1、Global Investment Outlook Q4 2018 BII0918U/E- FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S. GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK SUMMARY2 Kate Moore Chief Equity Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Elga Bartsch Head of Econom
2、ic and Markets Research BlackRock Investment Institute Isabelle Mateos y Lago Chief Multi-Asset Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Jeff Rosenberg Chief Fixed Income Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Richard Turnill Global Chief Investment Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute SETT
3、ING THE SCENE . 3 Macro outlook and themes EM UNDER PRESSURE .48 EM downdraft EM spillover debate Flows and China Fixed income Equities MARKETS . 9 Assets in brief We revisit our 2018 investment themes and take a deep dive into the prospects for emerging market (EM) assets after an unexpectedly draw
4、n-out selloff. Themes: We see the steady global expansion rolling on, underpinned by above-trend U.S. growth. Yet the range of potential economic outcomes is widening. Stimulus-fueled surprises and productivity gains could boost growth and risk assets, whereas escalating trade disputes and rising pr
5、ice pressures could create downside risks. Gradual increases in U.S. rates are tightening financial conditions globally, and have contributed to bouts of volatility and sharply depreciating EM currencies. This argues for a greater focus on making portfolios more resilient to downside shocks. EM unde
6、r pressure: The EM world has been hit by a series of country-specific shocks and tightening financial conditions pressuring those with the greatest external vulnerabilities. This was not how we envisioned the EM story playing out this year. We see room for a recovery, especially in equities. Chinas
7、economy looks resilient, EM fundamentals are generally robust, and we may be near a peak in idiosyncratic risks. Valuations reflect much potential downside. The Federal Reserve is set to keep raising rates gradually and could start to slow its balance sheet wind-down next year. Risks include escalat
8、ing trade frictions, hefty portfolio outflows, and a hawkish Fed pushing up global rates and the U.S. dollar. Market views: We favor equities over bonds but see an uneasy equilibrium between rising macro uncertainty and strong corporate earnings growth. This calls for portfolio resilience, expressed
9、 through our preference for quality exposures and U.S. equities over other regions. In fixed income, we favor short-term bonds in the U.S. and an up-in-quality stance in credit. Rising risk premia have created value in EM equities, including in the hard-hit tech sector. We prefer selected hard-curre
10、ncy EM debt over the local variety on relative valuations and the insulation they provide against currency depreciations. BII0918U/E- FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S. SET TING THE SCENE MACRO OUTLOOK AND THE
11、MES3 Great repricing Asset yield comparison, January vs. September 2018 0 5 10% EM equities U.S. high yield credit U.S. IG credit U.S. 10-year Treasury U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield DM equities EM USD debt Earnings yield Higher U.S. rates have contributed to a repricing JanuaryCurrent Past performance
12、is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters, September 2018. Notes: Indexes used from left to right are: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2-year and 10-year U.S. Governm
13、ent Benchmark Indexes, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Credit Index, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield Index, JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Yield in the two equity markets is represented by 12-month forward earnings yield. Heightened uncertainty
14、Distribution of two-year forward U.S. GDP forecasts, 2018 vs. 2017 Economic uncertainty is rising, with a skew to the downside 0123% Annual U.S. GDP growth August 2018 (2020 forecast) August 2017 (2019 forecast) Relative frequency of forecasts Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from
15、Consensus Economics, September 2018. Notes: The lines show the distribution of two-year forward U.S. GDP growth forecasts as of August 2018 and August 2017. The vertical axis shows the relative frequency of each forecast. Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass. Macro outlook and themes A sol
16、id near-term global growth outlook is clouded by persistent and elevated uncertainties. Above-trend U.S. economic activity is underpinning G7gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Consensus views for G7 growth havepulled back relative to our BlackRock Growth GPS, creating the potential for upside surp
17、rises. U.S. fiscal spending is picking up into year-end, keeping the risk of economic overheating on our radar. This comes as the Federal Reserve presses on with its normalization campaign, bringing interest rates closer to “neutral” levels that may stoke worries policy will actually become tight. T
18、rade tensions show few signs of abating. Tariffs have the potential to disrupt supply chains, increase price pressures and dent confidence. Economists have become divided on the two-year outlook compared with last year: More are penciling in downside forecasts. See the Heightened uncertainty chart.
19、We believe global growth can sustain at above-trend levels, even as the rangeof potential macro outcomes widens heading into 2019. The three themes from our Midyear investment outlook still ring true: awidening range of growth outcomes, tighter financial conditions and a risingneed for portfolio res
20、ilience. Tighter financial conditions partly played out through a stronger U.S. dollar. This exacerbated the troubles of the most vulnerable EM economies. Trade frictions and the dollars path remain key forEMs. Higher U.S. interest rates are also adding to EM stress by creating competition for capit
21、al. Investors can now receive decent returns in U.S. short- term bonds without having to take major credit and duration risk. Investors have reset their return expectations for riskier assets as a result, especially EM assets and equities. See the Great repricing chart. This repricing has sparked ma
22、rket volatility, reinforcing our view that it is important to build greater resilience into portfolios through quality exposures across equities and credit. We believe equity investors are broadly compensated for growing risks, but advocate a greater focus on fortifying portfolios amid macro uncerta
23、inty. BII0918U/E- FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S. EMERGING MARKETS EM DOWNDR AF T4 Crisis as usual Implied volatility of EM currencies, equities and U.S. equities, 20102018 -2 0 2 4 200122010 Z-s
24、core Flash crash Eurozone crisis 2018 EM swoon U.S. equities EM equities EM FX Taper tantrum China shock Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reute
25、rs, September 2018. Notes: The lines show the number of standard deviations from the average (z-score) since 2010. Volatility of EM FX (currencies) is based on a simple average of implied volatility for the Brazilian real, Turkish lira, South African rand, Polish zloty, Thai baht, Mexican peso, Indo
26、nesian rupiah and Indian rupee to dollar rates. Volatility of U.S. equities is based on the CBOE VIX Index, and EM equities on the CBOE Emerging Markets Volatility Index (data available from March 2011). “Flash crash” is the U.S. market crash of May 6, 2010; “eurozone crisis” marks the peak of Europ
27、es sovereign debt crisis; “taper tantrum” is the 2013 market selloff on fears of the Fed winding down its asset purchase program; “China shock” is Chinas summer 2015 stock market crash. Weak links EM current account balances vs. 12-month currency returns, September 2018 -7.5-5-2.502.557.510% -60 -30
28、 0 10% Currency vs. USD Current account balance as share of GDP Turkey Brazil South Africa India Mexico China Malaysia South Korea Thailand Russia Poland Argentina Indonesia Chile Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from the IMF and Thomson Reuters, September 2018. Notes: The dots sho
29、w the 12-month change in the spot currency exchange rate versus the U.S. dollar on the vertical axis, and the IMF estimate of the current account balance as a share of GDP for 2018 on the horizontal axis. According to the terms agreed upon in Argentinas Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF, its c
30、urrent account deficit is projected to be -3.6% for 2018. We have used the pre-SBA figure in the chart above for a fairer comparison with peers. Click to view more interactive data EM downdraft This years EM troubles stem from a potent cocktail of negatives. Catalysts ranged from country-specific fa
31、ctors (Turkeys credit-fueled growth running out of steam; Argentinas policy missteps) to worsening trade tensions, a crowded EM election calendar and moderately tighter global financial conditions (higher U.S. rates and a stronger dollar). The biggest casualties: currencies of EM economies with the
32、largest current account deficits and highest external debt burdens. Countries with surpluses, such as South Korea and Thailand, have largely been spared a currency crunch. See the Weak links chart. Is the EM selloff a canary in the coal mine for global markets? We see it more as a series of idiosync
33、ratic accidents that have masked stronger EM fundamentals. With much of the steam let out of valuations, a robust growth backdrop, and potential for the Fed to slow its pace of policy normalization, we see room for a rebound. Country-specific EM fragilities came home to roost this year yet we dont s
34、eethese as a threat to global markets. EM currencies have borne the brunt of the recent selloff. Volatility in EM currencies has spiked to higher levels than the 2013 “taper tantrum” when then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke signaled the beginning of the end of new asset purchases. Yet there has been no visi
35、ble contagion to other global asset classes. See the Crisis as usual chart. Currencies have shown some signs of stabilization recently, with emergency rate hikes in Turkey and Argentina stemming the tide. This is a positive sign for EM assets overall, which appear to offer attractive compensation fo
36、r their risks. We stick to our overweight stance on EM equities and see selected opportunities in EM debt. See pages 7 and 8 for details. “ The current EM equity drawdown isnt any worse than any other post-crisis selloff. The persistence is the difference and its unusual amid a strong economic outlo
37、ok.” Gerardo Rodriguez EM Portfolio Manager, BlackRock Systematic Active Equity BII0918U/E- FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S. EMERGING MARKETS EM SPILLOVER DEBATE5 “Solid fundamentals and ample liquidity spur
38、red a hunt for yield and a rush into EM debt. Now that financial conditions are tightening, some cracks are showing especially for countries relying on market access to fund deficits. EM offersup good opportunities, though. When fundamentals areOK, most problems have been uncovered and assets havere
39、priced.” Sergio Trigo Paz Head of BlackRocks Emerging Markets Fixed Income DM in the drivers seat BlackRock Growth GPS vs. G7 consensus, 20152018 Annual GDP growth Consensus growth estimates are too pessimistic 1.5 2 2.5% BlackRock Growth GPS G7 consensus 20015 Sources: BlackRock Investme
40、nt Institute, with data from Bloomberg and Consensus Economics, September 2018. Notes: The BlackRock Growth GPS shows where the 12-month forward consensus GDP forecast may stand in three months time. The G7 consensus is the 12-month consensus GDP forecast as measured by Consensus Economics. Forward-
41、looking estimates may not come to pass. EM spillover debate We dont expect the EM selloff to upend the global expansion. Most EM economies are holding up, and recessions in trouble spots like Turkey and Argentina should have limited impact. We see DMs as the key drivers of the global expansion and E
42、Ms fortunes. Our updated work on global growth spillovers suggests the impact of DM growth on EM is several times that of EMto DM and China is the linchpin for transmitting growth. Our BlackRock Growth GPS points to steady economic activity in China and potential for upgrades to G7 growth estimates.
43、 See the DM in the drivers seat chart. Could things get worse for EM? The bear case: The Fed tightens more rapidly, the dollar strengthens, trade frictions worsen and portfolio outflows spur liquidity crises and EM tightening. We lean to the bull case: Many of these risks look to be priced in, espec
44、ially in equities. Global financial conditions may not tighten much more, with the Fed moving closer to a “neutral” rate that neither helps nor hinders growth, and we could see an ebbing of individual EM crises. “EM was a crowded trade and the usual suspects are now being hit. EM fundamentals only m
45、atter on the downshift; the U.S. dollar, interest rates and portfolio flows affect EM much more. The bear market is a symptom of late-cycle dynamics, not the cause. If there is contagion, its buyer contagion. Fund redemptions can lead to forced selling, which leads to more price declines and selling
46、.” Tom Parker Chief Investment Officer, BlackRock Systematic Fixed Income Is the EM swoon the result of a series of unfortunate country-specific events, or is it a warning sign of trouble ahead for risk assets around the globe? We debated this in mid-September. Here are snippets: “The global backdro
47、p is still solid, global rates are low, and central banks havent delivered any surprises this year. The big story of 2018 is increased macro risks. Trade tensions have escalated and that has put the spotlight on pre-existing vulnerabilities. Turkey is a Turkey story. EM troubles are not the canary i
48、n the coal mine for the end of this cycle, but they show that there will be consequences if trade tensions escalate.” Jean Boivin Global Head of Research, BlackRock Investment Institute Click to view more interactive data BII0918U/E- FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS
49、 AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S. EMERGING MARKETS FLOWS AND CHINA6 Trade tremors BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for U.S.-China relations, 20052018 Score -2 0 2 4 U.S. election 20005 Obama pivots toward Asia Xi takes reins Obama-Xi summit China becomes top U.S. foreign creditor Trump nomination Trump announces fi rst tariffs Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson R
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