1、Global Investment Outlook Q4 2018 MKTG1018A- GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK SUMMARY2 Kate Moore Chief Equity Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Elga Bartsch Head of Economic and Markets Research BlackRock Investment Institute Isabelle Mateos y Lago Chief Multi-Asset Strategist BlackR
2、ock Investment Institute Jeff Rosenberg Chief Fixed Income Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Richard Turnill Global Chief Investment Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute SETTING THE SCENE . 3 Macro outlook and themes EM UNDER PRESSURE .48 EM downdraft EM spillover debate Flows and China
3、 Fixed income Equities MARKETS . 9 Assets in brief We revisit our 2018 investment themes and take a deep dive into the prospects for emerging market (EM) assets after an unexpectedly drawn-out selloff. Themes: We see the steady global expansion rolling on, underpinned by above-trend U.S. growth. Yet
4、 the range of potential economic outcomes is widening. Stimulus-fueled surprises and productivity gains could boost growth and risk assets, whereas escalating trade disputes and rising price pressures could create downside risks. Gradual increases in U.S. rates are tightening financial conditions gl
5、obally, and have contributed to bouts of volatility and sharply depreciating EM currencies. This argues for a greater focus on making portfolios more resilient to downside shocks. EM under pressure: The EM world has been hit by a series of country-specific shocks and tightening financial conditions
6、pressuring those with the greatest external vulnerabilities. This was not how we envisioned the EM story playing out this year. We see room for a recovery, especially in equities. Chinas economy looks resilient, EM fundamentals are generally robust, and we may be near a peak in idiosyncratic risks.
7、Valuations reflect much potential downside. The Federal Reserve is set to keep raising rates gradually and could start to slow its balance sheet wind-down next year. Risks include escalating trade frictions, hefty portfolio outflows, and a hawkish Fed pushing up global rates and the U.S. dollar. Mar
8、ket views: We favor equities over bonds but see an uneasy equilibrium between rising macro uncertainty and strong corporate earnings growth. This calls for portfolio resilience, expressed through our preference for quality exposures and U.S. equities over other regions. In fixed income, we favor sho
9、rt-term bonds in the U.S. and an up-in-quality stance in credit. Rising risk premia have created value in EM equities, including in the hard-hit tech sector. We prefer selected hard-currency EM debt over the local variety on relative valuations and the insulation they provide against currency deprec
10、iations. MKTG1018A- SET TING THE SCENE MACRO OUTLOOK AND THEMES3 Great repricing Asset yield comparison, January vs. September 2018 0 5 10% EM equities U.S. high yield credit U.S. IG credit U.S. 10-year Treasury U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield DM equities EM USD debt Earnings yield Higher U
11、.S. rates have contributed to a repricing JanuaryCurrent Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters, September 2018. Notes: Indexes used from lef
12、t to right are: Thomson Reuters Datastream 2-year and 10-year U.S. Government Benchmark Indexes, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Credit Index, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield Index, JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index, MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Yield in the two equity markets
13、is represented by 12-month forward earnings yield. Heightened uncertainty Distribution of two-year forward U.S. GDP forecasts, 2018 vs. 2017 Economic uncertainty is rising, with a skew to the downside 0123% Annual U.S. GDP growth August 2018 (2020 forecast) August 2017 (2019 forecast) Relative frequ
14、ency of forecasts Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Consensus Economics, September 2018. Notes: The lines show the distribution of two-year forward U.S. GDP growth forecasts as of August 2018 and August 2017. The vertical axis shows the relative frequency of each forecast. Forw
15、ard-looking estimates may not come to pass. Macro outlook and themes A solid near-term global growth outlook is clouded by persistent and elevated uncertainties. Above-trend U.S. economic activity is underpinning G7gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Consensus views for G7 growth havepulled back re
16、lative to our BlackRock Growth GPS, creating the potential for upside surprises. U.S. fiscal spending is picking up into year-end, keeping the risk of economic overheating on our radar. This comes as the Federal Reserve presses on with its normalization campaign, bringing interest rates closer to “n
17、eutral” levels that may stoke worries policy will actually become tight. Trade tensions show few signs of abating. Tariffs have the potential to disrupt supply chains, increase price pressures and dent confidence. Economists have become divided on the two-year outlook compared with last year: More a
18、re penciling in downside forecasts. See the Heightened uncertainty chart. We believe global growth can sustain at above-trend levels, even as the rangeof potential macro outcomes widens heading into 2019. The three themes from our Midyear investment outlook still ring true: awidening range of growth
19、 outcomes, tighter financial conditions and a risingneed for portfolio resilience. Tighter financial conditions partly played out through a stronger U.S. dollar. This exacerbated the troubles of the most vulnerable EM economies. Trade frictions and the dollars path remain key forEMs. Higher U.S. int
20、erest rates are also adding to EM stress by creating competition for capital. Investors can now receive decent returns in U.S. short- term bonds without having to take major credit and duration risk. Investors have reset their return expectations for riskier assets as a result, especially EM assets
21、and equities. See the Great repricing chart. This repricing has sparked market volatility, reinforcing our view that it is important to build greater resilience into portfolios through quality exposures across equities and credit. We believe equity investors are broadly compensated for growing risks
22、, but advocate a greater focus on fortifying portfolios amid macro uncertainty. MKTG1018A- EMERGING MARKETS EM DOWNDR AF T4 Crisis as usual Implied volatility of EM currencies, equities and U.S. equities, 20102018 -2 0 2 4 200122010 Z-score Flash crash Eurozone crisis 2018 E
23、M swoon U.S. equities EM equities EM FX Taper tantrum China shock Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters, September 2018. Notes: The lines sh
24、ow the number of standard deviations from the average (z-score) since 2010. Volatility of EM FX (currencies) is based on a simple average of implied volatility for the Brazilian real, Turkish lira, South African rand, Polish zloty, Thai baht, Mexican peso, Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee to dolla
25、r rates. Volatility of U.S. equities is based on the CBOE VIX Index, and EM equities on the CBOE Emerging Markets Volatility Index (data available from March 2011). “Flash crash” is the U.S. market crash of May 6, 2010; “eurozone crisis” marks the peak of Europes sovereign debt crisis; “taper tantru
26、m” is the 2013 market selloff on fears of the Fed winding down its asset purchase program; “China shock” is Chinas summer 2015 stock market crash. Weak links EM current account balances vs. 12-month currency returns, September 2018 -7.5-5-2.502.557.510% -60 -30 0 10% Currency vs. USD Current account
27、 balance as share of GDP Turkey Brazil South Africa India Mexico China Malaysia South Korea Thailand Russia Poland Argentina Indonesia Chile Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from the IMF and Thomson Reuters, September 2018. Notes: The dots show the 12-month change in the spot curre
28、ncy exchange rate versus the U.S. dollar on the vertical axis, and the IMF estimate of the current account balance as a share of GDP for 2018 on the horizontal axis. According to the terms agreed upon in Argentinas Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF, its current account deficit is projected to
29、be -3.6% for 2018. We have used the pre-SBA figure in the chart above for a fairer comparison with peers. Click to view more interactive data EM downdraft This years EM troubles stem from a potent cocktail of negatives. Catalysts ranged from country-specific factors (Turkeys credit-fueled growth run
30、ning out of steam; Argentinas policy missteps) to worsening trade tensions, a crowded EM election calendar and moderately tighter global financial conditions (higher U.S. rates and a stronger dollar). The biggest casualties: currencies of EM economies with the largest current account deficits and hi
31、ghest external debt burdens. Countries with surpluses, such as South Korea and Thailand, have largely been spared a currency crunch. See the Weak links chart. Is the EM selloff a canary in the coal mine for global markets? We see it more as a series of idiosyncratic accidents that have masked strong
32、er EM fundamentals. With much of the steam let out of valuations, a robust growth backdrop, and potential for the Fed to slow its pace of policy normalization, we see room for a rebound. Country-specific EM fragilities came home to roost this year yet we dont seethese as a threat to global markets.
33、EM currencies have borne the brunt of the recent selloff. Volatility in EM currencies has spiked to higher levels than the 2013 “taper tantrum” when then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke signaled the beginning of the end of new asset purchases. Yet there has been no visible contagion to other global asset cla
34、sses. See the Crisis as usual chart. Currencies have shown some signs of stabilization recently, with emergency rate hikes in Turkey and Argentina stemming the tide. This is a positive sign for EM assets overall, which appear to offer attractive compensation for their risks. We stick to our overweig
35、ht stance on EM equities and see selected opportunities in EM debt. See pages 7 and 8 for details. “ The current EM equity drawdown isnt any worse than any other post-crisis selloff. The persistence is the difference and its unusual amid a strong economic outlook.” Gerardo Rodriguez EM Portfolio Man
36、ager, BlackRock Systematic Active Equity MKTG1018A- EMERGING MARKETS EM SPILLOVER DEBATE5 “Solid fundamentals and ample liquidity spurred a hunt for yield and a rush into EM debt. Now that financial conditions are tightening, some cracks are showing especially for countries relying on
37、market access to fund deficits. EM offersup good opportunities, though. When fundamentals areOK, most problems have been uncovered and assets haverepriced.” Sergio Trigo Paz Head of BlackRocks Emerging Markets Fixed Income DM in the drivers seat BlackRock Growth GPS vs. G7 consensus, 20152018 Annual
38、 GDP growth Consensus growth estimates are too pessimistic 1.5 2 2.5% BlackRock Growth GPS G7 consensus 20015 Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Bloomberg and Consensus Economics, September 2018. Notes: The BlackRock Growth GPS shows where the 12-month forward consens
39、us GDP forecast may stand in three months time. The G7 consensus is the 12-month consensus GDP forecast as measured by Consensus Economics. Forward-looking estimates may not come to pass. EM spillover debate We dont expect the EM selloff to upend the global expansion. Most EM economies are holding u
40、p, and recessions in trouble spots like Turkey and Argentina should have limited impact. We see DMs as the key drivers of the global expansion and EMs fortunes. Our updated work on global growth spillovers suggests the impact of DM growth on EM is several times that of EMto DM and China is the linch
41、pin for transmitting growth. Our BlackRock Growth GPS points to steady economic activity in China and potential for upgrades to G7 growth estimates. See the DM in the drivers seat chart. Could things get worse for EM? The bear case: The Fed tightens more rapidly, the dollar strengthens, trade fricti
42、ons worsen and portfolio outflows spur liquidity crises and EM tightening. We lean to the bull case: Many of these risks look to be priced in, especially in equities. Global financial conditions may not tighten much more, with the Fed moving closer to a “neutral” rate that neither helps nor hinders
43、growth, and we could see an ebbing of individual EM crises. “EM was a crowded trade and the usual suspects are now being hit. EM fundamentals only matter on the downshift; the U.S. dollar, interest rates and portfolio flows affect EM much more. The bear market is a symptom of late-cycle dynamics, no
44、t the cause. If there is contagion, its buyer contagion. Fund redemptions can lead to forced selling, which leads to more price declines and selling.” Tom Parker Chief Investment Officer, BlackRock Systematic Fixed Income Is the EM swoon the result of a series of unfortunate country-specific events,
45、 or is it a warning sign of trouble ahead for risk assets around the globe? We debated this in mid-September. Here are snippets: “The global backdrop is still solid, global rates are low, and central banks havent delivered any surprises this year. The big story of 2018 is increased macro risks. Trad
46、e tensions have escalated and that has put the spotlight on pre-existing vulnerabilities. Turkey is a Turkey story. EM troubles are not the canary in the coal mine for the end of this cycle, but they show that there will be consequences if trade tensions escalate.” Jean Boivin Global Head of Researc
47、h, BlackRock Investment Institute Click to view more interactive data MKTG1018A- EMERGING MARKETS FLOWS AND CHINA6 Trade tremors BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for U.S.-China relations, 20052018 Score -2 0 2 4 U.S. election 20005 Obama pivots toward Asia Xi takes rein
48、s Obama-Xi summit China becomes top U.S. foreign creditor Trump nomination Trump announces fi rst tariffs Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Thomson Reuters. Data as of Sept. 14, 2018. Notes: We identify specific words related to this geopolitical risk and use text analysis to c
49、alculate the frequency of their appearance in the Thomson Reuters Broker Report and Dow Jones Global Newswire databases as well as on Twitter. We then adjust for whether the language reflects positive or negative sentiment, and assign a score. A zero score represents the average BGRI level over its history from 2003 up to that point in time. A score of one means the BGRI level is one standard deviation above the average. We weigh recent readings more
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