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1、 gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 In search of a catalyst gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 02 Contents A market in search of a catalyst 3 Setting the record straight 4 H2:inflection ahead?4 A(largely)efficient market 4 Western investors:wanted 5 Emerging markets:gains and pains 6 Connecting th

2、e dots 7 gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 03 A market in search of a catalyst Gold has performed remarkably well in 2024,rising by 12%y-t-d and outpacing most major asset classes.Gold has thus far benefitted from continued central bank buying,Asian investment flows,resilient consumer demand,and a

3、 steady drumbeat of geopolitical uncertainty.As we look forward,the key question in investors minds is whether golds momentum can continue or if its running out of steam.With a few exceptions,the global economy is showing wavering growth indicators eager for rate cuts amid lower but still uncomforta

4、ble inflation.And the markets outlook is not too dissimilar.Our analysis suggests that the gold price today broadly reflects consensus expectations for the second half of the year.However,things rarely go according to plan.And the global economy,as well as gold,seem to be waiting for a catalyst.For

5、gold,we believe the catalyst could come from falling rates in developed markets,that attract Western investment flows,as well as continued support from global investors looking to hedge bubbling risks amid a complacent equity market and persistent geopolitical tensions.Golds outlook is,of course,not

6、 without risks.A sizable drop in central bank demand or widespread profit-taking from Asian investors could curtail its performance.As it stands,however,global investors continue to benefit from golds role in robust asset allocation strategies.Chart 1:Gold remains one of the best performing assets o

7、f 2024 Y-t-d returns for gold and key asset classes in USD*Data as of 30 June 2024.Indices used Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury ex US,Bloomberg Barclays US Bond Aggregate,ICE BofA US 3-Month Treasury Bills,New Frontier Global Institutional Portfolio Index,MSCI World ex US Total Return Index,Bloom

8、berg Commodity Total Return Index,MSCI EM Total Return Index,LBMA Gold Price PM(USD/oz),MSCI US Total Return Index.Source:Bloomberg,World Gold Council-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Global treasuries ex USUS bondsUS cashCommoditiesBalanced portfolioDM stocks ex USEM stocksGoldUS stocksReturn gold.org Gold Mid-Y

9、ear Outlook 2024 04 Setting the record straight Gold has made headlines this year,breaking record highs multiple times between mid-March and mid-May.At the time of writing,gold is up 12%y-t-d and has been trading above US$2,300/oz for most of Q2.1 It has also provided double-digit returns across mul

10、tiple currencies(Table 1).All this despite high interest rates globally,barring a few exceptions,and a strong US dollar a combination that is often seen as a hostile environment for gold.The relationship between gold,real interest rates and the US dollar is not“broken”as some market participants may

11、 think.In fact,this relationship has likely prevented gold from rising further.It is simply that,in the current environment,these factors have been offset by others that are more dominant.So,what has been behind golds record-breaking performance to date in 2024?Support has come from continued purcha

12、ses by central banks,strong Asian investment and resilient global retail consumer demand.H2:inflection ahead?The global economy and financial markets are in a transitional period.Bond yields have moved generally sideways as Western central banks have kept policy rates on hold.But pressure is mountin

13、g on policymakers as they balance lower but stubborn inflation and signs of cooling labour markets.This is exemplified by the sooner-than expected rate cut by the European Central Bank(ECB),while the Bank of England and US Fed have so far stayed put.Meanwhile,India remains one of the economic bright

14、 spots,and China will likely continue to find alternative measures to invigorate growth.In this context,we analyse how gold may react to current market expectations and explore the drivers that could lead to a different outcome.1.Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD as of 27 June 2024.A(largely)ef

15、ficient market Analysis based on QaurumSM and our Gold Valuation Framework suggests that the gold price today broadly captures consensus expectations for H2 in relation to economic growth,interest rates and inflation(Table 2).This,in turn,implies that gold may continue to move in a similar range to

16、what we have seen in recent months.In other words,after gaining good momentum in the first half of the year,current market trends indicate a rangebound performance from its current levels during H2.Its not the first time we have described a similar anticipated outcome for gold.And,at face value,a si

17、deways move does not seem very exciting.But it encapsulates two important insights.First,we are naturally using“expected”rather than“observed”values for each of the drivers;in this context,a rangebound return suggests that the gold market is fairly efficient and broadly reflects the available market

18、 information.Table 1:Gold has had double digit returns across major currencies Performance of gold in various currencies*As of 28 June 2024.Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD,expressed in local currencies.Source:Bloomberg,ICE Benchmark Administration,World Gold Council Table 2:Market consensus s

19、uggest rangebound performance for gold for H2 Consensus expectations and select gold drivers*We group variables that influence gold into four drivers to understand its performance,namely:1)economic expansion,2)risk and uncertainty,3)opportunity cost,and 4)momentum.See QaurumSM and Table Table 3 3 fo

20、r more details.Source:Bloomberg,Oxford Economics,World Gold Council USD(oz)EUR(oz)JPY(g)GBP(oz)CAD(oz)CHF(oz)INR(10g)RMB(g)TRY(oz)AUD(oz)Price at the end of H12,3312,17612,0571,8443,1902,09662,44054576,4093,492Average price in H12,2032,03810,7951,7422,9941,96158,94451169,8683,347Y-t-d return12.1%15.

21、9%27.8%13.0%16.1%19.9%12.3%14.6%24.8%15.0%Current 5.25%-5.5%;Economic scenario Opportunity cost Economic expansion Implied gold performance Rangebound Geopolitical risks Momentum Central bank purchases above trend Commodities down marginally Gold net positioning is high Below trend but improving Ris

22、k and uncertainty Stubborn inflation Risk-on positioning 10yr:stable,marginally down Dollar:flat to slightly down Expected Fed funds rate 25bp lower by year end Restrained recovery gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 05 Second,given that gold is already up by more than 10%and consensus suggests a si

23、milar result for the full year,it reiterates that gold supported by contributions from other sectors can perform well even when rates remain as expected.Western investors:wanted Given the inherent complexity in forecasting economic and financial variables,market consensus may be telling us more abou

24、t the world today than looking ahead to H2.As such,it is important to understand the conditions that could divert us from the current view.For gold,Western investors have been a missing part of the puzzle.While investors have been active as denoted by high market volumes retail investment demand has

25、 been low and gold ETFs have seen net outflows y-t-d.Golds strong performance,despite the absence of strong Western flows,suggests that,unlike previous periods when gold broke record highs,the market is still not saturated and could see another leg up(Chart 2).Demand from this segment of the market

26、could be triggered from three key sources:interest rates,recession risks and geopolitics.Interest rates Since the rate cut by the ECB in May,European gold ETFs have experienced inflows.A continuation of this trend would provide further support.And while theres already a 25bp cut by the Fed priced-in

27、 by the market for later in the year,the actual policy decision would bring reassurance to investors about the direction of rates going forward,thus fostering sustained inflows.On the flip side,of course,higher-for-longer may deter some gold investors from entering the market.Recession risks While a

28、 recession remains a low probability in the immediate term,the global economy is not firing on all pistons and,with inflation above target,central banks are not ready to cut rates more aggressively just yet.There also seems to be some complacency in financial markets.Global stocks are doing well ove

29、rall with US stocks or a subset thereof leading the pack.And volatility is near 30-year lows.Yet,historically,theres a strong relationship between the strength of manufacturing and company earnings and,at present,manufacturing is showing signs of slowing(Chart 3).Chart 3:Earnings may need more than

30、the AI boom to keep up from here ISM new orders versus S&P 500 forward earnings*Data as of 31 May 2024.Source:Bloomberg,World Gold Council Chart 2:Previous gold highs have coincided with strong Western flows suggesting that the gold market is not yet saturated Physically backed gold ETF holdings and

31、 COMEX gold positioning*Gold ETF holding as of 30 June 2024;Western funds include North America and Europe.COMEX money manager net longs as of 25 June due to data availability.Source:Bloomberg,COMEX,Company Filings,ICE Benchmark Administration,US Commodity Futures Trading Commission,World Gold Counc

32、il 02505007501,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002003200520072009200023US$/ozTonnesWestern gold ETF holdingsMoney manager net longsLBMA Gold Price PM(RHS,monthly average)-60%-35%-10%15%40%65%25354555657520007200920112013

33、200212023Percentage changeIndex level ISM new orders index(Adv.3m)S&P 500 forward EPS(Y/Y)(rhs)gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 06 Geopolitics While the current unease could be seen simply as the new normal,geopolitical risk has been on the rise in recent years and is unlikely to abate

34、 anytime soon(Chart 4).Political polarisation,armed conflicts and erosion of globalisation in favour of nationalism and select alliances fuel economic instability.Geopolitical risk is particularly difficult to predict and may come from where its least expected.What is true,however,is that gold react

35、s to geopolitics,adding 2.5%for every 100-points the Geopolitical Risk(GPR)Index moves up.2 And while part of this effect can be transient,it could also be a trigger for deteriorating financial conditions,which may have a more lasting effect.Chart 4:Geopolitical risk has been trending up Geopolitica

36、l Risk Index(GPR)*Data from https:/ as of May 2024.Source:Matteo Iacoviello,World Gold Council Emerging markets:gains and pains While theres room for gold to move up,there are also factors that could curtail its strong run.Two stand out:central banks,and Asian investors.Central banks Central bank de

37、mand has been a key driver of golds performance in recent years.We estimate that it contributed at least 10%to golds performance in 2023 and potentially around 5%so far this year.However,the Peoples Bank of China(PBoC)has reported a deceleration in gold purchases over recent months,culminating in ho

38、ldings that remained unchanged at the end of May.2.The GPR index by Matteo Iacoviello measures both actual and perceived geopolitical tension.See:Geopolitical Risk(GPR)Index()This,combined with notable sales,has raised questions as to whether demand from the official sector may lose momentum.But we

39、still expect central bank demand to remain above trend this year,a view that is shared by Metals Focus in their most recent Gold Focus report.3 While reported gross purchases may be lower than last year,gross sales have also decelerated,primarily due to the absence of the hefty Turkish sales we saw

40、in early 2023.Given that central bank demand is often policy driven,timing is difficult to ascertain,but our recent central bank survey provides some reassurance:gold reserves managers believe they will retain their positive outlook towards gold.Asian investors Asian investors have also been importa

41、nt contributors to golds recent performance.This has been evident through bar and coin demand,gold ETF flows and,anecdotally,in the over-the-counter market.In the past,Asian investors tended to buy on dips,but more recently,they have followed the trend.For example,we have seen meaningful AUM growth

42、in both Indian and Chinese gold ETFs and golds move up in early Q2 coincided with a spike in volumes in Shanghai futures(Chart 5).Chinese investor demand was partly supported by positive sentiment linked to central bank buying.So,while the fundamentals of gold ownership remain in place,the question

43、is whether a pause by the PBoC may encourage profit-taking by more tactical investors.Chart 5:Asian investors have contributed to golds strong run Chinese gold ETF holdings and futures positioning*Data as of 22 June 2024 Source:Bloomberg,Shanghai Futures Exchange,World Gold Council 3.Gold Focus 2024

44、,Metals Focus,May 2024.00500600620022Index level9/11IraqRussia-UkraineIsrael-Hamas00800960405060708090202320232024TonnesTonnesChina ETF holdingsShanghai gold futures(weekly average,RHS)gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 07 Consumers as price ma

45、kers It is often posited that consumers tend to be price takers rather than price makers.In the short-term,this may be the case.However,gold jewelllery and technology combined make up more than 40%of annual demand.As such,gold consumers play an important role in supporting and sometimes slowing down

46、 performance.And they usually respond to two key factors:price and income.In this case,the sharp upward trend in the gold price has dampened demand in some markets such as India and China.But positive economic growth can counteract some of this effect.In addition,possible gold price stability can lu

47、re back consumers who often respond more negatively to volatility than the level of the gold price.This may be particularly relevant for India,where expectations of economic growth are higher than other regions and golds role as a store of value is well cemented.Connecting the dots Our analysis show

48、cases golds likely reaction to the underlying conditions behind market consensus,as well as alternative hypothetical scenarios(Table 3).While there appear to be many moving parts,Qaurum allows us to paint a clearer picture of these interactions.In summary,gold may remain rangebound if current market

49、 expectations prevail.However,theres a clear path for gold to outperform from here,likely fuelled by Western flows.Conversely,in the event that central bank demand drops drastically,rates remain high for longer and Asian investor sentiment flips,we could see a pullback in the second half.Overall,the

50、 extent of golds reaction upwards or downwards will be a function of the magnitude by which each of the aforementioned factors or a combination thereof move.It is also important to note that each of these scenarios has implications for other asset classes.A robust asset allocation strategy must take

51、 into account not just market consensus but alternative views.And in that context,our analysis shows that gold plays a key role as a diversifier and source of liquidity,coupled with its positive long-term returns.Table 3:Golds performance in a given economic scenario is driven by the interaction of

52、its four key drivers Economic scenarios and factors that impact gold based on key drivers*Based on market consensus and other indicators.Size of gold drivers represents relative importance within each scenario.Impact on gold performance based on average annual prices as implied by the Gold Valuation

53、 Framework.Source:World Gold Council Current 5.25%-5.5%;Economic scenario Recession risk Opportunity cost Economic expansion Central bank purchases continue but at or slightly below trend Implied gold performance Colour key(effect on gold):Positive Neutral Negative Rangebound Additional upside Downs

54、ide pressure Expected Fed funds rate 25bp lower by year end Central bank purchases above trend Central bank purchases above trend Momentum Commodities down marginally Commodities sell off Commodities rebound Gold net positioning is high Gold net positioning increases Gold net positioning deteriorate

55、s Risk and uncertainty Stubborn inflation Inflation drops but is above target Inflation reaccelerates Risk-on positioning Risk-off positioning Market volatility Geopolitical risks Geopolitical risks Geopolitical risks Dollar:flat to slightly down Dollar:up on safe haven Dollar up on rates differenti

56、al Below trend but improving Recession risks increase for 2025 Growth slows down Restrained recovery Higher-for-longer 10yr:stable,marginally down 10yr:lower 10yr slightly higher More rate cuts priced in 5.5%-6.5%by year end gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 08 World Gold Council We are a membersh

57、ip organisation that champions the role gold plays as a strategic asset,shaping the future of a responsible and accessible gold supply chain.Our team of experts builds understanding of the use case and possibilities of gold through trusted research,analysis,commentary and insights.We drive industry

58、progress,shaping policy and setting the standards for a perpetual and sustainable gold market.Research Jeremy De Pessemier,CFA Asset Allocation Strategist Johan Palmberg Senior Quantitative Analyst Kavita Chacko Research Head,India Krishan Gopaul Senior Analyst,EMEA Louise Street Senior Markets Anal

59、yst Ray Jia Research Head,China Taylor Burnette Research Lead,Americas Juan Carlos Artigas Global Head of Research Market Strategy John Reade Senior Market Strategist,Europe and Asia Joseph Cavatoni Senior Market Strategist,Americas Further information:Data sets and methodology visit:www.gold.org/go

60、ldhub Contact:researchgold.org gold.org Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 09 Important information and disclaimers 2024 World Gold Council.All rights reserved.World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with

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66、 from the use of this information.This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information,you agree with its intended purpose.Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation,investment advice,or offer for the purchase or sale of gold,any gold-related p

67、roducts or services or any other products,services,securities or financial instruments(collectively,“Services”).This information does not take into account any investment objectives,financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.Diversification does not guarantee any investment ret

68、urns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature,may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarant

69、ees of future results.The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use.Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professio

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71、-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties.There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved.World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuat

72、ion Framework Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum,the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature,may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.Neither World

73、Gold Council(including its affiliates)nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool,including without limitation any projections,estimates or calculations.World Gold Council7th Floor,15 Fetter Lane London EC4A 1BW United Kingdom T+44 20 7826 4700 W www.gold.org Published:July 2024