1、STOCK GUIDE 2022 Q4STOCK MARKET PSYCHOLOGY:The Mental Side of Trading 2022 Investors Business Daily and IBD are trademarks owned by Investors Business Daily,LLC.MarketSmith is a registered trademark of ONeil Capital Management Inc.Whether our Product Coaches are talking MarketSmith tips or more adva

2、nced trading strategies,we dedicate all our webinars to helping you become a more successful and confident investor.Watch the latest webinars and see the upcoming schedule at: webinars are live interactive presentations exclusively for our members.MarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 3Stock Guide/2022 Q4Its

3、easy to get consumed with the prospect of making tons of money in the stock marketso much so that we may sometimes forget to take a step back and consider that theres a psychological component to trading.One of the most important qualities of any successful trader is having the guts to look at a bad

4、 trade and understand what went wrong.After all,how else will you learn from your mistakes?We all have the tendency to get frustrated by our lossesand maybe even overly prideful with our wins.Understanding the mental side of trading plays a big part in your long-term success.In this issues feature a

5、rticle,well explore how emotional responses impact your trading performance.More specifically,well review some common emotions traders go through,like anger,fear,pride and greed,and offer some strategies you can use to correct them.For our Q&A this quarter,we spoke with mental game coach and author

6、Jared Tendler,whos worked with people of all professions,from traders to golfers and even champion poker players.With three highly acclaimed books that lay out proven techniques,including his latest work,The Mental Game of Trading,Jared has helped hundreds of professionals solve their mental game pr

7、oblems and perform at their highest levels.And in the latest edition of Good Trade/Bad Trade,IBD Market Research Director Justin Nielsen gave us a breakdown of two of his recent trades.Justin locked in some sweet profits on a high-performing yet volatile solar stock leading its group.On the flip sid

8、e,he played with fire and let the desire for a revenge trade on a chip giant get the best of him.As always,if you have any questions or comments about your investing research or any MarketSmith features,please call one of our product coaches at(800)831-2525 or email us at .Were here to help you make

9、 more money in the market.Best returns,The MarketSmith Team 42022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketS4Market Chart Nasdaq CompositeNasdaq CompositeQuotes delayed 20 minutes.Ownership data provided by Refinitiv and Estimate data provided by FactS 2022 Investors Business Daily,LLC.All rights reserved.10.24.2022$10

10、952.61+92.89+0.86%V olume 47,446,300 +4%Last Updated:4:00 PM ET 10/24/22Nasdaq Composite(0NDQC)Average Daily Volume 4,574,760,0002000500016000Inde xScale37,900,00047,500,00059,700,00074,900,000Volume(00)DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOct02926320

11、062208250812270.1912320.1214646.9012587.8813094.6516053.3911230.4413181.0910565.1411035.6912555.3514509.5615901.4714860.0414931.0616212.2314181.699.4B6.6B8.1B6.9B7.0B7.2B5.8B7.6B6.6BRS0S&P5MarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 5Table of ContentsMarket Chart.4Five Emotions That Can Impact

12、 Your Trading.6 Stock Screen:Good Stocks in Bad Markets*.10 Clean Harbors Inc(CLH).13Q&A:Jared Tendler.14Good Trade/Bad Trade:Justin Nielsen.18 Stock Screen:Goldilocks Technical Setups*.24 Catalyst Pharma Inc(CPRX).25 Petroleo Bras Sa Ptr Adr(PBR).26 Conocophillips(COP).27Features Highlights:Barrons

13、 400,Updated Lists and Earnings Alerts .28*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on October 24,2022.CONNECT WITH US62022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketSFeature Article Five Emotions That Can Impact Your TradingAs investors,we often get so swept up in the everyday nuts and bolts of tradingcha

14、rt analysis,poring over fundamentals,screening for new trade ideasthat we forget the mental aspect of trading.When your hard-earned money is on the line,its natural to feel emotions like fear(of losing your money)or greed(wanting to make easy money quickly).Five Emotions That Can Impact Your Trading

15、MarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 7Five Emotions That Can Impact Your Trading Feature Article When it comes to investing,letting your emotions control your trading can severely impact your performance.Your job is to recognize your emotions,identify the root causes and then implement strategies to correct

16、them.Once youve corrected the causes of your emotions,you dont need to control them because theyre no longer triggered.This is a process,and certainly not an overnight one,but its a valuable goal to pursue if you want to be the best investor you can be.Anger can make you feel disengaged from the mar

17、ket when you should be watching and researching.Right now,people are angry at the market and the performance of their portfolios.Thats understandable!Its been a difficult year for active investors,with small tradeable rallies popping up amid an overall pronounced downtrend.When you throw in heighten

18、ed volatility,it makes for an aggravating mix.But when anger makes you say,“Forget it,I quit,”that means you wont be there for the beginning of the next uptrendand theres always another uptrend coming.The early days of a new bull market are when leading stocks make some of their biggest gains.If you

19、 miss these giant moves because youre frustrated and mentally checked out,youll be even angrier than if you kept your powder dry,stayed mostly in cash and spent time searching for new leaders.With the market entering Q4 still searching for a bottom,its only a matter of time.Your job is to be ready w

20、ith a watchlist of quality names showing:Big double-or triple-digit earnings and sales growth High relative strength,preferably with the relative strength line at a new 52-week high(indicated by a Blue Dot in MarketSmith)A proper setup for a breakout(e.g.,a base pattern)Fear leads you to buy the wro

21、ng stocks or get shaken out of the right ones.Fear is another common sentiment in the market this year.Whether its interest rates and the Fed,a painful recession or geopolitical instability,theres plenty of fear of uncertainty to go around.While its a good instinct to be wary of uncertainty and vola

22、tility,you have to recognize that the ultimate arbiter of market health is the price and volume action on the chart.You cant predict the future,but you can watch the chart action and act accordingly.82022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketSFeature Article Five Emotions That Can Impact Your TradingFear can also r

23、ear its head when youre holding a stock but get shaken out too early and miss out on big gains.After a stock breaks out and starts rising in price,many of the best leading stocks tend to pull back.Perfectly good stocks often dip in value and retest buy points or 10-week moving average lines.At this

24、point,many investors get impatient or scared that the breakout has failed,so they sell prematurely.If you buy within 5%of a proper buy point(the blue shaded area on a MarketSmith chart)and stick to your trading rules,you can ignore the shakeout and wait for the stock to continue its breakout.In stro

25、nger markets,a different type of fear can hurt you:the fear of missing out or FOMO.You might notice a stock skyrocketing in price,sometimes spurred by phenomena like short squeezes,IPO hype or the“meme stock”bump.Because who doesnt want to make 50%or more in a few days?The problem with buying stocks

26、 after big price jumps is that youre likely already too late to the party.And these giant moves often lack a proper technical s Pictured:AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC),a stock where buyers that were late to the game got burned.FOMO buyers here at$70How do they feel here at$7?“Just because you made

27、money on a trade doesnt mean your process was necessarily good,and if you lose money on a trade,it doesnt mean your process was bad.MarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 9Five Emotions That Can Impact Your Trading Feature Article setup and/or the fundamental qualities that spur large,sustained price moves.So

28、if you miss the initial pop,wait and see if it presents another proper setupmost times,after the“sugar high”fades,the stock will fall back down to earth almost as quickly as it took off.Greed leads to holding too long when you should have taken profits.We all want to prosper in the market.But holdin

29、g on to every stock and waiting for a triple-digit move runs counter to how the market works.Research shows that most quality growth stocks run up,on average,20-25%after a breakout from a base before they need to“take a break”and consolidate gains.If you sell at least some of your position at 20-25%

30、above the pivot point(the shaded green zone in MarketSmith),you can lock in your gains and move on to the next stock breaking out.Alternatively,in strong uptrends when conditions are more favorable,you can use the 50-day moving average line(or its weekly equivalent,the 10-week line)as your sell sign

31、al to stay in a stock beyond 20-25%.It can help you capture bigger moves,but it can also lead you to give back big chunks of your unrealized gains.Thats why its good to take profits into strength along the way.The old adage still stands:bulls make money,bears make money and pigs get slaughtered.Prid

32、e makes you rationalize losses and prevents learning from mistakes.Just because you made money on a trade doesnt mean your process was necessarily good,and if you lose money on a trade,it doesnt mean your process was bad.Its important to realize that pride can be one of the biggest disruptors of a r

33、ules-based investing system youve worked hard to develop and implement.For example,if you ignored your buy and sell rules but secured a reward nonetheless,youre likely to internalize the belief that you have good“gut instincts.”Who needs rules when youre suddenly the best stock trader since Jesse Li

34、vermore?Conversely,have you ever bought a stock thinking its going to be the next monster to dominate the market,and then it falls and you take a loss?Pride can lead you to rationalize your mistake and stubbornly cling to your original thesis.This can lead to“revenge trading,”where you get back into

35、 the stock just to prove that you were right about it.102022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketSFeature Article Five Emotions That Can Impact Your TradingThe fact is,the market dictates the winners and the losers.You have to follow the price and volume action,and if the trade isnt working,you swallow your pride

36、and follow your rules.The market can and will humble even the greatest investors,so its best to check your ego at the door and study your trades with an eye toward what you could improve.Hope makes you hold onto stocks that you should have sold.The worst thing you can do is hold onto a losing stock

37、and try to“hope”it back up.Sure,youre down 10%alreadybut its such a good stock,and you did all the analysis,so this must be temporary.The fact is,stocks trending lower tend to continue lower for some time,during which holders and“hope-ers”may have to sit through sizable losses.Fortunately,there is a

38、n easy way to avoid the hold-and-hope trap:Have a no-questions-asked sell rule for cutting losses and stick to it.You dont necessarily have to set a stop-loss with your broker,but make sure to set price alerts in MarketSmith so youll immediately be aware when you need to cut losses and take action.S

39、o What Can You Do?Follow a rules-based system:If you follow set rules around when to buy and sell,your subjective emotions dont even enter into the equation.For example,in How to Make Money in Stocks,William ONeil wrote that he follows a non-negotiable rule to cut losses at a maximum of 7-8%below th

40、e price he paid for a stockno exceptions.Following rules like this makes it easy to execute trades quickly and according to plan,plus you dont freeze up in a critical moment when its time to act.Its important to tailor your rules to your trading style and personality.For example,if youre a shorter-t

41、erm swing trader,you may want to have smaller profit targets and tighter stop-losses,like 10%and 3%,respectively.This works because youre making more frequent trades and holding for shorter periods,so the compounding effect works in your favor.For a demonstration of post-analysis and some helpful ti

42、ps from the MarketSmith coaches,check out our exclusive webinar at 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 11Five Emotions That Can Impact Your Trading Feature Article Its also important to recognize that you can always improve your rules,so long as you follow them and analyze the changes to confirm they are indeed imp

43、rovements.No single rule is“correct”for everyone,so if a rule isnt working for you,try something elsebut do it consistently.Do a post-analysis of your trades:Post-analysis is the key to recognizing when emotions are interfering with your trading and hurting your bottom line.Additionally,post-analysi

44、s encourages you to refine your rules and improve your outcome.Its like an athlete watching game film to study what they did and how they can improve the next time theyre on the field.Start by printing out the charts of stocks you traded over the past six months.You dont have to start with every sin

45、gle stock chart;you can always pick your 3-5 big-gest wins and losses,then ask yourself:What did my winners have in common?And how could I have handled them better?What did my losers have in common?Which emotions led to the bad outcome?If youre noticing the same mistakes over and over again,its impo

46、rtant to adjust your rules accordingly.Check out our Q&A with mental game coach Jared Tendler on pages 14-17 for more strategies you can use to counteract negative emotions.Remember,during rough markets,its important to preserve not just your physical capital but your mental capital,too.Forcing trad

47、es and losing money can leave you depleted mentally,and then you might not be ready to jump in early in the new uptrend.So instead,maintain a positive attitude and work on the mental aspect of your trading,and youll emerge smarter and stronger than before.n“Post-analysis is the key to recognizing wh

48、en emotions are interfering with your trading and hurting your bottom line.122022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketS12Visit I to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.All screen results are computer-generated and were run on October 24,2022.Having troub

49、le identifying leading stocks while the markets going sideways or down?Try this screen,which casts a wide net for stocks with strong earnings growth,an RS line within 5%of a new high and a 95+Composite Rating.Screen created by Scott St.Clair,Premium Product Group ManagerCOMPANY(SYMBOL)INDUSTRY GROUP

50、COMP RATINGClean Harbors Inc(CLH)Pollution Control99Matador Resources Co(MTDR)Oil&Gas-U S Expl&Prod99Pioneer Natural Resource(PXD)Oil&Gas-U S Expl&Prod99Vertex Pharmaceuticals(VRTX)Medical-Biomed/Biotech99Digi International Inc(DGII)Computer-Networking99E O G Resources Inc(EOG)Oil&Gas-U S Expl&Prod9

51、9Stock Screen Good Stocks in Bad MarketsGood Stocks in Bad MarketsMarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 13Clean Harbors Inc(CLH)Good Stocks in Bad Markets Stock ScreenReal-time prices by Nasdaq Last Sale.Real-time quote and/or trade prices are not sourced from all markets.Ownership data provided by Refinitiv

52、and Estimate data provided by FactSet.marketsmithi 2022 Investors Business Daily,LLC.All rights reserved.-0.05-0.04%$118.50V olume 286,400-27%Last Updated:3:59 PM ET 10/24/2290100110120PriceScale186,000302,000490,000794,000VolumeDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOct029261229150117

53、03200622082508PROVIDES COLLECTION,TRANSPORTATION,TREATMENT,DISPOSAL AND SITE DECONTAMINATION OF HAZARDOUS/NClean Harbors Inc(CLH)NYSE Pollution Control(66/197)Average Daily Volume 401,119.44106.71124.49124.3390.3785.67115.0087.11101.37111.3883.5681.56100.15112.1988.8090.25103.8

54、7118.89569,900908,500699,100805,200839,500836,100779,8001.3MRS Rating940S&P5EPS Due9 DaysEPS+105%EPS+98%EPS+41%EPS+27%1.14vs0.90+27%951.5vs779.3+22%+13.6%Qtr Ended September 30,20210.89vs0.63+41%1119.5vs796.2+41%+14.1%Qtr Ended December 31,20210.83vs0.42+98%1169.1vs808.2+45%+15.1%Qtr Ended March 31,

55、20222.44vs1.19+105%1356.3vs926.5+46%+18.8%Qtr Ended June 30,2022EPS Due 11/2*Earnings($)Sales($Mil)Return on Equity5%to PivotReal-time prices by Nasdaq Last Sale.Real-time quote and/or trade prices are not sourced from all markets.Ownership data provided by Refinitiv and Estimate data provided by Fa

56、ctSet.2022 Investors Business Daily,LLC.All rights reserved.142022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketSQ&A A Conversation with Jared TendlerMental game and performance coach Jared Tendler works with all types of people,from Wall Street traders to PGA golfers and even professional poker play-ers.His latest book,Th

57、e Mental Game of Trading,gives investors a step-by-step system for mastering trading psychology.As a licensed mental health counselor with more than 17 years of experience,Jared has cracked the code to some of the biggest mental blockers impacting performance.MarketSmith recently sat down with Jared

58、 to talk about his work as a mental game coach for investors,some strat-egies he uses to help traders manage negative emotions and much more.To start off,can you tell us a bit about your background and what sparked your interest in becoming a mental game coach?My entry into this space is a classic e

59、n-trepreneurial tale of searching for a better solution.I wanted to play golf profession-allybut I kept choking under pressure in big tournaments.I was a three-time All-American in college and won nine times,but when it came to qualifying for the U.S.Open or the U.S.Amateur,I couldnt perform.I dove

60、into golf and sports psychology,looking for answers.What I found helped me overalljust not when it mattered most.Reasoning that golf psychology was missing an understanding of why I was choking,I decided to put my dream of playing professional golf on hold and got a Masters degree in counseling psy-

61、chology to figure it out for myself.After getting my Masters,I spent another two years getting licensed as a therapist and then moved to Arizona to start my practice working with golfers.After build-ing a roster of professionals,amateurs and top juniors,I randomly met a pro-fessional poker player wh

62、o needed my coaching.This introduced me to a whole new clientele that desperately needed mental game assistance,but no one was helping them!Once I started coaching poker players,I quickly found myself working with many of the best players in the world.I wrote my first book,The Mental Game of Poker,a

63、nd soon after,I started hearing from investors that my poker book was helping Jared TendlerA CONVERSATION WITHMarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 15A Conversation with Jared Tendler Q&Athem trade.Recognizing the similarities between poker and trading,I dove into the investing world,and eight years later,I r

64、eleased The Mental Game of Trading.Although my professional golf aspira-tions never came to fruition,I did solve my issues and am now in a spot where Im going to try to play in some big golf tournaments again.What sort of tactics or mechanisms do you use to help traders manage their emotions?Before

65、I give any specific tips,we need to be clear on how traders should think about emotions.Emotions are a signal they are not the problem.Of course,they are part of the costly errors you makebut they are not the problem.Think about it this way:if you were walking down the street and suddenly felt pain

66、in your foot,youd be curious as to the cause of the pain.Lets assume it was simply a rock that had gotten into your shoethe pain was the signal alerting you to a problem.The problem was the rocknot the pain.Similarly,emotions are a signal.The problems are the faulty beliefs,illusions,wishes or biase

67、s in the back of your mind,such as expecting to make money every day,the need to be right,the illusion of control or the need to make money now.These flaws are the true cause of your emotions and what you need to address.The best way to start doing that is by studying your pattern of FOMO,revenge tr

68、ading,overconfidence,fear of failure or greed.Youre an expert in recognizing patterns in the market,and you need to be an expert in recognizing the patterns in yourself.Your emotional reactions happen again and again in very similar waysyou can use that to your advantage.Once you start noticing sign

69、s that your emotions are on the rise,take action to disrupt the emotional reaction by doing some-thing different.Take a walk,restate your goals,journal for a minute or do some deep breathing exercises.Do these before you jump into a position too early or exit after only making a small profit.Catchin

70、g it early on gives you the best chance of success.Given what a rough year its been in the market,its safe to say that many traders are experiencing feelings of fear and doubt.How do you help your clients get past these particular emotions?The first thing to do is rule out whether the fear and doubt

71、 are a byproduct of weakness in your strategy/system.Doubt could simply be a signal theres something off in your strategythis is common if youre a newer trader because you dont yet have enough experience or even clarity on all aspects of your strategy.As a more experienced 162022 Q4 Stock Guide Mark

72、etStrader,it could be a signal that you need to adjust or be more selective.Ive had several clients correct their hesitation around entries(a common problem caused by fear)simply by tightening up their strategy.Beyond that,you want to analyze the fears and doubts you bring into the mar-ket.Look at s

73、etups,positions or scenarios where you hesitate,second-guess or go against your gut,and analyze the thoughts that arise.Your thoughts provide clues to help you identify the flaws and biases behind your fears.And you cant correct your fears until you know what they are.Have you ever advised your trad

74、er cli-ents to take a complete break from the market?Or do you think being active in the market while adjusting your mental game plan is a better approach?Im actually working with a client right now whos on an extended break.This particular trader has never been consis-tently profitable and has give

75、n himself one more chance to make it work.Hes doing a lot of analysis and prepara-tionboth on his strategy and his mental gameto prepare for the final push.Aside from an extreme case like this,traders generally underestimate the value of time off.It seems wrong to take even an afternoon off when the

76、re is so much opportunity,but think about how emotions and fatigue can cloud your judgment and wear you down.Ideally,youd be like a slot machine generating consistent profits,but youre human,and if youre not in a good mental and emotional state,you wont capitalize as much as you should.Take breaks t

77、o clear and re-energize your mind.How much depends on the person,but its generally more than youre taking now.Traders generally have high hopes of making lots of money in the market.They go in ready with all their strategies and may end up with a mix of wins and losses.Do you have any thoughts about

78、 traders who have a lot of hope?I have a very strong opinion about hope when it comes to trading:Forget hope.Theres no place for it.Hope is an emotion connected to things we cant control.If you go into the market hoping to make a lot of money,youre no different than someone buying a lottery ticket h

79、oping to hit the jackpot.Forget hope and pour yourself into developing an edge and controlling the things you canlike your preparation,decision-making and recognizing your emotions.You also work with professional poker players.Have you noticed similarities in the mindsets of top poker players and in

80、vestors?Absolutely.Poker and investing both require an ability to make high-stakes decisions with incomplete information.Q&A A Conversation with Jared TendlerMarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 17The best of the best in both poker and investing are just as driven,well-prepared and competitive as the best at

81、hletes in the world.You have to love what youre doing to be the best because its hard to reach that level!It requires long hours,poring through materials,analyzing your performance and looking for new ways to increase your edgeif you dont love poker or the markets,you simply wont dedicate yourself a

82、s much as those who do.Another big similarity between poker players and traders/investors is their ability to handle bad luck.There are very few endeavors where you can lose mon-ey while deploying a profitable strategy.Maintaining your confidence through periods of bad luck is a challenge.Suc-cessfu

83、l poker players and traders have mastered the art of knowing when to keep firing and when to adapt because something is legitimately not working.What are some common mental mis-takes you see people make across all the professions you coach?One of the biggest and most basic mental mistakes is thinkin

84、g you can always control your emotions,and its a myth.The emotional system is simply more powerful than the part of the brain responsible for controlling your emotions.You read that right.If anger,fear or greed become too intense,you will definitely make emotion-al decisions.It doesnt matter that yo

85、u know betteryour emotions will block you from translating that knowledge into action.When emotions become that in-tense,theyre in control,and youll make the same terrible decisions youve made many times before.Thats why I put so much emphasis on learning to recog-nize early signs that your emotions

86、 are rising.I go over a lot of this in my Trading Psychology Masterclass on my website,.Finally,whats the next profession or group of people youd like to coach and help improve mindset and per-formance?For example,can you help me become a Michelin star chef?Full disclosure:I burned toast this mornin

87、g.The Dalai Lama is a terrible golfer.No matter how much you master your mindset,it cant replace poor technique in golf,trading or the kitchen.Im not sure what the next group is going to be yet.Ive got my hands full with an influx of new trading clients since the book came out.I have thought about w

88、orking with salespeople.Ive worked with a few,and they keep saying how much of a mental game sales iswell see!nA Conversation with Jared Tendler Q&A182022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketSGood Trade/Bad TradeGOOD TRADE:Enphase Energy Inc(ENPH)The Timeframe:June 2022 September 2022Stock Background:Solar stocks

89、have had big moves this year.At the time of this trade,solar was a top-ranked group,and Enphase showed a lot of leadership action.Enphase had been on my watchlist for a while,but whats frightening about ENPH is its volatility.In just a few weeks before I bought it,it had climbed from 128 to 217thats

90、 a 70%move in about a months time!Even though ENPH had taken a hit in early 2022,it started to make a comeback and form a double-bottom base.In mid-May,the solar industry group was ranked 184 out of 197;by June,it had moved up to 83.Thats a group move that got my attention.As IBD research shows,indu

91、stry group and sector moves make up almost 50%of a stocks price movement,so you should always pay attention to a stocks fellow group mates.By the follow-through day on June 24,2022,ENPH had some of the best fundamentals in the group,with double-digit earnings and sales growth.Technical Picture:ENPH

92、started forming a double bottom base in April 2022,eventually breaking through the 192.90 pivot point on 5/31 before reversing lower intraday and closing below the pivot.A rollercoaster ride over the next two weeks led to a double-digit gain from the pivot point at one point,followed by a plunge bel

93、ow the 7-8%stop-loss zone(shaded in pink on MarketSmith).At that point,I was just happy I didnt buy on the breakout dayheres another example of ENPHs famous volatility.But why didnt I make that buy?Because it would have meant buying it after such a big move in a short time.Instead,I wanted to see it

94、 go sideways for a bit and digest those gains.My Buy Point:June 30,2022 at 198.ENPH came down from the pivot and tested the 50-day line.Then we got a follow-through day on June 24,which had me looking for some good setups to test the waters and increase my IBD Market Research DirectorTHE TRADERJusti

95、n NielsenGood Trade/Bad Trade Justin NielsenMarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 19Justin Nielsen Good Trade/Bad Tradeexposure.ENPH was showing strength following another bounce off the 50-day to rally back into the buy zone.I didnt fully trust the market conditions then,so when I bought ENPH on June 30,it w

96、asnt a full position.How I Held It:There were a few days when the stock fell sharply at the market open,but it recovered higher and closed in the upper part of the range.I set my alerts at the lows of these gap down days,but fortunately,they never retested them,which helped me hold through these ear

97、ly shakeouts.On 7/15,the stock went through a nasty shakeout but made a solid recovery.The overall market indexes also started recovering,which gave the stock a nice tailwind.I hadnt been too excited about holding through earnings this year,but in this case,I had a 10%cushion to withstand a potentia

98、l hit,and the solar group was cranking at#3 of 197.ENPH was showing leadership,which gave me the conviction to hold.I got my reward for holding when the stock gapped up 17.9%after the earnings announcement.On 7/28,I was up about 40%from my buy point,so I sold 1/3 of my shares at 280.The stock was st

99、ill going strong,so part of me wanted to wait for a bigger move.I used the 21-day exponential moving average as my line in the sand to close the whole position while selling some shares into strength along the way.My Sell Point:September 1,2022 at 275.Speaking of the 21-day line:ENPH closed just bel

100、ow it on 9/1,so I sold whatever shares I had left.Granted,at a lower price than Id had the month before,but that can happen when you try to hold for a bigger move.ENPH later made another crazy move up to 324 but retested the 21-day line and crashed to the 250 level.You know what they say about flyin

101、g too close to the sunjust ask Icarus.My 3 Takeaways:Sell into Strength:Take some of your shares off the table and sell into strength!You dont have to sell your full position,but no one ever went broke taking profits.Follow the Leaders:Stick with leading stocks in leading groupstheyll be your bigges

102、t winners.Proceed with Caution:Volatile stocks can be much more challenging to handle,so make sure you know your stocks volatility profiles and handle them accordingly.Or avoid them if thats not your style.202022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketSBAD TRADE:Nvidia(NVDA)The Timeframe:December 2021 January 2022Sto

103、ck Background:This is a stock Ive played several times.Nvidia is a great company that made a name for itself by creating sophisticated semiconductor chips that can conduct trillions of calculations per second,which is crucial for gaming and cryptocurrency mining.After the pandemic started in 2020,bo

104、red-at-home gamers and crypto miners snatched up video cards with Nvidia GPUs at a feverish pace,leading to widespread shortages and a resale market where cards would sell at prices 2-3x above retail.If thats not strong demand,I dont know what is.In 2021,this megacap was getting a lot of additional

105、buzz from its possibilities in the metaverse,even though its chips were already powering self-driving cars,AI and machine learning.Needless to say,Nvidia has irons in several fires in the future tech space.I originally bought NVDA in May 2021 and then added to my position multiple times in July,Augu

106、st and September 2021.I sold my whole position in NVDA on a break of the 10-week line in early October while it went into base-building mode.I had a nice profit from May to September and loved the story,so naturally,I wanted back in.Unfortunately,I didnt buy it during the breakout on 10/22/21,so I m

107、issed out on a big runup to 346 on 11/22/21.NVDA stock topped that day,the same day the Nasdaq hit its all-time highprobably not a coincidence for an index thats top-heavy in tech stocks.By December 2021,I had no position in this market leader,and I was eager to return to the well and try to make mo

108、ney on it again.NVDA was a bit of a revenge trade for me since I missed the October breakout.In hindsight,it was a little like me yelling at the stock,“Ill teach you for making me a profit!”Technical Picture:In December 2021,NVDA had no base to speak ofjust a sloppy sideways-to-down trend.With no co

109、nstructive consolidation,I was looking at a pullback to the 50-day line and a bounce back above it as an entry point.NVDA closed down 6.75%on 12/13/21 at the very low end of its range with+47%average volume,although it was still above its 50-day line.However,that cushion above the 50-day line was di

110、sappearing.Had the 50-day line not been able to offer enough support,I wouldve expected more weakness and a continued fall from its boomtime highs.Good Trade/Bad Trade Justin NielsenMarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 21My Buy Point:December 15,2021 at 305.On this day,NVDA bounced back big time from the 50-

111、day line to close up 7.49%at the top of the rangeand I was ready to get back in it.So,I bought a bit more as it bounced off the 50-day again on 12/21/21,then added even more on 1/3/22,which was about the same price as my initial purchase.At this point,I had accumulated the same number of shares as I

112、d had back in September 2021 but at a much higher price.NVDA quickly became one of my largest positions,taking up 13-14%of my total portfolio.How I Held It:Considering I didnt yet have any gains on NVDA,I was a little nervous about adding more shares.I came to my senses pretty quickly when it broke

113、the 50-day line on 1/4/22,so without waiting too long into the trading session,I sold half my position at 286.I realized I wasnt handling my position rightI had this great stock,but Id missed a big move.I was forcing it by getting back into a subpar setup that produced weak price action.But it still

114、 hadnt hit my 271 stop(which would make for a 10%loss).I made the mistake of using a 10%stop-loss on a larger position size,which is a recipe for getting hurt.Because my position was too large for that,I decided to trim it by half and hold it for a longer move in a way that I could manage it.My Sell

115、 Point:January 5,2021 at 280.The day after I trimmed my position,things started to get ugly.The Nasdaq suffered a 3.3%drop,and NVDA dropped even more(5.76%).I didnt wait around until the end of the day to sell the rest of my position and walked away with a loss on one of the biggest winning stocks o

116、f the past five years.My 3 Takeaways:Dont live in the past.I was trying to capture a move that had already passed.If you miss the bus,dont try to chase after itjust wait for the next one.Youll still get where you want to go eventuallyand youll end up a lot less tired and sweaty.Size your positions c

117、orrectly.I kept adding to my position even when the stock hadnt shown any progress.NVDA quickly became too big of a part of my portfolio to manage well.Dont average down.Add to a position when youre making gains,and the market is giving you feedback that youre correct.Averaging down,a/k/a“buying on

118、sale,”is a myth that can really hurt short-and medium-term traders.nJustin Nielsen Good Trade/Bad Trade222022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketS22Good Trade/Bad Trade Justin NielsenBought:198Sold 1/3:280Sold remainingshares:275GOOD TRADE:Enphase Energy(ENPH)MarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 2323Justin Nielsen Good Tr

119、ade/Bad TradeSold 1/2:286Bought:305Sold 1/2:280BAD TRADE:NVIDIA(NVDA)242022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketS24Visit I to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.Stock Screen Goldilocks Technical SetupsScreen created by Justin Nielsen,IBD Market Research

120、 DirectorCOMPANY(SYMBOL)INDUSTRY GROUPCOMP RATINGCatalyst Pharma Inc(CPRX)Medical-Biomed/Biotech99Petroleo Bras Sa Ptr Adr(PBR)Oil&Gas-Integrated99Conocophillips(COP)Oil&Gas-Intl Expl&Prod99Denbury Inc(DEN)Oil&Gas-U S Expl&Prod99Devon Energy Corp(DVN)Oil&Gas-U S Expl&Prod99Harmonic Inc(HLIT)Telecom-

121、Cable/Satl Eqp99This screen has a couple of loose fundamental requirements like Composite Rating and SMR Rating,but apart from that,its entirely based on technical characteristics to get a sense of which stocks are“working.”We called it“Goldilocks”because all the positions of the moving average line

122、s have to be just rightthe stock is above the 200-day line,close to or above the 50-day line and not too extended above the 10-day line.When you add in a strong 3-month Relative Strength Rating,the result is a smaller universe of stocks in a potential sweet spot.Goldilocks Technical Setups*All scree

123、n results are computer-generated and were run on October 24,2022.MarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 25Goldilocks Technical Setups Stock ScreenCatalyst Pharma Inc(CPRX)Real-time prices by Nasdaq Last Sale.Real-time quote and/or trade prices are not sourced from all markets.Ownership data provided by Refinit

124、iv and Estimate data provided by FactSet.marketsmithi 2022 Investors Business Daily,LLC.All rights reserved.+0.60+4.44%$14.00V olume 2,340,400-34%Last Updated:4:00 PM ET 10/24/2251015PriceScale796,0001,940,0004,750,00011,600,000VolumeDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOct0292612291

125、50082508DEVELOPS PRESCRIPTION DRUGS FOR NEUROMUSCULAR AND NEUROLOGIC AL DISEASES AND DISORDERS.Catalyst Pharma Inc(CPRX)NASDAQ Medical-Biomed/Biotech(6/197)Average Daily Volume 3,564,29%12.0817.2215.078.307.035.247.586.6013.4011.676.157.426.307.908.647.117.356.335.67

126、28.3M4.4M2.6M2.7M4.9M2.1M3.4M3.8M3.0MRS Rating990S&P5EPS+75%EPS+64%EPS+30%EPS+17%0.14vs0.12+17%36.0vs29.3+23%+30.7%Qtr Ended September 30,20210.13vs0.10+30%38.3vs31.0+24%+31.3%Qtr Ended December 31,20210.18vs0.11+64%43.1vs30.2+43%+33.6%Qtr Ended March 31,20220.28vs0.16+75%53.1vs36.4+46%+37.7%Qtr End

127、ed June 30,2022EPS Due 11/9e*Earnings($)Sales($Mil)Return on Equity+62%from Pivot in 70 daysReal-time prices by Nasdaq Last Sale.Real-time quote and/or trade prices are not sourced from all markets.Ownership data provided by Refinitiv and Estimate data provided by FactSet.2022 Investors Business Dai

128、ly,LLC.All rights reserved.262022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketSPetroleo Bras Sa Ptr Adr(PBR)Real-time prices by Nasdaq Last Sale.Real-time quote and/or trade prices are not sourced from all markets.Ownership data provided by Refinitiv and Estimate data provided by FactSet.marketsmithi 2022 Investors Busine

129、ss Daily,LLC.All rights reserved.-1.86-11.59%$14.19V olume 60,494,700+88%Last Updated:4:00 PM ET 10/24/226810121416PriceScale22,000,00035,000,00055,700,00088,600,000VolumeDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOct029263200622082508BRAZIL-BASED COMPANY E

130、NGAGED IN THE EXPLORATION,REFINING,P RODUCTION,AND DISTRIBUTION OF OIL ANPetroleo Bras Sa Ptr Adr(PBR)NYSE Oil&Gas-Integrated(28/197)Average Daily Volume 32,147,20%15.4512.3610.588.0011.858.939.6411.548.869.159.837.497.276.065.867.0163.2M44.9M90.0M75.8M65.7M87.3M56.7M96.7M140.9MRS Rating980S&P5EPS D

131、ue10 DaysEPS+111%EPS+999%EPS-51%EPS+999%0.88vs-0.04#+999%22.3vs12.6+77%+49.7%Qtr Ended September 30,20210.87vs1.77-51%24.1vs14.4+67%+31.2%Qtr Ended December 31,20212.53vs0.03+999%29.9vs15.3+95%+41.2%Qtr Ended March 31,20222.78vs1.32+111%32.5vs22.3+46%+41%Qtr Ended June 30,2022EPS Due 11/3*Earnings($

132、)Sales($Bil)Return on Equity-8%from Pivot in 2 daysReal-time prices by Nasdaq Last Sale.Real-time quote and/or trade prices are not sourced from all markets.Ownership data provided by Refinitiv and Estimate data provided by FactSet.2022 Investors Business Daily,LLC.All rights reserved.Stock Screen G

133、oldilocks Technical SetupsMarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 27Conocophillips(COP)Real-time prices by Nasdaq Last Sale.Real-time quote and/or trade prices are not sourced from all markets.Ownership data provided by Refinitiv and Estimate data provided by FactSet.marketsmithi 2022 Investors Business Daily,L

134、LC.All rights reserved.+0.65+0.52%$125.14V olume 5,655,300-21%Last Updated:4:00 PM ET 10/24/2280100120PriceScale4,570,0006,950,00010,600,00016,100,000VolumeDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOct029263200622082508ENGAGED IN EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION

135、 OF CRUDE OIL AND NATUR AL GAS IN 17 COUNTRIES.Conocophillips(COP)NYSE Oil&Gas-Intl Expl&Prod(8/197)Average Daily Volume 7,215,98.46118.39115.4788.77104.11107.5294.9378.7875.9668.2477.98104.7678.30124.0896.8292.32104.4485.2966.068.3M10.8M11.9M14.6M24.5M17.3M11.9M17.2M13.3M22.9M15.7M15.9MRS Rating980

136、S&P5EPS Due10 DaysEPS+208%EPS+374%EPS+999%EPS+671%1.77vs-0.31#+671%11.6vs4.4+165%+12.5%Qtr Ended September 30,20212.27vs-0.19#+999%16.0vs6.0+164%+19.3%Qtr Ended December 31,20213.27vs0.69+374%19.3vs10.6+83%+25.2%Qtr Ended March 31,20223.91vs1.27+208%22.0vs10.2+115%+31.6%Qtr Ended June 30,2022EPS Due

137、 11/3*Earnings($)Sales($Bil)Return on Equity+8%from Pivot in 29 daysReal-time prices by Nasdaq Last Sale.Real-time quote and/or trade prices are not sourced from all markets.Ownership data provided by Refinitiv and Estimate data provided by FactSet.2022 Investors Business Daily,LLC.All rights reserv

138、ed.Goldilocks Technical Setups Stock Screen282022 Q4 Stock Guide MarketSMarketSmith Features HighlightsFEATURES HIGHLIGHTSBarrons 400,Updated Lists and Earnings AlertsBarrons 400 Index List Weve added a new“Barrons 400”report to MarketSmith.This is a stock market index of 400 public companies in the

139、 United States,as selected by editors and associates of Barrons magazine,based on fundamental criteria including return on investment,growth,market value,profits and cash flow.Check it out by opening up the bottom List Panel and going to Reports Stocks.Updates to Three Stock Lists Recently,weve clea

140、ned up outdated items from RS Line Blue Dot,All RS Line New High and Bases Forming premium lists,and implemented a shorter archiving time logic to make list results more relevant and concise.MarketS 2022 Q4 Stock Guide 29Features Highlights MarketSmithEarnings Reports Alerts Earnings have become a q

141、uarter-by-quarter game,so its vital to stay on top of your stocks that could gap up or down after their earnings reports.Remember to use the MarketSmith earnings reports email alerts.Subscribers can get Earnings Price Gaps and Earnings Upcoming notifications via email by clicking the Bell icon in th

142、e top-right corner of the chart interface and going to the Event Alerts tab.From there,you can check the box next to which alerts youd like to receive.The reports are also available through the Open Stock Ideas button on desktop/mobile and the Reports section in the bottom List Panel.n 2022 Investor

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148、by Investors Business Daily,LLC.Advance your trading knowledge with IBDs full suite of online courses led by our trusted investing experts!IBDs online courses make it easy to level up your investing game while leading a busy lifeyou set the pace and schedule.Plus,access these essential lessons anytime from any device by logging into .Ready to learn how to make more money in the stock market?PO Box 92042 Los Angeles,CA 90009STOCK GUIDE 2022 Q4STOCK MARKET PSYCHOLOGY:The Mental Side of Trading