1、LUXURY GOODS WORLDWIDE MARKET STUDY, SPRING 2019 CLAUDIA DARPIZIO | FEDERICA LEVATO 2 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET IN 2018 CONFIRMED THE “NEW NORMAL” STARTED IN 2017 Democratization“Sortie du temple”CrisisChinese bulimiaReboot New normal +6% 96 -18 CAGR +3% +6% 1
2、7 -18 Y oY Current Exch. rate Constant Exch. rate 3 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL STRONG 2018 HOLIDAY SEASON ALMOST EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE WORLD TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF AMERICAN CONSUMERS SPENDING TOURISM ACCELERATION FUELING POSITIVE GROWTH FOR EUROPE CHINESE CONSUMERS CONFIRMED AS KEY MARKET
3、ENGINE Chinese consumers driving market growth: accelerations in domestic spending, at the expense of its neighbors, Hong Kong and Macau Uncertainties on US China trade war causing continuing decline in Asian travel to the US Weakening of the Euro against all major currencies causing increased touri
4、st inflows to Continental Europe Positive final quarter for the region, although with differences across countries: Brexit in UK and continuous socio-political protests in France represent potential risks for the future of the region Ongoing changes in US tax plan creating temporal uncertainties, ne
5、gatively impacting consumer spending on personal luxury goods Malls and department stores underperforming as traffic continues to decline, while monobrand stores maintain a positive growth trend 4 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL POSITIVE Q1 2019 PERFORMANCE, WITH CHINESE SPENDING DYNAMICS FUELI
6、NG GLOBAL LUXURY SCENE 8%+5%+Q1 2019 at current exchange rates at constant exchange rates Leather and Jewelry maintaining a sustained pace of growth, with positive momentum for handbags as well Beauty confirming positive 2018 trend, with solid growth in skin-care and make-up partially offset by mild
7、 performance in fragrances Apparel still sluggish, with menswear segment showing signs of a re-start Watches on hesitant recovery, with mixed trends across regions: Hong Kong still suffering, while Europe (and UK) on a positive trend /+ + + + EUROPE AMERICAS JAPAN ASIA ROW - Fragmented performances
8、across EU, with impact of socio-political turmoil in UK and France partially offsetting higher tourism spending in the Eurozone Promising rise in domestic consumption on full-price stores, despite a declining flow of Chinese tourists Mild growth, still fueled by Chinese consumers China dominating th
9、e luxury scene, with Hong Kong and Macau losing ground Mixed performances in Middle East: soft but positive re-awakening of Dubai, with Qatar and Saudi showing weak tourism luxury spending ACCESSORIES off-price channel suffering from lower footfall, sign of an uncertain aspirational customer On the
10、radar: evolving US China trade agreements pose potential risk to luxury consumers confidence in the coming months Mexico on the rise; Canada still on a positive trend, thanks to favorable exchange rate boosting local consumption and offsetting reduction in tourist purchases Differences across countr
11、ies in domestic consumptions; regional performance increasingly stimulated by tourists inflows and spending due to weakening currency Weakening macro-economic outlook, political evolution following recent elections and unclear development on Brexit agreement potentially damaging overall confidence o
12、f local consumers towards luxury spending Price harmonization, consumer-centered strategies and governmental initiatives continuing to favor local purchases: cross-border luxury shopping still on a declining trend, yet relevant in Europe due to exchange rate effect Solid consumer confidence and will
13、ingness to buy, especially among young generations, sustaining luxury purchases; digital channel providing an extra boost 6 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL 2019 FULL-YEAR OUTLOOK BY REGION (2/2) REST OF ASIA JAPAN REST OF WORLD Positive growth trend across the entire region, except in Hong Kong
14、 and Macau, impacted by reduced tourist spending (mainly from Chinese) Expanding middle classs disposable income fueling growth in SEA countries: Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam in the spotlight Sustained growth in S. Korea, particularly in downtown locations, primarily fueled by local consumers,
15、 with a mild but encouraging rebound of tourist flows Japan maintaining its exclusivity: boost in travel retail favored by the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games, with Chinese tourists confirming their interests in the region Increasing average ticket as new rich from SEA still prefer splurging in Japan due t
16、o more product choice: creation of new routes for grey market Ikina-rich on the rise: young tech entrepreneurs less interested in ostentatious luxury and more in experiences Confirmed uncertainties across Middle East: domestic consumer spending flowing outside region as currency appreciates; e-comme
17、rce and soft luxury registering positive acceleration Growth in Australia slowing down as foreign purchase restrictions and capital controls raise in China Newly emerging economies still timid in showing their potential, mainly due to infrastructural gaps 7 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL GLOBA
18、L LUXURY GOODS GROWTH IN 2019 EXPECTED STEADY, CONFIRMING THE RESPECTIVE GROWTH CONTRIBUTION OF THE VARIOUS REGIONS EUROPE AMERICAS JAPAN REST OF THE WORLD MAINLAND CHINA REST OF ASIA (EXCLUDING M. CHINA) +1/ 3%+ +2/ 4%+ -2/0% +18/ 20%+ +2/ 4%+ 2019F GLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET +4/6%+ AT CON
19、STANT EXCHANGE RATES Note: Figures refer to growth ranges at constant exchange rate +10/ 12%+ 8 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL SOLID MID-TERM GROWTH TO 2025, DRIVEN BY POSITIVE FUNDAMENTALS, WITH SOME POSSIBLE BUMPS ALONG THE ROAD +3 / 5 % 19E25F CAGR K: growth at constant exchange rates +4/6%
20、 k +6% k Personal luxury goods market forecast | B2025 Personal luxury goods market trends Chinese customers will account for 45%+ of the global market, with half of their luxury purchases happening in Mainland China Online channel representing 25% of global market value, with 100% of luxury purchas
21、es digitally enabled New generations (Y+Z) delivering 130% of future market growth Digital penetration fostering store network consolidation and leading to a radical change in physical stores role Cultures/sub-cultures and new consumption trends will arise YZ 9 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL U
22、NDER THE SURFACE OF A NEW NORMAL PHASE OF MARKET GROWTH: NEXT GEN LUXURY IS ARISING NEW-GENERATIONPOST-OWNERSHIPAFTER-LIFEBEYOND-PHYSICAL Chinese Gen Z - the “segment to watch”: significant spending force, impulse buyers, proud and empowered Paradigm shift in consumption favoring access over ownersh
23、ip (e.g. Rental) Accelerating 2ndhand market favored by digital players with global scale Sustainability, Social responsibility and Circular fashion as a new mantra: new vision for the environment, for human labor and animal welfare Digital disrupting the entire luxury value chain and asking for a h
24、olistic redesign of the entire technology eco-system Experience and eco- system over product ABOVE-VOLUME/PRICE Customer networks as the new and exponential measure of value, beyond product and brand 10 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL INSURGENT BRANDS AND BUSINESS MODELS ARE CHALLENGING THE RUL
25、ES OF THE GAME, ASKING ESTABLISHED BRANDS FOR A FULL TRANSFORMATION BRAND GROWTH PRODUCT OPERATING MODEL DISTRIBUTION BRAND AND MARKETING Hero product(s) Fast creativity- to-store Monthly novelty Episodic narratives Communities on shared values Real time and always-on Direct-to- customer Platforms 2
26、.0 Temporary activations Data-driven and automated Fit for purpose Micro-battles and test for results Creativity expanding beyond product in all business areas Creativity-led transformation needed for established luxury giants PEOPLE PASSION RESULTS! 12 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL Claudia D
27、Arpizio, Partner Bain & Company Luxury goods vertical Claudia has spent 25 years advising multinational luxury and fashion clients on everything from strategy and new product development to innovation and organizational change. She is the lead author of the Bain Luxury Study, one of the most cited s
28、ources of market information in the luxury industry. In 2009, Claudia was also recognized as one of the Top 25 Consultants in the World by Consulting Magazine. Federica Levato, Partner Bain & Company Luxury goods vertical Over the last 15 years, Federica has led more than 300 assignments in the fash
29、ion and luxury industry on issues relating to corporate and brand strategy, portfolio management, merchandising, retail and wholesale excellence, digital acceleration, millennial strategies, marketing and communication, and more. Alongside Claudia DArpizio, Federica is the co-author of the Bain Luxu
30、ry Study, one of the most cited sources of market information in the luxury industry. 13 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL BAIN CONTACTS For any questions or further discussion, please contact: Claudia DArpizio - Partner (Milan) - Email: Federica Levato - Partner (Milan) - Email: For a copy of th
31、e study, please contact: International press - Katie Ware ( or +1 646-562-8107) - Dan Pinkney ( or +1 646-562-8102) Italian press - Giulia Zanichelli ( or +39 02 58288 252) 14 190613 Bain Luxury Study . ENT_v1MIL METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY Bottom-up and top-down estimates Revenues at retail equivalent
32、 value Retail Wholesale Licenses PLAYER CONSOLIDATED SALES Retail Wholesale at retail value Licenses at retail value PLAYER SALES AT RETAIL VALUE + + + + Application of estimated mark ups by geography and category Application of estimated royalty rates and mark ups by geography and product category
33、Revenues at retail value represent total sales valued at retail price. Each player consolidated sales are retailized through the following methodology: Bottom-up Industry-specific (e.g. watches vs. beauty) data in the main geographical markets Comparison between market breakdown and turnover breakdown for key players Tens of industry experts interviews (top management of brands, distributors, department stores, ) Consistency check on the data and fine tuning Top-down We add brands individual retail values. .we cross check results PEOPLE PASSION RESULTS!
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