1、The Future of Working From Home Nick Bloom (Stanford) joint with Jose Barrero (ITAM) and Steve Davis (Chicago) World Bank, July 2020 WFH coverage in US newspapers doubled from 2000 to January 2020 MarissaMayerat Yahoorecallsa working-from-home team to the office, Feb 22nd2013 Source:Newsbank Access
2、World News collectionof approximately2000 nationalandlocal dailyUS newspapers.Shows the%ofarticles mentioning“working fromhome”or “WFH”.Dailydata plotted as a weekly average.Datauntil January 2020 Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul working from home due to injuries But increased another 120 times (12,000
3、%) by June 2020! March 10th start of COVID lockdown Source:Newsbank Access World News collectionof approximately2000 nationalandlocal dailyUS newspapers.Shows the%ofarticles mentioning“working fromhome”or “WFH”.Dailydata plotted as a weekly average.Datauntil June 2020 Working From Home Before COVID
4、Working From Home During COVID Working From Home Post COVID Tips on Working From Home Main source of data a fantastic BLS survey Surveyed continuously over 2017 and 2018 all wage and salaried workers (excluded self employed) Collected around 10,000 responses stratified across states, industries and
5、geographies https:/www.bls.gov/news.release/flex2.htm Only 15% of Americans have paid full WFH days Source: BLS data https:/www.bls.gov/news.release/flex2.htm Working from home is pretty balanced by gender and age Source: BLS data https:/www.bls.gov/news.release/flex2.htm But WFH much higher for mor
6、e educated higher-earners Source: BLS data https:/www.bls.gov/news.release/flex2.htm Working from home far higher for managers and professionals Source: BLS data https:/www.bls.gov/news.release/flex2.htm Working From Home Before COVID Working From Home During COVID Working From Home Post COVID Tips
7、on Working From Home During COVID 42% of US employees now full-time WFH, accounting for about two thirds of US GDP Source:Responsetothe question “Currently (this week) whatisyourworkstatus?” Response options were “Working onmybusinesspremises“, “Workingfromhome”,“Still employedandpaid,butnot working
8、“,“Unemployed,but expecttoberecalledtomy previous job “, “Unemployed, and do not expect to be recalled to my previous job “, and “Not working, and not looking for work “ Data from a survey of 2,500 US residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried out between May 21-29,
9、by QuestionPro on behalf ofStanfordUniversity.Sample reweighted to match current CPS. Sharesshownweightedby earnings and unweighted (share of workers) COVID WFH employees heavily drawn from city offices Source: Data from a survey of 2,500 US residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per yea
10、r in 2019 carried out between May 21-25 2020, by QuestionPro on behalf of Stanford University. Sample reweighted to match the Current Population Survey. These WFH employees used to spend heavily near workplaces 13 Source: Calculated from the answer to three questions: (i) “In 2019, when you worked a
11、t your employersbusinesspremises,roughlyhow much money did you spend during a typical day on food and drinks (e.g., lunch, coffee, snacks, etc)?”; (ii) “In 2019, when you worked at your employersbusinesspremises,roughlyhow much money did you spend in a typical week on shopping near work (e.g., gift
12、or clothes shopping during your lunch break or after work)?” and (iii) “In 2019, when you worked at your employers business premises, roughly how much money did you spend in a typical week in bars, restaurants and other entertainment venues that are near to your workplace?” Data from a survey of 2,5
13、00 US residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried out between Jun 28-July 3, by QuestionPro on behalf of Stanford University. SamplereweightedtomatchtheCurrent Population Survey. Note working from home under COVID is hard for four reasons 1) Kids 2) Job match only a t
14、hird of jobs can fully work from home Source: Response to the question “Could you do your job working from home?”Responseoptionswere “Completely, I would be 100%+ as efficient at home as at work “, “Mostly, I would be 80% to 90% as efficient at home as at work “, “Partly, I would be 50% to 70% as ef
15、ficient at home as at work “, “Barely, I would be less than 50% as efficient at home as at work “, “No, I could not perform my job at home “ Data from a survey of 2,500 US residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried out between May 21-25 2020, by QuestionPro on behalf
16、 of Stanford University.Samplereweightedto match the Current Population Survey. See also “How many jobs can be done at home” Dingel and Nieman (2020), Covid Journal of Economics https:/cepr.org/sites/default/files/news /CovidEcon1%20final.pdf, 3) Space If you have any photos to share of WFH challeng
17、es please send them to me at nbloomstanford.edu thanks Only 49% of Americans have their own room which is not their bedroom 18 Source:Responsetothe questions: “If you are working from home under COVID do you have your own room to work in?“ Data from a survey of 2,500 US residents aged 20 to 64, earn
18、ing more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried out between May 21-25 2020, by QuestionPro on behalfofStanfordUniversity. Sample reweighted to match the Current Population Survey. And many have internet issues - so that 35% of Americans cannot effectively WFH (they have 70% report WFH has mostly turn
19、ed out better than predicted Source: Response to the questions “Compared to your expectations before COVID (in 2019), how has working from home turned out for you?”. Response options are, for example, “Hugely better I am 20%+ more productive that I expected” and “Substantially better I am 10% to 19%
20、 more productive than I expected “ Datafromasurveyof2,500US residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried outbetweenJun28-July3,by QuestionProonbehalfofStanford University. Sample reweighted to match current CPS. Four factors driving this permanent post-COVID WFH shift
21、26 2) Stigma: pre-COVID negative stigma seems to have fallen away A 2017 image search on “Working from Home” source Four factors driving this permanent post-COVID WFH shift 27 2) Stigma: pre-COVID negative stigma seems to have fallen away WORK FROM HOME! EARN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS MONTHLY! Four facto
22、rs driving this permanent post-COVID WFH shift 28 Source: Response to the questions “Before COVID-19,“workingfromhome”was sometimes seen as “shirking from home.” Since theCOVIDpandemicbegan,howhave perceptions about working from home (WFH) changed among people you know? Data from a survey of 2,500 U
23、S residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried out between Jun 28-July 3, by QuestionPro on behalf of Stanford University. Sample reweighted to match current CPS. 2) Stigma: 70% report pre-COVID negative stigma seems to have fallen away Four factors driving this perman
24、ent post-COVID WFH shift 29 Source: Response to the questions “How many hours have you invested in learning how to work from home effectively (e.g., learning how to use video-conferencing software) and creating a suitable space to work?” and “How much money have you and your employer invested in equ
25、ipment or infrastructure to help you work from home more efficiently computers, internet connection, furniture, etc.?”. Data from a survey of 2,500 US residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried out between Jun 28-July 3, by QuestionPro on behalf of Stanford Universit
26、y. Sample reweighted to match current CPS. 3) Investments: substantial time and capital investments in WFH (plus R “Substantial return to pre-COVID activities, but I would still be wary of things like riding the subway or getting into a crowded elevator”; “Partial return to pre-COVID activities, but
27、 I would be wary of many activities like eating out or using ride-share taxis” and “No return to pre-COVID activities, as I will continue to social distance” Data from a survey of 2,500 US residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried out between Jun 28-July 3, by Quest
28、ionPro on behalf of Stanford University. Sample reweighted to match current CPS. 4) Social distancing: our survey data suggests norms will not fully revert Working From Home Before COVID Working From Home During COVID Working From Home Post COVID Tips on Working From Home Three key tips of WFH postC
29、OVID 1) Part-time regular 2 days per week at home (e.g. T,Th) 2) Optional only about 50% of employees want to WFH 3) Privilege under-performers warned, recalled to the office Indeed, the option to WFH 2 to 3 days per week very appealing (equivalent to a 13.2% pay increase on average) Source:Response
30、tothequestions“After COVID, in 2021 and later, how would you feel about the option to work from home 2 or 3 days a week?”. Response options are, for example, “Incredibly positive, as good as a pay rise of more than 20%” and “Strongly positive, as good as a pay rise of 10% to 20%” Data from a survey
31、of 2,500 US residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried out between Jun 28-July 3, by QuestionPro on behalf of Stanford University. Sample reweighted to match current CPS. COVID will relocate the modern office, not eliminate it Pre-COVID 5% of working days from home D
32、uring COVID 40% of working days at home Post COVID I predict about 20% of working days at home Indeed, demand to work in high-rise buildings has dropped 25% 35 Source: Response to the questions: “In 2019 (before COVID) where did you mostly work (when not at home)?“ and “In 2021+ (after COVID) where
33、would you like to mostly work (when not at home)?” Data from a survey of 2,500 US residents aged 20 to 64, earning more than $20,000 per year in 2019 carried outbetweenMay21-25,by QuestionPro on behalf of Stanford University.Samplereweightedto matchcurrentworking fromhome rations in the 2017/2018 Am
34、erican Time Use Survey. Conclusion: long-run (5-year) impacts via WFH (& Social Distancing) 1) Cities: Reduction in economic activity and day-time population density in city centers 2) Property: Reduction in value of 10+ story buildings, increase in value of office parks 3) Commuting: Reduction (par
35、ticularly for more educated employees) 4) Hiring: slow down (particularly for new graduates) due to WFH training challenges 5) Inequality: increase if WFH benefits (pay & welfare) accrue more to older-educated 36 Further Reading References 37 Blog: “How Working from Home Works Out”, Nick Bloom, June
36、 2020 https:/siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/how-working-home-works-out Blog: Working remotely or remotely working? Best practices in working from home post COVID-19, May 2020 https:/www.povertyactionlab.org/blog/5-18-20/working-remotely-or-remotely-working-best-practices-working-home-post-covid-19 Research paper: Does Working from Home Work?, QJE 2014 https:/nbloom.people.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj4746/f/wfh.pdf
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