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1、REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA2024APRINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDA Tepid and Pricey RecoverySUB-SAHARAN AFRICAREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDA Tepid and Pricey Recovery2024APRCopyright 2024 International Monetary FundCataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames:Int

2、ernational Monetary Fund,publisher.Title:Regional economic outlook.Sub-Saharan Africa:a tepid and pricey recovery.Other titles:Sub-Saharan Africa:a tepid and pricey recovery.|A Tepid and pricey recovery.|Regional economic outlook:Sub-Saharan Africa.Description:Washington,DC:International Monetary Fu

3、nd,2024.|Apr.2024.|Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers:ISBN 9798400267895(English Paper)9798400269769(ePub)9798400269783(Web PDF)Subjects:LCSH:Africa,Sub-SaharanEconomic conditions.|Economic forecastingAfrica,Sub-Saharan.|Economic developmentAfrica,Sub-Saharan.|Africa,Sub-SaharanEconomic

4、 policy.Classification:LCC HC800.R44 2024The Regional Economic Outlook:Sub-Saharan Africa is published twice a year,in the spring and fall,to review developments in sub-Saharan Africa.Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of

5、the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMFManagement.Publication orders may be placed online or through the mail:International Monetary Fund,Publication ServicesP.O.Box 92780,Washington,DC 20090,U.S.A.T.+(1)202.623.7430F.+(1)202.623.7201publicationsIMF.orgIMFbookstore.orgelibrary.IMF.orgFind all published R

6、egional Economic Outlook:Sub-Saharan Africa https:/www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSAContentsAcknowledgments.vCountry Groupings.viAssumptions and Conventions.viiExecutive Summary.viiiA Tepid and Pricey Recovery.1Recent Development:Global Markets Reopen at a Steep Price .2The Outlook:A Long-Awaited

7、but Tepid Rebound .6Policy Priorities for Adapting to High Borrowing Costs in a Shock-Prone World .8Calling for International Support and Solidarity.13References.15Statistical Appendix.17A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDiiiREGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaIN

8、TERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 2024ivBOXBox 1.Breaking Down the African Premium.4Box Figure 1.1.Cte dIvoire:Yield to Maturity at Issuance,201424.4Box Figure 1.2.Regression Estimates,African Premium.4FIGURESFigure 1.Sovereign Spreads,202224.2Figure 2.External Funding Flows of the Public Sector.3Figu

9、re 3.Change in Banks Holdings of Government Debt and Private Sector Credit.3Figure 4.Real Prime Lending Rates,202124.5Figure 5.Change in GDP Growth Between 2023 and 2024.6Figure 6.Real GDP Per Capita,200025.7Figure 7.Geopolitical Risk and Shipping Costs,201623.7Figure 8.Fiscal Balance Including Gran

10、ts,201925.9Figure 9.Median Inflation,December 2021February 2024.10Figure 10.Real Monetary Policy Rates,February 2024.11Figure 11.Actual versus Target Inflation,February 2024 .11Figure 12.Exchange Rates,January 2023February 2024.12Figure 13.Stock Exchange Market Capitalization,2023.13Figure 14.Sub-Sa

11、haran African Low-Income Countries:Gross External Financing Needs,202028.14TABLESSub-Saharan Africa:Member Countries of Groupings.viSub-Saharan Africa:Member Countries of Regional Groupings.viSub-Saharan Africa:Country Abbreviations.viiSTATISTICAL APPENDIX TABLESSA1.Real GDP Growth and Consumer Pric

12、es,Average.19SA2.Overall Fiscal Balance,Including Grants and Government Debt.20SA3.Broad Money and External Current Account,Including Grants.21SA4.External Debt,Official Debt,Debtor Based and Reserves.22AcknowledgmentsThe April 2024 issue of the Regional Economic Outlook:Sub-Saharan Africa was prepa

13、red under the supervision of Wenjie Chen,Luc Eyraud,and Catherine Pattillo.Regional Economic Outlook:Sub-Saharan AfricaA Tepid and Pricey Recovery,was prepared by Adrian Alter(team lead),Cleary Haines,Grace Li,and Thibault Lemaire,under the guidance of Wenjie Chen.Three analytical notes accompany th

14、e April 2024 Regional Economic Outlook:Sub-Saharan Africa:“Cutting Budget Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa without Undermining Development”was prepared by Arthur Sode(team lead)and Jimena Montoya,under the guidance of Antonio David.“Digging for Opportunity:Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africas Wealth in Crit

15、ical Minerals”was prepared by Paola Ganum,Athene Laws,Hamza Mighri,Balazs Stadler,Nico Valckx(team lead),and David Zeledon,under the guidance of Wenjie Chen.“Building Tomorrows Workforce:Education,Opportunity,and Africas Demographic Dividend”was prepared by Michele Fornino(team lead),under the guida

16、nce of Andrew Tiffin.Charlotte Vazquez was responsible for document production.The editing and production were overseen by Cheryl Toksoz of the Communications Department.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDvCountry GroupingsThe West African Economic and Monetary Union(WA

17、EMU)Economic and Monetary Community of Central African States (CEMAC)Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)East African Community (*EAC-5)Southern African Development Community (SADC)Southern African Customs Union (SACU)Economic Communityof West African States1 (ECOWAS)BeninBurkina F

18、asoCte dIvoireGuinea-BissauMaliNigerSenegalTogoCameroon Central African RepublicChadCongo,Republic ofEquatorial GuineaGabonBurundiComorosCongo,Democratic Republic of theEritreaEswatiniEthiopia KenyaMadagascar Malawi Mauritius Rwanda Seychelles Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe*BurundiCongo,Democratic Republic

19、of the*Kenya*Rwanda SomaliaSouth Sudan*Tanzania*UgandaAngolaBotswanaComorosCongo,Democratic Republic of theEswatiniLesothoMadagascarMalawiMauritiusMozambiqueNamibiaSeychellesSouth AfricaTanzaniaZambiaZimbabweBotswanaEswatiniLesothoNamibiaSouth AfricaBeninBurkina FasoCabo VerdeCte dIvoireGambia,The G

20、hanaGuineaGuinea-BissauLiberiaMaliNigerNigeriaSenegalSierra LeoneTogoSub-Saharan Africa:Member Countries of Regional GroupingsSub-Saharan Africa:Member Countries of GroupingsOil ExportersOther Resource-Intensive CountriesNon-Resource-Intensive CountriesMiddle-Income CountriesLow-Income CountriesCoun

21、tries in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations1 AngolaCameroonChadCongo,Republic of Equatorial Guinea GabonNigeriaSouth SudanBotswanaBurkina FasoCentral African RepublicCongo,Democratic Republic of theEritreaGhanaGuineaLiberiaMaliNamibiaNigerSierra LeoneSouth AfricaTanzaniaZambiaZimbabweBeninBuru

22、ndiCabo VerdeComorosCte dIvoireEswatiniEthiopiaGambia,TheGuinea-BissauKenyaLesothoMadagascarMalawiMauritiusMozambiqueRwandaSo Tom and PrncipeSenegalSeychellesTogoUgandaAngolaBeninBotswanaCabo VerdeCameroonComorosCongo,Republic of Cte dIvoireEquatorial GuineaEswatiniGabonGhanaKenyaLesothoMauritiusNam

23、ibiaNigeriaSo Tom and Prncipe SenegalSeychellesSouth AfricaZambiaBurkina FasoBurundiCentral African RepublicChadCongo,Democratic Republic of theEritreaEthiopiaGambia,TheGuineaGuinea-BissauLiberiaMadagascarMalawiMaliMozambiqueNigerRwandaSierra LeoneSouth SudanTanzaniaTogoUgandaZimbabweBurkina FasoBur

24、undiCameroonCentral African Republic ChadComorosCongo,Democratic Republic of theCongo,Republic ofEritreaEthiopiaGuinea-BissauMaliMozambiqueNigerNigeria So Tom and PrncipeSouth SudanZimbabwe1 Fragile and conflict-affected situations as classified by the World Bank,Classification of Fragile and Confli

25、ct-Affected Situations,FY2024.1 Burkina Faso,Mali,and Niger announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African Sates(ECOWAS)on January 28,2024.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 2024viAssumptions and ConventionsThe following conventions a

26、re used in this publication:In tables,ellipsis points(.)indicate“not available,”and 0 or 0.0 indicates“zero”or“negligible.”Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.An en dash()between years or months(for example,201112 or JanuaryJune)indicates the years

27、or months covered,including the beginning and ending years or months;a slash or virgule(/)between years or months(for example,2011/12)indicates a fiscal or financial year,as does the abbreviation FY (for example,FY 2012).“Billion”means a thousand million;“trillion”means a thousand billion.“Basis poi

28、nts(bps)”refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point(for example,25 basis points are equivalent to of 1 percentage point).As used in this publication,the term“country”does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice.As used here,the te

29、rm also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and any other information shown on the maps do not imply,on the part of the International Monetary Fund,any judgment on t

30、he legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Sub-Saharan Africa:Country AbbreviationsAGOAngolaCPVCabo VerdeLSOLesothoSLESierra LeoneBDIBurundiERIEritreaMDGMadagascarSSDSouth SudanBENBeninETHEthiopiaMLIMaliSTPSo Tom and PrncipeBFABurkina FasoGABGabonMOZMozambiq

31、ueSWZEswatiniBWABotswanaGHAGhanaMUSMauritiusSYCSeychellesCAFCentral African RepublicGINGuineaMWIMalawiTCDChadCIVCte dIvoireGMBGambia,TheNAMNamibiaTGOTogoCMRCameroonGNBGuinea-BissauNERNigerTZATanzaniaCODCongo,Democratic Republic of theGNQEquatorial GuineaNGANigeriaUGAUgandaCOGCongo,Republic ofKENKeny

32、aRWARwandaZAFSouth AfricaCOMComorosLBRLiberiaSENSenegalZMBZambiaZWEZimbabweA TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDviiExecutive SummaryAfter four turbulent years,sub-Saharan Africa appears finally on the mend.With the easing of global financial conditions,Cte dIvoire,Benin,a

33、nd Kenya issued Eurobonds earlier this year,ending a two-year hiatus from international markets for the region.Public debt ratios have broadly stabilized,and some capital flows are making a tentative comeback.The overall regional outlook is gradually improving,with economic activity tepidly picking

34、up.Growth will rise from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024,with nearly two thirds of countries anticipating higher growth.Economic recovery is expected to continue beyond this year,with growth projected to reach 4.0 percent in 2025.In parallel,median inflation has almost halved from nearly

35、10 percent in November 2022 to about 6 percent in February 2024.However,not all is rosy,and the funding squeeze continues.The regions governments continue to grapple with financing shortages,high borrowing costs,and rollover risks amid persistently low domestic resource mobilization.Significant debt

36、 repayments are looming this year and next.The financing challenges are forcing countries to cut essential public spending and redirect development funds to debt service,thereby endangering growth prospects for future generations.The funding squeeze partly reflects a reduction in the regions traditi

37、onal funding sources,particularly Official Development Assistance.Gross external financing needs for low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to exceed$70 billion annually(6 percent of GDP)over the next four years.As concessional sources have become scarcer,governments are seeking al

38、ternative financing options,which are typically associated with higher charges,less transparency,and shorter maturities.The cost of borrowingboth domestic and externalhas increased and continues to be elevated for many.In 2023,government interest payments took up 12 percent of its revenues(excluding

39、 grants)for the median sub-Saharan African country,more than doubling from a decade ago.The private sector has also started to feel the pinch from higher interest rates.Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.The region continues to be more vulnerable to global shocks,particularly from we

40、aker external demand and elevated geopolitical risks.Moreover,countries in sub-Saharan Africa face rising political instability and frequent climate shocks.The region faces a critical year with 18 national elections in 2024.Similarly,climate shocks are becoming more frequent and widespread,including

41、 droughts of unparalleled severity.Amid current financing constraints and cascading shocks,the international community needs to play a more active role in assisting the region.In addition,three policy priorities can help countries adapt to these challenges:Improved public finances focused on revenue

42、 mobilization is still the first line of defense against a world of higher borrowing costs and narrowing funding options.But top priority should be given to minimizing the impact of fiscal consolidation on lives and livelihoods.On the financing side,there is still a pressing need for concessional fu

43、nding.Monetary policy should remain focused on ensuring price stability.As inflation eases,more countries will have space to cut interest rates.Enhanced coordination between fiscal,monetary,and exchange rate policies is crucial.Implementing structural reforms such as expediting trade integration and

44、 improving the business environment to attract more foreign direct investments could diversify funding sources and the economy.Sub-Saharan African countries will need more support from the international community,with multilateral and regional development banks potentially exploring options to furth

45、er leverage their balance sheets to support a more inclusive,sustainable,and prosperous future.Regional Economic Outlook Notes.A series of analytical notes explore(1)strategies for implementing necessary fiscal adjustment with minimal negative impact on socio-economic conditions“Cutting Budget Defic

46、its in Sub-Saharan Africa without Undermining Development”;(2)ways to capitalize on regions abundant critical mineral resources“Digging for Opportunity:Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africas Wealth in Critical Minerals”,and(3)the importance of stepping up investment in education“Building Tomorrows Workforce

47、:Education,Opportunity,and Africas Demographic Dividend”.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 2024viiiAfter four turbulent years,the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is gradually improving.Growth will rise from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024,with nea

48、rly two thirds of countries anticipating higher growth.Economic recovery is expected to continue beyond this year,with growth projections reaching 4.0 percent in 2025.Additionally,inflation has almost halved,public debt ratios have broadly stabilized,and several countries have issued Eurobonds this

49、year,ending a two-year hiatus from international markets.However,not all is favorable.The funding squeeze persists as the regions governments continue to grapple with financing shortages,high borrowing costs,and impending debt repayments.Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.The region

50、continues to be more vulnerable to global external shocks,as well as the threat of rising political instability,and frequent climate events.Three policy priorities can help countries adapt to these challenges:improving public finances without undermining development;monetary policy focused on ensuri

51、ng price stability;and implementing structural reforms to diversify funding sources and economies.Amid these challenges,sub-Saharan African countries will need additional support from the international community to develop a more inclusive,sustainable,and prosperous future.A Slow ClimbThe region has

52、 recovered its footing,but governments are still grapplingwith the funding squeeze,high borrowing costs,and rollover risks.Adapting to a world with tightfinancing conditions and moreprone to shocks requires:Improving public finances withoutundermining developmentMaintaining price stabilitywhile supp

53、orting growthDiversifying financing sourcesand growth opportunitiesInternationalsupport&solidarity2024:A tepidrebound3.8%2025:Continuedrecovery4.0%A Tepid and Pricey RecoveryA TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND1Recent Development:Global Markets Reopen at a Steep Price Em

54、erging from four turbulent years,sub-Saharan Africa appears on the mend At last,the light on the horizon for sub-Saharan Africas economy seems to shine a little brighter.The regions nearly two-year hiatus from international capital markets ended with Cte dIvoires successful Eurobond issuance in Janu

55、ary 2024.Benin and Kenya quickly followed suit,capitalizing on the renewed global appetite for African debt.This resurgence is further highlighted by the narrowing in sovereign spreads,following the easing of global financial conditions(Figure 1).Similarly,the region has seen a continued improve-men

56、t in macroeconomic imbalances,a sign of optimism highlighted in the October 2023 Regional Economic Outlook:Sub-Saharan AfricaLight on the Horizon?In particular,inflation has come down significantly,with the median headline inflation dropping to about 6 percent in February 2024 from a peak of nearly

57、10 percent in November 2022,in part reflecting the effects of monetary policy tightening across many countries.On the fiscal situation,the authorities have continued consolidation efforts,with the median fiscal deficit narrowing to 4.0 percent of GDP in 2023,the lowest since the onset of the pandemi

58、c.Consequently,public debt ratios have largely stabilized at around 60 percent of GDP in 2023 and are projected to ease this year.There are also tentative signs that select capital flows are making a comeback to the region.After several years of sluggish inflows,foreign direct investment(FDI)into th

59、e region rose to 2.0 percent of GDP in 2023,indicating a continuation of the post-pandemic recovery.Even more promising is the increase in the number of announced FDI projects in sub-Saharan Africa,which increased by about 10 percent in 2023 from the previous year.but the regions governments are sti

60、ll grappling with a shortage in financing,high borrowing costs,and rollover risks,Unfortunately,not all is rosy.The region is still facing an acute funding squeeze,a situation highlighted in previous reports.Debt service obligations continue to swell.Preliminary data from last year show a decrease i

61、n external financing sources for the public sector coupled with an uptick in external debt service,leading to the lowest net external flows for the regions governments since the Global Financial Crisis(Figure 2).In 2023,government interest payments took up 12 percent of its revenues(excluding grants

62、)for the median sub-Saharan African country,more than doubling from a decade ago.Significant external debt repayments are looming this year and next,including$5.9 billion on Eurobonds in 2024,increasing to$6.2billion in 2025,along with significant bank loan repaymentssyndicated and bilateralover the

63、 next two years.This funding squeeze partly reflects a reduction in the regions traditional funding sources,particularly Official Development Assistance(ODA)a critical support for most countries in the regionwhich has steadily declined as a percentage of GDP over the past 15 years.This reduction is

64、compounded by the redirection of aid towards conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.Moreover,Chinas official bilateral lending is also significantly lower than its peak in 2016.As traditional funding sources have declined over time,governments have sought alternative funding options.Increased integration in

65、international debt markets and deepening of local financial markets have made it easier to contract more commercial debt,both domestically and externally,on non-concessional terms.Figure 1.Sovereign Spreads,202224(Basis points,simple average)2505007501,000Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24Sub-Saharan Africa EMBIGLa

66、st issuance before hiatusReturn to Eurobond marketSources:Bloomberg Finance,L.P.;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Sub-Saharan Africa includes Angola,Cte dIvoire,Gabon,Ghana,Kenya,Mozambique,Namibia,Nigeria,Senegal,South Africa.EMBIG=Emerging Market Bond Index Global.Data up to March 29,2024.REGIONAL

67、ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 20242This significant financial market progress has provided useful access to financing,but they often come with higher costs.In the case of syndicated and bilateral loans from international commercial banks,they are often associate

68、d with shorter repayment periods,higher charges,less transparency,and,in some cases,tied to collateral pledges,adding to future fiscal burdens and potentially elevating fiscal risks.Even for countries that have re-accessed international markets,borrowing costs remain high.As of end-March,the average

69、 yield on the regions Eurobonds for non-distressed countries was close to 11 percent,significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 7.3 percent,making it still unaffordable for many.Kenya,for instance,issued a bond at 10.4 percent yield to maturity,significantly above the 6.9 percent yield at

70、 issuance of its bond due this year.This allowed the country to clear most of its immediate debt and push back repayments by seven years.Similarly,Cte dIvoire faced its highest borrowing cost in a decade with a USD-denominated Eurobond.1 Sub-Saharan African sovereign issuers have generally been payi

71、ng higher yields than equally-risky issuers in other regions,although the often-referenced“African premium”appears to be relatively small.Furthermore,this premium essentially disappears when comparing sub-Saharan African state-owned enterprises(SOEs)and corporates with similar issuers elsewhere(see

72、Box 1).with the private sector also feeling the pinch.In recent years,local banks have shown a stronger preference to lend to the government than to the private sector.Before the pandemic,banks exposure to the private sector increased much faster than their exposure to the government,highlighting th

73、e regions progress in financial development.In contrast,since the pandemic,private sector credit as a share of bank assets remained broadly unchanged,while lending to the government has seen continued increase(Figure 3).This increasing bank-sovereign nexus could pose financial stability risks in som

74、e countries(for example,the Central African Economic and Monetary Community CEMAC),stemming from issues like maturity mismatches,asset concentration,and illiquidity.Relatedly,firms borrowing costs have increased.Domestically,across over half of the regions countries with available data,the median pr

75、ime lending rate more than doubled,in real terms,by the end of 2023 from about 2.5 percent a year earlier(Figure 4).The prime lending rate is usually an indicator of domestic borrowing 1 This bond issuance includes two tranches:1)a$1.5 billion traditional Eurobond with a 13-year maturity at a yield

76、of 8.5 percent;and 2)a$1.1billion ESG bond with a 9-year maturity at 7.875 percent.Considering the USD-EUR hedges that were simultaneously secured,the effective coupon rates in euro terms are 6.85 percent and 6.3 percent,respectively.Following the Eurobond issuance,Cte dIvoire was upgraded to Ba2 st

77、able outlook by Moodys.Figure 2.External Funding Flows of the Public Sector(Percent of GDP)420246Avg.201019Avg.2020222023Net external flowsODAChinaIMF/WBBonds/loansInterestPrincipal Sources:Dealogic;IMF,World Economic Outlook database;World Bank,International Debt Statistics database.;and IMF staff

78、calculations.Note:Excludes South Africa due to data constraints;but tentative estimates suggest that adding the country to the sample would not change the overall results.Data for 2023 are estimates.Bonds pertain to Eurobonds issued before May 2022.Loans cover both syndicated and bilateral bank loan

79、s.Principal and interest denote Sources:Dealogic;IMF,World Economic Outlook database;World Bank,International Debt Statistics database,and IMF staff calculations.Note:Excludes South Africa due to data constraints;but tentative estimates suggest that adding the country to the sample would not change

80、the overall results.Data for 2023 are estimates.“Bonds”pertain to Eurobonds issued before May 2022.“Loans”cover both syndicated and bilateral bank loans.Principal and interest denote payments on public and publicly guaranteed debt.Figure 3.Change in Banks Holdings of Government Debt and Private Sect

81、or Credit(Percent of assets,average)02468Pre-pandemic 201519Post-pandemic 202023PublicPrivateFigure 3.Change in Banks Holdings of Government Debt and Private Sector Credit(Percent of assets;average)Sources:IMF,International Financial Statistics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Data as of December 202

82、3 or latest available.Sources:IMF,International Financial Statistics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Data as of December 2023 or latest available.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND3Box 1.Breaking Down the African PremiumCountries from sub-Saharan Africa with market acc

83、ess have historically faced somewhat higher borrowing costs compared to similar issuers.For instance,Cte dIvoires(CIV)$2.6 billion Eurobond issuance in January 2024(at a weighted-average spread of about 400 basis points)was its most expensive to date,although recent surges in costs can largely be at

84、tributed to the increase in US bond yields(Figure 1.1).CIVs spread at issuance was 50 basis points above the pricing of a similar bond from a developing country outside sub-Saharan Africa,with the same rating.This raises the question of whether there could be an“African premium”defined as the extra

85、cost African countries pay when borrowing from international markets that cannot be explained by differences in macroeconomic fundamentals.However,the analysis in this box finds that the“African premium”is quite modest for sovereigns,and virtually non-existent for corporations and SOEs.By controllin

86、g for issuer-specific fundamentals(proxied by the issuers credit rating),global factors,and bond characteristics,the premium for sovereign Eurobond issuances ranges between 53 and 88 basis points,with a midpoint of 70 basis points(Figure 1.2).This gap widens during global shocks to 120 basis points,

87、underscoring potential constraints in terms of investor demand and liquidity.However,when focusing on Eurobonds issued by sub-Saharan African SOEs and corporations,this premium disappears,indicating no significant borrowing cost differences from counterparts outside the region.One plausible explanat

88、ion is that most sub-Saharan African corporations issuing Eurobonds,relative to sovereigns,are generally rated higher,as investment grade,a reflection of better governance and management standards and healthier balance sheets.Notably,this box does not address the question of the objectivity of credi

89、t ratings,which are taken as given in the analysis.1 The ratings debate remains inconclusive,with data availability being one of the main obstacles.Moving away from ratings,Gbohoui and others(2023)and Presbitero and others(2016)have found that,in the secondary market,the disparities in bond spreads

90、between sub-Saharan African countries and their counterparts elsewhere are primarily due to weaker economic and political fundamentals,including the risk of conflict,default history,and structural issues.Specifically,challenges related to governance,transparency,and public finance management in sub-

91、Saharan Africa are significant factors that contribute to higher spreads.This box was prepared by Adrian Alter.1 For more details about this debate see Griffith-Jones and Kraemer(2021)and Fofack(2021),which discuss potential perception biases by credit rating agencies in the context of Africa and EM

92、DEs,more generally.Box Figure 1.1.Cte dIvoire:Yield to Maturity at Issuance,201424(Percent,annual)014 021222324329 bps418 bpsCIV yield-to-maturityUS 10-year yieldCIV historical average yieldFigure 1.1.Cte dIvoire:Yield to Maturity at Issuance,201424(Percent,annual)Sources:Bloom

93、berg Finance,L.P.;and IMF staff calculations.Note:The average intrayear 10-year bond yield is used for the United States,which is the proxy for the risk-free rate with similar maturity as CIV issuances.BPS=basis points.CIV=Cte dIvoire.Sources:Bloomberg Finance,L.P.;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Th

94、e average intrayear 10-year bond yield is used for the United States,which is the proxy for the risk-free rate with similar maturity as Cte dIvoire issuances.bps=basis points;CIV=Cte dIvoire.Box Figure 1.2.Regression Estimates,African Premium(Basis points)020406080100120140SovereignsState-ownedenter

95、prisesCorporatesNon-crisisCrisisOver the cycleSources:Dealogic;and IMF staff calculations.Note:The coefficients depicted in this figure are from pooled regressions with time(quarter)and rating fixed effects,where the dependent variable is the yield to maturity for each Eurobond issuance.The set of c

96、ountries considered are all emerging markets and developing ecoonomies.Other controls include tranche size and maturity and a Group of Twenty(G20)dummy.Robust standard errors are utilized.Crisis years refer to 200809,201516,and 202021.Sample period:200624.Figure 1.2.Sub-Saharan Africa:Regression Est

97、imates,African Premium(Basis points)Sources:Dealogic;and IMF staff calculations.Note:The coefficients depicted in this figure are from pooled regressions with time(quarter)and rating fixed effects,where the dependent variable is the yield to maturity for each Eurobond issuance.The set of countries c

98、onsidered are all emerging markets and developing ecoonomies.Other controls include tranche size and maturity and a Group of Twenty(G20)dummy.Robust standard errors are utilized.Crisis years refer to 200809,201516,and 202021.Sample period:200624.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATION

99、AL MONETARY FUND APRIL 20244costs for top-rated corporations,thus,interest rates for loans to smaller enterprises are likely even higher,reflecting lower access to financial services,lack of strong collateral,and greater default risks.In parallel,firms with international market access have borrowed

100、more from abroad,increasing their leverage and borrowing costs.For instance,the median corporate spread for syndicated loans(over the respective benchmark)increased from 350 basis points prior to the pandemic to 580 basis points in 2023.Going forward,a prolonged period of elevated interest rates cou

101、ld affect corporate credit quality by raising borrowing costs,and impairing firms profitability and their capacity to repay debt.Moreover,several countries are facing challenges like foreign currency shortages or import restrictions (for example,Angola,Chad,Ethiopia,Kenya,and Nigeria)which have comp

102、licated business operations.This comes at a time when companies in the region have just turned a leaf and returned to pre-pandemic profitability.The ability of countries to respond to current challenges is further constrained by rising uncertainty and shocks.These financing challenges have forced ma

103、ny countries to reduce essential public spending,including capital investments,and diverted resources critical for development to debt service.The liquidity squeeze is imperiling the growth prospects of the regions future generations,as funds are sorely lacking to address the vast develop-ment needs

104、,intensified by the pandemics scarring effects.For instance,nearly 3 in 10 school-age children are not attending primary and secondary education.Of those who do enroll in primary school,only about 65 percent complete it,compared to the global average of 87 percent(Analytical Note“Building Tomorrows

105、Workforce:Education,Opportunity,and Africas Demographic Dividend”).Beyond health,education,and infrastructure,food insecurity remains a key challenge in the region.As of 2023,an estimated 140 million people across the region,including a significant number in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and

106、Nigeria,are grappling with acute food insecurity,with policymakers facing constraints in their ability to respond effectively given limited fiscal space.Meanwhile,the region also faces rising political instability and climate shocks that hinder growth,strain limited resources,and could increase soci

107、al tensions:Political instability is intensifying the challenges in sub-Saharan Africa,dampening growth through height-ened policy uncertainty and diminished investor confidence.Burkina Faso,Mali,and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS)in January 2024,following prolonged

108、political discord stemming from recent coups.This move exacerbates uncertainty and geoeconomic fragmentation in a region already struggling with fragility,poverty,and food insecurity.Sub-Saharan Africa faces a critical year in 2024 with 18 national elections,including presidential,scheduled mainly i

109、n its western and southern parts.The delay in the presidential election in Senegal created further political uncertainties in the region.More generally,political instability surrounding elections has been found to not only incur macroeconomic costs but also trigger longer-term fiscal adjustments at

110、the expense of public investment(Ebeke and ler 2013).Additionally,it also poses risks of policy reversals(Gaspar,Gupta,and Mulas-Granados 2017).Climate change is also exacerbating sub-Saharan Africas struggles,weighing on agricultural yields and labor productivity in an already-vulnerable region.Las

111、t year,the hottest on record globally,hit the region hard.Malawi and Mozambique faced devastating cyclones,while long and severe droughts in the Horn of Africa gave way to sudden flash floods in November.South Sudans prolonged floods have aggravated food scarcity.Parts of southern Africa are now suf

112、fering from an unprecedented drought,with the early months of 2024 a crucial period for cultivating cropsrecording the lowest levels of rainfall in the last 40 years.In central Africa,Figure 4.Real Prime Lending Rates,202124(Percent,median)6420246810Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Interqua

113、rtile rangeFigure 4.Real Prime Lending Rates,202124(Percent,median)Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND5the Congo Basin has been experiencing its worst flooding in nearl

114、y six decades.These weather extremes take a heavy toll on human lives and stymie development,stretching government resources thin and leaving the most vulnerable to suffer disproportionately.The Outlook:A Long-Awaited but Tepid Rebound Despite a projected growth rebound this year,the upturn is modes

115、t,and the recovery remains markedly uneven,After two years of slow growth,the regions outlook is mildly improving as a whole,with growth expected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024.Two thirds of countries in the region anticipate faster growth compared to 2023,with a median grow

116、th acceleration of 0.6 percentage point.The growth pick-up in 2024 varies significantly across country groups,primarily driven by a rebound among oil exporters,excluding Nigeria,with growth for that group projected to increase by 1.5 percentage points to 3.1 percent(Figure 5).Meanwhile,diversified e

117、conomies,which have been enjoying persistently high growth rates,are expected to see their growth remain unchanged.For 2024,growth rates also vary widely by country.South Africas growth is projected at only 0.9 percent for 2024,hampered by persistent energy shortages and logistical challenges at por

118、ts and railways.Nigeria is expected to grow by 3.3 percent in 2024,a slight improvement from 2023,supported by its oil sector.Notably,Niger and Senegal are among the regions fastest-growing economies,projected to expand by 10.4 percent and 8.3 percent in 2024,respectively,thanks to oil and gas proje

119、cts coming online.Overall,the growth divergence between resource-intensive and non-resource-intensive(diversified)countries is expected to persista long-standing pattern,becoming particularly entrenched since the commodity-price shock of 2015,with the former group of countries projected to grow at 3

120、.0 percent,and the latter at 5.7 percent in 2024.In 2025,sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.0 percent,with private consumption and investment continuing their recovery.In the baseline,other frontier markets beyond Cte dIvoire,Benin,and Kenya are expected to start issuing in 2025 or later.T

121、his will help ease the funding squeeze in those countries and support the recovery.In the medium term,the regions growth is anticipated to stabilize at around 4.3 percent,with non-resource-intensive countries expected to grow almost twice as fast as their resource-heavy counterparts,6.2 percent comp

122、ared to 3.5 percent.and when accounting for population growth,the income gap with the rest of the world is widening.The growth pick-up masks another critical concern:the stalled progress in per capita income convergence,a challenge magnified by the regions unparalleled population growth.From 2000 to

123、 2024,sub-Saharan Africas real income per person grew by almost 75 percent,outstripping that of advanced economies,who only saw a 35 percent increase.Nonetheless,this achievement dims when comparing to emerging market and developing economies(EMDEs)outside the region,where real income per person mor

124、e than tripled over the same period(Figure 6).More worryingly,since 2014,growth in sub-Saharan Africas real per capita income has seen a marked slowdown,diverging further away from other EMDEs.Figure 5.Change in GDP Growth Between 2023 and 2024(Percentage points)Figure 5.Change in GDP Growth from Be

125、tween 2023 and 2024(Percentage points)Sources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff calculations.Non-resource-intensive countriesOther resource-intensivecountriesNigeriaOil exporters excluding NigeriaSub-Saharan Africa0.50.00.51.01.5Sources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF sta

126、ff calculations.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 20246The expected rebound is subject to significant risks and uncertainties.Importantly,the growth pick-up is linked intricately to domestic and global developments.Domestically,the economic outlook hinges o

127、n the effectiveness of ongoing domestic reforms.In South Africa,efforts to mitigate the energy crisis through improved electricity supply are underway but electoral uncertainties loom large which could derail the reform momentum.Nigeria is developing a comprehensive private sector-led growth agenda,

128、by addressing long-standing distortions in the foreign exchange market,boosting oil production,and enhancing revenue mobilization.With the likelihood of a hard landing receding as adverse supply shocks unwind,risks to the global outlook are broadly balanced.There is scope for further upside surprise

129、s to global growth,including faster disinflation,and faster economic recovery in China.However,risks to the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa seem more tilted to the downside,with the following global shocks particularly relevant for the region:2 A faltering global economy.In a downside scenario where

130、major economies like China and the European Union underperform,global growth would suffer a substantial and lasting slowdown.This external demand shock would have notable repercussions for sub-Saharan Africa,affecting the region through several channels including lower export demand,exchange rate de

131、preciation,a decline in remittances sent by the African diaspora,and lower commodity prices.As a result,growth in sub-Saharan Africa would be about 1 percentage point lower than in the baseline for 2024 and 2025,with oil exporters being hit the hardest.However,with declining commodity prices and qui

132、cker disinflation,monetary policies would relax more rapidly,setting the stage for a modest growth recovery in 2026.Elevated geopolitical risks.An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would result in further disruptions to supply chains,transportation routes,and commodity production,ultimat

133、ely driving up the prices of commodities and shipping costs(Figure7).Relative to the baseline,oil and gas prices would be(on average)15 percent higher in both 2024 and 2025.At the same time,prices of agricultural goods and processed food would rise.Model simulations suggest that the overall negative

134、 growth impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be relatively muted.However,countries in the region that are less reliant on natural resources would expe-rience a significant downturn,with growth lower by about 1.3 percentage points in 2024.Importantly,inflation would remain elevated for a longer period

135、across the region,deviating upward from baseline projections by about 1.9 and 1.5 percentage points in 2024 and 2025,respectively.2 The two downside risk scenarios are consistent with the global risk scenarios presented in the April 2024 World Economic Outlook report.To quantify the downside scenari

136、os,model simulations are presented in this section based on the AFRMODa module part of the flexible system of global models developed by Andrle and others(2015)which is one of the IMFs workhorse macroeconomic models.Figure 6.Real GDP Per Capita,200025(Index,2000=100)200000708091011121314P

137、021222324 Proj.25 Proj.Figure 6.Real GDP Per Capita,200025(Index,2000=100)Sources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:The series show the evolution of GDP per capita in constant local currency.Country group composites are calculated as the arithmetic averag

138、e of data for individual countries weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total group GDP.SSA=sub-Saharan Africa.8003303802000510152025 Proj.Resource-intensive countriesNon-resource-intensive countries Other emerging market and developing economiesSub-Saharan Afri

139、caSources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:The series show the evolution of GDP per capita in constant local currency.Country group composites are calculated as the arithmetic average of data for individual countries weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parit

140、y as a share of total group GDP.Figure 7.Geopolitical Risk and Shipping Costs,201623(Index,2022=100)00500Dec-15Dec-17Dec-19Dec-21Dec-23Baltic dry indexGeopolitical Figure 7.Geopolitical Risk and Shipping Costs,201623(Index,2022=100)Sources:Caldara and Iacoviello(2022);Haver Analytics;and

141、IMF staff calculations.Note:Caldara and Iacoviello(2022)data downloaded on February 16,2024,from https:/ and Iacoviello(2022);Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Caldara and Iacoviello(2022)data downloaded on February 16,2024,from https:/ TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL

142、 MONETARY FUND7On top of the global economic risks,sub-Saharan Africa faces increasing region-specific risks(see also IMF 2024).The risk of social and political tensions has increased significantly because of mounting geopolitical fragmenta-tion,coups dtat,and a cost-of-living crisis that has left m

143、any behind,worsened by the effects of climate change.Rising social tensions and many upcoming elections raise concerns that efforts to reforms may slow,undercutting momentum.In particular,growth may be adversely affected by the following:Heightened security risks:The region now has one of the highes

144、t rates of terrorist attacks worldwide.3 Social tensions and the prospect of further violence remain elevated in Ethiopia despite a peace deal.The security situation also remains challenging in several other countries including Burkina Faso,Chad,the Democratic Republic of the Congo,Mali,Mozambique,a

145、nd Nigeria.Moreover,the intensifying conflict in Sudan could further harm the economy and humanitarian conditions in nearby countries.As of March 2024,the UNHCR has reported that since the conflict began in April 2023,almost 1.3 million refugees,asylum-seekers,and returnees have arrived in South Sud

146、an,Chad,Ethiopia,and the Central African Republic.Beyond the tragic human losses and disruptions to economic activity,violence and conflict further strain tight budgets,including because of the surge in security spending.Climate risks:If the drought in southern Africa continues,the negative impact o

147、n the 2024 economic outlook could be significant in some countries,and the drought would also put pressures on external balances and public spending.Moreover,this could exacerbate the food insecurity situation in sub-Saharan Africa,posing a major humanitarian challenge and weighing on productivity a

148、nd economic prospects.Policy Priorities for Adapting to High Borrowing Costs in a Shock-Prone World Although the region is finally showing signs of recovery,many countries face high borrowing costs and continue to grapple with tight financing constraints and ongoing debt vulnerabilities.These diffic

149、ulties are compounded by a more shock-prone world.4 Adapting to these challenges requires a resolute package of strong domestic reforms and external support.Domestically,there is a need for continued tightening in fiscal policy,while minimizing the harm on economic development.Monetary policy should

150、 remain focused on ensuring price stability,while complementing fiscal efforts and supporting growth provided inflation is easing.Implementing structural reforms targeted at broadening funding sources and diversifying the economy will be crucial to adapt to a high interest rate environment and build

151、 resilience.Recognizing that these reforms will take time to deliver results,there is pressing need for countries to mobilize funding at lower costs,including from international partners.Fiscal policy:improving public finances without undermining developmentOver the past decade,the fiscal position o

152、f many sub-Saharan African countries has deteriorated,a trend exacerbated by repeated shocks and the ensuing demand for fiscal support.This has led to heightened debt vulnerabilities across the region.In response,policy efforts are now focusing on rebuilding fiscal buffers and reducing debt to stren

153、gthen borrowing capacity.Some countries face more urgency for fiscal tightening due to an acute funding squeeze,driven by rising debt service costs and limited access to financing.Together with currency depreciations,this has intensified funding constraints.For instance,Ethiopia became the latest co

154、untry in the region to default,failing to make a Eurobond coupon payment in December 2023.Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have started adjusting their public finances.About two thirds of countries have already improved their fiscal balances in 2023,with expectations for fiscal deficits to fall

155、from a median of 5.2percent of GDP in 2022 to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2024(Figure 8).Although the approaches to fiscal adjustment 3 Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for nearly 50 percent of global terrorism deaths in 2022(Vision of Humanitys Global Terrorism Index 2022 report).4 See also Box 1.1 in the Ap

156、ril 2024 World Economic Outlook.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 20248vary by country,about 40 percent of those undergoing consolidation are frontloading their efforts.For instance,among the group of countries reducing their fiscal deficit over a three-yea

157、r period from 2022 to 2025,the median country undertook almost half of the total adjustment in the initial year,2023.In terms of composition,the ongoing fiscal adjustment efforts are roughly evenly split:nearly half are focused on increasing revenue,whereas the other half consist in reducing spendin

158、g.On the latter,about half of the countries in consolidation,such as Botswana,Cameroon,and Kenya,are focusing on preserving their investment-to-GDP ratios while cutting current spending.The rest intends to reduce capital expen-ditures by an average of 1.4 percent of GDP,which may slow future growth.

159、With rising needs,limited financing options,and borrowing costs remaining high,fiscal tightening in sub-Saharan Africa has to be carried out in a way that meets the country-specific needs while minimizing harm to its economy and people.This will require,in particular:Boosting revenues.To implement t

160、he necessary adjustment,while protecting economic growth and social welfare,it is key to focus on boosting revenues rather than cutting essential spending(although there is also scope to improve expenditure efficiency as discussed further below).Emphasizing tax increases offers a way to raise more f

161、unds without hurting investments in key areas like infrastructure,health,and education.The region faces a tax gap,defined as the difference between the levels of tax potential and tax collection,estimated at around 5 percent of GDP(Analytical Note“Cutting Budget Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa Withou

162、t Undermining Development”).This suggests a big opportunity to increase revenue through smarter tax policies and better administration.Simplifying the tax system,widening the tax base,improving tax compliance,and using tech-nology can make tax collection more effective.The success of electronic sale

163、s registers in Ethiopia is a good example of how technology can help.Creating a medium-term revenue strategy that outlines both policy changes and administrative improvements can guide reforms,making them easier to implement and more credible.With technical support from the IMF,countries such as Ben

164、in,Cameroon,Ethiopia,Rwanda,and Togo are developing these strategies,while Kenya,Liberia,Senegal,and Uganda are already putting them into action.An additional benefit from higher revenues is that it boosts a countrys borrowing capacity and credit-worthiness,thus,lowering its future borrowing costs.P

165、acing the adjustment.Ideally,spreading out fiscal tightening over time would prevent sudden,disruptive changes.A more backloaded adjustment path would also allow for more time to implement important reforms and establish measures to ease the impact.However,many countries face urgent fiscal pressures

166、 due to the ongoing funding squeeze.Taking immediate steps towards fiscal consolidation may not only be unavoidable but could also strengthen confidence in the regions adjustment efforts.The specific approach to reducing deficits will vary by country.For instance,for countries rich in natural resour

167、ces,a more gradual approach to fiscal tightening may be warranted given that fuel commodity prices are projected to remain relatively low in the medium term.Building public trust.Gaining public support is pivotal for the success of fiscal consolidation plans.This involves clear communication about t

168、he importance of fiscal adjustments,their potential benefits,and the risks of delaying action,despite some short-term downsides for certain groups.Strategies for winning over the public include targeted support to help those most affected,carefully planning the order of reforms,and demonstrating the

169、 governments dedication to managing finances responsibly and transparently.Figure 8.Fiscal Balance Including Grants,201925(Median,percent of GDP)9630204 Proj.25 Proj.Interquartile rangeFigure 8.Fiscal Balance Including Grants,201925(Median,percent of GDP)Source:IMF,World Economic Outlook

170、database.Source:IMF,World Economic Outlook database.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND9Dealing with elevated debt burdens.There are significant debt vulnerabilities in the region,with 19 out of 35 low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa either in debt distress or at

171、 high risk of distress as of end-2023.Besides fiscal consolidation,some countries can also adopt additional measures including enhancing debt reporting,refi-nancing andin collaboration with creditorsextending loan maturities and spreading out repayments.Improving public financial management and risk

172、 management,boosting fiscal transparency,and monitoring state-owned enterprises are key to help control“stock-flow adjustments,”triggered by issues like accrued arrears,increased off-budget spending,and expanded guarantees.However,several countries(Chad,Ethiopia,Ghana and Zambia)in the region are cu

173、rrently in the process of restructuring their debt under the G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment.The coordination among creditors has been challenging but there has been some progress as well.Ghana reached an agreement-in-principle on a debt treatment with its official bilateral creditors in Jan

174、uary 2024,in under half the time required for Chad two years prior,and Ethiopias debt standstill at the end of 2023 was also a positive development.After reaching an agreement with official creditors in June 2023,the Zambian authorities and the Eurobond holders Steering Committee agreed on a debt tr

175、eatment in line with program parameters and comparability of treatment set under the G20 Common Framework,in March 2024.Steps to improve this process further include the introduction of the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable created by the IMF,World Bank,and the G20 to better coordinate creditors and

176、address restructuring issues.Monetary policy:maintaining price stability while supporting growthHeadline inflation in sub-Saharan Africa has been declining since reaching its peak in November 2022,with the situation varying across countries(Figure 9).Ideally,monetary policy can complement fiscal eff

177、orts and support growth.However,based on latest available data from February 2024,roughly a third of the countries still face double-digit inflation,largely due to signifi-cant currency depreciations(notably in Angola,Malawi,Nigeria,Zambia and Zimbabwe).Even among countries with a marked decline in

178、inflation,only a select few have reduced policy interest rates over the past 12 months(Botswana,Ghana,and Mozambique).The majority have opted to continue tightening or maintain elevated policy rates,even after inflation has passed its peak.This cautious stance in monetary policy stems from two key f

179、actors.First,median core inflation only recently approached the levels seen before the pandemic.Second,sub-Saharan African countries started their monetary tightening cycles later than other EMDEs,leaving them to play catch-up while many EMDEs have started easing since the second half of 2023.This t

180、iming has resulted in a delayed cycle of tight monetary conditions,with the regions median policy rate peaking roughly 12 months later than in other EMDEs.Nonetheless,signs are growing that more countries in the region could soon have more space to lower interest rates.This is demonstrated by moneta

181、ry policy rates in real terms becoming increasingly positive across the region(Figure 10).Furthermore,about half of the countries with an implicit or explicit inflation target have already seen inflation return below or within their target bands as of February 2024(Figure 11).Policymakers grappling

182、with high borrowing costs,repercussions of fiscal adjustments,and mediocre growth face the delicate task of balancing price stability and cushioning the negative impact of fiscal consolidation where possible.In particular:Figure 9.Median Inflation,December 2021February 2024(Percent,year over year)Fi

183、gure 9.Median Inflation,December 2021February 2024(Percent,year over year)Sources:Country authorities;Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Country groupings are based on evolution of inflation for the last 3 months.In over half of the countries,inflation is declining.261014182226Dec-21Jun

184、-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Countries where inflation is still increasing or volatileCountries where inflationis decliningSub-Saharan AfricaSources:Country authorities;Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Country groupings,consisting of a fixed set of countries,are categorized based on the evolu

185、tion of inflation over the past three months.In over half of the countries,inflation is declining.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 202410 About half of the countries in the region show clear signs of easing inflationary pressures,with inflation already bel

186、ow or within their target bands.Central banks may consider gradually easing to a more neutral policy stance.This move would allow for more accommodative financing conditions,boosting private investment and mitigating the impact of fiscal consolidation.In nearly one third of the countries,inflation i

187、s trending lower but moderately exceeds targets.A“pause”in policy tightening may be warranted to ensure confidence in achieving price stability.As for the rest,where inflation significantly exceeds target policy rate and continues to rise,policymakers should decisively tighten monetary policy until

188、inflation is firmly on a downward trajectory and projected to return to the central banks target range.Maintaining price stability should be the immediate goal,and policies to reduce inflation can be accompanied by measures to alleviate the cost-of-living crisis.Where monetary financing is common,en

189、ding this practice and implementing sterilization are essential(forexample,Ethiopia).In cases where monetary policy is too accommodative and contributing to inflation,central banks should withdraw excess liquidity,particularly if monetary policy transmission is impaired(Angola,CEMAC,Nigeria).More ge

190、nerally,enhanced coordination between fiscal,monetary,and exchange rate policies is crucial to prevent excessively loose monetary conditions that might restart inflationary pressures.For instance,monetary policy tightening could be particularly relevant when fiscal adjustments lead to higher inflati

191、on(for example,due to the removal of energy subsidies).However,higher monetary policy rates could raise financing costs,contributing to higher government interest payments.This needs to be accommodated within the existing budget.Clear forward-looking communication on policy goals including by disclo

192、sing details about the timing of policy actions could effectively manage market expectations and minimize uncertainty.Exchange rate pressures and foreign currency shortages remain major concerns for policymakers.In 2023,most currencies in the region depreciated against the US dollar(Figure 12).The s

193、lower increase in monetary policy rates in sub-Saharan African countries compared to advanced economies contributed to the regions exchange rate depreciations.Other factors include decreased capital inflows,headwinds to exports,and the monetization of high fiscal deficits in few countries.Figure 10.

194、Real Monetary Policy Rates,February 2024(Percent)20Sierra LeoneBotswanaNigeriaMauritiusGuineaWAEMUAngolaSeychellesRwandaLesothoNamibiaSouth AfricaZambiaTanzaniaThe GambiaEswatiniCEMACUgandaKenyaMalawiMozambiqueCongo,Dem.Rep.GhanaBased on end-2024inflationBased on end-2023inflation(-30)Fig

195、ure 10.Real Monetary Policy Rates,February 2024(Percent)Sources:Haver Analytics;and IMF International Financial Statistics database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:CEMAC=Central African Economic and Monetary Community,WAEMU=West African Economic and Monetary Union.Sources:Haver Analytics;IMF Interna

196、tional Financial Statistics database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:CEMAC=Central African Economic and Monetary Community,WAEMU=West African Economic and Monetary Union.Figure 11.Actual versus Target Inflation,February 2024(Number of countries)Figure 11.Sub-Saharan Africa:Actual versus Target Infla

197、tion,February 2024(Number of countries)Sources:Country authorities;Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.024680Below or within bandModerately aboveMarkedly aboveSources:Country authorities;Haver Analytics;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Inflation data refers to February 2024,or the l

198、atest available.Moderately above=between the upper bound of band and twice the upper bound.Markedly above=exceeding twice the upper bound of band.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND11For countries with a flexible exchange rate regime and persistent exchange rate pressur

199、es,a combination of exchange rate adjustment,monetary policy tightening and targeted measures to alleviate the adverse effects continues to be needed.The policy response is constrained by the modest level of external buffers,with about 80 percent of the countries having reserves below 5 months of im

200、ports at end-2023.Moreover,the use of import restrictions and administrative measures are particularly discouraged as they are distortive and deter economic activity and investment.For countries with pegged regimes,the main objective is to maintain an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves,alig

201、ning policy rates with their respective anchor currency policy rate to preserve external stability.Structural reforms:broadening financing sources and diversifying growth opportunitiesPast reports recommendations on structural reforms remain relevant for driving growth and development in sub-Saharan

202、 Africa.However,in a context marked by higher borrowing costs and a more shock-prone world,the structural policy priorities outlined below target these specific challenges.Navigating higher borrowing costs entails finding more affordable and stable alternative financing sources but also spending mor

203、e wisely:Attracting foreign direct investment.The role of FDI has been vital for development in many emerging market economies,where it has provided stable financing,technology access,and job creation.However,sub-Saharan Africa captures a mere 3 percent of global FDI.Given high borrowing costs,prior

204、itizing cost-effective and viable reforms becomes essential to mobilize more FDI.Focusing on reforms that ensure macroeconomic stability and reduce policy uncertainty can already elevate investor confidence.Other effective measures include enhancing the business environment,leveling the playing fiel

205、d between public and private firms,reducing red tape,and improving governance.For instance,Senegal dramatically shortened the setup time for new businesses from two months to just 48 hours by streamlining administrative processes and reducing transactions costs.This move greatly contributed to enhan

206、cing its attractiveness to investors,as seen in the rise of net FDI inflows from 1.6percent of GDP in 2012 to 9.3 percent in 2022,including in the hydrocarbon sector.Fostering domestic financial markets.Developing domestic markets could also offer an alternative funding source for the region.So far,

207、these markets are less developed compared to other regions.Excluding South Africa,the average stock exchange market capitalization is less than 20 percent of a countrys GDP,significantly lower than the 50 percent in other EMDEs and far below the 126 percent in advanced economies(Figure13).Strengthen

208、ing financial markets requires building strong institutional frameworks that safeguard property rights and contract enforcement,promoting bank competition,and enhancing financial infrastructure.Like in the case of attracting FDI,governments also need to ensure economic stability as well as increase

209、transparency and reduce risks.In turn,better domestic financial markets would allow for more productive use of savingsoften kept as nonfinancial assetsby converting them into investment capital.Given that small and medium enterprises constitute the majority of the regions private sector,fostering fi

210、nancial inclusion through the development of mobile banking,microfinance and financial literacy would improve these enterprises access to funding.Figure 12.Exchange Rates,January 2023February 2024(Percent change versus US dollar)NigeriaAngolaMalawiBurundiCongo,Dem.Rep.ZambiaGhanaLiberiaRwandaSierra

211、LeoneKenyaSouth AfricaTanzaniaThe GambiaBotswanaEthiopiaUgandaMauritiusSeychellesMadagascarMozambiqueGuineaCEMAC/WAEMU-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-100Sources:Bloomberg Finance L.P.;and IMF staff calculations.Note:CEMAC=Central African Economic and Monetary Community;WAEMU=West African Economic and Monetary

212、 Union.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 202412Improving the quality and efficiency of public spending.Facing higher borrowing costs and tighter financing constraints,it is vital to spend every penny wisely to ensure the highest return possible.However,sub-

213、Saharan African countries have to bridge a signifi-cant gap in public spending efficiency,with nearly half of the potential value from public investments going unrealizedsignificantly worse than the 34 percent inef-ficiency found in other emerging market economies in 2020.5 This calls for a more str

214、ategic approach in project selection,ensuring transparent procurement,and minimizing project management costs.Investments should prioritize sectors with high private and social returns including infrastructure,education,and health-care,aligning with sustainable development goals.Moreover,fighting co

215、rruption can enhance investment quality and bolster public trust.In a shock-prone world,diversifying sources of economic growth is vital to lessen volatility and build resilience:Accelerating economic diversification.Natural resource-intensive countries in the region represent nearly three quarters

216、of the regions aggregate GDP as of 2022.This heavy reliance exposes them to the volatility of global commodity prices.Moreover,the eight oil exporters are expected to see a significant reduction in their oil revenues,projected to be only half of their 2020 levels by 2050,under a conservative transit

217、ion scenario towards clean energy(Analytical note“Managing Oil Price Uncertainty and the Energy Transition”,October 2022).To mitigate these risks and build resilience,diversifying their economies away from oil is crucial.This includes expanding into manufacturing,services,and technology.For countrie

218、s in the region rich in critical minerals that are essential for the clean energy transition,diversification could entail moving from extracting and exporting raw minerals to processing them,thereby increasing value added,creating higher-skilled jobs,and fostering technological spillovers(Analytical

219、 Note“Digging for Opportunity:Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africas Wealth in Critical Minerals”).Over the medium term,encouraging policies that support innovation,skill development,and better logistics and connectivity are key to achieving a structural transformation that makes the economy more competitiv

220、e and resilient.Integrating with regional trade partners.By expanding trade relationships beyond traditional partners,African countries can diversify export destinations and import sources,mitigating the risks associated with economic downturns in any single region.The African Continental Free Trade

221、 Area offers a significant oppor-tunity in this regard,but its success hinges on substantial reduction in tariff and non-tariff trade barriers,robust trade facilitation,as well as improvement in trade environment and infrastructure.To date,the implementation of these measures has been slow and narro

222、w,confined to a few countries and a limited range of actions.If fully implemented,the median goods trade within Africa could increase by 53 percent and with the rest of the world by 15percent(El-Ganainy and others,2023).Bolstering regional integration can also forge a larger and more interconnected

223、market,enhancing the regions investment appeal.Calling for International Support and SolidarityReforms will take time to deliver results.In the meantime,countries in sub-Saharan Africa will need support from the international community.The estimated gross external financing needs for low-income coun

224、tries(LICs)in the region amount to about$70 billion annually(6 percent of GDP)from 2024 to 2028(Figure 14).It is crucial that 5 Based on analysis using IMF Public Investment and Capital Stock Database and IMF Fiscal Affairs Department PIMA database.Figure 13.Stock Exchange Market Capitalization,2023

225、(Percent of GDP,average)020406080100120Advanced economies Emerging market anddeveloping economiesSub-Saharan Africa Figure 13.Stock Exchange Market Capitalization,2023(Percent of GDP,average)Sources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;World Federation of Exchanges;and IMF staff calculations.Note:The

226、 sample includes 79 stock exchanges from 70 countries.1 Excluding sub-Saharan Africa.2 Excluding South Africa.Sources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;World Federation of Exchanges;and IMF staff calculations.Note:The sample includes 79 stock exchanges from 70 countries.1 Excluding sub-Saharan Afr

227、ica.2 Excluding South Africa.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND13both multilateral and official bilateral creditors continue to play a key role in providing financing to the region and supporting domestic policy and reform efforts.However,this comes at a time when thes

228、e creditors and donors have been struggling with many competing global demands.Ongoing discussions on how to enhance the use of multilateral and regional development banks balance sheets could help deliver more financing to LICs(Holland and Pazarbasioglu 2024).Likewise,continued reevaluations of cou

229、ntry engagements by official bilateral donors and creditorstraditional providers of ODA and non-Paris creditorscould enhance the allocation of limited concessional funds and grants,including to the poorest.For some countries facing external financing gaps,seeking assistance from the IMF might be nec

230、essary.In fact,over the past four years,the IMF has emerged as a key supporter of sub-Saharan Africa.Since 2020,there has been a surge in demand for financial assistance across the region,with the IMF disbursing$34 billion in financing,much of it on concessional terms.The 2021 Special Drawing Rights

231、(SDR)allocations contributed another$23 billion,bringing the total support to approximately$58 billion,which also includes$0.8 billion from the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust.Currently,more than half of sub-Saharan African countries(27 out of 45)benefit from IMF financing arrangements,with

232、 around$6billion distributed in 2023 alone.The IMF is placing stronger emphasis on inclusive growth,including more support to help countries increase social spending.In recent years,nearly all new IMF programs in sub-Saharan Africa have included social spending targets,with an estimated median set a

233、t around 2 percent of GDP over 2022 and 2023.Attention to climate issues has grown as well.Since December 2022,nine sub-Saharan African nations(Benin,Cabo Verde,Cameroon,Cte dIvoire,Kenya,Niger,Rwanda,Senegal,and Seychelles)have secured arrangements under the new Resilience and Sustainability Facili

234、ty.The IMF also plays a crucial role in capacity development(CD),providing technical assistance and training.Notably,sub-Saharan Africa received nearly 40 percent of the IMFs direct CD delivery in 2023.The forthcoming Domestic Resource Mobilization Initiative,designed to help tackle funding challeng

235、es and assist member countries securing resources for development needs,should prove especially valuable for the region.Finally,three key milestones highlight the IMFs concerted efforts to meet the evolving needs of the region.First,IMF member countries quotas were increased by 50 percent following

236、the completion of the 16th General Review of Quotas,which was accompanied by a collective commitment to explore strategies for quota realignment by June 2025.A second major development was enhancing sub-Saharan Africas voice within the IMF by adding a 25th seat to the Executive Board,allowing for a

237、third representative for African countries.This decision underscored the importance of ensuring diverse voices and perspectives at the highest levels of decision-making.These developments align with global efforts to amplify Africas influence in the global arena,highlighted by the African Unions per

238、manent membership in the G20 and South Africas upcoming G20 chairmanship in 2025.Lastly,first-stage fundraising goals for the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust(PRGT),the IMFs concessional lending instrument,were achieved.By March 2024,a total of$19.5 billion had been raised for PRGT lending resourc

239、es,along with$3.1 billion for PRGT subsidy resources.Later this year,the IMF will review its PRGT facilities and financing to enhance its concessional financing for LICs,many of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.Amidst a volatile global economy,the goal of the review is to strike a balance between ens

240、uring adequate financial support to LICs and restoring the PRGTs long-term financial sustainability.Figure 14.Sub-Saharan African Low-Income Countries:Gross External Financing Needs,202028(Billions of US dollars)Figure 14.Sub-Saharan African Low-Income Countries:Gross External Financing Needs,202028

241、(Billions of US dollars)Sources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Aggregate gross external financing needs for low-income countries correspond to the sum of all positive gross external financing needs within the group.020406080202022728ProjectionsExternal

242、 debt amortizationCurrent account deficitSources:IMF,World Economic Outlook database;and IMF staff calculations.Note:Aggregate gross external financing needs for low-income countries correspond to the sum of all positive gross external financing needs within the group.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Sa

243、haran AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 202414ReferencesAndrle,Michal,Patrick Blagrave,Pedro Espaillat,Keiko Honjo,Benjamin Hunt,Mika Kortelainen,Ren Lalonde,Douglas Laxton,Eleonara Mavroeidi,Dirk Muir,and Sussana Mursula.2015.“The Flexible System of Global ModelsFSGM.”IMF Working Paper 2015/6

244、4,International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC.Caldara,Dario,and Matteo Iacoviello.2022.“Measuring Geopolitical Risk.”American Economic Review 112,no.4:11941225.Ebeke,Christian,and Dilan lcer.2013“Fiscal Policy over the Election Cycle in Low-Income Countries.”IMF Working Paper 2013/153,International Mo

245、netary Fund,Washington,DC.El-Ganainy,Asmaa A.,Shushanik Hakobyan,Fei Liu,Hans Weisfeld,Cline Allard,Hippolyte W.Balima,Celine Bteish,Rahul Giri,Daniel S.Kanda,Sergii Meleshchuk,and Gustavo Ramirez.2023“Trade Integration in Africa:Unleashing the Continents Potential in a Changing World.”Departmental

246、Paper 2023/3,International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC.Fofack,Hippolyte.2021.“The Ruinous Price for Africa of Pernicious Perception Premiums.”AGI,Brookings Institution Report,October.Gaspar,Vitor,Sanjeev Gupta,and Carlos Mulas-Granados.2017.“Fiscal politics.”International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC

247、.Gbohoui,William,Rasman Ouedraogo,and Y.Modeste Some.2023.“Sub-Saharan Africas Risk Perception Premium:In the Search of Missing Factors.”IMF Working Paper 2023/130,International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC.Griffith-Jones,Stephany,and Moritz Kraemer.2021.“Credit rating agencies and developing economi

248、es.”UN/DESA Working Paper No.175.Holland,Allison and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.2024.“How to Ease Rising External Debt-Service Pressures in Low-Income Countries”IMF Blog,International Monetary Fund,Washington,D.C.International Monetary Fund.2024.“Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects for Low-Income Coun

249、tries.”IMF Policy Paper 2024/011,Washington,DC.Presbitero,Andrea,Dhaneshwar Ghura,Olumuyiwa S.Adedeji,and Lamin Njie.2016.“Sovereign bonds in developing countries:Drivers of issuance and spreads.”Review of Development Finance 6,no.1:115.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FU

250、ND15Statistical AppendixUnless otherwise noted,data and projections presented in this Regional Economic Outlook are IMF staff estimates as of March 29,2024,consistent with the projections underlying the April 2024 World Economic Outlook.The data and projections cover 45 sub-Saharan African countries

251、 in the IMFs African Department.Data defini-tions follow established international statistical methodologies to the extent possible.However,in some cases,data limitations limit comparability across countries.Country Groupings Countries are aggregated into three(nonoverlapping)groups:oil exporters,ot

252、her resource-intensive countries,and non-resource-intensive countries(see table on page vi for the country groupings).The oil exporters are countries where net oil exports make up 30 percent or more of total exports.The other resource-intensive countries are those where nonrenewable natural resource

253、s represent 25 percent or more of total exports.The non-resource-intensive countries refer to those that are not classified as either oil exporters or other resource-intensive countries.Countries are also aggregated into four(overlapping)groups:oil exporters,middle-income,low-income,and countries in

254、 fragile and conflict-affected situations.(see table on page vi for the country groupings).The membership of these groups reflects the most recent data on per capita gross national income(averaged over three years)and the World Bank,Classification of Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations.The midd

255、le-income countries had per capita gross national income in the years 202022 of more than$1,135.00(World Bank,using the Atlas method).The low-income countries had average per capita gross national income in the years 202022 equal to or lower than$1,135.00(World Bank,Atlas method).The countries in fr

256、agile and conflict-affected situations are classified based on the World Bank,Classification of Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations,FY2024.The membership of sub-Saharan African countries in the major regional cooperation bodies is shown on page vi:CFA franc zone,comprising the West African Econ

257、omic and Monetary Union(WAEMU)and CEMAC;the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa(COMESA);the East Africa Community(EAC-5);the Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS);the Southern African Development Community(SADC);and the Southern African Customs Union(SACU).EAC-5 aggregates incl

258、ude data for Rwanda and Burundi,which joined the group only in 2007.Methods of Aggregation In Tables SA1 and SA3,country group composites for real GDP growth and broad money are calculated asthe arithmetic average of data for individual countries,weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parityas a

259、 share of total group GDP.The source of purchasing power parity weights is the World Economic Outlook(WEO)database.In Table SA1,country group composites for consumer prices are calculated as the geometric average of datafor individual countries,weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a

260、share of total group GDP.Thesource of purchasing power parity weights is the WEO database.In Tables SA2SA4,country group composites,except for broad money,are calculated as the arithmetic average of data for individual countries,weighted by GDP in US dollars at market exchange rates as a share of to

261、talgroup GDP.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND17List of Sources and Footnotes for Statistical Appendix Tables SA1-SA4 Tables SA1.,SA3.Sources:IMF,Common Surveillance database;and IMF,April 2024,World Economic Outlook database.1 Data and projections for 202029 are excl

262、uded from the database due to constraints in data reporting.2 In 2019 Zimbabwe authorities introduced the real-time gross settlement(RTGS)dollar,later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar,and are in the process of redenominating their national accounts statistics.Current data are subject to revision.The Zimb

263、abwe dollar previously ceased circulating in 2009,and between 200919,Zimbabwe operated under a multicurrency regime with the US dollar as the unit of account.Note:“.”denotes data not available.Table SA2.Sources:IMF,Common Surveillance database;and IMF,April 2024,World Economic Outlook database.1 Dat

264、a and projections for 202029 are excluded from the database due to constraints in data reporting.2 For Zambia,government debt projections for 202425 are omitted due to ongoing debt restructuring.3 In 2019 Zimbabwe authorities introduced the real-time gross settlement(RTGS)dollar,later renamed the Zi

265、mbabwe dollar,and are in the process of redenominating their national accounts statistics.Current data are subject to revision.The Zimbabwe dollar previously ceased circulating in 2009,and between 200919,Zimbabwe operated under a multicurrency regime with the US dollar as the unit of account.Note:“.

266、”denotes data not available.Table SA4.Sources:IMF,Common Surveillance database;and IMF,April 2024,World Economic Outlook database.1 As a member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union(WAEMU),see WAEMU aggregate for reserves data.2 As a member of the Central African Economic and Monetary Comm

267、unity(CEMAC),see CEMAC aggregate for reserves data.3 Data and projections for 202029 are excluded from the database due to constraints in data reporting.4 Official Reserves include foreign assets held by Ghana Petroleum and Stabilization Fund and exclude encumbered assets.5 For Zambia,external debt

268、projections for 202425 are omitted due to ongoing debt restructuring.6 In 2019 Zimbabwe authorities introduced the real-time gross settlement(RTGS)dollar,later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar,and are in the process of redenominating their national accounts statistics.Current data are subject to revision

269、.The Zimbabwe dollar previously ceased circulating in 2009,and between 200919,Zimbabwe operated under a multicurrency regime with the US dollar as the unit of account.Note:“.”denotes data not available.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 2024020212

270、02220232024202520242025Angola2.05.61.23.00.52.63.116.322.325.821.413.622.012.8Benin5.13.87.26.35.86.06.01.23.01.71.42.83.02.0Botswana4.18.711.95.83.23.64.64.61.96.712.25.14.04.5Burkina Faso5.71.96.91.83.65.55.81.01.93.913.80.92.12.0Burundi1.90.33.11.82.74.35.47.17.38.318.927.02

271、2.020.0Cabo Verde3.020.85.617.14.84.74.71.10.61.97.93.12.02.0Cameroon4.40.53.63.64.04.34.51.92.52.36.37.25.95.5Central African Republic0.71.01.00.50.71.31.74.90.94.35.63.24.74.6Chad2.82.10.93.14.42.93.71.95.31.66.92.73.13.1Comoros3.10.22.02.63.03.54.01.80.80.012.48.52.02.2Congo,Democratic Republic o

272、f the5.91.76.08.86.14.75.710.211.49.09.319.917.28.5Congo,Republic of0.36.31.11.74.04.43.22.31.42.03.04.53.63.0Cte dIvoire6.60.77.16.96.26.56.41.52.44.25.24.43.83.0Equatorial Guinea2.74.80.43.25.90.54.62.54.80.14.92.54.41.8Eritrea14.62.6Eswatini2.51.610.70.55.13.73.35.93.93.74.84.93.93.1Ethiopia9.56.

273、16.36.47.26.26.514.420.426.833.930.225.618.2Gabon3.71.81.53.02.32.92.72.31.71.14.33.62.12.2The Gambia2.50.65.34.95.66.25.86.35.97.411.517.015.110.5Ghana6.50.55.13.12.32.84.411.89.910.031.737.522.311.5Guinea6.24.75.64.05.74.15.611.410.612.610.57.811.010.2Guinea-Bissau3.91.56.44.24.25.05.01.31.53.37.9

274、7.23.02.0Kenya4.70.37.64.85.55.05.37.45.36.17.67.76.65.5Lesotho1.35.31.71.61.92.42.55.15.06.08.36.36.45.4Liberia2.83.05.04.84.65.36.212.517.07.87.610.16.35.1Madagascar3.27.15.74.03.84.54.67.04.25.88.29.97.87.3Malawi4.10.94.60.81.63.33.817.28.69.320.830.327.914.7Mali4.31.23.13.54.54.04.51.10.53.89.72

275、.11.02.0Mauritius3.714.53.48.96.94.93.73.02.54.010.87.04.93.6Mozambique5.51.22.44.46.05.05.07.03.15.79.86.14.45.5Namibia2.88.13.54.63.22.62.65.22.23.66.15.94.84.8Niger5.93.51.411.91.410.46.10.72.93.84.23.76.44.6Nigeria3.01.83.63.32.93.33.011.613.217.018.824.726.323.0Rwanda7.13.410.98.26.96.97.03.97.

276、70.813.914.05.85.0So Tom&Prncipe3.62.61.90.10.32.94.18.19.88.118.021.214.27.8Senegal5.01.36.54.04.18.310.21.02.52.29.75.93.92.0Seychelles6.611.70.615.03.73.23.83.01.29.82.61.0-0.22.6Sierra Leone5.02.04.13.53.44.04.510.013.411.927.247.739.121.7South Africa1.66.04.71.90.60.91.25.33.34.66.95.94.94.5Sou

277、th Sudan5.36.55.35.20.15.66.898.624.030.23.240.254.821.7Tanzania6.74.54.84.75.05.56.07.33.33.74.44.04.04.0Togo5.42.06.05.85.45.35.31.41.84.57.65.12.72.0Uganda5.31.15.56.34.85.66.56.82.82.27.25.43.84.9Zambia4.32.86.25.24.34.74.89.015.722.011.011.011.47.8Zimbabwe24.67.88.46.55.33.23.230.2557.298.5193.

278、4667.4561.0554.7Sub-Saharan Africa3.81.64.74.03.43.84.08.310.211.014.516.215.312.4Median4.41.24.94.04.14.44.64.53.64.68.26.74.94.8Excluding Nigeria and South Africa5.00.15.25.04.54.95.38.011.210.715.216.014.110.6Resource-intensive countries3.12.54.13.42.53.03.28.811.011.514.717.517.214.2Oil-exportin

279、g countries2.72.33.13.22.53.33.011.112.915.717.120.122.418.6 Excluding Nigeria2.13.61.63.01.63.13.210.012.212.712.89.513.08.3Other resource-intensive countries3.42.75.13.52.42.83.36.59.27.712.515.012.510.2Excluding South Africa5.60.45.55.04.14.55.18.115.410.918.124.219.815.4Non-resource-intensive co

280、untries5.90.86.55.75.85.76.17.17.99.814.112.910.78.1Middle-income countries3.12.94.53.42.63.23.38.28.510.513.114.314.011.4Low-income countries6.01.85.35.65.45.45.78.814.912.518.321.318.615.1Countries in fragile and conflict-affected situations4.10.24.24.24.04.24.110.215.616.320.325.625.121.2CFA fran

281、c zone4.40.34.54.84.25.55.41.62.52.76.54.23.73.1CEMAC2.51.51.83.12.73.43.12.22.91.25.65.14.54.0WAEMU5.71.36.05.74.96.66.61.22.23.57.03.83.42.6COMESA(SSA members)5.90.46.55.95.75.35.69.417.314.719.623.920.616.4EAC-55.50.96.55.25.35.45.97.14.44.47.16.85.55.1ECOWAS4.00.74.43.93.44.14.19.310.212.716.920

282、.119.415.8SACU1.76.15.02.10.91.11.55.23.24.67.15.94.84.5SADC2.84.24.63.42.22.63.07.710.89.611.713.313.010.7Table SA1.Real GDP Growth and Consumer Prices Consumer Prices,Annual Average(Annual percent change)Real GDP(Annual percent change)See sources on page 18.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 IN

283、TERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND020224202520242025Angola0.51.93.80.70.12.73.159.8138.783.764.884.570.361.8Benin2.44.75.75.64.53.72.930.146.150.354.254.253.452.4Botswana0.910.92.40.00.63.60.717.618.718.717.819.417.916.8Burkina Faso3.35.27.510.76.85.74.731.143.855.

284、658.461.963.363.4Burundi5.16.35.210.69.15.93.345.166.066.668.462.872.762.7Cabo Verde5.09.37.74.30.33.22.1102.1148.1153.1127.5115.4112.2108.0Cameroon3.53.23.01.10.70.40.427.644.946.845.341.939.236.5Central African Republic0.93.46.05.33.53.11.947.544.448.554.255.755.654.4Chad0.71.21.44.21.31.00.730.74

285、1.242.135.935.132.331.4Comoros0.50.52.84.04.53.42.418.124.326.328.133.235.536.3Congo,Democratic Republic of the0.53.21.80.52.21.61.218.016.215.714.314.311.18.9Congo,Republic of2.11.11.68.93.64.93.659.7102.597.892.5100.894.689.4Cte dIvoire2.45.44.86.65.24.03.032.446.350.255.357.157.756.9Equatorial Gu

286、inea5.01.82.613.61.73.30.625.249.442.134.642.437.736.8Eritrea12.3235.6Eswatini4.54.54.53.81.10.92.722.541.040.241.037.837.238.0Ethiopia2.32.82.84.22.52.02.549.253.753.847.138.030.528.6Gabon0.52.21.90.71.84.26.444.578.365.863.670.573.178.9The Gambia4.22.44.84.93.02.61.370.285.983.182.971.764.359.7Gha

287、na6.617.412.011.84.65.04.349.672.379.293.386.183.680.9Guinea0.63.11.70.81.63.02.640.247.842.740.240.335.132.6Guinea-Bissau2.99.65.96.17.63.83.055.077.778.880.477.876.574.0Kenya6.28.17.26.15.34.03.246.768.068.268.473.373.070.3Lesotho3.10.05.45.23.12.82.243.754.758.462.963.663.262.3Liberia3.94.02.55.3

288、6.45.05.028.758.753.353.955.756.557.7Madagascar2.14.02.85.54.93.84.638.151.951.853.456.656.155.6Malawi3.88.28.69.47.66.67.535.554.861.575.881.374.974.6Mali2.75.44.84.94.84.23.631.546.950.352.953.055.155.7Mauritius3.310.54.13.13.33.73.062.294.788.884.281.181.080.8Mozambique4.24.63.95.22.73.31.278.012

289、0.0104.399.391.996.994.7Namibia6.18.18.76.03.72.13.338.264.370.470.567.265.464.2Niger3.74.85.96.85.54.13.027.845.051.350.751.848.947.4Nigeria3.15.65.55.44.24.64.221.734.535.739.446.346.646.8Rwanda2.69.57.05.75.57.03.433.065.666.761.162.169.971.7So Tom&Prncipe5.22.91.52.20.90.91.578.470.862.458.149.5

290、42.637.4Senegal3.96.46.36.64.93.93.147.269.273.376.079.672.567.6Seychelles1.514.85.60.81.51.40.465.077.471.258.956.758.357.2Sierra Leone5.15.87.310.37.33.03.651.576.379.494.180.069.767.8South Africa4.09.65.54.36.06.16.344.968.968.871.173.975.477.9South Sudan5.75.59.34.28.04.13.853.049.352.239.954.14

291、8.342.1Tanzania2.72.63.53.93.52.72.636.741.343.444.946.346.144.4Togo3.87.04.78.36.66.03.048.362.264.966.567.268.366.5Uganda3.07.87.56.35.04.13.627.846.350.449.949.949.748.6Zambia26.313.88.17.86.86.15.450.9140.0111.099.5115.2Zimbabwe33.30.82.26.07.89.99.851.584.558.6100.690.298.586.8Sub-Saharan Afric

292、a3.36.54.94.44.13.73.437.657.056.257.260.158.556.8Median3.15.04.85.24.03.73.040.656.758.558.659.558.357.7Excluding Nigeria and South Africa3.05.74.44.13.42.82.542.563.259.859.760.055.852.7Resource-intensive countries3.26.74.74.04.03.93.736.155.954.556.160.860.659.3Oil-exporting countries2.64.63.73.0

293、2.61.91.730.148.444.945.853.952.450.5 Excluding Nigeria1.72.00.51.70.11.21.047.787.266.658.467.459.254.5Other resource-intensive countries3.88.45.64.95.05.04.842.462.462.165.465.965.364.3Excluding South Africa3.57.25.65.54.24.13.538.855.754.759.458.556.552.9Non-resource-intensive countries3.66.05.45

294、.74.23.42.943.560.361.360.658.354.251.9Middle-income countries3.57.45.24.54.34.03.737.159.058.159.365.265.664.9Low-income countries2.53.73.94.23.73.22.939.251.350.551.248.445.142.4Countries in fragile and conflict-affected situations2.84.44.44.33.43.12.928.742.642.844.946.944.442.1CFA franc zone2.74

295、.24.03.33.52.82.434.653.055.356.458.156.855.5CEMAC2.42.01.42.50.30.20.935.257.255.352.553.851.349.8WAEMU3.05.55.56.85.34.23.234.750.555.358.860.659.958.6COMESA(SSA members)3.45.64.84.94.23.53.342.460.657.758.155.650.847.3EAC-54.46.56.25.64.73.83.139.356.257.757.659.559.457.3ECOWAS3.36.76.16.34.54.43

296、.727.643.246.249.955.256.455.7SACU4.09.55.54.15.55.85.943.566.366.468.370.671.673.6SADC3.27.14.03.44.44.14.045.170.463.964.468.066.364.7Table SA2.Overall Fiscal Balance,Including Grants and Government Debt Government Debt(Percent of GDP)Overall Fiscal Balance,Including Grants(Percent of GDP)See sour

297、ces on page 18.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 2024202024202520242025Angola34.638.424.420.021.620.120.03.01.511.29.63.14.94.6Benin28.130.532.733.430.730.730.74.91.74.26.05.65.04.6Botswana44.752.545.440.040.742.1

298、42.02.010.31.33.00.41.22.5Burkina Faso32.444.148.646.142.543.544.75.14.20.47.27.95.74.1Burundi27.046.350.656.655.754.753.514.19.711.616.213.317.315.3Cabo Verde85.5116.9114.395.995.596.295.46.315.312.23.45.36.16.3Cameroon21.726.629.129.429.930.129.83.33.74.03.42.82.82.8Central African Republic24.030.

299、333.331.931.931.030.77.18.211.112.79.07.76.7Chad11.015.317.118.820.622.423.53.82.81.95.42.52.33.0Comoros25.131.237.137.138.238.938.73.11.80.30.56.05.85.3Congo,Democratic Republic of the11.519.921.619.521.321.822.24.42.11.05.05.44.13.2Congo,Republic of26.632.730.827.531.834.334.72.212.612.818.53.22.5

300、0.1Cte dIvoire10.913.514.914.111.411.711.60.33.13.97.76.03.82.6Equatorial Guinea13.217.514.716.419.719.219.38.40.84.22.41.32.72.7Eritrea1207.614.9Eswatini26.832.329.728.127.927.527.56.07.12.62.72.22.11.1Ethiopia29.230.831.127.924.922.523.37.14.63.24.32.92.61.7Gabon23.727.923.122.826.426.426.45.20.53

301、.310.44.24.03.0The Gambia38.656.059.254.649.345.543.87.63.04.24.24.14.43.1Ghana24.130.829.429.529.427.928.25.62.52.72.11.71.92.2Guinea24.227.825.529.125.726.324.716.316.22.58.68.710.610.0Guinea-Bissau38.545.650.546.746.145.244.42.42.60.89.69.45.64.6Kenya36.837.235.233.934.034.034.06.94.75.25.23.94.3

302、4.2Lesotho35.641.139.138.740.138.437.46.21.85.49.62.91.17.0Liberia20.225.524.625.026.827.027.220.116.417.819.026.524.824.5Madagascar23.428.728.628.930.132.133.62.75.44.95.44.54.84.7Malawi17.217.520.123.623.623.623.610.213.814.13.26.97.19.4Mali26.931.339.541.137.837.837.85.22.27.48.09.05.14.4Mauritiu

303、s104.3156.7159.9140.9132.9132.2135.55.88.813.011.55.95.34.8Mozambique44.759.056.255.050.951.351.230.927.422.634.711.038.742.9Namibia58.371.570.663.063.263.763.88.13.011.213.110.97.26.6Niger17.519.220.119.418.418.518.812.613.214.116.212.85.14.3Nigeria24.325.225.225.833.630.030.51.23.70.70.20.30.60.1R

304、wanda22.429.029.929.229.227.428.610.512.111.29.811.712.19.8So Tom&Prncipe41.132.529.528.125.423.423.417.411.212.113.112.99.28.9Senegal34.645.348.251.950.147.961.37.210.912.119.915.18.94.8Seychelles64.4101.693.480.582.886.585.915.312.310.16.97.38.48.5Sierra Leone22.229.532.435.532.526.425.023.07.99.5

305、11.04.02.83.7South Africa66.474.070.171.172.174.375.63.51.93.70.51.61.81.9South Sudan22.323.217.614.414.913.113.04.518.99.49.71.73.95.7Tanzania22.321.722.022.823.423.523.77.12.53.85.65.34.23.6Togo37.246.648.150.450.451.051.54.90.32.24.23.43.93.6Uganda17.422.521.820.420.620.720.55.69.59.38.87.77.37.6

306、Zambia21.731.224.327.129.429.429.70.310.69.73.71.83.75.2Zimbabwe223.914.814.918.815.915.815.67.92.51.01.00.40.21.0Sub-Saharan Africa35.338.637.236.738.337.437.82.72.71.02.02.82.82.6Median26.431.030.329.330.430.030.25.33.44.15.35.34.44.2Excluding Nigeria and South Africa28.232.731.430.329.829.329.84.

307、43.93.03.54.13.73.3Resource-intensive countries36.840.038.138.141.040.040.31.71.40.80.01.61.31.3Oil-exporting countries25.127.025.024.830.928.328.61.02.90.92.50.61.10.6 Excluding Nigeria26.931.224.522.524.323.923.90.60.54.67.11.11.71.3Other resource-intensive countries48.352.350.250.350.350.851.14.4

308、0.10.72.43.32.72.4Excluding South Africa26.330.830.630.430.229.930.05.82.32.54.34.83.52.7Non-resource-intensive countries30.234.734.633.131.530.831.76.96.36.47.95.65.85.2Middle-income countries38.442.139.939.642.341.241.91.41.70.40.51.61.31.3Low-income countries24.928.929.829.027.927.327.67.85.55.06

309、.35.45.55.0Countries in fragile and conflict-affected situations25.227.728.328.031.829.529.91.63.71.92.02.12.82.8CFA franc zone21.626.929.029.128.128.229.83.32.83.54.85.63.73.0CEMAC19.624.625.025.227.127.727.82.40.90.53.70.81.01.6WAEMU22.928.331.231.128.628.530.84.34.05.810.08.45.23.7COMESA(SSA memb

310、ers)30.134.433.732.031.230.630.95.74.13.84.64.13.52.9EAC-527.429.528.728.128.428.328.37.05.35.96.45.75.55.2ECOWAS24.226.927.427.932.029.530.41.04.02.42.83.02.72.5SACU64.672.368.368.869.671.672.73.41.53.00.71.81.91.8SADC49.955.151.050.350.851.551.93.40.21.80.82.32.52.5Table SA3.Broad Money and Extern

311、al Current Account,Including Grants External Current Account,Including Grants(Percent of GDP)Broad Money(Percent of GDP)See sources on page 18.A TEPID AND PRICEY RECOVERYAPRIL 2024 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND220224202520242025Angola33.691.269.243.254.652.9

312、46.59.39.56.57.37.77.77.7Benin115.630.335.237.841.044.745.8.Botswana15.412.510.19.310.19.27.611.46.46.67.07.06.26.2Burkina Faso121.023.124.526.126.125.925.6.Burundi19.517.519.919.619.831.931.12.51.02.21.50.71.72.4Cabo Verde78.4132.9123.9105.795.293.390.65.77.66.75.65.96.26.1Cameroon218.432.530.330.9

313、28.928.827.6.Central African Republic229.337.333.736.134.633.131.9.Chad218.220.717.916.514.913.114.6.Comoros17.123.525.427.332.634.835.57.17.98.66.66.46.96.5Congo,Democratic Republic of the17.815.516.314.916.616.815.80.90.41.11.72.02.22.3Congo,Republic of 224.429.223.324.524.622.321.4.Cte dIvoire119

314、.633.530.335.136.037.736.7.Equatorial Guinea28.515.412.210.010.08.26.6.Eritrea362.22.8Eswatini8.815.214.917.419.220.421.73.73.13.02.43.03.13.0Ethiopia25.428.829.123.317.413.911.72.02.01.50.8Gabon229.849.036.134.634.430.028.5.The Gambia37.549.447.247.643.739.235.23.65.87.75.44.94.94.6Ghana429.842.041

315、.742.743.846.547.73.03.74.01.21.62.22.8Guinea23.227.224.521.919.718.118.32.21.92.63.22.52.22.3Guinea-Bissau130.043.938.539.435.533.031.2.Kenya22.830.631.131.233.938.337.64.64.64.74.43.74.14.1Lesotho35.447.543.144.047.146.845.94.84.15.04.04.24.74.5Liberia18.441.137.235.335.135.336.42.12.23.92.92.01.9

316、1.9Madagascar23.535.933.233.236.638.239.03.44.84.54.65.45.35.4Malawi19.431.830.932.027.931.831.92.50.80.50.51.82.93.9Mali122.831.527.127.224.624.124.2.Mauritius13.320.223.219.320.617.516.78.414.412.811.49.79.79.5Mozambique63.190.282.973.966.765.563.13.54.62.63.12.22.12.0Namibia12.218.814.517.218.017

317、.215.43.44.04.54.54.45.05.2Niger118.433.031.532.932.029.128.7.Nigeria3.78.09.19.411.618.019.66.16.56.36.05.45.86.1Rwanda28.054.853.547.051.060.265.23.95.34.63.63.83.94.2So Tom&Prncipe84.365.159.557.850.646.544.43.74.43.72.31.01.92.6Senegal132.948.945.947.043.239.436.2.Seychelles34.435.338.628.128.03

318、2.234.03.63.73.73.23.23.43.6Sierra Leone31.648.348.347.651.443.844.43.24.55.63.72.72.62.5South Africa15.023.418.618.821.021.922.65.86.45.56.25.75.24.8South Sudan50.049.950.142.851.044.942.11.70.11.00.90.81.41.9Tanzania26.029.429.629.229.430.628.84.85.34.03.73.93.93.9Togo113.329.526.026.425.626.827.0

319、.Uganda16.630.029.526.726.527.326.94.64.34.73.13.03.64.0Zambia526.466.554.139.240.12.71.32.83.13.13.64.6Zimbabwe631.626.619.722.622.020.419.90.50.11.10.70.10.20.4Sub-Saharan Africa16.726.624.823.825.627.226.55.25.04.64.64.03.93.9Median22.731.630.631.130.731.831.13.64.44.23.43.23.64.0Excluding Nigeri

320、a and South Africa24.736.634.031.631.530.628.94.33.83.63.43.03.23.2Resource-intensive countries14.923.921.820.923.525.825.55.55.55.05.14.64.54.5Oil-exporting countries11.120.219.618.121.626.726.26.36.25.75.95.55.85.9 Excluding Nigeria27.054.044.335.639.236.833.56.65.54.45.85.75.85.7Other resource-in

321、tensive countries18.827.223.523.324.825.225.14.74.84.54.44.03.83.8Excluding South Africa24.131.129.028.028.428.127.13.33.23.32.52.42.52.8Non-resource-intensive countries24.134.533.932.530.930.228.63.63.73.52.92.32.72.7Middle-income countries14.825.223.222.525.628.928.75.85.85.35.44.94.94.9Low-income

322、 countries24.730.729.427.425.524.022.72.82.82.72.11.92.12.2Countries in fragile and conflict-affected situations11.317.417.616.918.220.219.74.84.84.54.23.43.23.2CFA franc zone20.633.030.131.731.331.030.24.64.74.44.23.53.43.4CEMAC19.931.326.826.625.624.123.34.33.43.34.24.04.23.8WAEMU21.434.032.134.93

323、4.634.834.04.95.45.24.13.33.53.8COMESA(SSA members)22.430.029.026.525.324.322.73.23.13.12.72.32.72.7EAC-522.731.131.230.431.734.633.84.64.74.43.93.63.94.0ECOWAS10.318.819.519.622.928.729.45.15.35.24.53.73.63.8SACU14.922.918.218.420.521.221.75.96.25.46.15.75.24.9SADC20.632.427.025.427.727.826.85.75.64.85.35.04.84.7Table SA4.External Debt,Official Debt,Debtor Based and ReservesReserves(Months of imports of goods and services)External Debt,Official Debt,Debtor Based(Percent of GDP)See sources on page 18.REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOKSub-Saharan AfricaINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND APRIL 202422