1、An agenda for resilience, development and equality THE POST-COVID RECOVERY IRENA 2020 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright h
2、older. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. CITATION IRENA (2020), The post-COVID recovery: An agenda for
3、 resilience, development and equality, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi ISBN 978-92-9260-245-1 ABOUT IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, re
4、source and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. An intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geo
5、thermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org DISCLAIMER This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been tak
6、en by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequ
7、ence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to other
8、s of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delim
9、itation of frontiers or boundaries. 2 An agenda for resilience, development and equality THE POST-COVID RECOVERY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The report was authored by Rabia Ferroukhi, Dolf Gielen and Elizabeth Press with valuable contributions from Michael Renner, Diala Hawila, Xavier Garcia-Casals, Michael T
10、aylor and Ricardo Gorini (IRENA), and from David Jacobs (IET). Different sections benefited from reviews and input by Gayathri Prakash, Costanza Strinati, Samah Elsayed, Bishal Parajuli, Celia Garca-Baos, Carly Leighton, Emanuele Bianco, Carlos Guadarrama, Jinlei Feng, Mirjam Reiner, Sufyan Diab and
11、 Abdullah Abou Ali (IRENA), along with Amir Lebdioui, Laura El-Katiri and Divyam Nagpal (IRENA consultants). Steven Kennedy and Neil MacDonald edited the main chapters, while Caren Weeks produced the final report design. 3 FOREWORD This year was supposed to have opened the Decade of Action on sustai
12、nable development and climate change, with the transformation of the global energy system at its heart. While 2020 has thus far brought tragic loss of life and sudden economic uncertainty, it could yet turn out to be a crucial year and a turning point in these defining challenges of our time. The fi
13、rst Global Renewables Outlook, released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in April 2020, showed how to transform the global energy system in line with the Paris Agreement, bringing immense socio-economic benefits and welfare gains. The advantages of renewables to weather the risin
14、g economic storm were already apparent. A few months on, their resilience compared to the conventional energy industries based on fossil fuels has become even clearer. Now is the time to be strategic and ambitious, and to take the decisive step towards the structural shift needed to fulfil the 2030
15、Agenda for Sustainable Development and keep global warming at 1.5C degrees. The Post-COVID Recovery: An Agenda for Resilience, Development and Equality makes this connection clear. It points out how and where investments and policy measures focused on energy transitions can strengthen the economic r
16、ecovery, bolster sustainable development, and set the course for a fully decarbonised system by the middle of this century. Government policies and investment choices can create the self-perpetuating momentum to enact systemic change and deliver the energy transformation. The word “investment” is me
17、aningful these are not simply costs, but investments in our collective future and key enablers of economic growth, social resilience and welfare. The agenda proposed here is achievable. The burden would not fall on public finances alone, particularly as technologies keep developing and costs fall fu
18、rther. Importantly, stimulus investments will result in rapid job creation. To support a sustained shift in local economies, industrial policies and targeted education and training programmes are needed to build tomorrows workforce and foster diverse segments of the value chain. THE POST-COVID RECOV
19、ERY 4 Francesco La Camera Director-General, IRENA Investments to foster innovation for the energy transition will bring substantial local, as well as global, benefits. Technologies now exist with the potential to deliver a net zero energy system. By investing in their commercialisation, governments
20、and businesses can create value and ensure sustained and long-term growth. Green hydrogen, with its associated production and logistical requirements, represents one of the major strategic opportunities in the coming years. As the pandemic continues, its full impact is yet to be seen. IRENAs post-CO
21、VID recovery agenda does not seek to predict the future or speculate on how the current economic downturn will play out. Countries must follow their varied pathways, both in economic recovery and in their energy transitions. IRENA, as the agency supporting countries worldwide in their transition to
22、a sustainable energy future, reflects the diversity of views, priorities, abilities and needs of 180 Members and States in Accession. This report provides practical insights, options and recommendations for governments to consider. It can support informed policy-making as countries devise recovery m
23、easures specific to their circumstances. In suggesting how to navigate present times, it keeps a firm focus on the aims of inclusiveness and a just transition, while connecting short-term actions to medium- and long-term decarbonisation pathways. The COVID-19 crisis has, in some ways, provided an un
24、expected foreshadowing of the mounting climate emergency. This is the right moment to reassess long-standing assumptions, perceived barriers, and default decisions. The pandemic has shown us how quickly all we are accustomed to can change. But it has also shown that collectively and with a common pu
25、rpose, we are able to act decisively. I hope this report helps to uphold such a vision. The world after COVID- 19 can be more resilient, prosperous, just, and capable of tackling the challenges ahead of us. FOREWORD 5 PART I CONTENTS COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ENERGY LANDSCAPE . . . . . .
26、 . . . . . . 22 1. The global economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2. The energy sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 3. Renewable energy development . . . . . . . . . . 29 3.1 Impacts across the spectrum of renewables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
27、. . . . . . . . . . . 30 3.2 Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 3.3 Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.4 Supply chains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 3.5 Energy access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
28、. . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Executive summary . . . . . . . . . 10 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Way Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132 Abbreviations . . . . . . . . .
29、. . . . . . 142 Photo credits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Energy has become a crucial policy focus in the COVID-19 crisis THE POST-COVID RECOVERY 6 PART IIPART III INVESTMENT AGENDA FOR 2030 . . . . . . . . . . 42 4. Investments to accelerate the energy transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 4.1 Renewables and efficiency as key investment focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 4.2 Investment opportunities by sector and technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 5. Employment and growth benefits to 2030
31、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 5.1 Employment intensity in transition-related investment . . . . . . . . . . 56 5.2 Potential for medium-term job creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 5.3 Net gains in employm
32、ent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 5.4 Solar and bioenergy labour demand . . 61 5.5 Stronger value chains and job creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 5.6 Demand for key skills and job types . . 66 5.7 Triggering additional GDP growth . . . . 67 6. Measures
33、 needed through 2030 and beyond . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 6.1 Scaling up renewables across the board . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 6.2 Developing renewable energy industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
34、. . . . . . . . . . 76 6.3 Designing appropriate labour and educational policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 6.4 Mobilising green energy investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 6.5 Ensuring universal access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 OPPORTUNITIES TO STIMULATE
35、 ECONOMIC RECOVERY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 7. Short-term energy transition measures . 96 7.1 Using public finance strategically . . . . 96 7.2 Increasing national climate ambitions and raising renewable energy targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 7.3 Mai
36、ntaining existing projects and investment plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 7.4 Diversifying and developing supply chains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 7.5 Preserving livelihoods and maximising job creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 7.6 Ensuring reliable energ
37、y access amid disruptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 8. Energy transition investments driving short-term recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 8.1 Aligning short-term measures with domestic policy priorities . . . . . . . 121 9. Immediate employment and growth benefits . .
38、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 7 CONTENTS FIGURES Figure 3.1 Announced foreign direct investment in renewables and oil and gas sector, first quarter 2005 to first quarter 2020 (USD million) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Figure 4.1 Energy
39、transition investment under the Transforming Energy Scenario, 2019-2030 . . . . . . 47 Figure 4.2 New investment needs for renewable energy and grids by sector and technology group, annual averages, 2019-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40、 . . 54 Figure 4.3 Energy transition investment under the Transforming Energy Scenario, annual averages, 2019-2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Figure 5.1 Global average employment intensities of investments in renewab
41、le energy, energy efficiency and energy flexibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Figure 5.2 Employment intensity of transition-related investments (renewables, efficiency and flexibility), by world region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
42、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Figure 5.3 Energy sector jobs in 2030 under the Transforming Energy Scenario, globally and by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Figure 5.4 Energy sector job differentials b
43、etween the Planned Energy and Transforming Energy scenarios in 2030, globally and by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Figure 5.5 Renewable energy jobs in 2030 under the Transforming Energy Scenario, globally, by region, and by technology .
44、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Figure 5.6 Employment along several important renewable value chains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Figure 5.7 Distribution of the 29.5 million jobs in renewable energy by segment of the value chain: Transforming Energ
45、y Scenario in 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Figure 5.8 Distribution of jobs in solar PV, wind and bioenergy by segments of the value chain: Transforming Energy Scenario 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
46、. . . . . . 65 Figure 5.9 Distribution of solar (PV and solar water heaters), wind (onshore and offshore) and geothermal jobs in 2030 under the Transforming Energy Scenario, by occupations required . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
47、. . . . . . . 66 Figure 5.10 Average gain in global GDP per year between the Transforming Energy and Planned Energy scenarios, 2020 2030 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Figure 6.1 Elements of an enabling environment for off-grid renewable en
48、ergy solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Figure 6.2 Renewable energy project transactions involving institutional investors, by technology, 2009Q2 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Figure 6.3 Breakdown of green bond issuances by use of proceeds, cumulative volume, 2010-2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Figure 6.4 Ecosystem needs for supporting livelihoods with distributed renewable energy solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Figure 7.1 Human resource require
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