《Whiskystats：2022年度威士忌洞察报告（英文版）（60页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《Whiskystats：2022年度威士忌洞察报告（英文版）（60页）.pdf（60页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、Whats My WhiskyWorth?Insights Report 202201Summary of 2022The stories of the yearPage 9Page 17Page 29Page 35Page 45Page 53022022 Brand RankingsWhats in a name?03NAS whisky overtakes classic age statementsDoes age still matter?Table of contents04A new era for independent bottlersIndependents Day?05In

2、dependent ratings in whiskys ecosystemA measure of quality?06Looking forwardWhats in store for collectors?2Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022From sales of still-maturing casks to multi-bottle collections,the total value of the whisky auction market is estimated at 200 million.For the collector,however

3、,a whisky bottle is often what matters most.In 2022,Whiskystats tracked auction sales of 241,000 individual whisky bottle lots totaling 103 million.This report dives into that data.3Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022From sales of still-maturing casks to multi-bottle collections,the total value of the

4、whisky auction market in 2022 is estimated at 200 million.For the collector,however,a whisky bottle is often what matters most.In 2022,Whiskystats tracked auction sales of 241,000 individual whisky bottle lots totaling 103 million.This report dives into that data.4Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022It

5、was the best of times,it was the worst of times.It was the golden age of rediscovering nostalgia-inducing unicorn bottles.It was the season of seemingly unfathomable whisky auction prices.And,for the whisky collector in 2022,it truly was a tale of two years.Entering 2022,the whisky auction market ha

6、d experienced 24 months of rapid growth.The Whiskystats Whisky Indexwhich tracks the auction value changes of the 500 historically most-traded whiskies each monthgained nearly 80%between January 2020 and March 2022.However,between March and the end of 2022,the whisky auction market was struck by a m

7、arket-wide price reversal:the Whiskystats Whisky Index lost 16.5%of its value in just 9 months,leading to a market loss of 3.3%on the year as a whole.00180190Jan18Jul18Jan19Jul19Jan20Jul20Jan21Jul21Jan22Jul22Dec222022INDEXPOINTSWhiskystats Whisky Index:5-year performance2022s K

8、ey InsightA market price reversal20225Whiskystats|Insights Report 20226Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Whisky collectors are an important part of the whisky community.Without them,many of the whisky gems of yesteryear would not have been preserved,lost forever to the annals of history.Producers and

9、brands work hard to gain collectors affinity for their products,and retailers help individuals build collections.Auction houses,too,depend on relationships with collectors,and investors often look to collectors rationale in determining where to invest.And what does the whisky collector want?Perhaps

10、a comparatively common release that will complete a set.Or a long pined-for vintage.Or that once-in-a-lifetime bottle.No matter what steers collectorsand buyers of all stripesto whisky auctions,tens of thousands of whisky bottles are purchased at the sound of the auction hammer every month.A whisky

11、collection is typically the result of one persons passion,intentional or not.Indeed,many notable whisky collections began when enthusiasts simply bought more than they could reasonably drink!Collecting whisky7Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022A brands story.A whiskys age.A critics rating.The vintage y

12、ear.An almost unexplainable emotional connection.For the collectorand for the producer,retailer,or investorwhiskys value derives from a host of factors.Understanding whiskys value at auctionwhether one specific bottle or an entire collectionis crucial for a whisky collector looking to refine or expa

13、nd a collection.Collectors use the data on Whiskystats to make considered choices about whether and when to buy,sell,insureor simply enjoytheir next bottle of whisky.And,whether the collection began as a considered investment,or just grew too large for a cabinet,rising auction market prices can temp

14、t collectors to ponder the question,Whats my whisky worth?Understanding auction value8Whiskystats|Insights Report 202201Summary of 2022The stories of the year9Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022In 2022 Whiskystats analyzed 241,000 sales of individual bottle lots totaling more than 103 million in hammer

15、 prices.This data is the most complete and representative sample of the estimated 200 million spent on whisky at auction,as it includes rare and luxury releases as well as more commonly available bottles.This report focuses on single-bottle auction lots rather than unbottled,mixed-,or multiple-bottl

16、e lots.Each bottle Whiskystats tracks is matched according to its Whiskybase ID,a unique identifying number in the worlds largest whisky database.Whiskystats data ranges back to 2012.Since that time,the number of single whisky bottle lots sold at auction has increased steadily,with the COVID year of

17、 2020 the lone exception,and hit an all-time high in 2022.A thriving auction market10Whiskystats|Insights Report 202221.3k36k+68%44k+24%64k+45%96k+49%122k+26%147k+21%189k+28%186k-1%212k+14%241k+14%25k50k75k100k125k150k175k200k225k250k20000212022AUCTION YEARSINGLE BOT

18、TLE LOTSAnnual trading volume3.6m7m+90%10m+49%20m+89%28m+45%39m+36%54m+39%72m+34%67m-7%86m+29%103m+20%10m20m30m40m50m60m70m80m90m100m20000212022AUCTION YEARHAMMER PRICEAnnual trading value2022 in value and volume11Whiskystats|Insights Report 202212Whiskystats|Insight

19、s Report 2022In spite of increased trading volume,the whisky auction market went through an uncommonly volatile year.After reaching record highs,market gains are now far in the rearview mirror.The Whiskystats Whisky Index tracks the auction value changes of the 500 historically most-traded whiskies

20、each month.Following years of gains(see chart on page 05),market growth became exceptionally strong for the two years beginning in January 2020.Then,in early 2022,the rapid growth of whisky auction market values reversed.The market price reversal in 2022 represents a market loss of 16.5%.The downtur

21、n is the first of such significance in Whiskystats auction market data,which ranges back to 2012.Economists typically consider a market to be experiencing recession following two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.Only time will tell if this whisky market price reversal is temporary or

22、 a more persistent trend.A market downturn955120JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022INDEX POINTSWhiskystats Whisky Index:2022 performance13Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022To better see the moments of market shift in a year that started so strongly,it is useful to compare the month-to-

23、month changes in market price for each whisky traded.The percentage of whiskies that declined in month-to-month value increased as 2022 progressed:from 36%in January to 56%in December.Conversely,the percentage of whiskies that gained value month-to-month decreased over the course of the year,from 64

24、%in January to 44%in December.When visualised,we can clearly see the volatile moments in which the market turned.Seeing the market shift35%40%45%50%55%60%65%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022SHARE OF WHISKIESvalue gainvalue lossMonthly share of value gaining and value losing whiskies14Whiskyst

25、ats|Insights Report 2022Whiskystats brand indices track the auction market value changes of a specific whisky brands 100 historically most-traded whiskies each month.For no other brand on the market was the price reversal as evident as it was for the releases from Springbank,a small Campbeltown dist

26、illery with a large collector following.From January 2020 to April 2022,Springbank gained over 120%in brand index value.Springbank even made a stunning,if unsustainable,19.7%jump in the span of just one month.Hazelburn(+120%)and Longrow(+75%),the other whiskies made at the Springbank Distillery,perf

27、ormed similarly well.At its market peak in 2022,Springbanks 10-year-old Local Barley release from 2017(Whiskybase ID WB225083)sold for 1,186.That price did not hold.By years end,a bottle of the same release sold for a buyer price(hammer price plus buyers fees)of 314.In 2022 as a whole,the Springbank

28、 index lost 7%and Hazelburn lost 6.1%.Only Longrow(+1.5%)managed to close the year higher than it began.Springbank skyrocketsand falls back to Earth15Whiskystats|Insights Report 202205006007008009000Jan18Jul18Jan19Jul19Jan20Jul20Jan21Jul21Jan22Jul22Dec222018-2022BUYER PRICEPric

29、e observations of Springbank 10-year-old Local Barley(2017)955555180185Jan21Apr21Jul21Oct21Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Dec222021-2022INDEX POINTSHazelburnLongrowSpringbankSpringbank brands 2-year performance16Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022022022 Brand RankingsWh

30、ats in a name?17Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022For many years,Macallan has been the undisputed king of the whisky auction market.With an astounding market share of 27%of trading value,Macallan accounted for more than one of every four euros spent at whisky auctions in 2022.Despite this outsized mar

31、ket share,the market value of many bottles of Macallan actually declined,with the brand index losing 9.2%over the course of the year.Glendronach was the best performing brand index in 2022,finishing the year up 16.8%.For now,at least on the whisky auction market,there is a new king of sherry-matured

32、 whisky.Sherry-matured royalty18Whiskystats|Insights Report 202290955120125130JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022INDEX POINTSGlendronachGlenfarclasMacallanWhiskystats Whisky IndexSelected brand performanceAmong the best performing brand indices,Glenfarclas is notable for demonstratin

33、g far less auction price volatility than most whiskies.A 3.5%fourth quarter loss notwithstanding,Glenfarclas gained 8.6%in 2022.The Speyside distillery has been one of the least volatile whiskies since Whiskystats started tracking whisky auctions in 2012.Slow and steady19Whiskystats|Insights Report

34、2022Following Glendronach,the top five performing brand indices in 2022 were Brora(+11.6%),the aforementioned Glenfarclas(+8.6%),Glenrothes(+6.0%),and BenRiach(+5.9%).Some of the best performing brands,such as Brora,saw a relatively small number of bottles sold at auction in 2022.However,among the w

35、hisky brands with the highest total number of bottles sold,only Ardbeg(the third-most traded whisky behind Macallan and Springbank),finished the year among the Top 10 in index performance.Ardbeg gained 3.7%in 2022.The best performing brands by index value955120125130JanFebMarAprMayJunJulA

36、ugSepOctNovDec2022INDEX POINTSArdbegBenRiachBroraGlendronachGlenfarclasGlenrothesWhiskystats Whisky IndexSelected brand performance20Whiskystats|Insights Report 20222022 Brand Ranking Brand index change1.Glendronach+16.8%2.Brora+11.6%3.Glenfarclas+8.6%4.Glenrothes+6.0%5.BenRiach+5.9%6.Caol Ila+5.1%7

37、.Talisker+4.4%8.Longmorn+4.0%9.Ardbeg+3.7%10.Clynelish+3.6%11.Arran+3.0%12.Glenlivet+2.6%13.Mortlach+2.5%14.Port Ellen+2.5%15.Glen Scotia+2.4%16.Laphroaig+2.2%17.Port Charlotte+2.0%18.Longrow+1.5%19.Glengoyne+0.4%20.Kilkerran-0.5%21.Balvenie-0.6%22.Aberlour-2.1%23.Bunnahabhain-2.2%24.Ben Nevis-2.3%2

38、5.Bowmore-2.6%26.Octomore-2.7%27.Glen Grant-3.1%28.Glenallachie-3.1%29.Kilchoman-4.2%30.Dalmore-4.9%31.Karuizawa-6.1%32.Hazelburn-6.1%33.Yamazaki-6.8%34.Hibiki-6.9%35.Springbank-7.0%36.Chichibu-7.3%37.Bruichladdich-9.0%38.Macallan-9.2%39.Lagavulin-9.4%40.Rosebank-10.0%41.Yoichi-11.6%42.Highland Park

39、-11.8%43.Glenfiddich-12.9%44.Isle of Jura-13.1%45.Glenmorangie-13.7%46.Kavalan-13.8%47.Wolfburn-14.6%48.Hanyu-16.6%49.Daftmill-24.7%50.Bimber-27.3%21Whiskystats|Insights Report 20222022 Brand RankingAuction volume change1.Springbank+67.6%2.Kilkerran+64.7%3.Longrow+63.0%4.Glenallachie+61.9%5.Hibiki+5

40、8.4%6.Yamazaki+44.1%7.Balvenie+43.7%8.Hazelburn+43.3%9.Macallan+43.2%10.Daftmill+39.7%11.Glenfiddich+35.1%12.Wolfburn+31.0%13.Glen Scotia+30.2%14.Bowmore+25.7%15.Glengoyne+23.2%16.Rosebank+23.1%17.Arran+20.2%18.Brora+16.9%19.Talisker+15.3%20.Ardbeg+15.1%21.Ben Nevis+13.4%22.Port Ellen+12.5%23.Glendr

41、onach+11.6%24.Highland Park +9.4%25.Lagavulin +5.0%26.Glenfarclas +4.9%27.Caol Ila+2.0%28.Laphroaig+1.6%29.Yoichi+1.2%30.Hanyu-1.4%31.Glenmorangie-1.5%32.Mortlach-2.7%33.BenRiach-2.8%34.Clynelish-2.9%35.Chichibu-2.9%36.Bimber-4.4%37.Isle of Jura-6.0%38.Bunnahabhain-10.1%39.Karuizawa-10.6%40.Dalmore-

42、10.7%41.Bruichladdich-10.7%42.Glen Grant-11.5%43.Kavalan-12.1%44.Octomore-12.8%45.Glenlivet-16.2%46.Longmorn-16.3%47.Kilchoman-16.8%48.Glenrothes-17.9%49.Aberlour-18.3%50.Port Charlotte-21.4%22Whiskystats|Insights Report 202223Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Although Macallan finished the year among

43、 the worst performing brands by index value,12.1%of all bottles sold were distilled by Macallana whopping 27%of the total value of the whisky auction market.And while Macallans share of bottles sold may seem lowat least when compared to the brands market share of trading valueit is still more than t

44、wice the amount of bottles sold as Springbank,Macallans nearest competitor by auction volume.From the perspective of trading value and volume,the top selling brands on the whisky auction market in 2022 are a Whos Who of prestigious distilleries.Following Macallan and Springbank in the top five of tr

45、ading volume are Ardbeg,Bowmore,and Laphroaig.The years best performing brand index,Glendronach,gained an impressive 16.8%in index value,but had a market share of only 1.7%of trading volume.Top-selling brands by trading value and trading volume24Whiskystats|Insights Report 20224.4%4.2%1.6%1.8%4.7%2.

46、1%27%2.2%6.3%3.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%MacallanSpringbankKaruizawaArdbegBowmoreYamazakiPort EllenLaphroaigHibikiHanyuBRANDSHARE OF TRADED VALUE20212022Top brands by trading value4.7%2.9%1.5%1.7%1.6%2.1%1.8%2.2%12.1%5.2%0%5%10%15%MacallanSpringbankArdbegBowmoreLaphroaigHighland ParkLagavulinGlendronachG

47、lenfiddichBruichladdichBRANDSHARE OF TRADED BOTTLES20212022Top brands by traded bottles25Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022WB14558Glen GrantSamaroli19702001Sherry Wood102548045%ABV700ml90/100766(9 Nov.2020)940(5 Dec.2022)Whiskybase IDDistilleryBottlerVintageBottledCask TypeCask NumberNumber of Bottles

48、StrengthBottle SizeWhiskybase RatingPre-2022 Auction Buyer PriceLatest Auction Buyer PriceWB38203Glen GrantSamaroli for A.Bleve19702001Sherry Wood104348045%ABV700ml90/1007,109(7 Sep.2020)2,140(5 Dec.2022)Across the secondary whisky market,there is substantial price variability for almost identical w

49、hiskies.Take the case of these two sister sherry casks from Glen Grant,which were distilled in 1970,matured until 2001,and bottled by Samaroli.These casks yielded the same amount of bottles,were bottled at the same strength,On December 5,2022,at the same auction,these two bottles were sold with an a

50、uction price difference of more than 120%!And not long ago,in 2020,a bottle of Cask 1025 sold for a relative bargain of only 766;Cask 1043,on the other hand,sold for a stunning 7,109.When considering the value of a whisky at auctionor trying to assess the value of your own bottleits imperative to kn

51、ow every last piece of bottle-specific information.Whiskystats understands this and matches each bottle to its unique Whiskybase ID.After all,the smallest details can make all the difference.and even received the same Whiskybase rating.Would you guess the hammer prices for these two sisters would be

52、 the same if they were sold on the same day in the same auction?Or would you predict a substantial difference in the market value of these two whiskies?Why details mattera case study of two sisters26Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Insider InsightMark LittlerWhisky Consultant and Market AnalystMark L

53、ittler LTDIn my opinion you can consider four types of collector:the accumulator,the enthusiast,the investor and the flipper.The reality,of course,is that there is cross-over,and one type may evolve through all stages.Many collectors start as accumulators,they begin buying any bottle they find inter

54、esting.As their experience grows they may evolve into an enthusiast,who has themes that they purchase around.Whisky investors often study value trends over whisky themes,and are sometimes deridedbut it is a rare person who is neutral about losing money.Flippers are the least liked by other collector

55、s,and often wont admit that they dabble in the odd flip.Like it or not,investors and flippers have become an intrinsic part of the industry,and help maintain the market for drinkers and other collectors.Not convinced?Both independent bottlers and distilleries increasingly shape their releases to app

56、eal to these types of collectors,creating limited editions,fancy packaging,and more.These sell out in record time,providing bottlers and distilleries with cashflow to create even more exciting whisky.This encourages new distilleries to open,which develops competition and qualityhelping to maintain a

57、 healthy growing industry.Ultimately,all types of collector are part of the evolving continuity of the whisky industry.Whether you own one bottle or one thousand,for profit,status,or money,if you are passionate about whisky then you are part of the club.How do you define a whisky collector?27Whiskys

58、tats|Insights Report 202228Whiskystats|Insights Report 202203NAS whisky overtakes classic age statementsDoes age still matter?29Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022A whiskys age is a factor collectors often consider when buying whisky,and it can have a notable effect on a whiskys price at auction.In 202

59、2,however,the most notable whisky age-related phenomenon might be that the percentage of no-age statement whiskiescommonly referred to as NAScontinues to grow on the whisky auction market.Nearly one third(29%)of all whisky sold at auction in 2022 carries no age statement.In fact,NAS bottles were the

60、 only segment that increased in market share from 2021,ending a four-year trend that had also seen increases in the less-than-10 and 10-15-years-old segments.This could be a reflection of the retail market,where NAS bottles have become more prevalent in the last decade.How old are you?29%11%28%13%10

61、%4%3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%NAS 30AGE SEGMENTSHARE OF TRADED BOTTLES20022Older whiskies have an increasingly smaller share of the market30Whiskystats|Insights Report 202231Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Accounting for 28%of the bottles traded in 2022 is the 10-15-years-old segment.The vast m

62、ajority of these are 12-year-old whiskies,a classic whisky age statement.While the number of bottles of 10-to-15-year-old whiskies sold was similar to the total number of NAS bottles,the total amount of money spent on whiskies from the 10-15-years-old segment was significantly less:16.3%compared to

63、23.1%for NAS bottlings.This indicates that,on average at least,the market value of NAS whiskies is often higher than whiskies with a low age statement.Starting with whiskies from 16 years old,age really starts to correlate with higher median buyer-price at auction.An older whisky typically means a s

64、carcer whiskyand we consequently see fewer sales and higher prices at auction for older whiskies.In 2022,only 3%of whiskies sold at auction were over 30 years old,a percentage that has decreased each of the past four years.Faster price growth for NAS and older whiskies32Whiskystats|Insights Report 2

65、0222022 was a year in which older vintages across the market became even more rare at auction.Only 5%of all bottles traded in 2022 carry a vintage(year of distillation)statement from the 1980s,and the volume of bottles traded from pre-1980s vintages was even lower than that.Nearly half(46%)of the bo

66、ttles sold at auction in 2022 have no vintage on the label,and,among bottles with a vintage statement,only the market share of 2010s vintage bottles is currently increasing.Whiskies with a vintage statement in the first decade of the 2000s declined in volume of bottles sold at auction,after peaking

67、in 2021.Vintage shopping1%4%5%13%19%9%46%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010sno vintageDECADE OF DISTILLATIONSHARE OF TRADED BOTTLES20022Older vintage bottles become increasingly rare33Whiskystats|Insights Report 202234Whiskystats|Insights Report 202204A new era f

68、or independent bottlersIndependents Day?35Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Responsible for many collectible whiskies,early independent bottler pioneers from ItalyMoon Imports,Intertrade,Samaroli and Sestantewere amongst the first to emphasise serial label design,creating whisky series that appealed t

69、o whisky collectors.These independent bottlers played an important part in the popularisation of premium whisky,but,like independent bottlers today,they were reliant on distilleries to produce and sell them whisky.The nature of the independent bottlers business means independent bottlers will likely

70、 never compete with official bottlings in terms of total trading volume.Dont overlook the independents36Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Of all bottles sold at auction in 2022,23.8%were from independent bottlers,down from 27.1%in 2021.Distillery original bottlings were also more valuable at auction o

71、n average.In terms of traded value,independent bottlers represented an 18.8%market share in 2022,down significantly from 22.2%in 2021.Yet there is good reason for collectors not to overlook independent bottlers.The index for distillery-bottled whisky,also known as original bottlings,followed the mar

72、ket-wide price reversal trend of 2022.For whiskies bottled by independent bottlers,the rise and fall over the course of the year was similar,but not as sharp.Indeed,the independent bottling index outperformed the original bottling index in 2022,finishing the year up 2.0%while the original bottling i

73、ndex lost 4.8%.Index gains for indy bottlers955120JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022INDEX POINTSIndependent BottlingsOriginal BottlingsIndependent bottler index outperformed distillery original index37Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Over the course of the past five years,the distill

74、ery original bottling index has gained more relative value than independent bottlings.During the height of market value growth,the original bottling index gained more relative value faster than the independent bottling index,but that gap narrowed and was much closer near the end of 2022.So,while ori

75、ginal bottlings have proven to be capable of big gains,they are also more volatile.While this may not factor into purchase decisions of every whisky collector,independent bottlings might be of interest to those collectors more concerned about the risk of a bottle losing market value.Value or volatil

76、ity?9555185195Jan18Jul18Jan19Jul19Jan20Jul20Jan21Jul21Jan22Jul22Dec222018-2022INDEX POINTSIndependent BottlingsOriginal BottlingsHigher volatility for distillery original index38Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Independent bottlers are some of the most illustrious names in moder

77、n whisky history.Signatory Vintage.Douglas Laing.The Scotch Malt Whisky Society.Together,independent bottlers have released some truly iconic bottles.Cadenheads dumpy bottlings are revered,Samaroli have bottled some of arguably the best whiskies of all-time,and Gordon&MacPhail continue to amaze with

78、 their vast stock.These companies,as well as many other independent bottlers,play an important role on the whisky auction market.Like Macallan among producer bottlings,Gordon&MacPhail is clearly in a league of their own amongst independents in terms of trading value.However,along with nearly all of

79、the other most-traded independent bottlers,Gordon&MacPhail lost market share in 2022.This could be indicative of a new wave of auction market participants with different preferences.Or,perhaps distillery original releases are now becoming more attractive on the auction block.Top independent bottlers

80、 1.3%1%0.4%3.1%0.4%0.4%0.5%1.2%0.5%1.6%0%1%2%3%4%Gordon&MacPhailSMWSCadenheadsSignatory VintageDouglas LaingSpeciality Drinks LtdSamaroliElixir DistillersR.W.Duthie&Co.Moon-ImportINDEPENDENT BOTTLERSHARE OF TRADED VALUE20212022Top independent bottler by trading value39Whiskystats|Insights Report 202

81、240Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022While independent bottlers share of the total auction market declined,the auction value index of several independent bottlers finished 2022 with gains.Signatory Vintage had a banner year,gaining 9.3%in 2022.Douglas Laing(+4.9%)and The Scotch Malt Whisky Society(SMW

82、S)(+2.4%)also gained,while the value of Cadenheads(-1.6%)and Gordon&MacPhail(-6.6%)declined.Top independent bottler performance90955JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022INDEX POINTSCadenheadsDouglas LaingGordon&MacPhailSignatory VintageSMWSTop independent bottler performance41Whiskysta

83、ts|Insights Report 2022The legendary independent Italian bottlers were spoiled for choice,and some would say that the independent bottler Golden Agewhen distilleries were happy to unload surplus casksis behind us.Even in that era,independent bottlers did not have it easy,marketing a product that was

84、 far less popular than it is now.And yet,todays independent bottlers can only dream of the casks from which Silvano Samaroli could choose.Times have changed.The demand for mature whisky casks has never been greaterand prices have never been higher.For the adventuresome collector,whiskies from indepe

85、ndent bottlers continue to remain desirable.But for how long will independent bottlers,who will always be dependent on producers,continue to be able to source desirable casks?The future for independents42Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Independent bottling faces a challenging time at present.Continu

86、al tightening of supply,including narrowing of diversity of available makes,the increasing trend of single malts sold unnamed,and painfully increasing prices all make it extremely hard for bottlers to establish or maintain an identity,or to offer realistic pricing.Indeed,many indy bottlers are absor

87、bing price hikes and eroding their margins rather than passing all price hikes onto consumers.All while general consumer spending patterns are changing in light of the wider economic uncertaintieswhich makes the sales process considerably challenging.Collectors and drinkers alike are understandably

88、being far more discerning in their spending.There are still many excellent and exciting indy bottlers,with diversification into other spirits becoming more prevalent.Alongside an increasing use of short term re-racking techniques to apply differentiation to younger whiskies which seems to deliver mi

89、xed results.The future of this type of business is precarious and transitionary at present.But it seems likely that as more and more new,indy distilleries(and not only those in Scotland but around the world)come online,we will start to see an increasingly symbiotic,and hopefully mutually beneficial

90、relationship between producer and bottler that bypasses the more traditional large scale producers and brokers network.I suspect we will also see,over time,a depletion of medium sized indy bottling companies and a rise of quality focussed,hobby bottlers.At present indy bottling is brutally competiti

91、ve given the crowded marketplace;it seems likely this will re-balance over time.In conclusion:the present indy bottling market,and its immediate outlook,is not all doom and gloom but it is far from rosy.Insider InsightAngus MacRaildIndependent Bottler of Decadent Drinks43Whiskystats|Insights Report

92、202244Whiskystats|Insights Report 202205Independent ratings in whiskys ecosystemA measure of quality?45Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022The other sections of this report focus on the market value of whisky.However,the quality of the whisky inside the bottle,often the factor a collector values most,is

93、 hardly mentioned.But how does one measure whiskys quality?The practice of rating whisky,widely adopted by professionals and enthusiasts alike,is now a fixture of whiskys ecosystem.Over the years,ratings have become part of a language shared by a large contingent of the whisky community.Distilleries

94、,retailers,and whisky auctions all use ratings from well-known critics and commentators to promote the products they offer.Take this well-known bottle of Ardbeg,a no-age-statement bottle released to commemorate Ardbeg Day in 2017.Much sought after upon releaseand still relatively widely available on

95、 secondary marketsthis whisky is considered stand-out by Jim Murray(Beautifully crafted and cleverlyand intriguinglystructured),but rather average according to Serge Valentin(Not that its badits just kind of lost a wee chunk of the brands DNA).Ratings,ratings,ratings The NAS Ardbeg Kelpie Committee

96、Release currently trades for an average auction market price around 300,though it has sold for a buyer price as high as 405 in the recent past.88 Whisky Advocate94 Jim Murray86 Serge Valentin87 Whiskybase MembersArdbeg KelpieCommittee ReleaseWhiskybase ID WB8616346Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022050

97、002500300035004000Jan14Apr14Jul14Oct14Jan15Apr15Jul15Oct15Dec152014-2015BUYER PRICEPrice observations of Yamazaki Sherry Cask(2013)Michael Jacksons Malt Whisky Companion,first published in 1989,is generally credited with introducing the concept of scoring whisky.Each entry in Jacksons boo

98、k received a score out of 100 and,just like that,whisky readers had a yardstick by which to measure and compare one whisky to another.By the early 2000s two other notable whisky reviewers appeared on stage.Whisky enthusiast Serge Valentin launched his blog Whisky Fun in 2002,where he has since revie

99、wed and rated over 18,000 whiskies.In 2003,Jim Murray released the first edition of his Whisky Bible,which played a large part in cementing whisky ratings in the collective minds of the whisky community.Just as art critics have influenced the market value of the pieces they choose to review,reviews

100、have unquestionably influenced the whisky market.There are plentiful examples of Serge Valentins tasting notes creating a run on a particular bottle,simply because of his influence as a whisky reviewer.Maybe the best example is Jim Murray crowning the Yamazaki Sherry Cask 2013(Whiskybase ID WB46208)

101、as his Whisky of the Year in 2014,a boon for the entire Japanese whisky category.In the chart below,note the highlighted auction hammer price of 343 on November 2,2014,one day before news of the Yamazaki Sherry Casks new distinction.The next time the bottle sold at auction it sold for 1,277 buyer pr

102、ice.Ratings pioneersNovember 2,201447Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Malt Whisky Companion is published.The writer,Michael Jackson,is credited as the first to judge whisky on a 100-point scale.Malt Whisky CompanionThe first edition of Jim Murrays Whisky Bible,an annual publication that rates whiskie

103、s and names a whisky of the year.Whisky BibleAeneas MacDonalds treatise Whisky compares the quality of whiskies from different regions and distilleries.Aeneas MacDonaldSerge Valentin starts Whisky Fun,a blog that has since reviewed more than 18,000 whiskies.Whisky FunW beginsit has become the worlds

104、 largest whisky database,reviews,and ratings site.Whiskybase200731930Many influential whisky commentators use a 100-point scale,but all in different ways.Michael Jackson explained that,on his scale,each whisky was given a starting score of 50,no matter the quality.From there he would add

105、points to arrive at a final score.Jim Murray critiques four main characteristics(nose,taste,finish,and balance),each of which is allocated a maximum of 25 points.Whisky Advocate magazine states that ratings are the means by which the magazine can relate a relative comparison of quality,and Serge Val

106、entin describes his 100-point scale as a way to answer the question:How close are we to a theoretically perfect drink?A score of 85 points on Valentins scale would mean 85%.All of this illustrates the inherent subjectivity of whisky ratings.Jackson,Murray,Whisky Advocate,and Valentin combine their r

107、atings with in-depth tasting notes,offering a better understanding of how they arrived at their conclusions.Beyond the rating and tasting notes,actively following any whisky reviewer provides whisky enthusiasts insight into their own personal tastes and preferencesand results in a much more complete

108、 understanding of what any one rating means.The 100-point scale48Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022In the whisky world,ratings are simply a topic too big to ignore.For the whisky collector buying at auction,ratingsand their distribution across lots offeredare a great tool for understanding the whisky

109、communitys taste.Whiskybase is the worlds largest whisky database and rating site,containing entries for hundreds of thousands of unique whiskiesand millions of ratings and reviews.Rather than rely on one reviewers score,on Whiskybase whisky ratings are democratic:they are determined by the collecti

110、ve voice of more than 175,000 members.This breadth of rating information can help us examine whether the whisky communitys measure of quality has any correlation with bottles sold at auction.The peoples whisky ratings 49Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022A total of 141,857 whiskies were rated on Whisky

111、base by the end of 2022.Most whiskies(77%)received an overall rating between 80 and 90 points,and just a fraction of all the ratings fell below 65(1.2%)or above 95(0.2%).In some respects,the Whiskybase ratings data confirms what critics of the 100-point scale have said for years:only a small part of

112、 the entire scale is used.This can also be viewed as a testament to the high quality of whisky produced around the worldand,with the median and average rating on Whiskybase hovering around 86 points,it may simply be that distillers know a thing or two about what whisky drinkers like.Ratings distribu

113、tion on Whiskybase00400050006000700080009000200050005 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95WHISKYBASE RATINGNUMBER OF WHISKIESDistribution of Whiskybase ratings by end of 202250Whiskystats|Insights Report

114、 2022The highest-rated whiskies,those with a 90-95 rating on Whiskybase,represent 13.6%of bottles sold on the whisky auction market.Perhaps surprisingly,this category has declined over the past four years in market share,even though the growth of ratings cultureand Whiskybaseare stronger than ever.M

115、ore than one third(37.6%)of bottles sold at auction are rated between 87-90 points on Whiskybase,a segment that has increased its auction market share,in bottles traded,in each of the past four years.Perhaps most interesting of all is the fact that nearly half(44.2%)of all bottles sold at auction in

116、 2022 have a Whiskybase rating below 87.So while it may be true that no other topic leads to more argument in the whisky community than a whiskys rating,it remains but one factor that mayor may notaffect a purchase decision.After all,one persons idea of an average 80-point dram,might be a collectors

117、 90+unicorn.Top-rated whisky at auction4.6%4.1%19.1%21.0%37.6%13.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%no rating 8080-84.985-86.987-89.990-95WHISKYBASE RATING SEGMENTSHARE OF TRADED BOTTLES20022Top rated whiskies become increasingly rare51Whiskystats|Insights Report 202252Whiskystats|Insights Report

118、 202206Looking forwardWhats in store for collectors?53Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022+0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%+30%+35%Mar19Jun19Sep19Dec19Mar20Jun20Sep20Dec20Mar21Jun21Sep21Dec21Mar22Jun22Sep22Dec222019-2022MEDIAN RETAIL PRICE SURPLUSPrice difference between lowest retail price and auction valueWhisky

119、stats tracks 1.4 million retail prices and,in the coming year,will delve deeper into tracking retail price movement.An indispensable part of the whisky ecosystem,retailers are often the first port of call for collectors.However,given the popularity of whisky worldwide,it remains to be seen how long

120、collectors will continue to find what they are looking for at retail.Comparing average auction buyer prices with the lowest known retail prices provides some intriguing insights.For example,the price difference between retail and auction spiked in December 2022.The market price reversal could be at

121、the root of this.Retail prices,especially for whisky above 250,were raised when the auction market caught fire but failed to lower as the market reversed.Tracking the growing retail price gap54Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Insider InsightThe whisky retailing market in the United States is in a sta

122、te of separation,with changing customer preferences and the evolving impact of COVID.Staple brands are as in demand as ever and some of the most rare bottles are still just as hard to find as ever.At Tower,were doing several things to adapt to these developments in order to continue to provide our w

123、hisky customers with the best possible selection,while being mindful of the need to avoid issues with flippers and other challenges.As a whisky retailer,I have seen a significant shift in whisky buying segments since COVID restrictions have ended.One noticeable trend is a shrinking of the middle tie

124、r customer group,the one we typically associate with buying premium whiskies.While this group was quite prominent beforeand especially duringthe pandemic,it has now become smaller,with buyers from the segment returning to a split between standard releases and super premium bottles.At our stores,we a

125、re still working to provide customers with a wide range of premium and super-premium collectable bottles,but we are careful about how we put them on the shelves.Flippers are clearly watching for particular deliveries,so we work to make good use of local channels and social media to connect directly

126、with our loyal customers to get them the bottles they wantboth to drink and to collect.Tyler SheronPresident,Tower Beer,Wine&Spirits55Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Looking ahead,in 2023 one legendary distillerymaybe even twowill return to production.Rosebank Distillery is expected to reopen in 202

127、3,and work on Port Ellen is also progressing.The Rosebank index was down in 2022(-10.0%),but it has performed well in the past three years overall(+33.9%).The same can be said of Port Ellen,which registered a modest 2.5%gain in 2022,but is the second-best overall performer since 2020(+68.5%).The ret

128、urn of a legend56Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022The Whiskystats Whisky Index closed 2022 down 3.3%,a result that few would have predicted early in the year.Brands that soared not long agoMacallan and Springbankfinished the year among the biggest index value losers of 2022.Beyond the annual numbers,

129、however,is a natural product that requires hard work,craft,passion,and time.Even when made in big factorieswhere no shortage of analytical work is donethe best distilleries make whisky with a soul that reverberates for generations as whisky bottles are bought,sold,collected,and enjoyed.Those who mak

130、e,sell,buy,drink,or collect whisky,all consider whisky market data.They also likely know whiskys ability to ignite something deeper.Something emotional and unquantifiable.An X-factor.The whiff of a bonfire might recall a Lagavulin shared with friends during a snowy holiday.A misty evening walk down

131、a pebbled path might bring to mind that Clynelish sipped on a hike in the Northern Highlands.No matter ones emotional ties to whisky,among the community of whisky devotees,each person craves information that can enhance their drinking and collecting experiences.The market price reversal of 2022 may

132、be a blip,a moment in time.Or it may further develop.Knowing which brands were most affectedas well as those that defied the market trendshelps everyone thirsty for whisky knowledge.The X-Factor57Whiskystats|Insights Report 202258Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022Colophon This is a report by Whiskysta

133、ts,a Whiskybase company.Fiercely independent,the report was not funded by any distillery group,bottler,whisky-adjacent agency,or related concern.Each month Whiskystats collects tens of thousands of auction price observations and tracks over 1.4 million whisky retail prices.Whiskystats incorporates r

134、atings from Whiskybase,the worlds largest whisky collection of more than 215,000 unique whiskies.Thanks to this unsurpassed dataset,Whiskystats is the standard bearer for whisky market analysis for collectors,producers,and investors.On Whiskystats,collectors have access to reliable bottle-level deta

135、ils that allow them to accurately track auction lots,view historical and current auction prices,create and track the current market value of their own whisky collection(s),set whisky watchlists,schedule notifications,and view millions of whisky ratings.WAddressZwaanshals 5303035 KS RotterdamThe Neth

136、erlandsITextThijs KlaverstijnDesignRay van der Meulen,studiolemon.nlPhotosAuction photos on pages 26 and 46 Whisky Auctioneer Ltd.;photo on page 56 Diageo;photos on pages 27,43,and 55 used with permission;all other photographs Noortje Baselmans/Whiskystats Many thanks to the following for sharing th

137、eir independent(and uncompensated)viewsMark Littler,Angus MacRaild,Tyler SheronCopyright 2023 by Whiskystats BV.All rights reserved.59Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022The information provided in this report is for information purposes only and does not constitute or intend to constitute any advice(e.

138、g.investment advice).The contents of this document are based on publicly available sources that are considered reliable but no guarantee is provided on its accuracy,correctness,or completeness either expressed or implied.Neither Whiskystats BV nor any of its group companies are responsible or liable for loss or damages related to the use of the information presented herein.The document is written and made available under Dutch law.All copyrights in this document are reserved by Whiskystats BV.Disclaimer 60Whiskystats|Insights Report 2022