1、Net-zero powerLong duration energy storage for a renewable gridContentsAcronyms iAbout the Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) Council iiPreface iiiExecutive summary viData collection and benchmarking xi1. Introduction 12. LDES technologies characterization and current status 73. Modeling the flexib
2、ility needs of future power systems 154. Cost analysis 255. LDES business cases 356. Road to competitiveness and key market enablers 41Conclusion 46Appendix A: Methodology 47Appendix B: Examples of business cases 51AcronymsBoP Balance of plantCapex Capital expenditureCCS Carbon capture and storageCO
3、2 Carbon dioxideCAES Compressed air energy storageCSP Concentrated solar powerEV Electric vehicleGt CO2eq Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalentGW GigawattGWh Gigawatt-hourGHG Greenhouse gasIEA International Energy AgencyIRR Internal rate of returnIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangekW Ki
4、lowattkWh Kilowatt-hourLCOE Levelized cost of electricityLCOS Levelized cost of storageLi-ion Lithium-ionLAES Liquid air energy storageLDES Long duration energy storageMEDC More economically developed countriesMPM McKinsey Power ModelMW MegawattMWh Megawatt-hourNDC Nationally determined contribution
5、sNPV Net present valueNMC Nickel, Manganese and CobaltO&M Operation and maintenancePV PhotovoltaicPPA Power purchasing agreementsPSH Pumped storage hydropowerRE Renewable energyR&D Research and developmentRTE Round-trip efficiencyTW TerawattTWh Terawatt-hourTAM Total addressable marketT&
6、D Transmission and distributionWACC Weighted average cost of capitaliNet-zero power: Long duration energy storage for a renewable grid | LDES Council, McKinsey & CompanyThe LDES Council is a global, CEO-led organization that strives to accelerate decarbonization of the energy system at lowest co
7、st to society by driving innovation and deployment of long duration energy storage. Launched at COP26, the LDES Council provides fact-based guidance to governments and industry, drawing from the experience of its members, which include leading energy companies, technology providers, investors, and e
8、nd-users.With this first report the Council has focused on the role of LDES solutions in electrical power systems. In the future, the LDES Council will provide further insights into the LDES asset class, power and energy systems and the broader energy transition. The Council will also proactively en
9、gage with other parties on ways to accelerate decarbonization of energy systems in line with the Paris agreement.The following organizations have announced the intention of forming the Council and are open to receive expressions of interest from additional founding members ahead of the official laun
10、ch in early 2022 (Exhibit 1).The report has been prepared by the members of the LDES Council in collaboration with McKinsey & Company as knowledge partner.Exhibit 1LDES council membersEquipment manufacturersCapital providersLow-carbon energy system integrators & developersIndustry and servic
11、es customersAnchorsTechnology providersAbout the Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) CounciliiNet-zero power: Long duration energy storage for a renewable grid | LDES Council, McKinsey & CompanyPrefaceAs the world considers how to establish a path towards limiting the rise in global temperatures
12、 by curbing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), it is widely recognised that the power generation sector has a central role to play. Responsible for one third of total emissions, it is in fact doubly crucial, since decarbonizing the rest of the economy depends vitally on growing demand for renewabl
13、e energy, for example in electric vehicles and residential heating. And the good news is that the global power industry is making giant strides towards reducing emissions by switching from fossil-fired generation to wind and solar power.However, the rising share of renewables in the power mix brings
14、 with it new challenges. Not least of these are the structural strains on existing power generation infrastructure created by new flows of electricity and by the inherent variability of wind and solar power. This first report from the LDES Council aims to explore one of the key solutions to this cha
15、llenge: long-duration energy storage (LDES). LDES is defined as any technology that can be deployed competitively to store energy for prolonged periods and that can be scaled up economically to sustain electricity provision, for multiple hours, days, or even weeks, and has the potential to significa
16、ntly contribute to the decarbonization of the economy. Energy storage can be achieved through very different approaches, including mechanical, thermal, electrochemical, or chemical storage (see Box 1).The provision of flexibility, defined as the ability to absorb and manage fluctuations in demand an
17、d supply by storing energy at times of surplus and releasing it when needed, is a critical Exhibit 2LDES play a central role in energy system flexibilityLDES use casesCHP with H2production and usePower-to-heatHeat-to-powerPower-to-H2H2-to-powerH2-to-heatPowerHeatHydrogen H2peaking plants Transport (
18、material handling, heavy duty vehicles) H2household boilers Industrial heat (furnaces, boilers) CHP for district heating/cooling Heat pumps/enginesDesalination Solid oxide fuel cells / electrolyzers H2turbinesScope of this first reportiiiNet-zero power: Long duration energy storage for a renewable g
19、rid | LDES Council, McKinsey & Companyenabling factor to decarbonize the economy in a cost-efficient way. Across the portfolio of technologies, LDES can provide flexibility in the energy system as a whole, comprising power, heat, hydrogen and other forms of energy (Exhibit 2). For example, some
20、LDES technologies can discharge both heat and power (i.e., power-to-heat or heat-to-power) that can be used to decarbonize industries, or can use power to produce hydrogen via electrolysis, which can be reconverted back to power at a later time. The ability to integrate different sectors makes some
21、of the technologies unique, and strengthens the business cases for their use in decarbonizing industries where the transition is a challenge.LDES technologies are attracting unprecedented interest from governments, utilities, and transmission operators, and investment in the sector is rising fast. T
22、his report focuses on the role of novel LDES solutions in electrical power systems (please refer to Box 1 for more details on the LDES technologies covered in this report). It first examines the characteristics of the technologies and how they may be suited to help manage structural issues in the po
23、wer industry. It then considers LDES costs, how they may develop as the industry matures, and how they compare with those of other technologies that can be used to manage supply and demand such as Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries and hydrogen. Finally, it proposes some actions policy makers and indust
24、ry players can consider to enable LDES to fulfil its potential as part of the worlds net-zero solution.ivNet-zero power: Long duration energy storage for a renewable grid | LDES Council, McKinsey & CompanyWhat is the issue?PROPORTION OFRENEWABLESNEED FORFLEXIBILITYHow do LDES technologies help?W
25、here are we today and where do we need to get to?Projected installedcapacityGlobal deals in the LDES industry, USD millionHow can we make this happen?To avoid catastrophic climate change, we need to rapidly build a net-zero power sector predominantly powered by renewable energy.As the proportion of
26、renewables grows, we are presented with 3 challenges; balancing electricity supply and demand; a change in transmission fow patterns; and a decrease in system stability.LDES can help address these issues by increasing the fexibility of the power system.LDES are a host of different technologies that
27、store and release energy through mechanical, thermal, electrochemical, or chemical means.Alongside Li-ion battery technology and hydrogen, LDES technologies can play a critical and distinctive role in delivering fexibility on times ranging from hours to weeks.Many LDES technologies currently exist,
28、but they are at different levels of maturity. Some have been deployed commercially, some are still at the pilot phase.Our projections show that LDES need to be scaled up dramatically over the next 20 years to build a cost-optimal net-zero energy system. For LDES to be cost optimal, costs must decrea
29、se by 60%. However, even greater cost reductions have already occurred in other clean technologies like solar and wind.Between 202240, USD 1.5 tr3.0 tr of total investment in LDES will be required. The total investment over this period is comparable to what isinvested in transmission and distributio
30、n networks every 24 years.This investment has the potential to create economic and environmental benefit. The business cases for LDES can often be positive if suffcient mechanisms are in place to monetize the value.By 2040, LDES need to have scaled up to 400 x present day levels to 1.52.5 TW (85140
31、TWh). 10% of all electricity generated would be stored in LDES at some point.Present-day LDES deployment is low, but momentum in LDES is growing exponentially.The value of LDES can be unlocked through regulation change: Long-term system planning Support for frst deployment and scaling up Market crea
32、tion20300.10.4 TW48 TWh1.52.5 TW85140 TWh Today2040 0 TW0 TWhPre-200202021Total98002,640vNet-zero power: Long duration energy storage for a renewable grid | LDES Council, McKinsey & CompanyThe world is not on track to limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5 Celsius. To
33、achieve the commitments made in the Paris Agreement, significant efforts must be made to reduce emissions across all sectors. The power sector, which accounts for roughly one-third of global emissions, will be central to global decarbonization, with many suggesting that it will need to achieve net-z
34、ero emissions by 2040. As a result, innovative solutions will be essential to meet three critical challenges for the power sector: tripling the amount of electricity produced to meet rising consumption, transforming the power system from fossil-powered generation to renewables, and meeting the socia
35、l and economic cost of the transition. Based on more than 10,000 cost and performance data points, this study shows that Long Duration Energy Storage technologies (LDES) can play a crucial role in helping create the system flexibility and stability required by an increasing renewable share in power
36、generation, alongside other technologies such as Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries and hydrogen turbines. LDES encompasses a range of technologies that can store electrical energy in various forms for prolonged periods at a competitive cost and at scale. These technologies can then discharge electrical
37、 energy when neededover hours, days, or even weeksto fulfill long-duration system flexibility needs beyond short-duration solutions such as Li-ion batteries. The various LDES technologies are at different levels of maturity and market readiness. This report focuses on the relatively nascent mechanic
38、al, thermal, chemical, and electrochemical storage technologies, instead of Li-ion batteries, dispatchable hydrogen assets, and large-scale aboveground pumped storage hydropower (PSH) (more details about LDES technologies are provided in Box 1). The rapid integration of large RE capacities with thei
39、r inherent variability creates large challenges for the power system, including potential imbalances in supply and demand, changes in transmission flow patterns, and the potential for greater system instability as the built-in inertia provided by fossil generation is removed. All of these call for n
40、ew solutions to create flexibility in electricity supply and demand over different durations intraday, multiday/multiweek, and seasonal. LDES is one of these solutions, since LDES technologies entail low marginal costs for storing electricity: they enable decoupling of the quantity of electricity st
41、ored and the speed with which it is taken in or released; they are widely deployable and scalable; and they have relatively low lead times compared to upgrading of transmission and distribution (T&D) grids. As a result, there is increasing investment interest in these technologies, with more tha
42、n 5 gigawatts (GW) and 65 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of LDES announced or already operational.This is only a start: modeling suggests that LDES has the potential to deploy 1.5 to 2.5 terawatts (TW) power capacityor 8 to 15 times the total storage capacity deployed todayglobally by 2040. Likewise, it could
43、 deploy 85 to 140 terawatt-hours (TWh) of energy capacity by 2040 and store up to 10 percent of all electricity consumed. This corresponds to a cumulative investment of USD 1.5 trillion to USD 3 trillion and to potential value creation of USD 1.3 trillion by 2040. The scale of these numbers reflects
44、 the multiple use cases for LDES technologies and the central role they can play in balancing the power system and making it more efficient. These include support for system stability, firming corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) and optimisation of energy for industries with remote or unrelia
45、ble grids. Similarly, there is a lot of potential in using LDES in off-grid systems, which have a lower level of flexibility and currently rely heavily on fossil fuels. But by far the largest proportion of deployment is expected to be related to the central tasks of energy shifting, capacity provisi
46、on, and T&D optimization in bulk power systems. Executive summaryviNet-zero power: Long duration energy storage for a renewable grid | LDES Council, McKinsey & CompanyIn sum, LDES offers a lower-cost flexibility solution in manybut not allsituations. A diversified suite of solutions is likel
47、y to be deployed in order to achieve a cost-optimal decarbonization of the grid by 2040. The prize of deploying LDES at scale, however, is great. It is estimated that by 2040, LDES deployment could result in the avoidance of 1.5 to 2.3 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2eq) per year, or
48、around 10 to 15 percent of todays power sector emissions. In the US alone, LDES could reduce the overall cost of achieving a fully decarbonized power system by around USD 35 billion annually by 2040. Achieving this order of scale requires significant reductions in the cost of LDES technologies. But
49、projections provided by LDES Council member companies show these are achievable and in line with learning curves experienced in other nascent energy technologies in the recent past, including solar photovoltaic and wind power. In turn, cost reductions will be dependent on improvements in research an
50、d development (R&D), volumes, and scale efficiencies in manufacturing. Similarly, total LDES deployment is closely tied to the rate of decarbonization of the power sector and the deployment of variable renewable energy (RE) generation. While LDES technologies are still nascent, deployment could accelerate rapidly in the next few years. Modeling proje
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