1、Copyright 2019 GSM Association The Mobile Economy Russia networks in the regions other 10 markets will be live by 2025. The CIS will be home to around 54 million 5G connections by 2025, representing an adoption rate of 13%. Between 2019 and 2025, mobile revenue in the CIS is forecast to remain large
2、ly stable. However, market-level analysis paints a more nuanced picture. In certain countries, we expect greater smartphone adoption, 4G upgrades and growing data usage to deliver some revenue uplift. In others, factors such as plateauing subscriber penetration and acute competition could contribute
3、 to negative revenue growth, possibly pressing the case for structural change. Over the same period, operators are forecast to invest $39 billion in capex, of which more than 70% will be 5G-specific. Delivering 5G connectivity will increase capital intensity, stretching operators financial resources
4、. Executive Summary 1. We use the term CIS in this report to refer to the Commonwealth of Independent States, including Russia. 2. Total unique users who have subscribed to mobile services at the end of the period, excluding machine-to-machine (M2M). Subscribers differ from connections such that a u
5、nique user can have multiple connections. 3. Excluding licensed cellular IoT The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Executive Summary 2 Mobiles significant contribution to jobs and the economy In 2018, mobile technologies and services generated 4.7% of GDP in the CIS, a contribution of $101 billion
6、of economic value added. In the period to 2023, this figure will increase to $122 billion (5.1% of GDP). The mobile ecosystem supported 620,000 jobs in the CIS in 2018, either through direct employment or indirectly through activity in the wider economy. Mobile also contributes to the funding of the
7、 public sector, raising $12 billion in 2018 mainly via general taxation. 5G technologies are expected to contribute $34 billion to the CIS economy over the next 15 years, impacting key sectors such as manufacturing, utilities and construction. 5G mobile networks offer the potential to underpin a ran
8、ge of solutions for enterprises, in addition to serving the consumer market. However, uncertainty around spectrum access and returns on investment can be significant barriers to releasing value into the digital economy. Policymakers should consider the rollout of 5G a vehicle for driving socioeconom
9、ic growth and the transformation of traditional industries. The regulatory framework should foster the mobile industrys development within an environment that is conducive to investment. Launches of 5G networks in other markets indicate that a key factor behind their successful deployment and operat
10、ion is the creation of a comprehensive national 5G development plan. Policies to support the regions burgeoning digital economy The Internet of Things (IoT) is an area where mobile operators can grow their business beyond traditional communications. Industrial IoT connections in the CIS will see str
11、ong growth out to 2025, driven by increased interest in smart cities and smart utilities. With IoT revenue set to reach $26 billion in 2025, operators are implementing strategies designed to capture opportunities at the applications, platforms and services layer. Further, operators are seeking to in
12、vest or formalise partnerships in the e-commerce market, particularly as smartphone and mobile broadband adoption rates grow. The industry is also exploring potential applications of, and devising solutions based on, artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technologies, and injecting greater fun
13、ds in the start-up ecosystem to protect itself from disruption and diversify revenues. Regional innovation underpinned by mobile connectivity The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Executive Summary 3 Russia 58% of Russian consumers expect 5G to deliver an improvement in data speeds, which operators
14、 may use as a marketing differentiator against 4G.5 With fibre broadband access already a fairly mature market in the likes of Belarus,6 5G-based fixed wireless services may find opportunities limited in the short run. Although IoT and enterprise solutions (such as for smart cities, autonomous vehic
15、les and public security systems) are being explored, they will take time to develop. The CIS region will not be at the forefront of 5Gs development; certain markets are set to be fast followers Figure 5 1.3 The first 5G launches are on the horizon, though take-up will not grow rapidly Source: GSMA I
16、ntelligence 5. GSMA Intelligence Consumer Survey 2018 6. FTTH Council Europe Panorama, IDATE, 2019 BelarusUkraine Russia KazakhstanAzerbaijanArmenia Georgia Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan MoldovaTurkmenistan Uzbekistan 2020202242025 5G launches The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile mar
17、ket in numbers 12 Operators are preparing for the 5G era Russian operator Tele2 has launched a 5G pilot zone in central Moscow in the 28 GHz band in non-standalone (NSA) mode. Though the Ministry of Communications has rejected a series of 3.4-3.8 GHz trial applications, it is expected to assign 4.4-
18、4.99 GHz and millimetre wave (mmWave) spectrum to test 5G later in 2019. A number of 5G test zones have now been opened in Belarus, allowing firms to test innovative applications of the technology. Meanwhile, in September 2019 a working group comprising operators and government agencies will present
19、 its provisional framework for the deployment of 5G across the country. Azerbaijani operator Azercell has selected Ericsson to modernise its radio access network (RAN) to be 5G-ready over a two-year programme, which will include the supply of services and multi- standard radio equipment nationwide.
20、The three largest cities in Kazakhstan Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana), Almaty and Shymkent will be covered with 5G “in the near future”, according to Kazakhtelecom. The operators three-phase pilot programme is scheduled for the 2019-2021 period and will test 5G use cases, including fixed wireless, eMB
21、B and M2M communications. With the majority of launches a few years away, critical mass for 5G in the CIS is still some way off Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 6 Millions 13% 42% ConnectionsAdoption (%)Population coverage (%) 2020202242025 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 The Mobile Economy Russia and
22、 CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 13 Russia will lead 5G adoption, with 5G accounting for nearly a fifth of connections in 2025 Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 7 5G as a share of total connections (excluding licensed cellular IoT) 5% Georgia 12% Kazakhstan 13% CIS 19% Russia 19% Belarus The Mob
23、ile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 14 At the end of 2018, smartphones accounted for 57% of connections in the CIS, compared to 73% in Europe and 83% in Northern America. This reflects issues around affordability and the fact that the region is comprised to varying degrees o
24、f majority prepaid markets, with few handset subsidies or financing offers. 1.4 Data demand surges as consumers transition from connected to digital Smartphone connections will exceed 330 million by 2025, with data growth spurred by take-up of more affordable devices Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure
25、8 CISRussiaUkraineUzbekistan 57% 62% 60% 45% 77% 79% 82% 74% 4.5%3.4%4.6%7.3% CAGR20252018 The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 15 Intense competition is keeping retail prices low relative to many developed markets, helping expand data volumes Mobile data traffic in th
26、e CIS will grow six-fold between 2017 and 2022 Source: GSMA Intelligence Source: GSMA Intelligence, Cisco VNI 20187 Figure 9 Figure 10 2022Growth rates2017 Cost of 5 GB premium basket ($ per month) Exabytes per month 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 KazakhstanKyrgyzstanRussiaItalySpainGermanyUSIndia 40.0
27、 28.4 6.8 20.5 6.1 3.6 3.1 2.1 x4.5 x6.0 x5.0 x5.3 RussiaRest of CEEN. AmericaEU5Rest of W. Europe 0.31.3 0.60.6 3.5 3.7 5.8 1.6 0.7 3.5 7. Rest of CEE = Rest of Central and Eastern Europe. For more information, see (regional average) The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbe
28、rs 16 Largely flat revenue forecast for the region between 2019 and 2025 obscures market-level differences Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 11 1.5 A stable revenue outlook for the CIS as the next wave of capital spending begins $ billion With some of the lowest mobile data prices and ARPU levels glob
29、ally, the revenue outlook in the CIS is likely to remain modest until operators more effectively monetise strong data traffic growth and cultivate new revenue streams. Leading operators have been active in developing digital platforms and services; however, these have had less impact on top line tre
30、nds so far than has been the case in markets such as Turkey, while VEONs app was not widely adopted.8 5G offers some clear revenue potential, though this is unlikely to be realised in the short term. Despite competitive pressures and relatively low pricing, service revenue trends in Russia improved
31、during 2017-18. Beyond 2019, revenue growth is expected to be positive, albeit at a subdued rate of less than 1% on average and below inflation, which is currently holding above the central banks 4% target. In contrast, other CIS markets will see total revenue decline over the 2019-2025 period. Ukra
32、ine and Uzbekistan (the second and third largest markets after Russia) are projected to experience falling revenue, with only Azerbaijan and Moldova exhibiting a positive revenue forecast for the coming years. 8. “VEON: When Transformation Goes Bad”, Light Reading, July 2018 RussiaOther CIS marketsY
33、oY growth rates 0.1% 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 20002242025 6.0% The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 17 Growing number of 5G launches post-2020 will drive an upturn in aggregate capex levels, with 5G accounting for more than 70% of operator sp
34、end to 20259 Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 12 RussiaOther CIS marketsRegional capex/ revenue (%) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 21% 20% 19% Capex, $ billion 20022202320242025 The Yarovaya law, which came into force in July 2018, will also affect cashflows over the coming years for
35、Russian operators a factor not reflected in our forecasts. This law obliges telcos to store voice, SMS and data traffic records for up to six months. Operators are investing significant sums in secure storage software and facilities; MegaFon recorded a capex increase of 13.2% in 2018 compared with 2
36、017, citing compliance with the law as a major investment project.10 Company estimates for the Yarovaya laws financial impact range from RUB40-60 billion ($608-912 million) over a five-year period. 9. 2025 Capex outlook: financing the 5G era, GSMA Intelligence, 2019 10. Other such projects included
37、the accelerated rollout of LTE/LTE-A and VoLTE networks, and the further development of MegaFons billing platform: 2019-2025 spend Total 5G $28bn $39bn The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 The mobile market in numbers 18 02 Mobile driving growth and enabling innovation The Mobile Economy Russia an
38、d CIS 2019 Mobile driving growth and enabling innovation 19 MOBILE ECOSYSTEM The mobile ecosystem generated $23 billion of economic value in 2018, with mobile operators accounting for close to 75% Additional indirect and productivity benefits bring the total contribution of the mobile industry to $1
39、01 billion Figure 13 Figure 14 Source: GSMA Intelligence Source: GSMA Intelligence 2.1 Mobiles contribution to economic growth and jobs $ billion, % GDP 2018 $ billion, % GDP 2018 Infrastructure providers IndirectProductivity Mobile operatorsDistributors and retailers Content, apps and service provi
40、ders 0.1% $2.0 $5 $74$101 0.8% $17.0 0.1% $2.5 0.1% $1.5 Rest of mobile ecosystem $17 $6 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 3.5% 4.7% TotalMobile operators The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Mobile driving growth and enabling innovation 20 The mobile ecosystem employs 620,000 people: 270,000 directly and 350,000 th
41、rough related industries In 2018, the mobile ecosystem contributed $12 billion to the funding of the public sector through general taxation Figure 15 Figure 16 Source: GSMA Intelligence Source: GSMA Intelligence Note: totals may not add up due to rounding. Jobs (millions) $ billion DIRECT INDIRECT T
42、OTAL Infrastructure providers Services VAT, sales taxes and excise duties Handset VAT, sales taxes, excise and customs duties Corporate taxes on profits Employment taxes and social security Total Mobile operators Device manufacturers Distributors and retailers (formal) Distributors and retailers (in
43、formal) Content, apps and service providers 15 1501 50 45 10270 350620 $12.0 $1.5 $1.5 $3.5 $5.5 The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Mobile driving growth and enabling innovation 21 Driven mostly by productivity gains, the economic contribution of mobile will increase by over $20 billion by 2023
44、Figure 17Source: GSMA Intelligence 5G will contribute $34 billion to the global economy over the next 15 years11 Figure 18Source: GSMA $34 billion by 2034 5.2% of GDP growth 2002120222023 23 5 23 5 23 5 23 5 24 5 25 5 92 88 85 81 78 74 Productivity% of GDPIndirectDirect 11. For more infor
45、mation, see Study on Socio-Economic Benefits of 5G Services Provided in mmWave Bands, GSMA, 2018 4.7% 4.8% 4.9% 5.0%5.0% 5.1% 12% 31% 25% 15% 18% Agriculture 60% use their device to conduct online banking activities at least once per month, often enabled by operators mobile apps, which provide a pla
46、tform for a range of services. A higher percentage of Russian smartphone users access e-government services on a monthly basis compared with some of the leading European markets. Access to public services via the internet is an important driver of digital inclusion, reflected by the Russian governme
47、nts launch of an online portal in 2009. 12. 13. The annual survey measures the level of engagement among smartphone and non-smartphone owners across 26 use cases and services in 10 categories. 36,000 people surveyed in total: 1,000 respondents aged over 18 years old in 32 surveyed countries, plus 2,
48、000 in each of China and India. The Mobile Economy Russia and CIS 2019 Mobile driving growth and enabling innovation 23 INDUSTRIAL CONSUMER Consumer behaviour continues to evolve, as mobile devices get smarter, digital services grow richer and societies become more connected. In the CIS, todays digi
49、tal consumers will likely become tomorrows augmented customers in the 5G era; they will increasingly adopt emerging technologies such as immersive reality; smart homes solutions; and new services, including drone delivery and autonomous cars. While this presents an opportunity for mobile operators, the challenge remains to balance network investment and the monetisation of rising data traffic. 400 million new IoT connections by 2025; smart homes and smart buildings the two key growth areas Figure 20Source: GSMA Intelligence 2.3 Mobile facilitating
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