1、Global Wealth Report 2018 October 2018 Thought leadership from Credit Suisse Research and the worlds foremost experts Research Institute 2 Introduction The Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report is the most extensive and current source of informa- tion on global household wealth. Now in its ninth editio
2、n, the report not only provides insights into the wealth development of regions and segments, but for the first time it also focuses on the most recent evidence on female wealth holdings, in particular on gender differ- ences with males. During the 12 months since our last report to mid-2018, aggreg
3、ate global wealth rose by USD 14 trillion to USD 317 trillion, which represents a growth rate of approximately 4.6%. This growth rate was lower than last year, but higher than the average growth rate in the post-2008 era. This was sufficient to outpace population growth, so that wealth per adult gre
4、w by approximately 3.2%, a record high. Looking at the number of millionaires, we see that there are 42.2 million millionaires worldwide, which is up 2.3 million over the previous 12 months. Our research indicates that the United States added 878,000 new millionaires representing around 40% of the g
5、lobal increase to its already sizable stock, whereas the number of newcomers in France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy was around 200,000 each. In China, the number of millionaires rose by a modest 186,000 and in Japan 94,000. The main explanation for these increases in millionaire numbers wi
6、thin countries lies in the real wealth growth, rather than in exchange-rate movements. Millionaire numbers fell in very few countries (such as Turkey and Brazil), and by relatively small amounts, the main driver being currency depreciation. The key finding of this years new wealth valuation is for m
7、any observers not surprising China is now clearly established second place in the world wealth hierarchy. The country overtook Japan with respect to the number of ultra-high net worth (UHNW) individuals in 2009, total wealth in 2011 and the number of millionaires in 2014. Neverthe- less, the data sh
8、ows that mean wealth per adult in China (USD 47,810 in mid-2018) remains far below the level in Japan (USD 227,240). Turning our interest to the lower level of the wealth distribution, we see that 3.2 billion adults or about 64% of the adult population lives with a wealth below USD 10,000, which cor
9、responds to only 1.9% of the global wealth. Those with low wealth are disproportionately found among the younger age groups, those who live in regions where prospects for wealth creation are very limited (most notably Africa) and where opportunities are sometimes constrained. The wealth of women has
10、 been receiving increasing attention and we estimate that women account for about 40% of global wealth overall. During the 20th century, their share of wealth rose considerably and, since the year 2000, the level of womens wealth has risen along with all household wealth, especially in Asia alongsid
11、e the rise of Chinas wealth. The tendency shows that more self-made women are succeeding in business and are entering the highest wealth ranks. Despite this trend, even in those countries where progress is the strongest, some catego- ries of women such as single mothers and divorcees remain disadvan
12、taged. While more is required to be done to ensure that women have an equal opportunity to build up, inherit and share in wealth, there are signs that progress has been happening in many parts of the world. Given some of this years intriguing findings, we hope you find the 2018 edition of the Global
13、 Wealth Report a valuable source of insight and wish you interesting reading. Urs Rohner Chairman of the Board of Directors Credit Suisse Group AG Global Wealth Report 20183 02 Introduction 04 Global wealth 2018: The year in review 13 Global trends in household wealth For more information, contact:
14、Richard Kersley, Head Global Thematic Research, Credit Suisse Investment Banking, richard.kersleycredit-, or Michael OSullivan, Chief Investment Officer, International Wealth Management, Credit Suisse, michael.osullivancredit- 57 About the authors 20 The global wealth pyramid 25 Women and wealth 33
15、Wealth outlook 40 United States The boom goes on 39 Wealth of nations 58 General disclaimer / Important information 41 China Growth champion 42 India Growth story 43 Russia Changing fortunes 44 Germany Powerhouse of Europe 45 United Kingdom Brexit gets close 46 Switzerland View from the top 47 Singa
16、pore Renewed growth 48 Japan Hanging on 49 South Korea Growth star 50 Indonesia Little recent growth 51 South Africa Wealth uptick 52 Brazil Sliding 53 Chile LatAm wealth champion 54 Canada Slower growth 55 Australia Still resilient 4 Global wealth 2018: The year in review Wealth landmarks in mid-20
17、18 The world was wealthier in the past than we believed a year ago. New official statistical data and other reliable sources have led us to revise our estimate of total global wealth in mid-2017 upward by nearly USD 23 trillion, or 8%. China is the main beneficiary of this newly recorded wealth, alt
18、hough Spanish wealth has also been subjected to a major upgrade. The revision mostly relates to non-financial assets owned by the middle class. This reduces our estimate of the share of financial assets in total global wealth by 1% and the shares of the top 1% and top 10% of wealth holders by about
19、three percentage points. The main outcome of the new wealth valua- tions is confirmation of what many observers already suspected that China is now clearly established in second place in the world wealth hierarchy. Our revised figures suggest that China overtook Japan with respect to the number of u
20、ltra-high net worth (UHNW) individuals in 2009, total wealth in 2011, and the number of millionaires in 2014. However, mean wealth per adult in China (USD 47,810 in mid-2018) remains far below the level in Japan (USD 227,240), and median wealth lags even further behind Japan (USD 16,330 versus USD 1
21、03,860). Now in its ninth edition, the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report is the most comprehensive and up-to-date source of information on global household wealth. Wealth continued to grow at a moderate pace in 2018, partly reflecting continued rises in equity markets but due more to increases in n
22、on-financial assets. The United States continued its unbroken spell of wealth gains since the global financial crisis, adding another USD 6 trillion to the stock of global wealth. China and Europe also made significant contributions to the new record level of global wealth, which is equivalent to US
23、D 63,100 per adult. Anthony Shorrocks, James Davies and Rodrigo Lluberas Another prominent feature of the world wealth outlook this year is the seemingly relentless rise in household wealth in the United States. Total wealth and wealth per adult in the United States have grown every year since 2008,
24、 even when total global wealth suffered a reversal in 2014 and 2015. The United States has accounted for 40% of all increments to world wealth since 2008, and 58% of the rise since 2013. While not wishing to cast doubt on the Trump Effect on financial markets, it seems inevitable that the uninterrup
25、ted spell of increasing wealth in the United States will come to an end at some time. Fortunately, there are signs that wealth inequality is no longer rising, which should mitigate the impact of any setback on the middle classes. An overview of the past year During the 12 months to mid-2018, aggrega
26、te global wealth rose by USD 14.0 trillion to USD 317 trillion, representing a growth rate of 4.6% (see Table 1). This growth rate was lower than for calendar year 2017, but higher than the average growth rate in the post-2008 era, and a consider- able improvement on the decline during 201415. It wa
27、s also sufficient to outpace population growth, so that wealth per adult grew by 3.2%, raising global mean wealth to USD 63,100 per adult, a record high. Global Wealth Report 20185 Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2018 Total wealth Ch
28、ange in total wealth Wealth per adult Change in wealth per adult Change in financial assets Change in non- financial assets Change in debts 2018201718 20777718 USD bnUSD bn%USD%USD bn%USD bn%USD bn% Africa2,5531084.44,1381.5372.8684.8-4-1.3 Asia-Pacific56,
29、7159291.748,1190.06752.18332.65786.6 China51,8742,2664.647,8104.04222.02,7868.594222.7 Europe85,4024,4325.5144,9035.41,1672.74,0477.97825.9 India5,9721512.67,0240.7-16-2.52514.38413.3 Latin America8,055-415-4.918,605-6.5-215-6.1-127-2.0725.1 North America106,5136,4866.5391,6905.54,9606.02,2036.56774
30、.2 World317,08413,9584.663,1003.27,0303.810,0616.23,1337.1 Table 1: Change in household wealth 201718, by region China is now clearly established in second place in the world wealth hierarchy Financial assets suffered most during the financial crisis and recovered better in the early post-crisis yea
31、rs. They continue to make a substantial contribution to growth of house- hold wealth, accounting for 41% of the increase in gross wealth worldwide, and more than two-thirds of the rise in North America. However, non-financial assets have grown faster in recent years. Over the past 12 months, they ha
32、ve provided the main impetus to overall growth in all regions except North America, accounting for more than 75% of the rise in China and Europe, and all of the rise in India. Household debt rose even faster at an overall rate of 7.1%. According to our esti- mates, debt increased in all regions exce
33、pt Africa and achieved double-digit growth in China and India. North America added USD 6.5 trillion to its stock of household wealth in the last year, almost all in the United States, which accounted for USD 6.3 trillion. Europe contributed an additional USD 4.4 trillion, China USD 2.3 trillion, and
34、 Asia-Pacific (excluding China and India) almost USD 1 trillion. But Africa, India and Latin America together saw a net loss, partly due to the economic troubles in Argentina and Brazil. In percentage terms, the 6.5% loss in Latin America exceeded the percent- age gains in North America, Europe or C
35、hina. Adverse currency movements were partly to blame. Using smoothed exchange rates, wealth growth was positive in Latin America and slightly higher in Africa and India. But the overall assessment changes very little when smoothed exchange rates are used. Winners and losers among countries Comparin
36、g wealth gains and losses across countries, the United States and China led the pack by some margin, although Germany, France and the United Kingdom all recorded an increase of nearly USD 1 trillion, and Italy and Japan about USD 500 billion each. The main losses occurred in Brazil (down USD 380 bil
37、lion), Turkey (down USD 190 billion) and Argentina (down USD 130 billion). Venezuela probably did worse, but we are unable to offer a reliable estimate given the exchange rate collapse. 6 Viewed in terms of wealth per adult, the United States again heads the list of increases (Figure 1). But a numbe
38、r of smaller countries also appear in the top ten: Ireland (up USD 15,690), Singapore (up USD 14,290), Belgium (up USD 13,020) and Hong Kong (up USD 11,510). On the downside, wealth per adult dropped by more than USD 10,000 in Israel, New Zealand and Sweden, and by a greater amount in Switzerland (d
39、own USD 21,340). Asset prices and exchange rates Much of the year-on-year variation in wealth levels can be traced to changes in asset prices and exchange rates. Exchange-rate movements usually underlie the biggest gains and losses. During the past 12 months, exchange rates have been relatively stab
40、le compared to recent history. Among the countries listed in Figure 2 (the G7 countries plus China and India), exchange-rate changes versus the US dollar did not exceed 3%, apart from a 6% depreciation in Russia and India. This was broadly true of the rest of the world, except for the large deprecia
41、tions recorded for Pakistan and Brazil (both 14%), Turkey (23%) and Argentina (42%). Much of the year-on- year variation in wealth levels can be traced to changes in asset prices and exchange rates While equity markets continued to achieve new peaks, the rises were down on average from last year. Fi
42、gure 2 shows that market capitalization growth was within the 4%11% range among G7 nations, although Russia managed 14% growth and China fell by 6%. Elsewhere, markets rose by more than 20% in Tunisia and Colombia, and by a greater amount in Norway (33%), Egypt (48%), Vietnam (60%) and Ukraine (130%
43、). Falls of more than 10% were recorded in the Philippines, Poland, Serbia and Pakistan, and in excess of 20% in Turkey and Argentina. House-price movements are a proxy for the non-financial component of household assets. Here again, the year-on-year change was modest at between 4% and +4% for the c
44、ountries in Figure 2 except for slightly higher values in Germany (7%) and India (9%). In the rest of the world, house prices did not fall by more than 10%, or rise by more than 12%, except in Argentina (up 29%). Figure 2: Change in market capitalization, house prices and USD exchange rate (%), 2017
45、18 Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2018 Figure 1: Change in household wealth per adult 201718, biggest gains and losses (USD) Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2018 -10
46、-5051015 Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Russia United Kingdom United States House pricesMarket capitalizationUSD exchange rate United States Libya France United Kingdom Ireland Singapore Germany Belgium Netherlands Austria Hong Kong Italy Israel New Zealand Sweden Switzerland -30,000-
47、20,000-10,000010,00020,00030,000 Global Wealth Report 20187 Wealth per adult across countries The global figure of USD 63,100 for wealth per adult masks considerable variation across countries and regions, as is evident in Figure 3. Nations with wealth per adult above USD 100,000 are located in Nort
48、h America, Western Europe, and among the rich Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern countries. Switzerland (USD 530,240), Australia (USD 411,060) and the United States (USD 403,970) again head the league table according to wealth per adult, followed by Belgium (313,050), Norway (291,100), and New Zealand
49、(USD 289,800). Canada (288,260), Denmark (286,710), Singapore (283,260) and France (280,580) occupy the remaining places in the top ten. The ranking by median wealth per adult favors countries with lower levels of wealth inequality and produces a slightly different table. This year, Australia (USD 191,450) edged ahead of Switzerland (USD 183,340) into first place according to our estimates. The median wealth placements of Belgium (USD 163,430), Canada (USD 106,340), New Zealand (98,610), the United Kingdom (97,170) and Singapore (USD 91,660) are similar to
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