1、2024 World Economic Outlook1/25/2024Marubeni Research Institute(Translated from the original Japanese version released at the end of December 2023(slightly updated)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Major Countries/Main Points2 Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.While there will be a slo

2、wdown,major deterioration will be avoided-Situation in which the world economy lacks a driving force.World Real GDP Growth Rate31.2024 World EconomyThe worlds real GDP growth rate in 2024 is expected to come in at+2.9%.Although there will be a slowdown mainly in advanced economies throughthe first h

3、alf of the year,a significant economic downturn will be avoided.Demand in the U.S.unexpectedly swung upward in 2023,however,itshouldbe restrained in 2024 due to the existing tight monetary policy,Inflation in major developed economies will continue to trend lower nextyear.However,the decline in unde

4、rlying inflation relative to the compositeindex will lag,and it will take time for prices to stabilize at the Inflation policytarget of 2%.The U.S.policy interest rate(currently 5.25%-5.50%)will begin to be cutfrom mid-2024 but is expected to remain at the mid 4%level until the end of2024 as suggest

5、ed by the Federal Reserve(FRB).One risk factor is if themarkets view diverges from this by expecting rates to fall below 4%Duringthe same period.The restrained monetary climate should continue with ratecuts becoming more modest compared to the pace of decline in inflation.In China,the recovery in co

6、nsumption and investment is slowing as housingmarket corrections continue.In Japan,the focus will be on the momentumtoward wage hikes and tighter monetary policy revisions.In Europe,soaringprices have run their course,however,a recovery in personal consumptionwill likely be weak.The global economic

7、growth forecast for 2025 is 2.8%.Low growth will continue in the developed countries,while emerging and developingeconomies have yet to find a new driving force in the world economy to helppropel their economies.Sources:IMF,Marubeni Research Institute202242025ActualEstimateForecastForecas

8、tForecast6.33.43.02.92.85.62.61.61.41.3US5.81.92.51.61.4Euro Zone5.83.50.80.91.0UK7.54.10.10.50.5Japan calendar year2.61.02.00.91.3 fiscal year2.81.51.61.01.26.84.04.04.03.9China8.43.05.64.54.2India8.96.77.06.06.4ASEAN-53.95.44.24.54.5Middle East/Africa7.30.81.8n1.91.9Latin America7.24.12.32.30.6Mid

9、dle East/Central Asia4.46.21.33.43.7Sub-Saharan Africa4.74.03.33.94.1Q4 23Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 24U.S.1.81.00.80.71.0Germany0.20.40.60.81.0Japan 0.40.81.21.51.2China5.04.04.55.05.0ASEAN 5:Inonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,ThailandAdvanced EconomiesWorldNewly Emerging EconomiesYear(vs.prevoius year

10、)Quartely(vs same quarter previous year)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Timing of monetary policy shifts depends on inflation-Improvement in service prices essential for further decline in inflation2024 Main Points41.2024 World Economy-2.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.02019/12019/42019/72019/102020

11、/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10(%)米国圏日本Inflation in Europe and the U.S.rose sharply in 2021 before peaking in mid-2022 and then steadily declining in 2023.However,the rate still remains higher than the 2%inflation target of the central

12、 banks.If there is confidence though that the inflation will continue to fall toward the 2%target in 2024.monetary policy changes will/likely takeplace.The decline inflation so far has been mainly due to a subsiding in goods,food and energy prices.However,for inflation to further fall it is essentia

13、l that service prices(particularly core services excluding housing costs)improve.Consumer Price Index Trends(CPI)Composition of U.S.Personal Consumption Expenditure DeflatorSource:Marubeni Research Institute from each countrys dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from U.S.Commerce Department data

14、2.00.02.04.06.08.010.02019/12019/42019/72019/102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10財（除住居費）住居費食品誤差PCE(vs previous year,%contribution in%points）2%inflation targetU.S.Euro Zone Japancore goodscore serviceshousing costsfoodenergydeviationPC

15、E deflator Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.3 interest rate cuts expected in 2024 U.S.Monetary Policy Outlook5The guidance range for the U.S.policy interest rate(FF rate)at the end of 2023 was 5.25%-5.50%.However,the Federal Open Market Committee members predictinterest rates will start fall

16、ing in 2024 eventually reaching 4.6%by the end of the year.On the other hand,the financial market sees a scenario where interest rates cuts begin in the 1st half of 2024 and fall below 4%by the end of 2024,representing adivergent view from that of the FOMC members.U.S.Policy Interest(FF Interest Rat

17、e)FOMC Members Economic and Price Outlook(December)Note:Bold figures in the table are the members median predictions.The figures in parentheses are the previous years forecast.The real GDP growth rate and price inflation rate for the October-December period is versus the previous year,while the unem

18、ployment rate is the average for the same period.Source:Marubeni Corporation based in FRB data2023202420252026Long-termReal GDPGrowth Rate2.61.41.81.91.8(2.1)(1.5)(1.8)（1.8）(1.8)UnemploymentRate3.84.14.14.14.1(3.8)(4.1)(4.1)(4.0)(4.0)PCE Price Index Inflation Rate2.82.42.12.02.0(3.3)(2.5)(2.2)(2.0)(

19、2.0)Core PCE Price Index Inflation Rate3.22.42.22.0(3.7)(2.6)(2.3)(2.0)FF Policy InterestRate Level5.44.63.62.92.5(5.6)(5.1)(3.9)(2.9)(2.5)(unit:%)0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/102024/12024/42024/72024/10市場予想（12/14）FOMC参加者24年末見通（注1）(%)market forecast rate(no

20、te 2)1.2024 World Economymarket forecast(12/14)FOMC members forecast(note 1)Note 1:FOMC members median FF interest rate forecast at the end of 2024(as of the December 2023 meeting).Note 2:Policy interest rate expectations factored into the FF rate futures marketSource:Marubeni Research Institute bas

21、ed on FRB,CME Group data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.0.880.930.981.031.081.0224米国圏英国日本（2019=1.00）Marked upturn in the U.S.economyLooking Back at 202362.U.S.EconomyU.S economys resilience stands out:The U.S.economy outperformed the other major industrialized countri

22、es during the recovery period from the Covid crisis.In 2023,asthe economic slowdown intensified in many developed countries the United States maintained a growth trajectory that exceeded its potential growth rate(US CongressionalBudget Office estimate:approximately 1.8%).Domestic demand strong:Looki

23、ng at demand by item,we can see that domestic demand,led by personal consumption which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP,drovethe U.S.economy in 2023 which performed better than expected.1.00 Real GDP Recovers to Pre-Covid Levels(2019)Real GDP Growth Rate(by demand item)Source:Marubeni Research I

24、nstitute from IMF data 10 8 6 4 2024681021Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3個人消費民間資本形成純輸出政府支出GDP成長率(vs.same period previous year annualized,%contribution in%points)Euro Zone JapanU.S.UKpersonal consumption government expenditureprivate capital formation GDP growth ratenet exportsSource:Marub

25、eni Research Institute from U.S.Commerce Department data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.0.880.930.981.031.081.0224米国圏英国日本（2019=1.00）Marked upturn in the U.S.economyLooking Back at 202372.U.S.EconomyU.S economys resilience stands out:The U.S.economy outperformed the ot

26、her major industrialized countries during the recovery period from the Covid crisis.In 2023,asthe economic slowdown intensified in many developed countries the United States maintained a growth trajectory that exceeded its potential growth rate(US CongressionalBudget Office estimate:approximately 1.

27、8%).Domestic demand strong:Looking at demand by item,we can see that domestic demand,led by personal consumption which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP,drovethe U.S.economy in 2023 which performed better than expected.1.00 Real GDP Recovers to Pre-Covid Levels(2019)Real GDP Growth Rate(by demand

28、 item)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from IMF data 10 8 6 4 2024681021Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3個人消費民間資本形成純輸出政府支出GDP成長率(vs.same period previous year annualized,%contribution in%points)Euro Zone JapanU.S.UKpersonal consumption government expenditureprivate capital formation GDP gr

29、owth ratenet exportsSource:Marubeni Research Institute from U.S.Commerce Department data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Impacts of supply side shocks caused by the Covid crisis beginning to dissipate.Supply Side Restoration82.U.S.EconomyLabor supply recovery:The labor force participation r

30、ate,which declined at the beginning of the Covid pandemic,has since recovered rapidly and is currently exceedingestimates based on demographic trends and other factors.Supply chain recovery:The disruptions in the supply chain that led to longer lead times in the procurement of goods,including raw ma

31、terials,and inflationary pressures haslargely been resolved.Supply side inflationary pressures drop off:Compared to the peak in mid-2022,the degree of contribution from supply factors to the inflation rate is shrinking.Supply Chain Recovery StatusSource:Marubeni Research Institute from U.S.Commerce

32、Department and NY FRB data Labor Force Participation Rate PCE Deflator Contributionfrom Supply/Demand FactorsNote:For each component of the PCE deflator,an increase in quantity or price is classified as demand-driven inflation and a fall in quantity or price is classified as supply-driven inflation.

33、Source:Marubeni Research Institute from San Francisco FRB data 2.0 1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.02019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/7需要要因分類不可供給要因(vs.previous year,%)10.0 5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.0 2.0 1.00.01.02.03.04.05.02019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/7202

34、3/12023/7圧力指数生産者物価：中間財（右軸）(vs.previous year,%)(standard deviation)60.060.561.061.562.062.563.063.564.02019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/7労働参加率潜在的労働参加率（米議会予算局推定）(%)labor force participation rate potential labor force participation rate(Congressional Budget Office estimates)No

35、te:Labor force participation rate=(number of employed+unemployment rate/working age population)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from U.S.Commerce Department and Congressional Budget Office dataGlobal Supply Chain Pressure Index producer price-intermediate goods(right axis)demand factorsnon-classif

36、ied supply factors Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.The cumulative effects of monetary tightening were not fully realized until 2023 and are expected to strengthen into 2024Extent of Monetary Tightening and Time Lag92.U.S.EconomyMonetary policy time lag:It is well-known that there is a time

37、lag of several months to several years before the effects of monetary policy spill over into the realeconomy.According to the Financial Condition Index published by the Fed,the effects of tightening became apparent toward the end of 2023 and downward pressure onthe economy is expected to linger to a

38、 certain extent into 2024.Quantitative tightening:Along with police interest rate maneuvers,the Fed also implemented quantitative tightening(QT)reducing its holdings of government bondsand mortgage-backed securities.Although the Feds holdings rose temporarily due to capital injections related to the

39、 U.S.bank bankruptcy fiasco in March of 2023,therecent tightening continues.FRB Asset Balance Sheet Policy Interest Rate(real)/Monetary Policy Tightening Note:Real FF interest rate=median induced FF interest rate target increase in the year-on-year core PCE deflator rateSource:Marubeni Research Inst

40、itute from Federal Reserve Board Of Governors data 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.50.00.51.01.52.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.00.01.02.03.04.02019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/7実質FF金利金融環境指数（右軸）(downward effect on GDP,%base points)02012/12012/72013/12013/72014/12014/

41、72015/12015/72016/12016/72017/12017/72018/12018/72019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/7量的緩和期量的引締期($trillion)+$4.7 trillion+$1.6 trillion(12/2015)(3/2022)start of the previous interest rate hikes（%）start of the currentinterest rate hikesreal FF interest rateFinancial Condition I

42、ndex(right axis)quantitative easing periodtapering quantitative tightening periodSource:Marubeni Research Institute from FRB,IMF data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.6.0 2.2 8.4 3.0 5.2 4.5 9.0 8.0 7.0 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 50597925819891990

43、369200020004200520062007200820092000002220232024寄与度純輸出寄与度総固定資本形成寄与度最終消費支出実質GDP成長率2024 growth rate likely to remain around 4%-Consumption uncertain due to declines in housing investment/exportsChinas Economic Outl

44、ook103.Major Country Economies Real GDP Growth Rate/Contribution by Demand ItemSource:Marubeni Research Institute based on Chinas National Bureau of Statistics data (2023-2024 Marubeni Research Institutes estimate and forecast)(vs.previous year,%)*High Growth Era(1978-2011):Average Annual Growth Rat

45、e+10.0%*exports(degree of contribution)gross fixed capital(degree of contribution)final consumption expenditure(degree of contribution)nominal GDP growth rate Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.China:Economic/Financial Instability Risks Stemming from Housing Market Adjustments3.Major Country E

46、conomies11Source:Chinas Bureau of National StatisticsHousing DevelopersFinancial InstabilitySovereign RiskLocal Gvts.Financial InstitutionsShadow BankingPolitical/Economic/Social UneaseFinancial Vehiclesmany wealth management and trust financial products invested in housing and infrastructureCentral

47、Governmentsupport Housing Crisis Ripple Effect Routesdrop in income from land transactionsfinancial support capacity declinesprofitability of related infrastructure business worsensrepayment ability deteriorates large loans to housing developers and infrastructure companiessupport Real Estate Activi

48、ty as a%of GDPSource:Rogoff and Yang(includes spillover effects from construction investment and investment in equipment and materials)Real Estate Investment10%15%20%25%30%35%2000200220042006200820016米国中国英国日本韓国 20 20002002200420062008200022real estate-rela

49、ted activityfinancial institutions real-estate sector loan balancetrust investment in real-estate/infrastructuresectorslocal government-related debt(IMF estimates)financial vehiclesothertotaltrillion yuan30 53 9 34 39 73 GDP ratio,%25%44%7%28%32%60%figures as of2022Sept.end 2023June end 20232022 end

50、 Real Estate Sectors Economic/Financial/Fiscal Impact Sources:Chinas Bureau of National Statistics,Peoples Bank of China,China Trustee Association,IMF“2022 Annual Review of Chinas Economy”Housing market shrinking as some developers conditions deteriorate-Urbanization mid to long-term supporting fact

51、or(vs.previous year,%)）U.S.FranceChinaSpain UKJapanGermanyKorea repayment ability deteriorates Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Growth continues to slow-Housing market corrections/population decline/geo-economic risk will weigh heavily in the mid-termChina:Mid-Term Economic Outlook 3.Major C

52、ountry Economies Real GDP Growth RateSource:Marubeni Research Institute04812162000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028potential growth rate+9.0%(1999-2019)Note:Potential growth rate:ADB estimate(12/2022)Sources:IMF“World Economic Outlook 10/2023”Marubeni Research In

53、stitute for 2023-2025+5.3%(2000-2005)+3.5%(2006-2030)Housing market correctionsFrom 2022 onward,we have been seeing the most difficult phase inthe housing market since the privatization of housing in the late1990s.Due to developers deteriorating business conditions causedby bubble suppression measur

54、es,properties facing constructiondelays have expanded,especially in regional cities.Concerns overcompletion delays may also induce people to refrain from purchases.Policy buffers narrowAlthough it is possible for the central government to provide acertain degree of monetary and fiscal policy support

55、 to address theeconomic slowdown and financial instability caused by stagnation inthe housing sector,high local government debt and the expansion ofshadow banking are hindering policy options.Geo-economic risk heightensProductivity decline:Decrease in imports of advanced technology and foreign inves

56、tment in ChinaStagnant exports:renewable energy/electric vehicle-related,etc.Potential growth rate fallsThe potential growth rate is declining due to production factorconstraints(drop in the working-age population,slackening capitalstock growth)and the falloff in productivity growth.Downside Risk Fa

57、ctors12(vs.previous year,%)）Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.5060708058042005200620072008200920000022経常利益人件費設備投資配当金社内留保(fiscal year)(trillion yen)The 2024 annual spring wage negotiations(offens

58、ive)are expected to result in high wage increases for the second consecutive year due to continued high inflation andstrong corporate profits.The negative real wage rate is expected to narrow due to a rise in nominal wages and decline in the inflation rate in 2024.Attention will befocused on a possi

59、ble virtuous cycle between wages and prices.Ordinary Corporate Income/Personnel Expenses Average Spring Negotiation Wage Increases for LaborWith persistently high prices and strong corporate profits,higher wage hikes for a second consecutive year realisticJapan:Key is Direction Wages Take133.Major C

60、ountry EconomiesSource:Marubeni Research Institute from Japans Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and Ministry of Health,Labor and Welfare dataNote:All industries(excluding finance and insurance),corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or more.Capital investment includes software.3.5

61、82.12 2 69200020004200520062007200820092000002220232024所定内給与（一般労働者）前年物価上昇率春闘平均賃上率春闘(vs.previous year,%)Note:The previous years price increase is the year-on-year change in the core index excluding the impact of t

62、he consumption tax hike.2023 is the average value from January to October.scheduled(fixed)earnings(general worker)price increases vs.year before(%)spring negotiation-average wage increase(%)spring negotiation-base-up(%)ordinary Incomecapital investmentretained earningspersonnel expenses(labor costs)

63、dividends Source:Marubeni Research Institute from Japans Ministry of Finance data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.22022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/1010年物国債利回無担保翌日物金利(%)12/2022/allowable fluctuation range expanded to 0.5%4/2022set the allowable fluctuat

64、ion range to 0.25%7/2023raises upper level limit to 1.0%long-term interest rate guidance target:around 0%2 22324252023/12023/42023/72023/10(vs.previous fiscal year,%)2 inflation price targetforecastNote:Core CPI(composite excluding fresh food)(BOJ)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from B

65、ank of Japan,Japan Center for Economic Research data Price Outlook(private sector)2 10123420Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q324Q124Q325Q12023/12023/42023/72023/11(vs.previous year,%)YCC policy revision under BOJs Ueda gradually progressing,negative interest rates should be lifted in 1st half of 2024Jap

66、an:Monetary Policy143.Major Country EconomiesChanges forward guidance,calls for comprehensive review of policiesDecided to make YCC more flexible(Long-term interest rate upper limit:0.5%1.0%)Return to YCC flexibility(long-term yieldrates exceeding 1%allowed)20232024Monetary policy meetingMeeting+out

67、look reportYCC=yield curve controlOutlook for prices announcedOutlook for prices announcedGvt.tax cut policies to go into effectLDP presidents term endsOutlook for prices announcedResponse to spring labor wage negotiations4567896789101112 Interest Rate Exchange Rate0

68、2022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10日米金利差（10年）円（右軸）(%)(/$)weak strong In determining policy,the BOJ takes into account the macro supply/demand environment,sustained wage growth,underlying inflation,trends in overseas economies,economic side effects and other factors.So,the current ques

69、tion is will it revise its current policy when the next outlook for prices(inflation)is officially announced again?10-year gvt.bond yielduncollateralized overnight call rate10/2023allowed to exceed 1.0%U.S.-Japan rate gap(10-year)$to (right axis)1/20237/20234/202310/20232 inflation price targetforec

70、ast1/20237/20234/202310/2023Source:Marubeni Research Institute from LSEG data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Germanys personal consumption a concern in 2024 among other issuesEurope:Economic Trends153.Major Country EconomiesIn general,the Euro Zone has been under performing.Looking at real

71、 GDP growth by country,Germanys,in particular,has been sluggish acting as a drag on the Euro Zoneeconomy as a whole.Personal consumption in the southern European countries of France,Italy,and Spain has almost recovered to pre-Covid levels,but personal consumption in Germany,whichhas the largest econ

72、omy,has remained relatively stagnant.The key is whether real wages will rise due to a decline in inflation and an increase in nominal wages.Real GDP Growth Rate Personal ConsumptionNote:Most recent period is July-September 2023Source:Marubeni Research Institute from Eurostat data(seasonally adjusted

73、/vs.previous period annualized,%)(seasonally adjusted,October-December 2019=100）6 4 2024681012142021/1Q2021/3Q2022/1Q2022/3Q2023/1Q2023/3Q圏8890929496981001022021/Q12021/Q32022/Q12022/Q32023/Q12023/Q3圏Euro ZoneFranceSpainGermanyItalyEuro ZoneFranceSpainGermanyItalyNote:Most recent period is July-Sept

74、ember 2023Source:Marubeni Research Institute from Eurostat data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Expectations strong toward lower interest rates in 2024Europe:Monetary Policy Outlook163.Major Country EconomiesThe European Central Bank(ECB)kept its policy interest rate unchanged for the secon

75、d consecutive meeting.With interest rates having been raised rapidly from the secondhalf of 2022,there is plenty of room for interest rate cuts.The rate of increase in the index of consumer prices(HICP)has been heading downward.As background to this,energy prices began to decline from December 2022

76、amongother factors,and although it is possible that the rate of increase could temporarily head upward again,if there is a noticeable downward trend in inflation amid a sluggisheconomy an interest rate cut is likely to be implemented.Policy Interest Rates Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices(HICP）Not

77、e:Most recent data as of 12/11/2023Source:Marubeni Research Institute from European Central Bank data(%)(12/2019100)1/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10預金金利主要金利限界貸出金利90002021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/

78、42023/72023/10HICP食料品等非産業財savings facility interest ratemain refinance ratemarginal lending facility rateHICPnon-energy industrial goodsservicesfoodenergyNote:Most recent data as of 10/2023Source:Marubeni Research Institute from Eurostat data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Oil prices stead

79、y due to OPEC Plus coordinated production cuts and other factorsCommodity Market Outlook:Crude Oil174.Economic Environment/Risk FactorsAlthough oil demand is expected to be sluggish due to a global economic slowdown and production increases in non-OPEC countries such as the U.S.,due to thecoordinate

80、d production cuts by OPEC Plus,supply will still exceed demand somewhat in the1st quarter of 2024 but will roughly be balanced from the 2nd quarter onwards.Uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East and Russia as well as concern regarding a slowdown in upstream decarbonization-related investm

81、ent should keep oil pricesfirm.WTI Price Forecast World Crude Oil Supply/Demand BalanceSources:Refinitiv,U.S.Energy InformationAdministration(EIA)Source:EIA“Short-Term Outlook December 2023”($per barrel)(million barrels per day)02040608020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/1

82、2024/7Red:NY market(dotted line is the futures price as of 12/12/2023）Black:U.S.EIA(12/2023 monthly report)-3-2-0859095100105Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4202020224forecast（Q4 2023-)supply(left axis)demand(right axis)exceeds demandexceeds supplyinventory fluctuations(

83、right axis)(million barrels per day)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Oversupply expected due to increased production,but price downside to be limited owing to energy transition demand,etc.Commodity Market Outlook:Copper184.Economic Environment/Risk FactorsSupply for refined copper currently

84、exceeds demand.Demand may be shored up by demand related to the energy transition,however,the slowdown in the globaleconomy could put a damper on this.On the other hand,production is expected to increase significantly in mines in Chile,DR Congo,and other countries with thesupply of refined copper al

85、so expected to grow at an accelerated pace due to the construction and expansion of copper smelters in Indonesia and other countries.The downside to prices should be limited though due to energy transition demand,increased costs to reduce environmental impacts during production,and concernsabout red

86、uced production due to lower copper ore quality.Copper Price Outlook(LME 3-month futures)World Copper Production/Consumption OutlookSources:Refinitiv,IMF,World Bank,Australia Department of Industry,Science,Energy and Resources(DISER)Source:International Copper Study Group(ICSG)“Copper Market Forecas

87、t 2023,2024,October 2023”($per ton)(thousand tons)02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/7Red:London Metal Exchange(dotted line is the futures price as of 12/8/2023)Black:Australia DISER(9/2023)*Blue:World Bank(10/2023)*Grey:IMF(10/2023)*Is the fo

88、recast for the nearest futures price(cash)adjusted to 3-month futures with an average spread of$18 in 2023生産量（鉱山）生産量（精錬銅）消費量（精錬銅）20,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,00029,000202220232024Production(refined copper)Consumption(refined copper)Production(mining)Marubeni Corporation All Rig

89、hts Reserved.Global steel demand sluggish,especially in China,which is experiencing a housing recession.Commodity Market Outlook:Iron Ore/Coking Coal194.Economic Environment/Risk FactorsIn terms of iron ore,while production is expected to increase in Brazil and Australia,demand is likely to be slugg

90、ish,particularly in China,with an overall weak outlook globally.Demand for coking coal should remain soft as stagnant demand in China and measures to curb crude steel production exert downward price pressure.However,strongdemand in India may be somewhat of a supporting factor.The main upside factors

91、 are supply concerns due to the El Nio phenomenon,improvedAustralia-China relations,and stronger economic stimulus measures in China.Iron Ore Price Outlook Coking Coal Price Outlook05002020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/7Red:Singapore market(dotted line is the futu

92、res price as of 12/8/2023)Black:Australia DISER(9/2023)005006002020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/7(CFR China,iron content 62%)(FOB Australia,premium coking coal)($per ton)Red:Singapore market(dotted line is the futures price as of 12/8/2023)Black:Australia DISER(9

93、/2023)($per ton)Sources:Refinitiv,Australia Department of Industry,Science,Energy and Resources(DISER)Sources:Refinitiv,Australia Department of Industry,Science,Energy and Resources(DISER)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Downward pressure on prices as supply expected to riseCommodity Market

94、Outlook:Corn/Soybeans204.Economic Environment/Risk FactorsCorn production is expected to increase globally,and U.S.ending inventories are expected to further rise.Also,steady crude oil prices should support ethanol demand andthus firm corn prices.Soybean prices will continue to be supported for the

95、time being by the low end-of-season inventories in the U.S.but may begin to decline after the US harvest and due toincreased production in SouthAmerica and expanded cultivation area in NorthAmerica.The main factors that may cause price fluctuations are the current weather in Brazil and weather in th

96、e U.S.from early spring onward.Other considerations include the cornproduction situation in Ukraine and U.S.-China relations in terms of soybeans.Corn Price Outlook Soybean Price Outlook2003004005006007008009002020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/76008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,80

97、02020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/72024/12024/7(cent per bushel)(cent per bushel)Red:Chicago market(dotted line is the futures price as of 12/8/2023)Black:U.S.Department of Agriculture(11/2023)*Blue:World Bank(10/2023)*Grey:IMF(10/2023)*2022 used as a base adjusted to Chicago market pr

98、icesRed:Chicago market(dotted line is the futures price as of 12/8/2023)Black:U.S.Department of Agriculture(11/2023)*Blue:World Bank(10/2023)*Grey:IMF(10/2023)*2022 used as a base adjusted to Chicago market pricesSources:Refinitiv,IMF,World Bank,U.S.Department of AgricultureSources:Refinitiv,IMF,Wor

99、ld Bank,U.S.Department of Agriculture Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Risk of dissatisfaction over high prices may lead to political instabilityInflation and GovernmentApproval Rates214.Economic Environment/Risk FactorsProlonged price increases in many countries are putting pressure on cons

100、umer lifestyles leading to growing dissatisfaction with the government.In countries where inflationrates are higher than normal(2019 average),government approval ratings tend to be low.The longer the effects of inflation linger,the greater the risk of political instability.As frustration over corona

101、virus countermeasures and inflation intensified in major countries,right-wing parties have been able to take advantage of ruling parties poorperformances in key elections which is leading to destabilization on an international basis.Japan has been one of the exceptions as the ruling Liberal Democrat

102、ic Party won alandslide victory in the House of Councilors election in July 2022.Still,rising prices have worsened since the election weighing on support for the government Inflation Situation and Government Approval Rate Major Country Political TrendsSource:Marubeni Research Institute from OECD,Mor

103、ning Consult dataIndiaMexicoSwitzerlandBrazilAustraliaItalyIrelandU.S.BelgiumSpainCanadaPolandSwedenUKAustriaNetherlandsNorwayFranceGermanyKoreaCzechJapan 4 3 2 101234567 80 60 40 20020406080Low Approval(government approval rate)High ApprovalDownside (inflation situation)Upside The“Inflation situati

104、on”is the difference between the latest 10/23 and that of more normalized times(2019 average)(YoY,%)(India 9/23,Australia 3Q/23).The“government approval situation”is the approval rate of a survey taken on 11/23 and the difference with the disapproval rate.CountryRecent ElectionsSituationU.S.11/22(mi

105、d-term)Althoughthe RepublicanParty took over the House,the Democrats did well there,and also kept the Senate.Japan7/22(Upper House)Ruling LDP won in landslide.Takes majorityof single seat constituencies.UK5/23(local assembly)Ruling conservativessuffer crushingdefeat.Loses 1,000 seats in 230 local go

106、vernments.Germany11/23(Bavaria-Hesse State Parliament)The coalitionparties(PM Sholz)are in the doldrums(the conservative CSU,CDU parties strong).Right-wing AfD gains.France9/23(senate)Opposition center-right to right-wingRepublicansand others keepmajority.Far rightwingRN(led by La Pen)wins 3 seats.I

107、taly9/22(general)A right-wing coalition including the opposition far-right FDI(PM Meloni)win.Spain7/23(general)Opposition center-right National Party becomes the largest party in the House.Far-right VOX loses seats.Australia5/22(general)Opposition Labor Party(PM Albanese)wins.Korea10/23(Seoul distri

108、ct mayor)Opposition Democratic Party won a landslide.(Ruling party defeated.)Argentina11/23(presidential)Oppositionright-wing libertarianRepresentative Milie wins.Brazil10/22(presidential)Oppositionleft-wing party former PresidentLula wins.Source:Marubeni Research Institute from various news reports

109、 Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.In addition to U.S.-China friction and Russias invasion of Ukraine,Middle East instability fanning new flamesInternational Situations Increasing Complexity224.Economic Environment/Risk Factors International State of AffairsSource:Marubeni Research Institute

110、based on various media reports including Economic Policy UncertaintyChinaRussiaEUUKAfricaGulf countriesIndiaASEANU.S.Latin AmericaJapanSouth KoreaNorth KoreaUkraineAustralia/NZCanadaIranTurkeyTaiwan problemFeb.Major earthquake in Tukey/SyriaShooting down of Chinese aerial balloon1 year mark of Russi

111、as invasion of UkraineMarchIran/Saudia Arabia normalization of diplomatic relations AprilMilitary conflict in SudanMayG7 Summit(Hiroshima,Japan)JuneWagner militia(Prigozhin)rebellion in RussiaNATO Summit(Spain)JulyCoup detat in NigerBRICS Summit(South Africa)Coup detat in GabonSept.Major earthquakei

112、n MoroccoG20 Summit(India)Azerbaijan takes over Nagorno-KarabakhOct.Hamas attacks Israel Nov.APEC Summit(U.S.)Milei wins Argentinas presidential electionPalestinian problemRussian invasion of Ukraineanti-Myanmar government movement/clashesSouth China Sea frictionNorth Korean missile developmentIrani

113、an nuclear weapon developmentfrequent coup-detats in Africa 2023 Geopolitical Eventscyber attacksgenerative AI(fake information,etc.)2024 presidential electionPink Tide(rise of leftist governmentsclimate change/abnormal weatherGeopolitical Risk Index(GPR)Geopolitical Risk Index(GPR)An index that ass

114、esses geopolitical risk(covering war,terrorism,etc.)based on text analysis of 10 major Western newspapers(1985-)(1985-2019 average=100).020040060020002000420052006200720082009200000222023Venezuela-Guyana tensionsEurope/U.S.,othersChina/Russia,ot

115、hersOther Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Series of important elections in major countries/regions including U.S.presidential election2024 Main Political/Economic Event Schedule234.Economic Environment/Risk FactorsDateRegionEvent1/7AsiaBangladesh general election1/13AsiaTaiwan presidential

116、election1/15North America Iowa Republican Party caucus(U.S.presidential election primaries begin)late JanuaryAsiaOrdinary session of the Diet(Japan)(150 days)2/8AsiaPakistan general election2/10-17AsiaChinas New Year holidays2/14AsiaIndonesiapresidential/parliamentary elections3/5North America Super

117、 Tuesday(U.S.presidential election:Numerous primaries/caucuses take place)3/10Europe/CISPortugal general election3/17Europe/CISRussia presidential electionMarchAsiaNational Peoples Congress(NPC)(China)AprilAsiaKorea general electionApril or MayAsiaIndia generalelection5/12Europe/CISLithuania preside

118、ntial election(10/13parliamentary elections)around MayAfricaSouth Africa generalelection6/2Latin America Mexico presidential election6/69Europe/CISEurope parliamentary election6/9Europe/CISBelgium federal election7/26-8/12Europe/CIS33rd Summer Olympics,17th Paralympics(Paris,France)July or AugustNor

119、th America Republican/Democrat national conventions(party candidate nominations for president)9/30Europe/CISNorth Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO)Secretary-Generals term expires9/30AsiaLDP presidential term expires(Japan)SeptemberAsiaSri Lanka presidential election10/31Europe/CISEuropeanUnion(EU)-

120、European Commission presidential term expires11/5North America U.S.presidential/congressional elections11/30Europe/CISEU-European Council presidential term expiresaround NovemberEurope/CISRomania presidential electionaround DecemberAsiaChina Central Economic Work Conferenceto be decidedLatin America

121、 Venezuela presidential election(scheduled for late 2024)to be decidedEurope/CISUK generalelection(current term expires in January 2025)to be decidedEurope/CISUkraine presidential election(yet to be decided)Region/Country International Conferences/Summits,etc.DateRegionEvent1/15-19WorldWorld Economi

122、c Forum Annual Meeting(Davos,Switzerland)FebruaryWorldMunich Security Conference(Germany)3/21-22Europe/CISEU Council Meeting(Brussels,Belgium)3/26-29AsiaBoao Forum for Asia Annual Meeting(China)AprilWorldIMF/World Bank Spring Meeting(Washington D.C.,U.S.)5/14-16Europe/CISEBRD Annual Meeting and Busi

123、ness Forum(Yerevan,Armenia)5/27-31AfricaAnnual African Development Bank(ADB)Meeting(Kenya)6/27-28Europe/CISEU Council Meeting(Brussels,Belgium)JuneWorldG7 Summit(Italy)late JuneWorldEuropeanCentral Bank(ECB)Forum(Sintra,Portugal)around JuneAsiaShangri-la Dialogue(Singapore)7/9-11WorldNorth Atlantic

124、Treaty Organization(NATO)Summit(Washington D.C.,U.S.)late AugustWorldJackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium(U.S.)9/10-13Europe/CISEastern Economic Forum(Russia)9/25-26AsiaAsian InfrastructureInvestment Bank(AIIB)Annual Meeting(Uzbekistan)9/30WorldIMF Managing Directors term expiresSeptemberWorld79th

125、 Session of the UN General Assembly(New York,U.S.)OctoberWorldBRICS Summit(Kazan,Russia)OctoberWorldIMF/World Bank Fall MeetingOctoberEurope/CISEU Council Meeting(Brussels,Belgium)around OctoberChinaFuture Investment Initiative Conference,“Davos in the Desert”(Saudi Arabia)11/18-19WorldG20 Summit(Br

126、azil)NovemberWorldAsia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC)Summit(Peru)NovemberWorldCOP 29 Meeting(on climate change)(Azerbaijan)around NovemberMiddle EastManama Dialogue(Bahrain)DecemberEurope/CISEU Council Meeting(Brussels,Belgium)to be decidedAsiaShanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)Summitto be de

127、cidedWorldInternational Labor Organizations(ILO)Conference(Geneva,Switzerland Note:Dates/schedules are provisional as of November 30,2023Source:Marubeni Research Institute based on various media reports Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.24Reference Material/Other Countries/Regions Marubeni Co

128、rporation All Rights Reserved.Survey of business confidence in major countries/Euro Zone suggests a weak economic recovery,especially in manufacturingBusiness Confidence（Major Countries/Euro Zone)25Business ConfidenceChinas Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)for manufacturing fell below 50 again in Octob

129、er.The U.S.and Japan also appear to lack momentum,particularly in manufacturing.In the Euro Zone the decline seems even more serious.Business confidence in emerging Asian countries is also fragile,weighed down by high interest rates and a slowdownof the Chinese economy.On the other hand,India has ma

130、intained a high level of business confidence.Source:Marubeni Research Institute from LSEG,Chinas Bureau of National Statistics,S&P data (greater than 50 indicates economic expansion,less than 50 indicates contraction)Major Country/Euro Zone PMI Heat Map20222023891011U.S.composite46.445.04

131、6.850.152.353.454.353.252.050.250.250.750.7Euro Zonecomposite47.849.350.352.053.754.152.849.948.646.747.246.547.6Chinamanufacturing48.047.050.152.651.949.248.849.049.349.750.249.549.4Japancomposite48.949.750.751.152.952.954.352.152.252.652.150.549.6Koreamanufacturing49.048.248.548.547.648.148.447.84

132、9.448.949.949.850.0Indonesiamanufacturing50.350.951.351.251.952.750.352.553.353.952.351.551.7Vietnammanufacturing47.446.447.451.247.746.745.346.248.750.549.749.647.3Philippinesmanufacturing52.753.153.552.752.551.452.250.951.949.750.652.452.7Thailandmanufacturing51.152.554.554.853.160.458.253.250.748

133、.947.847.547.6Malaysiamanufacturing47.947.846.548.448.848.847.847.747.847.846.846.847.9Singaporemanufacturing49.849.749.850.049.949.749.549.749.849.950.150.250.3Australiacomposite48.047.548.550.648.553.051.650.148.248.051.547.646.2Indiacomposite56.759.457.559.058.461.661.659.461.960.961.058.457.4Tur

134、keymanufacturing45.748.150.150.150.951.551.551.549.949.049.648.447.2Egyptcomposite45.447.245.546.946.747.347.849.149.249.248.747.948.4South Africacomposite50.650.248.750.549.749.647.948.748.251.049.948.950.0BrazilComposite49.849.149.949.750.751.852.351.549.650.649.050.350.7Mexicomanufact50.651.348.9

135、51.051.051.150.550.953.251.249.852.152.5 Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Countries have varying degrees of commitment to rebuilding finances from the fiscal deterioration caused by the Covid crisisGovernment Debt Continues to Grow26Fiscal IssuesGovernment debt levels reached record highs in

136、 response to the Covid crisis.In addition to economic stimulus measures that continued even after the Covid pandemicsubsided,spending is expected to continue to expand in response to climate change and the expansion of industrial policy.Although government debt to GDP ratios have been on the decline

137、 in many countries,the extent of fiscal reconstruction differs among countries.Fiscal Balance Government Debt as a%of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2044(vs.GDP,%)【developed countries】【emerging economies】Government Debt Balance02040608020221222324【developed countries】【em

138、erging economies】201920202023U.S.108.7135.5122.2Canada90.2118.9105.1 Germany58.968.067.2France97.4114.7111.4Italy134.1154.9140.3UK84.5105.6106.3Japan236.4258.7258.2China60.470.182.4Indonesia30.639.739.1India75.088.583.2Middle East/North Africa43.955.442.5LatinAmerica68.377.368.6(vs.GDP,%)Source:Maru

139、beni Research Institute from IMF“Fiscal Monitor”(10/2023)dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from IMF“Fiscal Monitor”(10/2023)dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from IMF“Fiscal Monitor”(10/2023)data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.809001402019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020

140、Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q2米国圏日本005006002019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q2米国圏日本80002019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q2202

141、1Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q2米国圏日本Government transferred money to households and businesses as benefits due to the Covid pandemicHousehold and Corporate Balance Sheets Improving27Fiscal IssuesDuring the coronavirus pandemic,the government implemented extensive economic policies(hando

142、uts)resulting in increased income transfers from the government tohouseholds.Consequently,household savings grew in 2020-2021 in the first half of the Covid crisis.On the other hand,this began to reverse after 2022 as the economy began to normalize.Companies increased savings(cash and deposits)due t

143、o governments generous support measures.Government Income Transfers to Households Household Savings(Q1 2019=100)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from FRED,ECB,Japan Cabinet Office data Company Savings2020Q2=1274U.S.Euro ZoneJapanU.S.Euro ZoneJapanU.S.Euro ZoneJapan(Q1 2019=100,seasonally adjusted)

144、Source:Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC,ECB,BOJ data(Q1 2019=100,seasonally adjusted)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from FRED,ECB,BOJ data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.707580859095512019平均20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3耐久財半耐久財非耐久財707580859

145、095512019平均20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3財輸出輸出財輸入輸入（点線）708090平均20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3実質GDP輸出個人消費設備投資(2019 average=100)Japans economy has recovered to pre-Covid levels,though consumption of services has stalledR

146、ecent Situation:Looking Back at 202328JapanA moderate recovery in Japan that has been driven by pent-up demand as the impact of Covid eased(Covid downgraded to class 5).Also,highest wage increases in 30years against the backdrop of high prices(inflation).While external demand has been hampered by a

147、slowdown in overseas economies,the easing of semiconductorshortages and retraction of border entry restrictions are providing a tailwind for the economy.Services consumption is still recovering though.Real GDP(External Demand)(Internal Demand)real GDPexportspersonal consumption capital spendinggoods

148、 exportsservices exportsgoods importsservices importsdurablessemi-durablesnon-durables servicesSource:Marubeni Research Institute from Japan Cabinet Office data(2019 average=100)(2019 average=100)19 ave.19 ave.19 ave.Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.100 80 60 40 2002040602020/12020/42020/720

149、20/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10訪日外客数（中国）（中国以外）旅行収支（受取）(vs.2019,%)(40506070809001402020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10NIEsASEAN等米国中国(1/2020=100)Service Exports(inbound tourism)

150、(by region)(by type of good)40506070809001402020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10中間財情報関連資本財自動車関連Semiconductor shortage reductions/inbound tourism recovery peak,exports hindered by overseas economy slowdown Outlook:Exports29Jap

151、anJapans economy is expected to slow in the first half of the year owing to decelerating overseas economies and as such temporary favorable factors as the mitigation ofsemiconductor shortages and recovery in inbound tourism fade.There is still room though for a recovery in the number of Chinese visi

152、tors to Japan but note that it may notreturn to pre-Covid levels due to the Chinas economic stagnation and adverse reaction to the release of treated water from some of Japans nuclear power plants.Real Exportsintermediate goodsIT-relatedcapital goods auto-relatedNIEs/ASEAN,etc.EUU.S.China#of visitor

153、s to Japan(from China)(other than China)tourism revenueSource:Marubeni Research Institute from BOJ data(1/2020=100)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from Japan National Tourist Bureau,BOJ data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.20 15 10 505101520月調査月調査月調査12月調査実績見込実績200222023(vs.pre

154、vious fiscal year,%)708090019平均20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3住宅以外建物構築物輸送用機械他機械設備等知的財産生産物(2019 average=100)82848688909294969810019Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3名目実質前（2019年平均）(trillion yen)On the back of robust corpor

155、ate profits,private sector appetite for capital spending strongOutlook:Capital Investment30JapanReal capital investment,which had been put off during the Covid crisis,has recovered to pre-Covid levels.Despite sluggish overseas economies acting as a drag on Japanseconomy,investment to replace aging e

156、quipment,labor-saving spending in response to labor shortages,and investment related to decarbonization and digitalization isexpected to continue.With healthy corporate earnings as a backdrop,companies inclination to invest remains high for the second consecutive year.Capital Investment Real Goss Fi

157、xed Capital Formation(by type)Planned Capital Investment non-housing buildings/structurestransportation machineryother machinery/equipment intellectual property productsnominalrealpre-Covid(2019 average)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from Japan Cabinet Office dataSource:Marubeni Research Institu

158、te from Japan Cabinet Office dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from BOJ dataMarchJuneSeptemberDecemberactual estimateactual19 ave.Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.20 15 10 5055909552020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/1202

159、3/42023/72023/10実質消費活動指数50.7耐久財8.9非耐久財40.5実質賃金（右軸）(1/2020=100)(vs.previous year,%)Although high prices are weighing consumption down,with ample room for it,services consumption should gradually recoverOutlook:Personal Consumption31JapanDue to high prices and stagnant real wages,consumption of non-du

160、rable products like food are weak.Consumption in the automobile and service sectors has beentrending upward ever since the semiconductor shortage and the impact of Covid eased.A moderate recovery in personal consumption is expected driven by servicesconsumption,which still has room to rebound based

161、on the lower than normal number of customers.ConsumptionActivity Index/Real Wages Services Consumption(travel)(dining-out)100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3日本人国内旅行消費額（述旅行者数）（旅行単価）(vs.2019,%)70 60 50 40 30 20 /12020/42020/72020

162、/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10外食売上高（客数）（客単価）real Consumption Activity Indexservices durables non-durables real wages(right axis)domestic travel revenue(residents)(traveler numbers)(travel unit price)(vs.2019,%)dining-out revenue(customer numbers)(unit

163、price per customer)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from Japan Tourism Agency,Food Service Association dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from BOJ,Japan Ministry of Health Labor and Welfare data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.2 1012342020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/10

164、2022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10総合*(vs.previous year,%)2%inflation target0070802016202022/12023/12023/506070802016202022/12023/12023/10(share,%)2 1012342020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/

165、42023/72023/10刈込平均値*加重中央値*最頻値*Prices remain high due to higher costs being passed down-Focus will be on raw material prices/labor costs and price shiftingOutlook:Prices32JapanAs import prices declined the rate of increase in consumer prices was expected to slow,but as costs passed down through the s

166、upply chain persisted longer than expected,overall prices(inflation)remained high averaging around 3%.Looking ahead,goods prices are expected to decline on the back of falling import prices,while service pricesare expected to rise moderately if wages also continue to rise.Note:Shows the distribution

167、 percentage in the rate of increase for each good and service in the consumer price index(the horizontal axis is divided into 2%increments from the displayed value,and the number of items within that range is counted)Distribution of Goods Distribution of Services Consumer Price Index Underlying Infl

168、ation Measurescompositecore*core/core*trimmed mean*weighted median*mode*2%inflation target(vs.previous year,%)Note:*Core is the composite(overall)excluding fresh food.*Core/core is the composite excluding fresh food and energy.*Trimmed mean is obtained by excluding the upper and lower ends(here,the

169、10 percent ends)of the price change distribution adjusted for the items weight in the CPI*Weighted median is the weighted average of the inflation rates of the items at around the 50th percentile point of the distribution.*Mode is the inflation rate with the highest density in the distribution.(vs.p

170、revious year,%)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from BOJ dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications data(vs.previous year,%)(share,%)Marubeni Cor

171、poration All Rights Reserved.Longer transport lead times and driver shortages result in a reduction in transport capacity2024 Logistics Issues33JapanFromApril 2024,the Work Style ReformAct will be applied to the transportation industry.Transportation lead times will be longer due to regulations that

172、 cap overtime work,etc.Coupled with driver shortages and ensuing decrease in transportation capacity,transportation fares/costs are rising.Increased transport costs are passed on to product prices.Transportation logistics standardization,cooperation between transport companies/shippers(joint transpo

173、rt,relay transport,warehouse IoT,etc.)active use of autonomousdriving,etc.will become important.Rising Prices=Reduced Transport Capacity Logistics Cost/Transportation Cost Correlation(past 27 years)Labor shortageDecreasing number of truck drivers Shortening of work hoursBecomes strict from April 202

174、4 Continued increase in demandE-commerce market expands further Investment in new facilities/equipment requiredNeed to increase efficiency through digitalization,etc.Increase in charges/fares/costs due to capacity shortagePower balance between shipping company and shipper shifts transport companies

175、shippers Shippers passing on transport costs to product pricesRising Prices/Inflationaround 56%100%(about 3%of revenues）3500400045005000550060002009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年 Number of Home Deliveries per Truck Driver20215,812 deliveries per 1 driver d(deliveries p

176、er driver)Due to the Great East Japan Earthquake,2011 is an estimated rather than actual value.around5%revenueslogistics costtransportation costSource:Marubeni Research Institute from Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,Ministry of Land,Infrastructure,Transport and Tourism dataSour

177、ce:Marubeni Research Institute from Japan Institute of Logistics Systems data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Emerging Asian economies cautious over interest rate cuts amid persistent inflation fears and currency depreciation pressuresEmerging Economies(Exchange Rates/Prices/Policy Interest

178、 Rates)34Emerging EconomiesThe dollar has remained firm against the backdrop of a strong US economy with dogged depreciation pressure on currencies of emerging countries.Inflation has subsidedin many countries,but financial authorities remain wary of imported inflation risks due to high energy and f

179、ood prices and currency depreciation.There are signs of acoordinated rate cut in LatinAmerica where interest rates were raised early on,however,emergingAsian economies generally remain cautious about lowering rates.Consumer Price Index(CPI)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from LSEG data Exchange R

180、ate(vs.$)(参考)50 40 30 20 1001020南豪州韓国日本英国9月末10月末11月末(参考)0510152025南豪州韓国日本圏英国米国9月10月11月(year-to-date change,%)strong currency weak currencyAustralias on a quarterly basis(Q3 23)5.4%(Nov.)36.3%（Nov.)62.0%*refinance rate,*savings rate(Nov.)160.9%(vs.previous year,%)Policy Interest rateCountryInterestRa

181、teRecent Trends,Central Bank Policies,etc.Turkey42.50%(12/21)2.50%rate hike(next hike on 1/25 to be narrower)Egypt19.75%*(12/21)left unchanged(3 consecutive meetings,next on 2/1)India6.50%(12/8)left unchanged(5 consecutive meetings,next on 2/8)Indonesia6.00%(12/21)left unchanged(2 consecutive meetin

182、gs,next in Feb.)Malaysia3.00%(11/2)left unchanged(3 consecutive meetings,next on 1/24)Vietnam5.00%*(6/16)0.50%rate cut(4 rate cuts in 2023)Thailand2.50%(11/29)left unchanged(rate hike at previous meeting,next on 2/7)Philippines6.50%(12/14)left unchanged(2 consecutive meetings,next in Feb.Brazil11.75

183、%(12/13)0.50%rate cut 4 consecutive meetings,next on 1/31)Argentina133.00%(10/12)15.00%rate hike(Nov.inflation rate was 160.9%)Mexico11.25%(12/14)left unchanged(6 consecutive meetings,next in Feb.)Cjhile8.25%(12/19)0.75%rate cut(rate cuts to be expanded,next in Jan.)South Africa8.25%(11/23)left unch

184、anged(3 consecutive meetings)Australia4.35%(12/5)left unchanged(rate hike at previous meeting,next on 2/6)Korea3.50%(11/30)left unchanged(7 consecutive meetings,next on1/14)TurkeyEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaVietnamThailandPhilippinesBrazilArgentinaMexicoChileSouth AfricaAustraliaKoreaJapanEuro ZoneUK

185、(reference)TurkeyEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaVietnamThailandPhilippinesBrazilArgentinaMexicoChileSouth AfricaAustraliaKorea(reference)JapanEuro ZoneUKU.S.Sept.end Oct.end Nov.endSept.Oct.Nov.Source:Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC data,various media reportsSource:Marubeni Research Institute from

186、 CEIC data,various media reports Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Although inflation has subsided,currencies remain weak-Despite economic slowdown,mood cautious on monetary easingGeneral View of Main ASEAN Countries35ASEANAlthough economies have generally slowed and inflation has eased due t

187、o sluggish external demand and a high interest rate climate,currencies have remained in a lowrange against the dollar,and financial authorities in each country are generally maintaining a cautious stance on monetary easing.Source:Marubeni Research Institute from LSEG,CEIC,IMF,each countrys central b

188、ank dataGDP Growth Rates(Q3 2023,vs.previousyear)Average GrowthRates(2015-2019)Inflation Rates(Nov.,vs.previous year)InflationTargetsCurrency(Nov.,year-to-datevs.$)Policy InterestRate(as of 12/2020)Policy Interest RateFloor(lowest value since 2022)）Indonesia+4.9%(0.1%pt)+5.0%+2.9%(within range)1.53.

189、5%1.98%6.00%(+2.50%pt)3.50%Thailand+1.5%(1.9%pt)+3.4%0.4%(lower)1.03.0%4.23%2.50%(+2.00%pt)0.50%Philippines+5.9%(0.7%pt)+6.6%+4.1%(higher)2.04.0%2.10%6.50%(+4.50%pt)2.00%Malaysia+3.3%(1.6%pt)+4.9%+1.8%(lower)2.03.0%7.60%3.00%(+1.25%pt)1.75%Vietnam+5.3%(1.8%pt)+7.1%+3.4%(lower)4.5%3.87%5.00%(+1.00%pt

190、)4.00%Singapore+1.1%(2.1%pt)+3.2%+4.7%(higher)2.0%弱2.07%-Note:The red GDP figures above in parentheses are the difference between the 2023 growth rate and average growth rate from 2015-2019.Inflation rates are compared with the inflation targets and policy interest rates are compared with the lowest

191、 interest rates since 2022.Malaysia and Singapore inflation rates are as of October.The Monetary Authority of Singapore(MAS)has not set an explicit inflation target but has indicated that it would prefer a core inflation rate of just under 2.0%.rate cut 3/2023 Main ASEAN Countries Economies/Exchange

192、 Rates/Prices/Interest Rates Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.While domestic demand remains strong,a drop-off in external demand acts as a drag on an economic recoveryGDP/Prices(Inflation)36ASEANIn 2023,ASEAN economies will be driven by domestic demand spurred by services consumption and a r

193、ecovery in foreign tourists due to the removal of entry restrictionsstemming from the Covid pandemic.However,exports will continue to be sluggish due to a slowdown in the global economy centered on China.High interest rates andinflation also weigh on broader economic activity.In 2024,domestic demand

194、 will continue to expand steadily due to such factors such as easing inflation.Exports are expected to remain somewhat firm despite Chinas slump.Real GDP Growth Rate Consumer Price Index(CPI)20 15 10 5051015202020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023

195、/7(vs.previous year,%)6 4 202468102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10IndonesiaPhilippinesThailandMalaysiaSingaporeVietnamSource:Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC dataIndonesiaPhilipp

196、inesThailandMalaysiaSingaporeVietnam(vs.previous year,%)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Exports have been generally weak,but may firm up in 2024 with signs of a recovery,especially in electrical/electronic products Exports37ASEANNet exports have been negative compared to the previous year d

197、ue to Chinas economic slowdown but there are signs of a gradual recovery with exports likely to pick up inthe 2nd half of 2024.While the sluggish Chinese economy will continue to hinder exports somewhat,exports as a whole are expected to be firm in 2024,with a pickup in electrical andelectronics-rel

198、ated product exports as capital investment expands and the semiconductor cycle picks up.In particular,Malaysia should see a recovery in 2024 centered onits mainstay semiconductor-related industries.Exports($base)Local Government/Research Organization Perceptions 60 40 200204060801002020/12020/42020/

199、72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10Gvt./ResearchBodyOutlookSingapore Monetary Authority(MAS)The slowdown in Singapores economy reached a turning point in Q3 of 2023 andshould show gradual improvement through the 2nd half of 2024.The background tothis i

200、s that the global tech industry is on a recovery path and interest rates arestarting to fall worldwide.Malaysia-MIDFResearchExports began to recover in Q4 2023 led by electrical and electronic products such as semiconductors.2024 should see economic growth of 4.5%YoY buoyed by the continued upsurge

201、in the semiconductor market and increased demand in China.Semiconductor Cycle 50050000420052006200720082009200000222023半導体販売額（全世界、3月移動平半導体指数Source:Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC data(vs.previous year,%)IndonesiaPhilippinesThail

202、andMyanmarMalaysiaSingaporeVietnamLaos(vs.previous year,%)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from LSEG datasemiconductor sales(global,3 month moving average)Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Although the pace of return in tourists is slowing a bit,the overall

203、increase is expected to continue in 2024Tourism38ASEANThe number of tourists continues to recover but the pace is gradually slowing.Some analysts attribute the sharp decline to a plummet in the number of Chinese touristsdue to a deteriorating image of SoutheastAsia being depicted on social networkin

204、g sites and in movies.On the other hand,the general trend of an overall increase in the number of tourists is expected to continue in 2024.In addition to the expansion of airline routes in theregion,tourism is also rising due the relaxation of related-regulations such as the easing of visa requireme

205、nts for Chinese,Indian,and Russian tourists in Thailand,thelargest tourist destination in the region.Expanding Routes to SEAsia(air routes+1 train route)05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002019/12019/42019/72019/102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/10202

206、3/12023/42023/72023/10(thousand persons)Foreign Tourist NumbersSingapore Singapore Airlines resumed operations on five routes to China from November 2023.The airline plans to connect 22 cities in China and operate 150 weekly flights by the end of the yearThailand Thailands LCC Really Cool Airlines p

207、lans to start operations between Thailand and Japan,Hong Kong,Singapore,and Shanghai from Q2 2024.Thailands P80 Air plans to start operations to second-tier cities in China from Q4 2024.Thailands Landarch Airlines plans to launch short-haul routes connecting southern cities in April 2024.Vietnam Vie

208、tjet Air,a major LCC,is opening 11 new international routes to Australia,Indonesia,and India starting from Q2 2023.Malaysia Malaysia Airlines opens new international flights to three Indian cities(Amritsar,Thiruvananthapuram,Ahmedabad)in Q4 2023.Indonesia Starting December 2023,four airlines from Ch

209、ina,India,and the UAE(Xiamen Airlines,Vistara Airlines,Indigo Airlines,and Etihad Airways)opened new routes to Balis Ngurah Rai International Airport.Laos From November 2023,tourist trains from Beijing to Vientiane,Laos will began operating.IndonesiaThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesVietnamSingaporeSource:

210、Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from carious media reports Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Despite subsiding inflation,caution on interest rate cuts reigns amid concerns over persistent currency depreciation pressures Monetary Policy39ASEANInflat

211、ion has leveled off in many of the major ASEAN countries,however fears over currency depreciation persist as the US maintains high interest rates,so in general thesecountries are taking a cautious stance on lowering interest rates.The exception is Vietnam where interest rates were cut in the 1st hal

212、f of 2023 to stimulate the economy.Looking ahead,until the U.S.moves to cut interest rates(assumed to be mid-2024 or later),there is little likelihood of a shift to monetary easing inASEAN countries.Policy Interest Rates Central Bank Movements in Each Country0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.0019/11

213、9/419/719/1020/120/420/720/1021/121/421/721/1022/122/422/722/1023/123/423/723/10CountryRecent Rate ResponsesFuture Outlook/Points of InterestIndonesiaOct.rate hikeNov./Dec.left unchangedRate hike in October due to weak rupiah andsoaring food prices.Current interest ratelevel seems appropriate.Thaila

214、ndNov.left unchanged(1st time in 1 year and 5months)Current interest rate determined reasonablegiven slowing economy and inflation ratefalling below the target rate.MalaysiaNov.left unchangedAlthough the ringgit depreciated in October for the first time since the Asian financial crisis,the central b

215、ank recognized the strong macroeconomic situation.PhilippinesOct.emergency rate hikeNov./Dec.left unchangedAn emergency interest rate hike was carried out in October.Although the perception is that high prices have eased,caution over inflation remains strong.Vietnam2023 cut rate 4 timesIn response t

216、o a slowing economy due to sluggish exports interest rates were cut 4 times in 2023 with speculation of further cuts.Source:Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC dataIndonesiaThai-land Philippines Vietnam Malaysia Source:Marubeni Research Institute based on information/data from each central bank Ma

217、rubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.40 30 20 2019/32019/62019/92019/122020/32020/62020/92020/122021/32021/62021/92021/122022/32022/62022/92022/122023/32023/62023/9民間最終消費政府支出総固定資本形成在庫変動貴重品輸出輸入誤差脱漏GDP(contribution vs.previous year,%pts)+7.6%+7.8%Slow external demand/soaring food price co

218、ncerns but economy strong,led by personal consumption/infrastructure investmentGDP,Prices40IndiaIndian economy expanding steadily centered on consumer spending and infrastructure-related investment.Sluggish external demand weighs a bit heavily,but the impact isrelatively small compared to other emer

219、ging countriesThe economy is expected to maintain strong growth in 2024 due to the governments infrastructure development support measures.The consumer price index(CPI)in October was up+4.9%year-on-year(+5.0%in September),having moved closer to the central banks inflation target of+4.0%whichwould si

220、gnal the possible start of interest rate cuts.Real GDP Growth Rate Consumer Price Index(CPI)02020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9食料飲料燃料光熱費総合CPI(contribution vs.previous year,%pts)centr

221、al bank inflation target+4.0%(point that may trigger start of interest rate cuts)private final consumptiongross fixed capital formation valuablesimportsGDPgovernment expenditure change in inventoriesexportserrors/omissionsSource:Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC dataSource:Marubeni Research Inst

222、itute from CEIC datacorefuel/utility costsfood/beveragecomposite CPI Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Personal consumption and infrastructure-related investment strongConsumption/Production41IndiaDomestically,new car sales are increasing at a much faster pace than the same periods the year b

223、efore.However,companies are planning to raise prices from thebeginning of 2024,which may have a negative impact on consumer sentiment.Thus,there will likely be a surge in last minute demand(December)before prices ago up.Industrial production slowed in the manufacturing and electric power sectors in

224、September of 2023 due to the impact of heavy rains but is expected to continue expandingon the back of strong domestic demand and plant facilities expansion.Overall NewAutomobile Sales(volume)Production Index40506070809002002503003504002020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021

225、/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9乗用車販売台数消費者信頼感指数(右軸)(thousand autos)Note:The consumer confidence index is based on a Reserve Bank of India(RBI)survey(released bimonthly)505608002020/22020/42020/62020/82020/102020/122021/220

226、21/42021/62021/82021/102021/122022/22022/42022/62022/82022/102022/122023/22023/42023/62023/8鉱工業生産前年比（右#of passenger cars soldconsumer confidence index(right axis)(vs.previous year,%)industrial productionvs.previous year(right axis)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC dataSource:Marubeni Rese

227、arch Institute from CEIC data(2011-12=100)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.While the economy is strong,a cautious stance on interest rate cuts prevails over inflation and currency depreciation fearsMonetary Policy42IndiaAt the December meeting it was decided to keep the policy interest rate

228、unchanged for the 5th consecutive meeting.As the economy is strong there is little need for stimulusmeasures but the outlook for inflation remains uncertain.Inflation is expected to linger just above the central banks target(+4.0%year-on-year)during fiscal 2023.Under central bank policy as described

229、 above we expect interest rate cuts to start after mid-2024 following the general election(scheduled for April-May)and likely U.S.moves to cut interest rates.Monetary Policy Meeting Consensus/Contents(12 6-8)India Central Banks Outlook(12/6-8)General Outlook Economy:Domestic economic activity robust

230、 with GDP for the July-September period strong driven by investment and government spending.Prices:Octobers CPI stabilized at+4.9%vs.the previous year but risks remain for food prices,etc.Production:Rabi(dry season agriculture)*planting is 2/3 complete.Manufacturing healthy due to easing cost pressu

231、res Consumption:Booming mainly in urban areas.Rural areas also showing signs of recovery.Investment:Accelerating due to government spending and corporate(business)optimism.Policy Decisions Policy interest rate(repo rate)left unchanged at 6.50%.The Standing Deposit Facility(SDF)corridor floor rate re

232、mains unchanged at 6.25%;The Marginal Standing Deposit Facility(MSF)corridor ceiling rate and bank rate remain unchanged at 6.75%.The central bank decided to scale back its easing measures so that the inflation rate gradually approaches the central banks target while giving consideration to economic

233、 growth.Points of Concern Prolonged geopolitical turmoil,instability in global financial markets,and widening geographic and economic fragmentation are potential risks to this outlook.4-6(actua)7-9(actual)10-121-3Fiscal 2023Fiscal 2024Real GDPGrowth Rate+7.8%+7.6%+6.5%+6.0%+7.0%-(+7.8%)(+6.5%)(+6.0%

234、)(+5.7%)(+6.5%)-CPI(vs.previous year,%)+4.6%+6.2%+5.6%+5.2%+5.4%-(+4.6%)(+6.2%)(+5.7%)(+5.2%)(+5.4%)-Policy Interest Rate(end of period)6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.00%Rupee(end of period,vs.$)82.0983.0383.3083.1583.15-Note:Figures in parentheses are the previous forecast(10/2023).Note:Policy interest

235、 and rupee rates are LSEGs consensus(survey date:12/6/2023)*Indian agriculture is broadly divided into the kharif(southwest monsoon season)wet season and the rabi(wheat,rapeseed,etc.)dry season.Source:Marubeni Research Institute from Reserve Bank of India information/dataSource:Marubeni Research Ins

236、titute from Reserve Bank of India,LSEG data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Worries over worsening debt in Laos,Myanmar,Bangladesh and others Asia Emerging Economy Debt Risk:An Overview43Asia-DebtThe prolonged global high interest rate environment is expected to continue to exert near-term

237、pressure on emerging economy finances.There is increased wariness ofpotential default risks in fiscally fragile countries.In July of 2023 Sri Lanka,Bangladesh and Pakistan agreed to IMF bailouts.Overview of Debt Risks in EmergingAsian Economies(red:high risk)Note:Sri Lanka as of 2022 calendar year(d

238、efaulted on external debt in May 2022 and began debt restructuring negotiations).Political stability is rated on a scale of-2.5 to+2.5(the lower the rating,the more unstable).2023 data are estimates.Ratings in the red are below investment grade(i.e.,junk bond grade).Real GDPGrowth Rate(%)Current Acc

239、ount Balance(vs GDP%)FiscalBalance(vs GDP%)Government Debt (vs GDP%)ExternalDebt(vs GDP%)Foreign CurRes.(%short-term foreign debt)Foreign Cur.Res.(months of imports)Change in External Res.(year-to-date%)InflationRate(vs previous year%)Currency(year-to-datechange%)PoliticalStability(World Bank)5-year

240、 CDS Guarantee RateS&PMoodysFitch202320232023202323Q22022202223Q3202323Q3202323Q323/12Indonesia5.00.32.239.029.42.12.01.73.62.00.499.0BBBBaa2BBBMalaysia4.02.74.766.960.30.81.63.92.97.60.165.3A-A3BBB+Philippines5.33.04.857.627.13.92.52.05.82.00.790.6BBB+Baa2BBBThailand2.70.22.961.437.72.22.62.31.54.4

241、0.468.2BBB+Baa1BBB+Vietnam4.70.21.334.031.41.30.93.43.90.0142.4BB+Ba3BBLaos4.02.63.4121.7120.728.116.10.8Caa3CCC-Cambodia5.611.04.535.364.72.00.30.0B2Myanmar2.61.64.557.518.614.20.02.2India6.31.88.881.916.42.42.64.75.50.60.682.9BBB-Baa3BBB-Pakistan0.50.78.176.638.30.70.728.929.219.61.9CCC+Caa3CCCBan

242、gladesh6.00.74.539.420.517.09.03.71.1BB-B1BB-Sri Lanka7.81.010.2115.575.60.494.245.210.80.8SDCaRDSource:Marubeni Research Institute from World Bank,BIS,IMF,CEIC,LSEG data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Defaulted in May 2022,agreement reached after creditor meetings with Japan,India,others+

243、debt restructuring talks with ChinaAsia Emerging Economy Debt Risk:Sri Lanka44Asia-DebtSri Lanka defaulted on its external debt in May 2022.Debt restructuring negotiations with Japan and other creditor nations as well as China were largely agreed upon byNovember 2023.IMF support began in March 2023.

244、In October,an agreement in principle on debt restructuring was reached with China,the countrys largest creditor,and the IMFsexecutive board approved a second loan in December.Sri Lankas External Debt Balance(by creditor)Debt Restructuring Negotiation Outcomes4/2022Sri Lanka announces temporary suspe

245、nsion of external debt repayments.Requests support from IMFs support program.5Sri Lanka officially defaults due to inability to pay back external debt.9IMF reaches working-level agreement on support for Sri Lanka.2/2023First meeting of the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable(GSDR).3IMFs executive board

246、 approves approximately$3 billion in assistance to Sri Lanka(initial amount of$330 million).4Japan,other countries announce establishment of a Sri Lanka creditor conference(committee51st Sri Lanka creditor conference(online).7Sri Lankan parliament approves domestic debt restructuring plan.9IMF/Sri L

247、anka fail to reach agreement on first review of Sri Lankan aid10/11Sri Lanka creditor conference(Morocco)10/12Sri Lanka reaches general agreement with Export-Import Bank of China on debt settlement.10/19IMF reaches working level agreement on initial review of support for Sri Lanka.11/29The creditor

248、conference reached a basic agreement with Sri Lanka on debt restructuring(The treasurer,Mr.Kanda,“We understand the focus is on debt rescheduling under the same terms as China”).12/12IMF executive board approves$330 million loan to Sri LankaTotal Debt$41.5 billionChina($4.1 billion,10%of the total)i

249、s the single largest creditor country.The size of private sector credit($17.8 billion,43%of the total)is a distinguishing feature of Sri Lankas debt.Chinainternational organizations,etc.bi-lateral country creditorsprivate sector creditorsotherSource:Marubeni Research Institute from Sri Lankan govern

250、ment information/data,various media reportsSource:Marubeni Research Institute from various media reports Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Debt rise and currency depreciation at critical levelsAsia Emerging Economy Debt Risk:Laos45Asia-DebtIn Laos,public finances have worsened due to substant

251、ial outlays on coronavirus pandemic measures and infrastructure development.Growing debt and depreciating currency are at crisis levels.The government continues efforts to stabilize the currency,curb inflation in food and other goods,and deal with external debt.Has instructed businesses to seek paym

252、ent through banks to obtain foreign currency.In addition,the excise tax on some luxury goods has been raised as an import restriction to curb foreign currency outflows.The number of people leaving Laos to work overseas is rising due to the weak currency with the labor shortage appearing to be worsen

253、ing.There are also strong concern in other countries over a potential“debt trap”caused by increased borrowing from China.Laos Kip Market Rate(vs.$)Governments External Debt(as of 2021 end)05540455,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,00017,00019,00021,00023,0002020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/4

254、2021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10（対）CPI(右軸)weak kip(value at months end)ADB 9%IDA 7%other financial organizations 2%China 50%Thailand 6%Germany 3%Japan 2%other countries 5%private sector creditorsTotal Debt$10.4 billionLaos kip(vs.$)CPI(right axis)Source:Marubeni Resear

255、ch Institute from LSEG dataSource:Marubeni Research Institute from World Bank data45 Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Foreign exchange reserves continue to decline despite the start of IMF financial reliefAsia Emerging Economy Debt Risk:Bangladesh46Asia-DebtBangladesh maintained steady econo

256、mic growth despite the Covid pandemic,but following Russias invasion of Ukraine in 2022,soaring energy and food prices led toincreased payments for imports and a widening current account deficit.In July of 2022,it requested a$4.5 billion loan from the IMF to improve its international balance ofpayme

257、nts and combat climate change.Financing began in 2023,and an agreement was reached at the administrative level on the first review in October 2023.However,foreign exchange reserves continue to decline along side currency devaluation pressure due to global monetary tightening with reserves still rema

258、ining below the level set bythe IMF as a lending condition.IMF Loan Negotiation Outcomes External Debt20227/26Bangladesh asks for a$4.5 billion loan from the IMF.11/9IMF reaches working-level agreement on$4.5 billion loan to Bangladesh.20231/30IMF executive board approves$4.7 billion loan to Banglad

259、esh.JulyBangladesh central bank begins disclosing foreign reserves based on IMF standards.12/12IMF executive board completes first review of Bangladesh loans and approves additional financing of$4.7 billion.10,00020,00030,0006月7月8月9月10月11月12月外貨準備高IMF条件 Foreign Currency Reserves(IMF standards,(2023)(

260、$million)056200202021long-termshort-term(vs.GDP,%)foreign reservesIMF conditionSource:Marubeni Research Institute from Bangladesh central bank data,various media reportsSource:Marubeni Research Institute from World Bank information/data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.

261、Rapid interest rate hikes under new central bank governorMiddle East:Turkeys Monetary Policy/Inflation Trends47Middle EastUnder new central bank governor Erkan,the country changed its conventional easing policy and implemented rapid interest rate hikes of more than 30 percentage points in2023 to cur

262、b inflation.The consumer price index(CPI)in November was+62.0%year-on-year,still far above the policy interest rate,and the real interest rate remained negative.With localelections in March 2024,including in Istanbul,and a growing feeling the economy will slow,there are concerns that President Erdoa

263、n will try to intervene in monetary policy.Recent Direction of Turkeys Monetary Policy Consumer Price Index(CPI)5/28Erdogan wins presidential run-off6/9Hafize Gaye Erkan appointed central bank governor6/22Turkeys central bank raises policy interest rate by 6.5%points(8.5%15.0%,interest rate hikes be

264、gin)JulyRaised the value-added(VAT)and other tax rates11/23Turkeys central bank hikes the policy interest rate 5%points(35.0%40.0%)12/21Turkeys central bank raises the policy interestrate by 2.5%points(40.0%42.5%）05540452019/12019/42019/72019/102020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72

265、021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10(%)Turkeys policy interest rate(12/2023)42.5%50607080902020/12020/32020/52020/72020/92020/112021/12021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/92023/11他教育娯楽通信家具類等衣類交通輸送水道光熱費飲食宿泊食品総合

266、(degree of contribution vs.previous year,%pts)othereducationentertainmenttelecommunicationshealthcarefurnitureappareltransportation/transportwater utilities,etc.eating/drinking/accommodationfoodcompositeSource:Marubeni Research Institute from Turkeys central bank data,various media reportsSource:Mar

267、ubeni Research Institute from CEIC data Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Negative economic growth due to falling crude oil prices and additional voluntary production cutsMiddle East:SaudiArabias Economy and Voluntary Oil Production Cuts48Middle East Real GDP for the July-September period of

268、2023 was-4.4%versus the previous year,the first time in 10 quarters the economy has seen negative growth.A decline in oilexports as a result of extended voluntary production cuts weighed heavily on the economy.By industry,oil sector growth was down 17%from the previous year,while thenon-oil sector w

269、as up 3.5%.On November 30th Saudi Arabia announced it would extend its voluntary production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day(began July 1,2023)until the end of March 2024 fromthe original schedule to the end of December 2023.Although oil prices are expected to be supported by production cuts,the

270、oil sector in the countrys economy is expected tocontinue its decline.Real GDP SaudiaArabias Crude Oil Production 20 15 10 5051015202519Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3輸入輸出在庫変動総固定資本形成個人消費政府支出GDP0204060804681012142020/12020/62020/112021/42021/92022

271、/22022/72022/122023/52023/102024/32024/8自主減産幅OPEC+合意生産目標生産実績原油価格(右軸)Crude oil price:Arabian Light crude oil(OSP)(million barrels per day)($per barrel)voluntary production cuts began 7/2023(500,000 1,500,000 bpd)(degree of contribution vs.previous year,%pts)importschange in inventoriespersonal consum

272、ptionGDP exportsgross fixed capital formation government expenditureSource:Marubeni Research Institute from CEIC datavoluntary production cutsOPEC+agreed on production target actual production crude oil price(right axis)Source:Marubeni Research Institute from JOGMEC data Marubeni Corporation All Rig

273、hts Reserved.The situation in the Middle East rapidly deteriorated after Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023Middle East:Israeli/Palestinian Situation49Middle East Israeli/Palestinian Relations 1947United Nations General Assembly adopts resolution to partition Palestine(UN Resolution 181(II)1948Fou

274、ndingof Israel(1st Middle East war)1956Suez Crisis(2nd MiddleEast war)19676-Day War(3rd Middle East war),Security Council Resolution 2421973Yom Kippur War(4th MiddleEast war)1978Camp David Accords(Egypt-Israel peace treaty the following year)1982Israel invades Lebanon(also known as the Lebanon War o

275、r the 5th Middle East war)19871st Intifada(anti-Israel uprising)1993Oslo Accords(interim Palestinian autonomy agreement in Gaza and the West Bank)1995Oslo Accords II(establishment of the interim Palestinian Authority)Israeli Prime Minister Rabin assassinated(by young Jewish right-wing man opposed to

276、 peace)2000Camp David Meeting(no agreement reached),2nd Intifada occurs2005Israeli troops/settlers withdraw from the Gaza Strip(but strengthen blockade of the area)2006Hamas wins majority in the Palestinian Legislative Council,forms coalition with Fatah2007Hamas breaks with Fatah and takes control o

277、f Gaza by force(effectively controlling the area)2014(6)Hamas and Fatah form interim unity government(but dissolved in 2015)(7)Israel invades Gaza(highest casualties since 1973)2020(1)US Trump administration announces Middle East peace plan Peace to Prosperity(8)Abraham Accords(normalization of dipl

278、omatic relations between the UAE,others,and Israel)2021(5)Large-scale fighting breaks out between Hamas and Israeli forces in Gaza Strip2022(8)Palestine Islamic Jihad(PIJ)battles with Israeli forces(Hamas does not participate in fighting)(12)Establishment of the Netanyahu government in cooperation w

279、ith far-right parties2023(6)Israeli military launches large-scale attack on Hamas/PIJ in the West Bank(9)Expectations grow for normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel/Saudi Arabia(10/7)Hamas launches large-scale attack on Israel(10/27)Israeli army begins full-scale ground operations in

280、Gaza Strip(11/15)UN Security Council adopts draft resolution on Gaza Strip(humanitarian pauses/aid)Impact on the Middle East RegionIran/Suadi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations(3/2023)Qatar/Bahrain resume embassy operations(4/2023)Syria returns to the Arab League(5/2023)Saudi Arabia/Houthi ceasfi

281、renegotiations in the Yemen civil war(4/2023)Israel/Saudia Arabia talks to normalize diplomatic relations(10/2023)Signs of an agreement emerge between Israel/Saudi Arabia on diplomatic normalization mediated by the USMediated by ChinaThe relationship,which had been discordant even after the 2021 Al-

282、Ula Declaration(end of diplomatic relations with Qatar),has progressedArab League status suspended in 2011 due to the escalation of Syrias civil warU.S.,Europe,and others propose the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor(IMEC)concept(9/2023)Deterioration of the Israeli-Palestinian situation has

283、 a major impact on the entire Middle East region:Israeli-Arab relations worsening:Moves such as the 2020 Abrahamic Accords and recent negotiations to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia will be stalled or reversed(Bahrain has already decided to pull its ambassador to Israel and suspe

284、nd economic exchanges).Israel(U.S.)-Iran tensions escalating:U.S.wary of full-scale intervention by Iran,which supports Hamas,has strengthened deterrence posture around the Middle East(e.g.,dispatching two aircraft carrier strike groups).Increased activity of armed forces/groups in the region:Hezbol

285、lah,Houthis,and other Axis of Resistance forces have become more active in using force against Israel/U.S.forces.Also,seizures of cargo ships and attacks by drones in surrounding waters.Source:Marubeni Research Institute from various media reportsSource:Marubeni Research Institute from various media reports Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.Marubeni Research Institute1-4-2 Otemachi,Chiyoda-ku,Tokyo 100-8088 Japanhttps: