1、3 The State of Fashion 2021 The State of Fashion 2021 7 CONTENTS Executive Summary 89 Industry Outlook 1013 GLOBAL ECONOMY 1633 01: Living with the Virus 17 Jumia: Balancing Speed with Discipline in a Crisis 20 02: Diminished Demand 23 Covid-19 and the New Era of Luxury 29 CONSUMER SHIFTS 3457 03: D
2、igital Sprint 35 Kering: Fast-Tracking a Digital Upgrade 38 Alibaba: Innovating for Chinas Advanced Ecosystem 41 04: Seeking Justice 45 Louis Vuitton: Hardwiring Accountability in a State of Flux 48 05: Travel Interrupted 52 Selfridges Group: Managing the Pivot to Local Shopping 55 FASHION SYSTEM 58
3、99 06: Less is More 59 A More Circular Fashion Industry Will Require a Collective Effort 63 07: Opportunistic Investment 67 08: Deeper Partnerships 70 Shahi Exports: Reforming the Fashion Supply Chain 74 Risk, Resilience and Rebalancing in the Apparel Value Chain 77 09: Retail ROI 81 H companies in
4、the remaining 4 quintiles are classified as non-resilient companies 22 The State of Fashion 2021 Less than a year after ringing the ceremonial bell at the New York Stock Exchange to celebrate the IPO of the first African start-up listed there, Juliet Anammah and her colleagues were devising an emerg
5、ency action plan to liaise with health ministries in the eleven countries where Jumia operates. The recently promoted executive was used to representing the e-commerce heavyweight at the highest levels of negotiations with governments and global business leaders, but nothing could have prepared her
6、for the agility and diplomatic resolve that she and leaders like her needed during the pandemic. In more ways than one, 2020 has been a rollercoaster year for “the Amazon of Africa.” But as an e-commerce platform EXECUTIVE INTERVIEW Jumia: Balancing Speed with Discipline in a Crisis Juliet Anammah C
7、hairwoman, Jumia Nigeria; Head of Institutional Affairs, Jumia Group Dubbed Africas answer to Amazon, Jumia has seized the e-commerce opportunity in dynamic markets like Nigeria, Kenya, Senegal, Morocco and Egypt, though it didnt achieve the growth levels analysts expected during the pandemic. Next
8、year, the e-tailer will be even more disciplined about its path to profitability, suggests Juliet Anammah, a veteran executive at the group. by Robb Young 23 selling everything from luggage to laptops and food to footwear, Jumia remains an attractive channel for brands to access consumers on the con
9、tinent, and Anammah remains bullish about the firms prospects in 2021. How much more room is there for Jumia to grow in the year ahead and what role do you now play in the continents online acceleration? Is it different from the role you played in the first eight years of growth? We still have decad
10、es of growth ahead of us. If you look at the penetration of e-commerce on the continent, at best, its still about two percent, three percent. There is still a whole lot of upside in terms of more transactions that we can bring online, and we are addressing this in multiple dimensions. Were increasin
11、g the variety of products that can be found on Jumia. Today, a consumer can buy virtually anything on Jumia not just fashion products and beauty products. They can buy airtime for mobile phones and pay bills on Jumia. And within each of the categories where we operate, the assortment is growing ever
12、y year. All of these are things that are relevant in terms of our growth trajectory in the context of Africas ever- increasing e-commerce penetration rate. Some people credit Jumia with “revolutionising” e-commerce in Africa. Others accuse it of being a clone of Amazon, citing the successive roll-ou
13、t of services like Jumia Prime, Jumia Express and so on. What do you say? Id say: one, you dont reinvent the wheel. It makes no sense to go and start rewriting the rule book on how e-commerce works. Consumers around the world are already used to a certain way of interacting with e-commerce platforms
14、. Its important that you give them something that theyre familiar with but adapt it. So we said, “How will consumers trust that the item will be delivered to them?” because logistics is a big challenge in Africa. We had to solve the trust question by creating a cash on delivery option with three att
15、empts to make a delivery, a payment solution and all kinds of special service infrastructure. I call it adapting the e-com- merce model for the African environment and customising it to the African consumer. We couldnt just take a model from another region, and then implant it in Africa. That wouldn
16、t have worked. But for people to now say, “Oh, this is the Amazon of Africa,” it means they recognise that what were doing for Africa is what Amazon did in the US. So, to the extent that the “Amazon of Africa” nickname makes me feel anything, it makes me feel happy. Jumia provides a sales platform f
17、or consumers in Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, Cte dIvoire, Ghana, Senegal, Uganda, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. How do you manage to optimise the customer experience for such a hugely diverse group of markets with different regulatory environments and different consumer behaviours across tha
18、t colossal expanse of the continent? We didnt have the luxury of having big, established logistics players that could reach every part of the country who were also willing to take cash on delivery, so we had to create a network of third-party logistics providers. We just built the systems that would
19、 allow us to then leverage that and the data systems for it. Thats impressive. But how do you localise Jumias assortment across African nations with so many different wardrobe preferences not only between the different markets but also within each market? Assortment differs by market because we oper
20、ate across 11 countries but there are certain brands that we have partner- ships with on a global level But if you take Nigeria, for example, there are small local designer outlets producing affordably priced clothing for work and some creating African native fashion for special occasions. We also c
21、ustomise our marketing. In certain markets, YouTube is important and others it is different social media. To what extent do you feel that Jumias path to profitability has been impacted by Covid-19? How do things look now in the run-up to 2021? During the Covid pandemic we didnt need to spend as much
22、 on sales and advertising as we would have done in normal times so overall, youll find that net losses were reduced between 2019 to 2020. Of course, we had taken some decisions earlier on about staff costs and other operational expenditures that matured by the second quarter of 2020, which held our
23、gross merchandise value (GMV) expenses down further. In terms of the top line, it wasnt phenomenal growth. 01. LIVING WITH THE VIRUS 24 The State of Fashion 2021 Some people expected us to see triple-digit growth over 2020 versus 2019. Their perception was that the whole of Africa was ordering onlin
24、e, which is not the case. You need to understand that its a long-term play for e-com- merce. Its not a two-year stint and you march on to profitability. It takes a pretty long time. Where we are right now, were very much focused on our account profitability. You were the CEO of Jumia Nigeria for fou
25、r years before being appointed chairwoman in 2020. How have you led your team to source the right products for the mass market? We are a platform for everyone. Were agnostic. So you have top brands from Procter now theyre buying it because its beautiful. Its a wonderful way to show their personality
26、, their taste level and to discreetly stand out.” Chinese group Fosun acquired a majority stake in French jewellery brand Djula in late March 2020 through its Yuyan subsidiary in the midst of the pandemic, which she said is evidence that there is market confidence in the categorys growth potential.
27、Personalising Retail Everywhere In 2019, e-commerce made up between 10 and 15 percent of global luxury sales, with Europe and China at the lower end of the range and the US at the higher end. By 2020, the figure had risen by at least 50 percent across all three regions, according to McKinsey. At onl
28、ine luxury marketplace Farfetch, second-quarter sales were up nearly 75 percent from a year earlier to $365 million. Gross merchandise value or the cost value of goods sold on the site was up 48 percent. By October, the average market capitalisation of internet retailers was up 42 percent from Decem
29、ber 2019.45 Single brand retailers from Nike to Louis Vuitton also saw an uptick online, which they attributed in part to personalising the shopping experience in every channel. In the past, the “one to one” experience, as Nike calls it, has been reserved for only the top tier of customers. Now fash
30、ion brands must make every customers experience feel more unique through a mix of artificial intelligence, human recommen- dations and direct contact with salespeople using client communication apps and customer relation- ship management tools. This wont be easy to scale, as it requires a mix of sop
31、histicated technology and a savvy, well-educated salesperson. “Itll be interesting to watch how they do it and if they can do it,” Kim said. One outcome may be fewer, larger transac- tions. “So many consumers have shifted to digital that an older demographic is now converting,” said Adam Freede, chi
32、ef executive of US-based Most experts believe that the mens ready-to-wear market will continue to expand, whatever the future business-casual wardrobe looks like. GLOBAL ECONOMY 35 Madaluxe, a third-party distributor for fashion brands. “Customer acquisition costs per order have come down.” Whatever
33、 happens, the physical retail store will be as important as ever even if there are fewer of them overall. “Stores are really going to have a heyday,” Berry said. “Changed consumer behaviour is going to put pressure on the stores that do exist to be super interesting.” Big Guns and Creative Independe
34、nts The luxury industry was already busy consolidating long before the pandemic, as giants squeezed out mid-sized brands unable to compete with the scale of strategic conglomerates. While each brand in a conglomerates portfolio commonly pursues independent strategies, synergies at the group level me
35、an brands still benefit in just about every area across talent acquisition, marketing spend, retail footprint and supply chain. Those best positioned to prosper in the next phase of industry growth are conglomerates like LVMH and Kering and vertically integrated independents like Chanel and Herms, c
36、ompanies that have the ability to directly manage inventory and can easily stop and start production. “If you dont have your supply chain, e-commerce, etc. up and running in all markets, then youre a weakened player,” said Anne Line Hansen, founder of AH Advisory, a boutique European consulting firm
37、. “Without the infra- structure, mid-sized brands are better off being consumed by a group.” However, Berry believes there may be an opportunity now for mid-sized brands to come together and form new entities that are better positioned to go up against the giants. “The world has become very complica
38、ted but conglomer- ates are going to get too big,” she said. “There is going to be some consolidation between mid-sized companies that are more family- and culture-driv- en and less corporate.” And yet, industry consolidation does not mean upstarts will be edged out completely. During the pandemic,
39、many young, independent brands have actually thrived. Some because they operate on such a lean budget using the pre-order drop model to drive sales and werent weighed down by excess from the spring season. Others managed to gain mindshare because they have been nimble enough to react rapidly to chan
40、ging customer sentiments either by creating relevant products or responding to cultural movements in a sensitive, authentic way. While the conglomerates are certainly safer than most, a crop of independent brands in the accessible luxury space, including Brooklyn-based Telfar, Los Angeles fashion co
41、llective Brain Dead and sweatpants connoisseur Entireworld, made waves and sold out product, proving that there is still room for smart, original ideas that appeal to the next generation of luxury consumers, who are more attuned to false marketing. The luxury customer of 2020 is well-educated about
42、the product and has high expectations, and theyre only going to become more knowledgeable in the years to come. “Niche brands are willing to test and listen to what their consumers want,” Hansen said. “It has forced everyone to be more creative.” “If you dont have your supply chain, e-commerce, etc.
43、 up and running in all markets, then youre a weakened player. Without the infrastructure, mid-sized brands are better off being consumed by a group.” IN-DEPTH 36 The State of Fashion 2021 03. DIGITAL SPRINT 04. SEEKING JUSTICE 05. TRAVEL INTERRUPTED CONSUMER SHIFTS 37 03. DIGITAL SPRINT Digital adop
44、tion has soared during the pandemic, with many brands finally going online and enthusiasts embracing digital innovations like livestreaming, customer service video chat and social shopping. As online penetration accelerates and shoppers demand ever-more sophisticated digital interactions, fashion pl
45、ayers must optimise the online experience and channel mix while finding persuasive ways to integrate the human touch. With the global pandemic keeping people at home, 2020 may be remembered as the year in which fashion retail made a definitive shift online. Over a period of just eight months, e-comm
46、erces share of fashion sales nearly doubled from 16 percent to 29 percent globally, jumping forward six years worth of growth.46 There are of course clear winners from this behavioural shift, with online marketplaces faring especially well. Zalando saw new customers rise by 39 percent year-on-year i
47、n April47 and Farfetch posted a 74 percent uplift in revenue in the second quarter, compared with the same period the previous year.48 Meanwhile, digital traffic to the websites of the top 100 European brands surged by 45 percent in April, compared with March.49 The relative strength of digital chan
48、nels was reflected in stock market performance too. While the fashion industry as a whole saw net declines in valuations, digital players were more resilient than their physical peers. From January to October, internet retailers had on average 42 percent higher valuations than other listed fashion c
49、ompanies, when indexing stock prices to December 2019.50 Adobe Analytics analysis of fashion e-commerce site visits shows the widening gap between the best and the rest. While overall US and EMEA digital revenues grew 24 percent year-on-year in the period of January to September 2020, the top 5 percent grew revenues 220 percent, while the bottom 25 percent declined by 2 percent.51 Over the next year, momentum in e-commerce will only accelerate. Fashion executives see digital as the biggest opportunity by far for 2021, with 70 percent of exe
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