1、5 lab trends showing opportunity aheadUnited StatesMay 2024U.S.Life Sciences Property ReportR JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024Key findings2U.S.Life Sciences Property Report1Lease terms are shrinking in an occupier-favorable market4The supply-to-demand ratio is mediating but still has a long road to no
2、rmalization2Asset and neighborhood quality in Boston,the Bay Area and San Diego are driving leasing activity in a down market5Newly added vacancies set to fall precipitously after 20243Demand grows across the U.S.,particularly in the Bay Area| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024Lease terms are shrinking
3、in an occupier-favorable marketU.S.Life Sciences Property Report3U.S.average lease term(years)5.05.04.95.35.36.26.16.16.46.66.67.17.05.05.00000222023Q12024U.S.lease term by deal size(years)024681012142010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
4、2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q12024SmallMediumLargeSource:JLL Research;Greater DC,Boston,Denver,Philadelphia,New Jersey,Bay Area,Raleigh-Durham,San Diego,Seattle-2 mos.since 22-2 years since 22-1.4 years since 221| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024U.S.Life Sciences Property Report4The average lease term of
5、deals signed across the U.S.has shortened over time.Today,it is back in line with the early 2010s,when the average term was around five years.In the second half of the last decade,demand started to outpace supply,giving landlords greater leverage to negotiate longer lease terms,even when it didnt ne
6、cessarily align with the funding and growth trajectory of start-ups.More recently,however,supply has outpaced demand across markets,putting leverage back in tenants hands and allowing start-ups to push for shorter terms.This is particularly evident in smaller and midsize deals,which make up the majo
7、rity of leases being signed today.Compared to two years ago,the average term for middle-market deals has decreased by two years,while smaller deals have decreased by almost a year and a half,aligning to the market conditions of 10 years ago.Though there are few larger deals being done today,their te
8、rms have been more consistent in length.Most of these companies are established and stable,permitting them to make extended decisions about their space needs in comparison to smaller companies in the start-up phase.Lease terms are shrinking in an occupier-favorable market1| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC
9、.20240%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q1CoreEstablishedEverything elseU.S.Life Sciences Property Report5Total availability rateTotal absorption s.f.,since Jan.2023Source:JLL Research;Boston,Bay
10、 Area,San Diego-2,000,000-1,000,00001,000,0002,000,0003,000,000Core Class BEstablished Class BCore Class AEstablished Class A2Asset and neighborhood quality in Boston,the Bay Area and San Diego are driving leasing activity in a down market| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024U.S.Life Sciences Property Re
11、port6The availability rates in top-tier“core”submarkets(UTC and Torrey Pines in San Deigo,South San Francisco in the Bay Area,and East Cambridge in Boston)have significantly outperformed all other localities in those same metros in recent years.Despite availability spiking to levels never seen befor
12、e across the lab real estate market,the best product in the best neighborhoods remains the most sought-after destination for leasing activity.Hyperlocality,which takes into account asset quality as well as the specific location within a market,is the key driving factor in leasing and market performa
13、nce.To wit,when looking at both the premier“core”markets and other lab submarkets established long before the post-COVID runup,we find that the primary determinant of occupancy inflow has been the physical makeup of the building,with a combined net new inflow of users of 2 million s.f.since the star
14、t of 2023.Older product and office conversions that make up Class B product have seen just as much outflow in the same time period,showing that regarding the preference of users in a market replete with quality options,the clear choice has been to upgrade quality of the asset.Investors unable to obt
15、ain access to the core submarkets bet heavily on established submarkets,bringing online additional inventory into ecosystems without significantly growing demand.The result has been a trebling of availability in established submarkets since pre-COVID highs.2Asset and neighborhood quality in Boston,t
16、he Bay Area and San Diego are driving leasing activity in a down market| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024COVID boomtimesEnd of last cycleDowncycle acceleratesStabilizingGreen shootsDemand grows across the U.S.,particularly in the Bay Area7QOQ Boston,Bay area and San Diego aggregate lab demand change-4
17、0%29%-45%-35%-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%Q3 2019Q1 2020Q3 2020Q1 2021Q3 2021Q1 2022Q3 2022Q1 2023Q3 2023Q1 2024+1%average+17%average-18%average-12%avg+17%averageSource:JLL Research;Boston,Bay Area,San Diego3U.S.Life Sciences Property Report| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024U.S.Life Sciences Property Report8Loo
18、king at lab demand,it appears as though the cycle of demand softening has all but ended.Across the entirety of the U.S.demand has grown(albeit incrementally)since the fall of 2023,up 6.3%across the board in Q1.Most of this uptick in appetite for space is concentrated in the top three markets,particu
19、larly in the Bay Area.In Q1 2024,quarterly demand increased 29%across the Bay Area,Boston and San Diego combined.The Bay Area alone jumped from a shade under 2 million s.f.of demand at year-end 2023 to 2.7 million s.f.at the end of Q1.This increase was attributable not to one or two massive tenants
20、but to small to midsize start-upsshowing the breadth of new activity.San Diego is a particularly hot market now,largely on the backs of one of its biggest fundraising quarters on record,coupled with heightened big pharma activity that has made the supply-demand dynamics there the best of that in the
21、 big three markets.Aggregate demand across the U.S.is still 55%lower than the highs seen at the end of 2021.For the big three markets,the 6.9 million s.f.of demand today is at par with year-end 2019 levels,before the markets overheated.The chief difference today is that the oversupply in those marke
22、ts implies an extended opportunity for users to push economics and flow into the abundance of high-quality space.Demand grows across the U.S.,particularly in the Bay Area3| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.20240246810122019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3
23、2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1BostonBay AreaSan DiegoRaleigh-DurhamLos AngelesPre-2022,most markets never had a greater than 2:1 supply-to-demand ratioThe supply-to-demand ratio is mediating but still has a long road to normalization U.S.Life Sciences
24、 Property Report9R&D supply-to-demand(s.f.)ratioSource:JLL Research4| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024U.S.Life Sciences Property Report10There is a wide array of disequilibrium in the market for lab space in most major markets today.The top three markets(Boston,San Diego and the Bay Area)have followed
25、 similar market trajectories in the past two years as the majority of lab users charted a tight funding environment that has severely crimped the ability to sign lease obligations.What was once a market that was for years approximately 1.25:1-1.5:1 in terms of supply-to-demand for years jumped,and b
26、y midyear 2023 all markets were between six times and ten times supply-to-demand.With new available space growth slowing(or,in the case of Boston,plateauing)while demand grows,today the markets are clumped together at about 5.5 times the supply than demand.While there has been a clear oversupply in
27、Boston and the Bay Area,markets like Los Angeles and Raleigh-Durham have managed to maintain supply-demandratios much more in line with historical levels and that of a functioning market.Raleigh-Durham has seen supply in the cGMP space grow in recent quarters as demand is flat,pushing its ratio to o
28、ver three for the first time.Los Angeles is a rare example of a market in disequilibriumthis time not enough space is available to growing biotechs.Since tracking in that market began in early 2023,there has generally been 2.5 times more demand circulating the market than available space.The outlook
29、 for the rest of 2024 is such that the ratio will continue to drop in most major markets as new supply contracts considerably and demand continues to grow incrementally.With the ratio today nearly four times greater than from 2019 to 2021,it is likely the market could take three to four years(or mor
30、e in some submarkets)to return to a market where landlords and tenants have equal leverage in negotiations.4The supply-to-demand ratio is mediating but still has a long road to normalization| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024Newly added vacancies set to fall precipitously after 2024U.S.Life Sciences Pr
31、operty Report11Vacant deliveries s.f.,U.S.02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00012,000,00014,000,00016,000,00018,000,0002000224(f)2025(f)2026(f)2027(f)U.S.lab preleased%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q12024Sourc
32、e:JLL Research;Greater DC,Boston,Denver,Philadelphia,New Jersey,Bay Area,Raleigh-Durham,San Diego,Seattle 5| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024U.S.Life Sciences Property Report12There is a widespread acknowledgment that the downcycle in life sciences real estate was caused chiefly by a dramatic shift in
33、 the macro environment(primarily due to the rapid interest rate increases)coupled with a glut of new supply that was mismatched with shrinking demand.Today,all indicators are pointing to growth in demand and improving macro fundamentals in the space.The last hurdle to clear before the lab markets re
34、turn to something approaching equilibrium is now the oversupply of available space in nearly all markets.The primary culprit of the vast increase in vacancy in the last two years has not been sublease space(which rose by nearly 6 million s.f.in 2.5 years)but the delivery of new,unleased supply.Just
35、over 13 million s.f.of vacant space was added to the U.S.lab market in 2022 and 2023.This explains two-thirds of the increase in vacancy in that time.2024 could potentially deliver over 15 million s.f.of new vacancy unless demand materially changes in the next eight months.The good news from a landl
36、ords perspective is that after the wave of space delivering in 2024 is in the rearview,the new-supply outlook looks quite a lot better for 2025 and beyond.Currently,only 4.7 million s.f.of lab currently underway has the potential to deliver vacant from 2025 into 2027.This respite in new supply will
37、give the market some breathing space and the ability to dig out of the mound of oversupply.Total supply at yearend 2024 could be over 65 million s.f.,with aggregate demand sitting at 11.5 million s.f.today.5Newly added vacancies set to fall precipitously after 2024| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024Lab
38、 property outlookU.S.Life Sciences Property Report1317%in the past three quarters the same rate seen at its peak in 2021.This momentum is promising,but with supply-to-demand ratios hovering at 5:1 or higher in most markets,it is likely that market conditions will continue to deteriorate in the U.S.t
39、hrough the end of 2024namely in downward pressure of occupancy and rents.With a fast-improving supply outlook beyond 2024 coupled with demand fundamentals looking good,the lab real estate recovery will likely take years in some submarkets and come much sooner than anticipated in othersnamely establi
40、shed markets with a critical mass of preexisting users and high-quality lab stock.The life sciences real estate sector is at an interesting crossroads in the United States.Venture capital firms have raised record funding that has yet to be deployed.Big pharma has near-record amounts of ammunition fo
41、r acquisitions and a forthcoming patent cliff that will drive activity in that space.Company creation continued in 2023 despite massive headwinds.And equity values have begun to climb,which emboldened biotechs to tap the markets for secondary offerings at record numbers in Q1.Our analysis shows that
42、 even when armed with growth capital,biotechs are taking less space and taking 9-10 months on average to transact in the marketa marked increase from the five to six months in 2021.This means that even when funding starts to increase substantially,it will likely take two to three quarters to transla
43、te into elevated market activity.Even in this constrained environment,quarterly growth of demand for lab space in the top three markets has averagedReady to create breakthroughs?Click hereClick here to contact our experienced life sciences subject matter experts.| JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.202414Res
44、earch at JLLJLLs research team delivers intelligence,analysis and insight through market leading reports and services that illuminate todays commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrows challenges and opportunities.Our more than 550 global research professionals track and analyze economic
45、and property trends and forecast future conditions in over 60 countries,producing unrivalled local and global perspectives.Our research and expertise,fueled by real-time information and innovative thinking around the world,creates a competitive advantage for our clients and drives successful strateg
46、ies and optimal real estate decisions.Maddie HolmesSenior Analyst,Life Sciences Industry Research and Advisory Mark BrusoDirector,Boston and National Life Sciences Research Amber SchiadaHead of Americas Work Dynamics and Industry Research About JLL Life SciencesFor over 200 years,JLL(NYSE:JLL),a lea
47、ding global commercial real estate and investment management company,has helped clients buy,build,occupy,manage and invest in a variety of commercial,industrial,hotel,residential and retail properties.A Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of$20.8 billion and operations in over 80 countries aroun
48、d the world,JLLs Life Sciences team of 3,000+experienced professionals help biotech,pharma and med device organizations achieve breakthroughs.Driven by our purpose to shape the future of real estate for a better world,our solutions help fuel innovation,enhance efficiency,improve financial performanc
49、e and attract and retain top talent.We help our clients,people and communities SEE A BRIGHTER WAYSM.JLL is the brand name,and a registered trademark,of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated.For further information,visit McCready Head of Life Sciences,Americas Markets Chair,Global Life Sciences Advisory Bo
50、ard Kevin WayerDivisional President,Life Sciences,Education and Government,Work D COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP,INC.2024This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not necessarily purport to be a complete analysis of the topics discussed,which are inherently unpredictabl
51、e.It has been based on sources we believe to be reliable,but we have not independently verified those sources and we do not guarantee that the information in the report is accurate or complete.Any views expressed in the report reflect our judgment at this date and are subject to change without notic
52、e.Statements that are forward-looking involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause future realities to be materially different from those implied by such forward-looking statements.Advice we give to clients in particular situations may differ from the views expressed in this report.No investment or other business decisions should be made based solely on the views expressed in this report.Life sciences business Research authors|
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