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NOVEMBER 2023VISION 2050 STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CARIJIT SEN,JOSH MILLER,GABRIEL HILLMAN ALVAREZ,AND PATRICIA FERRINI RODRIGUES ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis study was generously supported by the FIA Foundation.The authors thank the members of the external advisory group that supported us with data,scenario design inputs,and reviews of early drafts:Sheila Watson(FIA Foundation);Jacob Teter(independent consultant,formerly of the International Energy Agency);D.Taylor Reich(Institute for Transportation and Development Policy);Matteo Craglia and Luis Martinez(International Transport Forum);Anna Zetkulic(Rocky Mountain Institute);Alan Lewis(Smart Freight Centre);Rob de Jong(United Nations Environment Programme);Lew Fulton(University of California,Davis);and Sebastian Castellanos(World Resources Institute).Additionally,we thank our colleagues Eamonn Mulholland,Zifei Yang,Peter Mock,Sarina Katz,and Kelli Pennington for their critical review of the draft.Helpful comments on the project were also provided by attendees of the Sixth International Transport and Energy Modeling Consortium Workshop.Any errors are the authors own.Edited by:Jen Callahan and Lori Sharn International Council on Clean Transportation 1500 K Street NW,Suite 650Washington,DC 20005communicationstheicct.org|www.theicct.org|TheICCT 2023 International Council on Clean TransportationiICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since 2020,the world has had a remaining carbon budget of 400 billion tonnes(Gt)of carbon dioxide(CO2)if we are to have a likely chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC,2021).The same carbon budget for 1.7C is 700 Gt CO2 and for 2C,it is 1,150 Gt CO2.Road vehicles account for more than 20%of the carbon emissions from human activities,considering both fuel production and combustion.Figure ES-1 shows CO2 emissions pathways for light-and heavy-duty vehicles that are compatible with the IPCCs carbon budgets if vehicles emit a proportional(21%)share of the economy-wide carbon budget.02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00020202030204020502060207020802090Well-to-wheel CO2 emissions(million tonnes)2C:242 billion tonnes1.7C:147 billion tonnes1.5C:84 billion tonnes2028-62 26-94 24Year when emissionspeak for each pathwayCarbon budget allocatedto road transport for eachpathway without overshoot Percent change in emissionsfrom 2020 to 2050Figure ES-1.Well-to-wheel CO2 emission pathways for light-and heavy-duty vehicles compatible with 2C,1.7C,and 1.5C of warming without temperature overshoot(all 67%likelihood).Modeling by the International Council on Clean Transportation(ICCT)shows that without any further policy action,global vehicle CO2 emissions would exceed even the budget for 2C.However,a faster transition to zero-emission vehicles(battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles)could peak vehicle emissions by 2027 and align with a 2C target.This study explores the potential of a combination of five strategies to further reduce carbon emissions from vehicles.We consulted with other researchers to formulate ambitious but feasible scenarios for road vehicles and then used the ICCTs Roadmap model to explore their potential to align vehicle emissions with a well-below 2C or 1.5C goal.We find that a combination of all five strategies could cut cumulative CO2 emissions from vehicles in half through 2050 compared with a Baseline scenario.That“All Out”scenario would save 144 Gt CO2 and align the sector with a warming target well below 2C(Figure ES-2).These are the five strategies in the All Out scenario:1.Accelerate the global transition to zero-emission vehicles2.Maximize the fuel efficiency of any new combustion vehicles sold3.Replace old combustion vehicles faster4.Reduce the dependence on cars in urban areas and improve freight logistics5.Decarbonize the electricity and hydrogen used in zero-emission vehiclesiiICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CCumulative well-to-wheel CO2 transportation emissions(billion tonnes)projected from 2020 to 20500500300Dashed lines indicate 2020-2050carbon budget from IPCC Sixth Assessment Report,assuming 67%likelihood and 21%share of allemissions from road vehicles.2C=210 billion tonnesCO2 mitigationby strategy1.7C=145 billion tonnes1.5C=84 billion tonnesAll Out scenario:Emissions after deployingthe above strategiesBaseline:Total emissions2020 to 2050without proposedmitigation strategies-22-61-16Advanced ICE TechnologyAvoid and ShiftAmbitious ZEV SalesClean Electricity and Hydrogen285140-20Fleet RenewalMitigation potential of ambitious but feasible strategies-26Figure ES-2.Cumulative well-to-wheel CO2 emissions in the Baseline and All Out scenarios and relative mitigation potential of each strategy,with reference lines for vehicle carbon budgets through 2050 compatible with 1.5C,1.7C,and 2C targets.Data labels are rounded to the nearest Gt.Accelerating the global transition to zero-emission vehicles contributes 42%of the emission reductions in the All Out scenariomore than any other two strategies combined.This would require making sure that around 70%of new cars and 50%of new trucks sold by 2030 are electric,and in major markets those percentages increase to 100%for new cars by 2035 and 100%for new trucks by 2040.This scenario also includes actions to shift the international used vehicle market to zero-emission vehicles so that countries that rely significantly on used imports are also part of the strategy to reduce emissions.Even when we accelerate the transition to zero-emission vehicles,700 million new gasoline and diesel light-and heavy-duty vehicles will still be sold through 2045.Adopting the most efficient existing technologies in all combustion vehicles(like hybrid vehicles)and making vehicles lighter could contribute 15%of the emissions reductions in the All Out scenario.Enacting new or strengthening existing fuel economy standards and greenhouse gas standards and indexing fiscal policies like vehicle purchase fees to vehicle CO2 emissions performance are proven strategies to increase the uptake of such technologies.Turnover is a key challenge to rapidly decarbonizing the fleet of vehicles currently on the road;the average light-duty vehicle remains on the road for 18 years and the average heavy-duty vehicle for 16 years.Complementing the transition to zero-emission vehicles with policies to replace older vehicles faster contributes 14%of the All Out scenarios emissions reductions;these include measures like fleet-renewal programs,low-emission zones,and vehicle inspection programs.iiiICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CReducing peoples dependence on cars in urban areas and improving freight logistics contributes 18%of the All Out reductions.Many cities have had success reducing car dependence with strategies such as investing in public transport,building cycling and walking infrastructure,and prioritizing space for people over cars.Similar measures could be emulated or directly replicated in other cities.Similarly,actions to improve freight logistics include improving vehicle routing and increasing vehicle utilization.Decarbonizing the electricity and hydrogen used in zero-emission vehicles contributes 11%of the All Out reductions.Key actions here include regulatory and fiscal measures that accelerate the adoption of renewables in the grid and ensuring that green hydrogen is produced with additional renewable energy capacity.Implementing the All Out approach at the pace required to realize these CO2 emissions benefits would require unprecedented cooperation within and among countries.Still,additional in-sector strategies and carbon removal technologies that are under development would be needed to supplement the All Out strategies if we are to close the gap with the 1.5C target.Whether we can fully close the gap depends on whether the political will exists to implement potent decarbonization measures.But what is certain,to have a chance at limiting warming to 1.5C,the time to act is now.ivICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CTABLE OF CONTENTSExecutive Summary .iIntroduction.1Literature review.2Scenario design and methods.5Scenarios.5Baseline.6Advanced ICE Technology.6Avoid and Shift.8Ambitious ZEV Sales.11Fleet Renewal.12All Out.13Emission trajectories.13Results.15Annual emission trends.15Compatibility with Paris Agreement temperature pathways.15Regional and residual emissions.17Discussion.19Key highlights.19Future research .20References.21vICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CLIST OF FIGURESFigure ES-1.Well-to-wheel CO2 emission pathways for light-and heavy-duty vehicles compatible with 2C,1.7C,and 1.5C of warming without temperature overshoot(all 67%likelihood).iFigure ES-2.Cumulative well-to-wheel CO2 emissions in the Baseline and All Out scenarios and relative mitigation potential of each strategy,with reference lines for vehicle carbon budgets compatible with 1.5C,1.7C,and 2C targets.iiFigure 1.Global energy intensity improvement of new light-duty ICE vehicles in 2035 compared to 2020 in the Advanced ICE Technology scenario.7Figure 2.Global energy intensity reduction of new heavy-duty vehicles in 2035 compared to 2015 in the Advanced ICE Technology scenario.8Figure 3.Percent reduction in freight VKT from Baseline achieved by freight avoid-and-shift measures in 2050.10Figure 4.Share of total VKT in 2030 by powertrain and vehicle type,with and without Fleet Renewal.13Figure 5.Well-to-wheel CO2 emission pathways for on-road vehicles compatible with 2C,1.7C,and 1.5C of warming(all 67%likelihood).14Figure 6.Annual well-to-wheel CO2 emissions in million tonnes by scenario,with each strategy implemented individually except for Ambitious ZEV Sales with Fleet Renewal(those two strategies)and All Out(all strategies).15Figure 7.Cumulative well-to-wheel CO2 emissions in the Baseline and All Out scenarios and relative mitigation potential of each strategy,with reference lines for vehicle carbon budgets compatible with 1.5C,1.7C,and 2C targets.16Figure 8.Cumulative avoided well-to-wheel CO2 emissions through 2050 compared to Baseline by region and scenario,and residual emissions in the All Out scenario.17Figure 9.Residual well-to-wheel CO2 emissions by vehicle type and powertrain type in the All Out scenario.18LIST OF TABLESTable 1.Analysis of energy modeling methods and carbon budget assumptions in studies that achieved alignment with a 1.5C pathway.4Table 2.Summary of the six scenarios constructed for this study.5Table 3.Frequency distribution of the number of cities in each Super Region and population group.9Table 4.Percentile shift assumed for cities in each population group within Super Regions.9Table 5.City pairs where percentile shift results in City A in the shifted scenario resembling City Bs kilometers traveled by car per person in the Baseline,by Super Region.9Table 6.Global improvements in freight travel and load factor by year,geography,and vehicle type.10Table 7.Used zero-emission vehicle powertrain shares in the Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario by region.121ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CINTRODUCTIONThe on-road transportation sectorcars,buses,trucks,and two-and three-wheelersis responsible for over 20%of anthropogenic carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions globally.Previous ICCT analysis showed that while ambitious policies to phase out sales of new internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles could reduce global vehicle emissions in line with a 2C pathway with 67%confidence,further strategies are needed to close the gap with a 1.5C pathway(Sen&Miller,2022).The 1.5C pathway is crucial,as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)projects limiting warming to that amount is needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change(IPCC,2018).The carbon budget for the 1.5C pathway is about one-third of the budget of the 2C pathway,and even the less-ambitious 1.7C pathways carbon budget is about 60%of the budget of the 2C pathway(Friedlingstein et al.,2022).Thus,aligning global vehicle CO2 emissions with either a 1.7C or 1.5C pathway(both with 67%confidence)would require emission reductions beyond those that come from phasing out sales of new ICE vehicles.One approach is to accelerate ZEV adoption even more.However,in the Ambitious scenario in the latest ICCT study(Sen&Miller,2023),sales of new ICE vehicles are phased out by 2035 for light-duty vehicles and 2040 for heavy-duty vehicles in major markets,with a 5-year lag(2040 for light-duty vehicles and 2045 for heavy-duty vehicles)for developing countries that do not have any supporting policies in place at present.These expectations are in line with most of the current literature(e.g.,United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,2021;BloombergNEF,2023;and International Energy Agency IEA,2021)and relying on a faster transition would mean pushing the feasibility significantly under the already ambitious set of options.In particular,this would require rapid zero-emission vehicle(ZEV)adoption in low-and middle-income countries(Cazzola&Santos Alfageme,2023).We therefore investigate the potential of complementary strategies in this study.Other studies addressing this question tend to focus on a handful of approaches,either separately or grouped as a package.These include avoid-and-shift measures for passenger and freight transport that reduce vehicle travel or shift it to more sustainable modes;for passenger vehicles,this means things such as walking,biking,and public transportation(Institute for Transportation and Development Policy ITDP,2021)and for freight vehicles,it means things like improved logistics and potential shift to modes such as rail(Kaack et al.,2018).Another strategy involves restricting the age of used vehicle imports to improve air quality and fuel efficiency,and to ensure that more electric vehicles are imported(United Nations Environment Programme UNEP,2021).Promoting fleet renewal by removing older vehicles and incentivizing purchase of newer electric or more fuel-efficient vehicles is another(Kagawa et al.,2013).There are also efforts to accelerate the improvement in ICE vehicle technologies through efficiency standards until a mandated ICE phaseout is in effect(Cazzola et al.,2019).These five,along with ensuring zero-carbon electricity and hydrogen for vehicles,are also the strategies that this study considers for supplementing the accelerated ZEV sales strategy.The ICCT partnered with several prominent research organizations to leverage their expertise for this analysis.We worked with the ITDP and the International Transport Forum(ITF)on passenger avoid and shift;the IEA on freight avoid and shift and general modeling guidance;and UNEP on used vehicles.Researchers at these organizations provided inputs from their existing research,reviewed ICCTs modeling assumptions,and provided critical feedback on the results and insights from this study.The next sections describe how we integrated the research of these organizations into the design of this study while considering other literature in the field.After that,we detail the parameters used to model each of the strategies,the underlying data used,the scenarios modeled,and the key results.We conclude with a discussion of the results that also highlights limitations and identifies the scope of future research suggested by this analysis.2ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CLITERATURE REVIEWConsiderable research exists on the five mitigation strategies that are the focus of this study.While an accelerated transition to ZEVs for used imports is not explicitly considered in the literature,there is research that quantifies exports of used vehicles and the impact of restrictions on imports of used vehicles by setting limits on age or only allowing certain power train types.UNEPs assessment was that 62 countries have“very good”policies that restrict older vehicle imports(UNEP,2021).In the European Union(EU),the performance of used vehicles traded among EU Member States improved steadily from 2009 to 2018 with respect to air pollutant and carbon emissions(Velten et al.,2019).Meanwhile,in African countries that adopted used vehicle restrictions,there was not necessarily an increase in sales of new vehicles between 2015 and 2019(Ayetor et al.,2021).The passenger transport avoid-and-shift literature focuses on shifting car travel to public transportation or walking and/or biking through various measures.These include densification and mixed-use and transit-oriented development;implementing low-emission zones,congestion pricing,or parking restrictions in city centers;expanding and subsidizing public transit;and investing in bike lanes,sidewalks,and bus lanes.Most studies found that a comprehensive approach combining the development of multimodal transportation and densification(Lah et al.,2019)with supportive pricing signals(ITF,2023)can considerably shift activity from cars to more sustainable modes of transportation.When combined with high fleet electrification,this can align the transportation sector with the 2C pathway(ITDP,2021).Studies in the United States Los Angeles Metropolitan Area(Chester et al.,2013)and in Germanys Ruhr Metropolitan Region(Mller&Reutter,2022)found resulting reductions in urban car use to be 200%and close to 50%,respectively,from passenger transport avoid-and-shift measures.The freight avoid-and-shift literature focuses on improving the logistics efficiency of trucks and on mode shift to rail.Long-term strategies such as improved routing,platooning,data sharing between carriers,and higher vehicle utilization can reduce emissions(Mulholland et al.,2018).However,their adoption needs to make financial sense and come with requisite consumer demand,infrastructure availability,cooperation between organizations,and legal frameworks to ensure this cooperation(Pfoser,2022).Researchers also evaluated multiple scenarios for mode shift from truck to rail and found that a significant exogenous shift such as government intervention that requires transporters to use the one mode over the other would be needed to substantially reduce energy consumption(Pedinotti-Castelle et al.,2022).The literature on ICE technology improvement can generally be divided into analyses of light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles.This is not surprising,given the differences in vehicle design,operations,and potential for increased technical efficiency.For light-duty vehicles,the analysis has primarily focused on regulations to improve vehicle standards.Fuel efficiency improvement has been shown to be dependent on structural factors such as market concentration,technology cost,and manufacturer heterogenity(Elmer,2016),and analysis of historical vehicle efficiency trends found that fuel economy standards ensure efficiency improvements that are otherwise largely driven by vehicle segment preferences,prices,and electrification(Teter&Paoli,2021).For heavy-duty vehicles,it was estimated that new trucks that adopt technology packages that are either already commercialized or will be commercialized by 2030 can reduce fuel consumption by more than one-third(Delgado et al.,2016).In Europe(Basma&Rodrguez,2023)and the United States(Ragon et al.,2023),ICE efficiency improvements were found to be cost-effective because the higher purchase cost is offset by lower fuel costs and because there are societal benefits from reduced emissions.3ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CFleet renewal literature has generally analyzed existing programs that offer“cash for clunkers”(Naumov et al.,2023)and similar programs that have been proposed.Policies that support replacing inefficient vehicles with low-emission vehicles(Keith et al.,2019)and that provide tax breaks to incentivize replacement(Laborda&Moral,2019)have been implemented in several jurisdictions,but the age beyond which vehicles are targeted for fleet renewal varies widely.On an international scale,implementing a 16-year age limit for heavy-duty vehicles in G20 economies could result in significant public health benefits(Jin et al.,2021).An upcoming ICCT paper estimates the greenhouse gas(GHG)and air pollutant emission reductions,subsidy costs,and monetized GHG mitigation and public health benefits of a potential fleet renewal program in Germany(Morrison et al.,forthcoming).It finds that incentives for new vehicle purchase would achieve GHG mitigation at costs within the range of Germanys estimated social cost of carbon and lower than the penalties that must be paid by automakers that miss their CO2 emission standards targets for new vehicle sales.It further finds that fleet renewal incentive policies can have a net social benefit when the public health benefits of reduced air pollution are quantified with the GHG emissions mitigation.Several recent studies of Paris Agreement-compatible pathways using integrated assessment models(IAM)focused on transportation.In one study,adding transport-specific policies that focus on improving ICE efficiency,accelerating ZEV adoption,lowering fuel carbon content,and reducing vehicle travel to the Energy-Environment-Economy Macro-Economic(E3ME)IAM resulted in emission reductions consistent with a 2C pathway(Mercure et al.,2018).Even in more top-down analyses that did not specifically model transportation policies such as Luderer and Kriegler(2016)and Kuramochi et al.(2018),rapidly transitioning to ZEVs and reducing travel demand were identified as the key drivers for helping the sector to meet Paris targets.The need for demand-side efforts was also mentioned in meta studies(e.g.,Mundaca et al.,2019)and studies that specifically focused on reducing the dependence on carbon removal to meet 1.5C targets(e.g.,Van Vuuren et al.,2018).Studies that have focused on the road transportation sectors emissions trajectory and alignment with Paris-compatible pathways have generally found that through a combination of most or all the strategies discussed above,including accelerated ZEV transition,fleet renewal,avoid and shift,technology improvement,and improved logistics,alignment with a below 2C pathway is possible.As mentioned above,an accelerated ZEV transition by itself could align the road transportation sector with the 2C pathway if most markets phase out sales of new ICE light-duty vehicles by 2035 and sales of new ICE heavy-duty vehicles by 2040(Sen&Miller,2022).While moving from a 2C to a 1.5C pathway was also achieved by different studies,what is considered compatible with 1.5C and the corresponding carbon budgets for road transport vary across those studies.Table 1 provides details about some of the studies that achieved alignment with a 1.5C pathway and outlines the methods adopted to decarbonize the energy system and the assumptions regarding the global carbon budget.These studies applied other mitigation measures in addition to ZEV transition,fleet renewal,technology improvement,and avoid and shift.These include a carbon tax of over$2,000 per tonne of CO2 in addition to a“low-carbon policy”scenario(Zhang et al.,2018);increased local production of goods(Sharmina et al.,2020);various“improve”strategies(Gota et al.,2019);forced retirement of any fossil fuel vehicles while still allowing the sale of“zero-emission”biofuel vehicles by 2050(D.S.Teske,2020);and considerable reduction in travel demand that leads to a nearly flatlining demand for travel in some regions(S.Teske&Niklas,2022).4ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CTable 1.Analysis of energy modeling methods and carbon budget assumptions in studies that achieved alignment with a 1.5C pathway.StudySummary and assumptionsDecarbonization methodsLuderer et al.(2016)Study compares various IAM results and thus other sectors are considered.Carbon removal plays the most significant role in achieving the target.For all transportation,cumulative emissions compatible with this pathway between 2011 and 2100 are about 180250 gigatonnes(Gt)CO2;because the results are in an IAM context,we assume this is tank-to-wheel emissions.The emissions between 2011 and 2020 were around 75 Gt,and that leaves 105170 Gt CO2 that can be emitted.For all transportation,tank-to-wheel emissions account for about 23%of global emissions,and starting from 2021,the global carbon budget for 1.5C is about 360 Gt CO2.This means that transportation is allocated a disproportionate share(about 30P%)of the remaining budget.Electrification,fuel efficiency,activity reduction,fuel content switch(e-fuels and biofuels),and measures from other sectorsKuramochi et al.(2018)An amalgamation of various IAM results and aims to pick the“best”strategies from each.There is no specific target for the transport sector and nothing quantifying the“best”strategy identified(study only says the last fossil fuel vehicle is sold by 2035),nor is there an overall CO2 emissions budget identified;however,study indicates that emissions need to peak by 2025 and reach net-zero by around 2040.Sell last fossil-fuel-powered vehicle by 2035,combined with measures from other sectorsVan Vuuren et al.(2018)An IAM,and a combination of methods are used apart from reducing transportation emissions.Carbon capture and storage plays a significant role,as do energy efficiency,renewable energy,low population growth,and reduction in agricultural emissions,among other strategies.Net-zero emissions are reached around 2050 with a peak close to 2025.Sector-specific emissions are not reported.Fuel efficiency,electrification,and activity reduction or shift to zero-emission transportation modesGota et al.(2018)Study combines nationally determined contributions from various countries to create a 1.5C pathway.The estimated all-transport pathway(tank-to-wheel emissions)has 2050 emissions at around 2 Gt CO2.An aggregate emissions amount between 2020(8 Gt CO2)and 2050 is not specified,but based on the intermediate values for 2030 and 2040(6.6 Gt CO2 and 5 Gt CO2,respectively)and assuming a linear trend,we estimate the cumulative emissions are 160170 Gt CO2,excluding those in 2020.This is substantially higher than the 23%of 360 Gt CO2 estimate for 1.5C pathway compatibility.Bottom-up analysis of nationally determined contributions with optimistic outlook.Combines various fuel efficiency,electrification,avoid-and-shift measures.Sharmina et al.(2020)Primarily focuses on transportation,but industry also contributes to the achievement of the target.No absolute targets are specified but emissions are expected to peak between 2020 and 2030,then decline to net-zero levels by 2050.Avoid and shift,electrification,local production to reduce travel,and improvements in load factorsZhang et al.(2018)The most aggressive 1.5C scenario among those reviewed here,this combines aggressive improvement in energy efficiency with rapid electric vehicle sales,high vehicle occupancy,and switch to mass transit.Net-zero emissions are reached around 2050,based on negative emissions technologies,and the transport sector gets close to zero emissions at around 2100.However,only a carbon tax of more than$2,000 per tonne can achieve this.Note that overshooting is allowed in this model:The temperature increase peaks at 1.6C in 2045 and then drops to 1.4C in 2100.High energy efficiency improvement(50%),rapid electric vehicle adoption,high vehicle occupancy,high use of mass transit,carbon taxTeske et al.(2021)1.5C is given a carbon budget of 110 Gt CO2(tank-to-wheel emissions)until 2050 for all transportation modes.This is significantly higher than what is expected if the 23%of 360 Gt CO2 assumption is used.Road transport CO2 emissions reach zero by 2050 without the aid of carbon capture and storage.Road transport travel to be flat between 2020 and 2050,use only zero-emission fuels by 2050,phase out ICE sales by 2030,mandatory 2%improvement in efficiency standards every year 5ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CSCENARIO DESIGN AND METHODSThe following seven strategies were considered to reduce on-road transportation CO2 emissions:Accelerating the transition of new vehicle sales to ZEVs Accelerating the transition of used vehicle imports to ZEVs Further deployment of ICE efficiency technology for new light-duty vehicles Further deployment of ICE efficiency technology for new heavy-duty vehicles Passenger vehicle avoid-and-shift measures in urban areas Freight vehicle avoid-and-shift measures and operational efficiency improvements Fleet renewal strategies to shift vehicle activity from older ICE vehicles to new vehiclesA detailed discussion of how each of these strategies was implemented is in the expanded methodology document published under a separate cover.The exception is the first measure,accelerating new ZEV sales adoption;that is based on Sen and Miller(2023;henceforth referred to simply as Sen and Miller)and full details are in that paper.SCENARIOSSix scenarios were constructed:Baseline,Ambitious ZEV Sales,Ambitious ICE Technology,Avoid and Shift,Fleet Renewal,and All Out.Table 2 provides the key highlights of the scenarios,and the subsequent subsections discuss some of the details regarding how they were constructed.Historical and projected vehicle CO2 emissions for each of the six scenarios were calculated using version 2.2 of ICCTs Roadmap Model(ICCT,2022).The level of ambition chosen in each of these strategies was designed to reflect options that are ambitious but within the realm of technological and political feasibility in terms of implementation through 2050.As much as possible,this study adopted methods and model measures that are near the middle of the range of ambitious scenarios formulated by other researchers.While the results are presented between 2020 and 2050,all scenarios(and temperature pathways)have the same historical inputs and emission results from 2020 to 2022.Table 2.Summary of the six scenarios constructed for this study.ScenarioDescriptionBaselineBaseline ZEV transition based on adopted policies and conservative market developmentAdvanced ICE TechnologyTechnologically feasible improvement in ICE vehicle efficiency globallyAvoid and ShiftWorldwide reduction of passenger car travel in metropolitan areas to match similar cities in the same world regions in which there is less vehicle travel,and reduction of freight vehicle travel and load factor through improvement in freight logistics and operationsAmbitious ZEV SalesWorldwide phaseout of new ICE sales by 2045,with faster phaseout in major markets and phaseout of used ICE imports with appropriate lags for both light-and heavy-duty vehiclesFleet RenewalWorldwide fleet renewal measures to phase out vehicles over a certain age from the fleetAll OutEverything above Net-Zero Electricity Grid 100%Green Hydrogen by 20506ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CBaselineThe Baseline scenario is outlined in Sen and Miller and accounts for the projected effects of adopted policies and anticipated market developments affecting ZEV sales through 2050.Importantly,the Baseline scenario is not a forecast of the future,but rather a plausible pathway of what could happen in the absence of new policies.It serves as a reference case to evaluate the benefits of further policy actions.Adopted policies are modeled based on ICCTs policy analysis in each region and market potential is based on a combination of ICCT studies,the IEAs Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS;IEA,2020),and expert judgment,with the aim of reflecting plausible market growth in the absence of further policies.Market development in the absence of adopted policies is cautiously optimistic,and the Baseline scenario assumes ZEV adoption proceeds globally,albeit with a lag in countries that have not yet adopted vehicle efficiency standards or other policies to promote ZEVs.We assumed that adopted policies are kept in place and complied with,not rolled back or partially implemented.For electricity grid emissions,emission factors from STEPS are used.For hydrogen production emissions,emission factors are based on previous ICCT analysis(Bieker,2021).In every other scenario,unless otherwise specified,the same assumptions for electricity grid and hydrogen production emission factors are used.Advanced ICE TechnologyThe Advanced ICE Technology development scenario is paired with the Baseline assumptions and both light-duty and heavy-duty technology developments are considered.For light-duty vehicles,the energy intensity of ICE vehicles improves according to feasible technological pathways using technological innovations that are currently available.Six representative regions are chosen and based on these,the pathways for all other regions are defined(see the expanded methodology document published under a separate cover for mapping).The six regions are the United States,the European Union,China,Japan,South Korea,and India.These are the six largest light-duty vehicle markets and relatively comprehensive data on fleet characteristics(Shen et al.,2023)and potential technological efficiency pathways(Lutsey,2018)is available.Using the National Highway Traffic Safety Administrations Corporate Average Fuel Economy(CAFE)model(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,2012),technological pathways are modeled.Strong hybrid engine technology(Tran et al.,2021)was chosen along with packages to reduce aerodynamic drag and glider weight by more than 20%.Energy efficiency improvement in 2035 compared to 2020 ranges from 24%to 42%;the variability across regions arises primarily from differences in the initial energy intensity in 2020,and the higher percentage improvements are generally achieved in regions with high initial fuel consumption(Figure 1).7ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2C24B%Energy intensity reduction in 2035 compared to 2020Figure 1.Global energy intensity reduction of new light-duty ICE vehicles in 2035 compared to 2020 in the Advanced ICE Technology scenario.We considered several ICCT studies in developing the assumptions for heavy-duty vehicles(Figure 2).For the United States,a study projected post-2027(i.e.,after Phase 2)energy intensity reductions from 10%for heavy-duty tractors to over 20%for most other vehicle types(Ragon et al.,2023).For India,a technology potential and cost effectiveness study for heavy-duty vehicles is used(Yadav et al.,2023).Per that study,a 40P%reduction in energy intensity by 2030 can be achieved,depending on the vehicle type,by using the strongest vehicle package;the strongest package included strong hybridization with low-rolling-resistance tires and reduced aerodynamic drag.For the European Union,an analysis of decarbonization pathways(Basma&Rodrguez,2023)is used to determine the technology potential,and the maximum potential ranges from 239%,depending on the diesel truck class.For every other region,we use a 2016 ICCT analysis of global HDV technology potential(Delgado et al.,2016)in which the maximum technology improvement potential estimated ranges between 30%and 36%for rigid trucks and 40%and 52%for tractor-trailers.These efficiency improvements are phased in by 2035.8ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2C0%5 %05EP%Percentage reduction in energy intensity from 2015 by 2035AustraliaBrazilCanadaChinaEUIndiaJapanMexicoOtherEuropeRussiaSouthKoreaUKUSARest ofWorldVehicleBusMDTHDTFigure 2.Global energy intensity reduction of new heavy-duty vehicles in 2035 compared to 2015 in the Advanced ICE Technology scenario.Avoid and ShiftThe Avoid and Shift scenario combines Baseline assumptions with fewer passenger and freight kilometers traveled.This reduces vehicle activity for both vehicle segments.For passenger travel,a city-level database from ITF(ITF,2023)is utilized to group similar cities by region and population(Table 3).This database has passenger kilometers traveled for each city in 2022 and then Baseline and“High Ambition”avoid-and-shift scenarios for 2050;the High Ambition scenario assumes less growth in travel than the Baseline.The database also has population data for these cities,including population projections.Each city is ranked in terms of passenger kilometers per capita for car travel(pkm per capita)in 2050 for the Baseline and High Ambition avoid-and-shift scenarios.These cities are grouped together into“Super Regions”based on similar geographic and socioeconomic characteristics and then binned into population groups.A new scenario,the ICCT Shift scenario,is created by adjusting the percentile distribution of cities with higher per capita passenger kilometers travel to resemble a city that had lower pkm per capita in the Baseline(Table 4).For example,in a group of U.S.cities,a 35 percentile shift in the ICCT Shift scenario would make Miamis pkm per capita resemble that of New York in the Baseline(in terms of vehicle kilometers traveled VKT in Table 5).The idea is to provide policymakers in a group of cities that are likely to have similar geographic and population characteristics with concrete examples that they can seek to emulate.The percentile shift chosen for the ICCT Shift scenario varies by region,as not all regions will have similar capacity to reduce pkm per capita,and the shifts are designed to 9ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2Censure that the final regional reduction results are in between those of ITFs High Ambition scenario and ITDPs Compact City Scenario(ITDP,2021),which had even more aggressive assumptions in terms of the potential for urban avoid and shift.It is assumed that the rate of reduction of pkm is slower in the early years,and only 25%of the total reduction potential to 2050 is achieved between 2022 and 2030.Between 2030 and 2040,50%of the total potential is achieved,and the remainder is achieved between 2040 and 2050.We assume that passenger travel shifts to zero-emission modes such as walking,cycling,or zero-emission public transit.The global reduction in passenger car travel in 2050 is 37%compared to the Baseline scenario.Table 3.Frequency distribution of the number of cities in each Super Region and population group.Super Region100,000 500,000 1,000,0005,000,0005,000,000TotalAfrica1991,44329883202,043ASEAN994Asia high-income2638513486China8496617598251,348Europe23753280718928India1,0399615952122,123Latin America56224133365877Other Asia-Pacific290379Other high-income32Total2,5395,59,234Table 4.Percentile shift assumed for cities in each population group within Super Regions.Super Region100,000500,0001,000,0005,000,0005,000,000Africa2530354045ASEAN3535353550Asia high-income3030353540China3535353535Europe2020202525India4040455050Latin America3535354040Other Asia-Pacific3030303030Other high-income3030303535Table 5.City pairs where percentile shift results in City A in the shifted scenario resembling City Bs kilometers traveled by car per person in the Baseline,by Super Region.Super RegionCity duos(A B)Percentile shiftAbsolute shift km per capitaPercent reduction in VKT per capita AfricaCairo Casablanca451,817 69462%ASEANBandung Manila40668 51024%Asia high-incomeSeoul Tokyo402,255 1,13050%ChinaChaozhou Qingdao35749 44640%EuropeLondon Amsterdam259,742 5,55643%IndiaPune Chennai501,005 57143%Latin AmericaBuenos Aires Lima402,735 2,46110%Other Asia-PacificDhaka Multan302,998 1,49950%Other high-incomeMiami New York3513,322 7,26045ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CFor freight travel,the calculations are based on the IEAs Future of Trucks(Teter et al.,2017)report,with modifications when certain scenarios are achieved and to account for urban/nonurban travel mix.The IEA study has three scenarios:4C compatible,2C compatible,and“well-below”2C compatible.In each scenario,the target numbers for travel reduction and load factor improvement are assumed to be achieved by 2060.In this study,we assume these improvements on an accelerated time frame,with the 2C compatible improvements achieved by 2040 and the well-below 2C compatible improvements achieved by 2050.Starting from 2022,linear achievements to the 2040 value are assumed and then again between 2040 and 2050,linear achievements are assumed.The global improvements by year,geography,and vehicle type are listed in Table 6.Table 6.Global improvements in freight travel and load factor by year,geography,and vehicle type.YearGeographyVehicle typeVKT improvement(percentage decrease from Baseline)Load factor improvement(percentage increase from Baseline)2040UrbanLCV19132040NonurbanLCV6132040UrbanMDT25132040NonurbanMDT21132040BothHDT21132050UrbanLCV22162050NonurbanLCV7162050UrbanMDT30162050NonurbanMDT25162050BothHDT2516Due to the differences in urban/nonurban travel split by vehicle category across countries,the final reduction in freight vehicle VKT varies across countries,as shown in Figure 3 for year 2050.The global average is 23%.14&%Reduction in VKT from BaselineFigure 3.Percent reduction in freight VKT from Baseline achieved by freight avoid-and-shift measures in 2050.11ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CAmbitious ZEV SalesThe Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario follows Sen and Miller in defining the trajectory of new vehicle sales and adds a restriction on used vehicle imports.For new vehicles,an accelerated global transition to ZEVs is assumed,with all countries phasing out ICE vehicle sales no later than 2045.Leading electric vehicle markets with existing ambitious policies(the United States,China,the European Economic Area,and Canada)are expected to do this faster:by 2035 for light-duty vehicles and 2040 for heavy-duty vehicles.A second set of markets(India,Mexico,Japan,and South Korea)are assumed to phase out sales of ICE light-duty vehicles by 2040 and all vehicles by 2045.All other countries are assumed to have ZEVs be 100%of new vehicle sales by 2045,with a few exceptions;the exceptions include countries such as Chile,New Zealand,Singapore,and Ukraine,and such countries have either already signed a more ambitious international commitment(i.e.,the ZEV Declaration or the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium-and Heavy-Duty Vehicles),or have a national policy that is more ambitious than a 2045 phaseout.These are placed on an accelerated timeline consistent with those commitments.In addition,detailed trade flows of used vehicles were simulated based on a UNEP(2021)database that tracks global used vehicle imports of light-duty vehicles by more than 200 countries and territories from major export markets including the United States,European Union,Japan,and South Korea.For heavy-duty vehicles,the approximate share of used imports in the vehicle fleet is based on IEAs MoMo(IEA,2018)database.An import age limit of 5 years for light-duty vehicles and 8 years for heavy-duty vehicles is assumed in this accelerated time frame.The age limit is based on the current median of light-duty vehicle age restrictions globally.A 3-year dispensation for Africa is provided based on UNEPs recommendations;this allows vehicle imports of up to 8 years of age for light-duty vehicles and 11 years for heavy-duty vehicles and is due to relatively lax import regulations compared with the rest of the world and because vehicles certified to lagging emission standards with outdated emission control technologies are still being produced and sold on the continent.The power train share of used vehicles in the target country from 2030 onward is determined by the source(vehicle-exporting)markets.For example,if Afghanistan imports 80%of its vehicles from the European Union and 20%from the United States,and the vehicles that are exported from those regions are 60%and 20%ZEVs,respectively,then the share of ZEVs imported by Afghanistan is 52%.Pairing the restrictions on used vehicles with the ambitious new vehicle sales scenario ensures that the full ZEV transition of used imports is achieved no later than the year implied by the age limit specified.In the Afghanistan example,if the European Union achieves a 100%ZEV sales share for new vehicles by 2035 and the United States does the same by 2040,then Afghanistan will achieve a 100%ZEV share of used imports by 2045 at the latest.From 2020 to 2030,UNEP and IEAs estimates of current power train shares of used imports are used.The Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario uses the same assumptions regarding hydrogen production as the other scenarios specified above,but uses electricity grid emission factors consistent with IEAs Announced Pledges Scenario,under the assumption that the grid will also be cleaner alongside advancements in ZEV regulations(IEA,2021).Table 7 displays the regional breakdown of used vehicle ZEV sales shares between 2025 and 2050 for light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles in the Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario.12ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CTable 7.Used zero-emission vehicle powertrain shares in the Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario by region.2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Africa and Middle EastAsiaEuropeLatin America98Q%10Yi%9%100db%2008g%300h%HDVLDVFleet RenewalTo maximize the replacement of older ICE vehicles with newer ZEV vehicles,fleet renewal policies are applied in conjunction with the Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario instead of the Baseline scenario.We assume that when older vehicles are removed from the fleet,they are replaced by new vehicles that have the efficiency levels and ZEV shares assumed for new vehicle sales.For example,if the new vehicles sold are 60%ICE and 40%ZEVs,then vehicles that replace the older vehicles will also be sold in the same proportion.The demand for passenger or freight travel that would have been met by those older vehicles is instead met by new vehicles that consume less gasoline and diesel.(There is an argument to be made for only allowing replacement by electric vehicles,but making that assumption creates a disadvantage in the earlier years of the program when a large stock of older vehicles must be retired but an equivalent number of electric vehicles is not available.)No assumptions are made regarding the difference in annual VKT between older vehicles and newer ones.The light-duty vehicle fleet renewal program is designed based on an upcoming ICCT paper(Morrison et al.,forthcoming)which found that the societal benefits from mitigating GHG and air pollutant emissions outweighed the costs of incentivizing new vehicle purchase if the average age of vehicles removed from the fleet was 14 years or more for diesel vehicles and 20 years or more for gasoline vehicles.The heavy-duty vehicle fleet renewal program is designed based on the G20 air quality analysis(Jin et al.,2021)prepared by the ICCT;here the removal age was set at 16,and that is in line with the average retirement age of heavy-duty vehicles.For both light and heavy vehicles,following the recommendation of UNEP,a removal age of 19 years for African countries was modeled.The fleet renewal program is phased in gradually across all world regions between 2026 and 2030,starting with 20%of all eligible vehicles to be removed from the fleet in 2026,40%in 2027,and so on until all eligible vehicles are removed in 2030 and beyond.The 2030 target is chosen in order to maximize the chance of stabilizing emissions and be consistent with the well-below 2C target by removing as many older vehicles as possible(Tanaka&ONeill,2018).This scenario uses the same electricity grid and hydrogen production emission factors as the Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario.Globally,this results in a significant reshuffling of VKT by different powertrains by 2030(Figure 4).For both light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles,there is an increase in the VKT share of ZEV powertrain because activity from older vehicles is largely replaced by new ZEVs.13ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CLDVHDVAmbitiousZEV SalesAmbitiousZEV Sales withFleet RenewalAmbitiousZEV SalesAmbitiousZEV Sales withFleet Renewal0 0Pp0%Percentage of Total VKT5%5Wa(%2%2%9gw%PowertrainZEVDieselGasolineOthersFigure 4.Share of total VKT in 2030 by powertrain and vehicle type,with and without Fleet Renewal.All OutThe All Out scenario combines the other scenariosAmbitious ZEV Sales,Advanced ICE Technology,Avoid and Shift,and Fleet Renewalwith cleaner electricity and hydrogen production pathways.For electricity grid emission factors,IEAs Net Zero Emissions scenario is used,and every country in the world reaches 100%clean electricity grid by 2050.For hydrogen production emission factors,Bieker(2021)held the mix of hydrogen production sources(i.e.,green,blue,and grey,in descending order of emissions intensity)constant for each country from 2030.This scenario assumes that the mix will become increasingly cleaner after 2030 through a linear progression until 2050,when 100%of the hydrogen produced is green hydrogen.EMISSION TRAJECTORIESHere we compare the annual and cumulative emissions from each of the above scenarios with Paris-compatible emission trajectories(Sen&Miller,2023).Transportation budgets are calculated based on shares of global emissions and emissions counted include well-to-tank emissions arising from both upstream fuel extraction and processing and electricity generation.While the literature generally only considers tank-to-wheel emissions for the transportation sector when trying to align emission trajectories with Paris-compatible temperature pathways,this may lead to significant undervaluation of the transportation sectors impact,especially in cases where other sectors are not explicitly modeled.This is because the well-to-tank emissions incurred by generating electricity and producing hydrogen to power ZEVs will increase in future years as these vehicles penetrate the vehicle fleet.Though the well-to-wheel emissions of ZEVs are already substantially lower than those of ICE vehicles(Bieker,2021),well-to-tank emissions share of overall well-to-wheel emissions is expected to increase,even as overall well-to-wheel emissions decline(Teter&Paoli,2021).Therefore,the carbon budget for transport emissions in Sen and Miller and in the present study includes both well-to-tank and tank-to-wheel emissions.Given the relative ease of reducing emissions from road transport compared with other sectors,there is discussion in the literature about whether a lower or higher share than the current share of emissions should be assigned to road transport(S.Teske et al.,14ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2C2022;Napp et al.,2019).Such considerations are beyond the scope of our study and as a result,solely the present-day share is considered when allocating a portion of the carbon budget to road transport and generating the pathways.(See the Results section,below,for a few exceptions related to the All Out scenario and a hypothetical case in which no new vehicle is sold after 2023.)The total anthropogenic carbon budgets are based on IPCC estimates for warming to be limited to 2C with a 67%likelihood of success,and for that the remaining global carbon budget from 2020 onward is around 1,150 gigatonnes(Gt)CO2.In 2020,well-to-wheel emissions from road transport were around 8 Gt CO2,out of about 39 Gt CO2 emitted overall.Assuming a 21%share of emissions for on-road vehicles,as has been the trend in recent years,the remaining budget is approximately 242 Gt CO2 from 2020.We assume that the net-zero date is 2090,and an exponential curve fit leaves a budget of approximately 210 Gt CO2 between 2020 and 2050.For a 67%chance of limiting warming to 1.5C,the available budget between 2020 and 2050 is much smalleraround 84 Gt CO2 when assuming the same 21%share for vehiclesand an exponential pathway consumes most of the budget by 2035 and reaches net zero in 2040.For the 1.7C case with a 67%chance and with the same 21%share,the remaining budget between 2020 and 2050 is around 145 Gt CO2 following an exponential pathway.The 1.7C pathway is set to consume the leftover budget of 2 Gt by 2070.Figure 5 summarizes these three pathways.02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00020202030204020502060207020802090Well-to-wheel CO2 emissions(million tonnes)2C:242 billion tonnes1.7C:147 billion tonnes1.5C:84 billion tonnes2028-62 26-94 24Year when emissionspeak for each pathwayCarbon budget allocatedto road transport for eachpathway without overshoot Percent change in emissionsfrom 2020 to 2050Figure 5.Well-to-wheel CO2 emission pathways for on-road vehicles compatible with 2C,1.7C,and 1.5C of warming(all 67%likelihood).15ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CRESULTSANNUAL EMISSION TRENDSEmissions in the Baseline scenario in 2050 are 21%higher than in 2020(Figure 6).Emissions from every other scenario in 2050 are lower than those in 2020.We find that Avoid and Shift and Advanced ICE Technology have similar trajectories,but the former has greater long-term emissions reduction potential.This is expected because new vehicles are increasingly non-ICE even in the Baseline,and that dampens the long-term emissions reduction potential of the Advanced ICE Technology scenario.Through 2030,both Avoid and Shift and Advanced ICE Technology achieve a similar or even slightly higher rate of emissions reduction compared with Ambitious ZEV Sales.This underscores the effectiveness of such measures to reduce emissions independent of ZEV sales.In the long-term,though,the Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario for new and used vehicles delivers the largest reduction in emissions,71%lower compared to 2020.Adding Fleet Renewal policies that are phased in between 2026 and 2030 further reduces emissions,and 2050 emissions are 81%lower than 2020 emissions.Adding Avoid and Shift,Advanced ICE Technology,Fleet Renewal,and Net-Zero Electricity Generation and 100%Green Hydrogen Production to Ambitious ZEV Sales in the All Out scenario reduces emissions in 2050 by 97%compared to 2020.This shows the combined effect of strategies that on their own are unlikely to close the gap to net-zero emissions by 2050.202020252030203520402045205001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000Well-to-wheel CO2 emissions(million tonnes)-97%-81%-71%-10%-7!%ScenarioBaselineAdvanced ICE TechnologyAvoid and ShiftAmbitious ZEV SalesAmbitious ZEV Sales with Fleet RenewalAll OutFigure 6.Annual well-to-wheel CO2 emissions in million tonnes by scenario,with each strategy implemented individually except for Ambitious ZEV Sales with Fleet Renewal(those two strategies)and All Out(all strategies).COMPATIBILITY WITH PARIS AGREEMENT TEMPERATURE PATHWAYSComparing the cumulative emissions from different scenarios with the three Paris-compatible pathways demonstrates the importance of combining strategies to achieve maximum reduction in emissions.There are 285 Gt of cumulative emissions in the Baseline scenario(20202050)and the All Out scenario avoids 144 Gt of these emissions.The reduction in cumulative emissions from the Baseline by the Avoid and Shift,Advanced ICE Technology,and Ambitious ZEV Sales scenarios are 26 Gt,22 Gt,and 61 Gt,respectively.We evaluated the incremental impact of Fleet Renewal on top 16ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2Cof the Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario because large-scale fleet renewal policies are considerably more effective in reducing emissions when combined with stringent policies to accelerate the transition of new vehicle sales to ZEVs.When Ambitious ZEV Sales is combined with Fleet Renewal,an additional 20 Gt of CO2 emissions can be avoided.Combining all these strategies,including Net-Zero Electricity Grid and 100%Green Hydrogen production,leads to the aforementioned total mitigation potential in the All Out scenario of 144 Gt CO2 and that is enough to reduce cumulative emissions to below the budget for the 1.7C-compatible pathway.A further 40%reduction in cumulative emissions would be needed to align with a 1.5C pathway while avoiding overshoot and if the probability of achievement remains at 67%and road transports share of emissions remains at 21%.The All Out scenario could be considered to align with the 1.5C pathway if we lower the likelihood of achievement from 67%to 50%and increase the sectoral emissions share to 29%.Alternatively,if we keep a 67%confidence in achievement but increase the sector share to 36%,the All Out scenario could align with the 1.5C pathway.As discussed earlier,considerations of whether other sectors would be able to reduce emissions quickly enough to allow road transport to use a larger share of the remaining carbon budget are beyond the scope of this study.To illustrate the“locked-in”emissions of the current road fleet,a hypothetical scenario where no new vehicles are sold beyond 2023 was also considered,and this is without any additional measures implemented.We find that cumulative well-to-wheel emissions between 2020 and 2050 from this measure are 130 Gt,only 10 Gt less than the All Out estimate.This shows that on one hand,using a combination of strategies to reduce CO2 emissions could be almost as effective as taking a drastic measure such as halting all new vehicle sales.However,it also demonstrates that even something as aggressive as stopping new vehicle sales entirely is not sufficient for alignment with the 1.5C pathway.Cumulative well-to-wheel CO2 transportation emissions(billion tonnes)projected from 2020 to 20500500300Dashed lines indicate 2020-2050carbon budget from IPCC Sixth Assessment Report,assuming 67%likelihood and 21%share of allemissions from road vehicles.2C=210 billion tonnesCO2 mitigationby strategy1.7C=145 billion tonnes1.5C=84 billion tonnesAll Out scenario:Emissions after deployingthe above strategiesBaseline:Total emissions2020 to 2050without proposedmitigation strategies-22-61-16Advanced ICE TechnologyAvoid and ShiftAmbitious ZEV SalesClean Electricity and Hydrogen285140-20Fleet RenewalMitigation potential of ambitious but feasible strategies-26Figure 7.Cumulative well-to-wheel CO2 emissions in the Baseline and All Out scenarios and relative mitigation potential of each strategy,with reference lines for vehicle carbon budgets through 2050 compatible with 1.5C,1.7C,and 2C targets.Data labels are rounded to the nearest Gt.17ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CREGIONAL AND RESIDUAL EMISSIONSResidual emissions in the All Out scenario vary from 40%to 60%of the original cumulative Baseline emissions,depending on region.1 The reductions from the Baseline are primarily achieved through Ambitious ZEV Sales,although cleaning the electricity grid and hydrogen production processes also plays a significant role,especially in China,Africa,and the Middle East.Fleet Renewal plays a role comparable to the combined effects of Avoid and Shift and Advanced ICE Technology in the European Union and the United Kingdom because these markets have relatively older vehicle fleets.Across regions,Avoid and Shift generally leads to a slightly larger reduction in emissions than Advanced ICE Technology,but the latter is marginally more important in ASEAN countries and India.05540455055Avoided cumulative well-to-wheel CO2 emissions in billion tonnesASEAN16EU&UK14India7JapanandSouth Korea4OtherAsiaPacific8OtherEurope5US andCanada23LatinAmerica13China28AfricaandMiddle East26Avoided due toAvoid and ShiftAdvanced ICE TechnologyAmbitious ZEV SalesFleet RenewalClean Fuel and HydrogenResidual EmissionsFigure 8.Cumulative avoided well-to-wheel CO2 emissions through 2050 compared to Baseline by region and scenario,and residual emissions in the All Out scenario.Data labels show cumulative mitigation potential of the All Out scenario.Light-duty vehicles are the predominant source of residual emissions in the All Out scenario,and the mix of light and heavy vehicles contribution to residual emissions stays largely constant through 2050.Conventional ICE vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs)continue to be responsible for a large chunk of the emissions from light-duty vehicles.Any remaining ZEV-related emissions by 2050 are from hydrogen combustion,as electricity generation is net zero across all regions in All Out.Further reduction in the emissions of light-duty vehicles beyond those modeled in All Out might be possible through(1)more-stringent fleet renewal regulations(in our study,gasoline vehicles are allowed 20 years of lifetime,higher than the average age for light-duty vehicles,and this affects the number of older vehicles on the road 1 Residual emissions may be defined as those for which abatement remains uneconomical or technically infeasible under the assumptions of a specific model and mitigation scenario(Luderer et al.,2018).18ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2Csignificantly because gasoline vehicles are predominantly light-duty vehicles);(2)more-stringent avoid-and-shift measures;or(3)including PHEVs in a fleet-renewal program in addition to ICE vehicles.Also,assuming 100%electrification is not possible for heavy-duty vehicles,then there is a greater need to achieve net-zero hydrogen production for those vehicles.012345678Well-to-wheel CO2 emissions(billion tonnes)202040V 3042U 4041V 5051%Breakdown of residual emissions by vehicle typeHDVLDV0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5Well-to-wheel CO2 emissions(billion tonnes)202099 3095 4093 5092 20100 3095 4093 5087%Breakdown of residual emissions by powertrainPowertrainICEPHEVZEVVehicleHDVLDV2/3WFigure 9.Residual well-to-wheel CO2 emissions by vehicle type and powertrain type in the All Out scenario.Data labels on the left panel show the emissions by vehicle type.Data labels on the right panel show the share of emissions from ICE vehicles.19ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2CDISCUSSIONKEY HIGHLIGHTSSen and Miller demonstrated that a scenario of Ambitious ZEV Sales encompassing a full phaseout of sales of new non-ZEV vehicles globally by 2045 can ensure that the road transport emissions trajectory is compatible with a below-2C pathway without overshoot.This study shows that a combination of additional strategies could further reduce emissions in line with a 1.7C pathway:ICE technology improvement to reduce energy intensity,avoid-and-shift measures to reduce passenger and freight activity,limiting the age of used vehicle imports,fleet renewal to reduce the number of older ICE vehicles on the road,and ensuring a net-zero electricity grid as well as 100%green hydrogen production processes for fuel cell electric vehicles.Advanced ICE Technology improvements such as strong hybridization of the engine and reducing drag and glider weight to reduce energy intensity are especially effective pre-2030,and during that time,their impact on emission reductions is comparable to that of the Ambitious ZEV Sales scenario.Although ICEs are generally phased out between 2035 and 2045,there is still significant impact from their performance for years to come,as most ICEs that are sold before a phaseout still remain in the fleet by 2050.Independent of order of implementation,the cumulative mitigation potential of ICE efficiency technology improvement is estimated to be around 22 billion tonnes.Avoid and Shift measures are also important in the latter half of the analysis period,as it is expected to take at least a decade to fully implement several measures,including building infrastructure for walking and cycling,building or expanding mass transit projects,and improving logistics for freight vehicles.Independent of order of implementation,the cumulative mitigation potential of the avoid-and-shift measures that we evaluated is estimated to be around 26 billion tonnes.Ambitious ZEV Sales for new vehicles combined with restricting the age of used vehicle sales to no more than 5 years for light-duty vehicles and no more than 8 years for heavy-duty vehicles(both with a three-year dispensation for Africa)could avoid 61 billion tonnes in cumulative CO2 emissions globally.Fleet Renewal measures could accelerate the global CO2 emission reduction benefits of ZEVs by approximately 4 years and ultimately lead to a 10-percentage-point increase in emission reductions in 2050(relative to 2020)compared to Ambitious ZEV Sales without Fleet Renewal.The fleet renewal program evaluated in this study is phased in between 2026 and 2030 and most older vehicles are removed from the fleet and replaced with new vehicles in line with the average efficiency and powertrain type of sales in that year.While in some markets ICEs are still predominant in sales of new vehicles during the initial years of the program,older vehicles replaced after 2035 are increasingly likely to be ZEVs and this magnifies the emissions benefits.The cumulative mitigation potential of fleet renewal measures implemented alongside the Ambitious ZEV Sales strategy is estimated to be around 20 billion tonnes.A net-zero electricity grid following the IEAs Net Zero Emissions scenario and a strategy to ensure that all hydrogen produced to power fuel cell electric vehicles is green hydrogen by 2050 could avoid 16 billion tonnes of cumulative CO2 emissions.This is an important piece of the puzzle for reaching net-zero emissions targets because ZEVs will also need to have near-zero well-to-tank emissions.An All Out scenario combining all of the above could bring global road transport CO2 emissions in line with a 1.7C pathway.This is similar to what a previous ICCT study(Graver et al.,2022)found is achievable for the aviation sector,but is still far from a pathway that aligns with 1.5C.The sizeable work that remains is underscored by another finding of this study,that absent further policy measures,projected CO2 20ICCT REPORT|STRATEGIES TO ALIGN GLOBAL ROAD TRANSPORT WITH WELL BELOW 2Cemissions from vehicles that are already on the road today would exceed the limited carbon budget remaining to avoid overshoot of 1.5C.Indeed,the cumulative emissions from selling no new vehicles going forward are only 10 billion tonnes lower than the All Out scenario when no other measures are implemented.This demonstrates the effectiveness of the strategies that we evaluated in driving rapid CO2 emission reductions,but also highlights the scale of the challenge in reducing emissions from new and used vehicles in time to avoid overshoot of 1.5C.While some additional strategies that could be considered in future studies are mentioned below,carbon removal technologies may also need to play a role if in-sector efforts are not able to bridge this gap.FUTURE RESEARCH Alignment with the 1.5C pathway requires near-zero emissions from vehicles globally before 2040,if we are strict about adhering to a 67%probability of achieving the limited warming,maintaining the same share for road transport in the carbon budget,and an exponential shape to the pathway without overshoot.Though these parameters have been relaxed in other studies to achieve alignment with the 1.5C pathway,that is not desirable when seeking to maximize the likelihood of success without relying on other sectors to make up the difference.To reduce the gap with the 1.5C pathway,future research could evaluate the potential of further in-sector strategies beyond those that we have assessed here,including more ambitious variants of these strategies as well as additional strategies like shifting 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S P R ING 20 24ReportLearn moreAutomotive IndustryIndustry HighlightsOverview2Globally,auto sales in 2024 are forecast to grow modestly compared to 2023.Despite a slowdown in growth,sales volumes in 2024 are expected to surpass 92 million units and reach the highest levels since 2018.1 Vehicle production is expected to decline slightly into 2024 due to a faster-than-expected inventory restocking and a more difficult consumer demand environment.2In 2023,global vehicle sales rose 10.9%as supply chain issues eased worldwide.Production returned to normal levels and inventories were restocked.1 In the U.S.,light vehicle sales increased 13.1%year-over-year(YoY)to 15.5 million units in 2023.3 U.S.vehicle sales are expected to grow to 15.9 million units in 2024,the highest level since 2019.2Chinese auto sales rose to 30.1 million units in 2023,up 11.9%from 2022.4 China continues to dominate the electrified vehicle(EV)market,as over 35%of new vehicles sold in 2023 were EVs.Yearly EV market share is expected to surpass 50%by 2026.5In Europe,sales in 2023 rebounded off a record-low 2022,3 led by Western and Central European Markets.2 The four largest European markets(Germany,France,Italy and Spain)all saw increases in new passenger registrations,with France,Italy,and Spain each growing over 16%.6M&A activity in the automotive sector experienced a significant decline in 2023,reaching the lowest number of transactions closed in the last decade.The number of transactions through the first quarter of 2024 was down 35%YoY.7Public company equity performance in most selected automotive indexes trended upward in the first quarter of 2023,although the Electric Vehicles index underperformed other groups and the overall market.73Global Light Vehicle Sales Grew 11%from 2022 to 20231Global Auto Sales Expected to Grow Modestly in 20241Automotive Partnerships with eVTOLs Expected to Start Service in Coming Years9U.S.Electric Vehicle Market Share Hit New Highs in 2023,but Momentum Has Slowed8Executive SummaryAutomotive M&A Activity in 2023 Fell to a 10 year Low7BrandBestselling VehicleBrand%of 2023 Market Share2022 Rank1.Toyota Corolla10.7.Volkswagen Tiguan6.0#.Honda CR-V4.64.Hyundai Tucson4.5E.Ford F-Series4.42023 in Review and Future ExpectationsGlobal Auto Sales Trends4In 2023,global vehicle sales grew almost 11%YoY.1 As supply chain issues eased,especially related to computer chips,auto production returned to normal levels globally and inventories were restocked across many regions.3 Global car sales increased to nearly 90 million units in 2023,up from 81 million in 2022 and the highest level seen since 2019.China,the largest market in the world,grew considerably at 12%.4 The U.S.rebounded after a poor 2022 with a 13%increase in sales.India remained the third largest single-country car market with 8%growth and 4.1 million units sold.Sales in Europe grew after four years of decline.Japan was close behind with nearly 16%growth and 4.0 million units sold.3 Volumes in Mexico continued to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain issues as the country became the fastest growing large car market in the world,surpassing 1.3 million units sold and a 24%growth rate compared to 2022.10Globally,vehicle sales are projected to increase between 2.5%and 3.0%in 2024,followed by another year of projected modest growth of around 2.0%to 2.5%in 2025.1,2Annual Global Vehicle Sales2023 Global Bestselling BrandsSources:“New Tiguan Generation:Volkswagens Bestseller Celebrates World Premiere in Front of 10,000 Employees.”VW Newsroom.September 19,2023.“World Best Selling Car Ranking 2023.”Focus2Move.January 5,2023.“World Best Selling Car Brands in 2023.”Focus2Move.February 25,2023.All trademarks,trade names,or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners.95.394.390.277.881.581.089.892.294.2-15%-10%-5%0%5%0.020.040.060.080.0100.02002020224F2025FGrowthUnits in MillionsUnitsGrowthSources:“Global car market to hit the speed bumps in 2024.”ING.February 23,2023.0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%Nov-13May-14Nov-14May-15Nov-15May-16Nov-16May-17Nov-17May-18Nov-18May-19Nov-19May-20Nov-20May-21Nov-21May-22Nov-22May-23Nov-232023 in Review and Future Expectations2024 Global Automotive Outlook5In 2024,global vehicle sales are expected to grow modestly due to a recovering supply chain and pent-up demand.Those sales expectations are tempered by elevated vehicle pricing and tough lending conditions.Production in 2024 is expected to remain flat as many geographies have reached inventory equilibrium following a tumultuous few years.2 United States:Vehicle sales in the U.S.are expected to grow at a moderate pace to 15.9 million units in 2024,up from 15.5 million units in 2023.15.9 million units would be the highest annual count since 2019.High interest rates(see chart below)and tight credit conditions,as well as higher sticker prices,are expected to negatively impact sales estimates.Production is expected to continue to grow,leading to higher inventories and the possibility for increased sales incentives.The number of battery electric vehicle(BEV)models available is expected to cross 100 in 2024,offering customers more choices across segments and price points.2China:The 2024 market is expected to see another year of strong growth,with light vehicle sales expected to grow 4.2%.Sales increases are expected to be supported by improving consumer confidence and the continued pent-up demand from pandemic lockdowns.Electrified vehicle(EV)sales are expected to further increase in 2024 as battery prices continue to fall and Chinas EV tax exemption is extended.EV market share is expected to reach 44%for the full year.2Europe:2024 vehicle sales are forecasted at 15.1 million units,up 2.9%from 14.7 million units in 2023.While improving inventory levels are expected to boost sales,recession worries,credit conditions,ending of EV subsidies,and high car prices may moderate that growth.Vehicle production in Europe is estimated to fall 1.8%in 2024,as growing imports from China and already-higher inventory levels are expected to temper manufacturing levels.2Electrified Vehicles:Globally,electrified vehicle sales are expected to increase by nearly 40%to 13.3 million units in 2024.BEV market share is expected to rise to an estimated 16.2%,up from 2023 market share of 12.0%.China is once again expected to be the world leader in BEV sales,but geographies like Europe and India are expected to have more growth.2 As shown on the next page,the U.S.EV market is expected to grow significantly in 2024,albeit less than previously expected.11,12 Average Rate on 48 Month New U.S.Auto LoansSources:FRED2023 in Review and 2024 ExpectationsUnited States Electrified Vehicle Update6Electrified vehicle sales hit an all-time high in the U.S.in 2023,with over 1.1 million BEVs sold.That represents a staggering 53%increase over 2022 BEV sales.Counting HEVs and PHEVs,total EV sales also increased by over 50%in 2023.Despite the record sales numbers,underlying trends could signal the start of a slowdown.Q4 2023 BEV sales were the slowest growing quarter since 2020,and the first two months of 2024 saw declining month over month(MoM)BEV sales.8 Additionally,EV inventories are increasing114 days of supply in December 2023,up from 53 days in 2022 and markedly higher than 71 days for the overall auto industry.13High Prices:The average EV sells for about$51,000.That is down from over$66,000 over a year ago but is still more expensive than the average for all vehicles.Generally,most EVs are higher priced,with 78%in the premium category.14 By December 2023,only two models could be purchased for under$40,000:the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf.15 Additionally,while EV driversGas Prices vs EV Market Penetration in the United StatesSources:Argonne National LaboratoryU.S.Energy Information Administrationsave in gas costs,they generally pay more for insurance and installation of at-home chargers.All in,the average cost of owning an EV over the first five years is$65,000 compared with the average gas vehicle at under$57,000.16 Battery Range and Charging Stations:On top of high prices,77%of consumers worry about lack of charging stations and 73%stress about battery life.16 This“range anxiety”persists even though 93%of U.S.trips were less than 30 miles and U.S.drivers travel only 40 miles per day on average.17Outlook:2024 has not seen a great start for the EV market.Ford and GM have cut production of their EV trucks,other manufacturers have reduced their EV sales projections,and Tesla has warned of slower growth this year.12 Despite these announcements,experts still expect EV sales to grow substantially in 2024,with average projected sales growth of over 40%.11EV=Electrified Vehicles0.00%4.00%8.00.00.00 .00%$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00Feb-18May-18Aug-18Nov-18Feb-19May-19Aug-19Nov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23Nov-23Feb-24Retail Gasoline PricesBEV Monthly Market ShareEV Monthly Market ShareSources:Inside Climate News2024 Projections2023AutoPacificCox AutoS&P Global MobilityBEV Sales(millions)1.131.451.571.75BEV Market Share7.3%9.0.0.0V=Battery Electric VehicleHEV=Hybrid Electric VehiclePHEV=Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle2023 in Review and Future ExpectationsAutonomous Technology Developments7Although leading players in the autonomous vehicle(AV)industry were able to effectively run and expand first commercial operations,and increase funding in 2023,many other companies saw significant setbacks,stopped operations,or exited the market entirely.Below are the key takeaways from the AV industry in 2023 as well as its future potential in 2024 and beyond:Players Expect Regional and Market Consolidation:Market players and industry experts believe that three or fewer companies will capture a dominant share of the market in the coming years.The North American market is expected to have the most players,while in contrast,many experts believe the European market will be dominated by two or fewer players.Although there has been an increase in development and interest in autonomous technology in the auto industry,no company has yet been able to fully reach large-scale commercialization.Some estimates still expect autonomous driving systems with no safety driver in the vehicle could still take up to 10 more years.Expansion of AVs will likely be gradual and on a region-by-region basis.One example of a company adopting a smaller-scale commercialization would be Waymo One,which offers fully autonomous rides in Phoenix,Arizona.Timeline for Autonomous Vehicle Adoption Is Extending:The timeline for adoption of AVs is believed to have slipped by two to three years on average across all autonomy levels.According to a new survey conducted by McKinsey&Company,L4 robo-taxis are now expected to be commercially available in 2030 and fully autonomous trucking by 2028-2031.AV regulations and regulatory challenges have become obstacles for advancement.Regulation,Technology,&Consumer Safety=Bottlenecks:Industry players believe regulation is the biggest bottleneck to the autonomous industry.However,this year these players reported an increased focus on a need for investment in technology.Continued consumer adoption of AVs is also a major concern,with over 66%of leaders pointing to improved safety as a key consideration for consumers.The ability to multitask and do work while driving are considered a secondary consideration.Increased Investments in Software Needed to Achieve Full Autonomy:It is now understood that a significant increase in investment is needed to fully reach L4 and higher levels of autonomy until first commercial launch.Software development will be the major driver of this much-needed investment.Software development and enhancements will have a critical role in pushing technology forward and displaying AVs overall safety.Software is expected to require a significant investment,but it is also expected to be the most profitable of the technology elements for AVs,at around 15%for average margins.Expect Industry Leaders to Experiment with New Monetization Models:As more advanced AVs appear,many industry experts believe new go-to-market models will likely be implemented.Established AV players mainly stick to pay-per-use models,however start-ups and smaller companies prefer subscription models.Industry leaders are also considering pay-per-mile and per-trip models.Sources:“Autonomous vehicles moving forward:Perspectives from industry leaders.”McKinsey&Company.January 5,2024.Hawkins,Andrew J.“Dude,wheres my self-driving car?”The Verge.February 14,2024.“Which Trends are driving the autonomous vehicle industry?”World Economic Forum.November 8,2021.Innovation by Region:In the sample used by McKinsey&Company,companies based in the U.S.are far more likely to report that they are working on one or more of the top five tech trends mentioned in the exhibit below.As an example,33%of companies working on applied AI are based in the U.S.Continued disruptions in the market(e.g.,the recent semiconductor shortage)have dramatically accelerated several underlying technological advancements in the auto industry.Applied AI and Transformative Impact:Applied AI was examined to be the most popular technology trend of the ten transformative trends listed in the exhibit to the right.This technology is set to disrupt multiple aspects of the mobility industry.Prominence of Applied AI within the mobility industry enhances numerous processes,enables automation,and addresses long-standing issues/problems.Following are a few examples:1.Engineering and R&D:Some companies use Applied AI to create and control virtual worlds in which they can“train”specific algorithms that enable autonomous driving.AI algorithms can identify weaknesses in current structures and models,as well as run millions of additional scenarios for use in testing.2.Procurement:Original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)are using Applied AI to identify environmental,social and governance risks along the supply chain.Algorithms can analyze news items about key-specific suppliers to identify potential problems,such as history with corruption,scandals or anything else,much more quickly and efficiently than any human.3.Manufacturing:Using Applied AI in tandem with vision cameras,lidar,and radar,OEMs have been able to improve quality control during manufacturing.For example,a leading automotive manufacturer is using AI-controlled robots to maintain individual vehicle processing and quality standards.AI-infused cameras have led to manufacturers being able to scan and identify even the most minor variations even in reflective paintwork.4.Marketing and Sales:Companies utilize Applied AI to identify customers who might be at risk of choosing another competitor and then create incentives to increase their satisfaction instantly,potentially increasing customer retention and decreasing costs.5.Life Cycle Services:OEMs that incorporate Applied AI into vehicle production and onboarding systems can analyze their customers information and preferences and then make personalized recommendations or enhancements.2023 in Review and Future ExpectationsMobility Technology&Applied AI8The mobility sector has gone under rapid transformation over the past few years due mostly in part to the growth in EVs,autonomous driving,and other technological innovations.A survey done by McKinsey&Company on the mobility sector analyzed and identified the top 10 transformative technologies in the mobility sector and whether companies were already implementing or planned to implement these technologies in the near term.Most of these businesses are focused on innovation and investment related to applied AI systems.Disruptions in the industry are on the horizon for the mobility sector as it is a rapidly changing ecosystem with new innovations being created on a frequent basis.Companies that focus on the top ten transformative technologies influencing the mobility sector can disrupt the industry with new emerging products and services that transform vehicles,provide consumers with new options,and improve revenue streams.Top 10 Transformative Tech Trends in the Mobility Sector1.Advanced Connectivity 2.Applied AI3.Cloud and Edge Computing4.Generative AI 5.Immersive-Reality Tech6.Industrialization of Machine Learning7.Next-Generation Software Development8.Quantum Tech9.Trust Architecture and Digital-Identity Tools10.Web3Top Five Tech Trends that Companies in the Mobility Industry Are Most Likely to Invest In57.6.4.2%7.7%5.1%Applied AIAdvancedConnectivityCloud and EdgeComputingWeb3Immersive-RealityTechSources:“What technology trends are shaping the mobility sector?”McKinsey&Company.February 14,2024.“The future of automotive mobility to 2035.”Deloitte.February 16,2023.Cubiss,Jay.“The Future of Automotive and Mobility.”Forbes.May 5,2021.2023 in Review and Future ExpectationsAir Mobility Update and Select Partnerships9Source:Bigelow,Pete.“Air mobility meets autos:Stellantis,Toyota,Hyundai bring manufacturing muscle to new market.”Automotive News.January 30,2024.Note:All trademarks,trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective ownersHyundai and Supernal:Supernal is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hyundai.Aircraft:V-tailed,tilt-rotor S-A2 aircraft.Plan to select a manufacturing site in the U.S.Expected to get certification for the aircrafts airworthiness through the FAA this year.Plans to launch service in 2028,with S-A2 prototype ready for flight tests in 2024 and preproduction testing in 2026-2027.Los Angeles is likely target for first rollouts,however,no official routes disclosed yet.The auto industry is rapidly changing and many of the biggest companies in this sector are hoping to diversify their portfolios beyond just ground vehicles.Many companies like Hyundai,Toyota,Stellantis and Mercedez-Benz have all invested in air mobility start-ups that could see takeoff in the near future.Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft(eVTOL)could be manufactured in the thousands at already established auto plants and factories.The hope is to allow a new form of transportation for commuters,while also decongesting current highway systems.The eVTOL industry is currently valued at$8.8 billion and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 20%to$37.2 billion by 2030.Toyota and Joby:Toyota invested around$400 million in Joby.In April 2023,Toyota signed long-term agreement to supply key components,such as powertrains,to Joby.Joby plans to open a factory capable of manufacturing 500 aircraft a year in Dayton,Ohio,later this year.Toyota helped Joby set up first production line in Marina,California.New York City has been eyed as the potential first destination for rollouts.Stellantis and Archer:A manufacturing-oriented partnership between auto maker Stellantis and Archer Aviation,one of the leading eVTOL start-ups.Construction on a factory in Covington,Georgia,is currently underway.Expected to begin production in mid-2024 and be capable of eventually producing 650 aircraft per year with space to expand to around 2,300 aircraft per year.Archer secured a$215 million investment from Stellantis,Boeing and United Airlines.Stellantis currently owns more than 38 million shares of Archer stock.Goal is to start service by 2025 in Chicago.Mercedes-Benz/Geely and Volocopter:In 2017,Volocopter raised$780.6 million,which included a$30 million investment from Merceds-Benz.Volocopter has tested aircraft in major markets all around the world including,most recently,New York and Tampa as of November 2023.Commercial Service expected in the summer of 2024 specifically for Paris in time for the Paris Olympic Games.Service would start with the“VoloCity”two-passenger aircraft and eventually plan to expand to larger passenger vehicles as well as drones to carry cargo.15.5 16.4 17.4 17.5 17.2 17.3 17.0 14.7 15.0 13.7 15.5 15.9 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.0Units in MillionsAutomotive Landscape by GeographyNorth American Auto Sales Trends10In 2023,U.S.new light-vehicle sales hit 15.5 million units.This is a 13.1%increase from 2022 and is the highest sales total since 2019,3 but still over 1.8 million units lower than the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average.Despite a United Auto Workers strike that disrupted production,2023 was a surprisingly strong year for U.S.auto sales,as the new vehicle market was bolstered by increased deliveries,improved supply,and higher dealer incentives.New vehicle inventory continued to build through the end of the year,with inventory volume at 2.6 million,an increase of nearly 55%compared to one year ago.Days supply also grew from 60 days at the end of 2022 to 71 by December 2023.182024 forecasted sales in the U.S.are expected to grow modestly to 15.9 million.2 Despite normalizing supply conditions to end of 2023,experts believe that high vehicle prices and elevated interest rates will keep vehicle sales modest in 2024.18 Rising incentive levels may help vehicle affordability in 2024 if production and inventory levels continue to grow.2By category,pickup trucks dominated the U.S.market once again with the top three selling vehicles in 2023.19 BEVs,however,were the fastest growing category.BEVs increased from a 5.4%U.S.market share in 2022 to 7.3%in 2023,with 1.1 million units sold.Including HEVs and PHEVs,the total electrified vehicle market share in the U.S.was 16.8%.8Yearly U.S.Vehicle Sales2023 U.S.Bestselling VehiclesModelMakeUnits SoldChange From 20221.Ford F-Series750,78914.8%2.Chevrolet Silverado555,1486.6%3.Ram Pickup444,927-5.0%4.Toyota RAV4434,94318.6%5.Honda CRV361,45751.8%Sources:“2023 U.S.Auto Sales Figures By Model.”Good Car Bad Car.March 2024.All trademarks,trade names,or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners.Sources:“US Auto Industry Sales Analysis.”GoodCarBadCar.March 2024.Bekker,Henk.“2023(Full Year)International:Worldwide Car Sales.”Best-Selling-Cars.January 19,2024.“S&P Global Mobility Forecasts 88.3M Auto Sales in 2024.”S&P Global.December 14,2023.Automotive Landscape by GeographyChinese Automotive Landscape11Chinese automotive sales in 2023 increased to a record 30.1 million vehicles,up 12%from 2022.Much of the increase came in commercial vehicle sales,up 22%to 4.0 million for the year as commercial sales continued to recover from COVID-19 lows.Aggressive promotional campaigns and steep discounts led to the increased domestic consumption.Exports rose 58%,as sales to Russia increased after many other car manufacturers withdrew from the market following the Russia-Ukraine war.4January 2024 saw reduced sales volumes as dealers pulled back on their year-end discounts.February sales are also expected to be light as dealers shut down for the Chinese New Year holiday.20 Despite a slow start to 2024,sales are expected to increase this year with further post-COVID consumer confidence increases,and as EVs continue to become more affordable with falling battery prices and EV tax exemptions.2BYD topped Volkswagen to become Chinas top-selling car brand in 2023,driven by their dominant electrified vehicle market share.In the last quarter of 2023,BYD surpassed Tesla as the largest global seller of EVs.21 EV monthly market share topped 40%for first time in November 2023.Despite a drop in EV market share to start 2024,monthly share is expected to cross the 50%threshold before the end of the year.5Chinese Monthly Auto SalesSources:China Association of Automobile ManufacturersClean Technica0.0%5.0.0.0 .0%.00.05.0.0E.0%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50EV Monthly Market ShareVehicles in MillionsMonthly Vehicle Sales4-Month Moving AverageEV Monthly Market ShareAutomotive Landscape by GeographyEuropean Automotive Landscape12In 2023,car registrations were up 13.8%in the EU,EFTA and UK combined compared to 2022,with most major markets experiencing significant registration growth.The four largest markets of Germany,France,Italy and Spain grew 7.3%,16.1%,18.9%and 16.7%,respectively.Much of the increase was attributed to increased production due to easing of supply chain issues.Elsewhere in Europe,the UK grew 17.9%and Turkey grew an astonishing 63.2%to nearly 1 million registrations in 2023.Russia and Ukraine both experienced some recovery after a poor 2022.Despite a strong year overall,December registrations actually declined YoY,the first decrease in 16 months.6 The EV market in the EU grew substantially in 2023.BEV volume grew 37%in 2023 to over 1.5 million units registered for the year.For the EU EFTA UK,market share of BEVs grew to 15.7%,up from 13.9%in 2022.Including HEVs and PHEVs,market share of all EVs reached 49.8%in 2023.6Looking forward to 2024,European vehicle sales are expected to grow modestly,around 3%.2 While improved production and better inventory helped grow vehicle sales in 2023,consumers are expected to face headwinds in 2024.Similar to North America,higher interest rates,inflation,elevated vehicle prices,and political and economic risks are expected to temper vehicle sale expectations for 2024.2,22European Monthly Auto Registrations2023 New Car Fuel TypesSource:The European Automobile Manufacturers Association(ACEA)Note:Monthly registrations represent new passenger car registrations in the European Union(EU),European Free Trade Association(EFTA),and the United Kingdom(UK)10.7.3&.2.1.2.7.7 .7.1.1%6.0%-3.8%-10.0%0.0.0 .00.0006009001,2001,500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYear Over Year GrowthNew Registrations in Thousands2021 Registrations2022 Registrations2023 Registrations2024 Registrations2023 YoY Growth35.7.9&.4.7%7.7%2.6%GasolineDieselHybid ElectricBattery ElectricPlug-In HybridOther-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0 .0.0.0.0%Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23Dec-23S&P 500Automotive Aftermarket Parts and RepairAutomotive SuppliersAutomotive MobilityAutomotive OEMsAutomotive DealersElectric Vehicles-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0.0 .00.0.0%1-Jan-2416-Jan-2431-Jan-2415-Feb-241-Mar-2416-Mar-24Public Company Trading StatisticsPublic Company Equity Performance13Over the past two years,the automotive indexes varied significantly in performance.Automotive Mobility rose 59.7%,driven largely by increases in ride-sharing companies since the third quarter of last year.The Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair,Automotive Dealers,and Automotive OEMs indices ended the two-year period up 43.6%,26.5%and 19.2%,respectively.Automotive Suppliers underperformed the S&P 500,decreasing by 2.5%.The Electric Vehicles index declined 53.4%due to significant stock declines at Tesla,Rivian and Lucid.7 In the YTD period ended March 31,2024,the Automotive Mobility index was the largest gainer,up 25.0%.Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair was up 21.4%and Automotive OEMs was up 19.5%,outperforming the S&P 500 gain of 10.8%during that same time period.The Automotive Suppliers and Automotive Dealers indices increased slightly,while the Electric Vehicles index declined nearly 30%as each company in the index has declined over 25%YTD.7Last Two Years Equity Market PerformanceYTD 2024 Equity Market Performance43.6 .1&.5%(53.4%)19.2%(2.5%)59.7!.4.8%3.9%(29.7%)19.5%0.9%.0%Note:Represents the most actively traded public automotive sector companiesSource:S&P Capital IQ as of March 31,202414.8x8.6x5.4x11.3x6.7x8.1x15.1x5.3x6.9x12.3x5.0 x6.1x13.1x6.6x5.4x13.5x7.0 x5.2x0.0 x4.0 x8.0 x12.0 x16.0 x20.0 xAutomotive AftermarketAutomotive DealersAutomotive SuppliersFY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023LTM as of 3/31/2410.6x13.3x10.3x8.5x8.1x6.1x0.0 x4.0 x8.0 x12.0 x16.0 x20.0 xAutomotive OEMsPublic Company Trading StatisticsHistorical Trading Multiples14The Automotive OEMs are trading at 6.1x LTM EPS,down over 4.0 x from their five-year median price-to-earnings(P/E)multiple of 10.3x.The Automotive Aftermarket Index is currently trading in line with their five-year median EV/EBITDA multiple.Historically,the Aftermarket Index has consistently traded around 11.0 x to 15.0 x EV/EBITDA.Automotive Dealer multiples have increased in the last year,currently trading at 7.0 x,up from 5.0 x in 2022.Automotive Suppliers are trading below their five-year median multiple of 6.1x.7Historical P/E Multiples Since 2019Historical EBITDA Multiples Since 2019Note:Multiples have been adjusted historically to reflect corresponding adjustments made in the Automotive Valuation Deck on pages 3-7Source:S&P Capital IQ as of March 31,2024,and company filings5-Year Median:10.3x5-Year Median:13.1x5-Year Median:6.6x5-Year Median:6.1xM&A ActivityHistorical M&A Activity by Quarter15Quarterly M&A activity in the automotive sector has declined over the last two years.As interest rates increased throughout 2022 and 2023,volume fell from 29 deals closed in Q1 2022 to only 11 in Q1 2024.On a yearly basis,deal activity slowed in 2020 due to concerns from COVID-19,but volume bounced back in 2021 and the first half of 2022.In 2023,volume fell to only 60 transactions closed,the lowest total in the last decade.7Automotive Industry Quarterly M&ANote:All transactions with available target financials closed in the respective time periodSource:S&P Capital IQAutomotive Industry Yearly M&A2423237530356002120222023Q1 2024May 2023May 2023May 2023has been acquired byApr.2023has been acquired byApr.2023has been acquired byMay 2023has been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byFuel and Retail BusinessIber-Oleff BrasilM&A ActivityNotable Industry M&A Transactions16Mar.2024has been acquired byDec.2023has been acquired byDec.2023has been acquired byOct.2023has been acquired byOct.2023has been acquired byFeb.2024has been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byOct.2022Jul.2022Jul.2022Jul.2022Jul.2022Sep.2022Impero Jersey Corp.Ltd.Digital Mobility BusinessNote:All trademarks,trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective ownersSelect Kroll Automotive Transaction ExperienceAirxcel,Inc.,a portfolio company of L Catterton,has completed a comprehensive reorganization transaction.Solvency OpinioneHi Car Services Limited was acquired by a consortium of investors including its chairman,MBK Partners Fund IV,L.P.,and Baring Private Equity Asia Limited.Financial advisor to the special committee of independent directors of eHi Car Services Limited.Fairness OpinionSORL Auto Parts,Inc.(NasdaqGM:SORL)has been acquired by an insider-led consortium in a going private transaction.Financial advisor to the special committee of independent directors of the board of directors of SORL Auto Parts,Inc.Fairness OpinionAmerican Trailer World Corp.,a portfolio company of Bain Capital,LP,has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Solvency OpinionSolvency OpinionJHT Holdings,Inc.has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of JHT Holdings,Inc.KAR Auction Services,Inc.(NYSE:KAR)has completed the spin-off of IAA,Inc.Solvency OpinionFinancial advisor to the board of directors of KAR Auction Services,Inc.Fenix Parts,Inc.has been acquired by Stellex Capital Management LP.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Fenix Parts Inc.Fairness OpinionFairness OpinionDaimler AG(XTRA:DAI)has settled two arbitration matters with the Federal Republic of Germany related to its JV interest in Toll Collect GmbH.Financial advisor to the board of management of Daimler AG and Daimler Financial Services AG.17Note:All trademarks,trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective ownersSelect Kroll Automotive Transaction ExperienceSolvency OpinionChassis Brakes International B.V.,a portfolio company of KPS Capital Partners,LP,has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Chassis Brakes International B.V.AxleTech International,LLC,a portfolio company of The Carlyle Group,has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of AxleTech International,LLC.Solvency OpinionFairness OpinionUQM Technologies Inc.has sold newly issued common shares to Hybrid Kinetic Group Ltd.Financial advisor to the board of directors of UQM Technologies Inc.Atlas Crest Investment Corp.entered into a business combination agreement with Archer Aviation.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Atlas Crest Investment Corp.Fairness OpinionCap-Con Automotive Technologies Ltd.,a portfolio company of The Jordan Company,has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Cap-Con Automotive Technologies Ltd.Solvency OpinionSolvency OpinionTekfor Global Holdings Ltd.,a portfolio company of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts&Co.,has completed an internal restructuring.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Tekfor Holding Germany GmbH.Solvency OpinionChassix Inc.has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Chassix Inc.Fairness OpinionJohnson Controls Inc.has sold its Power Solutions business to Brookfield Business Partners L.P.Financial advisor to the board of directors of Johnson Controls Inc.18Note:All trademarks,trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective ownersSources191.“Global car market to hit the speed bumps in 2024.”ING.February 23,2023.2.“S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3M auto sales in 2024.”S&P Global.December 14,2023.3.Bekker,Henk.“2023(Full Year)International:Worldwide Car Sales.”Best-Selling Cars.January 19,2024.4.“China sales surge in December and 2023.”Just Auto.January 12,2024.5.Pontes,Jose.“25%of New Car Sales in China Were 100%Electric in 2023!”CleanTechnica.February 2024.6.“New car registrations; 13.9%in 2023;battery electric 14.6%market share.”European Automobile Manufacturers Association(ACEA).January 18,2024.7.S&P Capital IQ.April 2023.8.“Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates Historical Data.”Argonne National Laboratory.April 2024.9.Bigelow,Pete.“Air mobility meets autos:Stellantis,Toyota,Hyundai bring manufacturing muscle to new market.”Automotive News.January 30,2024.10.MND Staff.“Car sales in Mexico reached highest level since 2018.”Mexico News Daily.January 5,2024.11.Gearino,Dan.“U.S.Electric Vehicles Sales Are Poised to Rise A Lot in 2024,Despite What You May Have Heard.”Inside Climate News.February 8,2024.12.Dugan,Kevin T.“A Once Unthinkable Question:Could Electric-Vehicle Sales Decline This Year?”Intelligencer.February 14,2024.13.Financial Post Staff.“Top headlines:EVs pile up at U.S.dealer as inventories hit record high.”Financial Post.December 15,2023.14.Domonoske,Camila.“EVs won over early adopters,but mainstream buyers arent along for the ride yet.”NPR.February 7,2024.15.“A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S.in 2023,According to Estimates from Kelley Blue Book.”Cox Automotive.January 9,2024.16.Lee,Medora.“Heres why people arent buying EVs in spite of price cuts and tax breaks.”USA Today.November 14,2023.17.Marx,Paris.“What happened to EVs?”Business Insider.January 3,2024.18.“Cox Automotive Forecast:U.S.Auto Sales Expected to Finish 2023 Up More Than 11%Year Over Year,as General Motors Retains Top Spot,Hyundai Motor Group Jumps Past Stellantis.”Cox Automotive.December 27,2023.19.“2023 U.S.Vehicle Sales Rankings Every Vehicle Ranked by Sales Volume.”GoodCarBadCar.March 2024.20.Jin,Qian.“Top-Selling car brands in January 2024 in China VW overtook BYD to become No.1.”CarNewsChina.February 8,2024.21.Dnistran,Iulian.“VW,Chinas Long-Time Top-Selling Car Brand,Was Dethroned by BYD in 2023.”InsideEVs.January 25,2024.22.Winton,Neil.“Europes Auto Profitability To Slip In 2024,But Watch Out For 2025.”Forbes.February 14,2024.For more information,please contact:About KrollAs the leading independent provider of risk and financial advisory solutions,Kroll leverages our unique insights,data and technology to help clients stay ahead of complex demands.Krolls global team continues the firms nearly 100-year history of trusted expertise spanning risk,governance,transactions and valuation.Our advanced solutions and intelligence provide clients the foresight they need to create an enduring competitive advantage.At Kroll,our values define who we are and how we partner with clients and communities.Learn more at .M&A advisory,capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United States are provided by Kroll Securities,LLC(member FINRA/SIPC).M&A advisory,capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United Kingdom are provided by Kroll Securities Ltd.,which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority(FCA).Valuation Advisory Services in India are provided by Kroll Advisory Private Limited(formerly,Duff&Phelps India Private Limited),under a category 1 merchant banker license issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.2023 Kroll,LLC.All rights reserved.David AlthoffGlobal Head of Diversified Industrial M&AChicago 1 312 697 Dr.Howard E.JohnsonManaging Director,Canadian M&A AdvisoryToronto 1 416 597 Andreas StoecklinHead of Corporate Finance,EMEAFrankfurt 49 697 191 Jeffrey McNamaraManaging Director,Diversified Industrials M&AChicago 1 312 697 Stephen BurtGlobal Head of M&A Advisory .Chicago 1 312 697 Dafydd EvansManaging Director,M&A AdvisoryLondon 44 207 089 Mark KwiloszHead of North American Automotive M&A AdvisoryChicago 1 312 697 Alexandre PierantoniManaging Director,M&A AdvisorySao Paolo 55 11 3192 David LuManaging Director,M&A AdvisoryShanghai 86 21 6032 20

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Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.Logistics OutlookJanuary 2024Transportation&Infrastructure2 Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.Build strategy and manage risk through the lens of geopolitics and macroeconomics.Understand the forces shaping the future of your organizationAssess their economic impactSeparate noise from signalFind better optionsA unique global networkWe are a division of Expeditors,one of the worlds foremost supply chain companies.Our core team of global,regional and industry experts is complemented by our extended network of logistics and supply chain practitioners on the ground in 350 locations in 100 countries globally.Quantifying impact is at the heart of our valueWe believe that geopolitics and macroeconomics can shape any business.But understanding them is only half the story:we combine qualitative analysis and proprietary data to quantify impact on your business and produce actionable insights.We focus on what mattersWe fully integrate macroeconomic and geopolitical analysis,unlike any other consulting firm.Our approach is tailored to the issues,geographies and industries you care about.We focus on getting to the so-what of politics so you dont have to.Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.3Summary of medium-term input cost pressuresInflation rates easing,but price levels set to remain historically highSource:OnyxMACRO&GEOPOLITICAL RISKSOCEAN FREIGHT MARKET DYNAMICSRAW MATERIAL MARKET DYNAMICSOIL/MARINE FUEL MARKET DYNAMICSA regional conflict in the Middle East that affects oil supply could send prices$100/barrelA swing in momentum in Ukraine raises the risk of Russia further weaponizing energy suppliesPotential for a prolonged Chinese slump that reduces energy demand and supply of processed inputsGeopolitical risk is dominating the market,pushing rates higher in Q1-Q2 with potential for sustained higher rates depending largely on events in the Middle EastOtherwise,market fundamentals are neutral to bearish as global merchandise trade will improve but will be outpaced by new container capacity“Rockets and feathers”:input costs remain high,unlikely to fall furtherMacro and geopolitical dynamics drive higher-for-longer costs,but unlikely return to extreme cost inflation of 2021-22Commodities tied to the energy transition and construction are most vulnerable to upward price pressure in 2024Crude oil prices face risk tug-of-war:downside macro and upside geopolitical risksFuel spreads have reverted as expected,and will normalize further as 1 mmbd new global refinery capacity will ease pressureSourcing decisions must remain cost-conscious Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.4Forecast0050060070080090080100120140Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Brent Crude(left)VLSFO(right)HSFO(right)Steady upward pressure on fuel costsTightening supplies will bring more upside price riskSource:Bloomberg,Energy Information Administration(EIA),OnyxOutlook through 2024Demand:Uncertainty clouds the market Global outlook is soft,with downside risks in Q1-Q2 and potential rebound in H2 2024 Continued air travel recovery back to pre-pandemic trend Trade recovery picks up in 2024Supply:Steady growth and excess capacity Resilient US production growth in 2023 OPEC maintains price floor Steady expansion in refining capacity for higher-grade marine fuelsFactors to watch policy and geopolitics Tightening balance in late 2024 increases vulnerability to shocks Geopolitical wildcards IMO and EU regulations on maritime emissions will necessitate a shift to renewable fuelsMarine fuel costs move with crude oil;high-grade premium has narrowedMarine bunker fuel prices(Rotterdam,USD/tonne)and Brent crude spot price(USD/barrel)Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.5Logistics infrastructure progress stalled in key marketsLogistics performance across the worldSource:World Bank,Onyx65265443827292925324545720092000232025United StatesChinaMalaysiaIndiaBrazilMexicoLogistics Performance Index(LPI):Rank out of 139 countries Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.6Growth in Indias port capacity has been sluggishSlow turnaround times and low containerization levelsSource:Onyx;Ministry of Ports,Shipping,and WaterwaysESTIMATES OF CONTAINERIZATION LEVELS(2022)002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,600200192020 4% 1PACITY AT MAJOR PORTSMILLION TONNESPort capacityTraffic handledAVERAGE TURNAROUND TIME IN 2021HOURS2835474754Jawaharlal NehruCochinNew MangaloreEnnoreChennai23.5Global median turnaround time254070IndiaDeveloping countriesDeveloped countriesLow containerization levels cause inefficiencies when transitioning between modes of transport and contribute to higher logistics costs Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.7How do you view the security situation in the country today vs.12 months ago?*Share of respondents,AmCham Mexico 2022 surveyMexico:Deteriorating security impacts transportMost companies think security will continue to worsen*Based on a 2022 survey of C-suite and security executives from foreign and domestic businesses operating in MexicoSource:AmCham Mexico Business Security Survey 2022,OnyxHow do you think the countrys security situation will be in the next 12 months?*Share of respondents,AmCham Mexico 2022 survey25G%7%No responseMuch better 1tter 1%SameWorseMuch worseWorse Much worse:72tter Much better:2Q%5%No responseMuch better 1tter 2%SameWorseMuch worseWorse Much worse:67tter Much better:3%Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.8Perception:10 states with the greatest challenges regarding business security*AmCham Mexico Business Security SurveyMexico City area and US-Mexico border states see worsening security perceptionsBaja California is no longer viewed among safest states*Based on a 2022 survey of C-suite and security executives from foreign and domestic businesses operating in MexicoSource:AmCham Mexico,OnyxPerception:10 states with the least challenges regarding business security*AmCham Mexico Business Security SurveyRank201820221TamaulipasEstado de Mxico2Estado de MxicoGuanajuato3Ciudad de MxicoCiudad de Mxico4MichoacnMichoacn5GuerreroJalisco6VeracruzTamaulipas7JaliscoNuevo Len8GuanajuatoPuebla9 SinaloaVeracruz10PueblaChihuahuaRank201820221YucatnHidalgo2QuertaroMorelos3AguascalientesNayarit4CampecheOaxaca5Quintana RooTabasco6Baja CaliforniaQuintana Roo7SonoraTlaxcala8San Luis PotosYucatn9 ChiapasBaja California Sur10TlaxcalaCampeche Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.9Which are among the greatest concerns in terms of company security?*Share of respondentsCargo transport is among the greatest concernsWith minimal help from authorities,most companies apply security enhancements from within*Based on a 2022 survey of C-suite and security executives from foreign and domestic businesses operating in MexicoSource:AmCham Mexico,Onyx356Hcd%Information securityTravel protocolsPhysical security offacilitiesSecurity of personneland familiesCargo transportWhich of the following have had an impact on improving company security?*Share of respondents84%Security enhancements within our company9forts by federal authorities5forts by state authoritiesWhat type of company measures have helped improve security conditions?*Share of respondents95cXXXBB722&!%Risk analysisSatellite tracking oftransport/goodsPhysical securityCrisis management plansTraining and securityawarenessTravel protocolsCybersecurityimprovementsCollaboration with otherbusinessesCollaboration withauthoritiesSatellite tracking ofexecutivesExecutive protectionCancellation of operations Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.10Vietnams logistics performance middling in ASEANBut Hanoi is investing heavily in its infrastructure to grow capacity3.63.33.30.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0MalaysiaVietnamPhilippines4.12.1WORLD BANK LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE INDEX 20231=LOW,5=HIGHTop 10 global average LPI scoreBottom 10 global average LPI scoreSource:World Bank,Oxford Economics,Onyx0561718 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 7%INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORT AND STORAGEUSD$B 2015 PRICESForecastMaster Transport Infrastructure Plan(2021 2030)aims to expand port network,scale up national highway system and upgrade existing airports Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.11Customs procedures still a hurdle for businessesBusinesses cite red tape and corruption as issues2020 SURVEY ON BUSINESSES SATISFACTION WITH IMPORT-EXPORT ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURES%OF RESPONDENTSSource:Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry,General Department of Vietnam Customs,Ministry of Finance,USAID,Nikkei Asia9995557447303100%Physical inspection of goodsDocument inspectionTax refundComplaint settlementCustoms declarationTax payment221Level of ease in carrying out customs proceduresIn a separate survey released in 2023 by Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry:59%of firms face issues with“specialized inspections”,such as checks on product quality30clined to answer a question on“unofficial fees”Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.12 Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.Get in touchWebsite CLinkedInhttps:/ Onyx Strategic Insights.Reproduction by written authorization only.13Onyx Strategic Insights(Onyx,Onyx SI,We,Our,or Us)is a division of Expeditors International of Washington,Inc.(Expeditors).The information in this website,article,event invitation or other written form,or shared during or provided in materials as part of an event or other forum(“Content”)is for informational purposes only.The views,opinions,analyses,estimates,predictions and/or strategies(“Views”)expressed in the 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8人已浏览 2024-05-15 13页 5星级

Europe E-CommerceLogistics Market Report 2024How has e-commerce evolved in the UnitedKingdom,Germany,France and Italy?Content01About the Report02E-Commerce Landscape in Europe03Delivery Performance by Country04Cross Border E-Commerce in Europe05Closing Remarks06About Parcel MonitorCONTACT US02The European e-commerce landscape continues to flourish,with projectionsindicating a promising ascent to nearly 900 billion U.S.dollars in revenue by2028.As the market expands,understanding the intricacies of the e-commercelogistics sector becomes increasingly vital for stakeholders and decision-makers.With this in mind,let us delve deeper into the state of e-commerce anddelivery performance of 4 European countries France,Germany,Italy,andthe United Kingdom in this report.Data Methodology Our benchmarking and carrier performance measurement involves thecollection of billions of anonymized data points from more than 170 countriesannually.We harness data from millions of parcels spanning 1,045 carriersglobally-tracked by real consumers across all industries.Based on these granular real-time data insights,we are able to drill down intospecific trade lane performance,comparing domestic but also internationalshipment profiles across all carriers.All benchmarking data sets have beencompiled with strict minimum requirements for data point quantity,quantityand comparability.Want to learn more about our data?03GET IN TOUCH TODAY What to Expect01About the ReportEuropes e-commerce market has undergone remarkable expansion in the last decade,particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic.According to CBREs E-Commerce in the Post-Pandemic Era report(2023),the United Kingdom(UK),Germany,France,and Italy accountfor about 62%of total European e-commerce spend.Among these,the UK and Germanylead with the largest market shares,together accounting for close to half of total spend.E-Commerce Penetration Growth Plateaus Following Pandemic SurgeFollowing the end of lockdown restrictions and the re-opening of physical retail stores,e-commerce penetration rates have held steady or even declined in most European markets.This trend suggests that consumers value the in-person shopping experience and wereeager to return to physical stores once restrictions were lifted.The flatlining of e-commerce penetration growth might also indicate that these keymarkets are nearing their saturation point for e-commerce penetration rates,thoughfurther data and analysis are required to confirm this hypothesis.Nevertheless,it is evidentthat the pandemic-induced surge in e-commerce has not sustained its momentum,thusunderlining the importance of physical retail in the consumer experience.B2C E-Commerce Users On an Upward Trajectory in EuropeEurope has witnessed a consistent increase in the number of business-to-consumer(B2C)e-commerce users,with figures growing from 390 million in 2017 to 540 million by the endof last year.Projections indicate that this upward trend will continue,with expectations of552 million users in 2024 and 586 million by 2027.As the B2C user base expands,businesses must tailor their strategies to cater to a largerand more diverse set of consumers.Understanding the needs and preferences of these newusers will be crucial in staying competitive in the evolving digital marketplace.Companiesthat can effectively adapt to the changing landscape will be well-positioned to capture alarger share of the growing European e-commerce market.Looking for more insights into changing sentiment and behavior trends in Europe?Check out our recent article here.0402E-Commerce Landscape in EuropeDespite experiencing a decline in the number of shoppers following Brexit,the cross-bordere-commerce market in Western Europe is witnessing a significant surge in activity.Thistrend highlights a shift in consumer behavior,with individuals becoming more comfortablepurchasing from foreign retailers despite potential logistical or regulatory challenges.Factors such as globalization,improved shipping infrastructure,and the proliferation ofonline marketplaces have facilitated this surge in cross-border e-commerce,enablingconsumers to access a broader range of products and brands from around the world.Against this backdrop,here are the busiest cross-border shipping routes in Europe,basedon our representative data across millions of real e-commerce shipments in 2023:0503Cross Border E-Commerce in EuropeDenmark to GermanyIn the realm of cross-border e-commerce,Denmark to Germany(DK-DE)has risen toprominence as the third-busiest and most vital shipping route in Europe.The OEC statisticsunderscore its significance,with Germany exporting 1.62 billion worth of goods to Denmarkand importing 1.22 billion in return,resulting in a robust positive trade balance of 399million in July 2023 alone.What sets this route apart is not only its bustling activity but also its commitment to timelydeliveries.The top carriers on the DK-DE route such as PostNord Denmark,DHL Paket andUPS have collectively achieved an average parcel transit time of 2.07 days in Q4 2023,allowing businesses and end-consumers on both ends of the route to rely on a reasonablyquick and dependable flow of goods.Moreover,the average first-attempt deliverysuccess rate among these carriers stands at an impressive 88.6%,further attesting to theproficiency and dedication of the carriers between these European markets.0603Cross Border E-Commerce in EuropeCzech Republic to GermanyCzech Republic to Germany(CZ-DE)is one of the busiest cross-border shipping routes inEurope,serving as a vital conduit for the efficient exchange of goods and services acrossthe border.Considering the close economic relationship and the robust trade history thatthe two countries have,its no surprise that this route is among the busiest in the region.Asa matter of fact,Germany accounted for more than 29%of Czechs foreign trade turnover,with the exports accounting for a whopping US$79.2 billion in 2022 alone.Based on our real parcel insights,the CZ-DE route appears to be primarily dominated by ahandful of logistics carriers,including DPD Germany,and DHL Paket,and Hermes,and interms of delivery performance,these carriers boast an average parcel transit time of 1.57days and an average first-attempt delivery success rate of 91.9%in Q4 2023.Request for a personalised analysis on specific carriers and tradelanes.Germany to AustriaIn both Germ any and Austria,the e-commerce sector has seen steady expansion over thepast few years,with more consumers turning to online platforms for their shopping needs.While the Germany to Austria(DE-AT)route might not boast the quickest transit times orthe highest delivery success rates compared to some other cross-border routes,it remainsan essential artery for trade and e-commerce in the heart of Europe.Key logistics carriers on the DE-AT route DHL Paket,sterreichische Post(Express),GLSGermany,and UPS collectively contribute to the reliability and efficiency of cross-bordertrade.On average,parcels take about 2.26 days to transit the route,and the average first-attempt delivery success rate stands at 84.8%in Q4 2023,which still signifies acommitment to the reliable movement of goods,despite being on the lower end of thespectrum.Not sure how to fully utilize these carrier performance metrics?Heres how you can leverage them to optimize logistics operations.0703Cross Border E-Commerce in Europe Germany to BelgiumConsumers in Belgium exhibit a remarkable tendency to make a substantial quantity oftheir online purchases cross-border,surpassing the buying patterns observed in manyother EU countries.In fact,55%of e-commerce in Belgium is cross-border,with 22%of itsonline purchases originating from Germany.This phenomenon can be attributed to therelatively underdeveloped state of Belgian e-commerce platforms compared to theircounterparts in neighboring countries like the Netherlands and France.According to our in-house data,DPD Worldwide has distinguished itself as a prominentcarrier on this route,along with Be lgium Post(bPost),DHL Paket,and GLS Germany.Collectively,these five carriers handle a huge bulk of the cross-border shipments in the DE-BE route,ensuring that goods move swiftly and reliably between the two countries.Theroute boasts an average transit time of 2.25 days and an average first-attempt deliverysuccess rate of 89.7%in Q4 2023,which is indicative of the overall dedication of thesecarriers to meet the needs of businesses and consumers in both countries.Germany and the Netherlands are not only neighbors but also close bilateral,EU,andmultilateral partners.This partnership extends to economic collaboration,where exportsand innovation play a pivotal role in both nations economies.The Netherlands,in particular,boasts strong sectors in services,including the financial sector,trade,agriculture,andindustry.The Netherlands-Germany(NL-DE)shipping route embodies the robust and intricate bondbetween the Netherlands and Germany,facilitating seamless cross-border trade.Amongthe prominent carriers servicing this route is Po st NL,boasting an average parcel transittime of 2.26 days.While Post NL holds a significant presence in the Netherlands,other keycarriers such as DHL Paket,GLS,and DPD also play pivotal roles,collectively achieving anaverage transit time of 1.58 days.Netherlands to GermanyGain In-Depth Analysis of Carrier PerformancePosition Yourself as a Leading Player in Your Market Unlock Exclusive Access to Market Data Companies can utilize our carrier performance data(e.g.parcel transittimes)to select the most suitable logistics partners capable of handlingthe increased e-commerce order volume in the coming months.Businesses can leverage our company listings to boost their brandpresence,showcase their services,and forge strategic collaborationsacross the industry.Achieve operationalexcellence with ourcarrier and market dataBy being our esteemed partner,retailers and logistics carriers can gain access to exclusive insights on global trade lanes and a range of market-specific data.080.001.002.003.004.00DPD FranceColissimoLa PosteMondial RelayDB SchenkerIn France,the e-commerce sector encountered a blend of advancements and hurdles in itslogistics performance over the past year.Despite a minor setback of 4.4%in domesticparcel transit time,there was a 4.2%increase in the first-attempt delivery success rate,soaring to an impressive 86%.However,the overall issue ratio for domestic parcelswitnessed a slight uptick of 5.5%.Key players in Frances domestic shipping landscape encompass Colissimo,La Poste,DPDFrance,and Mondial Relay,each exhibiting varying performance standards in deliveryspeed,reliability,and customer service.As with any market,the performance of thesecarriers plays a pivotal role in the e-commerce sectors success,as prompt anddependable delivery services are fundamental to meeting the escalating demands ofonline consumers in Malaysia.Curious to find out more about the French market?Unlock more data here.2.5894ys for domestictransit timeon time ratiofirst attemptsuccess rateissue ratioFrances Logistics Performance in NumbersDomestic Transit Times for the Top Carriers within France0904Delivery Performance in France4.2%vs 20221.721.932.003.954.4%vs 20225.5%vs 20221.630.000.501.001.502.002.503.00NetherlandsBelgiumItalyGermanySpainFrance has emerged as a significant player in Europes cross-border e-commercelandscape,with well-established trade lanes connecting it to key markets across thecontinent.One of the most prominent routes is the France-Netherlands(FR-NL)corridor,which boasts an impressive average parcel transit time of just 1.68 days.This efficientconnection facilitates swift and seamless trade between the two countries,contributing tothe overall growth of e-commerce in the region.In addition to the Netherlands,France maintains strong trade lanes with other majorEuropean markets,including:France to Belgium(FR-BE):With an average transit time of 1.97 days,this routeshowcases the close geographical proximity between France and Belgium,bolsteringcross-border e-commerce activities.France to Italy(FR-IT):Featuring an average transit time of 2.53 days,this routeconnects France to Italys burgeoning e-commerce market,offering ampleopportunities for businesses to expand their reach.France to Germany(FR-DE):The average transit time for this route is 2.62 days,enabling French e-commerce companies to tap into Germanys robust consumermarket,which is poised to reach USD 319.6 Billion by 2032,says Spherical Insights.France to Spain(FR-ES):With an average transit time of 2.9 days,this route solidifiesFrances position as a vital e-commerce hub,linking it to the rapidly-growing Spanishmarket,with electronics and fashion being the two largest sectors in terms of turnover.Transit Times for Key International Trade Routes Originating from France10041.681.972.532.622.9Delivery Performance in France0.000.501.001.502.00DHL PaketGLS GermanyDPD WorldwideUPSGermanys e-commerce landscape is characterized by a high level of efficiency,with anaverage parcel transit time of 1.36 days,reflecting a 1.9%improvement from 2022.Thecountry also boasts a 95livery on-time ratio and an 89%first-attempt deliverysuccess rate,which has seen a 1%year-over-year increase.However,the percentage ofparcels with delivery issues(issue ratio)has increased by 27%YoY,now standing at 10%.The recent decline in e-commerce purchasing can be primarily attributed to consumerinsecurity about their personal economic outlook.Rising energy costs and inflation,particularly in the fast-moving consumer goods(FMCG)sector,have led to increasedfrugality among German consumers.On a positive note,there has been continuous growthin the adoption of online buy now,pay later(BNPL)services like PayPal and Klarna.Notable carriers dominating Germany domestic shipping landscape include CJ GLS andDHL Paket,each offering varying levels of service in speed,reliability,and customer support.1.3695ys for domestictransit timeon time ratiofirst attemptsuccess rateissue ratioGermanys Logistics Performance in NumbersDomestic Transit Times for the Top Carriers within Germany1104Delivery Performance in Germany1%vs 202227%vs 20221.371.441.441.651.9%vs 2022When it comes to international shipping routes originating from Germany,the shortesttransit time was observed in Germany-Netherlands(DE-NL)route,with an average of 1.82days.On the other hand,the longest transit time was surprisingly from Germany to France(DE-FR),averaging 2.7 days.The transit times for other routes,such as Germany to Belgiumand Austria,fall within the range of 2.17 to 2.62 days,reflecting the relatively smoothlogistics performance for these routes.By understanding the transit times for key international trade routes originating fromGermany,businesses in Germany can optimize their logistics strategies,improve theiroperational efficiency,and ultimately provide a seamless cross-border shoppingexperience for their customers around the world.Additionally,this data can informpolicymaking and infrastructure development to support the growth of international tradeand strengthen Germanys position as a regional logistics hub.Find out which carriers are the best options for these shipping routes.0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00NetherlandsBelgiumAustriaPolandFrance1204Delivery Performance in Germany1.822.172.252.622.7Transit Times for Key International Trade Routes Originating from Germany0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50GLS ItalyBRT BartoliniItaly SDAPoste ItalianeDHL ParcelItalys e-commerce landscape is distinguished by unique trends,namely a strongpreference for local brands and a heightened focus on sustainability.Companies likeAmazon and GLS Italy are spearheading sustainable initiatives,such as employing electricvehicles for last-mile delivery and utilizing bike couriers for urban deliveries.In terms of delivery performance,Italys domestic parcel transit times averaged animpressive 1.63 days in 2023,marking a 35.2%improvement from the previous year.Thefirst-attempt delivery success rate also rose by 8.4%from 2022,reaching a remarkable91%.Similarly,the issue ratio improved by 17.3%,decreasing to 6.9%in 2023.Top carriers fordomestic shipping in Italy,such as GLS Italy,BRT Bartolini,Italy SDA,and DHL Parcel,play acritical role in the countrys e-commerce logistics performance,varying based on factorssuch as delivery speed,reliability,and customer service.Curious to find out more about the Italian e-commerce market?Unlock more data here.1.6397%6.9ys for domestictransit timeon time ratiofirst attemptsuccess rateissue ratioItalys Logistics Performance in NumbersDomestic Transit Times for the Top Carriers within Italy1304Delivery Performance in Italy8.4%vs 20221.531.571.651.833.0335.2%vs 202217.3%vs 20220.001.002.003.004.005.00FranceBelgiumGermanyUnited KingdomUnited StatesCross-border business-to-consumer(B2C)e-commerce has gained significant traction inItalys online retail sector.In 2019,e-commerce websites from foreign countries accountedfor just 28.7%of the entire e-commerce revenue.By 2022,the market share of cross-bordere-commerce had increased to 39.2%,indicating a growing preference for internationalonline shopping among Italian consumers.Among the key international trade routes,the Italy-United States(IT-US)route had thelongest average parcel transit time of 4.4 days in 2023.This relatively longer transit timecan be attributed to the vast geographical distance between Italy and the United States,aswell as potential challenges in customs clearance,shipping routes,and delivery processes.In contrast,other international trade routes exhibited shorter transit times,namely:Italy to France(IT-FR)route:2.19 daysItaly to Belgium(IT-BE)route:2.38 daysItaly to Germany(IT-DE)route:2.76 daysItaly to United Kingdom(IT-GB)route:3.59 daysThese shorter transit times can be attributed to the well-established trade relationships,more efficient customs procedures,and shorter geographical distances between Italyand the respective European countries.As cross-border e-commerce continues to grow inItaly,optimizing transit times will be crucial to meeting consumer expectations andmaintaining competitiveness in the global e-commerce landscape.Transit Times for Key International Trade Routes Originating from Italy14042.192.382.763.594.4Delivery Performance in Italy0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00DPDYodel InternationalParcel ForceRoyal MailEvriIn 2023,the United Kingdoms e-commerce market witnessed substantial year-over-yearimprovements in several key delivery performance metrics.The transit time for domesticparcels improved by 11.7%compared to 2022,averaging just 1.28 days.The first-attemptdelivery success rate also saw a commendable increase of 18.4%to 94%,while the on-time delivery ratio reached an impressive 98%,surpassing the performance of the othercountries mentioned in this report.Last but not least,the overall issue ratio for domesticparcels decreased by 23%to 6.5%in 2023,indicating a significant enhancement in theefficiency and reliability of e-commerce logistics in the UK.Prominent carriers,such as DPD,Yodel International,Parcel Force,Royal Mail,and Evri,areinstrumental in upholding these high standards.However,it is critical to recognize thatthere is always room for improvement,as carrier-related challenges contributed to about21.9%of the total issues encountered within the e-commerce logistics sector in the UK.Curious to find out more about the UK market?Unlock more data here.1.2898%6.5ys for domestictransit timeon time ratiofirst attemptsuccess rateissue ratioUnited Kingdoms Logistics Performance in NumbersDomestic Transit Times for the Top Carriers within UK1504Delivery Performance in United Kingdom11.7%vs 202218.4%vs 202223%vs 20221.141.171.231.262.60.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00IrelandGermanyUnited StatesCanadaAustraliaTransit Times for Key International Trade Routes Originating from UK16043.083.624.835.046.07Boasting a strategic location and a thriving economy,the UK is ideally positioned to serveas a hub for cross-border trade,linking businesses and consumers with global markets.Several key cross-border trade routes originate from the UK,and the efficiency of theseroutes is critical to the growth of e-commerce.Among these routes,the GB-IE(UK toIreland)route stands out with the shortest average transit time of just 3.08 days.However,its important to note that transit times have been severely impacted since COVID-19.Despite its advantageous location,the numbers have seen a decline over the years,reflecting the challenges posed by the pandemic on global logistics.Other significant trade routes originating from the UK include:UK to Germany(GB-DE)route:3.62 daysUK to United States(GB-US)route:4.83 daysUK to Canada(GB-CA):5.04 daysUK to Australia(GB-AU):6.07 daysDelivery Performance in United KingdomIn conclusion,our report has provided a comprehensive overview of e-commercelandscape in Europe,including a recap of delivery issues in 2023,and the breakdown ofdelivery performance metrics in 4 key European markets.As we navigate the ever-evolvingdigital age,where consumer expectations continue to shift and innovations continuallyemerge,we trust that the insights shared in this report will empower retailers,e-commercebusinesses,logistics companies,and industry professionals with the knowledge needed tomake informed decisions and steer the course of e-commerce logistics in Europe.The Parcel Monitor Team05Closing RemarksFIND OUT MORE ABOUT OUR DATALooking for more data insights?Peak season performance benchmarksOn-time delivery performanceDelivery success rates.and more!Discover growth opportunities&make data driven decisions with:17Companies leverage our market data andbenchmarking reports to derive actionable insightsinto 170 countries while forming meaningfulcollaborations across the industry.Initiated by e-commerce logistics enthusiasts atParcel Perform,and powered by end-consumers,Parcel Monitor is your gateway to real e-commercelogistics data worldwide.Millions of consumers rely on our free parceltracking to monitor the status of their parcelsacross 1045 logistics carriers globally on asingle platform.Trusted Source of E-Commerce Logistics DataFor Consumers Around the WorldFor Businesses of All SizesParcel Monitor is the trusted source of e-commerce logistics insights-powered byreal consumer data.Leveraging proprietary data and latest technologies,weempower businesses with actionable insights,while facilitating collaborationsacross the entire e-commerce logistics ecosystem.With a global network spanning 1045 carriers,170 countries and 60,000 shipping routes,we track millions of parcels on a daily basis,providing anaccurate reflection of the global markets.18About Parcel Monitor

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Workshop Report CAREC Road Safety and Sustainable Mobility Course Phase 1&2 March 2024 1 Disclaimer This report is the outcome of the CAREC Road Safety and Sustainable Mobility Course and drafted by Blaise Murphet,Road Safety Specialist Consultant,contributed by Dildar Zakir,Capacity Building Specialist,CAREC Institute and Honey May L.Manzano-Guerzon,Knowledge Management Officer,CWRC,ADB.The views expressed in this paper are the views of authors,contributors and participants of the workshop and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the CAREC Institute,its funding entities,or its Governing Council.The CAREC Institute does not guarantee accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of its use.The terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with the CAREC Institutes official terms.The CAREC Institute accepts no liability or responsibility for any partys use of this paper or for the consequences of any partys reliance on the information or data provided herein.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area,or by using country names in the report,the author did not intend to make any judgment as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.Boundaries,colors,denominations,or any other information shown on maps do not imply any judgment on the legal status of any territory,or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries,colors,denominations,or information.This report is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.By using the content of this report,you agree to be bound by the terms of this license.This CC license does not apply to other copyright materials in this report.If the material is attributed to another source,please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.The CAREC Institute cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation(CAREC)Institute 21st Floor,Commercial Building Block 8,Vanke Metropolitan,No.66 Longteng Road,Shuimogou District,Urumqi,Xinjiang,the PRC,830028 f: 86- L inkedIn:carec-institute km carecinstitute.o rg ww w.carecinstitute.o rg 2 Acknowledgment The crucial role of representatives from across the various Ministries and Departments and kindred bodies from within Kyrgyz Republic is duly acknowledged and appreciated.The representatives who participated in the workshop are duly acknowledged for sharing their knowledge and expertise with all present.The interpretation and translation support from Tatiana Mashenskaya and Sergei Gavrilin made the interaction possible between the participants and the resource persons.Special thanks to Lyaziza Sabyrova,Director,Regional Cooperation and Operations Coordination Division(CWRC),ADB,Roman Mogilevskii,Senior Economist,CWRC,ADB,David Shelton,Senior Transport Specialist(Road Safety),Leader APRSO Secretariat,ADB,Ritu Mishra,Transport Specialist,Transport Sector Office,Sector Group,ADB,Rovshan Mahmudov,Acting Chief of Capacity Building Division,CAREC Institute,Gulshat Raissova,CAREC Institute Coordinator,CWRC,ADB,and Aidana Berdybekova,Regional Cooperation Coordinator,Kyrgyz Republic Resident Mission,ADB and Gary Huang,eLearning Specialist,CAREC Institute.Overall,this course would have not been possible without the financial and technical support from Asian Development Bank,European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,Eastern Alliance for Safe and Sustainable Transport,Global Road Safety Partnership and International Road Assessment Programme.3 Contents I.Summary.5 Program Purpose and Approach.5 Course components.7 Online Capacity Building Modules.7 In-person Course.7 Online Community of Practice(ongoing).7 II.Content and Participant Summary.7 Online Capacity Building Modules.7 In-person Course.9 Online Platform.10 III.Program Assessment.11 IV.Recommendations.13 V.Annexes.14 Annex A Course Agenda.14 Annex B Course Content.19 Annex C Snapshots.19 Annex D List of Participants.20 Annex E Course Evaluation Summary.23 4 Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank APRSO Asia Pacific Road Safety Observatory CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CI CAREC Institute CWRC Regional Cooperation and Operations Coordination Division EASST Eastern Alliance for Safe and Sustainable Transport EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development GRSP Global Road Safety Partnership iRAP International Road Assessment Programme MoTC Minister of Transport and Communications WHO World Health Organization 5 I.Summary Road crash deaths and serious injures is an ongoing challenge for countries in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program(CAREC)region.While progress is being made by some countries there is a notable need for increased capacity to implement best practice interventions based on sound local evidence.This is reflected in the CAREC Regional Road Safety Strategy 2017 2030,which states:The local and national efforts being taken in each country can be enhanced by adopting regionwide approaches supported by joint capacity building and knowledge sharing activities1.In recognition of this,the first CAREC Road Safety and Sustainable Mobility Course was launched in November 2023 through a multi-phase initiative directly targeted at governmental stakeholders from the region.The phases included the development of a dedicated online training platform,an in-person workshop held in February 2024,and the establishment of an online community of practice,which is ongoing.For this first iteration of the course,participants were drawn from five CAREC countries2 and across multiple government sectors.Content for the course was provided by a team of international road safety experts and presented in a form accessible to the audience including full translation into Russian.Participant engagement through the first online phase,and the second phase of a week-long residential program was extremely positive and showed a strong intention for the application of knowledge gained in policy and implementation of evidence-based approaches.New multi-nation and multi-sector networks were also established.Course evaluation also strongly indicated an appetite for further capacity development using the approach of the course,and for the opportunity for other stakeholders to benefit.There was also strong interest in ongoing training and mentorship of course alumni.The inaugural course effectively demonstrated that residential best practice training programs with multi-country participation can catalyse the knowledge sharing and supporting networks needed for the CAREC region to step up its implementation of effective responses to road safety,and realize the objectives outlined in the CAREC Regional Road Safety Strategy and the Global Plan for the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2021-2030.Program Purpose and Approach The CAREC Road Safety and Sustainable Mobility Course is a multi-phased capacity building initiative of which Phases 1 and 2 were conducted from November 2023 March 2024,with the aim of facilitating the sustainable transfer of accumulated practical knowledge in road safety and mobility to Government and non-governmental stakeholders within the CAREC region.A secondary key aim is to increase understanding of the investment needed in road safety and sustainable mobility interventions to assist developing member countries(DMCs)to develop projects and loans to drive action within the region.These aims are also aligned with the intention to support the continued implementation of the CAREC Road Safety Strategy 2030.1 Staying Connected:A Regional Road Safety Strategy for CAREC Countries 2017 2030:https:/www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/228011/carec-road-safety-2017-2013.pdf 2 Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan 6 The course was developed and implemented as a partnership led by the CAREC Institute with support from the Asian Development Bank(ADB),the Asia Pacific Road Safety Observatory(APRSO)and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development(EBRD).The course objectives are to:a)Facilitate sustainable transfer of best-practice road safety knowledge and practices to CAREC national technical institutions and to form communities of practice among leading CAREC professionals while also promote gender inclusivity in road safety planning,policy development and decision-making processes ensuring participation of women and addressing gender specific challenges;b)Enhance the capacity of CAREC countries in the field of road safety engineering to effectively achieve strategic goals of keeping CAREC transport corridors safe,and the region safely connected;c)Promote evidence-based policy and decision making in the road safety professions in the CAREC region and to continue knowledge support to member countries while integrating digital technologies and data-driven approaches into road safety practices;d)Prototype an annual,immersive road safety professionals training program for the CAREC region in alignment with the CAREC road safety program;and e)Establish the knowledge and skills for development of investment-ready,large scale road safety programs for consideration by governments and sponsors such as ADB.Key proposed outcomes of the program are that:a)CAREC road safety professionals have a development pathway(based on data/evidence)providing the skills,knowledge and insights aligned with the influence their roles have over the safety of the road system;b)A regional forum is available for advancing technical road safety knowledge in the CAREC region,leveraging action through the CAREC road safety program,and to contribute to regional developments through the APRSO;c)The pool of technical professionals(including female and male)in CAREC countries is expanded to ensure the application of Safe System thinking throughout the road system lifecycle and its use and to develop road safety projects that can be supported through ADB financing;d)The long-term vision for what makes a safe road system in the CAREC region is understood and consistently pursued by road system managers,designers,constructors and operators;and CAREC countries ability to optimize and manage external funding are increased for effective road safety interventions.To achieve this,the course included three aligned components,all of which are striving to support engagement and collaboration between participants to identify practical steps toward the adoption of evidence-based interventions.The components were designed to be integrated to immerse participants in a range of activities to ensure a sustained period of engagement,and to avoid a one-off course,which may risk insufficiently engaging stakeholders to take action.7 Course components Online Capacity Building Modules A dedicated online platform was created and launched in November 2023 to provide participants with a series of tailored online modules that were intended to provide critical contextual technical information and resources before commencement of the in-person course.These modules focused on road safety management;safer roads and roadside infrastructure and safer road users.The platform was provided with Russian language translation embedded.In-person Course A one-week,residential training program delivered from Monday 26 February Friday 1 March,2024 in Bishkek,Kyrgyz Republic.The course was targeted to representatives from Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,and included comprehensive sessions delivered by a team of global experts.Online Community of Practice(ongoing)This component includes two key aspects aimed at encouraging continued engagement among the cohort and building a focal point for evidence-based information.These aspects include the continued updating of information within the online capacity building modules,including the provision of all course materials in Russian language so that participants could conduct their own trainings to counterparts,and the establishment of an online communication group between all participants to encourage continued engagement.II.Content and Participant Summary The content of the CAREC Road Safety and Sustainable Mobility Course focuses on globally recognised,best practice frameworks and topics.The World Health Organization(WHO)Global Plan for the Second Decade of Action for Road Safety 2021 2030(the Global Plan)provided a central guiding framework for the prioritisation of content.In addition,a range of other frameworks were used as reference,including the CAREC Road Safety Strategy 2030 and the WHO Voluntary Global Road Safety Performance Targets.A range of other road safety programs were analysed to identify successful approaches to content collation and dissemination.3 As a result,content of the course focuses on translating the key concepts of the Safe System Approach to road safety to practical application of these concepts in CAREC countries.Content across the core components of the program includes:Online Capacity Building Modules Content within the online capacity building modules included a range of existing training materials,webinars and knowledge products that were collated and specifically tailored to the course 3 MUARC:Road Safety Management Leadership Program,Delft:Annual Delft Road Safety Course,Johns Hopkins:Global Road Safety Leadership Course,Gustav Eiffel:University Diploma Road Safety in Africa.8 participants and provided in English and Russian where available.Content was delivered through three modules:Module 1 Road Safety Management This module included the following sub-topics:Introduction to Road Safety and the Safe System Approach The Role of the Lead Agency Data Systems to Inform Road Safety Management Road Safety Management Case Study from Mongolia Materials included online webinars,presentation materials and reports.Module 2 Safer Road Users This module included the following sub-topics:Understanding Road Traffic for Road Users Designing and Implementing Effective Enforcement Programs Strategic Communications for Road Safety Vulnerable Road Users Case Study from Vietnam Materials included online webinars,presentation materials and reports.Module 3 Safer Road Infrastructure This module included the following sub-topics:Introduction to Road Safety Engineering Speed Management Designing for all Road Users Road Safety Audits Roadside Hazard Management Pedestrian Safety Safer Road Works Introduction to iRAP Planning and Procuring an iRAP Project Establishing and Developing an iRAP Project in your Country or Region Star Rating for Schools Online Course Materials included online webinars,presentation materials,reports and access to third-party training platforms.Each module included a dedicated introduction from David Shelton,Senior Transport Specialist(Road Safety)from the ADB Transport Sector Office.Content for these modules was sourced and provided by the following organisations:ADB APRSO CAREC Institute 9 EBRD International Road Assessment Programme(iRAP)Global Road Safety Partnership(GRSP)In-person Course The in-person course was held in Bishkek,Kyrgyz Republic from February 26 March 1,2024.Content within the in-person course was developed through the identification of key topics and related objectives,which were matched the participant profile and regional context.Key topics and objectives included:-Introducing the Safe System Approach and the Global Plan o Setting the scene:Outlining the relevance of the Safe System Approach o Build knowledge of the global plan and CAREC road safety plans-Safer Roads and Roadside Infrastructure o Build understanding of best practice approaches to safer roads and roadside infrastructure o Outline the role of effective community engagement in support of infrastructure improvements-Safer Road Users o Build understanding of evidence-based interventions to protect road users o Identify practical steps to partner collaboration to support implementation of interventions-Data Systems o Explore opportunities to improve data systems to inform road safety implementation-Safer Vehicles o Build knowledge of the role of vehicle safety technologies and the regulatory environment required to implement-Implementation o Discuss the practical applicability of key concepts moving forward o Experience practical implementation of road safety interventions in Bishkek The course agenda is included as Annex A to this report.Course delivery was diverse and included a combination of technical presentations,facilitated discussions and group activities.The course also included a site visit to view road safety interventions within Bishkek.This was developed and coordinated in partnership with the General Directorate of Road Safety of the Kyrgyz Republic.Welcome remarks were also delivered by:Mr.Yrysbek Bariev,Deputy Minister of Transport and Communications of the Kyrgyz Republic Mr.Tynychbek Saidov,Head of Road Inspection Department/Lieutenant Colonel,General Directorate for Road Traffic Safety,Ministry of the Interior Mr.Zheng Wu,Country Director,Kyrgyz Republic Resident Mission,ADB Mr.Bakhtiyor Faiziev,Associate Director,Senior Banker,EBRD 10 This showed support of key agencies and institutions for the course and how it was supporting greater action on road safety and sustainable mobility through the region.Key experts were identified and engaged to support the development and delivery of this content and were drawn from globally recognized organizations with an emphasis on regional experience and knowledge.The expert team included:Mr.David Shelton,Senior Transport Specialist(Road Safety),Leader APRSO Secretariat,ADB Ms.Ritu Mishra,Transport Specialist,Transport Sector Office,Sector Group,ADB Ms.Emma MacLennan,Director General,Eastern Alliance for Safe and Sustainable Transport(EASST)Mr.Phillip Jordan,Principal Consultant,Road Safety International Mr.David Cliff,CEO,Global Road Safety Partnership(GRSP)Mr.Blaise Murphet,Senior Consultant,ADB Ms.Chinara Kasmambetova,Director,Public Association Road Safety Kyrgyzstan Mr.Egidijus Skrodenis,Partner for Road Safety and Innovations,MC Mobility Consultants GmbH Ms.Jessica Truong,Towards Zero Foundation(participate online)Mr.Taalaibek Matkerimov,Director of the Institute of Transport,Kyrgyz State Technical University named after I.Razzakov Mr.Julio Urzua,Global Projects Director,iRAP Mr.Luke Rogers,Global Operations Manager,iRAP These experts worked collaboratively to ensure that content was integrated so that the emphasis on the requirements for system approaches was clear.Course content was delivered through a combination of Russian and English with slides presented in both languages and simultaneous translation available throughout the course.All course presentations are included as Annex B of this report.Course photos and recordings of presentations are included as Annex C of this report.Online Platform Content of the third phase includes the collection of all course content and relevant supporting resources.There are also plans for conducting targeted webinars on key topics.In addition,this phase included establishment of an online professional networking group for participants using WhatsApp.Participants Significant planning and consideration were given to the identification and inclusion of participants for the three components of the course.The program primarily targeted road safety leaders and engineering professionals from the five countries.Specific guidance was provided through ADB Resident Missions to Government counterpart to ensure that there was an opportunity to include a diverse range of participants from national highway authorities,provincial road agencies,national traffic police,other relevant government authorities,technical universities and road and traffic consulting engineers.The importance of forming multi-disciplinary groups was strongly outlined and encouraged.11 It was noted that working through the official ADB nomination selection process takes considerable time and did not allow for the provision of final participant details to organizers sufficiently in advance of the program.The country allocation for the course was as follow:Kazakhstan 5 representatives Kyrgyz Republic 15 representatives(recognizing hosting the course)Tajikistan 5 representatives(1 nominee was unavailable at late notice)Turkmenistan 5 representatives(1 nominee was unavailable at late notice)Uzbekistan 5 representatives These participants were invited to engage through all components of the course,including the in-person course in Bishkek.Pleasingly the engagement and participation from each country was outstanding,with strong utilization of the online platform,and full representation at the in-person course.The cross-disciplinary allocation was also successful,with multiple agencies,ministries and organizations in attendance.In total,the course realized the following levels of engagement:Online platform:more than 3,400 separate interactions with content from across the cohort.In-person course:37 participants drawn from the five target countries including representatives from multiple agencies in each country.Online community of practice:ongoing engagement with online platform and establishment of WhatsApp group for further collaboration.There was a brief issue relating to the travel logistics of representatives from Tajikistan to the in-person course,however this was rectified,and they were fully engaged in the program.Pleasingly,the in-person course also attracted a range of additional stakeholders,including representatives from a range of institutions actively involved in road safety and sustainable mobility throughout the region.These included representatives from:World Health Organization International Road Federation EBRD Eurasia Office A full list of participants is included as Annex D to this report.III.Program Assessment The significance of the course hosted in Bishkek was demonstrated by the presence of local media.Noting ADBs contribution,local journalists published articles and there were two television reports including on the National State Channel.4 4 6:06:(16)|15:00|26.02.2024-YouTube;CARECs week-long road safety program kicked off in Bishkek:(kabar.kg);().12 A course evaluation was disseminated following the completion of phase 2 of this project.This was completed by all course participants.The program received extremely positive feedback,highlighting the success of the program.This is represented in summary table below:Pleasingly the evaluation also outlined a range of ways that participants would directly apply learning in their work,which indicated that participants were able to see direct relevance of learning to their activities.A range of further topics were raised as useful to include in future trainings,including but not limited to:Road safety and wildlife hazards Crash analysis School road safety Further practical activities Further opportunities to showcase approaches in their countries There were some useful suggestions for other stakeholders who could be engaged in future workshops,including representatives from Ministry of Health/emergency services,journalists and municipal governments.The online phase one was well received,however unsurprisingly the in-person workshop was most impactful for participants,and they requested further opportunities in the future.It was made clear through the evaluation that the course was extremely well received and there is strong appetite for future engagements that combine technical knowledge and multi-nation and multi-agency collaborative learning.A summary of the course evaluation is included as Annex E of this report.0 0Pp0%ExcellentGoodAveragePoorVery Poor 13 IV.Recommendations The following recommendations are outlined in consideration of future opportunities to engage stakeholders across the CAREC region on road safety and sustainable mobility:-Based on the positive evaluation and range of countries not eligible for this iteration,the existing course should be made available to other eligible countries in the CAREC region.-The course evaluation clearly shows a desire to build upon the initial engagement with participants of the 2024 course to offer future initiatives that extend collaboration and learning and capitalize upon the initial investment in these participants and agencies.-Offering programs for cross-disciplinary teams from multiple countries has strong outcomes in supporting institutional strengthening and cooperation.-Due consideration should be given to the following issues not covered in the 2024 course:o Post-crash response o Financing and funding models o Climate sustainable transport options o Urban and town planning o Gender and transport planning o School road safety o Crash analysis o Digitalisation o Further opportunities for collaborative activities and country experience sharing-Further consideration should be given to engaging relevant agencies and ministries relating to safer vehicle regulations,emergency care,municipal government and journalists.-Co-creation of capacity development by multiple development partners should be used as a mechanism to coordinate and align essential knowledge and skills building along a consistent pathway.-Sufficient human resourcing should be made available to continue providing relevant materials through the online community of practice.-More time should be allowed for the nomination of participants to allow for organizers to receive relevant participant information prior to the course.-Travel requirements,including visas,should be thoroughly checked through ADB Resident Missions.14 V.Annexes Annex A Course Agenda CAREC Road Safety and Sustainable Mobility Course Park Hotel,Bishkek,Kyrgyz Republic 26 February 1 March 2024 Public Agenda Monday 26 February Objectives -Setting the scene:Outlining the relevance of the Safe System Approach-Build knowledge of the global plan and CAREC road safety plans TIME SESSION FACILITATOR(S)8:00 9:00 Registration and Coffee 9:00 9:15 Welcome and Course Introduction Blaise Murphet Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB Dildar Zakir,CI 9:15 10:00 Opening Remarks Yrysbek Bariev,MoTC Tynychbek Saidov,MIA Zheng Wu,ADB Bakhtiyor Faiziev,EBRD 10:00 10:45 Setting the Scene Safe System Analysis David Shelton,ADB 10:45 11:15 Group photo/Tea/Coffee/Networking 11:15 13:00 Setting the Scene Safe System Analysis -Safe System Approach to Road Safety-Global Plan of Action for Road Safety-CAREC Road Safety Strategy David Shelton,ADB Dave Cliff,GRSP Ritu Mishra,ADB Rapporteur:Dildar Zakir,CI 13:00 14:00 Lunch 14:00 15:30 Coordination and Collaboration of Safe System Implementation David Shelton,ADB Egidijus Skrodenis,MC Emma MacLennan,EASST Rapporteur:Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB 15 15:30 16:00 Tea/Coffee/Networking 17:30 19:30 Opening Reception Tuesday 27 February Objectives -Build understanding of best practice approaches to safer roads and roadside infrastructure-Outline the role of effective community engagement in support of infrastructure improvements TIME SESSION FACILITATOR(S)9:00 9:30 Day 1 Recap Discussion Sessions Blaise Murphet Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB Dildar Zakir,CI 9:30 11:00 Safer Roads and Roadside Infrastructure Phil Jordan,RSI Egidijus Skrodenis,MC Rapporteur:Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB 11:00 11:30 Tea/Coffee/Networking 11:30 13:00 Safer Roads and Roadside Infrastructure-Practical activity Phil Jordan,RSI Egidijus Skrodenis,MC Rapporteur:Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB 13:00 14:00 Lunch 14:00 15:30 Community Engagement in Support of Safer Roads and Roadside Infrastructure Emma MacLennan,EASST Chinara Kasmambetova,PA Road Safety Rapporteur:Dildar Zakir,CI 15:30 16:00 Tea/Coffee/Networking 16:00 17:00 Community Engagement in Support of Safer Roads and Roadside Infrastructure Emma MacLennan,EASST Chinara Kasmambetova,PA Road Safety Rapporteur:Dildar Zakir,CI 16 Wednesday 28 February Objectives -Build understanding of evidence-based interventions to protect road users-Identify practical steps to partner collaboration to support implementation of interventions TIME SESSION FACILITATOR(S)9:00 9:30 Day 2 Recap Discussion Sessions Blaise Murphet Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB Dildar Zakir,CAREC Institute 9:30 10:30 Safer Road Users Dave Cliff,GRSP Emma MacLennan,EASST David Shelton,ADB Chinara Kasmambetova,PA Road Safety Rapporteur:Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB 10:30 11:00 Tea/Coffee/Networking 11:00 13:00 Safer Road Users Dave Cliff,GRSP Emma MacLennan,EASST David Shelton,ADB Chinara Kasmambetova,PA Road Safety Rapporteur:Dildar Zakir,CI 13:00 14:00 Lunch 14:00 15:30 Safer Road Users Practical Activity Partner Collaboration Blaise Murphet Dave Cliff,GRSP Emma MacLennan,EASST Chinara Kasmambetova,PA Road Safety Rapporteur:Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB 15:30 16:00 Tea/Coffee/Networking 17 16:00 17:00 Safer Road Users Panel Discussion and Feedback Blaise Murphet Dave Cliff,GRSP Emma MacLennan,EASST Chinara Kasmambetova,PA Road Safety Rapporteur:Dildar Zakir,CI Thursday 29 February Objectives -Build knowledge of the role of vehicle safety technologies and the regulatory environment required to implement-Experience practical implementation of road safety interventions in Bishkek-Explore opportunities to improve data systems to inform road safety implementation TIME SESSION FACILITATOR(S)9:00 9:30 Day 3 Recap Discussion Sessions Blaise Murphet Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB Dildar Zakir,CAREC Institute 9:30 12:00 Site Visit-Road Safety Interventions in Bishkek General Directorate of Road Safety,Kyrgyz Republic Rapporteur:Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB 12:00 13:00 Lunch 13:00 14:00 Site Visit Recap Phil Jordan,RSI David Shelton,ADB Egidijus Skrodenis,MC Rapporteur:Dildar Zakir,CI 14:00 15:00 Safer Vehicles Jess Truong,TZF Rapporteur:Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB 15:00 15:30 Tea/Coffee/Networking 15:30 17:00 Data Systems to Inform Road Safety Management and Implementation David Shelton,ADB Phil Jordan,RSI 18 Taalaibek Matkerimov,KSTU Rapporteur:Dildar Zakir,CI Friday 1 March Objectives -Explore opportunities to improve data systems to inform road safety implementation-Discuss the practical applicability of key concepts moving forward TIME SESSION FACILITATOR(S)8:30 9:00 Day 4 Recap Blaise Murphet Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB Dildar Zakir,CI 9:00 10:30 Upcoming Initiatives in CAREC Region Julio Urzua&Luke Rogers,iRAP Ritu Mishra,ADB David Shelton,ADB Rapporteur:Honey May M.Guerzon,ADB 10:30 11:00 Tea/Coffee/Networking 11:00 12:00 Data Systems:Practical Implementation Activity David Shelton,ADB 12:00 13:00 Implementation of Key Concepts David Shelton,ADB Phil Jordan,RSI Emma MacLennan,EASST Ritu Mishra,ADB Egidijus Skrodenis,MC Rapporteur:Dildar Zakir,CI 13:00 14:00 Lunch 14:00 14:30 Workshop Evaluation Blaise Murphet Dildar Zakir,CI 14:30 15:30 Closing Ceremony/Tea/Coffee David Shelton,ADB 19 Annex B Course Content The course online platform can be found here:https:/elearning.carecinstitute.org/carec-road-safety-and-sustainable-mobility This includes all presentations delivered during the in-person course.Annex C Snapshots Ms.Emma MacLennan,Director General,EASSTMs.Emma MacLennan,Director General,EASST talking talking about safer roadsabout safer roads Resource Speakers with the country Resource Speakers with the country parparticipants ticipants during during the breakthe break EnsurEnsureded the participation of women to address gender the participation of women to address gender equalityequality Certificates issued to the country participants on completion Certificates issued to the country participants on completion of the workshopof the workshop Mr.David Shelton,Senior Transport Specialist Mr.David Shelton,Senior Transport Specialist(Road Safety),(Road Safety),Leader APRSO Secretariat,ADBLeader APRSO Secretariat,ADB working on practical activityworking on practical activity Mr.PhillipMr.Phillip Jordan,Principal Consultant,Jordan,Principal Consultant,Road Safety Road Safety InternationalInternational discuss discuss aboutabout road safety auditroad safety audit 20 Annex D List of Participants Kazakhstan 1.Mr.Arman Kushev,Head,Department of Construction and Reconstruction of the Committee of Highways of the Ministry of Transport 2.Mr.Gabid Shymyrbayev,Head,Department of Operation of the Committee of Highways of the Ministry of Transport 3.Mr.Azamat Bazarbekov,Manager of the First Category,Department of Road Maintenance,JSC NC KazAvtoJol 4.Mr.Kanat Sadvakassov,Head,Department of Safety and Organization of Road Construction at Kazakhstan Road Research Institute“KazdorNII”JSC 5.Mr.Arystan Massanov,Director,Kazakh Scientific Research Institute for Road Safety Kyrgyz Republic 6.Mr.Maksat Zhumabaev,Road Traffic Engineer of the ADB Investment Project Implementation Group,of the Ministry of Transport and Communications 7.Mr.Madiiar Madalbekov,Senior Inspector on Chy Oblast,Department of Control and Supervision in Road Transport Safety,Ministry of Transport and Communications Mr.Yrysbek Bariev,Deputy Minister of Transport and Mr.Yrysbek Bariev,Deputy Minister of Transport and CommunicationsCommunications of the Kyrgyz Republicof the Kyrgyz Republic and and Mr.Zheng Wu,Mr.Zheng Wu,Country Director,Kyrgyz Republic Resident Mission,ADBCountry Director,Kyrgyz Republic Resident Mission,ADB with country participantswith country participants Country participantsCountry participants with the Resource Speakerswith the Resource Speakers D Discussions and recommendationsiscussions and recommendations during sduring site visit with ite visit with G Grouproup 2 2 S Site visit ite visit to to intersections intersections toto observe the features installed observe the features installed at the intersectionsat the intersections with with G Group 1 roup 1 21 8.Mr.Adylbek uulu Abdraman-Temur,Senior Inspector of the Department of Control and Supervision in Road Transport Safety,Ministry of Transport and Communications 9.Ms.Almash Kamchybekova,Senior Inspector of Transport Control Division,Land and Water Transportation Department,Ministry of Transport and Communications 10.Ms.Nargiza Adylbekova,Senior Specialist-Road Engineer,Road Maintenance Division,State Enterprise“Kyrgyzautojol”under the Ministry of Transport and Communications 11.Mr.Altynbek Tengizbaev,Senior Inspector,Office of the Interior Department on Road Traffic Safety of Osh Region,Ministry of the Interior 12.Ms.Cholponai Maraeva,Head of Organizational and Inspection Division of the Patrol Service Division of the Police in Osh city,Ministry of the Interior 13.Mr.Tynychbek Saidov,Head of Road Inspection Department/Lieutenant Colonel,General Directorate for Road Traffic Safety,Ministry of the Interior 14.Mr.Bolot Berdigulov,Senior Inspector-Law Consultant,Road Patrol Service Department,General Directorate for Road Traffic Safety,Ministry of the Interior 15.Mr.Urmat Tilenbaev,Senior Inspector,General Directorate for Road Traffic Safety,Ministry of the Interior 16.Mr.Islam Suyuntbekov,Head of the Department“Operation of Transport and Technological Machines”,Kyrgyz State Technical University named after I.Razzakov 17.Ms.Saltanat Omurkanova,Leading Specialist,School and Pre-School Education Department,Ministry of Education 18.Ms.Gulsun Zhorobekova,Specialist,International Cooperation and Investments Division,Ministry of Education 19.Mr.Kurmanbek Turdumamatov,Senior Specialist,Department of Medical and Pharmaceutical Care,Ministry of Health 20.Mr.Kylychbek Dusumaliev,Head of Information Policy Division,Ministry of Transport and Communications 21.Mr.Myktaraliev Narmanbet,Leading Specialist in Road Construction,State Enterprise“Kyrgyzautojol”under the Ministry of Transport and Communications 22.Mr.Boronov Bektur,Head of State Enterprise“Kyrgyzautojol”Osh Filial under the Ministry of Transport and Communications Tajikistan 23.Mr.Begijon Ziyoev,Deputy Head of the Department of Road Construction and Management,Ministry of Transport 24.Mr.Begijon Davlatzoda,Chief Specialist of the Department of Economic Analysis and Prospects,Ministry of Transport 25.Ms.Rukhshona Oymahmadova,Chief Specialist,International Relations Department,Ministry of Transport 26.Mr.Bakhtiyor Ghaforov,Chief Specialist of the Department of Finance and Accounting,Ministry of Transport 27.Mr.Murodjon Jamoliyon,Head of the Traffic Control and Organization Unit of the State Vehicle Inspection Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs(unable to attend)Turkmenistan 28.Mr.Azat Podarov,Head of Roads and Traffic Management Department at the State Agency for Management of Roads Construction 29.Mr.Muhammetbayram Bashgulyyev,Head,Road Traffic Safety and Labour Protection Department,“Turkmenavtoulaglary”Agency 22 30.Mr.Rahat Torayev,Senior Legal Advisor,Legal Division for Special Assignment,Department of Law and International Relations,Ministry of Interior 31.Mr.Dovletyar Myradov,Senior Inspector,Traffic Police Department,Ministry of Interior 32.Mr.Mergen Hojageldiyev,Senior Specialist,Department for Transportation,Technical and Road Traffic Safety on Road Transport,Agency of Transport and Communications under the Cabinet of Ministers(unable to attend)Uzbekistan 33.Mr.Bokhodir Koraboev,Head of Road Facilities Department,Ministry of Transport 34.Ms.Sevara Ashurova,Chief Specialist of Public Transport Department,Ministry of Transport 35.Mr.Shokhzod Abulkosimov,Chief Specialist of the Committee of Roads,Ministry of Transport 36.Mr.Narimonjon Uzakov,Chief Specialist of Public Transport Department,Ministry of Transport 37.Mr.Botir Ergashev,Leading Specialist,Center for the Research of Transport Problems,Ministry of Transport Resource persons 1.Mr.David Shelton,Senior Transport Specialist(Road Safety),Leader APRSO Secretariat,ADB 2.Ms.Ritu Mishra,Transport Specialist,Transport Sector Office,Sector Group,ADB 3.Ms.Emma MacLennan,Director General,Eastern Alliance for Safe and Sustainable Transport(EASST)4.Mr.Phillip Jordan,Principal Consultant,Road Safety International 5.Mr.David Cliff,CEO,Global Road Safety Partnership(GRSP)6.Mr.Blaise Murphet,Senior Consultant,ADB 7.Ms.Chinara Kasmambetova,Director,Public Association Road Safety Kyrgyzstan 8.Mr.Egidijus Skrodenis,Partner for Road Safety and Innovations,MC Mobility Consultants GmbH 9.Ms.Jessica Truong,Towards Zero Foundation(participate online)10.Mr.Taalaibek Matkerimov,Director of the Institute of Transport,Kyrgyz State Technical University named after I.Razzakov Special guests 1.Mr.Yrysbek Bariev,Deputy Minister of Transport and Communications of the Kyrgyz Republic 2.Mr.Zheng Wu,Country Director,Kyrgyz Republic Resident Mission,ADB 3.Mr.Bakhtiyor Faiziev,Associate Director,Senior Banker,EBRD 4.Mr.Meder Turgunbekov,Advisor to CAREC NFP,Kyrgyz Republic 5.Mr.Mirdin Eshenaliev,Senior Project Officer,Kyrgyz Republic Resident Mission,ADB 6.Mr.Dmitry Sambuk,Deputy Director General,EASST 7.Mr.Julio Urzua,Global Projects Director,iRAP 8.Mr.Luke Rogers,Global Operations Manager,iRAP 9.Ms.Julia Funk,Senior Programme Manager&Head of Statistics,IRF 10.Mr.Paul Disney,Lead Expert,UNRSF Safe and Inclusive Road Design in Central Asia Project 11.Ms.Saltanat Salieva,National Programme Officer,Human Resources for Health,WHO Country Office in Kyrgyzstan 12.Mr.Talant Ibraev,Project Coordinator,Public Association Road Safety Kyrgyzstan 13.Ms.Takhmina Egemberdi kyzy,Analyst,Infrastructure Department(Eurasia),EBRD 14.Ms.Zhyldyz Zholdoshbekova,Analyst,Infrastructure Department(Eurasia),EBRD 23 CAREC Secretariat 1.Ms.Honey May L.Manzano-Guerzon,Knowledge Management Officer,CWRC,ADB(participate online)2.Ms.Gulshat Raissova,CAREC Institute Coordinator,CWRC,ADB 3.Ms.Aidana Berdybekova,Regional Cooperation Coordinator,Kyrgyz Republic Resident Mission,ADB 4.Ms.Dildar Zakir,Capacity Building Specialist,CAREC Institute 5.Mr.Gary Huang,E-Learning Specialist,CAREC Institute Interpreters 1.Ms.Tatiana Mashenskaya,Kyrgyz Republic 2.Mr.Sergei Gavrilin,Kyrgyz Republic Annex E Course Evaluation Summary Feedback from participants After the completion of the workshop,attendees were handed feedback forms to gauge their experience.Presented below are visual representations of the survey results,complemented by written comments provided by the participants.The overall consensus from the feedback is overwhelmingly positive,highlighting the success of the workshop.Additionally,insightful suggestions for potential areas of improvement for future workshops were also noted,underscoring the commitment to continual enhancement and refinement.0 0Pp0%ExcellentGoodAveragePoorVery Poor 24 How will you apply knowledge gained in this course to your work(please be specific about your plans)?1.Implementation of Road Safety Measures:Preparation of proposals for management.Application of knowledge in Road Safety Audit and evaluation.Ensuring road safety of motor vehicles.Developing plans of activities.Introducing changes to regulations/legal framework.2.Awareness and Advocacy:Promoting compliance with road safety regulations among peers.Sharing information about road safety courses through various media channels.Presenting ideas and gained knowledge to management and colleagues.Sharing materials and knowledge with friends,colleagues,and students.Cooperation and projects with relevant organizations like CAREC.3.Utilization of Workshop Material:Integration of workshop material into lectures and research.Application of knowledge in road safety prevention activities.Serious application of gained knowledge in work.Analyzing gained knowledge and presenting it to qualified specialists.Continued interaction for improvement of data collection on road accidents.4.Infrastructure and Policy:Development and implementation of regulations and norms for road safety.Road maintenance,repair,and installation of road signs.Organizing seminars and courses on road safety.Reorganizing road traffic,including removal of traffic lights and reorganization of certain locations.Improvement of road infrastructure.5.International Collaboration:Signing contracts with international organizations for road safety audits.Cooperation with CAREC and other international counterparts for road safety initiatives.This summary encapsulates the diverse range of actions and initiatives proposed by participants based on their feedback,highlighting a comprehensive approach towards enhancing road safety.Which agencies or stakeholders in your country could benefit from future deliveries of this course(this can include your own agency)?1.Government Entities:Ministry of Internal Affairs(Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan).Ministry of Health(Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan).Ministry of Transport and Communications(Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan).Ministry of Emergency Situations(Kyrgyz Republic).Ministry of Digital Development(Kyrgyz Republic).Ministry of Economy(Kyrgyz Republic)2.Local Authorities:Local executive governments(Kazakhstan).Local self-governments(Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic).3.Road Safety Departments and Committees:Road Traffic Safety Department(Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic).25 Committee of administrative safety/security of the Ministry of Internal Affairs(Kazakhstan).Road Safety Service(Uzbekistan).Road Safety Committee(Uzbekistan).4.Educational Institutions:Universities(Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan).Colleges(Kyrgyz Republic,Uzbekistan).Tashkent Transport University(Uzbekistan).5.Non-Governmental Organizations(NGOs)and Civil Society:Public Unions(Kazakhstan).Mass Media(Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan).6.Other Relevant Entities:KazDorNII(Kazakhstan).KazAutoZhol(Kazakhstan).National Center for the Quality of Road Assets(Kazakhstan).Driving schools(Kyrgyz Republic).Turkmenawtoulaglary Agency(Turkmenistan).Road construction agencies(Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan).Health Departments(Kyrgyz Republic,Uzbekistan).Traffic Police(Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan).Road design organizations(Uzbekistan).Transport vehicles Control Inspectorate(Uzbekistan).Ministry of Construction and Housing and Communal Services(Uzbekistan).This summary outlines the broad range of stakeholders across governmental,educational,civil society,and other sectors,demonstrating the comprehensive approach needed for effective collaboration in road safety initiatives.Do you have any comments or suggestions on the presentations by Speakers/Presenters?1.Interactive Engagement:Participants suggested incorporating more interactive elements to engage the audience,such as short breaks with exercises for the body and eyes.2.Expansion of Presentations:Some participants recommended expanding presentations with more detailed information for better understanding.3.Respect for Speakers:Many participants expressed respect and appreciation for the speakers,acknowledging their interesting,concise,and precise presentations.4.Interest in Regional Cases:There was a desire among participants to see more cases from Central Asian countries to better understand regional perspectives.5.Practical Work and Enforcement:Suggestions were made for more practical work and inclusion of presenters specializing in enforcement-related topics.6.Clear Answers:26 Participants requested clear answers regarding practices used in the presenters respective countries.7.Multimedia Integration:Some participants suggested including videos in future presentation materials to enhance content delivery.8.Appreciation for Presenters:Overall,participants expressed gratitude and admiration for the informative and high-quality presentations delivered by the speakers.9.Frequency of Events:Many participants emphasized the importance of conducting such events more frequently to facilitate exchange of experience and opinions among countries.10.Overall Satisfaction:Participants generally expressed satisfaction with the presentations and did not have specific suggestions for improvement.These comments reflect the appreciation for the presentations,while also highlighting areas for potential enhancements,such as interactivity,regional case studies,and multimedia integration Do you have any comments or suggestions that would help us improve our future events?(a)Duration of the course(b)Quality of the discussions(c)Participant Mix(d)Facilitation 1.Case Studies and Examples:Include more case studies/examples to illustrate changes due to safety systems.2.Presentation Time:Allocate sufficient time(20-30 minutes)for the presentation of country experiences.3.Discussion Time:Increase time for discussions to foster deeper engagement and understanding.4.Participant Involvement:Expand the participant circle to involve more stakeholders.Ensure a diverse mix of participants including engineers,road police officers,and local self-governments.5.Government and Emergency Situations Representation:Invite representatives from government ministries and emergency services.Include individuals from design institutes for broader perspectives.6.Audience Engagement:27 Incorporate audience questioning during presentations to enhance comprehension.Organize such activities regularly to maintain engagement.7.Participant Diversity:Widening the participant list to include journalists for broader dissemination of information.8.Technical Issues:Address technical issues such as screen discomfort during presentations.9.Q&A and Discussion Time:Increase time allocated for questions,answers,and discussions.10.Facilitation:Ensure effective facilitation to enhance workshop dynamics.11.Workshop Duration:Consider decreasing hours per day and increasing the number of days for better retention and engagement.12.Participant Selection:Select participants more thoroughly based on their competence.13.Legal Support:Emphasize enforcement and legal support aspects in the workshop.14.Workshop Length:Consider shortening the duration to 2-3 days based on feedback.15.Frequency of Discussions:Conduct discussions more frequently to clarify and elaborate on topics,involving a wider group of participants.What capacity development needs/issues/subjects/themes would you like the course organizers to address in its future events?1.Road Design and Construction:Address road design and construction methods for enhanced safety.2.Road Traffic Organization:Discuss methods to organize road traffic for increased safety.3.Wildlife Hazards:Review issues related to animals on the roadside and propose measures to reduce crashes involving domestic and wild animals.4.Speed Management:Introduce average speed measures on country roads for improved safety.5.Crash Analysis:Conduct engineer-technical analysis of road crashes and offer specific proposals for improvement.28 6.Group Activities:Organize more group activities involving participants from different countries for exchange of experience and cooperation.7.Practical Exercises:Include more video materials and practical exercises to reinforce learning.8.Future Seminar Topics:Include topics related to vehicle safety,iRAP,RS Audit,and changes in construction norms.9.Experience Exchange:Facilitate opportunities for education and exchange of practices among countries.10.Pedestrian Safety:Address pedestrian safety issues near schools,hospitals,and kindergartens.11.Data Collection and Analysis:Provide methodology and tools for data collection and analysis in road safety research.12.Case Studies and Site Visits:Incorporate more case studies,practical activities,and site visits for hands-on learning experiences.13.Enforcement and Legal Support:Enforcement and legal support for crash investigations and road safety improvements.14.Highway Safety:Focus on safety measures in highway transportation.15.Data Mining and Analysis:Teach methods for data mining and analysis to inform road safety measures.16.Practical Engagement:Include more practical activities and site visits for a deeper understanding of road safety challenges and solutions.17.Interdepartmental Collaboration:Improve systems for data collection on road crashes through interdepartmental collaboration.Overall,these suggestions aim to enhance the workshops effectiveness by addressing specific topics,providing practical exercises,and facilitating greater collaboration and exchange of knowledge among participants.How did you find the Phase 1 Online Capacity Building part of the course?1.Excellent format:Participants found the course format to be excellent overall.2.Distraction during Working Hours:29 Some participants noted that the online format didnt prevent distraction during working hours,as they had to attend to other duties simultaneously.3.Preference for Face-to-Face Learning:Many participants expressed a preference for face-to-face learning,believing it to be more conducive to better learning and analysis.4.Language Accessibility:Suggestions were made to provide translations of video materials into Russian to improve accessibility for participants.5.Material Preparation:Participants suggested forwarding materials beforehand to allow for adequate preparation,especially in online sessions.6.Mixed Opinions on Online vs.Offline Learning:While some participants felt that online learning was less interesting compared to offline,others preferred offline classes for better engagement.How did you find Phase 2 face to face mode of the course?1.Face-to-Face Sessions Preferred:Participants strongly preferred face-to-face sessions,emphasizing the importance of maintaining consistent participant composition to ensure initiatives are effectively followed through.2.Specialized Courses:Suggestions were made to organize courses specifically focused on the accreditation of engineers in Road Safety in Kazakhstan,indicating a need for specialized training programs.3.Improved Comprehension:Participants noted that face-to-face sessions allowed for better understanding and comprehension of speakers without distractions.4.Timely Material Sharing:Emphasized the importance of timely sharing of course materials for better comprehension and preparation.5.Practical Exercises:Participants expressed a desire for offline courses to include practical exercises,enhancing the learning experience.6.Support for Offline Courses:Strong support was voiced for offline courses due to increased communication and the opportunity for exchange of experiences among participants.7.Positive Experience:Overall,participants had a positive experience with the offline format,particularly appreciating the diverse representation from all CAREC countries.30 These suggestions highlight the importance of face-to-face interaction,specialized training opportunities,and the inclusion of practical exercises to enhance the effectiveness of future courses.Other Comments or Suggestions 1.Visual Presentations:Participants suggested making presentations more attractive and colorful,with less text,and incorporating lively speakers who show emotions and humor.2.Frequency of Events:Many participants expressed a desire for more frequent workshops or seminars on road safety.3.Cooperation Development:Suggestions were made for further development of cooperation among participants from different countries.4.Session Schedule:Some participants proposed extending sessions instead of having a coffee break,to finish earlier.5.Positive Feedback and Encouragement:Overall,participants found the event interesting,informative,and entertaining,expressing gratitude to the organizers and speakers.6.Educational Centers:There were suggestions to establish educational and qualification upgrade centers based on universities for continuous learning opportunities.7.Continuous Exchange of Experience:Participants recommended regular meetings with experts from neighboring countries to exchange experiences and increase capacity.8.Data Mining:Specific interest was expressed in learning about road safety data mining processes and data collection methods.9.Gratitude to Organizers:Many participants expressed gratitude to the organizers and speakers for the well-organized and informative event.10.Call for More Events:Participants emphasized the need for more such meetings and seminars in the future.Overall,the feedback highlights the importance of dynamic presentations,continuous learning opportunities,and collaborative efforts in enhancing road safety initiatives across different countries.

1人已浏览 2024-04-22 31页 5星级

How AI is reshaping the autoindustry:A look at 15high-momentumtechnologies across theautomotive value chainWe highlight emerging tech markets across automotive R&D,manufacturing,sales,vehicle use,and the aftermarket.Automotive firms are grappling with several disruptive forces.A major one is that the shift toward a fully electric,software-defined vehicle is drivingR&D and production costs higher while demanding more agility and flexibility fromautomakers.The growing adoption of new vehicle form factors will also change howvehicles are sold,used,and maintained,requiring new financing models and repairprocesses.Meanwhile,the proliferation of online car-buying and more sophisticated e-commercetechnology across other retail verticals has pressured automotive dealerships to investin an increasingly digital experience to meet car buyer expectations.In response to these trends,an emerging set of companies is leveraging large languagemodels(LLMs)and AI more broadly to build a new set of tools and capabilities acrossthe automotive value chain,from AI copilots used in manufacturing,sales,and servicing,to microfactories for production and automated vehicle inspection in the aftermarket.These solutions hold substantial potential to help automotive players drive growth,improve visibility,and reduce costs across their lines of business.In this report,we use CB Insights data to identify 15 high-momentum technologymarkets across the automotive value chain.We focus on solutions that are seeingpositive sentiment from investors at earlier deployment stages,but which we expect tohave a notable impact within the next 5-10 years.Our analysis factors in funding,analyst briefings,business relationships,headcount growth,Mosaic scores,and more.This report was created using the help of CBIs Instant Insights tool.Customers cangenerate scouting reports,analyze funding patterns,and dig deeper into businessrelationships for each of the companies mentioned in this report using this tool.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|2ContentsKey takeaways4R&D4Generative design4Quantum computing for chemical&material simulation53D printing6Production&assembly7Discrete manufacturing analytics platforms7Industrial humanoid robots7Manufacturing AI copilots8Microfactories9Sales&distribution9Automotive digital engagement platforms9Electric vehicle financing platforms10Vehicle use10Software-defined vehicle(SDV)platforms11Automotive cybersecurity11Fleet maintenance platforms12Aftermarket12Automotive aftermarket copilots13Automated vehicle inspection13Digital vehicle maintenance&repair13Looking ahead14Tech startups across the auto value chain14How AI is reshaping the auto industry|3Key takeaways1.AI and quantum computing are accelerating vehicle development and reducingR&D costs,allowing OEMs to introduce new designs,prototypes,and materials.2.Automotive production will see gains from more sophisticated robotics andautomation solutions,laying the groundwork for cost-effective,modularproduction of next-generation vehicles.3.AI is enabling a more personalized,efficient automotive sales process,with newfintech solutions and engagement tools speeding up the sales cycle andimproving accessibility for car buyers.4.Connected vehicle technology is enabling real-time visibility into vehicle healthand security,providing OEMs with valuable data to enhance other facets of theauto value chain and the in-vehicle experience.5.Chatbots and computer vision-led inspection solutions are driving efficienciesin vehicle repair,improving service desk productivity and technician accuracy.R&DAI and quantum computing are accelerating vehicle development and reducing R&DcostsThe shift toward a fully electric,autonomous,and connected vehicle is requiringautomakers to invest substantially in R&D.Concurrently,automakers are working to meet aggressive sustainability goals,addingchallenges like reducing emissions and waste during production.In response,many OEMs are experimenting with tech-enabled solutions to speed updevelopment and prototyping,while also lowering costs.Generative designDesign tools are integrating generative AI capabilities to accelerate product validation.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|4Using generative design tools,engineers can set parameters for an end product,such asan automotive component made of certain materials that should also be lightweightand highly efficient.The generative design software will run simulations,generating arange of outputs and then deciding which works best.Monolith,for example,is developing a solution that allows engineers to input theirdesign goals with parameters around component performance,materials,manufacturing methods,and cost constraints.Monoliths solution then explores allpossible combinations of these parameters,ultimately suggesting an optimal design.The company is already working with leading automakers such as BMW,Honda,andMercedes-Benz on applications like improving vehicle acoustics and speeding up EVbattery development.Quantum computing for chemical&material simulationQuantum computers process information in a fundamentally different way thanconventional computers.This opens up new types of algorithms that show promise forapplications like training machine learning models,discovering materials,and solvingcomplex optimization problems involving lots of variables.As the tech matures,quantum computers will allow engineers to run simulations faster and with greateraccuracy.For example,Terra Quantum is developing quantum solutions to support automotiveplayers with discovering new materials and building better batteries.The early-stagestartup has raised$86M in total funding and has grown its headcount 3x over the past 2years.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|5Terra is also working with Volkswagen Groups Data Lab on other applications ofquantum computing in automotive development,such as improving AI training forvehicle image recognition systems.3D printingAdvances in AI are improving 3D printing for automotive R&D.For example,metal additive manufacturing firm 1000 Kelvin,which raised$3M in seedfunding in November 2023,is developing an AI copilot for 3D printing.This tool isintended to predict issues and perform corrections in real time,reducing the number ofprinting attempts needed during development and enabling more complex parts to bemade that would otherwise require time-consuming design iterations.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|6Production&assemblyAutomotive production will see gains from more sophisticated robotics andautomation solutionsThe rise of generative AI has had an impact across the production process,includinghelping humanoid robots learn complex tasks more quickly and poweringmanufacturing copilots.AI is also enhancing existing technologies such asmanufacturing analytics platforms and factory floor automation solutions.Discrete manufacturing analytics platformsIndustrial IoT platforms for discrete manufacturing capture and assess data fromsystems and machines and then use this data to identify ways to make themanufacturing process more efficient.Companies in this space are developing tools to help OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers lowerenergy use,reduce water consumption,improve yield,and predict equipment failures.Platforms like Tulip and Cognite combine LLMs with these datasets to expediteworkflows.Industrial humanoid robotsFactory robots have been central to automating the manufacturing process for a longtime,but in recent months,humanoid robots have captured the attention of investors,automakers,and big tech firms.These robots resemble the human body in form and aretypically designed to handle a broader range of tasks including those still currentlyhandled by humans than traditional robot form factors.Humanoid robots have also been given a boost from the use of LLMs to facilitate moreeffective human-robot interactions.Growth-stage humanoid robotics players have closed large investments in 2024,withFigure raising$675M in Series B funding in February and competitor 1X raising$100Min Series B funding in January.BMW recently announced a collaboration with Figure to begin testing itsgeneral-purpose humanoid robot in auto manufacturing environments.Mercedes-BenzHow AI is reshaping the auto industry|7partnered with Apptronik to deploy its humanoid robot,Apollo,on the assembly line.Meanwhile,Tesla is working on its own humanoid form factor,which it plans to use forvehicle production and assembly in its manufacturing facilities.Dig into how players in the industrial humanoid robots market stack up using the CBInsights ESP ranking tool.Manufacturing AI copilotsGenerative AI has fueled the emergence of manufacturing AI copilots,which workalongside human operators to analyze large datasets and provide real-time suggestionsfor process improvements.For instance,manufacturing optimization platform Retrocausals copilot monitors theworkflow of automotive production workers.The company claims it is capable ofcatching 80%of worker mistakes,cutting down line-stopping events by half andreducing the time needed for onboarding.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|8MicrofactoriesSome automakers are exploring the use of microfactories,which operate as small,modular,and highly automated manufacturing cells that are designed to replace thetraditional assembly line.Microfactories are intended to make production more customizable and adaptablewithout requiring big equipment overhauls potentially offering new models formanufacturing at smaller scales.SAEKI Robotics,which raised$2M in seed funding in August 2023,offers arobotics-as-a-service model for customers to book cells to produce large components,allowing automakers to bypass the cost of retooling their machines.Sales&distributionAI is enabling a more personalized,transparent automotive sales processAutomotive retail has seen several transformational shifts over the last few years.As the pandemic spurred traditional dealers to adopt digital selling and e-commerceenablement tools,digital dealerships such as Vroom and Shift rode the wave to gopublic but have since floundered due to profitability issues.Teslas direct-to-consumer(D2C)sales model has also influenced other automakers toreconsider conventional dealership distribution and adopt a more tech-forwardapproach to vehicle sales,though the transition has been slow.Given the challenges associated with a large-scale shift to online sales or a D2C model,auto dealers have been exploring a number of technologies that are easier to deploy inthe near term.Automotive digital engagement platformsDigital engagement firms such as Orbee and Impel are developing copilots forautomotive sales teams.These solutions aim to accelerate the sales process byleveraging customer data to deliver personalized marketing and customercommunication.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|9Companies in the space are already partnering with automotive retailers.Impel,for one,is working with auto dealership solutions provider CDK Global,which plans to integrateImpels conversational AI platform into its existing customer experience solution.Electric vehicle financing platformsAs automakers increasingly move electric,companies such as EV Life and Tenet aredesigning fintech products for EV financing.These help users access loans that takeinto account EV tax credits,rebates,and home charger installation costs.These solutions streamline the financing process for dealerships and customers,making it easier to assess customer creditworthiness,compare multiple financingoptions,and complete transactions efficiently.EV financing firms are also leveragingsolutions like predictive lending to improve their offerings,as highlighted by digging intoEV financing business relationships using CBIs AI-powered Business RelationshipInsights tool.Vehicle useConnected vehicle technology is enabling real-time visibility into vehicle health andsecurityWith the rise of vehicle connectivity,several tech-enabled solutions are emerging toenhance vehicle functionality and safety on the road.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|10When connected,vehicles on the road are generating datasets that are valuable tostakeholders across the value chain,including OEMs,Tier 1 suppliers,and automotiveretailers.Vehicle diagnostics data,for example,can help inform OEMs and suppliers forproduct development purposes,while also enabling predictive maintenance for autodealerships and service centers allowing for more proactive vehicle repair and bettercustomer service.Software-defined vehicle(SDV)platformsSoftware-defined vehicle platforms allow vehicles to be controlled,managed,andupdated through software rather than just dedicated hardware components.Thisenables OEMs to deliver updates and new features(like upgraded automated drivingfeatures)to cars over-the-air(OTA)meaning wirelessly and often without the useractually needing to initiate the update.This provides OEMs and other stakeholders withmore control during the vehicle use process,while also setting the foundation for otherconnectivity services that help generate valuable data for OEMs.Sonatus,which is backed by Kia and has partnered with Hyundai,recently unveiled itsSoftware-Defined Component product that allows OEMs and suppliers to monitor,test,and optimize various parts of the car as its being used.The company has raised$110Macross multiple Series A rounds.Automotive cybersecurityAutomotive cybersecurity technology is central to securing the emerging class ofsoftware-defined vehicles.Notably,a number of emerging players such as Israel-basedC2A Security are starting to leverage generative AI to automate security controls andprioritize responses to vulnerabilities.C2A is already partnering with Tier 1 suppliers and vendors,deploying tools to secureconnected vehicle software and EV ecosystems including charging stations as can begleaned using the CB Insights Business Relationship Insights tool to analyze itspartnerships.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|11Fleet maintenance platformsFleet maintenance platforms,which help fleet managers track and optimize their fleetsin real time,are also offering solutions for OEMs,as the vehicle diagnostics data theycapture can help OEMs develop more targeted products and services.Companies in the space such as Compredict and CerebrumX are tracking everythingfrom EV battery health to tire and brake wear to engine issues,ultimately generatingvaluable insights for OEMs on vehicle health and performance.Vehicle diagnostics are becoming more relevant for OEMs as they focus on new vehicleprototypes and prioritize sustainability.AftermarketChatbots and computer vision-led inspection solutions are driving efficiencies invehicle repairAuto dealers and repair shops are facing a number of headwinds,from downwardpressure on vehicle prices to a shortage of skilled technicians.In response,startups aredeveloping solutions that automate tasks across the entire auto servicing process,fromautomated vehicle inspection to digital repair to AI chatbots.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|12Automotive aftermarket copilotsOne area that has gained investor interest in recent months is genAI-powered chatbotsand copilots for automotive service desks.Companies in the space raised a collective$118M across 3 deals in 2023,hitting a new high.Companies such as Impel and Numa are designing chatbots specifically for autodealership service centers.These bots will allow dealers to engage with morecustomers and improve the customer experience for vehicle maintenance.Numa claims that integrating its chatbot can expedite customer approvals on repairorders by 5x and boost customer satisfaction scores by 16%,as highlighted by CBIInstant Insights on its partnership with dealership software provider CDK Global.Automated vehicle inspectionAutomated vehicle inspection,which leverages computer vision to detect issues thatmay be missed by the human eye,helps auto repair shops reduce errors while alsomitigating the current labor shortage.The tech has implications not just for autodealerships but also for insurance companies handling claims.Mid-stage startup Ravin AI,for one,is developing mobile apps that can help consumers,auto retailers,and fleet operators more effectively and affordably assess damage.Digital vehicle maintenance&repairAs vehicles grow increasingly connected and autonomous,maintenance and repair willalso need to cover vehicle software and sensors.How AI is reshaping the auto industry|13As a result,a number of companies are leveraging the power of AI,IoT,and robotics tosupport more complex vehicles with solutions such as sensor calibration and digitalprogramming.For example,Kinetic Automation is building technology to automate andsupport advanced driver assistance system(ADAS)calibrations.These technologies will become more important as vehicles with increasingly complexcapabilities need repairs.Looking aheadThough the auto industry and the industrial sector more broadly has historicallybeen slower to adopt new technology,current advances in AI are fueling a new set ofsolutions that are quick to adopt and fast to have an impact.Startups leveraging the power of generative AI will see sustained investor interest andindustry adoption,and automakers should explore ways to automate functions acrossthe value chain with chatbots and AI-led data analytics tools.As AI grows more sophisticated,it will also help to reduce the costs of morecapital-intensive solutions,such as humanoid robots,microfactories,and automatedvehicle inspection systems,suggesting that these technologies will offer stronger returnon investment in the years to come.Tech startups across the auto value chainValue chainMarketCompanyMosaicLatestFundingRoundLatestFundingDateLatestFundingAmountCountryR&D3D printingQuantica650Series AApril 2023$15.3MGermanyR&D3D printing1000 Kelvin500SeedNovember2023$3.0MGermanyR&D3D printingAim3D270Seed VC-IIJuly 2023GermanyHow AI is reshaping the auto industry|14R&D3D printingAMAREATechnology320SeedNovember2023GermanyR&DGenerativedesignMonolith600Incubator/AcceleratorJuly 2022UnitedKingdomR&DGenerativedesignDiabatix460BelgiumR&DQuantumcomputing forchemical&materialsimulationBosonQ Psi510Incubator/Accelerator-IVJune 2023IndiaR&DQuantumcomputing forchemical&materialsimulationQC Ware590Grant-IIIApril 2022$1.5MUnitedStatesR&DQuantumcomputing forchemical&materialsimulationTerraQuantum690Series BFebruary2023SwitzerlandR&DQuantumcomputing forchemical&materialsimulationOTILumionics610Series BOctober2022$55.0MCanadaProduction&assemblyDiscretemanufacturinganalyticsTulip680Series CAugust2021$100.0MUnitedStatesProduction&assemblyDiscretemanufacturinganalyticsCognite730Series BMay 2021$150.0MNorwayProduction&assemblyDiscretemanufacturinganalyticsMakinaRocks640Series BDecember2022$12.7MSouth KoreaHow AI is reshaping the auto industry|15Production&assemblyDiscretemanufacturinganalyticsBraincube730Series BNovember2023$91.2MFranceProduction&assemblyIndustrialhumanoidrobotsFigure900Series BFebruary2024$675.0MUnitedStatesProduction&assemblyIndustrialhumanoidrobots1X880Series BJanuary2024$100.0MNorwayProduction&assemblyIndustrialhumanoidrobotsApptronik700CorporateMinorityFebruary2023UnitedStatesProduction&assemblyIndustrialhumanoidrobotsAgilityRobotics800UnattributedAugust2023$0.6MUnitedStatesProduction&assemblyManufacturingAI copilotsRetrocausal640Seed VC-IINovember2023$5.3MUnitedStatesProduction&assemblyManufacturingAI copilotsInvisible AI470Series ASeptember2022$15.0MUnitedStatesProduction&assemblyManufacturingAI copilotsSpread540Series AMay 2023$16.7MGermanyProduction&assemblyMicrofactoriesSAEKIRobotics570Seed VCAugust2023$2.3MSwitzerlandProduction&assemblyMicrofactoriesMolg530SeedFebruary2022$0.1MUnitedStatesSales&distributionAutomotivedigitalengagementplatformsOrbee710Series ASeptember2023$10.3MUnitedStatesSales&distributionAutomotivedigitalengagementplatformsImpel690Growth EquityJanuary2023$104.0MUnitedStatesHow AI is reshaping the auto industry|16Sales&distributionAutomotivedigitalengagementplatformsFullpath660Series CNovember2022$40.0MUnitedStatesSales&distributionElectric vehiclefinancingplatformsTenet800DebtNovember2023$20.0MUnitedStatesSales&distributionElectric vehiclefinancingplatformsEV Life520Pre-SeedOctober2023UnitedStatesSales&distributionElectric vehiclefinancingplatformsSpring FreeEV640Series A-IIJanuary2024$4.6MUnitedStatesVehicle useAutomotivecybersecurityC2A Security640Series A-IIIJune 2023$1.3MIsraelVehicle useAutomotivecybersecurityUpstream750Incubator/Accelerator-IIMay 2023IsraelVehicle useAutomotivecybersecurityPrivacy4Cars520Series A-IIDecember2022UnitedStatesVehicle useFleetmaintenanceplatformsCerebrumX570CorporateMinority-IIJune 2023UnitedStatesVehicle useFleetmaintenanceplatformsCompredict380Incubator/Accelerator-VJune 2023GermanyVehicle useFleetmaintenanceplatformsViaduct490CorporateMinorityJanuary2024UnitedStatesVehicle useSoftware-defined vehicle(SDV)platformsSonatus710Series A-IIISeptember2023UnitedStatesHow AI is reshaping the auto industry|17Vehicle useSoftware-defined vehicle(SDV)platformssibros680UnattributedVCNovember2022UnitedStatesVehicle useSoftware-defined vehicle(SDV)platformsVeecle540Seed VCNovember2023$2.9MGermanyVehicle useSoftware-defined vehicle(SDV)platformsAurora Labs660Series CJuly 2022$63.0MIsraelAftermarketAutomotiveaftermarketchatbotsOrbee710Series ASeptember2023$10.3MUnitedStatesAftermarketAutomotiveaftermarketchatbotsImpel690Growth EquityJanuary2023$104.0MUnitedStatesAftermarketAutomotiveaftermarketchatbotsNuma310Incubator/AcceleratorJanuary2020UnitedStatesAftermarketAutomotiveaftermarketchatbotsSTELLA640ConvertibleNoteMay 2023$4.0MUnitedStatesAftermarketAutomatedvehicleinspectionClick-Ins620Series AMarch2023$7.5MIsraelAftermarketAutomatedvehicleinspectionLanding AI650CorporateMinority-IINovember2023UnitedStatesAftermarketAutomatedvehicleinspectionRavin AI720Series EJuly 2023$65.0MUnitedKingdomHow AI is reshaping the auto industry|18AftermarketDigital vehiclemaintenance&repairKineticAutomation690Series AOctober2023$10.0MUnitedStatesAftermarketDigital vehiclemaintenance&repairRevv530Seed VC-IIMarch2023$2.1MUnitedStatesHow AI is reshaping the auto industry|19

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张小可FALENDRA KUMARVisiting Fellow ProgramAnalysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation ofCAREC and Eurasian Countries Along theRoutes in Regional Value ChainsFEBRUARY 2024 Visiting Fellow Program Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains by Dr.Falendra Kumar Project Supervisor:Dr.Asif Razzaq February 2024 CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.ii Disclaimer Under the Visiting Fellow Program,the CAREC Institute issued research grants in 2023 to support scholars and researchers to produce targeted knowledge products that would add to the body of knowledge on regional cooperation in the CAREC region.Scholars were encouraged to conduct research on CAREC integration topics and carry out comparative analyses between(sub)regions to obtain insights for promoting and deepening regional integration among CAREC member countries particularly,as anticipated in the CAREC 2030 strategy and stated operational priorities.The paper is written by Dr.Falendra Kumar.Dr.Asif Razzaq,Senior Research Specialist of the CAREC Institute,advised on this research,and Ms.Emma Tong,Research Specialist of the CAREC Institute,provided grant administration support and coordination throughout the process.The CAREC Institutes Publication Board reviewed the paper and provided comments for its further improvement.The research is funded through the technical and financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank(ADB)under TA-6694 REG:Supporting the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Institute-International Expert(CAREC Institute Visiting Fellow-Batch 3).The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the CAREC Institute,its funding entities,or its Governing Council.The CAREC Institute does not guarantee accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of its use.The terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with the CAREC Institutes official terms.The CAREC Institute accepts no liability or responsibility for any partys use of this paper or for the consequences of any partys reliance on the information or data provided herein.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area,or by using country names in the paper,the author did not intend to make any judgment as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.Boundaries,colors,denominations,or any other information shown on maps do not imply any judgment on the legal status of any territory,or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries,colors,denominations,or information.This paper is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.By using the content of this paper,you agree to be bound by the terms of this license.This CC license does not apply to other copyright materials in this paper.If the material is attributed to another source,please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.The CAREC Institute cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation(CAREC)Institute 21st Floor,Commercial Building Block 8,Vanke Metropolitan,No.66 Longteng Road,Shuimogou District,Urumqi,Xinjiang,the PRC,830028 f: 86- L inkedIn:carec-institute km carecinstitute.o rg ww w.carecinstitute.o rg CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.iii Abstract This study analyzes the comparative efficiency of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation(CAREC)transport corridors and their impact on the participation of the CAREC and Eurasian countries along routes in regional value chains(RVCs);it explores the barriers and challenges to participation in RVCs in the CAREC region;and draws policy recommendations to enhance the efficiency of CAREC corridors and bolster the participation of countries along routes in RVCs.Data envelopment analysis(DEA)has been applied to analyze the comparative efficiency of the CAREC corridors during 2010 to 2020.A difference-in-differences method has been integrated into propensity score matching to avoid selection bias to analyze the participation of CAREC corridor economies along routes in RVCs.The study reveals that only Corridor 4 demonstrated efficiency over 2010 to 2020,while Corridors 1 and 5 exhibited consistent performance during 2010 to 2015.However,Corridors 3 and 6 were less efficient than the most efficient Corridor 4.Despite this,Corridors 3 and 6 displayed an increasing return to scale over 2010 to 2020,indicating that a proportionate rise in all inputs led to a greater proportionate increase in output.All the corridors can reorient their transit infrastructure through vigorous reforms and can learn significantly from the existing transit facilitation being carried out in Corridor 4.Empirical results underline the constructive impact of CAREC corridors on the participation in RVCs of countries along designated routes and underscore the multifaceted interplay of factors shaping the participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.The CAREC transport corridor organizations must downsize operational costs to enhance the value of facilities provided by the corridors and realize the necessary valuable progress of functioning corridor efficiency by lowering transport costs and travel time.With lower trade transit costs,the CAREC transport corridors can be transformed into economic corridors to tap the novel trade opportunities that have emerged in the Eurasian countries.This requires CAREC economies to renovate manufacturing methods and acquire suitable export and investment opportunities.Keywords:transport corridors efficiency,regional value chains,CAREC,Eurasian countries,policy implications Table of Contents Abstract.iii Abbreviations.3 1.Introduction.4 1.1.Study rationale.4 1.2.Problem statement.5 2.Methodology.5 2.1.Efficiency measurement of CAREC transport corridors.5 2.1.1.Variables.5 2.1.2.Data sources.6 2.1.3.Methodology to estimate efficiency.7 2.2.RVC participation measurement.9 2.2.1.Dependent variable and measurement.9 2.2.2.Explanatory variables.9 2.2.3.Control variables.10 2.2.4.Data sources.10 2.2.5.Methodological approach.10 3.Results and discussion.13 3.1.Efficiency measurement of the CAREC transport corridors.13 3.2.Analysis of CAREC Corridor Performance Measurement and Monitoring database.15 3.3.Measurement of CAREC corridor participation in RVCs.17 3.3.1.Descriptive statistics.17 3.3.2.Common support assessment and ROC analysis.18 3.3.3.Balancing test and matching validity assessment.19 3.3.4.Empirical findings on participation in RVCs.20 3.3.5.Impact of various factors on RVC participation.22 3.3.6.Robustness analysis.23 4.Conclusion.23 5.Policy recommendations.24 5.1.Improving the efficiency of CAREC transport corridors.24 5.2.Bolstering the participation in RVCs.25 6.Limitations and future research direction.26 References.27 CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.2 Figures Figure 1:The kernel density graph of the PSM in the treatment group and control group.19 Tables Table 1:Indicators and their definitions.6 Table 2:CAREC corridors and the regions/countries.7 Table 3:Main variables and indicators.10 Table 4:Estimates of efficiency scores across the CAREC transport corridors.13 Table 5:Estimates of return to scale across the CAREC transport corridors.14 Table 6:Descriptive statistics of variables.18 Table 7:Balancing test for propensity score matching.20 Table 8:Test for how well the model fits.20 Table 9:Effect of corridors on the RVC participation of countries along the routes.21 CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.3 Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank ASEAN Association of the Southeast Asian Nations BEC broad economic category CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation COVID COronaVIrus Disease CRS constant return to scale DEA data envelopment analysis DID difference-in-differences DMU decision making unit DRS decreasing return to scale FDI foreign direct investment GDP gross domestic product GFCF gross fixed capital formation GPN global production network GVC global value chain IFS international financial statistics IMAR Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region IMF International Monetary Fund IRS increasing return to scale LR likelihood ratio NTB non-tariff barrier PRC Peoples Republic of China OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development PSM propensity score matching ROC receiver operating characteristic RPN regional production network RVC regional value chain SE scale efficiency TEU 20 ft equivalent unit UN United Nations COMTRADE commodity trade US United States VRS variable return to scale XUAR Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.4 1.Introduction Transport corridor efficiency is essential to guarantee the sustainable transition to market-oriented Central Asia Regional Cooperation(CAREC)economies via better regional connectivity.The analysis of transport corridors helps determine the potential efficiency and enhance system productivity to increase economic growth.Efficiency estimation improves the skills to determine the factors triggering transport corridor inefficiency and ways to enhance efficiency over the period.Efficient transport and trade connectivity can boost economic growth in the CAREC region through greater integration to regional and international production networks,which in turn generate novel economic opportunities,foster greater economic diversification,reduce transport costs and transit time,and integrate domestic and regional manufacturing centers and boost regional trade(Kalyuzhnova and Holzhacker,2021).Efficient CAREC transport corridors can foster greater trade flows and significantly improve economic affluence along the routes.The improved efficiency of CAREC transport corridors can bolster regional value chain(RVC)integration to regional and international markets.The increased efficiency of CAREC transport corridors can make RVCs highly resilient to external shocks owing to expanded trade linkages along the routes.However,there are immense disparities in the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors across the regional economies.To improve the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors,regional economies need to construct efficient road and rail connectivity as well as build quality flight connectivity.In addition,intraregional connectivity routes need to link the CAREC countries to seaports.The linkage of CAREC transport corridors via the Peoples Republic of China(PRC)and Pakistan can give strong connectivity to seaports.Despite the significant economic growth and trade performance displayed by landlocked countries,the integration of firms into RVCs remained feeble,which calls for efficient and inclusive transport corridorsto address transport and trade barriers.The efficiency of transport corridors and constraints at border clearance points should therefore be addressed urgently to bolster the RVC integration of countries along routes and develop compatible trade facilitation and soft infrastructure.The improved efficiency of transport corridors can certainly enhance RVC integration and trade flows,thereby boosting economic growth in the CAREC countries.Therefore,it is imperative to analyze the performance efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors to remain competitive and integrate into RVCs and regional and global markets and to offer policy recommendations to enhance the gains from RVC integration and trade flows along the CAREC transport corridor routes.1.1.Study rationale In the CAREC region,little is written about transport corridor efficiency and RVC integration along the corridor routes.Sustainable economic development,improved trade flows,and robust RVC integration in landlocked CAREC countries require smoother transit via country corridor routes without constraint.However,the functioning of CAREC transit routes faces numerous practical limitations,which bring higher transportation costs and extended transit times,trigger inefficiencies among firms,and hamper supply chains.Quantitative research on the measurement of efficiency of transport corridors in CAREC economies is virtually absent,which requires a detailed analysis.The development of the CAREC transport corridors has attracted increasing attention for stronger regional cooperation and shared gains to participating countries along the routes.However,extant studies on evaluating the comparative efficiency of CAREC transport corridors and the impact of CAREC corridors on RVC participation of countries along the routes are non-existent.Therefore,this study is a modest attempt to analyze the corridor efficiency and impact on RVC participation.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.5 1.2.Problem statement The development of the CAREC corridors is centered on regional cooperation,dialog,participation,and mutual gains to participating economies along the routes to boost local economic activities and foster their participation in RVCs.However,the CAREC transport corridors face numerous barriers in leveraging trade and the participation of the CAREC economies in RVCs along the routes,which need to improve the efficiency of the transport corridors in regional economies.There are scant studies on the measurement of the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors focusing on transport connectivity,trade facilitation,border clearance,transit collaboration,and transit operations in transit economies and RVC integration in countries along the routes.Therefore,this study analyzes the comparative efficiencies of the CAREC transport corridors to find the causes of CAREC transport corridor inefficiency,to establish the best performing CAREC transport corridor,and to investigate the impact of the CAREC corridors on the participation of the countries in RVCs along the routes.This study adds to extant literature from the perspective of both researchers and policymakers.2.Methodology 2.1.Efficiency measurement of CAREC transport corridors The administration of the CAREC transport corridors necessitates the application of suitable decision-making techniques to offer sufficient assistance for policy options.This study has applied a highly capable decision-making technique called data envelopment analysis(DEA)to analyze the performance efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors.2.1.1.Variables Landlocked countries have right of entry to and from the sea(UN-OHRLLS,2013)including open transit via bordering nations through all transport modes,devoid of little constraint(Hummels and Schaur,2013).Virtually,this basic right faced several intricacies in practice and consequently increased transport costs and transit delays(Lowe,1990)and hampered RVC integration(World Bank,2013).Djankov,Caroline,and Cong(2010)presented a lucid analysis of transport systems in landlocked developing countries and their reliance on exports.Greater efficiency of transport corridors requires improved trade transit infrastructure and robust trade facilitation strategy,which can significantly impact transportation and logistics costs and facilitate a smoother transit at border clearance points.Therefore,the enhancement and upkeep of trade transit infrastructure facilities are essential for highly efficient transport corridors and the cooperative use of transit facilities(Djankov,Caroline,and Cong,2010).However,scant knowledge exists on the assessment of the CAREC transport corridor efficiency specifically focusing on road transport,border clearance procedures,trade facilitation,and transit practices.The empirical analysis of the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors is virtually absent,which this study intends to accomplish through the application of DEA.In this study,the selection of variables is based on Djankov,Caroline,and Cong(2010)and used with slight alterations in confirmation to Fanou and Wang(2018)through inclusion of the total documents required for export via road transport.In landlocked economies,the outdated and inept customs practices,deficient infrastructure,and lack of reliable transit facilities frequently entail larger transport and trade costs and time delays at border-crossing points.Higher transit cost and time delays influence export and obstruct the integration of domestic firms with RVCs.The selected input and output variables include certification prerequisites,customs practices,and administration procedures including time and road transport cost incurred for export along the routes.This study CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.6 analyzes CAREC corridor efficiency for the period 2010 to 2020,restricted to road transport and export only.The DEA efficiency analysis employs three inputs and one output.Table 1 shows that chosen inputs are transaction cost(measured in USD per TEU),transit time(measured in days),and number of documents to export via transportation.1 The selected output is volume of exports2 handled by each decision-making unit(DMU),measured in TEUs.Table 1:Indicators and their definitions Indicator Definition Documents to export Quantity of official certificates needed by exporters to collect and present.Therefore,this indicates official difficulties faced by exporters.Increased document requirements simply imply that exporters spend larger amounts of time and money engaging in trade pursuits.Days to export Number of days needed to fulfil complete official processes linked to export and border procedures and delivering consignment.Smaller official processes point to more ease of export.Cost to export Money cost to export is expressed in USD charged for a 20 foot vessel.Source:Author compilation 2.1.2.Data sources Efficiency calculations have been conducted for six CAREC corridors,called DMUs in DEA,spanning 2010 to 2020 as shown in Table 2.The input data was sourced from the World Bank Business Database,while output data originated from the UN Comtrade database.The Doing Business framework evaluates the time and cost linked to the export and import of standardized goods via transportation.Regarding exports,official procedures encompass everything from packing goods to their exit from the corridor,including border clearance procedures.Transport cost and travel time have not been included.Additionally,essential certificates needed for cross-border exports are considered.1This analysis focuses exclusively on road transport,the primary mode of transportation in the context of CAREC countries.In addition,the data for transaction cost,transit time,and so on by rail and other transportation modes is largely unavailable for most of these countries.2In this paper,the focus is on examining export efficiency only owing to the unavailability of essential input variables required for conducting an import efficiency analysis.The specific input variables selected from the World Bank Business Database for export efficiency analysis unfortunately are not available for import analysis,especially across all CAREC countries.Hence,the analysis is limited to examining export efficiency only.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.7 Table 2:CAREC corridors and the regions/countries Corridor Countries 1 EuropeEast Asia(Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,and XUAR)2 MediterraneanEast Asia(Afghanistan,Azerbaijan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,and XUAR)3 Russian FederationMiddle East and South Asia(Georgia,Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan)4 Russian FederationEast Asia(IMAR,Mongolia,and XUAR)5 East AsiaMiddle East and South Asia(Afghanistan,Kyrgyz Republic,Pakistan,Tajikistan,and XUAR)6 EuropeMiddle East and South Asia(Afghanistan,Kazakhstan,Pakistan,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan)Note:*IMAR:Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region;XUAR=Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.Both are regions of the Peoples Republic of China.Source:Author compilation 2.1.3.Methodology to estimate efficiency DEA is a linear programming technique that applies several inputs and outputs to analyze the comparative efficiency of identical DMUs.DEA is applied to estimate efficiency in terms of the proportion of weighted aggregate of outputs to the weighted aggregate of inputs.Absolute efficiency is difficult to capture;this is estimated on assumed fact.Performance efficiency is calculated by linking DMUs to a situation with very similar input and output form.Using the input and output variables,DEA gives an integrated efficiency performance for each DMU,helping to identify efficient DMU and inefficient DMU.Inputs are the resources applied by DMU and outputs are the performance displayed by DMU.The determination of the optimal performing CAREC corridor(specifically ranking as the most effective corridor)is accomplished using the modified DEA technique(Andersen and Petersen,1993),which facilitates the ranking of efficient CAREC corridors by evaluating efficiency scores,and is expressed mathematically as follows:(,)=1=1=1,2.,(1)Subject to:=1=1 1,=1,2.,(2)0,=1,2.,(3)0,=1,2.,(4)Where:hk=relative efficiency of k-th DMU;yrj=quantity of output r generated by DMU j;xij=quantity of input i utilized by DMU j;n=number of DMUs;m=number of inputs;s=number of outputs;CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.8 ur=weight assigned to output r;and vi=weight assigned to input i.Equation(1)is solved iteratively n times to gauge the relative efficiency of each DMU.Non-negative constraints in equation(3)and equation(4)are necessary to ensure that fractional equation(2)attains a value than 0.Consequently,all input and output weights are assumed to be non-zero.Optimization of k-th DMUs efficiency is achieved through resolution of equation(1)and equation(2),resulting in values of k ranges from 0 to 1 and hk=1 signifies k-th DMUs efficiency in comparison to others,while values 1 indicate inefficiency.When hk tends towards 1,it implies a higher level of efficiency.An alternative approach to address this issue involves utilizing a fractional linear programming model,called a CCR ratio model,and converting it into a linear programming model.The mathematical representation of this DEA model is as follows:(,)=1=1,2.,(5)Subject to:=1=1 (6)=1=1 0,=1,2,.(7)0,=1,2.,(8)Where:yrj=quantity of output r generated by DMU j;xij=quantity of input i to unit j;hk=relative efficiency of unit k;n=number of DMUs under investigation;m=number of inputs;s=number of outputs;r=weight coefficient of output r;vi =weight coefficient of input i.The k-th DMUs relative efficiency is determined by hk in objective function.If hk=1,DMU k is relatively efficient,while a value|t|V(T)/V(C)Treated Control lRVCs U 3.0599 3.031 6.5 0.79 0.432 1.54*M 3.0599 2.985 16.8-158.7 2.6 0.01 1.92*lresource U 2.5043 2.7118-19 -2.29 0.023 1.74*M 2.5043 2.4111 8.5 55.1 1.25 0.21 1.64*lurban U 4.0544 3.9835 19 2.37 0.018 0.97 M 4.0544 4.0758-5.7 69.9-0.96 0.337 1.72*lmarket U 0.51965 0.08371 26.6 3.36 0.001 0.88 M 0.51965 0.45816 3.8 85.9 0.57 0.567 0.98 lcapital U 3.2413 3.1574 25.3 3.3 0.001 0.54*M 3.2413 3.2395 0.5 97.8 0.09 0.925 0.92 lpublic U 2.7631 2.8227-19.4 -2.41 0.016 1.06 M 2.7631 2.7546 2.8 85.7 0.4 0.69 0.94 lopen U 1.0413 0.65003 28.3 3.51 0 1.12 M 1.0413 0.78409 18.6 34.3 2.72 0.007 1.05 Note:*If the variance ratio falls outside 0.83;1.21 for U and 0.83;1.21 for M Source:Author estimates Table 8:Test for how well the model fits Sample Ps R2 LR chi2 pchi2 MeanBias MedBias B R Unmatched 0.055 48.35 0 20.6 19.4 56.8*0.96 Matched 0.014 16.77 0.019 8.1 5.7 27.6*0.89 Note:LR=likelihood ratio Source:Author estimates In culmination,the comprehensive findings from the balancing test consistently affirm the efficacy of the matching process.The discernible reduction in biases,alignment of t-values,and decreased values of LR and Ps R2 collectively underscore the validity and reliability of the matching procedure shown in Table 8.This robust balancing lends further confidence to subsequent analyses,fostering more accurate and insightful outcomes.3.3.4.Empirical findings on participation in RVCs Using equation(3),the analysis provides estimates of the impact of the CAREC corridors on participation in RVCs of countries along the routes.The regression analysis is conducted with the application of cluster-robust standard errors.The comprehensive results of this analysis are displayed in Table 9,alongside estimation outcomes for unmatched data for the purposes of comparison.Columns(1)and(2)within Table 9 delineate outcomes for unmatched data estimation,while the subsequent columns provide regression results for matched data.Specifically,columns(1)and(3)outline baseline outcomes,omitting any control variables,while columns(2)and(4)introduce primary explanatory variables into models presented in columns(1)and(3)respectively.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.21 Table 9:Effect of corridors on the RVC participation of countries along the routes Variable DID DID-PSM (1)(2)(3)(4)Treated 0.0015*0.0345*0.0115*0.052*(1.03)(1.65)(2.01)(2.59)Time-0.0745-0.0369-0.0641*-0.054*(-1.26)(-0.53)(-1.82)(-1.59)treated X time 0.0612 0.0779 0.0351*0.0221*(0.83)(1.08)(1.02)(1.14)lopen 0.025*0.0208*(1.94)(2.13)lpublic 0.017 0.0208 (0.28)(0.25)lcapital 0.0698*0.108*(1.3)(2.47)lmarket 0.00136*0.0211*(0.11)(1.06)lurban 0.0193*0.129*(1.27)(2.21)lresource-0.0384*-0.0739*(-2.28)(-2.88)_cons 3.068*2.792*3.069*2.274*(73.47)(7.45)(55.36)(3.99)N 681 681 308 308 R2 0.25 0.18 0.29 0.31 Note:t statistics in parentheses*p0.01,*p0.05,*p0.001 Bootstrapping in DID,and propensity score weights in DID-PSM Source:Author estimates The coefficient attributed to treatedi,t timei,t captures the impact of the CAREC corridors on the participation in RVCs of countries along specified routes.The results obtained solely through DID approach reveal that coefficients associated with interaction terms lack statistical significance.However,a noteworthy shift occurs when the DID approach is coupled with the PSM method.This integration yields interaction term coefficients that are not only positive but also statistically significant.This transformation underscores the importance of employing the PSM method in conjunction with the DID method,accentuating the need for methodological synergy.The contrasts between results before and after matching underscore the necessity of applying the PSM method as a precursor to the DID method.These outcomes distinctly portray that the introduction of the CAREC corridors has indeed led to an enhancement of participation in RVCs of countries along the routes.A noteworthy observation arises when comparing column(3)with column(4),upon incorporating control variables into regression,the effect of the CAREC corridors on the participation of the CAREC corridors countries in RVCs remains positively significant at a level of 10 percent.However,the significance level has diminished,accompanied by a considerable reduction in coefficient by 0.0130.This decline may potentially be attributed to a mediating role played by one or more control variables,influencing the overall effect.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.22 In summary,the empirical results underline the constructive impact of the CAREC corridors on the participation in RVCs of countries along the designated routes.The integration of the PSM method with the DID approach enhances the statistical significance of findings,underscoring the intricate relationship between policy,methodological rigor,and influential factors.The incorporation of the control variables further enriches the understanding of the CAREC corridors influence,shedding light on potential mediating mechanisms within this complex context.3.3.5.Impact of various factors on RVC participation Several factors,including market size,economic openness,material capital,and urbanization,distinctly exhibit a significantly positive influence on the participation of countries within the CAREC corridors in RVCs.The findings illuminate intriguing dynamics associated with these elements.The results underscore the initial point that a growth in market size within the CAREC corridor countries leads to a discernible amplification in forward linkages compared to a parallel increase in backward linkages.This asymmetry implies that a larger market size prompts a stronger surge in demand for intermediate goods compared to their supply.Additionally,economic liberalization contributes to capital inflows,subsequently bolstering the trade volume of intermediate goods.It is notable that these capital inflows are likely allocated toward vital areas such as infrastructure development and the exploration of natural resources.Remarkably,urbanization emerges as another factor with a significantly positive impact on the participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.This relationship can be attributed to the substantial role of urbanization as a conduit through which these countries participate in RVCs.The interconnectedness between urbanization and participation is a compelling narrative within this context.However,the presence of abundant natural resources brings about a notable divergence.While it would be anticipated that such resources could stimulate participation,the findings reveal a highly significant negative influence on RVC participation for countries along the CAREC corridor routes.This phenomenon suggests that heavy reliance on natural resource development may hinder active engagement in RVCs,possibly owing to resource-driven economic specialization that diverges from the RVC framework.Interestingly,under the PSM-DID analysis,the significance of this negative impact decreases,implying that countries endowed with natural resources may find participation in the CAREC corridors more appealing.Conversely,the variable of public services does not exhibit significant influence even within the DID-PSM framework.This suggests that,within this analysis,public services do not significantly contribute to the participation in RVCs of countries along the CAREC corridor routes.In conclusion,the empirical results underscore a multifaceted interplay of factors shaping the participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.While certain variables such as market size,economic openness,material capital,and urbanization demonstrate positive influences,dynamics surrounding natural resources and public services reveal intricate nuances that warrant deeper exploration.This comprehensive understanding enriches the insights into the complex relationship between these variables and RVC participation,ultimately contributing to more informed policy considerations.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.23 3.3.6.Robustness analysis Drawing from an extensive panel dataset spanning from 1990 to 2020,encompassing 22 countries within the CAREC corridors,this study effectively establishes the capacity of the CAREC corridors to amplify the participation of these countries in RVCs.This assertion is rooted in empirical evidence gleaned from this temporal and geographic scope.To fortify the dependability of research outcomes,this study embarks on a robustness test by transitioning from the standard matching method to the caliper matching approach.This method shares a conceptual affinity with the previously employed one-to-three matching technique.The rigorous calibration of this new approach unfolds as follows:Initially,the caliper matching method is executed to harmonize samples,adhering to a stringent set of criteria.Subsequently,DID estimation is conducted using equation(4),based on outcomes of this calibrated matching procedure.It is noteworthy that the regression results derived from this calibrated approach correspond harmoniously with findings obtained from the preceding methodology.However,for the sake of brevity,these congruent outcomes are not expounded upon within this context.By subjecting the research to this robustness test,the study strengthens the trustworthiness of the conclusions,validating the robustness of the impact of the CAREC corridors on the augmented participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.This meticulous examination underscores the resilience of findings of this study across methodological variations,further reinforcing the significance of the CAREC corridor influence in shaping these economic interactions.4.Conclusion This study analyzed the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors connecting transit ports along routes over 2010 to 2020.Analysis of the performance efficiency draws the following conclusions.Extant research on the application of DEA to estimate the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors is non-existent.Therefore,this study has attempted to fill this knowledge gap.The application of DEA to measure transport corridor efficiency helps to rank efficient corridors with a target to offer policy options to improve ineffective transport corridors.The study also establishes the origins of inefficiencies such as larger transportation costs/transaction costs/travel time and offers policy recommendations for enhancing the efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors.The study draws significant policy implications to strengthen and foster the performance efficiencies of the CAREC transport corridors for policymakers and regional transport institutions working to develop and implement transport corridor strategies.This study of the participation of countries in RVCs contributes to knowledge about the significance of the CAREC corridors in enhancing the participation of CAREC corridor countries in RVCs.Analysis reveals the significance of the development of the CAREC corridors and draws the following implications.This is significant to encourage the countries to vigorously contribute to the development of the CAREC corridors and dynamically integrate into RVCs drawing on their own profuse resources.The CAREC corridor countries along the routes should nurture the penetrable and management capability on infrastructure investment to guarantee that their investments will successfully foster RVC participation.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.24 5.Policy recommendations 5.1.Improving the efficiency of CAREC transport corridors The efficient CAREC transport corridors have stronger execution of both the soft infrastructure and hard infrastructure than the others.The lagging CAREC transport corridors should initiate holistic reforms of their transportation systems for better performance efficiency.Attaining higher performance and better efficiency of the CAREC transport corridors and transit infrastructures entails tackling not only the physical barriers to trade,but also the administrative barriers.Border-clearance procedures,and the required customs and official documents should be simple,translucent,and harmonized.Novel digital technologies,trade facilitation,and modern customs clearance processes can be instituted with moderate investment to bolster soft infrastructure,which has immense potential to bestow a considerable reduction in transit transport costs and trade transit times.The collaborative engagement in institutional restructuring is needed to remove inefficient trade transit and customs processes for smoother border clearance.Capacity building of the relevant functionaries in novel customs and legal practices,and shared digital skills are imperative.In this context,regional cooperation in evolving a compatible transportation system for shared benefits cannot be overemphasized.The following corridor-wise recommendations should be implemented to improve the efficiency of the comparatively inefficient CAREC corridors.Corridor 1:The efficiency of customs clearance should be improved to reduce traffic disruption and delays at transit points caused by the physical verification of trucks,which requires a truck scanner system to enable smooth checking.The road cargo costs along the high-density UrumqiAlmaty route should be reduced to match the low road cargo charges at Corridor 4 along the PRCXUAR route.Containerization in multimodal transport should be implemented to improve operational efficiency,which entails regulatory reforms.The viability of e-carriage of goods by road(e-CMR)should be explored and implemented,which requires digitalization and compatible laws and regulations.Both hard and soft infrastructure need to be developed and strengthened,which requires the capacity building of both technical and logistics manpower.Corridor 2:Ambiguous transit practices along Corridor 2 require transparent consignment rules and fees through an official arrangement.The hazard of illegal cross-border trade from Afghanistan causes delays at customs clearance,which should be tackled by instituting the scheme of authorized economic operator(AEO)to shorten time at transit points.Green lanes should be developed to enable the trucks of the firms under AEO to transit border points without delay.Cargos should be given precedence over passenger vehicles to lower transit time at border transit points.High cargo traffic transit points should be made operational without any halt in functioning to lower the transit time at border clearance points.Corridor 3:The common customs management along the border clearance point should be established to reduce delays incurred by stopping at a neutral region.Alternative shorter routes with improved hard and soft infrastructures should be developed from Georgia to Tajikistan via Turkmenistan,instead of Kazakhstan,to achieve cost-efficiency and lower time at transit clearance.Georgia should develop novel transit agreements focusing on lower transit charges with Tajikistan to achieve a cost-efficient transit as the current transit fee is substantially higher compared to that of a consignment from the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan at similar transit points.The Kyrgyz Republic needs substantial investment in cold chain development for steady exports of agricultural and horticultural products during all seasons and efficient transportation.Uzbekistan has magnetized substantial transit cargos,which caused delays at border-crossing points.Therefore,reducing time at CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.25 border-crossing points requires digital scanners to be set up for accelerated scrutiny of consignments,an increase in the number of entrance roads to border-crossing points,and the speedy passing of consignment-designated green lanes.Corridor 4:The customs clearance procedures along the MongoliaPRC transit points should be improved to minimize delays for perishable items.Corridor 5:Pakistan should execute a single window system for Afghanistan cargo to reducethe halt time at seaports.The reciprocal AEO scheme should be implemented by Pakistan to enhance the efficiency of transit trade with other corridor countries.International road transport(TIR)parks should be established along heavy traffic border-crossing points to lessen delays.Switching to rail transport can lower transport cost and increase the value of agricultural exports.Corridor 6:In Tajikistan,the customs guide for TIR consignments should be substituted by digital technologies such as GPS to lower transit cost significantly.Digital stamping and smart scanners should be implemented to manage the transit of illegal consignments and reduce delays at border transit points.Tajikistan should allocate green lanes and the AEO scheme for Afghanistans agriculture and horticulture consignments to lessen transit time at border-crossings.Turkmenistan should improve the technical and managerial capabilities of officials in modern logistics including supply chains and cold chains across transport modes to lower trade cost.Both hard and soft infrastructures at border-crossing points between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan should be modernized and strengthened to reduce delays.A reciprocal AEO scheme should be implemented between bordering countries.Tajikistan and Uzbekistan need to develop cold chains for the cost-effective mobility of agricultural and horticultural products to enable them to maintain reliable exports.5.2.Bolstering the participation in RVCs There are considerable hurdles to be overcome to increase intraregional trade in the CAREC region and the development of RVCs.Industrial policy should be reoriented to boost industrialization in the CAREC countries and tap the potential of domestic manufacturing for greater intraregional trade flows.Increased domestic manufacturing will generate immense gains for local economies.Industrial policy should leverage a contemporary and prospective specialization which an individual country dominates or can potentially develop.This specialization can guarantee that the economy is cost competitive and/or production competitive in a regional and global context owing to strength of resources,technology,skills,workforce,or commendatory industrial strategies that support manufacturing in specific fields.Recognizing and exploiting this specialization can help economies to build specific practical plans for exports.The CAREC countries can manufacture a broad range of modern products because they have a wide variety of specialized technical knowledge and skills.Greater intricacy in manufacturing generally embraces big value incorporation,which facilitates economies to seize higher manufacturing gains through value chain participation.Moreover,a surge in export products and export diversification can help countries enhance their trade potential with other regional economies.Increased export diversity and greater varieties of manufactured goods also significantly protect firms from distress in certain markets owing to price variations.Besides public investment in the development of industrial infrastructure,private investment including FDI should be considerably magnetized for industrial development.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.26 Regional policy collaboration should be bolstered to accelerate intraregional trade and RVCs by amalgamating relative economic gains among CAREC member countries and increasing expertise in specific components of RVCs for particular goods.Robust trade policy can enhance intraregional trade,bolster RVCs,and generate economic growth and prosperity in the CAREC member countries.Redesigning the rules of origin can bolster regional trade integration hugely by influencing the preference of intermediate goods applied to manufacture goods.Regional economic cooperation can reduce tariffs for greater interregional trade;however,RVC integration entails manufacturing across the CAREC member countries.The non-tariff measures(NTMs)can avoid unfair trade practices;however,NTMs should not be applied as a protection measure,which hampers imports.There is a need to foster homogeneous standards and documentation across the CAREC region for better compliance.NTMs should also be strictly implemented to avoid their application as tariff barriers.Last,but not the least,the CAREC transport corridor organizations must downsize operational costs to enhance the value of facilities provided by the corridors and realize the necessity of functioning corridor efficiency by lowering transport costs and travel time.The bolstering of regional transport and trade infrastructure are essential to boost intraregional trade and RVCs in CAREC member countries.There is a need to simplify and establish complementary customs procedures,apply digital technologies,robust trade facilitation measures through suitable investors to achieve lower transit times and transport costs.In brief,the CAREC economies should renovate manufacturing and acquire suitable export and investment opportunities.New technologies are calling for manufacturing and RVCs to be transformed.In future,value chains are expected to be regional,which entails firms to relocate their manufacturing closer to demand and increasingly espouse digital technologies.Therefore,the capacity building of logistics and trade professionals should be implemented to foster stronger integration of firms into RVCs.6.Limitations and future research direction This study encapsulates the efficiency of the CAREC corridors confined to road transport and export only.In future research,analysis of CAREC corridor efficiency should focus on road and rail transport as well as exports and imports.The effective use of DEA entails adherence to certain stipulations.DEA does not assume a functional form linking inputs and outputs;however,DEA also has certain drawbacks.It offers results that are notably susceptible to estimation error,captures efficiency compared to best performance in a particular instance,and may not be applied to measure performance across different situations.DEA captures the comparative efficiency of a DMU and moves very slowly towards absolute efficiency.In DEA,every efficient DMU is allocated a similar mark(1.00),which helps to avoid subsequent ranking.This study used the adjusted DEA technique suggested by Andersen and Petersen(1993)to rank the best performing corridor with a score of 1.00 and super-efficiency score above 1.00.There are two major limitations in using DID and PSM in this research:this study has used a few country features as key explanatory variables;therefore,DID has not accounted for additional probable factors.Lastly,the different data sources used in this study have some missing values.Economic development in CAREC corridor economies is considerably heterogeneous,which can have a significant impact on RVC participation.Therefore,future research should focus on more variables and derive more robust and rich data.New disruptions such as COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict offer considerable opportunities to the CAREC member countries to participate in RVCs,which need to be explored in future research.Future research can explore how reforms in CAREC transport corridors lower trade transit costs and facilitate transformation of the CAREC transport corridors to economic corridors to tap the novel trade opportunities that have emerged in the Eurasian countries.CAREC Institute.Visiting Fellow Program 2023.Analysis of CAREC Transport Corridors:Efficiency and Impact of the Participation of CAREC and Eurasian Countries Along the Routes in Regional Value Chains.27 References Andersen P&Petersen NC(1993).A procedure 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Research,721279,115.Heckman JJ,Ichimura H,&Todd PE(1997).Matching as an econometric evaluation estimator:Evidence from evaluating a job training programme.The Review of Economic Studies,64(4),605654.Hummels D&Schaur G(2013).Time as a trade barrier.American Economic Review,103(7),29352959.Kalyuzhnova Y&Holzhacker H(2021).Enhancing Connectivity and Trade between Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Countries and the World:Benefits,Risks and Policy Implication.ADBI Working Paper Series,No.1271,Tokyo:Asian Development Bank Institute.Kim IS,Milner HV,Bernauer T,Osgood I,Spilker G,&Tingley D(2019).Firms and global value chains:Identifying firms multidimensional trade preferences.International Studies Quarterly,63(1),153167.Li Q,Tavitiyaman P&Chen D(2020).How belt and road initiative affects tourism demand in China:Evidence from ChinaMongoliaRussia economic corridor.Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality and Tourism,22(5),614624.Lowe AV(1990).United Nations Convention on the Law of 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York:United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries,Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States.World Bank(2013).Trading across borders.In Doing Business 2013:Smarter regulations for small and medium-size enterprises,Washington DC:World Bank,123124.Yeats AJ(1998).Just how big is global production sharing?Policy Research Working Paper Series,Washington,DC:World Bank.contactcarecinstitute.org 21th Floor,Commercial Building Block 8,Vanke Metropolitan,No.66 Longteng Road,Shuimogou District,Urmuqi,Xinjiang,PRC,830028 86.991.8891151 kmcarecinstitute.org|www.carecinstitute.org21th Floor,Commercial Building Block 8,Vanke Metropolitan,No.66 Longteng Road,Shuimogou District,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,the Peoples Republic of China

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