Morgan Chase Institute, 2020 7 Serwer, 202
22、0 8 Citi, 2020 5 Emerging Pathways towards a Post-COVID-19 Reset and Recovery There is a stark contrast between the measured real economy impact of the pandemic and US equity market expectations for the medium-term outlook. The optimism of financial markets seems to be based on extrapolations on ear
23、ly partial recoveries in retail sales and industrial production. These have indeed been steep, but they remain far below past levels. Investors may also feel they can continue to rely on central banks to continue supplying markets with near-unlimited liquidity. Markets further seem to assume that th
24、e health crisis will be contained in 2020, warranting solid earnings forecasts for 2021. However, this reasoning may fall short if earnings are secured by reductions in workforces and investments, which, at the macro level, could add up to a significant deterioration in unemployment, innovation and
25、consumer spending in 2021.9 For this Outlook, we asked the World Economic Forums Community of Chief Economists two sets of questions, one focused on the current economic outlook and another on the policy options available (see Box 1 for questions). Possible answers were on the scale of strongly disa
26、gree disagree uncertain agree strongly agree. 9 Citi, 2020 Box 1: Questions put to the Chief Economists for this report Assessment of the current outlook: 1. Current unemployment figures are more informative about the medium-term outlook for the global economy than financial market valuations. 2. In
27、 my country/region, efforts to expand social safety nets have been sufficient to offset the deterioration of labour market conditions accelerated by the crisis. 3. The ESG agenda will emerge strengthened from the crisis despite the current contraction in resources. 4. The drive for greater resilienc
28、e in supply chains will lead to a reversal in international economic convergence. 5. The pace of innovation will be negatively affected by contractions in public and private R yet, some of the necessary preconditions for these markets to function are lacking. While traditional government interventio
29、ns, such as taxing negative externalities and subsidizing positive externalities, will always remain part of the policy toolkit, an ecosystem- level approach would further involve providing a long-term direction for innovation through the definition of societal missions, investing in proofs of conce
30、pt for new technologies, the strategic use of procurement and innovation prizes, as well as risk-sharing instruments such as loan guarantees and grants to crowd in private investment.20 Governments have de facto played a more active role in innovation than they are often credited with, for example i
31、n laying the foundations of todays IT industry;21 yet, they have so far mostly stopped short of providing an explicit direction for innovation. Views of the Chief Economists Community are sharply divided on whether governments should be doing so in the post-COVID era, with votes of both strong agree
32、ment and strong disagreement on this question. Finding new paths for economic development and global convergence Globalization has been among the most important drivers of international income convergence in recent decades. Yet, when the COVID-19 crisis hit, international trade relations were alread
33、y strained due to a series of policy shocks, including US- China trade disputes and tensions over technology standards. A longer-term structural trend that has been evolving alongside is the dwindling comparative advantage of low-wage countries in global value chains.22 As routine tasks could increa
34、singly be automated, it became cheaper to repatriate them to headquarter countries.23 These developments have been putting severe pressure on the growth model that had proven successful for South-East Asia. Some low- and middle-income countries have made strides in establishing a digital sector and
35、have leapfrogged high-income countries on applications such as mobile payments; yet, these successes are not yet far-reaching enough to serve as the foundation of a new long-term growth model. In addition, arms- length trade with low- and middle-income countries has been affected by lower trust in c
36、ross-border finance since the global financial crisis, in particular for countries with weak institutions. This reduced access to trade finance, in turn, has tilted the playing field in favour of multinational companies at the expense of smaller, national players.24 20 Mazzucato, 2013 21 Mazzucato a
37、nd McPherson, 2019 22 World Bank, 2017 23 Baldwin, 2019 24 Crozet, Demir and Javorcik, 2019 12 Chief Economists Outlook While the sharp drops in physical goods trade due to lockdown measures may be temporary, the COVID-19 crisis could accelerate two structural trends, one of which would hurt interna
38、tional convergence further, while the other could support it. The first is related to the call for greater resilience in supply chains as governments realized how geographically concentrated suppliers for critical parts and inputs have been. A move towards greater self- sufficiency or parallel suppl
39、y chains would imply a reduction in capacity for the countries that currently host them. It remains to be seen whether businesses will indeed be ready to give up efficiency in favour of greater resilience.25 The trade-off may eventually tilt in favour of resilience as uncertainty about the pandemic,
40、 geopolitical tensions or climate-change-related events may cause more supply-chain disruptions. A silver lining is that firms have now crossed the psychological threshold of large-scale remote work. This could turn into an opportunity for emerging markets to offer competitively priced services base
41、d on differences in the wages of skilled workers across countries, offering new opportunities for imagining a new future economic development model, one that also entails higher investment in human capital.26 The majority of survey respondents felt that the drive for greater resilience in supply cha
42、ins is indeed likely to lead to a reversal in international economic convergence. 3. Aligning on new targets for economic performance The severity of the crisis has forced a pause to refocus minds on what is truly of value. As public- and private-sector leaders are tasked with charting a transition
43、to a greener, more inclusive economic system, a consistent set of targets will be critical to creating accountability and assessing progress for both governments and firms. Efforts to identify relevant business metrics of environmental, social and governance performance (ESG) as well as frameworks t
44、o assess multiple dimensions of well-being beyond GDP have proliferated in recent years. There is a need to embed new measures of business performance, to align on new measures of aggregate economic performance, and to align micro and macro frameworks for greater impact. Embedding stakeholder capita
45、lism in business Every company will have to play a role in the transition, embedding the ambition of greener and more inclusive growth in their business model, governance and everyday decision-making. This will require the wide adoption of a well-defined, holistic view of firm performance and impact
46、.27 Recent experience suggests that companies that have consistently applied the principles of stakeholder capitalism during the crisis paying attention to the well-being of their employees, suppliers and customers to the same degree as considering the immediate interests of their shareholders have
47、weathered the crisis better than others. 25 Javorcik, 2020 26 Baldwin, 2019 27 World Economic Forum, 2020 13 Emerging Pathways towards a Post-COVID-19 Reset and Recovery This is a positive reinforcement of the 2019 Business Roundtable Declaration, which reaffirmed the importance of the principles of
48、 stakeholder capitalism, first formulated by Klaus Schwab in 1973. Beyond the crisis horizon, more evidence is emerging that companies that follow more narrowly defined ESG standards, on average, outperform the market.28 Yet, the implementation of ESG standards, which stretches from the implementati
49、on of diversity, equity and inclusion strategies to reduction in carbon emissions, is costly in the short-run. There is thus a danger that the contraction in resources will lead to a side-lining of the ESG agenda despite its urgency. Chief Economist Community views on whether the ESG agenda will emerge strengthened from the crisis despite the current contraction in resources are mixed, with views slightly tilting in favour of the continued momentum for the ESG agenda. Building consensus on a new set of national economic policy targe
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