1、 PRIMARY CONTACT Gavin Gunning Melbourne +61-3-9631-2092 Emmanuel Volland Paris +33-14-420-6696 Alexandre Birry London +44-20-7176-7108 SECONDARY CONTACTS Brendan Browne New York +1-212-438-7399 Cynthia Cohen Freue Buenos Aires +54-11-4891-2161 Giles Edwards London +44-20-7176-7014 Elena Iparraguirr
2、e Madrid +34-91-389-6963 Osman Sattar London +44-20-7176-7198 Contacts continued on page 107 Global Banks Country-By-Country 2021 Outlook: Toughest Test For Banks Since 2009 November 17, 2020 Global Banking Outlook Nov. 17, 2020 2 Key Takeaways A key risk is that economic disruption from COVID-19 ge
3、ts worse or lasts longer than our base case of a sustainable economic recovery in 2021 and a widely available vaccine by mid-2021. Additional tests to banks include overhangs from forbearance and other public supports, anticipated higher corporate insolvencies, and stress in property. We believe man
4、y banking jurisdictions globally will not recover to pre-pandemic financial strength until 2023 or beyond. This year has been hard for banks. Next year may be even harder. S and “Global Debt Leverage: Risks Rise, But Near-Term Crisis Unlikely, Oct. 27, 2020), however, then we can plausibly expect a
5、negative step-change in bank credit quality in 2021. Global Banking Outlook Nov. 17, 2020 4 The health crisis and consequent economic recovery is likely to continue to be variable across geographies in 2021. Several noteworthy differences are already evident heading toward 2021 (see chart 2). In som
6、e high income economies (mainly in Asia) the virus is currently contained with zero (or close to zero) new infections and deaths; however, significant constraints on borders, mobility, and social gatherings will continue to hinder the economic recovery. In some other high income economies, notably t
7、he U.S. and in Western Europe, the virus is resurging. Many emerging economies are challenged to contain the virus and we expect recovery of some banking systems to pre-pandemic levels will be slow. Furthermore, on the pathway to recovery, factors influencing emerging markets bank credit quality may
8、 be volatile. Table 1 GDP Growth Forecasts Current forecast (%) Difference from previous forecast (percentage points) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 U.S. 2.2 (4.0) 3.9 2.4 2.6 (0.2) 1.0 (1.2) (0.6) (0.20 Eurozone 1.3 (7.4) 6.1 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 China 6.1 2.1 6.9 4.8 5.2
9、0.0 0.9 (0.5) 0.0 (0.1) Japan 0.7 (5.4) 3.2 1.0 0.9 0.0 (0.5) (0.2) 0.0 0.0 India* 4.2 (9.0) 10.0 6.0 6.2 0.0 (4.0) 1.5 (0.5) 0.0 Brazil 1.1 (5.8) 3.5 3.0 2.9 0.0 1.2 0.0 (0.4) 0.0 World* 2.8 (4.1) 5.3 3.8 4.0 0.0 (0.3) 0.0 (0.2) 0.0 *The fiscal year for India is April of the reference year to March
10、 the following year. *This is calculated with purchasing power parity exchange rates. Sources: S and Global Credit Conditions: The K Shaped Recovery, Oct. 7, 2020). Support measures have largely counterbalanced the effect on bank credit as significant economic volatility flowed through to bank borro
11、wers. Well-conceptualized and well-timed actions by authorities will be critical in 2021. Should monetary and fiscal stimulus diminish too early then a drawn-out recovery is likely. This could result in more damage to households and corporate balance sheets-and consequently to banks. Public authorit
12、ies must contend with a delicate balancing act, however. Measures that benefit banks in the short term could contribute to an overhang of household and corporate debt not commercially bankable in normal times, or introduce moral hazard by encouraging banks to relax lending standards or misprice risk
13、s, among other vulnerabilities (see Five Dangers For Credit Markets Awash With Liquidity, Oct. 29, 2020). Banks are likely to be facing years of lower profitability due to the squeeze on interest margins in an environment of ultra-low interest rates. A continuation of orderly funding and derivatives
14、 markets will be vital for banks to navigate the lingering effects of COVID-19. While not our base case, any major disruptions in funding or derivatives markets would compound adversity for banks. Chart 3 COVID-19 Related Fiscal Measures EMEmerging markets. Source: S and Global Debt Leverage: Risks
15、Rise, But Near-Term Crisis Unlikely, Oct. 27, 2020). This higher stress is indicated our baseline for the 12-month trailing speculative-grade corporate default rate, which we expect to double in the U.S. (to 12.5% by June 2021, from 6.3% in September 2020) and Europe (to 8.5%, from 4.3%) (see Global
16、 Debt Leverage: Risks Rise, But Near-Term Crisis Unlikely, Oct. 27, 2020). We fully expect that bank asset quality and profitability (taking into account high credit costs and low interest margins) will remain under significant pressure in 2021. Despite the surge in provisioning in 2020, based on ba
17、nks expectation of increased nonperforming assets, we see a risk that further top-ups will be required. Lower profitability will continue to translate into weaker internal capital generation. Higher government leverage has the potential to constrain the future capacity, if not the willingness, of so
18、me sovereigns to provide extraordinary support for systemically important banks, in the event it were required. For banking jurisdictions where we currently factor government support into bank ratings, however, we do not anticipate any material diminution in supportiveness over 2021. Chart 4 Global:
19、 COVID-19 Aggravates Debt Rise p-Projected. Source: S and U.S. And European CMBS COVID-19 Impact: Retail And Lodging Are The Hardest Hit, Sept. 28, 2020). Rating actions were most severe in the SASB subsector backed by retail malls-a sector which is experiencing considerable stress on several fronts
20、. Chart 5 Rating Actions On U.S. Retail And Lodging SASB And Large Loans Transactions (i)As of September 2020. SASB-Single-asset/single-borrower. Source: S as well as primary producer and mineral-exporting economies. New benchmark rates: The planned introduction of new interest rate benchmarks in 20
21、22 is another critical development worth monitoring, as banks transition. Management of related operational, commercial, legal, and financial risks will be key. Global Banking Outlook Nov. 17, 2020 9 A Note On Our Coronavirus Assumptions S equally critical is the widespread availability of effective
22、 immunization, which could come by the middle of next year. We use this assumption in assessing the economic and credit implications associated with the pandemic (see our research here: As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates accordingly. Global Banking Outlook Nov. 17
23、, 2020 10 Global BICRA Developments In 2020 BICRA-Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment. Data as of Oct. 27, 2020. Source: S therefore, a number of corporations entered the pandemic in fragile conditions. If economic activity takes longer to recover, some businesses sustainability could come unde
24、r pressure. Economic rebound could take longer than expected. If the economic recovery is much weaker than we expect after the pandemics shock dissipates, banks operating performance could struggle. 1.7% 0.9% 1.4% 2.9% 3.2% 4.0% 6.5% 12.0% 8.0% Loan growth Sector-average growth in loans. NPA ratio N
25、onperforming assets as a % of systemwide loans. RoAA Sector-average return on average assets. a-Actual. e-Estimate. f-Forecast. 2021f 2020e 2019a RoAA NPA ratio Brazil Loan growth Primary Credit Analyst Cynthia Cohen Freue Buenos Aires, Argentina + 54-11-4891-2161 Nov. 17, 2020 19 Global Banking Out
26、look Chile | BICRA Group: 3 Banks Are Coping With The Pandemic, But Other Challenges Remain Key takeaways The pandemic and residual effects of social unrest in late 2019 are hampering banks asset quality and profitability. This is occurring amid the populations lower GDP per capita and the countrys
27、higher corporate debt than among peers. Therefore, rated financial entities in Chile have negative outlooks, including the state-owned bank, reflecting the outlook on the sovereign. The authorities in Chile took several early actions to ensure banks liquidity and solvency, as well as measures to buf
28、fer the impact of the economic contraction and higher unemployment. In addition, the recent allowance to access pension savings provided additional relief to individuals facing financial hardship. Key credit drivers Strains stemming from the pandemic and last years social unrest. The GDP contraction
29、 in 2020, because of the pandemic and the residual effects of last years social unrest, is augmenting economic risk and stressing banks asset quality, credit losses, and profitability. Chilean corporations and enterprises also have higher leverage and individuals have lower income levels than those
30、in Chiles global peers. The regulator took actions to ensure stability and to mitigate the impact. Authorities took several measures to shore up liquidity and solvency in the system and to diminish the pandemics pernicious effect on the economy. Key assumptions Credit growth in 2020 driven by guaran
31、teed credit lines. We expect credit lines under the FOGAPE program (loans guaranteed by the government) including the refinancing of existing loans to cause an estimated nominal lending growth of 6%-8% in 2020. For 2021, we expect guaranteed loans to start amortizing and to be replaced by regular lo
32、ans that accrue higher rates. Worsening asset quality and higher provisions. We expect the deterioration in asset quality to materialize in 2021, as the borrower relief measures begin to be phased out. We forecast nonperforming loans to be about 2.0%-2.2% in 2020 and 2.5%-3.0% in 2021 amid climbing
33、unemployment and mitigated by the withdrawal of pension savings. Recovery in 2021. Conditions in the country should start improving in 2021, especially in the second half, given better prospects for global economy, especially in China, and higher copper prices. What to look for over the next year So
34、cial issues are at the forefront and the new constitution is under discussion. Discussions about changes to the constitution will start in 2021 after the recent plebiscite in favor. These were planned for April but postponed due to the pandemic. The completion of such discussions will enable the eco
35、nomic recovery to strengthen. Final impact of shocks still unclear. It will take time to measure the final effects of the pandemic, social unrest, and the measures taken to mitigate them on companies and banks loan portfolios. The performance of SMEs and large corporate groups are factors to monitor
36、, which could spill over into the banking sector. 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% Loan growth Sector-average growth in loans. NPA ratio Nonperforming assets as a % of systemwide loans. RoAA Sector-average return on average assets. a-Actual. e-Estimate. f-Forecast. 2021f 2020e 2019a RoAA NPA ratio Chile Loan growth P
37、rimary Credit Analyst Ivana Recalde Buenos Aires, Argentina + 54-11-4891-2127 2.1%2.2% 2.8% 10.3% 8.0% 6.0% Nov. 17, 2020 20 Global Banking Outlook Colombia | BICRA Group: 6 COVID-19 Will Slow Credit Growth And Hit Asset Quality And Profitability Key takeaways Credit rebound will remain on hold unti
38、l 2021-2022 because of the coronavirus pandemic. The weakened economy will take time to recover due to high unemployment, hurting asset quality and profitability metrics. Regulatory improvements aim to align banks capitalization with international standards and improve funding diversification. Key c
39、redit drivers The more positive pre-pandemic economic conditions will allow faster recovery in 2021-2022. The governments measures to contain the virus, which include a moderate monetary and fiscal stimulus, will help restore pre-pandemic economic dynamics, which in turn will support Colombian banks
40、. Expansion to Central America provides diversification but pressures capitalization. We estimate that one-third of the three largest banks balance sheets are exposed to Central America. This boosts diversification, but the goodwill related to acquisitions stresses capitalization levels. The adoptio
41、n of Basel III capitalization rules in Colombia continues despite the pandemic. However, once these rules are implemented, its not clear that banks risk-adjusted capitalization will strengthen in relation to international standards. Key assumptions Credit rebound wont occur until 2021-2022. Given th
42、e strong link between economic growth and credit expansion, we expect the latter wont accelerate until 2021-2022 when we expect the economy to grow 4.5% and total loans to expand about 8%. Asset quality will worsen due to the pandemic. We expect the nonperforming assets ratio to be 4.5%- 5.0% in 202
43、0-2021-fully covered by reserves-while loan loss provisions would represent 4% of total loans. Sinking interest rates and deteriorating asset quality will hit profitability. Since the beginning of the year, the central bank has lowered its policy rate by 250 basis points, which along with higher pro
44、visions will pressure profitability. We expect return on assets to be about 0.5% in 2020-2021. What to look for over the next year Evolution of banking regulation changes. Implementation of Basel III capitalization rules could have repercussions on our risk-adjusted capital ratios, and banks will li
45、kely seek to increase retail deposits to strengthen regulatory net stable funding ratios. Colombias weakening external profile could bring risks to the banking system. COVID-19 and the slump in oil prices are widening the current account deficit. This could hurt banks through higher external funding
46、 costs and by the impact on borrowers that operate in economic sectors sensitive to currency fluctuations. Developments in nonperforming assets due to COVID-19. Even before the pandemic, unemployment was rising in Colombia. As a result of COVID-19, unemployment has spiked, and the impact on banks as
47、set quality will depend on the severity and duration of the pandemic-related recession. 0.5%0.5%0.5% 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 1 % 1 % 0.5%0.5%0.5% 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 1 % 1 % 0.5%0.5%0.5% 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 1 % 1 % Loan growth Sector-average growth in loans. NPA ratio Nonperforming assets as a % of syst
48、em wide loans. RoAA Sector-average return on average assets. a-Actual. e-Estimate. f-Forecast. 2021f 2020e 2019a RoAA NPA ratio Colombia Loan growth Primary Credit Analyst Alfredo Calvo Mexico City +52-55-5081-4436 0.5%0.5%0.5% 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 1 % 1 % 0.5%0.5%0.5% 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 1 % 1 % 0.5
49、%0.5%0.5% 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 1 % 1 % Loan growth Sector-average growth in loans. NPA ratio Nonperforming assets as a % of systemwide loans. RoAA Sector-average return on average assets. a-Actual. e-Estimate. f-Forecast. 2021f 2020e 2019a RoAA NPA ratio 1.9% 0.4% 0.8% 3.3% 5.0% 4.5% 5.0% 8.0% 10.0% Nov. 17, 2020 Global Banking Outlook Costa Rica | BICRA
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