1、Inclusive Green Financing Initiative ( IGREENFIN) : Greening Agricultural Banks ii) limited availability of farmers iii) risks of locust invasion due to climatic conditions in time of pandemic could negatively affect farm yields; iv) Food waste due to logistics bottlenecks arising from lockdowns and
2、 restricted movement, and limited adapted storages facilities for fresh agricultural products, which lead to post harvest losses 3. In addition, disrupted food chains, economic disruptions and vulnerability mean most jobs do not ensure sufficient levels of income for workers to afford adequate food
3、for themselves and their families. These factors also lead to fluctuations in the agricultural market for both inputs and outputs when disaster and climate management policies and technical capacity in support of agriculture are limited under a changing climate. Combined, these risks result in lower
4、 yields, loss of productive assets, loss of income, loss of productivity, increased costs, and changes in taxes and market access (IFAD, 2018). Furthermore, as documented in the CBD/WHO 2015 Report, the spread of pathogens is exacerbated by climate change, ecosystem destruction, land use change, def
5、orestation, biodiversity loss, and the removal of essential protective barriers. The efficiencies of global trade have paved the way for increasingly uniform farming systems and removed the firebreaks of biodiversity. PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.2 GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 5 OF 4 4
6、. In a post COVID-19 context, climate change will amplify existing stress on water availability and will interact with non-climate drivers and stressors (gender inequality, youth unemployment, illiteracy, conflict, and political instability) to exacerbate the vulnerability of agricultural systems wh
7、ich most of rural communities depend on in West Africa. In 2020, conflict/insecurity, weather extremes, desert locusts, economic shocks and COVID-19 are expected to be the key drivers of acute food insecurity in the region. According to ECOWAS, there could be an increase of the number of people at r
8、isk of a food insecurity and malnutrition from 17 to 50 million people in the region between June and August 2020 because of the impacts of COVID-19. UNECA projects 27 million Africans will be pushed into extreme poverty, resulting from the slowing of African economic growth to 1.8 per cent in the b
9、est-case scenario or a contraction of 2.6 per cent in the worst case because of COVID-19. The high sensitivity of the agricultural sector to increasing climate change and climate variability combined with high poverty rates are the main sources of West African countries vulnerability to food insecur
10、ity and malnutrition. These can affect a farmers ability to repay financial obligations and lead to a loan default. The degraded environmental conditions have fostered the growing pattern of north south and rural urban migration taking place in the regions, especially within Burkina Faso and Mali to
11、 other neighbouring countries (Senegal, Cote DIvoire and Ghana). Combatting the negative impacts of climate change through this programme contributes to building the overall resilience of farming systems. Increasing value chain stability and ensuring job availability in the future will lead to great
12、er financial security and less dependence on negative coping mechanisms under negative changing climatic conditions (shocks) or future pandemics. This programme will therefore build the adaptive capacity and resilience of agricultural systems to climate change in the targeted areas. 5. Climate relat
13、ed risks in agriculture will have significant impact on the financial system particularly in the post COVID context. Projected climate risks are considered as potential sources of financial risks and SDGs risks when not addressed adequately. Climate risks are estimated in terms of costs but also opp
14、ortunities particularly in the agricultural sector. Given the exposure of the agricultural sector to climate change, public development banks (agricultural banks), microfinance institutions, regulators, central banks readiness is needed to build the resilience of the entire West African financial sy
15、stem and vulnerability to climate risks. So far, the financial system faces institutional and regulatory challenges including; climate risk management practices at project level (standards), absent or limited green lending products, lack of instruments and tools such as ESG benchmarks, environmental
16、 data and awareness for decision making on investments and policies in agriculture. 6. Agriculture remains the most important sector in West African economies (accounting for 43.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2018) but is extremely vulnerable to climate shocks (floods, droughts, diseases, in
17、tense rain, wildfires and locust outbreaks, among others). It employs more than 70 percent of the labour force in Mali, Burkina, Senegal, Cote dIvoire, Ghana and the main source of livelihood for rural communities and job creation particularly for youth and women (World Bank, 2018). Landlocked count
18、ries (Burkina Faso, Mali) are major cereal producers (cowpeas, millet, maize, cotton) and export to neighbouring countries while Senegal, Cote DIvoire and Ghana are major exporters of groundnuts, cashew, cotton, cocoa and coffee in international markets. The resilience of small holders to climate ch
19、ange is reduced by the impact of COVID-19. For instance Senegal, Cote dIvoires cashew prices have recorded a 47% drop in prices as demand for cashews in the domestic market, while demand for cocoa beans from Cote dIvoire and Ghana (two cocoa largest world producers) has reduced across Europe. It is
20、expected there will be increased in unemployment and falls in household monetary incomes, with the closure of several micro enterprises along agricultural value chains and a drop in the income of households affecting savings or access to credit. The unanticipated shock of COVID-19 underscores the ne
21、ed for a shift from “business as usual” practices to a more forward looking package that invests in the productivity, sustainability, and the resilience of food systems. 7. Agricultural production and productivity in the region are already low by global standards and anticipated to fall even further
22、 due to the impact of climate change and COVID 19, not only because of the biophysical changes, but also because of the limited economic, financial and institutional capacity to cope with key risks (climate, biological, price, labour/ health, policy and political). Agriculture in the West Sahel is a
23、lmost entirely rain-fed and limited to three to four months of variable summer rainfall (JuneSeptember; annual precipitation between 200 mm to 1200 mm); making it highly vulnerable to increasing climate variability and putting at risk the large percentage of the regions people that rely on agricultu
24、re as their primary source of livelihood. FAO estimates 20-80% of the inter-annual variability of crop yields is associated with weather phenomena and 5-10% of national agricultural production losses are associated with climate variability (FAO, 2019). In addition, agriculture suffers 26% of the dam
25、age and loss during climate-related disasters. PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.2 GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 6 OF 4 In the Sahel region, dry spells and droughts lead to increased evaporation, which can reduce water resources and diminish soil moisture and fertility, with negative implica
26、tions for agricultural yields. In tropical and coastal zones, where famine is already widespread, heavy rainfall events, flooding, and reduced overall annual rainfall are among the main climate threats to agricultural production (USAID, 2018). The generally nutrient limited soils in the regions, whi
27、ch are being degraded by overgrazing, continuous cropping, and deforestation, will be further threatened by desertification and sand intrusion brought about by reduced precipitation and higher temperatures. This will lead to increased food prices and food insecurity. Within the agriculture and food
28、security sectors there are also several transboundary issues that may be intensified by climate change such us the spread of animal diseases, land degradation and pollution, food contamination, and natural resource management 8. The climate trend during the last 50 years shows drier and hotter tempe
29、rature in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso and the Northern part of Cote dIvoire. Temperature has risen with an average temperature increase between 0.6-0.8C, slightly higher than the global average increase (Agrhymet, 2018). A reduction in cumulative rainfall with less rainfall in the western Sahel (Bur
30、kina Faso, Mali, and Mauritania) has been observed. Between 1970s and 1980s, the region experienced one of the most severe multiyear droughts of the last hundred years with a 30% decrease in rainfall. Since the 1980s rainfall has not returned to pre- 1960s levels and recurrent drought have been obse
31、rved over the last year. The lengthening of the dry season with rainfall less frequent and intense, over shorter wet seasons, has resulted in a greater frequency of extreme rainfall events causing extensive flooding events. According to UNFCCC, observations of erratic rainfall, the shift of isohyets
32、 to the south, increased occurrences of dry spells have resulted in severe multi- year droughts, such as the droughts in 1972-1990 and the more recent droughts over the last 10 years. 9. These frequent natural disasters, including droughts, floods, and increase in water stress, soil erosion diseases
33、, intense rain, wildfires and locust outbreaks, among others associated with have reduced agricultural yield production. For instance, four major drought-related emergencies have been reported in less than ten years in Burkina and Mali. These have resulted in average harvest decreases of 25% and sta
34、ple crop price decreases of up to 50%. The agricultural sector is extensive, still poorly mechanized in the five-targeted countries. Consequently, many pastoral communities have been forced to become semi- agricultural because of prolonged droughts, thus losing their way of life (AGRHYMETH, 2016). A
35、ccording to USAID, 2017, if the expansion of farmland slows, stagnant yields and population growth could lead to increased food insecurity. Table 2: Drought frequency and response by country ( source, 2020) Country Period Number of severe droughts Frequency of droughts (1 in x years Cost of response
36、 (average) USD million Burkina Faso 2000-2017 4.0 4.0 20.0 Cote dIvoire 1972-2016 4.0* 3.0 10.0* Ghana 1983-2015* 3.0* 3.0* 10.0* Mali 1983-2017 14.0 4.0 20.0 Senegal 1983-2017 12.0 5.0 56.0 * Based on the statement that the effects of drought have weakened the Ivorian economy, especially droughts o
37、f 1983, 1998, 2010. Source: ARC. National Contingency Plan in Cte dIvoire. 2018. Available at https:/www.africanriskcapacity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/C%C3%B4te-dIvoire_-Operations- Plan_201901_EN_modifs.pdf * A tradition of systematic evaluation of the impact of catastrophic events does not ye
38、t exist in Cte dIvoire. However, a rough estimate in the 2018 contingency planning for drought estimated that a payment of ten (10) million US dollars would provide food assistance to 90 000 people (6 million) and a distribution of rice seed and agricultural inputs to 20 000 vulnerable small farmers
39、 (4 million) in the regions of Poro, Kabadougou, Tokpi, Bounkani, Worodougou,Gontougo and Bafing (Total population of these regions is 6.5 million people). Source: SODEXAM. Drought conditions and strategies for their management : Case of Cte dIvoire. 2016. Available at https:/www.droughtmanagement.i
40、nfo/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/WS6-Cote-dIvoire- Presentation.pdf *Source: https:/knowledge.unccd.int/sites/default/files/country_profile_documents/1%2520FINAL_NDP_Ghana.pdf * Development of Drought Early Warning Stsetm implemented by the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN) with support fro
41、m the Green Climate Fund (GCF): Source: https:/knowledge.unccd.int/sites/default/files/country_profile_documents/1%2520FINAL_NDP_Ghana.pdf 10. Climate projections suggest that the West Sahel and northern parts of Cote dIvoire and Ghana will be hotter and drier with more frequent extreme events. In m
42、ost scenarios, temperature rise will accelerate so that the continent on average could be between 2 and 6C warmer by end of this century (ACMAD,2020). The average temperature increases are set to be high with an extremely marked North-South gradient, directly affecting soils and ecosystems due to a
43、higher level of evapotranspiration. The CORDEX RCMs projections of a regional decrease in the length of the rainy season increase in the dry-spell length, and an increase in heatwave frequency intensity and duration highlights the need to determine the right type and PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE
44、 Template V.2.2 GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 7 OF 4 timing of major agricultural activities, specifically to drought prone crops. Temperature projections over the Sahel for the end of the 21st century from both the CMIP3 GCMs (SRES A2 and A1B emission scenarios) and CMIP5 GCMs (RCP4.5 scenarios) approx
45、imates 3C above the late 20th century baseline (Meehl et al., 2007; Fontaine et al., 2011; Diallo et al., 2012; Monerie et al., 2012). Temperature increases higher than 2C are projected to decrease millet and sorghum yields by 1525 percent by 2080. The projections are suggesting a decrease in rainfa
46、ll, particularly in the Sahelian zone, with some areas in the southern Sahel receiving moderately higher although erratic rainfall. Climate models predicts crop yields may fall by 10 to 20 percent by the year 2050 because of warming and drying, but there are places where yield losses may be much mor
47、e severe (Jones and Thornton, 2003). Studies cited by UNEP also suggest that because of changing rainfall patterns and degraded land, Burkina Faso could potentially lose their entire rain fed agriculture by 2100, while in Mali and Senegal cereal harvests might decline by 30 percent. Furthermore, the
48、 intensity of extreme weather phenomena (floods, sand storms and drought) is likely to increase, while over the past 30 years, over 75 percent of the West African population has been affected at least once every two years by this type of hazard. Precipitation will continue to decrease, as temperatur
49、es are expected to increase by between 1 and 1.72C for 2031-2050 compared to the reference period 1986-2005 (source climate analytics, 2020). Under such various climate scenarios, agricultural production is expected to drop by at least 20 percent which will reduce food availability and economic returns from agricultural products. PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE Template V.2.2 GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 8 OF 4 11. Climate change will significantly affect water resources, crucial for agricultural production and i
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