1、for a Sustainable Mobile Industry in the 5G Era Supportive Policies March 2020 1 Executive Summary The mobile industry plays a key role in boosting the growth of the global economy. In 2019, mobile technologies and services generated 4.7% of GDP globally. By 2024, the mobile industrys contribution w
2、ill reach $4.9 trillion (4.9% of GDP). Research shows that every $1 invested in digital technologies over the past three decades has added $20 to GDP, on average. Digital Spillover, Huawei and Oxford Economics, 2017 5G will be a key pillar of the era of intelligent connectivity, supporting economic
3、growth, transforming businesses and delivering innovative new services. However, the outlook for the mobile industry is subdued, with revenue growth modest at best. While global mobile traffic has grown 1,000 times in the past decade, operator revenue growth was lower than GDP growth in many countri
4、es. This is a challenge to the future development of the mobile industry, despite its role in supporting the digital transformation of both society and economies. Moreover, 5G deployment will bring new challenges, including the large cost incurred by the demands for more spectrum, the heavy financia
5、l burden of network deployment as well as multilateral coordination with diverse vertical industries. Therefore, more supportive policies are needed from governments and regulators if the mobile industry is to realise the full potential of 5G and so enable both digital transformation and to further
6、support global economic growth. In this white paper, a number of recommendations from 5G pioneering countries are reviewed, including those from China, Finland, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Germany. Based on the learnings from 5G national plans, the paper highlights the following elements for count
7、ries deploying 5G networks: More exclusive spectrum assigned to mobile operators at more reasonable prices. Lower taxes and tax reliefs to stimulate 5G investments. 5G as a critical enabler for national broadband ambitions. Policies to encourage innovation and industrial collaboration. Facilitate ac
8、cess to public infrastructure to accelerate 5G deployments. - - - - - 2 Contents Executive Summary Contents 1 5G will be the key enabler for national ICT transformation 2 A supportive public policy environment underlies the sustainable development of 5G 1 2 3 5 8 8 10 10 11 134 Policy implications 1
9、1 3.5Germany: Infrastructure measures to accelerate 5G deployment 3.4Finland: Digital infrastructure strategy 3.3South Korea: Lower taxes and light-touch policy for 5G innovation 3.2 3.1China: Reduction of frequency utilisation fees, Dual Gigabit Plan to speed up digital transformation Saudi Arabia:
10、 Reduction of annual fees 3 Best practices for supportive policies 3 ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has become a fundamental element of modern soci- ety and can help to deliver sustainable economic growth. Research shows that every $1 invested in digital technologies over the past th
11、ree decades has added $20 to GDP (Gross Domestic Product), on average. This is an enormous return compared to non-digital investments, which delivered an average return of around US $3 to US $1 invested. Digital Spillover, Huawei and Oxford Economics, 2017 Mobile industry plays a key role in boostin
12、g the fast growth of global economy. In 2019, mobile technolo- gies and services generated 4.7% of GDP globally, a contribution that amounted to $4.1 trillion of economic value added. By 2024, mobiles contribution will reach $4.9 trillion (4.9% of GDP) as countries around the globe increasingly bene
13、fit from the improvements in productivity and efficiency brought about by increased take-up of mobile services. 5G will be the key enabler for national ICT transformation 4 $480 $1,100 $2,530 $4,110 $500 $1,150 $2,620 $510 $1,190 $2,720 $530 $1,240 $2,820 $550 $1,280 $2,930 $570 $1,340 $3,020 $4,270
14、 $4,420 $4,590 $4,760 $4,930 2002220232024 billion DirectIndirectProductivityTotal Source: GSMA Intelligence Figure 1: Mobile industry contribution to global economy (20192024) 5G is the fifth-generation wireless technology for digital cellular networks. Compared with 4G, 5G utilizes a ra
15、nge of spectrum (including much higher frequencies) and a new network architecture to help significantly boost overall performance. 5G will potentially deliver data rates of over 10 Gbps, millisecond-level latency, and the capability to support massive connections. With these features, 5G could hera
16、ld a world filled with unlimited possibilities and an exciting new era that promises the connectivity of everything. 5G will herald a range of services and capabilities for both consumers and enterprises, accelerating industrial transformation and digitisation, and act as the cornerstone of the digi
17、tal society. 5G will elevate the role of mobile networks to not only connect people, but also connect and control a whole new range of machines, objects, and devices, and provide enhanced capacity with always-on connectivity. 5G will deliver new levels of performance and efficiency that will empower
18、 new user experiences and help to develop new industries. The wide range of potential 5G applications will act as a driving force for entrepre- neurial development and innovation, as well as accelerating industrial transformation and digitisation. In the future, 5G will be deeply integrated with clo
19、ud computing, big data, AI (Artificial Intelligence) and edge computing; building a new generation of ubiquitous intelligent infrastructure and serving as the cornerstone of the digital society. - - - 5 Over the past decade, the rapid development of the mobile industry, especially with the deploymen
20、t of 3G and 4G networks, has created a range of new services and in particular new ways for people to communicate. Nowadays, peoples social activities, shopping, transportation, and entertainment are heavily dependent on the use of mobile networks and services. This is not just a change in technolog
21、y, but also relies on huge investment in mobile communica- tion infrastructure by the operators. Global mobile operators have invested hundreds of billions of dollars each year in the construction and mainte- nance of mobile communications to meet the growing demand for data traffic. The widespread
22、use of smartphones, affordable data plans, and the diversity of apps and content have further stimulated the growth in mobile data traffic. Global data consump- tion across mobile networks has increased from 0.04 to 38 Exabyte (EB) per month from 20092019 Ericsson Mobility Report. Its about 1000 tim
23、es growth, doubling at a rapid rate of every 12 to 18 months. These huge investment from mobile operators not only support the growing volumes of data traffic and facilitate consumers new digital lifestyles, but also facilitate the digital transformation of other vertical industries. For example, in
24、ternet players have relied on the ongoing improvements in mobile network speed and coverage to grow their user bases. Goo- gles market value has tripled in the past decade; Netflixs market value has risen by more than 20 times; and Facebook has risen by more than 100 times. In the future, the growin
25、g number of mobile subscrib- ers and a range of new services will further fuel the growth of mobile traffic. This huge growth in data is supported by the ongoing efforts of the entire mobile industry, including investment in spectrum, sites, and new network technologies. The mobile industry underpin
26、s the digital society, requiring better infrastructure in future 2 A supportive public policy environ- ment underlies the sustainable de- velopment of 5G The rapid growth in data traffic volumes requires significantly more spectrum, which leads to higher spectrum costs for operators. Driven by the e
27、ver-in- creasing demands of mobile data consumption, one of the critical improvements that 5G offers over previ- ous generations of cellular technologies is the support for additional spectrum bands, including in higher frequencies. This will allow 5G networks to deliver a multi-gigabit user experie
28、nce and a mas- sive increase in capacity. However, the need for new spectrum may incur heavy costs for operators, which could further hinder the 5G deployment progress. Many countries around the world have adopted auctions to assign spectrum. While auctions can be an efficient market-based approach
29、when properly designed, a number of auctions appear to have focused on revenue generation rather than efficient spectrum allocations. The high spectrum prices in those markets have seriously hampered operators ability to invest in networks and negatively impacted network quality and coverage. The si
30、gnificant investment in 5G deployments will The mobile industry faces a range of challenges in the 5G era Mobile industry revenue growth has stagnated in recent years. In contrast to the rapidly growing data volumes and associated network costs, the revenue growth of operators has been declining. Th
31、e growth rate of mobile carriers revenue in the past decade has fallen from the 6% 7% range to less than 1.5%. Considering an average of 3% global inflation rate over the past decade, in real terms operators revenue growth has been almost stag- nant. Going forward, GSMA Intelligence forecasts the ov
32、erall industry revenues will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3% over the period to 2025. 6 Source: IMF 50% in the fifth Best practices for supportive policies China: Reduction of frequency utilisation fees, Dual Gigabit Plan to speed up digital trans- formation 3.1 Reduction of fre
33、quency utilization fees 9 As it stepped into the 5G era, Chinas government announced its Dual Gigabit Plan, gigabit fibre + Giga 5G, to accelerate digital society transformation and promote sustainable economic growth from 2019 onwards. The state council of China declared the target that This year (
34、2019), fibre-to-household access ports will account for more than 90 percent of the total, and 5G gigabit broadband access networks will be deployed in more than 300 cities, bringing fixed and mobile broadband into the Gigabit era. On November 1, 2019, Chinas Gigabyte urban construction index system
35、 was officially released, which clarified the development direction and key work of current Chinas urban Gigabyte optical fibre broadband and 5G deployment. It is of great signifi- cance to the development of the Giga city concept. Under the guidance of the Ministry of industry and information techn
36、ology (MIIT), the broadband devel- opment alliance and China Academy of Information and Communication Technology (CAICT) have joint- ly organized relevant units to study and formulate the Gigabyte urban construction index system in China through field research, in-depth analysis, research, discussio
37、n and consultation. Specifically, the first phase focuses on network infra- structure capacity and coverage. It includes the coverage of urban gigabit optical fibre networks, the proportion of urban 10G PON (Passive Optical Network) ports, the proportion of 5G base stations, the coverage of Gigabit
38、broadband and the coverage year; and 75% in the sixth year; before returning to normal fees from the seventh year. Such extensive measures to reduce spectrum fees was a first for Chinas mobile industry. This will reduce the opera- tors spectrum cost burden and allow the operators to invest more into
39、 network deployments, laying a solid foundation for the sustainable development of 5G in China. Source: official website of the state council of China Figure 3: Deduction on Spectrum License Fees in China Set up Dual Gigabit Plan to speed up digital transformation 123456789 0%0%0% 25% 50% 75% 100%10
40、0%100% . . Old price（RMB k/MHz/Year）New Price（RMB k/MHz/Year）1 USD7 RMB In January 2014, the then Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning (now Ministry of Science and ICT) announced its plan to inject $1.49 billion into local businesses to help build 5G networks in South Korea. In December 2018
41、, South Korea reviewed its taxation framework and cut a further 2-3% from the tax on network investment to support the roll out of 5G infra- structure. In April 2019, South Korea announced its 5G+ strate- gy to further develop the 5G ecosystem and to foster the creation of a number of 5G-based strat
42、egic industries. It outlined that South Korea would create programs to support advancements in industrial structure (10 trillion won between 20192021), a KP Innovation fund (1.2 trillion won between 20192022), and a smart factory fund (300 billion won for 20192021). Based on the carrier networks, 13
43、 open test platforms were built in five areas providing test and demonstration services for small and medium-sized enterprises, reducing the barrier for 5G innovation. 10 Saudi Arabia: Reduction of annual fees3.2 In 2016, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia developed its Saudi Vision 2030 plan to reduce Sau
44、di Arabias dependence on oil, diversify its economy, and develop public services such as health, education, infrastructure, recreation and tourism. The National Transformation Program 2020 for the transformation of the ICT sector was launched to fill the policy gaps and to meet the requirements of V
45、ision 2030, as well as to identify the main challenges over the next five years. Goals include reinforcing economic and investment activities, increasing non-oil industry trade between countries, and increasing government spending on manufacturing equipment. Broadband infrastructure was one of the m
46、ajor challenges identified. To help achieve these targets, the government reduced the top three mobile operators annual royalty fees from 15% to 10% of net revenues to encourage the national ICT transfora- tion. South Korea: Lower taxes and light-touch policy for 5G innovation 3.3 of 5G network in k
47、ey locations. In the second stage, the evaluation indicators will mainly consider the development and users pene- tration rate, mainly including the development and popularization of Gigabit fixed broadband service and 5G mobile broadband service users. The third stage evaluation index is focused on
48、 busi- ness application and industry promotion. The focus of consideration will be on the enterprise proportion of 5G data traffic, HD IPTV users, available download rates of fixed and mobile users, 5G internet of things connections and applications in key industries such as industrial internet, the
49、 internet of things and the internet of vehicles. 11 Finland: Digital infrastructure strategy3.4 The Digital Infrastructure Strategy 2025 is Finlands overarching national policy to position itself in line with global trends and development, such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and IoT, and to empower the country to establish infrastructure that supports and propels innovation, digitalization and new service creation. It plac
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