1、ALLIANZ GLOBAL WEALTH REPORT 2020 23 September 2020 04 Development of financial assets: Wealth immunity 18 Developments in global liabilities: Yesterday, all my (financial) troubles seemed so far away 38 Wealth distribution: Trend reversal 52 Appendices ALLIANZ RESEARCH ALLIANZ RESEARCH 2 A bumper y
2、earA bumper year In 2019, central banks saved the day and gave stock markets around the globe strong tailwinds, bestowing households with the fastest growth in financial assets since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC): Gross financial assets jumped by +9.7% in 2019 and reached EUR 192 trn. This increa
3、se was widespread, with both emerging and advanced countries growing in sync. But while advanced markets clocked the strongest growth since the turn of the century, for Emerging Markets, it was only the fastest growth since 2016 . Crisis? What crisis?Crisis? What crisis? Then, Covid-19 hit the world
4、 economy and sent it into the deepest recession in 100 years. But will this wipe out huge chunks of wealth? Our estimates suggest that private households have been able to recoup their losses of the first quarter, recording a slight +1.5% increase in global financial assets by the end of the second
5、quarter of 2020 as bank deposits, fueled by generous public support schemes and precautionary savings, increased by a whopping +7.0% since the end of 2019. Its very likely that private households financial assets could end 2020 in the black . Walking on the safe sideWalking on the safe side Fresh sa
6、vings set a new record in 2019, increasing by +18.7% to almost EUR 3,000 bn. The increase, however, was mainly driven by U.S. households, which accounted for 61% of all fresh savings. Saving behaviors are still tilted to the safe side: Only U.S. households (and German ones) were net purchasers of se
7、curities. Most other households share a penchant for liquidity and safety in a world of rising uncertainties and risks: Bank deposits remained by far the most popular destination for savings in 2019 for the ninth year in a row. At the same time, zero interest rates took a toll on insurance and pensi
8、ons: Their share in total fresh savings have fallen from almost 60% in the aftermath of the GFC to a mere 26% in 2019. Up in the airUp in the air Not surprisingly, securities were the best performing asset class in 2019: Booming stock markets led to an increase of +13.7%, after a decline of -5.1% in
9、 2018. Growth was never faster in the 21st century. The growth rates of the other two main asset classes were lower but still impressive: Insurance and pensions reached +8.1%, mainly reflecting the rise of underlying assets, and bank deposits increased by +6.4%. In fact, all asset classes clocked gr
10、owth significantly above their long-term averages since the GFC . To whom they have been givenTo whom they have been given The regional growth league table used to be dominated by Emerging Markets. Not so in 2019. The regions that saw the fastest growth in 2019 were by far the richest: North America
11、 and Oceania. In both regions, gross financial assets of households increased by a record +11.9%. As a consequence, for the third year in a row, Emerging Markets were not able to outgrow their much richer peers in the industrialized world. The catch-up process has stalled . Debt is inching upDebt is
12、 inching up Worldwide household liabilities rose by +5.5% in 2019, a tad below the previous years level of +5.7%, but also well above the long-term average annual growth rate of +3.9%. As debt grew slightly faster than GDP, the global debt ratio (liabilities as a percentage of GDP) inched up to 65.1
13、%. Over the last decade, the distribution of global debt has changed. While the share of Advanced Markets is in decline, Emerging Markets account for an ever rising portion of global debt, first and foremost Asia (excluding Japan): its share has trebled over the past decade to 23.9%. In terms of lia
14、bilities per capita, however, the region remains a minnow: with slightly above EUR 3,000 it stands at a fraction of the levels seen in the Advanced Markets (EUR 33,550). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Allianz Research Patricia Pelayo Romero, Expert Insurance patricia.pelayo- Arne Holzhausen, Head of Wealth, Insu
15、rance and Trend Research Michaela Grimm, Senior Expert Janine Junge, Research Assistant J sPmQnPyQyQ7N9R7NmOnNnPqQlOrRxOlOsQrNbRrQsPvPrMpNNZsQsN 3 America remains at the topAmerica remains at the top If we subtract debt from gross financial assets, we are left with net financial assets. In 2019, the
16、y increased by a whopping +11.1% to EUR 146 trn on a global level. Net financial assets per capita amounted to EUR 26,410 (+10.3%). However, discrepancies between household assets in richer regions and those in the worlds poorer regions remain huge. North America remains the richest region in the wo
17、rld, with average per capita assets of EUR 198,000 last year after deduction of liabili- ties. On the other hand, Eastern Europe was the region with the lowest net financial assets. At the end of 2019, households had an average of EUR 5,160 per capita . Trend reversalTrend reversal The prosperity ga
18、p between rich and poor countries has widened again. In 2000, net financial assets per capita were 87 times higher on average in the industrial- ized countries than in the Emerging Markets; by 2016 this ratio had fallen to 19. Since then, it has risen again to 22 (2019). This reversal of the catchin
19、g-up process is widespread: for the first time, the number of members of the global wealth middle class has fallen significantly: from just over 1 billion people in 2018 to just under 800 million people in 2019. This negative trend could be further exacerbated by Covid-19 . The scars of the crisis y
20、earsThe scars of the crisis years Looking at the development since the turn of the century, the rise of Emerging Markets remains impressive. Adjusted for population growth, the global middle wealth class grew by almost +50% and the high wealth class by +30%, while the lower wealth class declined by
21、almost -10%. The development in Western Europe, however, was the opposite: On the old continent, the number of members of the low wealth class increased and that of the high wealth class decreased. This reflects the crises of recent years the Great Financial Crisis and in particular the Euro Crisis
22、which mainly affected the southern periphery; it is countries such as Greece, Portugal and Italy where the low wealth class has grown in number A rich manA rich mans worlds world The richest 10% worldwide 52 million people in the countries in our scope with average net financial assets of EUR 240,00
23、0 together owned roughly 84% of total net financial assets in 2019; among them, the richest 1% with average net financial assets of above EUR 1.2 mn owned almost 44%. The development since the turn of the millennium is striking: While the share of the richest decile has fallen by seven percentage po
24、ints, that of the richest percentile has increased by three percentage points. So the super-rich do indeed seem to be moving further and further away from the rest of society . Beware of simplificationsBeware of simplifications The popular narrative of societies drifting further and further apart do
25、es by no means apply to all countries. There is a broad spectrum of wealth distribution within countries, ranging from fairly equal societies to highly unequal ones, as our proprietary Allianz Wealth Equity Indicator (AWEI) shows. Among the countries with significant distribution problems (AWEI scor
26、e above 5) are not only the U.S. but also the UK, South Africa, Indonesia, India and Russia, as well as Denmark, Sweden and Germany, hounded by high debt levels among large parts of the population (Sweden and Denmark) or the general shortage of capital-funded pension schemes as well as delayed reuni
27、fication (Germany). At the other end of the spectrum, (AWEI score below 3), the usual suspects can be found: Japan, some Eastern European countries such as Slovakia or Poland and some Western European countries, namely Belgium, Spain, and Italy . 23 September 2020 4 Allianz Research Figure 1: Figure
28、 1: Strongest financial asset growth since 2005 in 2019 DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL ASSETS: WEALTH IMMUNITY Social unrest, escalating trade conflicts and an industrial recession: 2019 was marred by political and economic troubles. But at least one actor rose to the challenges: central banks across the
29、globe. Not only did the number of central banks initiating a monetary policy easing in 2019 reach a record high since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), there was also no hesitation to use unconventional tools to inject liquidity into markets. As a conse- quence, global stock markets had one of their
30、 best years on record and private savers were shielded from the repercussions of an unruly world. The total gross financial assets of the private households1 in the 57 countries we cover in our report increased by +9.7% to EUR 192 trn at the end of 2019. This was not only a new record high in absolu
31、te amount but also the strongest growth since 2005 (Figure 1). Sources: national central banks, statistical offices, financial supervisory authorities, asset management and insurance associations, Thomson Reuters Eikon, Allianz Research. 1 Including non-profit organizations serving households. 2 Acc
32、ording to UN population figures and IMF GDP data, these 57 countries represented 72% of the world population and 92% of world nominal GDP in 2019. Forecast 5 23 September 2020 The buoyant stock market performance led to an increase of the asset class of securities (shares, bonds and invest- ment fun
33、ds) by +13.7%, by far the highest growth rate of the three main asset classes in private households portfolios. This dynamic development not only made good for the losses in 2018, but securities climbed to a new record high of EUR 77 trn. The growth rates of the other two asset classes were lower bu
34、t still impressive: Life insurance and pension fund entitlements reached a plus of +8.1%, mainly reflecting the rise of underlying assets, and amounted to EUR 58 trn by the end of the year. And bank deposits of the private households were fueled by precautionary savings in uncertain times and increa
35、sed by +6.4% to EUR 52 trn at the end of the year. In fact, all asset classes clocked growth significantly above their long-term averages since the GFC, which stay at +5.6% (bank deposits), +8.0% (securities), and +5.7% (insurance and pensions), respectively. 2019 was indeed a bumper year for savers
36、. 6 Allianz Research Crisis? What crisis? Covid-19 plunged the world economy into the deepest recession in 100 years. Stock markets went into free fall and private households saw their assets tumble, as expected when economies and markets are in turmoil as they were in the first quarter of the year
37、2020. But then the story of the pandemic took a rather surprising and positive twist, at least for savers. National central banks and fiscal authorities around the world responded quickly and boldly to contain the pandemic-related crisis and fired up unprecedented monetary and fiscal bazookas. This
38、will push global public debt to an all-time high of 130% of GDP in 2020, exceeding even the levels seen during the Second World War. It also immediately sparked a tech-led rally in stock markets. As a consequence, our estimates, based on latest available data, suggest that private households have be
39、en able to recoup their losses of the first quarter and recorded a slight +1.5% increase in global financial assets by the end of the second quarter of 2020. While securities balances were still in the red with -1.5%, bank deposits have increased by a whopping +7.0% since the end of 2019. This was m
40、ade possible by the generous public support schemes that cushioned the blow to incomes, and by the lockdowns that literally deprived households of the opportunity to consume as usual; the unprecedented levels of uncertainty did the rest to convince households that accumulating savings is the order o
41、f the day. Insurance and pensions, on the other hand, remained more or less flat (Figure 2). Looking briefly at the regional split, it becomes evident that the recovery in financial assets is mainly driven by the two heavyweights China and the U.S. In particular, Chinese households were able to prot
42、ect their wealth from the pandemic and increased their assets by more than +7% in the first six months of 2020, almost in line with the average of the last decade. Compared to this, the +1.4% increase in U.S. financial assets looks a little feeble but has to be seen against the backdrop of Covid-19
43、arriving later but much more forcefully to U.S. shores. Households in the Eurozone, on the other hand, should at least have been able to avoid wealth losses. Most households in Emerging Markets were not as lucky: financial assets declined across the board, although the declines were not dramatic (ar
44、ound -2% to -3%). As the pandemic situation remains highly unstable, forecasts for the rest of the year are uncertain. However, if we assume ongoing public support programs, a constrained recovery in economic activities, reflecting the ongoing fight against Covid-19 with targeted lockdowns but no fu
45、rther total lockdowns and thus no renewed deep plunge in economic activity as well as more or less stable stock markets and elevated saving efforts, we are optimistic that private households financial assets can end 2020 in the black. More precisely, we estimate that global financial assets will inc
46、rease by +3.3% to EUR 198 trn by the end of this year. This development is going to be mainly driven by the savings in bank deposits, reflecting the precautionary motive and the preference for highly liquid assets in households saving behavior in times of crises. Hence, we expect bank deposits to in
47、crease by +10.8% until the end of the year, setting a new record; the previous growth record was set during the GFC in 2008 with an increase of +7.9%. Securities should move sideward while insurance and pensions might be able to register a small plus of +1.0%. Although the +3.3% growth rate would ma
48、rk the fourth-lowest growth rate within the last two decades after 2001 and 2002, when financial assets grew by +0.7% in each year, and in 2008 and 2018 when declines of -7.8% and -0.3% were recorded, respectively this accomplishment is nothing to sniff at in a year when the Covid-19 pandemic turned
49、 almost all aspects of life upside down. 7 Figure 2: Figure 2: Bank deposits are the preferred asset class in the crisis, y/y in % U.S. exceptionalismU.S. exceptionalism Although the main boost for last years extraordinary asset growth came from the stock markets, fresh savings3 played a role, too: They set a new record and increased by +18.7% to almost EUR 3,000 bn (Figure 3). The increase in the flow of fu
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