1、Aarshi Tirkey The 5G Dilemma: Mapping Responses Across the World Aarshi Tirkey The 5G Dilemma: Mapping Responses Across the World 2020 Observer Research Foundation All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writ
2、ing from ORF. Attribution: Aarshi Tirkey, The 5G Dilemma: Mapping Responses Across the World, Observer Research Foundation, May 2020. Observer Research Foundation 20 Rouse Avenue, Institutional Area New Delhi, India 110002 contactusorfonline.org www.orfonline.org ORF provides non-partisan, independe
3、nt analyses on matters of security, strategy, economy, development, energy and global governance to diverse decision-makers including governments, business communities, academia and civil society. ORFs mandate is to conduct in-depth research, provide inclusive platforms, and invest in tomorrows thou
4、ght leaders today. Design and Layout: simijaisondesigns Cover image: Getty Images/Traitov and NASA ISBN: 978-93-89622-95-9 ISBN Digital: 978-93-89622-96-6 Preface . 2 abstract . 4 IntroductIon . 5 chaPter 1. huaweI: the comPany and crItIcIsms . 9 chaPter 2. resPonses: four cases . 16 chaPter 3. Key
5、concerns In major GeoGraPhIcal reGIons . 36 chaPter 4. the sItuatIon In other reGIons . 69 conclusIon . 88 about the author . 90 ConTenTs 2| the 5G dilemma: mapping responses across the world PRefACe The roll-out of the 5G network, the next generation of global communications, has not only emerged a
6、s a critical flashpoint in the emerging geopolitical contestation between China and western countries, led by the United States (US), but it has also engendered an interesting debate in India about its own choices. When it comes to adopting and deploying 5G networks, policymakers across the world ar
7、e facing a critical choiceone that will require them to carefully weigh and balance a broad range of economic, political, technical, and strategic considerations. Technology particularly information and communications technology has long played an important role in shaping geopolitical contours. In
8、the late 19th century, the United Kingdom (UK) was the first mover of telegraphy and submarine cable systems. By building these extensive communications network, the UK was able to maintain channels of communication with its colonies and consolidate the British Empire. The subsequent development of
9、radar technology by the UK gave it an edge over the German challenge during World War II. Following the war, British hegemony was directly challenged by the US as it made rapid advancements in telephony, becoming one of the first in the world to deploy a satellite communications system. Eventually,
10、the US and its allies used Americas extensive satellite networks to intercept and decode information during the Cold War period. The US use of satellite technology to spy on the flow of information and communication through its satellites has also led to concerns which echo some of the themes of the
11、 current debate surrounding the 5G network of Chinese company, Huawei. What makes this debate particularly challenging is the growing distrust around the world over Chinas rise because of its opaque decision-making system and its growing use of information asymmetry for geopolitical leverage. While
12、China stands to gain significantly by being the first mover of this technology, the US has continued to put pressure on its allies and partners against accepting Huaweis telecommunications equipment. There are growing concerns about China in the wider West which are likely to lead western nations in
13、to giving renewed impetus towards developing alternative 5G networks. This in turn can lead to the development of two politically and geographically divided 5G networks which may not be interoperable, thereby leading to lower economies of scale and higher transaction costs. This important study by A
14、arshi Tirkey, Junior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), is aimed at informing the wider policy debate in India on this important issue by explicating the responses of various nations across the world on the issue of 5G. It starts by comparing Huaweis position vis-vis other major telecommu
15、nications equipment manufacturers across several verticals before moving on in the second part to delineate the responses of the US, UK, Australia and Canada. The third part of the monograph explores the responses of nations from Europe and the Indo-Pacific, while the final section broadly examines
16、the Middle East, Latin America, Russia and Central Asia. 3 the 5G dilemma: mapping responses across the world | I would like to thank Aarshi for taking on this ambitious project, and Vinia Datinguinoo Mukherjee for taking this volume through to publication. If New Delhi is to make the best possible
17、decision on this highly complex matter, then it needs to carefully study global responses to the challenge. While the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic might delay the 5G rollout in India for some time, there is no wishing away this question. The Strategic Studies Programme at ORF brings you this monograph
18、to push an already animated debate on 5G in India towards a more serious policy conversation so that India and its policymakers can make prudent decisions at a time of enormous global flux. Prof. harsh V Pant Director, Studies and Head, Strategic Studies Programme Observer Research Foundation, New D
19、elhi May 2020 4| the 5G dilemma: mapping responses across the world The 5G network, the next generation of wireless technology, is a subject in ongoing tensions between the United States (US) and China. Washington has raised concerns that sourcing 5G equipment from Huawei and other Chinese companies
20、 will expose a country to national security risks, such as espionage and surveillance. For its part, Beijing has dismissed these concerns as a flagrant attempt to politicise a technological issue. Their confrontation, however, has transcended to a global levelboth the US and China have been engaging
21、 in diplomatic lobbying to influence the decision of countries on the sourcing of their 5G equipment. As countries in many parts of the world proceed to upgrade their networks, they are faced with decisions that will not only be based on technological or economic considerations, but will have immens
22、e strategic implications as well. This monograph provides an overview of the responses of countries to the 5G dilemma and the factors that have influenced them. Abstract 5 the 5G dilemma: mapping responses across the world | The 5G network, the next generation of wireless technology, has emerged as
23、one of the biggest turning points in geopolitical tensions in recent times. 5Gs unique features and applications mean that the technology will be critical for economic and technological advancement. At the same time, the country that controls and spearheads development of said technology will also g
24、ain the enviable position of becoming a technological leader. As power rivalry between the United States (US) and China intensifies, it is highly likely that the new networks will shape the competition for 21st-century dominance between two leading technology superpowers.1 5G is the fifth generation
25、 of cellular technology. In contrast with 2G, 3G and 4G networks, 5G will provide fibre-like connectivity over wireless networks through greater speed, higher capacity communication and ultra-low latency. These features will help unlock revolutionary use cases to support the demands of individuals,
26、businesses and governments alike. From reducing movie download time to a few seconds, to supporting industrial automation for manufacturers and to operationalising government initiatives such as smart cities, 5G is viewed as an enabler for social and economic development. The network will also power
27、 emerging technologies commonly associated with the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) such as artificial intelligence, robotics, autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, nanotechnology and quantum computing, which can bring long-term gains in efficiency, productivity and quality of life.2 An illustration
28、to further demonstrate 5Gs potential is its ability to support machine- to-machine communication and enhance Internet of things (IoT)3 applications utility in aquaculture and fisheries. In Indonesia, Telkomsela leading mobile operator and eFishery (a Bandung-based start-up) have jointly developed a
29、technology that enables a fish farmer to remotely control a fish feeder unit via a smartphone, instead of doing it manuallya method that is both expensive and inaccurate.4 With 5G, such applications can be deployed on a nationwide scale, improving both productivity and livelihoods for fish farmers.
30、Figure 1 details the three main features of 5G network, and commonly mentioned use cases and examples. Many countries across the world are keen on swiftly deploying 5G and are well on their way to design policies, strategies and roadmaps to set up these networks. Till Introduction 1 “The Geopolitics
31、 of 5G and its Impact on Business”, Chatham House, September 30, 2019, https:/www. chathamhouse.org/event/geopolitics-5g-and-its-impact-business. 2 Klaus Schwab, “The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond”, World Economic Forum, January 14, 2016, https:/www.weforum.org/agenda/2
32、016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means- and-how-to-respond/. 3 The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to a network comprised of physical objects capable of gathering and sharing electronic information. 4“MobileIoTCaseStudy:HowAsiaPacificIntelligentlyConnectstoIoT”,GSMA Intelligence, Febr
33、uary 2019, 15, 6| the 5G dilemma: mapping responses across the world now, mobile operators in these countries have collectively carried out over 300 5G trials, while 60 operators in 31 countries have commercially launched 5G services.5 While framing state policies, a critical concern for all stakeho
34、lders is sourcing equipment from an affordable, secure and technologically advanced supplier. With major suppliers ready to provide 5G equipment, open market principles will simply mean that the vendor with the best price and technology wins the most contracts. However, these general and logical con
35、siderations have become secondary factors in guiding stakeholders decision on 5G vendors. This is because the question of sourcing the equipment has become closely interconnected with the ongoing economic and technological rivalry between the US and China. Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Tec
36、hnologies Co. Ltd. (Huawei), has emerged as the leading supplier for end-to-end 5G equipment, forging ahead of its main competitors, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (Ericsson) and Nokia Corporation (Nokia). However, a small group of western nationsled by the UShave raised the alarm against equipment
37、 sourced from Huawei and similar Chinese tech companies. Alleging that such equipment could come built with “backdoors” to carry out cyberattacks, cyber-espionage and information warfare, and promote digital authoritarianism at Beijings behest,6 countries like the US and Australia have explicitly ba
38、nned Huawei citing national security risks. Other reasons, such as Huaweis opaque ownership structure and Chinas framework of intelligence laws, have further weighed against the companys credibility. The ban also appears to be closely motivated by the US stratagem to prevent China from gaining geopo
39、litical, economic and technological clout by being the first mover of the technology. If Huawei emerges as a leader in 5G technology, Chinas gains are undeniable and perhaps even inevitable. Beijing may well replace Washington as a leading cyber power, shaping future technological norms for generati
40、ons to come. Fig. 1: Three major use cases for 5G Source: “5G in the Middle East and Africa”, Ovum, 2018, 8, dow/tmt/whitepapers-and-pr/5g-in-the-middle-east-and-africa-pdf.pdf. 5“5G EnglishtextofspeechbyWangLei,coordinatorforcyberaffairs,atthesixthWorldInternetConference,Octo- ber24,2019, shtml. 8|
41、 the 5G dilemma: mapping responses across the world The third part looks at the responses in the two major geographical regions of Europe, and Asia and the Indo-Pacific. As Europe attempts to strike a delicate balance between its ties with the US and China, the single market of the European Union ha
42、s attempted to adopt a concerted approach to 5G security, though individual countries are free to respond to the Huawei question as they deem fit. In Asia and the Indo-Pacific, the China factor looms largemostly because of the nations geographical proximityand has largely inhibited countries from ta
43、king a hard position against Huawei. Part four deals with a broad overview of responses in other regions, namely the Middle East, Latin America, Russia and Central Asia, and Africa. In the Middle Eastwith the exception of Israelall counties are clear on this technological confrontation. Latin Americ
44、a is, so far, struggling to keep up with the high costs and investments demanded by 5G networks, due to which the 5G dilemma has mostly been confined to the regions largest country, i.e. Brazil. In Russia and Central Asia, and in Africa, the predominance of Huawei, Chinas burgeoning trade and invest
45、ment ties, and lack of a clear US strategy appear to play an important role in boosting Huawei as a lucrative option for not just 5G, but also for broader development and technology partnerships. The study concludes by assessing the economic, technical, security and strategic dimensions that have sh
46、aped the 5G strategies of countries, and examines the “balance sheet” for the US and China in their geopolitical contestation for 5G networks. 9 the 5G dilemma: mapping responses across the world | ChAPTeR 1. huawei: The Company and Criticisms company name number of 5G commercial contracts market share (2018) year established annual revenue in 2019 ($ bill
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