1、his years Fjord Trends are like no others that have gone before, shaped during a period of comprehensive, global uncertainty. Even in the time its taken us to write them, the situation has evolved frequently, so its possible that we might issue a second edition at some point particularly if a succes
2、sful vaccine transforms the landscape. (We can but hope.) As we looked through the submissions for this years trends from our designers around the world, one thread connected them all: a sense of displacement. In 2020, the transformation in who we are in the world and how we move through it has been
3、 unquestionable. We liken it to standing on your own street corner and finding, in the blink of an eye, that someone redrafted the map of the neighborhood youve always known, leaving you seeking the comfort of familiar sights that stay just out of view. The reassuring thing is that were all in the s
4、ame boat of uncertainty and unpredictability. Weve tried not to let the pandemic make Fjord Trends 2021 a gloomy read, but pretending it isnt a factor would be to render them irrelevant before we even hit “publish”. Yes, Covid-19 has made things tough for people and businesses alike, but we can and
5、will come through this. Stay safe. Mark Curtis how to play in the ecosystem with other business-to-busi- ness players; how to manage an experience the company is not in sole control of; and how to design for resilience and uncertainty. Companies might need to rethink the position of supply chains wi
6、thin their business and make it a priority to expand the idea of what their assets are and how to use them. In the US, Lululemon Athletica reopened P WHATS NEXT New patterns of demand need new business models and supply chain solutions. 58 FJORD TRENDS 2021 58FJORD TRENDS 2021LIQUID INFRASTRUCTURE L
7、IQUID INFRASTRUCTURE its stores not to serve walk-in customers but fill online orders more quickly. Meanwhile, when Best Buy reopened its stores it did so only for staff to facilitate contactless curbside collection by customers. This might also mean changing how they measure a supply chain rather t
8、han just judging it by efficiency, they should also evaluate it for growth, flexibility and agility to deliver on experience as well as products. Companies will need to decide which new trade-offs between cost and experience theyre willing to make. In the early weeks of the pandemic in the UK, for e
9、xample, some supermarkets slashed product ranges temporarily by up to 70% to focus on the remaining 30%. Amazon is using its Whole Food shops as “dark stores” serving fulfilment centers soon to be operated by robots. Barclays Bank expects that its physical branches will soon be used mainly by call c
10、enter workers and investment banking, and Berlins iconic Berghain nightclub was reborn as a gallery. Its becoming important to embrace the opportunities that lie in the business-to-business sharing economy and new strategic partnerships that will make best use of existing assets. In Asia, JD.com has
11、 launched an “expert to domestic” initiative through its new app Jingxi, to let manufacturers open new stores on its platform for free and tap into its marketing, logistics and delivery services. Collaboration was a key feature of the hospitality sectors response to the pandemic, where “dark kitchen
12、s” allow a number of delivery-only restaurants to share one kitchen space. Itll be interesting to see how new collaborations will offset the loss of brand experience previously delivered at point of sale in the physical world on the high street, for example by creating new points of delight at home.
13、 Companies might need to explore new business models and value propositions. Subscription models grew not just during lockdown as a replacement for physical experience, but after. Pret a Manger, for example, launched a coffee subscription scheme to encourage customers back into spending. Walmart rec
14、ently launched subscription delivery to your door service Walmart+, moving into space dominated by Amazon Prime. The fashion industry, like many others, was hit hard by the pandemic. Small and medium-sized independent designers particularly suffered, so the opportunity to benefit from Amazons delive
15、ry infrastructure Amazons Whole Food shops are being used as “dark stores” serving fulfilment centers while closed to the public. 59 FJORD TRENDS 2021 59FJORD TRENDS 2021LIQUID INFRASTRUCTURE LIQUID INFRASTRUCTURE proved to be a lifeline for many. Exactly as Amazon had intended, this development ena
16、bled them to offer a premium and bespoke delivery experience as a new value proposition. Walmarts redesigned in-store experience is pragmatic, offering quick and efficient testing of gadgets rather than experiential and with the emphasis on enabling customers to shop quickly as well as safely a mark
17、edly different approach to browsing. Theres also likely to be a rise in two-speed innovation that makes busi- nesses more agile and flexible to respond to change, while keeping true to their central purpose. LVMHs pivot to convert its perfume factories to making hand sanitizer during the early weeks
18、 of the pandemic demon- strates the speed with which companies may need to act and can, when under pressure. US food distribution Sysco, for example, built a supply chain and bill- ing system to serve grocery stores, from scratch, within a week, while in-flight catering companies like Israels Tamam
19、Kitchen and Australias Gate Gourmet began delivering quality meals to families stuck at home. Companies will need to reimagine supply chain as a growth driver. Growing demand for personalization presents an important opportu- nity here, and one that requires supply chains to be more flexible and res
20、ponsive especially within the final ten feet. 5G could play an important role in this, enabling the wider deployment of immersive technologies to create a new generation of captivating brand experiences, and allowing greater personalization of the supply chain at the point of delivery. Understanding
21、 the ways in which 5G can be used within the emerging new liquid infrastructure will be critical especially in remote areas, where the pandemic exposed the need to close the rural broadband digital divide. Finally, the fact that companies will need to rethink their supply chain means they have an op
22、portunity to consider sustainable alternatives while theyre at it. Returns of certain items are often sent straight to landfill. In the US, Pottery Barn now works with The Renewal Workshop to sanitize all returned fabrics so that they are renewed then resold. Meanwhile, Swedens IKEA recently opened
23、its first secondhand shopping center. Another way to use supply chains to better meet sustainability goals is by making them more local. German company Urban Drivestyle builds all its e-bikes in Berlin and is working to transfer its entire supply and production chain to Europe. As part of a new push
24、 to reach customers during the pandemic, Whole Foods is participating in a New York City cargo e-bike delivery pilot to deliver groceries to online shoppers. 60 FJORD TRENDS 2021 60FJORD TRENDS 2021LIQUID INFRASTRUCTURE LIQUID INFRASTRUCTURE Taiwanese tech giant Foxconn, which makes an array of devi
25、ces includ- ing iPhones, is making moves to fragment its supply chain into one for China, and several others for the rest of the world. Organizations can (and should) build agility and resilience across their supply chains so they can adapt quickly to change. This is not just about being able to man
26、age any further shifts caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, however. Rather, its about futureproofing for changes they will certainly face one day notably, climate change. Keeping a whole supply chain local helps with sustainability goals, as shown by German e-bike company Urban Drivestyle. 61
27、FJORD TRENDS 2021 61 FJORD TRENDS 2021LIQUID INFRASTRUCTURE LIQUID INFRASTRUCTURE Think of your supply chain and physical assets as growthnot efficiencyplays. What would you do differently? Analyze what assets like a “shop” really deliver. What belongs in digital and what belongs in the physical rea
28、lm? Openly commit to shifting to sustainable redesign. Within five years, sustainability will be the biggest influence on your infrastructure decisions. Start figuring out how you design for sustainability now. Evaluate the often-hidden parts of the experience chain that add unrecognized value. For
29、example, is “waiting time” part of your experience? How can you use it as a white space to delight customers? Do Think Say FJORD SUGGESTS Trend 6 E M P A T H Y CHALL ENGE 63 FJORD TRENDS 2021 63FJORD TRENDS 2021EMPATHY CHALLENGE EMPATHY CHALLENGE Awareness and concern about inequality in all its for
30、ms grew rapidly in 2020. This poses a challenge for organizations as they try to respond: how should they manage the narratives they use to shape their brands? Companies may need a new approach that blends pragmatism with empathy, and that ensures they are seen to follow through on their intentions
31、to do good. INTRODUCTION 64 FJORD TRENDS 2021 64FJORD TRENDS 2021EMPATHY CHALLENGE EMPATHY CHALLENGE s weve observed in previous Fjord Trends reports, people are increasingly concerned about the purpose and ethics of the organizations they work for and whose products or services they use. Climate ch
32、ange has been a major concern in recent years but, for many people, inequality became one of the dominant issues in 2020. The word “privilege” has become far more widely used, with renewed energy in the Black Lives Matter movement and countless impassioned discussions about racial injustice. Meanwhi
33、le, longstanding inequalities WHATS GOING ON? A The fight for equality became a prevalent issue in 2020, with George Floyds death sparking impassioned Black Lives Matter protests. 65 FJORD TRENDS 2021 65FJORD TRENDS 2021 between rich and poor, old and young, men and women, as well as dif- ferent eth
34、nic groups were thrown into sharp focus because Covid-19s impact was felt so unevenly around the world. Pandemics tend to exacerbate existing inequalities for women and girls especially, but also for groups like people with disabilities and those in extreme poverty. Analysis of Covid-19 deaths in a
35、number of countries, including the US and UK, showed ongoing wide disparities by race. American women were three times more likely than men not to work during the pandemic because of childcare. Though American parents doubled the time they spent on education and household tasks before the pandemic,
36、mothers spent 15 hours more on average per week than fathers. Meanwhile, 80% of the 1.1 million workers who dropped out of the US workforce in September were women. On the subject of another existing inequality, Rodrigo Baggio, president of Recode, said, “The new reality is that Covid has accelerate
37、d and increased the digital divide. We are in a new kind of apartheid, a digital apartheid. Its more than a divide. People are excluded and dont have access in Brazil, in Latin America, in Africa.” Pandemics also create new inequalities. People whose employment had previously been stable and who now
38、 find themselves jobless in a difficult market are new casualties of existing inequalities. Closure of schools worldwide hit some children harder than others, with consequences of isolation such as delayed cognitive, emotional and social development. Meanwhile, young workers are hit especially hard
39、having to work from home, and not just because many cant accommodate a home office. Theyre also lacking the opportunity to build up social capital with colleagues, to nurture relationships essential for career advancement, and the ability to observe and learn from others in person. We flagged compan
40、ies growing interest in meeting the needs of all stakeholders in last years Fjord Trends. As it seems to become the norm, issues around stakeholder management like guarding against disenfran- chisement in staff, customers or shareholders are moving centerstage, which is making it more important than
41、 ever to manage narratives well. Narratives are the stories we tell to express or prove our position or beliefs. Social media put narratives front and center because it gives everyone a chance to create them, like them, spread them and critique them. There have never been more different narratives f
42、ighting for our attention than there are today. Many of them are framed by culture wars, and some of those run contradictory to the truth. The easier it is EMPATHY CHALLENGE EMPATHY CHALLENGE 2020 brought new inequalities as people whose finances had previously been stable found themselves unemploye
43、d. 66 FJORD TRENDS 2021 66FJORD TRENDS 2021 to access information, the more vulnerable we are to being deliberately misled or to believing unsubstantiated claims. Companies now have to figure out how they want to handle polarizing narratives and which side of the story, if any, they choose to suppor
44、t. Staying silent is a choice and a statement on its own as well. A cryptocurrency broker told employees it wouldnt stand for politics or social issues being championed in the office that took away focus on the companys mission, which it felt was already purpose-driven. The announce- ment sparked a
45、passionate social media debate, and anyone who didnt like it was given the opportunity to leave with four to six months severance pay, at which point 60 employees some 5% left the company. On the other side of the spectrum, we see strong stances like Expensify CEO Dave Barretts plea to its 10 millio
46、n customers to vote for Joe Biden for US President, which infused politics directly into the business. Weve also seen how governments have tried to tackle their official narratives in reaction to our ongoing health emergency. In Finland, the government enlisted influencers to communicate information
47、 about the pandemic, even giving them “key worker” status. The Taiwanese govern- ment executed a “humor over rumor” campaign that effectively quashed Covid-19 misinformation, by using “civic hackers” to counter a false claim with a fact-based joke within hours of the misinformed post appearing. With
48、 inequality now top of mind, both the loud and the silent ones, what companies do about it and how they talk about it within their narratives matters a great deal. However, mastering the art of doing this has likely never been harder in recent times. EMPATHY CHALLENGE EMPATHY CHALLENGE “Civic hacker
49、s” were asked by Taiwans government to counter false claims online with fact-based jokes, to limit the spread of misinformation. 67 FJORD TRENDS 2021 67FJORD TRENDS 2021 With the effects of the virus being felt unevenly around the world, many existing inequalities were highlighted. With inequality n
50、ow top of mind, both the loud and the silent ones, what companies do about it and how they talk about it within their narratives matters a great deal. 68 FJORD TRENDS 2021 68FJORD TRENDS 2021 mpathy is fundamental to good design. Its an intimate and inward-leaning understanding of the person you are
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