1、Opportunities, risk, and turmoil on the road to autonomous vehicles Connected car report 2016 2Strategy heating and air conditioning; and the audio system all have been digitized in hopes of providing the driver with easier operation and better information. And the car including smartphones and othe
2、r devices carried onboard by drivers and passengers now reaches out to the surrounding world for music streamed from the cloud, real-time traffic information, and personalized roadside assistance. Recent innovations allow automobiles to monitor and adjust their position on the highway, alerting driv
3、ers if they are drifting out of their lane, and slowing down if they get too close to the car in front of them. All in all, the car of today is a technological marvel. And theres much more to come. Tomorrows car will represent a step change in form and function, compared with whats being offered now
4、. Although many commentators have described this future in terms of the autonomous vehicle, thats just a part of the change to come. The vehicle of the future is already taking shape in a variety of forms, although it is unlikely to reach full fruition on public streets and highways for 10 to 20 yea
5、rs. Nonetheless, there will be enough innovation before then to transform the automobile. There will be new levels of connectivity among vehicles, enabling new services inside and outside the car. There will be new kinds of cars, many dedicated to specific uses, such as ride-hailing and ride-sharing
6、 fleets. The culture of the automobile, including conventional wisdom about how vehicles should be owned and driven, will also change. Already, the very notion of what a car is for is being radically rethought. These changes to motor vehicles will, of course, also transform the auto industry. As the
7、 connected car matures technologically, it will influence market trends and automakers relationships. Features like safety sensors, detailed engine maintenance signals, and smartphone integration are already becoming common in new upmarket vehicles. Industry leadership will shift, in some cases, to
8、new players, while conventional original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will be pressed to substantially accelerate their drive for innovation not just in technology, but in their cultures, merger and acquisition approaches, management styles, and recruitment of talent. In this report, we will take
9、an in-depth look at how the car is being transformed through technology, and what the economic consequences of that transformation will be for the many stakeholders in the auto industry around the globe the auto manufacturers, suppliers, 10Strategy the computing speeds required to operate artificial
10、 intelligence and steer a self-driving vehicle; the evolution of complex low-cost sensors that can make a car act as if it is aware of its surroundings; and the software that binds all of this together. Innovative companies, both established automakers and new entrants from the technology industry,
11、are investing accordingly in new technologies and new services. This is especially true in the premium market, where carmakers like BMW and Tesla are pushing technology to the limit, but other kinds of connected vehicles are being developed as well, including low-cost urban “pods,” robo-taxis, even
12、3D-printed buses. 11Strategy some live with their parents or in shared households and put off home ownership for this reason. Although car sales are reaching all-time highs in the U.S., affordability of automobiles remains a key limitation for future growth. The movement toward car-sharing and ride-
13、sharing services will be driven in large part by the dramatic reductions in transportation costs that are expected with connected cars. Meanwhile, in China where members of an enormous and growing middle class still dream about owning their own cars, making them by far the largest new car market in
14、the years to come new drivers already expect highly sophisticated levels of connectivity and services in the cars they buy. Evolving regulatory and policy constraints: Policy and regulations typically lag behind technological progress, at least in the beginning of a new phase. For example, seat belt
15、s were first offered as options in 1949, but legislation requiring their use did not appear until 1970, in Victoria, Australia. We may expect regulators to respond to the new technology with laws ensuring the safety of driverless vehicles, 12Strategy Autofacts; Frost KPMG; HBR; Bain; McKinsey; NHTSA
16、; Technavio; National Automobile Dealers Association; OEM reports; Capgemini; Thomson Reuters; Gartner; Oxford Economics; Strategy specialist service fi rms Current world roles (and strengths) Auto OEMs Auto suppliers Consumer services (digital, cloud-based) Travel: hotels, fl ights, trains, more Ro
17、bo-taxi services Ride sharing Car sharing Rental Advertising Services: health, education, Fintech, more Communication, social media, collaboration Commerce, payment Content (video, music, more) Supply-side technologies Advanced driver assistance systems Humanmachine interface Infotainment Connectivi
18、ty, computing, and cloud-based enabling services Connected car packages Increasing competition Increasing competition Safety Consumer features Commercial features Connected car features and services Vehicle management features Autonomous driving Enabling the use of consumer services Fluid boundaries
19、 Smart mobility servicesOther services (used in-car) 16Strategy the humanmachine interface (HMI); infotainment support; and the enabling services that provide access to connectivity, computing, and the cloud. Underlying all this is the car itself, of course, which will go through its own transformat
20、ion. We expect more electric vehicles to be sold, and the car to take on more specialized forms, including high-end long- distance vehicles, low-cost/high-volume urban pods, and robo-taxis and other ride-sharing vehicles. Clearly, the traditional carmakers and suppliers need to significantly acceler
21、ate their transformation capability. Their current rate of innovation is too slow to keep up with all the new players entering the field. This is particularly true in the areas of new technology capabilities, piloting and launching new products, and overcoming legacy mind-sets and functional silos.
22、The answer is not necessarily to pump more investment into connected car or autonomous driving technologies, but to invest more thoughtfully: to recognize where your companys strengths fit with the new technologies, and how to build the capabilities to differentiate your company and stand out in the
23、 new technological environment. You may also need to accelerate your own internal management transformation to become more agile and keep up with change, while maintaining and enhancing your distinctive identity as a carmaker. 17Strategy a $500 smartphone offers a more compelling user experience. Th
24、ats why automakers, suppliers, and various tech companies have already invested billions of dollars in developing new technologies and services that might differentiate their offerings. The top five OEMs spent $46 billion on R to date, just 30 percent have done so. If you wish to establish connected
25、 services as a source of revenue, you must learn to sell not the technologies themselves but a premium experience, in which such services are reconfigured into several digital bundles that can be sold at different prices, depending on their sophistication. The key is to take a page from companies li
26、ke Apple and Samsung on how to use digital services to maintain premium pricing in the market. Think in particular about cloud- based services that can create stickiness, even lock-in, if migrating their data to another provider is painful enough to make customers hesitate. Core mobility services mi
27、ght, for instance, be complemented with services like “Siri at the wheel” using natural language processing software as part of the brand experience and learning from the behavior of drivers who would have to start “training their car” all over again if they switched brands. 3. Set reasonable expect
28、ations for your own innovation focus. You cant expect future business prospects to depend on services you arent equipped to provide. For example, many carmakers dream of maintaining a platform for third-party content businesses directed at drivers and passengers. Unfortunately, this strategy is like
29、ly to continue to be a dream. To be sure, the connected car, and especially the autonomous car, will eventually emerge as the “fifth screen” in peoples lives: the next media consumption nexus point after movies, televisions, personal computers, and mobile phones. But if youre an automaker, its highl
30、y unlikely that you will ever be in a position to monetize that screen beyond providing the hardware and software in the car itself. You face the same dilemma as telecom companies, which provide the pipes through which many online services travel but dont generally receive revenues from content. Mos
31、t automakers dont have the capabilities needed to create a content-focused business or maintain it with the speed and flexibility 21Strategy online fashion, grocery, and electronics retailers; online healthcare providers; and the like access your captive audience, while you take a share of what they
32、 sell? 4. Use your data. In many industries, such as retail, banking, airline, and telecom, companies have long used the data they gather from customers and their connected devices to improve products and services, develop new offerings, and market more effectively. The auto industry has not had the
33、 frequent digital touch points to be able to do the same. The connected car changes all that. You can now have access to a high-frequency feedback channel from drivers and passengers that will provide insights into driving patterns, touch point preferences, digital service usage, and vehicle conditi
34、on, in virtually real time. This data can be used for all sorts of things, including new product development, preventive and predictive maintenance, optimized marketing, upselling, and making data available to third parties. Its an opportunity not to be missed. 5. Move steadily toward autonomous tec
35、hnology. The death of a Tesla test driver in a June 2016 road accident will not slow down the development of the fully autonomous car. Within two months of the accident, Audi announced that it was setting up a self- driving subsidiary, Ford said it was targeting the release of a fully self-driving c
36、ar in 2021, and Volvo said it would be testing an autonomous robofleet on the streets of Pittsburgh in early September. The self-driving car will be the most valuable contribution to automakers top and bottom lines in a generation. The share of drivers around the world who say they are looking forwa
37、rd to these technological miracles is growing rapidly, and these drivers say theyre ready to pay a premium for the convenience. Of course, even autonomy will eventually become a standard feature on cars, but no OEM can afford to miss this opportunity. 22Strategy voice, gesture, and motion control; a
38、ugmented reality; biofeedback; integration with wearables and the home; and the ability to set the cars internal climate controls before drivers get in. Our research shows that the global car market has the potential to build considerable value from the sale of connected car packages to end customer
39、s fully $155.9 billion in 2022, up from $52.5 billion in 2017, an average annual growth rate of 24.3 percent (see Exhibit 3, next page). Realizing that value, however, will depend on a number of critical actions: Improve sales channels for connected services. If that value potential is to be fully r
40、ealized, OEMs will have to sell 320 million connected car packages between now and 2022. Current data suggests that, by the end of 2016, OEMs around the world will be 25Strategy the respective 2017 figure is 5.4 percent of the total, rising to 6.9 percent (see Exhibit 6, page 29). This discrepancy i
41、s in part a result of more premium car buyers opting for these packages, while just two-thirds of cars in the volume market will be connected. Thus, if automakers hope to slow down the commoditization of their connected car packages, they will have to figure out how to further monetize those package
42、s in volume car markets. By 2022, 75 percent of connected car packages will be sold as part of smaller, less expensive cars, and the prices for the packages will be proportionately lower. 27Strategy as auto markets, these economies will not outgrow the rest of the world. For one thing, although the
43、growth in the sheer volume of cars sold there 29Strategy Google Maps, for instance, is not accessible in the country. And the new 10-year plan may further increase entry barriers for Western competitors like Google, Apple, and Amazon. Innovative Chinese companies Thanks in part to this government su
44、pport, Chinese OEMs, traditional suppliers, and technology companies now entering the market are poised for real growth in, and even potential dominance of, the market for connected cars and related systems and packages. Some are operating through partnerships with OEMs from outside the country, and
45、 some through entirely local activities. Two of the countrys largest tech companies, Baidu and Alibaba, are already pushing hard to develop their own platforms for connected cars. Baidu, for instance, has secured BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, and Hyundai, as well as Chinas own BYD, to use its CarLife co
46、nnectivity platform, which, like Apples CarPlay or Android Auto, enables cars internal infotainment systems to connect with smartphones. Volkswagen, which is by far the largest-selling automaker in China, has agreed to use the software. So have General Motors and Audi. Baidu is also working on a tel
47、ematics service for cars, called MyCar, that would monitor car- and traffic-related data, which will also aid the company in its ongoing effort to develop an autonomous vehicle. And Alibaba, in partnership with Chinese automaker SAIC, unveiled the RX5, a so-called Internet car, in June 2016. The car
48、s features include Alibabas Alipay payments service, allowing drivers to pay for parking spaces, fill up with gas, or buy coffee. In addition, it offers three LED screens and space for as many as four detachable 360-degree cameras to record video and take photos, a smart rearview mirror, support for
49、 voice controls, and an onboard “intelligent” mapping system. In a press release Jian Wang, chairman of Alibabas technology steering committee, was quoted as saying, “What we are creating is not internet in the car, but a car on the internet. This is a significantmilestone in the automobile industry. Smart operating systems become the second engine ofcars, while data is the new fuel. Going forward, cars will become an important platform forinternet services and smart hardware innovation. We will be embracing a world whereeverything is closely co
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