1、GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST DECEMBER 2021 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST 2 GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST A STRONG FOUNDATION FOR GROWTH MEDIA ACCERLERATES IN 2021, KEEPS A FAST PACE IN 2022 U.S., CHINA AND U.K. REMAIN WORLDS MOST IMPORTANT GROWTH MARKETS BENCHMARKING DATA DECEMBER 2
2、021 WPP Employees Visit . GroupM Clients Please speak with your account director for the full file. General Inquiries Visit and search for the latest “This Year Next Year.” 03 07 14 18 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST 3 A STRONG FOUN
3、DATION FOR GROWTH Most assessments of the advertising industrys performance begin with a view of the broader economy, usually relying on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a proxy for its overall health. This approach is rooted in strong historical correlations between the growth rate of advertising an
4、d overall economic activity in many markets. Then, in 2020, when the advertising industry performed decently during one of the worst economies on recordeven faring better at a global level than it did in 2001 and avoiding the declines of 2009those connections appeared somewhat tenuous. Whatever the
5、quantifiable relationship, a growing economy should be supportive of growth in advertising spending and, on that basis alone, we can say that the current economic environment is very favorable for the industryfar stronger than any experienced so far this century. More specifically, global GDP foreca
6、sts produced by the IMF in October and analyzed in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for inflation to mirror how we will look at the advertising industrys growth), using updated exchange rates from November as aggregated by Refinitiv, shows an expected constant currency nominal growth rate of 9.4
7、% for the markets we track in This Year, Next Year. This follows a 1.6% decline recorded last year and precedes a forecast of 7.6% growth during 2022. Conditions are a little less rosy if we consider economic activity in real terms, adjusting for inflation: Current global levels of inflation are exp
8、ected to reach nearly 4% during 2021 and 2022, a relatively high figure. However, even adjusting for higher prices, real GDP should still be considered historically strong. While inflation can offer an advantage for some market participants especially those able to pass along higher costs to custome
9、rsit can also create economic friction. For example, a manufacturer that cant pass along higher costs for a particular product may decide to simply stop -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
10、 2022 2023 2024 Source: GroupM analysis of data aggregated via Refinitiv Nominal GDP Growth THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST 4 making it. There are certainly instances of that occurring now, as when a restaurant closes because of a lack of labor (or alternatively, when that restaura
11、nt is unwilling to pay higher wages), but, in general, consumers are demonstrating a willingness to pay more for what they want. At the same time, supply chain constraints mean that some manufacturers are unable to secure all the goods they want to sell. However, this is often occurring because othe
12、r companies have secured access to critical inputs instead. Those companies that are lacking key components could choose to make fewer of the same products they made before the pandemic. Instead, we often see them reserving scarce components for higher-value goods or eliminating features from lower-
13、value ones in order to make the most of existing production lines. As long as they are making anything, most manufacturers end up spending money on advertising to support their evolving business goals, at least so long as they believe that doing so is more effective than not. “Going dark,” as it wer
14、e, is not an ideal alternative when competitors are maintaining or expanding their advertising budgets and growing their share of voice in the process. In an economy that is undeniably strong, spending more on advertising has tended to be the more favorable choice for established manufacturers and n
15、ewer ones alike. Within this context, the advertising industry is expanding much faster than we anticipated earlier in the year. Our industry-wide expectation for global advertising in 2021 now calls for a growth rate of 22.5% versus 19.2% previously (both figures exclude U.S. political advertising)
16、. Likewise, 2022 is poised to grow faster than we predicted in June: We now forecast global growth of 9.7% versus 8.8% previously. At a global level, the media we track hereTV, digital platforms, audio, newspapers and magazines, cinema and outdoor mediawill collectively account for $766 billion in a
17、d revenue. Combined, they should exceed $1 trillion in revenue during 2025 based upon our new estimates. Source: GroupM analysis of data aggregated via Refinitiv Global CPI Inflation 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20
18、16 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST 5 We recognize the rates of growth observed in 2021 appear to be historical anomalies in an industry more accustomed to mid-single digit levels. However, a heightened pace of expansion for the advertisi
19、ng industry could very well persist as long as economies around the world are producing companies that are more reliant on advertising than those they replace. We would further emphasize that growth rates may vary widely by country. While many of the underlying trends we observe are global, they do
20、appear to be disproportionately concentrated in the U.S., the U.K. and China, which together account for approximately 70% of all the industrys growth, despite making up about 60% of the total market. Still, our expectations for expansion are relatively widespread: Among the 64 territories we track,
21、 we expect the median one to expand by 19.4% in 2021 and 9.1% in 2022. In most instances, growth appears especially strong when viewed in comparison to declines in 2020, although two-year growth rates between 2019 and 2021 are also commonly well above historical averages. Looking at the top 10 adver
22、tising markets over longer time horizons, growth should moderate, with France, Germany, Australia and the U.S. all poised to grow in a range of 4-5% annually, on average, over the next five years, while markets including India, the U.K., Brazil, Canada, Japan and China are forecast to grow between 6
23、-8% annually, on average. Of course, there also are risks to the durability of all of this growth. Weve previously noted that at least some of the expansion occurring in advertising may be due to several specific kinds of businesses. These include i) new small businesses, many of which emerged or ex
24、panded rapidly during the pandemic, and which may have allocated greater shares of resources to nationally oriented digital advertising than the businesses they effectively replaced in the economy, ii) marketers based in China that capitalize on low-cost international shipping and that specifically
25、use global digital platforms to reach overseas consumers and iii) app developers or other “digital endemic” businesses that are rooted in the internet economy, many of which focused on advertising-driven top-line revenue growth regardless of the near-term profitability of that activity but were aide
26、d by “hot” capital markets that have been happy to reward customer acquisitions at almost any cost. Any of the factors causing the emergence of these businesses could go into reverse as suddenly as they started to accelerate. For practical purposes in establishing our forecasts, we dont expect a new
27、 round of hyper-growth from any particular large set of marketers. At the same time, we dont think that the companies that drove 2021s growth will go away anytime soon. Together, these considerations lead to moderating, if still historically strong, growth expectations for the advertising economy in
28、 2022. THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST 6 Total Advertising Growth Excluding U.S. Political Advertising Source: GroupM -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 2000200220042006200820002220242026 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST 7 M
29、EDIA ACCELERATES IN 2021, KEEPS A FAST PACE IN 2022 Digital advertising will likely end 2021 growing by 30.5%, excluding U.S. political advertising, which is remarkable considering the base line established in 2020. The sub-sector will account for $491 billion in its narrow definition (i.e., excludi
30、ng revenues from digital extensions of traditional media) or $537 billion in its broader form. The narrow form of digital advertising should grow by an additional 13.5% during 2022. On this basis, digital advertising should account for 64.4% of total advertising in 2021, up from 60.5% in 2020 and 52
31、.1% in 2019. Excluding China, where digital advertising shares are particularly high, global digital advertising accounts for 58.7% of all advertising in 2021. Within these figures, the worlds largest sellers of advertising outside of ChinaAlphabet, Meta and Amazonaccount for somewhere between 80-90
32、% of the global total, by our estimates. Looking at total advertising outside of China in all its forms, the three aforementioned media companies represent more than 50% of the industrys total in 2021, up from closer to 40% in 2019. One might argue that such levels of concentration are important for
33、 individual content creators and small advertisers, but less so for the larger advertisers we focus on. Best practices dictate that large marketers always maintain the capacity to walk away from any given media outlet, given the range of alternatives they have to reach audiences and allocate resourc
34、es. Because many marketers seek to benchmark their budgets against industry-wide averages, its important to note some spending dynamics that may be lost in the overall numbers. For example, smaller companies and businesses that operate entirely online likely allocate 100% of their budgets to digital
35、 media, while marketers that have an omnichannel DIGITAL ADVERTISING DRIVES RESULTS DIGITAL ADVERTISING ROSE TO ACCOUNT FOR 64.4%OF TOTAL ADVERTISING IN 2021 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST 8 orientation, or are large enough to activate other media, tend to have lower shares of spe
36、nding on digital media. The result is that, in reality, the typical large brand spends substantially less than the average amount, as we explore later on in this document. Importantly, the more broadly we define digital advertising, the more that all advertising is considered to be digital. As time
37、progresses, the distinction between digital and non-digital advertising will become less meaningful than the distinction between the media companies, whose products will increasingly blur lines that historically divided different media types. From all of this analysis, one could be forgiven for thin
38、king that the changes Apple made to the availability of iOS user data dont matter. Such an observation would generally be correct, at least at an industry level. While some feared these changes would lead to reductions in ad spending, our view has always been that marketers look for the “least- bad”
39、 available data at any given time, recognizing that no data is ever perfect. With that constraint, they continually adjust spending and budget allocations to satisfy goals as best as they can. Apples iOS changes certainly benefitted its own advertising business, but its harder to know with any preci
40、sion whether Alphabet, Meta and Amazon might have grown faster or slower had changes not occurred. Each of them still grew at historically fast rates in 2021, and not much differently in the third quarter (post changes) than in the first (pre-changes). Overall, it seems unlikely that the impact on i
41、ndustry-level spending was anything more than marginal, much as the roll-out of GDPR in Europe was barely perceptible, despite the radical change that law initially represented. Digital Advertising Growth Source: GroupM -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20
42、07 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST 9 At an industry level, television is clearly the next-most important medium after digital. In its broadly defined form (but excluding political adverti
43、sing in the United States, which otherwise skews year-over-year growth rates globally), we forecast that global television advertising will grow by 11.7% in 2021. Given the depths of 2020s decline, which amounted to a loss of 13.7%, the industry is not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2023, e
44、xcluding U.S. political advertising. Subsequent years will be generally flat for television in most major markets around the world, as the largest advertisers that historically dominate the medium continue to incrementally shift their spending elsewhere. These shifts are offset in part by growing te
45、levision budgets from the larger upstarts whose businesses are primarily online. Overall, total TV advertising should amount to $171 billion in 2022 and, of that figure, approximately $17 billion will go to Connected TV+. Covering the digital extensions of professionally produced television content,
46、 Connected TV+ remains poised to grow substantially, with our forecast for 2026 now up to $33 billion. Most marketers are keen to capitalize on the rise of Connected TV+ advertising, both because of the heightened reliance on data and because of the growing availability of programmatic inventory. Ho
47、wever, even this type of media will mostly be used to build brands the way traditional marketers used traditional TV for many decades: by combining sight, sound and motion-based messaging together while borrowing on the brand equity of the programs around which their advertisements run. Importantly,
48、 the primary reason for all of the growth we expect in Connected TV+ advertising is that these environments are simply where a large and growing share of viewing is shifting. We recognize that much of this space is, and will remain, ad-free, largely because the dominant players , such as Netflix, Am
49、azon Prime and Disney+, are ad-free and plan to remain so in most of the world for the TELEVISION TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS IN 2023, RETAINS IMPORTANCE FOR LARGE BRANDS Television Advertising Growth Source: GroupM -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR | GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST 10 Global Connected TV+ Advertising Revenue ($ in millions) Source: GroupM 2,800.3 3,738.4 5,193.2 6,743.8 9,057.0 10,934.6 12,860.1 16,565.3 20,338.8 2
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