1、Copyright 2019 GSM Association The Mobile Economy 2019 The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting more than 750 operators with over 350 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers an
2、d internet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces the industry-leading MWC events held annually in Barcelona, Los Angeles and Shanghai, as well as the Mobile 360 Series of regional conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA corpor
3、ate website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide &nb
4、sp;from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry pla
5、yers, to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry
6、topics. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2 1THE MOBILE MARKET IN NUMBERS10 1.1Key milestones11 1.2Where will the next 710 million come from?12 1.34G takes the lead, while 5G launches begin13 1.4Consumers transition from connected to digital15 1.5Financial pressures continue, but outlook improv
7、ing18 2MOBILE CONTRIBUTING TO ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ADDRESSING SOCIAL CHALLENGES 19 2.1Mobile contribution to economic growth20 2.2Expanding the benefits of the mobile internet24 2.3Mobile delivering social impact30 3KEY TRENDS SHAPING THE MOBILE INDUSTRY32 3.1The 5G era is here: where is the money?33
8、 3.2IoT: seizing a share of the trillion-dollar opportunity35 3.3Content: operators seeking to capitalise on rapidly evolving ecosystem40 3.4AI: transforming telcos43 3.5Devices: onset of a third wave focused on AI and immersive entertainment45 4POLICIES FOR DIGITAL ADVANCEMENT49 4.1Laying the regul
9、atory groundwork50 4.2Regulatory reforms for the digital age51 Executive Summary The Mobile Economy 2019 Executive Summary 2 5G is here: opportunity awaits 5G is now upon us, bringing with it the promise of a host of exciting new services. As the boundaries between mobile and the w
10、ider digital ecosystem continue to blur, and as data monetisation poses a continued challenge, many operators are moving beyond their traditional telco businesses to explore new opportunities in a fast-changing competitive landscape: IoT: between 2018 and 2025, the number of global IoT connections w
11、ill triple to 25 billion, while global IoT revenue will quadruple to $1.1 trillion. With connectivity becoming increasingly commoditised, mobile operators are looking to expand their role in the value chain from providing essential tools and capabilities for ecosystem partners to build IoT sol
12、utions, to becoming end-to-end IoT solution providers themselves. Content: the content sector is undergoing significant transformation driven by shifting consumer behaviour, new players and changing content production and distribution models. To benefit from an unprecedented level of content consump
13、tion, an increasing number of telecoms operators are entering the content space or strengthening their existing content offerings, through vertical integration, partnerships with OTT video service providers or creating content themselves. Artificial intelligence: AI will be key to future business an
14、d digital transformation. It will drive increasingly autonomous and intelligent networks and improve customer experience through greater learning of customer behaviour. Operators across the globe are growing their focus on AI, with AI-based applications including chatbots and digital assistant
15、s, network operation/planning, customer care, advertising and AI as a service. Devices: while their ubiquity means smartphones remain the focal point of the consumer internet economy, the range of connected devices (and therefore internet access channels) is greater than ever. In the most advanced c
16、ountries, todays digital consumers (using PCs and smartphones) will likely become tomorrows augmented customers, adopting emerging technologies such as AI (via smart speakers) and immersive reality. Over the coming years, these new opportunities have the potential to provide an uplift to mobile oper
17、ator revenue which, particularly in developed markets, is still under pressure from slowing unique subscriber growth, regulatory intervention and intense competition. The US is already seeing early signs of this uplift: modest revenue growth is returning after a difficult 2017, largely due to mobile
18、 operators aggressively pursuing new incremental revenue opportunities in content, IoT and 5G. Overall, the global revenue outlook remains positive, with an annual average growth rate of 1.4% between 2018 and 2025. The Mobile Economy 2019 Executive Summary 3 In 2018, 4G overtook 2G to become t
19、he leading mobile technology across the world, with 3.4 billion connections accounting for 43% of the total (excluding licensed cellular IoT). With growth continuing apace, particularly across developing markets, 4G will soon become the dominant mobile technology, surpassing half of global mobile co
20、nnections in 2019 and reaching 60% in 2023. Meanwhile, 5G is now a reality. Following commercial launches in the US and South Korea towards the end of 2018, 16 more major countries will have launched 5G networks by the end of 2019. In parallel, 5G smartphones are set to be released in the first half
21、 of the year and WRC-19 in October/November will have an impact on the future of 5G. While it will take some time for 5G to hit critical mass, some markets will see relatively rapid growth (for example, South Korea, US and Japan). Three factors will affect the speed at which 5G is adopted and
22、the value that it will generate: the opportunities for value generation, cost considerations and deployment dependencies. To support this generational shift and further drive consumer engagement in the digital era, mobile operators will invest around $480 billion worldwide between 2018 and 2020 in m
23、obile capex. Half of this will be from countries expected to have launched 5G by 2020. However, since the majority of 5G deployments will happen post-2020 (64 markets over the 20212025 period, bringing the total to 116), we expect capex then to grow above the approximately $160 billion expected in 2
24、020. 4G takes the lead, while commercial 5G is now a reality By the end of 2018, 5.1 billion people around the world subscribed to mobile services, accounting for 67% of the global population. A total of 1 billion new subscribers have been added in the four years since 2013 (representing an average
25、annual growth rate of 5%), but the speed of growth is slowing. An average annual growth rate of 1.9% between 2018 and 2025 will bring the total number of mobile subscribers to 5.8 billion (71% of the population). Of the 710 million people expected to subscribe to mobile services for the first time o
26、ver the next seven years, half will come from the Asia Pacific region and just under a quarter will come from Sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, mobile continues to make a significant contribution to socioeconomic development around the world. In 2018, mobile technologies and services generated $3.9 tri
27、llion of economic value (4.6% of GDP) globally, a contribution that will reach $4.8 trillion (4.8% of GDP) by 2023 as countries increasingly benefit from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by increased take-up of mobile services. Further ahead, 5G technologies
28、are expected to contribute $2.2 trillion to the global economy over the next 15 years. The connectivity gap also continues to close: over the next seven years, 1.4 billion people will start using the mobile internet for the first time, bringing the total number of mobile internet subscribers globall
29、y to 5 billion by 2025 (over 60% of the population). This growth in connectivity is helping the mobile industry increase its impact across all the UNs Sustainable Development Goals and is spurring adoption of mobile-based tools and solutions (for example, in agriculture, education and healthca
30、re) that aim to improve livelihoods in low- to middle- income countries. Some 700 million new mobile subscribers by 2025 The Mobile Economy 2019 Executive Summary 4 Advanced mobile networks are a critical component of the digital future, and governments must play their part. The mo
31、bile industry urges governments to set enabling policies for 5G and to reform regulatory frameworks no longer suited to todays digital economy. The first priority is to allocate sufficient spectrum for 5G. Compared with previous mobile generations, 5G requires larger contiguous blocks of spectrum in
32、 the mid-range (e.g. 3.5 GHz) and mmWave (e.g. 26 GHz) frequency bands to achieve its potential. Additionally, given 5Gs need for network densification, governments are encouraged to adopt a national code for new mobile sites and modification of existing sites, and should facilitate access to
33、public sites (e.g. buildings and street furniture) for operators to deploy network equipment. Besides 5G, there remains a need in most countries to modernise regulatory frameworks for the mobile sector. The world has changed, and regulation needs to advance with the times. Authorities should be look
34、ing at two key areas for review and reform: firstly, regulatory frameworks should be reviewed and updated to promote market dynamism, competition and consumer welfare, while discarding legacy rules that are no longer relevant in the context of the digital ecosystem. Secondly, governments should redu
35、ce the sector-specific tax burden to encourage investment in new technologies. By setting the right regulatory context, governments create incentives for technological innovation and investment that benefit all of society. Enabling policies for digital advancement The Mobile Economy 2019 Executive S
36、ummary 5 Global market Unique mobile subscribers SIM connections Operator revenues and investment Excluding cellular IoT 7.9bn 9.2bn 5.1bn 5.8bn 67% 1.9% Mobile internet users 3.6bn 5.0bn PENETRATION RATE 2018 2018 2018 2018 2025 2025 2025 $1.03tn $1.14tn 4.8% 2.2% CAGR 201825 CAGR 201825 CAGR
37、 201825 4.8% (% of population) 71% 103% PENETRATION RATE (% of population) 112% 2025 Operator capex of $321 billion for the period 20192020 of GDP 14m directly supported by the mobile ecosystem 9.1bn25.2bn 20182025Total connections 47% PENETRATION RATE (% of population) 61% 1.4bn +17m in
38、direct jobs Jobs EmploymentPublic funding Mobile ecosystem contribution to public funding (before regulatory and spectrum fees) $4.8tn $3.9tn Mobile industry contribution to GDP $510bn 2018 2023 Internet of Things *Excluding cellular IoT 60% 79% % of connections* 2018 2025 2018 2018 Smartphones % of
39、 connections* of connections* 43%59%20182025 4G 15% 2025 5G $1.03tn $1.14tn 4.8% 2.2% CAGR 201825 CAGR 201825 CAGR 201825 4.8% (% of population) 71% 103% PENETRATION RATE (% of population) 112% 4.6% 2025 Operator capex of $321 billion for the period 20192020 of GDP 14m directly sup
40、ported by the mobile ecosystem 9.1bn25.2bn 20182025Total connections 15%5% 13% 67% Asia Pacific CIS World 4G 5G 2G 3G TECHNOLOGY MIX* 2025 82% 79% 72% 71% 2018 2018 2018 2018 2025 2025 2025 2025 66% 67% 54% 60% 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATION SUBSCRIB
41、ER PENETRATION TECHNOLOGY MIX* 41% 25% 2025 34% 73% 82% 2018 2018 2025 2025 80% 53% 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* 2025 82% 88% 2018 2018 2025 2025 85% 72% 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* 2025 Europe 2018 29% 28% 43% 5% 20%
42、 59% 15% 2018 45% 34% 21% 18% 68% 12%2% 19% 36% 45% 2018 63% 7% 1% 29% 2018 18% 36% 46% The Mobile Economy 2019 Executive Summary 8 79% 74% 2018 2018 2025 2025 67% 65% 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* 2025 74% 69% 2018 2018 2025 2025 64% 52% 4G 5G 2G 3G SMA
43、RTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* 2025 90% 85% 2018 2018 2025 2025 83% 80% 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* 2025 66% 51% 2018 2018 2025 2025 45% 36% 4G 5G 2G 3G SMARTPHONE ADOPTION SUBSCRIBER PENETRATIONTECHNOLOGY MIX* 2025 MENA North America
44、 Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa *% of mobile connections excluding cellular IoT 21% 65% 8% 5% 26% 39% 35% 2018 10% 32% 52% 6% 23% 37% 40%2018 44% 7% 2%47% 2018 9% 21% 69% 59% 24%3% 14% 2018 6% 59% 35% The Mobile Economy 2019 Executive Summary 9 01 The mobile market in numbers The mobile mark
45、et in numbers 10 The Mobile Economy 2019 Mobile subscribers approach 6 billion by 2025 Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 1 1.1 Key milestones 20025 Over 5 billion smartphone connections Smartphones account for 60% of connections 9 billion IoT connections 10 billion IoT connections 7 b
46、illion smartphone connections Smartphones account for nearly 80% of connections 25 billion IoT connections 4G accounts for half of total connections MBB covers 90% of population 4G overtakes 2G to be leading technology Early 5G launches 5G launches gain momentum 1.4 billion 5G connections 5G covers
47、1/3 of population Almost of countries have launched 5G Over 70% of the population are mobile subscribers Nearly 6 billion unique subscribers 5 billion mobile internet users Over 5 billion unique subscribers 3.6 billion mobile internet users Almost of population are mobile internet users
48、 SUBSCRIBERS DEVICES TECHNOLOGY The mobile market in numbers 11 The Mobile Economy 2019 Some 700 million new subscribers by 2025; half from Asia Pacific Seven countries will account for half of new subscribers Source: GSMA Intelligence Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 2 Figure 3 1.2 Where
49、 will the next 710 million come from? Million 7108 14 22 69 72 165 359 Percentage of global new additions by 2025 1 India 2 China 3 Pakistan 4 Nigeria 5 Indonesia 6 USA 7 Brazil Total new subscribers by 2025 CISEuropeNorthern America Latin America MENASub- Saharan Africa Asia Pacific 24%8%4%4%3%3%3%
50、 The mobile market in numbers 12 The Mobile Economy 2019 4G took the lead in 2018 and will exceed half of connections in 2019 Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 4 1.3 4G takes the lead, while 5G launches begin Percentage of connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT) 5G 2G 4G 3G 15% 5% 59% 20% 200022202320242025 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% The mobile market in numbers 13 The Mobile Economy 2019 The US, East Asian and European markets will lead 5
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