1、 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 证券研究报告|行业专题研究 2024 年 05 月 11 日 轻工制造轻工制造 出口持续改善，内需结构分化出口持续改善，内需结构分化 大宗纸：旺季需求改善，提价落地，盈利环比改善。大宗纸：旺季需求改善，提价落地，盈利环比改善。1）浆纸系：旺季需求改善叠加成本上升驱动提价落地，浆纸同涨共驱盈利修复，其中太阳纸太阳纸业业凭借原材料战略布局优势及成本管控能力，盈利表现超预期；2）废纸系：下游需求复苏、产业库存低位驱动提价窄幅落地。预计 24Q2 文化纸价格维稳、白卡预计低位震荡，浆纸系吨盈利预计呈下滑态势；废纸价格Q2 预计延续磨底，产销量改善情况

2、下龙头吨盈利有望小幅改善。此外，龙头产能扩张接近尾声，行业逐步进入 Capex 下行周期。推荐太阳纸业太阳纸业，关注玖龙纸业、山鹰国际、博汇纸业、岳阳林纸、晨鸣纸业玖龙纸业、山鹰国际、博汇纸业、岳阳林纸、晨鸣纸业等。特种纸：成本稳定、提价落地，盈利复苏。特种纸：成本稳定、提价落地，盈利复苏。受益于低价浆入库，企业成本上升较为平滑，叠加 23Q3 纸企逐步提价，盈利稳步修复。展望未来，仙仙鹤股份、五洲特纸、冠豪高新鹤股份、五洲特纸、冠豪高新 Q2 均价向上、成本可控，吨盈利预计高位稳定；华旺科技华旺科技受行业供给增加影响，价盘预计稳定，吨盈利小幅承压。此外，根据我们测算，2023 年行业 CR9

3、 为 61.0%（同比+3.3pct），龙头凭规模、产业链一体化布局等强化成本优势，行业集中度预计持续提升。推荐仙鹤股份、华旺科技、五洲特纸仙鹤股份、华旺科技、五洲特纸，关注冠豪高新、恒达新材、齐峰新冠豪高新、恒达新材、齐峰新材材等。传统家居：地产压力逐步传导，经营分化加速。传统家居：地产压力逐步传导，经营分化加速。地产压力逐步显现，竣工进入下行周期，渠道客流量下降明显，上下游整合和存量房市场扩张成为核心命题，欧派欧派率先开启零售大家居探索（硬装+定制+软装），且家居龙头加速探索旧改市场。软体家居装修节奏较为滞后且更新需求占比较高，整体表现优于定制，其中床垫龙头表现更为突出；从订单节奏来看，预

4、计 Q2 地产压力将进一步显现，多品类协同提效或更新品类占比较高品类增长有望保持领先。23Q4 喜临门、志邦家居喜临门、志邦家居收入增长领先（同比+24.4%、+16.9%）；24Q1 低基数下普遍呈现增长态势，慕思股份、喜慕思股份、喜临门、索菲亚临门、索菲亚增长领先（同比+25.5%、+20.0%、+17.0%）。长期布局的底部位置正在模糊出现，持续关注渠道变革能力突出的公司以及更新需求占比较高的品类，推荐顾家家居、志邦家居、欧派家居、索菲亚、喜临顾家家居、志邦家居、欧派家居、索菲亚、喜临门、慕思股份、敏华控股、金牌厨柜门、慕思股份、敏华控股、金牌厨柜等。智能家居：国产替代趋势延续，价格竞争

5、激烈。智能家居：国产替代趋势延续，价格竞争激烈。2023 年智能坐便器线上零售额同比+10.0%，24Q1 同比-20.0%；行业以价换量（2019-24Q1 智能一体机行业均价由近 2700 元下探至 2000 元+），内资品牌依托生产制造&渠道优势，加码布局轻智能产品渗透下沉市场。23Q4 箭牌家居/瑞尔特/好太太收入同比+5.4%、+11.3%、+53.0%，24Q1 分别同比+2.3%、+32.3%、+5.7%，其中瑞尔特、好太太瑞尔特、好太太产品结构升级，盈利表现更为优异，推荐瑞尔特、好太太瑞尔特、好太太等，关注箭牌家居箭牌家居等。出口：订单延续改善，品牌出口：订单延续改善，品牌&供

6、应链加速出海。供应链加速出海。受益于海外库存优化、客户订单修复，出口公司 2023 年收入逐季改善、24Q1 低基数下业绩靓丽，其中恒林股份、匠心家居、嘉益股份恒林股份、匠心家居、嘉益股份等受益于下游客户份额提升、自身加 增持增持（维持维持）行业行业走势走势 作者作者 分析师分析师 姜文镪姜文镪 执业证书编号：S0680523040001 邮箱： 相关研究相关研究 1、轻工制造：美国降息预期推迟，内需企稳修复，布局结构成长机会2024-04-07 2、轻工制造：美国地产数据超预期，国内浆纸同涨2024-03-25 3、轻工制造：出口专题：全球布局、落地生根，品牌出海、征途在前2024-03-2

7、5 -32%-16%0%16%--05轻工制造沪深300 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.2 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 速渠道&品牌扩展，增长趋势优于同行。展望未来，2024Q2 各公司订单环比/同比预计均维系稳健增长，尽管海外降息预期推迟致复苏预期推迟，但整体库存低位、需求韧性突出，年内需求或保持平稳。持续关注有能力上修业绩预期或成长逻辑加强的公司，推荐恒林股份、永艺股份、匠心家恒林股份、永艺股份、匠心家居、嘉益股份居、嘉益股份，关注哈尔斯、建霖家居、西大门、致欧科技、涛涛车业、哈尔斯、建霖家居、西大门、致欧科技、

8、涛涛车业、浩洋股份、共创草坪、松霖科技、家联科技、麒盛科技、梦百合、浙江自浩洋股份、共创草坪、松霖科技、家联科技、麒盛科技、梦百合、浙江自然、久祺股份、盈趣科技、乐歌股份、天振股份然、久祺股份、盈趣科技、乐歌股份、天振股份等。消费：复苏延续分化，关注结构性成长。消费：复苏延续分化，关注结构性成长。23Q4&24Q1 社零整体表现平稳，国货品牌受益于消费结构性变化。文具行业温和复苏、动销稳健，纸巾受益于 2023 年浆价回落，卫生巾行业渠道变革、新品迭出，镜片行业竞争渐显、功能性占比提升趋势延续，宠物海外代工延续改善、品牌持续高增；公司层面，公牛、乖宝公牛、乖宝竞争力突出、持续强势，百亚百亚产品

9、&渠道逻辑变革加强，晨光、倍加洁晨光、倍加洁业绩持续改善。推荐公牛集团、百亚股份、晨光股份、公牛集团、百亚股份、晨光股份、倍加洁倍加洁等，关注博士眼镜、明月镜片、乖宝宠物、中宠股份、佩蒂股份、博士眼镜、明月镜片、乖宝宠物、中宠股份、佩蒂股份、豪悦护理、依依股份、齐心集团、源飞宠物、天元宠物、康耐特光学豪悦护理、依依股份、齐心集团、源飞宠物、天元宠物、康耐特光学等。包装：温和复苏延续，盈利表现分化。包装：温和复苏延续，盈利表现分化。1）塑料包装：增长稳健、盈利平稳，永新股份永新股份 24Q1 彩印价格承压、销量稳健增长，薄膜快速放量；2）纸包装：需求回暖、盈利分化，裕同科技裕同科技 3C 基本盘

10、持续恢复，烟包&环保包装趋势向好，新巨丰新巨丰下游需求延续弱复苏，大胜达大胜达传统包装延续平稳、烟酒包装逐步改善；3）金属包装：三片罐增长稳健、盈利改善，二片罐竞争激烈、盈利承压，龙头企业并购整合加速。推荐永新股份、裕同科技永新股份、裕同科技，关注昇昇兴股份、新巨丰、奥瑞金、大胜达、上海艾录兴股份、新巨丰、奥瑞金、大胜达、上海艾录等。风险提示风险提示：消费复苏不及预期，地产超预期下滑，浆价波动低于预期。重点标的重点标的 股票股票 股票股票 投资投资 EPS（元）（元）P E 代码代码 名称名称 评级评级 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 202

11、6E 003006.SZ 百亚股份 买入 0.55 0.71 0.91 1.20 41.09 31.83 24.84 18.83 002078.SZ 太阳纸业 买入 1.10 1.37 1.62 1.75 14.21 11.41 9.65 8.93 603195.SH 公牛集团 买入 4.34 4.98 5.75 6.64 28.42 24.77 21.45 18.58 603816.SH 顾家家居 买入 2.44 2.70 2.99 3.33 14.34 12.96 11.71 10.51 603733.SH 仙鹤股份 买入 0.94 1.52 2.04 2.56 20.40 12.62 9

12、.40 7.49 603661.SH 恒林股份 买入 1.89 3.93 4.68 5.53 25.16 12.10 10.16 8.60 603600.SH 永艺股份 买入 0.89 1.00 1.24 1.48 13.57 12.08 9.74 8.16 301061.SZ 匠心家居 买入 3.18 3.85 4.71 5.53 22.43 18.53 15.15 12.90 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 9WbUfVeU8XeZeUeU9P8Q6MoMnNpNqMfQqQrMfQrQnRbRnMmMuOnNzRMYpMpP 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.3 请仔细阅读本报告

13、末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 内容目录内容目录 1 板块估值底部，基金重仓环比下行.6 2 稳健成长的高股息资产价值凸显.8 3 造纸：需求回暖、提价落地，盈利逐步改善.9 3.1 大宗纸：需求改善，提价落地，盈利环比改善.9 3.2 特种纸：成本稳定、提价落地，盈利复苏.13 4 家居：地产压力传导，家居零售化改革、智能化方兴未艾.17 4.1 传统家居：地产压力逐步传导，经营分化加速.17 4.2 智能家居：渗透率稳步提升，国产替代延续，价格竞争激烈.22 5 出口：订单延续改善，品牌&供应链加速出海.24 6 消费：复苏延续分化，关注结构性成长.31 7 包装：温和复苏延续，盈利表现

14、分化.41 8 投资策略.43 9 风险提示.44 图表目录图表目录 图表 1：轻工制造板块股价走势 VS 大盘股价走势.6 图表 2：轻工制造各子板块股价走势.6 图表 3：轻工各板块估值.6 图表 4：轻工制造基金持仓比例.7 图表 5：轻工分板块基金持仓比例.7 图表 6：轻工制造板块基金重仓持股市值（亿元）.7 图表 7：造纸板块基金重仓持股市值（亿元）.8 图表 8：家居板块基金重仓持股市值（亿元）.8 图表 9：包装板块基金重仓重仓持股市值（亿元）.8 图表 10：文娱板块基金重仓重仓持股市值（亿元）.8 图表 11：板块高分红公司梳理.9 图表 12：重点造纸企业收入及利润情况一

15、览（百万元，%）.10 图表 13：重点造纸企业盈利能力一览（%）.10 图表 14：各细分纸种和原料价格（元/吨）.11 图表 15：龙头存货梳理（亿元）.12 图表 16：龙头纸企资本性支出开始呈收缩迹象，逐步进入 Capex 下行周期.12 图表 17：龙头均价、销量、吨盈利变化.13 图表 18：特种纸收入&利润拆分（单位：百万元）.14 图表 19：特种纸盈利能力拆分（%）.14 图表 20：原材料库存（亿元）.15 图表 21：特种纸细分品类供需平衡表&竞争格局.15 图表 22：行业进出口量.16 图表 23：特纸公司出口占比.16 图表 24：特纸行业市占率.16 图表 25：

16、定制家居行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%）.17 图表 26：软体家居行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%）.18 图表 27：定制家居公司分品类收入及毛利率（亿元）.19 图表 28：软体家居公司分品类收入及毛利率（亿元；%）.19 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.4 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 29：定制家居公司收入-分渠道（亿元）.20 图表 30：定制家居公司零售单店收入对比.21 图表 31：软体家居公司零售单店收入对比.21 图表 32：定制家居行业主要公司盈利能力（%）.21 图表 33：软体家居行业主要公司盈利能力（%）.22 图表 3

17、4：智能坐便器线上零售额规模及增速.22 图表 35：线上智能一体机均价趋势.22 图表 36：重点智能家居企业收入及利润情况一览（百万元，%）.23 图表 37：重点智能家居企业盈利能力一览（%）.23 图表 38：重点智能家居企业期间费率一览（%）.23 图表 39：不同地区 PMI.24 图表 40：不同地区 GDP 增速.24 图表 41：分品类出口概况.24 图表 42：美国房价走势.25 图表 43：美国贷款利率.25 图表 44：美国新房销售（万套）.25 图表 45：美国二手房销售（万套）.25 图表 46：美国零售商&批发商库销比.26 图表 47：美国家居零售商销售额&库存

18、同比.26 图表 48：美国家居批发销售额&库存同比.26 图表 49：海外不同类型零售商&品牌商收入&库存.27 图表 50：出口板块收入&利润拆分（百万元）.28 图表 51：人民币汇率.29 图表 52：CCFI 海运指数.29 图表 53：主要原材料价格变动趋势（元/吨）.29 图表 54：出口公司毛利率&归母净利率比较.30 图表 55：社会消费品累计零售额及同比（亿元，%）.31 图表 56：日用品类累计零售额及同比（亿元，%）.31 图表 57：文化办公用品累计零售额及同比（亿元，%）.31 图表 58：家具累计零售额及同比（亿元，%）.31 图表 59：轻工消费行业主要公司收入

19、及利润（百万元，%）.32 图表 60：轻工消费行业主要公司盈利能力（百万元，%）.33 图表 61：晨光股份业务拆分.34 图表 62：齐心集团业务拆分.34 图表 63：百亚电商渠道收入及增速（百万元）.35 图表 64：2024 年 3 月抖音渠道卫生巾销售额 TOP10.35 图表 65：百亚各渠道毛利率变化.35 图表 66：百亚各区域毛利率变化.35 图表 67：明月镜片业务拆分.36 图表 68：博士眼镜业务拆分.37 图表 69：中顺洁柔业务拆分.38 图表 70：中国宠物食品出口金额及增速（亿元）.38 图表 71：中国宠物尿垫出口金额及增速（亿元）.38 图表 72：天猫、

20、抖音 2024 年 3 月宠物食品销售排名.39 图表 73：公牛全品类旗舰店.39 图表 74：公牛全屋安全用电解决方案.39 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.5 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 75：登康口腔业务拆分.40 图表 76：倍加洁业务拆分.40 图表 77：轻工消费行业主要公司销售费用率（%）.41 图表 78：包装收入&利润拆分（单位：百万元）.42 图表 79：包装盈利能力拆分（单位：%）.43 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.6 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 1 板块板块估值底部，基金重仓环比下行估值底部，基金重仓环

21、比下行 整体表现弱势，不乏结构性机会。整体表现弱势，不乏结构性机会。从股价走势来看，2023 年轻工制造板块股价表现较弱，2023 年 SW 轻工制造板块股价区间涨跌幅为-7.8%，跑赢大盘 4.0%，主要系轻工板块整体估值偏低、下跌幅度相对较小；24Q1 轻工制造板块股价区间涨跌幅为-6.0%，跑输大盘 10.5%，主要系小市值公司年初下跌明显。分板块来看，造纸子板块表现相对优异，2023-24Q1 区间涨跌幅为-6.3%，主要由于浆价高位盘整，龙头资源优势持续放大；包装印刷/家居用品/文娱用品承压，2023-24Q1 区间涨跌幅分别为-12.4%/-14.4%/-24.1%。其中，嘉益股份

22、、百亚股份、匠心家居、乖宝宠物、紫江企业、康耐特光学、太阳纸业、永新股份、公牛集团、建霖家居等年初以来涨幅超 20%。从板块估值来看，截至 2024 年 4 月 30 日，轻工制造行业估值为 19.2X，处于历史 0.9%分位；分板块来看，包装印刷估值为 28.1X、处于历史 12.9%分位，造纸/家居用品/文娱用品估值分别为 14.6X/17.7X/22.1X，均处于历史底部。图表 1：轻工制造板块股价走势 VS 大盘股价走势 图表 2：轻工制造各子板块股价走势 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 3：轻工各板块估值 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究

23、所（备注：历史分位计算为 2010 年 1 月 31 日至今）-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-----------032024-04沪深300轻工制造(申万)-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%--0

24、---------032024-04SW造纸SW包装印刷SW家居用品SW文娱用品0204060801001201---------09

25、------------092024-01SW轻工制造SW造纸SW家居用品SW包装印刷SW文娱用品 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.7 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 基金持仓环比下行，基金持仓环比下行，配置结构分化配置结构分化。从基金持仓比例看，23Q4/24Q1

26、轻工制造板块持股比例为 4.7%/3.4%，环比+1.0pct/-1.4pct，其中 24Q1 造纸/家居/包装/文娱持股比例分别为 3.2%/4.2%/1.4%/3.9%，环比-0.8/-2.8/-0.5/-0.4pct。从重仓情况来看，24Q1 轻工制造板块基金重仓市值环比上行，资金配置结构进一步集中。分板块来看：1）造纸：）造纸：前四大基金重仓公司分别为太阳纸业/博汇纸业/华旺科技/仙鹤股份，重仓市值分别为 49.5 亿元/0.5 亿元/0.5 亿元/0.4 亿元，环比+14.9%/-21.8%/+16.7%/新增。2）家居：）家居：前四大基金重仓公司分别为顾家家居/公牛集团/欧派家居/

27、索菲亚，重仓市值分别为36.0亿元/18.8亿元/13.5亿元/7.3亿元，环比+133.4%/+40.4%/-26.6%/+1.0%。3）包装：）包装：前两大基金重仓公司分别为裕同科技/永新股份，基金重仓市值分别为 13.8 亿元/1.1 亿元，环比-6.2%/+103.9%。4）文娱：）文娱：前两大基金重仓公司分别为晨光股份/明月镜片，重仓市值分别为 31.6 亿元/1.7 亿元，环比+106.7%/-52.4%。图表 4：轻工制造基金持仓比例 图表 5：轻工分板块基金持仓比例 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 6：轻工制造板块基金重仓持股市值（

28、亿元）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q1SW轻工制造SW轻工制造0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q1SW造纸SW包装印刷SW家居用品SW文娱用品0102

29、030405060太阳纸业顾家家居晨光股份公牛集团裕同科技欧派家居索菲亚志邦家居江山欧派瑞尔特明月镜片力诺特玻梦百合博汇纸业永艺股份华旺科技仙鹤股份尚品宅配五洲特纸盛通股份24Q123Q4 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.8 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 7：造纸板块基金重仓持股市值（亿元）图表 8：家居板块基金重仓持股市值（亿元）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 9：包装板块基金重仓重仓持股市值（亿元）图表 10：文娱板块基金重仓重仓持股市值（亿元）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究

30、所 2 稳健成长的高股息资产价值凸显稳健成长的高股息资产价值凸显 麒盛科技、江山欧派、嘉美包装、尚品宅配、索菲亚、永新股份麒盛科技、江山欧派、嘉美包装、尚品宅配、索菲亚、永新股份等公司当前已拥有较高的分红水平（2023 年股息率均大于 5%）；伴随资本开支逐步缩减，部分现金流充裕、利润较稳定的公司有潜在分红提升空间，相关标的包括裕同科技、慕思股份、公牛集团、裕同科技、慕思股份、公牛集团、太阳纸业太阳纸业等，其中裕同科技裕同科技前期公告 2023-2025 年三年分红承诺（每年分红比例不低于60%），公牛集团公牛集团 2023 年分红方案中将分红率提升至 71.41%，百亚股份、博士眼镜百亚股份

31、、博士眼镜等公司后续分红水平可能受品牌费用投放节奏影响。00太阳纸业 博汇纸业 华旺科技 仙鹤股份 五洲特纸 山鹰国际24Q123Q405540顾家家居公牛集团欧派家居索菲亚志邦家居江山欧派力诺特玻喜临门金牌厨柜24Q123Q40246810121416裕同科技永新股份盛通股份紫江企业嘉美包装奥瑞金24Q123Q4055晨光股份明月镜片24Q123Q4 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.9 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 11：板块高分红公司梳理 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所（注：资本开支、折旧

32、摊销、账上现金、净现金、净营运资本均为 2023 年数据；其中麒盛科技、尚品宅配、合兴包装、紫江企业、豪悦护理、建霖家居选用 Wind 一致预期；收盘价截至 2024 年 5 月 9 日）3 造纸：造纸：需求回暖、提价落地，盈利逐步改善需求回暖、提价落地，盈利逐步改善 3.1 大宗纸：需求改善，提价落地，盈利环比改善大宗纸：需求改善，提价落地，盈利环比改善 浆纸系：浆纸同涨，盈利修复。浆纸系：浆纸同涨，盈利修复。成本方面，海外补库、全球发运量表现稳健，2024 年 1-2 月 20 产浆国出货量同比+10.2%，芬兰罢工、Kemi 浆厂爆炸等意外扰动持续影响供给，2024H1 纸浆供需两旺，浆

33、价持续反弹，24 年 5 月 Arauco 针叶浆外盘报价 820 美元/吨（较低点+140 美元/吨）、阔叶浆外盘报价 740 美元/吨（较低点+265 美元/吨），木浆成本上探支撑纸价上行。23Q4、24Q1 针叶浆/阔叶浆内盘价分别为 6167/5425 元/吨（同比-19.0%/-19.6%，环比+7.2%/+15.7%）、6000/5306 元/吨（同比-16.5%/-11.8%，环比-2.7%/-2.2%）；需求方面，文化纸教辅教材招标旺季叠加下游渠道补库，提价逐步落实；头部纸企盈利表现分化，主要系供需格局差异及上下游调节能力不同，展望未来，Q2 需求预计保持平稳运行，成本抬升下文

34、化纸价格预计维稳、均价环比小幅上行，白卡预计低位震荡、环比保持稳定，浆纸系吨盈利预计呈现下滑态势。1）文化纸）文化纸：成本驱动，提价窄幅落地。招标：成本驱动，提价窄幅落地。招标旺季需求改善叠加成本上升驱动提价落地，浆纸同涨共驱盈利改善，23Q4、24Q1 双胶纸/铜版纸均价分别为 6114/5977 元/吨（同比-8.2%/+5.6%，环比+10.0%/+12.2%）、5788/5792 元/吨（同比-13.5%/+1.8%，环比-5.3%/-3.1%），Q1 淡季均价小幅回落。太阳纸业太阳纸业凭借原材料战略布局优势及成本管控能力，盈利表现超预期，23Q4 实现归母净利润9.49亿元（同比+7

35、5.5%、环比+7.2%）；24Q1 实现归母净利润 9.56 亿元（同比+69.0%、环比+0.7%）。岳阳林纸岳阳林纸成本改善较为滞后，23Q4 实现归母净利润-3.54 亿元，24Q1 盈利改善、实现归母净利润 0.81 亿元（同比-7.6%）。2）白卡纸：）白卡纸：供给压力仍存，价格磨底。供给压力仍存，价格磨底。受益于需求回暖，23Q4 白卡提价稳步落地、纸价超跌反弹，均价为 4897 元/吨（同比-7.6%，环比+11.8%），但行业供给压力仍存，24Q1 价格环比走弱，均价为 4762 元/吨（同比-6.7%、环比-2.8%），24Q2 价盘预计低位震荡。博汇纸业博汇纸业凭借产品结

36、构优化及成本节降，23Q4 实现实现归母利润 2.75 亿元（同比+171.4%、环比+8.4%）；24Q1 实现归母净利润 1.01 亿元（同比+120.2%、环比-63.4%）。市值市值分红率分红率股息率股息率资本开支资本开支23年净利润年净利润（亿元）（亿元）202320232023（亿元）（亿元）20232024E2025E2026E603610.SH麒盛科技46171.6%7.9%3.42.12.123.0%22.215.913.611.915.536.403.17.3603208.SH江山欧派4156.3%7.7%1.00.83.914.0%10.59.18.07.111.944.

37、051.0-3.6002969.SZ嘉美包装34143.0%7.3%3.01.51.5-22.2-2.64-5.05-3.34.1300616.SZ尚品宅配31305.1%6.5%7.01.70.6-47.816.011.0-29.912.794.3-6.6002572.SZ索菲亚17975.5%5.4%7.61.412.615.8%14.211.910.59.134.9512.541.0-12.4002014.SZ永新股份6382.6%5.4%1.10.74.114.0%15.413.411.810.411.787.681.96.8605377.SH华旺科技7863.9%4.7%3.73.4

38、5.714.2%13.812.410.79.322.9419.203.47.1603801.SH志邦家居6851.4%4.5%4.22.16.012.3%11.410.29.18.18.6310.241.7-1.2001206.SZ依依股份2844.3%4.3%0.50.91.030.6%27.016.413.912.12.707.327.17.4002228.SZ合兴包装35136.0%4.2%3.51.11.0-34.021.018.0-6.06-9.65-9.412.5603833.SH欧派家居40855.1%4.1%21.02.330.49.4%13.412.711.410.3125.

39、7525.800.8-15.11999.HK敏华控股21151.1%4.1%13.72.316.815.7%12.610.49.18.131.68-1.87-0.119.1600210.SH紫江企业9667.8%4.0%9.72.25.616.6%17.114.212.510.825.65-7.62-1.410.6603816.SH顾家家居29456.3%3.9%22.23.320.110.9%14.713.212.010.835.8316.100.8-8.6300622.SZ博士眼镜2881.7%3.7%0.20.11.317.9%22.018.715.513.41.940.290.22.5

40、605009.SH豪悦护理7067.8%3.8%2.82.34.416.7%15.913.311.410.022.9619.294.4-4.5002831.SZ裕同科技25560.3%3.5%11.71.414.415.6%17.715.113.111.534.96-12.34-0.943.8603600.SH永艺股份4044.5%3.3%3.33.03.018.4%13.612.29.88.26.643.571.23.2001323.SZ慕思股份14249.0%2.8%4.01.68.012.3%17.715.814.012.528.7631.653.9-4.0603408.SH建霖家居75

41、46.1%2.6%3.11.44.217.0%17.615.112.711.04.785.511.312.7603180.SH金牌厨柜3431.4%2.7%5.73.52.915.7%11.810.08.77.67.886.932.45.3603195.SH公牛集团111771.4%2.5%6.62.338.715.2%28.924.921.618.947.44134.713.575.3003006.SZ百亚股份9999.1%2.4%0.81.52.429.3%41.532.325.319.23.567.753.33.8603899.SH晨光股份34848.4%2.1%2.10.415.317

42、.7%22.819.316.514.052.3960.013.99.2002078.SZ太阳纸业44027.2%1.9%47.72.230.916.5%14.311.59.79.024.95-144.38-4.737.0股票代码股票代码分红分红公司名称公司名称股息率大于4%股息率大于2%+具备分红提升预期净现金净现金/23年净利润年净利润净营运资本净营运资本23-26年净年净利润利润CAGRPE账上现金账上现金净现金净现金资本开支资本开支/折折旧摊销旧摊销 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.10 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 废纸系：库存低位，成本、价格小幅下降。废纸系

43、：库存低位，成本、价格小幅下降。成本方面，23Q4 国废均价为 1575 元/吨（同比-19.9%、环比+3.2%），24Q1 均价为 1514 元（同比-9.8%、环比-3.9%）；价格方面，纸价逐步消化进口纸零关税冲击，23H2 包装纸消费旺季催化需求，产业库存低位驱动提价窄幅落地，23Q4、24Q1 箱板纸/瓦楞纸均价分别为 3843/2927 元/吨（同比-14.2%/-11.9%，环比+2.5%/+5.9%）、3833/2855 元/吨（同比-10.4%/-8.7%，环比-0.3%-2.5%）。Q1 成本、纸价淡季均呈现小幅下降态势。受益于供给增量有限，伴随需求温和回暖，行业供需关系

44、有望缓和，Q2 纸价预计延续磨底，产销量改善情况下龙头吨盈利有望小幅改善。山鹰国际山鹰国际 23Q4 实现归母利润 2.73 亿元（同比+111.8%、环比+76.2%）；24Q1 实现实现归母净利润 0.39 亿元（同比+111.4%、环比-85.7%）。图表 12：重点造纸企业收入及利润情况一览（百万元，%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 13：重点造纸企业盈利能力一览（%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1大宗纸行业大

45、宗纸行业117356.56121119.69150491.18162623.1035124.5036291.4737957.8438561.56147935.3736086.42119292.73125703.31154954.92167091.5335176.9136345.0138010.0338608.37152615.4236133.87YOY0.27%3.21%24.25%8.06%-9.91%-12.65%-9.10%-4.39%-9.03%2.74%1.20%5.37%23.27%7.83%-9.90%-12.62%-9.09%-4.38%-8.66%2.72%太阳纸业太阳纸业2

46、2762.7021588.6531996.6439766.939805.039536.989860.5210341.8139544.3410184.9323915.8622878.5632368.2840294.6310458.8210133.3610678.8010765.9140125.3223147.22YOY()4.6%-5.2%48.2%24.3%1.4%-6.4%0.8%2.1%-0.6%3.9%5.8%-4.3%41.5%24.5%8.2%-6.1%0.9%1.0%-0.4%121.3%博汇纸业博汇纸业9739.8013982.1016276.1218361.784161.534

47、495.615020.595015.3218693.064398.3410030.7214332.8516790.9418905.704767.615238.915666.944946.8519241.579061.45YOY()16.8%43.6%16.4%12.8%0.5%-4.9%0.9%11.0%1.8%5.7%17.6%42.9%17.2%12.6%15.2%-1.1%1.6%-2.2%1.8%90.1%山鹰国际山鹰国际23240.9524969.1533032.8134014.126351.507396.057564.438021.3629333.346669.1223331.48

48、25054.7733102.8834100.956476.377484.847684.576722.3129386.5324521.70YOY()-4.6%7.4%32.3%3.0%-20.2%-15.1%-13.9%-6.3%-13.8%5.0%-4.6%7.4%32.1%3.0%-18.7%-15.2%-14.3%-22.3%-13.8%278.6%晨鸣纸业晨鸣纸业30395.4330736.5233019.8132004.376155.926409.057156.896886.7126608.576761.7830395.4331787.6734402.1033310.407733.60

49、8038.118571.818205.4628052.2530360.57YOY()5.3%1.1%7.4%-3.1%-27.7%-21.5%-17.5%3.6%-16.9%9.8%5.3%4.6%8.2%-3.2%-9.2%-15.3%-14.1%3.2%-15.8%292.6%岳阳林纸岳阳林纸7105.947115.867838.059781.492522.472173.941923.532020.798640.731959.757509.197495.568262.4310172.932903.642482.762199.372276.938957.917629.86YOY()1.3%0

50、.1%10.1%24.8%51.1%-1.1%-24.8%-39.8%-11.7%-22.3%2.9%-0.2%10.2%23.1%73.9%-6.4%-31.2%-39.3%-11.9%162.8%大宗纸行业大宗纸行业6264.427880.4310349.211928.04(279.04)651.471303.46730.682406.561480.905079.867081.149512.981015.67(481.87)302.89805.02416.961043.01998.35YOY-36.02%25.80%31.33%-81.37%-116.62%-59.71%33.56%-24

51、.82%-40.16%39.40%34.34%-89.32%-130.31%-79.85%-3.48%-114.32%2.69%-307.18%太阳纸业太阳纸业2178.121953.112956.842808.77565.60685.72885.26949.103085.69956.102098.731923.232931.712771.07553.00665.14867.16941.293026.59952.37YOY()-2.7%-10.3%51.4%-5.0%-16.2%-30.3%45.5%75.5%9.9%69.0%-5.1%-8.4%52.4%-5.5%-16.0%-32.1%4

52、5.4%75.6%9.2%72.2%博汇纸业博汇纸业133.77834.071705.68228.07-497.05150.75253.38274.75181.83100.53175.78821.971712.77221.03-547.8794.76241.71332.04120.6594.75YOY()-47.7%523.5%104.5%-86.6%-375.2%-40.1%40.6%171.4%-20.3%120.2%-32.4%367.6%108.4%-87.1%-412.7%-63.6%38.2%185.3%-45.4%117.3%山鹰国际山鹰国际1362.181381.101515.

53、67-2256.45-341.2770.18154.69272.63156.2339.061258.681430.461200.10-2406.64-377.05-59.0077.4660.41-298.18-15.48YOY()-57.5%1.4%9.7%-248.9%-270.7%197.6%311.4%111.8%106.9%111.4%-53.0%13.6%-16.1%-300.5%-318.2%45.7%158.1%102.6%87.6%95.9%晨鸣纸业晨鸣纸业1656.571712.032065.51189.29-275.41-412.67-80.21-513.00-1281.2

54、958.20702.331119.101743.88-361.46-327.89-483.95-439.77-690.51-1942.12-226.48YOY()-34.0%3.3%20.6%-90.8%-341.8%-455.1%-868.7%-900.3%-776.9%121.1%-64.1%59.3%55.8%-120.7%-429.1%-756.0%-2306.7%-33.7%-437.3%30.9%岳阳林纸岳阳林纸313.24414.31298.08615.5687.4915.4213.17-354.03-237.9580.84252.48376.88210.03547.7762.8

55、3-7.519.89-55.999.22-40.71YOY()-14.4%32.3%-28.1%106.5%-29.6%-91.2%-92.4%-350.0%-138.7%-7.6%-13.5%49.3%-44.3%160.8%-44.4%-104.5%-93.7%-150.0%-98.3%-164.8%营业收入规模及增速营业收入规模及增速收入收入&合同负债规模及增速合同负债规模及增速归母净利润及增速归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1大宗纸行业大宗纸行业20.47%18.50%17.38%11

56、.63%8.98%9.99%10.29%10.83%10.83%12.98%YOY-1.79%-1.97%-1.13%-5.75%-4.39%-3.60%-2.51%-0.80%-0.80%4.00%太阳纸业太阳纸业22.54%19.44%17.37%15.17%13.51%16.13%16.74%17.12%15.89%17.99%YOY()-0.91%-3.11%-2.07%-2.21%-0.46%-2.75%2.24%3.90%0.72%4.48%博汇纸业博汇纸业14.58%17.06%22.93%11.65%-4.60%12.58%15.81%17.09%10.83%13.30%YOY

57、()-1.46%2.48%5.87%-11.28%-19.52%-6.24%1.02%19.41%-0.82%17.90%山鹰国际山鹰国际19.06%16.74%12.19%7.23%7.72%9.49%10.15%11.66%9.87%9.88%YOY()-3.99%-2.33%-4.55%-4.96%-2.98%1.61%3.01%8.21%2.64%2.16%晨鸣纸业晨鸣纸业28.36%23.07%23.61%14.47%10.52%6.57%4.38%11.34%8.13%12.37%YOY()-2.91%-5.29%0.54%-9.15%-5.67%-8.67%-7.97%-2.75

58、%-6.34%1.86%岳阳林纸岳阳林纸18.91%18.97%15.11%15.41%11.81%8.64%5.02%7.64%8.53%7.05%YOY()-1.88%0.06%-3.86%0.30%-6.89%-8.56%-10.45%-4.91%-6.88%-4.76%大宗纸行业大宗纸行业5.34%6.51%6.88%1.19%-0.79%1.80%3.43%1.89%1.63%4.10%YOY-3.03%1.17%0.37%-5.69%-5.10%-2.10%1.10%7.71%0.44%4.90%太阳纸业太阳纸业9.57%9.05%9.24%7.06%5.77%7.19%8.98%

59、9.18%7.80%9.39%YOY()-0.71%-0.52%0.19%-2.18%-1.21%-2.47%2.76%3.84%0.74%3.62%博汇纸业博汇纸业1.37%5.97%10.48%1.24%-11.94%3.35%5.05%5.48%0.97%2.29%YOY()-1.70%4.59%4.51%-9.24%-16.31%-1.97%1.43%13.99%-0.27%14.23%山鹰国际山鹰国际5.86%5.53%4.59%-6.63%-5.37%0.95%2.04%3.40%0.53%0.59%YOY()-7.29%-0.33%-0.94%-11.22%-7.88%1.77%

60、2.88%30.38%7.17%5.96%晨鸣纸业晨鸣纸业5.45%5.57%6.26%0.59%-4.47%-6.44%-1.12%-7.45%-4.82%0.86%YOY()-3.24%0.12%0.69%-5.66%-5.81%-7.86%-1.24%-6.68%-5.41%5.33%岳阳林纸岳阳林纸4.41%5.82%3.80%6.29%3.47%0.71%0.68%-17.52%-2.75%4.13%YOY()-0.81%1.41%-2.02%2.49%-3.97%-7.27%-6.13%-21.74%-9.05%0.66%毛利率毛利率归母净利率归母净利率 2024 年 05 月 1

61、1 日 P.11 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 14：各细分纸种和原料价格（元/吨）资料来源：卓创资讯，Wind，国盛证券研究所 纸浆价格持续上行背景下，纸企龙头增加部分原材料库存，太阳纸业、博汇纸业太阳纸业、博汇纸业原材料库存呈现上行态势，有望部分平滑后续成本上涨压力。针叶浆针叶浆阔叶浆阔叶浆双胶纸双胶纸铜版纸铜版纸白卡纸白卡纸国废国废瓦楞纸瓦楞纸箱板纸箱板纸白板纸白板纸2022Q805483648844849同比同比0.14%6.44%-8.68%-15.09%-27.39%0.67%1.60%4.16%-10.93%环

62、比环比22.31%23.96%6.67%2.28%1.60%-4.72%-9.26%-5.43%-4.94%2022Q27367637962345372548444589同比同比5.78%21.39%-7.49%-18.31%-30.02%5.02%1.31%4.62%-11.25%环比环比9.08%11.20%4.69%2.00%4.21%1.18%-3.43%-0.81%-5.36%2022Q373896763224107同比同比16.03%40.57%14.62%0.86%-8.70%-12.07%-11.02%-2.11

63、%-15.23%环比环比0.30%5.26%1.58%-1.83%-11.63%-9.89%-7.16%-3.00%-10.51%2022Q476659530804078同比同比37.86%45.74%20.87%5.56%-11.94%-19.18%-21.86%-13.26%-20.04%环比环比3.02%0.44%6.54%3.08%-5.88%-6.97%-3.95%-4.67%-0.69%2023Q945689542774079同比同比6.44%4.86%13.84%3.77%-16.51%-27

64、.60%-18.96%-12.42%-15.88%环比环比-5.57%-10.81%0.47%0.54%-3.67%-14.64%-5.89%-4.51%0.02%2023Q258574348753702同比同比-20.49%-32.33%-1.55%-2.91%-29.60%-32.44%-23.55%-18.55%-19.32%环比环比-18.52%-28.24%-9.46%-4.56%-12.13%-5.59%-8.90%-7.76%-9.23%2023Q35753468755605326438083523同比同比-22.

65、15%-30.20%-11.09%-2.99%-22.22%-27.76%-20.09%-20.23%-14.21%环比环比-1.79%8.58%-8.26%-1.92%-2.37%-3.65%-2.97%-5.00%-4.85%2023Q465977489733865同比同比-18.99%-19.57%-8.23%5.63%-7.61%-19.85%-11.90%-14.20%-5.24%环比环比7.20%15.74%9.97%12.23%11.80%3.22%5.91%2.54%9.70%2024Q8857924762151

66、4285538333856同比同比-16.53%-11.79%-13.53%1.81%-6.74%-9.78%-8.68%-10.39%-5.46%环比环比-2.70%-2.19%-5.33%-3.10%-2.77%-3.92%-2.45%-0.27%-0.22%浆纸系浆纸系废纸系废纸系 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.12 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 15：龙头存货梳理（亿元）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 龙头扩张放缓，行业龙头扩张放缓，行业 Capex 逐步进入下行周期。逐步进入下行周期。2023 年太阳纸业、博汇纸业、晨鸣纸业、山 鹰 国 际 资

67、本 性 开 支 分 别 为 47.74/5.41/3.14/20.15 亿 元，较 高 点 下 降34%/77%/91%/57%；资本性开支与经营性现金流比值方面，2023 年太阳纸业、博汇纸业、晨鸣纸业、山鹰国际分别为0.72/0.26/0.07/0.64，较高点下降0.75/8.08/0.19/17.95。2022-2023 年龙头逆势扩张，普遍面临一定现金流压力，产能扩张接近尾声，大宗纸企业逐步进入 Capex 下行周期。图表 16：龙头纸企资本性支出开始呈收缩迹象，逐步进入 Capex 下行周期 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所（注：玖龙纸业财年为前一年 7 月 1 日-当年 6 月

68、 30 日）23Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1存货47.7944.2337.4045.7443.41其中：原材料24.0526.02其中：在产品0.530.77其中：产成品14.1013.06存货57.4757.4054.9848.8050.19其中：原材料10.897.50其中：在产品1.361.61其中：产成品4.141.44存货34.0429.5422.4124.9632.93其中：原材料16.7316.94其中：在产品0.810.85其中：产成品12.177.29存货30.2730.0828.4028.2330.01其中：原材料16.9617.90其中：在产品0.140.21其中

69、：产成品13.0910.36存货71.1867.7855.3749.5850.34其中：原材料18.9419.77其中：在产品1.331.02其中：产成品21.6314.13太阳纸业岳阳林纸博汇纸业山鹰国际晨鸣纸业资本性开支（亿元）资本性开支（亿元）2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A太阳纸业太阳纸业30.3540.9163.0972.4947.1247.74YoY-23.73%34.80%54.19%14.91%-34.99%1.31%博汇纸业博汇纸业23.6516.123.373.0815.015.41YoY96.72%-31.86%-79.09%-8.49%386

70、.72%-63.95%晨鸣纸业晨鸣纸业36.0911.122.546.338.853.14YoY60.18%-69.18%-77.14%148.86%39.97%-64.49%山鹰国际山鹰国际16.8030.7334.7646.3637.8020.15YoY111.54%82.92%13.09%33.37%-18.46%-46.70%资本性开支资本性开支/经营性现金流经营性现金流2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A太阳纸业太阳纸业0.680.870.951.471.230.72较上年同期增减-0.380.200.080.52-0.24-0.51博汇纸业博汇纸业2.201

71、.420.090.088.340.26较上年同期增减1.27-0.79-1.32-0.018.25-8.08晨鸣纸业晨鸣纸业0.260.090.020.070.260.07较上年同期增减-94.54-0.17-0.070.050.18-0.19山鹰国际山鹰国际0.522.302.972.3518.590.64较上年同期增减0.231.790.67-0.6216.23-17.95资产负债率资产负债率2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A太阳纸业太阳纸业57.2%54.5%54.7%56.0%51.7%48.3%较上年同期增减-1.2%-2.7%0.2%1.3%-4.2%-3

72、.5%博汇纸业博汇纸业72.2%72.8%68.7%63.5%71.4%69.9%较上年同期增减9.4%0.6%-4.1%-5.2%7.9%-1.5%晨鸣纸业晨鸣纸业75.4%73.1%71.8%72.8%71.9%73.5%较上年同期增减4.1%-2.3%-1.3%1.0%-0.9%1.6%山鹰国际山鹰国际62.3%65.0%62.1%64.8%73.1%71.3%较上年同期增减1.1%2.7%-2.9%2.7%8.3%-1.8%玖龙纸业玖龙纸业FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024H1资本性开支（亿元）资本性开支（亿元）63.8758.1547

73、.9460.60126.21176.9866.03YoY74.1%-9.0%-17.6%26.4%108.3%40.2%-38.7%资本开支资本开支/经营性现金流经营性现金流0.760.670.542.414.162.56-2.63较上年同期增减-0.28-0.09-0.221.871.76-1.61-6.59资产负债率资产负债率53.4%53.1%48.6%49.7%55.6%62.6%64.9%较上年同期增减-1.1%-0.3%-4.5%1.1%6.0%7.0%5.2%2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.13 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 3.2 特种纸：成本稳定、提

74、价落地，盈利复苏特种纸：成本稳定、提价落地，盈利复苏 成本控制优异，提价落地，盈利稳步修复。成本控制优异，提价落地，盈利稳步修复。23Q4 特种纸板块实现收入 109.44 亿元（同比+7.5%），实现归母净利润 5.48 亿元（同比+66.5%）；24Q1 收入为 99.24 亿元（同比+8.8%），归母净利润为 7.47 亿元（同比+110.2%）。受益于低价浆入库，企业成本上升较为平滑，叠加 23Q3 纸企逐步提价，盈利稳步修复。目前行业仍处提价通道且整体成本可控，盈利延续修复。当前节点：价格端价格端：23Q3 纸企让利客户、价盘下降，但年末终端需求改善、外盘浆价持续报涨，23Q4 提价

75、逐步落地、24Q1 延续上升，其中装饰原纸装饰原纸由于竞争显现、价盘小幅下降；目前热转印、格拉辛等热转印、格拉辛等日用消费品类仍处提价通道，预计落地幅度优异，24Q2行业均价有望维持上行趋势。销量端：销量端：24Q1 受节假日影响、龙头产销环比下滑，但受益于 23 年新增产能稳步爬坡，其中仙鹤股份仙鹤股份（PM29&PM30、30 万吨食品卡）、五洲特纸五洲特纸（2.2 万吨热转印）、华旺科技华旺科技（8 万吨装饰原纸）新增产能贡献增量，产销同比均表现靓丽。展望未来，龙头纸企新增产能落地在即，24 年产销有望逐季增加。吨盈利吨盈利：受益于前期囤浆、提价落地，五洲特纸、仙鹤股份五洲特纸、仙鹤股份

76、盈利修复显著；华旺科华旺科技技产品结构改变&竞争显现，表现平稳；冠豪高新冠豪高新低价化机浆 Q3 入库，Q4 成本延续改善、盈利呈现持续修复趋势。展望未来，仙鹤股份、五洲特纸、冠豪高新仙鹤股份、五洲特纸、冠豪高新 Q2 均价向上、成本可控，吨盈利预计高位稳定；华旺科技华旺科技受制行业供给增加影响，价盘预计稳定，吨盈利小幅承压。图表 17：龙头均价、销量、吨盈利变化 资料来源：Wind，公司公告，国盛证券研究所（测算数据，存在误差风险）2023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1销量（万吨）18.420.630.327.924.5吨价（元/吨）9986.39377.18073.1

77、8401.99016.3吨盈利（元/吨）426.370.5362.7839.2922.7销量（万吨）6.87.28.68.17.7吨价（元/吨）10832.210343.110370.09695.510285.0吨盈利（元/吨）1592.71983.51801.11953.41773.6销量（万吨）17.6025.0232.3031.5329.00吨价（元/吨）758835952吨盈利（元/吨）(169.44)70.64368.57526.34461.46销量（万吨）17.122.124.124.421.5吨价（元/吨）8350.947252.047472.057131.

78、717074.08吨盈利（元/吨）43.90(679.34)(182.16)147.30259.74仙鹤股份华旺科技五洲特纸冠豪高新 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.14 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 18：特种纸收入&利润拆分（单位：百万元）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 19：特种纸盈利能力拆分（%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 原材料储备分化，仙鹤、华旺成本红利有望延续。原材料储备分化，仙鹤、华旺成本红利有望延续。23Q2 浆价低位、公司加大囤浆力度，存货明显提升；伴随低价浆消耗、且多数纸企龙头 24Q1 对浆价上涨谨慎观望，纸企龙头原材料

79、储备分化，其中仙鹤股份、华旺科技仙鹤股份、华旺科技加大储备力度，伴随浆价超预期上涨，预计 24Q2-24Q3 成本红利有望延续。2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1特种纸行业特种纸行业19422.9723769.2834501.6439444.589117.999737.0010821.9210944.4641125.249924.2319422.9724039.9134880.7339976.939518.2010098.7511304.1611302.3341483.

80、1210366.18YOY-0.15%22.38%45.15%14.33%0.62%-4.10%7.65%7.54%4.26%8.84%-0.15%23.77%45.10%14.61%0.58%-5.44%6.61%5.54%3.77%8.91%仙鹤股份仙鹤股份4567.044843.106016.977738.311837.471928.872446.162340.978553.482209.004630.924891.866067.097793.351972.312027.522618.572324.878669.354342.45YOY11.5%6.0%24.2%28.6%9.5%0.5

81、%27.9%5.1%10.5%20.2%10.2%5.6%24.0%28.5%17.5%0.2%28.1%1.8%11.2%120.2%五洲特纸五洲特纸2375.932634.663689.525962.081258.391582.901823.111854.916519.311726.182382.052649.213710.545990.521280.381614.721889.551767.926561.052203.73YOY10.6%10.9%40.0%61.6%-5.5%-3.6%15.6%31.4%9.3%37.2%10.6%11.2%40.1%61.4%-3.8%-4.2%17

82、.4%22.8%9.5%72.1%华旺科技华旺科技1654.021611.982940.193436.40913.97947.141122.82991.853975.79951.861686.261620.072949.413458.76933.70974.171131.30964.933988.851929.92YOY-14.1%-2.5%82.4%16.9%20.9%11.4%27.2%4.7%15.7%4.1%-12.5%-3.9%82.1%17.3%23.5%11.2%25.6%-0.5%15.3%106.7%冠豪高新冠豪高新2594.772439.757397.828085.9716

83、25.331823.261935.322019.467403.371689.922614.572451.057478.298305.311714.461878.711994.841763.027476.472646.82YOY1.7%-6.0%203.2%9.3%-5.6%-12.9%-6.7%-8.1%-8.4%4.0%1.5%-6.3%205.1%11.1%-0.4%-14.7%-8.3%-27.0%-10.0%54.4%恒达新材恒达新材583.34671.96757.74953.18198.61185.92228.79255.42868.74253.55583.61673.00759.3

84、3956.45198.61187.08229.91254.75869.93543.58YOY7.7%15.2%12.8%25.8%-8.8%-1.2%-8.9%27.7%7.5%15.3%12.8%26.0%-8.3%-2.7%-9.0%173.7%齐峰新材齐峰新材3249.822810.913701.963118.64796.10926.54990.86947.333660.82861.913282.832857.803750.913143.91838.22961.171033.38881.063679.973754.91YOY-11.7%-13.5%31.7%-15.8%-5.0%13.6

85、%23.1%43.5%17.4%8.3%-11.5%-12.9%31.3%-16.2%0.0%12.7%23.5%28.5%17.1%348.0%特种纸行业特种纸行业1055.521281.502654.322075.97355.22254.86613.10548.271771.45746.68510.21754.842263.791717.56263.12138.40529.09730.651661.26676.19YOY9.22%21.41%107.13%-21.79%-34.86%-62.54%17.69%66.51%-14.67%110.20%-11.37%47.95%199.90%-

86、24.13%-45.18%-76.04%28.89%192.77%-3.28%156.99%仙鹤股份仙鹤股份439.93717.161016.67710.29122.1358.51201.19281.96663.79268.85418.86645.74958.17556.95115.0132.82167.34279.69594.86236.89YOY50.4%63.0%41.8%-30.1%-16.3%-71.9%-5.5%96.7%-6.5%120.1%56.6%54.2%48.4%-41.9%-13.1%-81.2%7.6%196.0%6.8%106.0%五洲特纸五洲特纸199.25338

87、.56390.16205.20-29.8217.68119.05165.95272.86133.82175.69313.11353.26163.04-14.2612.7894.56158.67251.75131.65YOY20.5%69.9%15.2%-47.4%-128.9%-84.0%1053.8%983.1%33.0%548.8%29.6%78.2%12.8%-53.8%-113.9%-85.7%3492.6%602.6%54.4%1023.0%华旺科技华旺科技170.79260.00448.58467.34107.51128.44160.90169.24566.09146.84165.

88、26254.86427.05453.4096.70123.65158.72148.84527.91145.00YOY36.2%52.2%72.5%4.2%-4.4%12.1%55.3%23.8%21.1%36.6%34.7%54.2%67.6%6.2%-6.5%11.1%55.8%8.8%16.4%50.0%冠豪高新冠豪高新170.33178.55138.71387.117.94-58.26-19.0523.14-46.2442.53148.25156.500.69375.537.17-66.99-18.4310.36-67.8937.71YOY56.0%4.8%-22.3%179.1%-79

89、.2%-152.4%-118.6%-82.9%-111.9%435.8%63.3%5.6%-99.6%54453.5%-79.3%-160.5%-118.5%-92.1%-118.1%426.2%恒达新材恒达新材32.0989.79103.6297.4517.1524.9028.1517.4487.6316.6929.4087.0495.1685.40-26.7513.8777.5015.63YOY17.1%179.8%15.4%-6.0%-9.5%49.2%-10.1%-2.7%20.1%196.0%9.3%-10.3%-9.3%-齐峰新材齐峰新材132.71159.92165.248.48

90、-1.8349.79109.4579.37236.7851.18115.11130.09125.84-6.36-6.8346.17113.0565.18217.5747.69YOY127.4%20.5%3.3%-94.9%-108.9%1158.2%1002.0%1567.8%2693.6%2893.4%189.8%13.0%-3.3%-105.0%-157.4%609.7%668.3%1439.2%3523.6%797.8%扣非归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速收入收入&合同负债规模及增速合同负债规模及增速营业收入规模及增速营业收入规模及增速归母净利润及增速归母净利润及增速20192020

91、2021202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1特种纸行业特种纸行业19.23%20.36%18.33%13.35%10.61%9.62%12.09%15.21%13.23%15.49%YOY1.45%1.13%-2.03%-4.98%-4.26%-6.20%-0.29%4.73%-0.12%4.88%仙鹤股份仙鹤股份18.70%20.47%19.98%11.51%10.01%8.25%9.32%18.05%11.62%18.01%YOY1.47%1.78%-0.50%-8.47%-1.53%-5.95%-2.49%9.14%0.11%8.00%五洲特纸五洲特纸19.16%23

92、.13%17.28%8.78%3.42%6.75%10.72%15.11%9.59%12.96%YOY2.36%3.97%-5.85%-8.50%-13.02%-7.35%2.30%19.33%0.81%9.54%华旺科技华旺科技18.24%24.55%21.86%18.47%14.08%18.80%20.61%22.11%19.05%20.16%YOY3.38%6.31%-2.69%-3.38%-7.35%-1.03%4.97%4.56%0.58%6.08%冠豪高新冠豪高新25.43%23.51%18.68%14.22%10.00%2.66%6.08%7.04%6.36%14.03%YOY5

93、.14%-1.92%-4.83%-4.46%-4.54%-14.77%-8.04%-3.94%-7.85%4.03%恒达新材恒达新材20.63%26.48%24.49%18.87%16.09%22.43%23.49%12.52%18.35%12.25%YOY1.21%5.85%-1.99%-5.62%16.09%22.43%5.83%0.27%-0.53%-3.84%齐峰新材齐峰新材14.06%14.39%10.87%7.85%6.01%13.20%19.68%15.47%13.98%13.51%YOY2.77%0.33%-3.52%-3.02%-3.54%3.89%14.69%8.09%6.

94、12%7.50%特种纸行业特种纸行业13.62%14.57%9.66%7.76%6.71%7.95%6.91%5.01%4.31%7.52%YOY0.96%0.95%-4.91%-1.91%-1.70%-0.56%-0.10%1.77%-0.96%3.63%仙鹤股份仙鹤股份9.63%14.81%16.90%9.18%6.65%3.03%8.22%12.04%7.76%12.17%YOY2.50%5.18%2.09%-7.72%-2.05%-7.81%-2.91%5.61%-1.42%5.52%五洲特纸五洲特纸8.39%12.85%10.57%3.44%-2.37%1.12%6.53%8.95%

95、4.19%7.75%YOY0.69%4.46%-2.28%-7.13%-10.11%-5.62%5.88%10.28%0.74%10.12%华旺科技华旺科技10.33%16.13%15.26%13.60%11.76%13.56%14.33%17.06%14.24%15.43%YOY3.81%5.80%-0.87%-1.66%-3.11%0.09%2.60%2.63%0.64%3.66%冠豪高新冠豪高新6.56%7.32%1.88%4.79%0.49%-3.20%-0.98%1.15%-0.62%2.52%YOY2.28%0.75%-5.44%2.91%-1.73%-8.51%-5.91%-5.

96、01%-5.41%2.03%恒达新材恒达新材5.50%13.36%13.68%10.22%8.63%13.40%12.30%6.83%10.09%6.58%YOY0.44%7.86%0.31%-3.45%-2.05%2.31%-0.14%-2.05%齐峰新材齐峰新材4.08%5.69%4.46%0.27%-0.23%5.37%11.05%8.38%6.47%5.94%YOY2.50%1.61%-1.23%-4.19%-2.68%5.95%12.55%7.66%6.20%6.17%归母净利率归母净利率毛利率毛利率 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.15 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报

97、告末页声明 图表 20：原材料库存（亿元）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 日用消费类纸种供需延续平衡，日用消费类纸种供需延续平衡，食品卡食品卡竞争激烈，竞争激烈，装饰原纸矛盾装饰原纸矛盾显现。显现。1）食品卡：受益于以纸代塑&社会环保意识增强，需求增量表现突出，但龙头集中投产，2024 年供给增量较大，供需预计呈现弱平衡；2）装饰原纸：受地产疲软影响、需求压力预计逐步显现，中高端市场预计表现较优，且出口市场消化部分供给增量，但 2024 年供给增量较大（预计新增 20+万吨），预计供大于求；3）日用消费系列：热敏/热转印/格拉辛等使用场景拓宽、下游行业复苏，需求稳健增长，细分赛道供需延续平

98、衡，其中格拉辛预计供小于求。4）医疗用纸：受益于最终灭菌&以纸代塑推进，2024 年预计恢复较快增长，但由于前期投产较多&规划产能充足，整体供需弱平衡；5）烟草配套系列：由于下游行业（烟草&纸发票）变革，预计需求延续承压，新增规划亦有限，预计呈现供需弱平衡。图表 21：特种纸细分品类供需平衡表&竞争格局 资料来源：恒达新材招股书、华经产业研究院、共研网、观研天下、智研咨询、知网文化、中国家居产业、中商情报网、各公司公开投资者交流纪要、各公司公告、湛江经济开发区门户网站、马鞍山慈湖高新区公众微信号、纸视界、国盛证券研究所（供需状态为自行预测）海外合作加强，出海持续发展。海外合作加强，出海持续发展

99、。根据中国造纸协会特种纸委员会数据，2023 年我国特种纸进口量/出口量分别为 33.4/181.3 万吨，同比分别-19.1%/+9.7%，其中华旺科技、仙华旺科技、仙鹤股份鹤股份（欧洲、东南亚等区域同步拓展）等龙头把握出海机遇，凭借技术研发&优异产品，客户合作加深，持续出海抢占份额。23Q123Q223Q323Q424Q1存货26.5429.9829.2627.7731.23其中：原材料15.2515.61其中：在产品0.020.03其中：产成品14.7512.26存货7.886.757.289.799.12其中：原材料5.117.09其中：在产品0.020.02其中：产成品1.622.7

100、9存货8.689.657.145.756.05其中：原材料4.903.53其中：在产品0.000.00其中：产成品4.802.20存货14.7513.2611.1710.3413.79其中：原材料6.646.50其中：在产品0.240.40其中：产成品6.543.60存货4.244.614.754.16其中：原材料3.503.97其中：在产品0.120.11其中：产成品0.620.68仙鹤股份华旺科技五洲特纸冠豪高新恒达新材200212022E新增供给2022年竞争格局龙头纸企供需状态供需状态产量（万吨）161.2205.4236.5267.0301.7厚纸：CR232.

101、18%五洲特纸、冠豪高新弱平衡弱平衡YOY6.0%27.4%15.1%12.9%13.0%薄纸：CR244.5%仙鹤股份、恒达新材弱平衡弱平衡销量（万吨）105.5108.5111.3120.5105.7YOY8.5%2.9%2.6%3.3%-12.3%产量（万吨）30.234.238.944.352.5YOY34.8%13.2%13.7%14.0%18.3%产量（万吨）49.052.053.053.055.1YOY16.7%6.1%1.9%0.0%4.0%产量（万吨）46.744.743.142.241.4YOY-0.6%-4.3%-3.6%-2.0%-2.0%产量（万吨）19.220.42

102、1.023.025.0YOY3.2%6.4%2.8%9.5%8.7%产量（万吨）13.816.221.023.524.2YOY3.1%17.0%29.8%11.9%3.0%产量（万吨）8.88.59.010.510.5YOY-1.1%-3.4%5.9%16.7%0.0%弱平衡弱平衡供大于求供大于求供小于求供小于求弱平衡弱平衡弱平衡弱平衡弱平衡弱平衡CR3 76.5%仙鹤股份、齐峰新材、华旺科技食品包装纸厚纸：1）2021五洲50万吨食品卡持续爬坡；2）2023仙鹤30万吨食品卡；3）2024冠豪30万吨食品卡；4）金天和30万吨食品卡薄纸：1）2024年仙鹤广西&湖北项目；2）2024年恒达5

103、万吨食品医疗及深加工；3）2024-2025年华旺40万吨特种纸；4）民丰8、25号机合计技改5万吨装饰原纸2024仙鹤广西&湖北项目2024-2025华旺40万吨特种纸2025齐峰20万吨装饰原纸（首期8万吨）格拉辛纸2024仙鹤广西&湖北项目2024-2025华旺40万吨特种纸CR3 84.1%仙鹤股份、五洲特纸、UPM热敏纸2024仙鹤广西&湖北项目CR2 28.5%仙鹤股份、冠豪高新无碳纸医疗用纸2024年仙鹤广西&湖北项目2024年恒达5万吨食品医疗及深加工2024-2025年华旺40万吨特种纸民丰8、25号机合计技改5万吨（部分为医疗纸）CR2 44.1%仙鹤股份、恒达新材热转印2

104、023五洲2.2万吨热转印2024冠豪6万吨热转印2024仙鹤广西&湖北项目民丰25号机技改2.5万吨CR3 83.4%仙鹤股份、五洲特纸、冠豪高新烟草配套纸2024仙鹤广西&湖北项目民丰8号机技改2.5万吨&2.6万吨烟用镀铝内衬用纸CR3 79.8%仙鹤股份、民丰特纸、恒丰纸业 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.16 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 22：行业进出口量 图表 23：特纸公司出口占比 资料来源：特纸协会，造纸信息，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 龙头持续扩张，浆纸一体扩大竞争优势。龙头持续扩张，浆纸一体扩大竞争优势。2023 年

105、行业产量预计平稳增长，根据我们测算，2023 年 CR9 为 61.0%（同比+3.3pct），其中仙鹤、五洲、华旺市占率同比分别+1.1pct、+1.3pct、-0.3pct。龙头产品附加值提升、拓展产品品类、客户和市场边界，产能扩张领先行业，有望凭规模、产业链一体化布局等强化成本优势，行业集中度预计持续提升。仙鹤股份：仙鹤股份：广西&湖北林浆纸一体化项目 24 年逐步投产，其中广西聚焦食品医疗及日用消费、湖北聚焦装饰原纸及食品包材等系列，首期合计将投产 60 万吨造纸产能以及匹配足量纸浆产能，凭借广西桉树、湖北杨树/芦苇等丰富资源，浆&纸产能有望快速放量。五洲特纸：五洲特纸：24 年湖北一

106、期（箱板瓦楞纸）有望于 H1 末开机试产，且后续仍有特纸项目持续落地，25 年末总产能有望翻番，成长路径清晰。此外，30 万吨化机浆产能持续爬坡（主要供应食品&文化纸），60 万吨化学浆目前已至环评二次公示，浆纸一体进程加快。华旺科技：华旺科技：公司仍有 40 万吨特纸产能有待释放（含装饰原纸），预计 2024-2025 年逐步投产，且产品切入食品、医疗、工业等特种用纸。冠豪高新：冠豪高新：30 万吨食品卡 24 年 5 月已投产，6 万吨热转印仍有望于 2024 年释放增量，且公司已纳入 61.2 万吨新增化机浆产能，投产后有望顺利弱化周期影响。齐峰新材：齐峰新材：年产 20 万吨特种纸项目

107、（一期 8 万吨），预计 2024H1 建成投产。恒达新材：恒达新材：全资子公司恒川新材“5 万吨原纸产能和 1 万吨原纸深加工”项目投产后，总产能有望+50%-60%。图表 24：特纸行业市占率 资料来源：公司公告，造纸信息，国盛证券研究所（测算数据，存在误差风险）-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%020406080000222023出口量（万吨）进口量（万吨）进口量YOY出口量YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%20222023市占率（%）2002120222023E仙鹤

108、股份（合计）10.00%10.86%11.96%14.34%16.17%17.24%五洲特纸4.52%5.28%5.92%8.28%13.42%14.76%冠豪高新3.21%3.37%3.50%11.45%12.56%12.24%齐峰新材5.58%4.99%4.46%5.20%4.34%4.93%华旺科技2.17%2.05%1.98%2.83%3.45%4.32%恒丰纸业1.99%2.32%2.26%2.42%2.77%2.94%民丰特纸2.03%2.06%1.88%2.05%2.19%2.20%凯恩股份1.15%1.23%1.30%1.34%1.48%1.12%恒达新材1.01%0.94%0

109、.97%1.08%1.35%1.26%CR931.65%33.10%34.22%48.99%57.74%61.00%2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.17 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 4 家居家居：地产压力传导，家居零售化改革、智能化方兴未艾：地产压力传导，家居零售化改革、智能化方兴未艾 4.1 传统传统家居：地产压力逐步传导，经营分化加速家居：地产压力逐步传导，经营分化加速 收入收入&利润：分化显现，软体优于定制利润：分化显现，软体优于定制。消费环境持续承压、消费者选择路径变化对家居企业零售化能力提出考验，中小企业普遍面临应变能力不足、供应链实力和零售能力难以支撑转

110、型的问题，行业供给端加速劣汰；截至 2023Q4、2024M2 家居亏损企业数量占比分别为 23.2%/29.3%，分别环比-2.5pct/+6.1pct。地产压力逐步显现，竣工进入显著下行周期，渠道客流量下降明显，上下游整合和存量房市场扩张成为核心命题，欧派率先开启零售大家居探索（硬装+定制+软装），且家居龙头加速探索旧改市场。内销方面，23Q4 家居龙头表现持续分化，喜临门、志邦家居喜临门、志邦家居收入增长领先（同比+24.4%、+16.9%）；24Q1 低基数下普遍呈现增长态势，慕思股份、喜临门、索菲亚、金牌厨柜慕思股份、喜临门、索菲亚、金牌厨柜增长领先（同比+25.5%、+20.0%、

111、+17.0%、+11.4%）。其中，慕思股份慕思股份依托优势套餐、开拓家装渠道、升级卖场门店，线下持续保持靓丽表现，发力电商、增长预计高于线下；喜临门喜临门线上线下渠道延续扩张，同时代工业务恢复、跨境电商高增；索菲亚索菲亚多品牌协同发展，整家战略助力品类连带率提升，橱柜、木门均有受益；欧派家居欧派家居零售渠道改革延续、大宗严控风险，短期收入表现承压。软体家居装修节奏较为滞后且更新需求占比较高，整体表现优于定制，其中床垫龙头表现更为突出；从订单节奏来看，预计 Q2 地产压力将进一步显现，多品类协同提效或更新品类占比较高品类增长有望保持领先。外销来看，海外库存持续优化，订单延续持续改善，23Q4、

112、24Q1 顾家家居、敏华控股顾家家居、敏华控股预计外销增长均高于内销，喜临门喜临门外销表现靓丽，其中顾家家居、喜临门等布局跨境电商，预计表现更为靓丽。顾家家居顾家家居越南产能利用率提升驱动盈利显著修复，美国工厂产能爬坡对床垫收入影响预计 24H2 逐步消除。此外，欧派、志邦、索菲亚、金牌等定制龙头陆续布局海外市场。图表 25：定制家居行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1欧派家居欧派家居13533.

113、3614739.6920441.6022479.503570.336273.116721.116217.5422782.093621.3214693.2515664.3421644.6023261.795272.148052.548314.327216.5323781.084700.11YOY17.6%8.9%38.7%10.0%-13.8%13.0%2.2%0.1%1.3%1.4%14.9%6.6%38.2%7.5%27.2%8.9%-1.5%3.2%2.2%-10.8%索菲亚索菲亚7686.088352.8310407.0911222.541804.732939.053456.673465

114、.1911665.652111.118230.079146.0311391.7211924.272802.984238.824658.904771.2812971.732977.73YOY5.1%8.7%24.6%7.8%-9.7%5.6%9.6%5.4%3.9%17.0%4.9%11.1%24.6%4.7%40.3%11.9%11.0%19.6%8.8%6.2%志邦家居志邦家居2962.143840.445152.805388.78805.741494.881628.172187.676116.47820.023331.784306.035684.775824.531164.731931.5

115、12045.492661.546590.341064.96YOY21.7%29.7%34.2%4.6%6.2%17.1%9.9%16.9%13.5%1.8%18.6%29.2%32.0%2.5%53.5%13.2%6.5%15.3%13.1%-8.6%金牌厨柜金牌厨柜2125.442639.843447.773553.35574.85931.581040.751098.313645.48640.652428.242985.763863.143880.32855.911350.521322.771538.894086.06936.44YOY24.9%24.2%30.6%3.1%1.1%8.0%-

116、1.6%3.2%2.6%11.4%25.3%23.0%29.4%0.4%50.5%6.6%-5.6%10.6%5.3%9.4%江山欧派江山欧派2026.633011.513157.313208.92682.22919.291103.491032.973737.95626.492307.163199.593353.373503.66995.951218.711383.841313.764018.75866.51YOY58.0%48.6%4.8%1.6%39.0%17.9%17.1%3.7%16.5%-8.2%62.2%38.7%4.8%4.5%102.9%20.9%13.8%1.8%14.7%-

117、13.0%王力安防王力安防1950.912113.912644.912202.72394.68726.44789.061134.083044.25435.162102.572297.032835.402369.88623.53971.331067.731314.273224.44645.02YOY12.9%8.4%25.1%-16.7%11.6%13.3%32.9%84.6%38.2%10.3%10.2%9.2%23.4%-16.4%76.3%14.0%30.9%68.2%36.1%3.4%曲美家居曲美家居4279.364278.745073.264852.50967.24980.04984.

118、371096.114027.76887.274421.264360.815157.764922.921039.311077.171093.641175.284106.93974.11YOY48.0%0.0%18.6%-4.4%-26.3%-19.9%-18.9%-0.5%-17.0%-8.3%47.2%-1.4%18.3%-4.6%-20.8%-18.7%-15.1%0.2%-16.6%-6.3%尚品宅配尚品宅配7260.796513.437309.615314.34808.651261.811441.741387.634899.83776.458579.597821.868295.61593

119、6.551515.822005.502055.542031.675543.871309.78YOY9.3%-10.3%12.2%-27.3%-25.5%3.5%-0.9%-10.7%-7.8%-4.0%8.4%-8.8%6.1%-28.4%39.6%-2.8%-9.2%-6.7%-6.6%-13.6%皮阿诺皮阿诺1471.441493.621823.661451.66178.88391.95357.57387.571315.98174.221557.751641.391980.721592.68353.22544.03512.59572.281500.69337.15YOY32.5%1.5%2

120、2.1%-20.4%-24.2%15.7%-11.8%-17.7%-9.3%-2.6%31.3%5.4%20.7%-19.6%49.7%3.4%-14.3%-6.5%-5.8%-4.5%好莱客好莱客2225.152183.303370.962823.17347.76624.77654.40637.902264.83402.942357.482570.523778.052925.23496.23790.49806.81831.782458.71540.29YOY4.3%-1.9%54.4%-16.3%-43.5%-20.0%-9.8%-9.1%-19.8%15.9%5.2%9.0%47.0%-2

121、2.6%-19.3%-36.1%-7.9%3.5%-15.9%8.9%森鹰窗业森鹰窗业728.37836.53956.63886.9985.80249.76342.73261.36939.6588.57891.18958.371105.71961.83179.89331.85387.69295.60973.88128.93YOY19.2%14.9%14.4%-7.3%-17.6%19.4%-4.0%20.6%5.9%3.2%19.9%7.5%15.4%-13.0%72.7%-12.3%-13.3%1.4%1.3%-28.3%2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202

122、324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1欧派家居欧派家居1839.452062.632665.592688.43152.41980.121177.24725.903035.67217.941680.761935.192510.352592.34129.82941.641129.01545.202745.66142.84YOY17.0%12.1%29.2%0.9%-39.8%28.1%21.1%4.0%12.9%43.0%12.3%15.1%29.7%3.3%-44.4%26.0%20.2%-18.8%5.9%10.0%索菲亚索菲亚1077.43

123、1192.25122.581064.30104.34395.29452.81308.851261.28165.47970.921049.6131.67937.2489.69378.68437.73228.521134.62155.89YOY12.3%10.7%-89.7%768.3%-8.9%32.9%15.6%18.4%18.5%58.6%5.9%8.1%-97.0%2859.0%-15.6%44.5%14.4%22.8%21.1%73.8%志邦家居志邦家居329.43395.44505.52536.7251.54127.79169.98245.75595.0747.22285.24358.

124、75460.10497.5843.32121.43159.79223.60548.1438.97YOY20.7%20.0%27.8%6.2%0.5%20.0%8.2%10.8%10.9%-8.4%12.5%25.8%28.3%8.1%8.7%20.4%2.3%11.4%10.2%-10.0%金牌厨柜金牌厨柜242.50292.65337.98277.0332.7543.7089.80125.78292.0336.41197.75237.34262.94191.3313.0330.2666.12124.36233.7714.10YOY15.4%20.7%15.5%-18.0%8.2%-29.9%

125、24.8%11.8%5.4%11.2%22.3%20.0%10.8%-27.2%-2.9%9.5%20.2%30.5%22.2%8.2%江山欧派江山欧派261.29425.79256.90-298.5158.5083.41149.4798.55389.9328.79228.89393.30215.97-374.3438.3074.78139.4486.76339.2719.14YOY71.1%63.0%-39.7%-216.2%5.6%36.3%274.5%129.9%230.6%-50.8%85.7%71.8%-45.1%-273.3%362.0%57.4%247.5%125.9%190.6

126、%-50.0%王力安防王力安防211.84239.74137.52-42.9915.4133.3746.69-40.8354.6416.12195.85224.97125.75-68.5110.6532.5235.84-32.4846.536.93YOY39.9%13.2%-42.6%-131.3%325.7%678.7%93.9%25.0%227.1%4.6%47.4%14.9%-44.1%-154.5%210.5%509.3%81.7%54.0%167.9%-34.9%曲美家居曲美家居82.16103.85177.9136.96-96.12-60.41-49.37-98.28-304.18

127、-79.4368.6894.87147.61-25.60-74.16-51.73-63.71-97.33-286.93-57.59YOY239.1%26.4%71.3%-79.2%-265.3%-189.6%-242.0%20.3%-923.1%17.4%294.3%38.1%55.6%-117.3%-267.2%-220.6%-274.8%34.8%-1021.0%22.3%尚品宅配尚品宅配528.40101.4089.7046.30-95.3132.3367.0560.7864.85-86.52445.0439.9842.47-17.35-104.3822.6560.8160.0439.1

128、2-94.76YOY10.8%-80.8%-11.5%-48.4%4.9%6599.1%-5.6%-20.1%40.1%9.2%26.9%-91.0%6.2%-140.9%4.4%222.6%23.0%-1.3%325.4%9.2%皮阿诺皮阿诺175.21196.94-728.77153.61-3.8636.4929.0024.3585.98-8.20179.71187.53-732.84110.98-9.8432.5326.277.2356.20-11.81YOY23.3%12.4%-470.0%121.1%-120.7%-10.8%-44.1%-42.3%-44.0%-112.3%47.3

129、%4.3%-490.8%115.1%-160.8%32.6%-38.2%-73.9%-49.4%-20.1%好莱客好莱客364.52276.1465.31431.0612.0172.4893.6739.08217.2412.65322.07242.4838.94248.450.9657.8873.2426.12158.215.07YOY-4.6%-24.2%-76.4%560.1%-70.7%-14.0%-63.3%-22.4%-49.6%5.3%4.6%-24.7%-83.9%538.1%-97.2%-25.0%-14.4%-48.9%-36.3%426.1%森鹰窗业森鹰窗业75.86127

130、.02128.45107.95-5.6148.7477.4025.44145.97-1.7667.67118.75105.8496.50-8.2042.7274.7218.52127.75-8.84YOY26.9%67.4%1.1%-16.0%33.5%50.4%23.5%19.4%35.2%68.6%8.4%75.5%-10.9%-8.8%13.8%32.4%26.8%25.0%32.4%-7.8%营业收入规模及增速营业收入规模及增速收入收入&合同负债规模及增速合同负债规模及增速归母净利润及增速归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.1

131、8 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 26：软体家居行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 分业务：多品协同下木门延续高增，持续优化整家设计、完善品牌矩阵。分业务：多品协同下木门延续高增，持续优化整家设计、完善品牌矩阵。品类上，龙头积极推进大家居战略落地，整家竞争深化、不断加强场景化设计；品牌上，欧派家居、欧派家居、索菲亚索菲亚等定制龙头均已建立完善高中低端品牌矩阵，喜临门、顾家家居喜临门、顾家家居通过“喜眠”“乐活”等子品牌或子系列拓展中低端用户群体，同时顾家家居顾家家居在线上尝试布局中高端。细分来看：1）定制龙头：多品协同战略、木门

132、等品类快速增长。23Q4/24Q1 橱柜表现普遍承压，衣柜保持稳健增长，伴随整家战略推行，木门等协同品类快速增长，索菲亚索菲亚 2023 年木门收入+35.7%，同时不断提升橱柜、木门等品类盈利能力；志邦家居志邦家居 2023 年木门新增门店 200+家，收入同比增长 80%，规模效应逐步显现，23Q4 毛利率 25.2%（+18.3pct），驱动全年木门毛利率同比+10.6pct至21.0%；金牌厨柜金牌厨柜23Q4木门收入同比增长88.7%，驱动全年同比+65%至2.46亿元，公司横向推动品类多元化，橱衣木品类协同效应深化。此外，定制龙头积极寻求存量市场突破，聚焦旧改需求，品类延伸至门窗、

133、卫浴、墙地空间等，2021 年欧派旧厨焕新战略升级，共推出“48 小时旧厨焕新套餐”、“10 天全厨空间改造”两种模式，2023 年欧派欧派专门成立旧房改造部门，提升旧改业务战略高度。2）软体龙头：床垫品类增长较好，定制业务快速发展。2023 年床垫品类增长较好，顾顾家家居家家居聚焦门店结构转型，床垫系列门店延续扩张，且加强“乐活”等中低端系列推广，2023 年床类产品收入同比+15.4%，预计床垫内销增长高于外销；喜临门喜临门 2023 年末自主品牌专卖店数量合计达 5653 家（+380 家），天猫、京东稳中求进，重点发力抖音等新平台，核心床垫品类量价齐升，全年收入同比+23.9%至 50

134、.17 亿元，销量同比+20%、单价小个位数提升；慕思股份慕思股份 2023 年床垫收入个位数下滑主要受减少欧派供应影响，2024 欧派基数影响趋弱、床垫恢复较快增长；得益于新品迭代、SKU 标准化和供应链降本增效，23Q4/24Q1 床架、沙发等毛利率均呈现提升态势。定制业务方面，顾家家居顾家家居供应链能力深化（全年采购降本率 7%，板材综合利用率提升至 84%）、融合门店及独立门店同步扩张，家装渠道合作加强，整家定制服务能力进一步提升，定制业务收入占比逐步提升。2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q22

135、3Q323Q4202324Q1顾家家居顾家家居11093.5912665.9918341.9518010.453953.544924.395257.885076.2319212.034350.4512585.7514700.0020739.4019541.665373.416385.756578.406679.7420815.545625.21YOY20.9%14.2%44.8%-1.8%-12.9%10.0%10.8%19.5%6.7%10.0%23.6%16.8%41.1%-5.8%18.4%6.1%7.8%15.6%6.5%4.7%喜临门喜临门4871.405623.297771.847

136、838.731467.422337.422264.312609.208678.351761.135010.815832.427972.228207.471695.002615.112486.092855.558924.701955.10YOY15.7%15.4%38.2%0.9%4.5%6.2%6.0%24.4%10.7%20.0%14.1%16.4%36.7%3.0%20.7%9.5%4.1%15.8%8.7%15.3%慕思股份慕思股份3862.094452.426481.045812.68957.201442.191406.091773.075578.551201.254092.72474

137、1.016733.005930.131124.201634.791570.141961.915767.391355.16YOY21.2%15.3%45.6%-10.3%-23.1%-4.3%0.3%6.9%-4.0%25.5%20.5%15.8%42.0%-11.9%-9.7%-3.5%0.0%10.4%-2.7%20.5%顾家家居顾家家居1161.16845.471664.451812.05400.10523.41577.58504.872005.96420.19848.84590.661426.771544.07340.49497.05527.23416.221780.99375.54YO

138、Y17.4%-27.2%96.9%8.9%-9.7%16.9%12.7%23.5%10.7%5.0%3.7%-30.4%141.6%8.2%-10.9%24.7%5.4%58.3%15.3%10.3%喜临门喜临门380.41313.40558.75237.5561.63160.63168.0138.60428.8774.08264.79313.39495.73204.5050.00162.04168.44-3.83376.6474.30YOY186.8%-17.6%78.3%-57.5%14.3%-3.1%-0.8%125.5%80.5%20.2%156.5%18.4%58.2%-58.7%1

139、.7%3.2%5.9%97.6%84.2%48.6%慕思股份慕思股份333.00536.34686.44708.92101.27254.47162.62283.91802.27141.25425.49575.96677.23650.2097.71248.19155.88281.67783.45133.31YOY53.9%61.1%28.0%3.3%-18.4%39.1%37.5%0.1%13.2%39.5%75.4%35.4%17.6%-4.0%-21.0%34.8%47.0%19.2%20.5%36.4%营业收入规模及增速营业收入规模及增速归母净利润及增速归母净利润及增速收入收入&合同负债规

140、模及增速合同负债规模及增速扣非归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.19 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 27：定制家居公司分品类收入及毛利率（亿元）资料来源：Wind，各公司 2019-24Q1 经营数据公告，索菲亚 2019-2023 定期报告，国盛证券研究所 图表 28：软体家居公司分品类收入及毛利率（亿元；%）资料来源：Wind，各公司 2019 年度-2023 年度定期报告，国盛证券研究所 2019A2020A21Q121Q221Q321Q42021A22Q122Q222Q322Q42022A23Q123Q223H123Q

141、323Q42023A24Q1欧派家居收入欧派家居收入61.9360.6112.5919.4521.9021.3475.2913.2419.421.8317.2371.7310.8519.8730.7220.9218.6670.3110.68YOY7.4%-2.1%96.2%25.9%12.7%10.5%24.2%5.1%-0.1%-0.4%-19.3%-4.7%-18.0%2.2%-6.0%-4.1%8.3%-2.0%-1.6%毛利率36.6%36.2%31.7%34.4%33.6%36.7%34.4%30.5%31.6%36.8%36.0%34.0%29.3%30.8%30.3%39.2%3

142、5.5%34.3%25.5%索菲亚收入索菲亚收入8.5112.1114.2012.724.8112.44-YOY20.1%42.3%17.3%-10.4%-10.7%-2.2%-毛利率28.5%22.7%26.3%25.2%22.2%24.8%-志邦家居收入志邦家居收入21.1724.993.607.277.8410.6429.343.656.527.359.8527.373.186.8510.047.4910.8528.383.16YOY9.8%18.0%78.1%19.2%11.2%8.3%17.4%1.3%-10.4%-6.2%-7.4%-6.7%-12.8%5.2%-1.3%1.9%1

143、0.2%3.7%-0.7%毛利率42.4%41.8%41.6%41.9%37.0%41.7%40.5%43.0%40.2%40.1%42.2%41.3%46.5%35.9%39.2%49.4%36.6%40.9%41.5%金牌厨柜收入金牌厨柜收入17.8220.733.546.506.428.3424.803.825.996.827.0023.633.625.859.476.246.6122.323.89YOY16.0%16.4%69.4%46.1%4.0%4.0%19.6%7.9%-7.9%6.2%-16.0%-4.7%-5.2%-2.3%-3.5%-8.5%-5.6%-5.6%7.6%毛利

144、率36.5%32.9%27.6%27.3%31.6%32.8%30.3%29.4%28.5%28.1%30.9%29.2%28.3%29.3%28.9%29.1%29.7%29.2%26.0%欧派家居收入欧派家居收入51.6757.7213.5217.5326.3144.35101.7223.2028.9834.9234.29121.3919.7634.5454.3034.4330.77119.4919.06YOY24.6%11.7%173.5%27.6%35.4%126.2%49.5%40.9%65.3%32.7%-22.7%19.3%-14.8%19.2%4.1%-1.4%-10.3%-1

145、.6%-3.5%毛利率39.9%40.0%33.4%41.8%39.8%23.5%32.2%28.6%35.9%31.0%31.3%31.8%27.7%11.1%33.6%37.6%40.4%36.5%35.6%索菲亚收入索菲亚收入66.0567.0282.6991.7738.7694.11-YOY3.3%1.5%23.4%11.0%-1.0%2.5%-毛利率38.9%40.4%35.7%34.3%36.5%37.8%-志邦家居收入志邦家居收入7.311.42.84.05.15.717.63.35.046.076.6121.033.536.339.866.898.3025.053.84YOY7

146、0.8%55.3%179.4%65.4%33.5%37.1%54.3%19.7%24.5%20.0%15.4%19.5%6.8%25.7%18.2%13.5%25.5%19.1%8.8%毛利率31.6%33.4%33.3%33.1%38.1%32.6%34.4%34.0%36.3%39.3%41.8%38.5%35.6%41.0%39.0%38.4%36.4%38.0%41.1%金牌厨柜收入金牌厨柜收入3.054.991.151.612.033.218.001.522.132.953.029.611.592.624.213.133.1110.441.90YOY121.4%63.5%149.6%

147、47.9%35.5%65.3%60.3%32.1%31.9%45.2%-6.0%20.1%4.6%23.2%15.5%6.1%2.9%8.6%19.9%毛利率26.8%29.7%27.2%26.3%29.5%30.4%28.9%28.9%26.6%26.7%33.5%29.2%27.9%27.8%27.8%31.5%30.5%29.7%28.2%欧派家居收入欧派家居收入5.977.711.652.923.813.9912.362.183.224.004.0613.462.073.695.764.203.8313.782.17YOY25.9%29.0%155.3%71.7%51.7%39.8%6

148、0.4%32.3%10.2%5.2%1.7%8.9%-4.9%14.5%6.7%4.8%-5.7%2.4%5.0%毛利率12.4%14.0%11.5%13.6%17.7%11.2%13.8%10.1%28.2%21.8%5.1%16.4%7.8%28.4%21.0%24.4%18.9%21.5%15.0%索菲亚收入索菲亚收入1.882.924.584.342.235.89-YOY18.8%55.4%56.9%-5.3%21.7%35.7%-毛利率15.9%14.6%17.1%24.0%25.2%29.8%-志邦家居收入志邦家居收入0.280.430.080.220.470.931.700.22

149、0.520.501.042.280.400.901.301.091.714.100.45YOY254.9%57.0%115.7%175.9%306.8%355.2%291.5%183.1%133.6%6.2%11.9%34.2%79.5%74.5%76.0%118.6%64.2%79.9%11.6%毛利率-3.6%16.0%18.3%16.1%8.0%14.4%13.0%8.0%11.9%17.1%6.9%10.4%6.7%22.9%17.9%18.0%25.2%21.0%14.4%金牌厨柜收入金牌厨柜收入0.080.250.080.130.300.330.840.170.340.510.47

150、1.490.300.600.890.680.882.460.25YOY2078.7%222.6%473.8%180.5%273.8%214.6%242.2%107.9%163.5%71.7%41.4%77.3%79.3%75.2%76.5%31.9%88.7%65.0%-14.9%毛利率10.6%0.3%0.5%4.4%3.7%6.0%4.4%5.2%5.8%5.9%10.3%7.2%5.6%3.1%3.9%5.6%11.8%7.2%7.3%4.0%26.4%55.345.2%38.6%3.6646.0%32.5%6.9%-12.5%21.7%16.2%17.7%16.6%93.8%40.4%

151、29.3%25.2%1.722.861.832.502.23木门木门13.2%9.4%-1.0%38.0%34.1%34.0%57.6%6.7%34.6%36.5%34.5948.1039.1652.6138.76衣柜衣柜-4.1%-14.5%-10.7%24.4%27.5%21.9%121.1%-10.3%27.6%22.2%5.628.585.397.334.81橱柜橱柜7.622019H12019H22019A2020H12020H22020A2021H12021H22021A2022H12022H22022A2023H12023H22023A顾家家居顾家家居7.2712.2619.53

152、9.0314.3523.3813.9219.4533.3817.2318.3435.5719.1621.8841.04YOY38.0%102.5%72.5%24.2%17.1%19.7%54.2%35.5%42.8%23.8%-5.7%6.6%11.2%19.3%15.4%毛利率42.6%30.6%35.1%35.0%36.0%35.6%34.3%32.5%33.2%34.4%35.9%35.2%35.3%38.7%37.1%喜临门喜临门37.6842.7863.8130.8636.5167.37-76.78YOY13.2%13.5%49.1%20.8%-4.6%5.6%-14.0%毛利率37

153、.1%35.7%34.1%33.7%-35.6%慕思股份慕思股份35.0340.0024.3730.7955.1722.7725.1247.8920.0125.7545.76YOY22.5%14.2%-37.9%-6.6%-18.4%-13.2%-12.1%2.5%-4.4%毛利率55.1%52.0%49.6%49.6%49.6%50.1%-喜临门喜临门27.3228.5539.6119.5020.9840.48-50.17YOY4.5%4.5%38.7%29.3%-14.3%2.2%-23.9%毛利率36.6%35.2%36.2%-36.8%-38.3%慕思股份慕思股份22.5123.961

154、4.2517.9432.1912.8714.4127.2811.4614.3525.81YOY22.6%6.4%-34.3%-9.7%-19.7%-15.2%-11.0%-0.4%-5.4%毛利率61.2%59.3%57.5%57.0%57.2%57.7%60.0%58.9%62.6%62.1%62.3%喜临门喜临门10.3614.2324.2011.3615.5426.90-26.61YOY45.0%37.3%70.0%9.0%12.8%11.2%-1.1%毛利率38.6%36.7%30.8%-29.0%-30.5%慕思股份慕思股份12.5216.0410.1212.8622.989.901

155、0.7120.618.5511.3919.95YOY22.2%28.1%-43.3%-2.2%-16.7%-10.3%-13.6%6.4%-3.2%毛利率44.2%41.1%38.6%39.2%38.9%40.2%-顾家家居顾家家居28.2430.0758.3124.1539.9864.1341.1751.5092.6847.0942.6389.7243.2650.2493.50YOY31.7%0.2%13.3%-14.5%33.0%10.0%70.5%28.8%44.5%14.4%-17.2%-3.2%-8.1%17.8%4.2%毛利率56.4%49.4%52.6%49.7%51.2%50.

156、6%51.4%49.9%50.5%52.2%47.4%49.8%33.7%37.6%35.8%喜临门喜临门6.197.1810.544.894.139.02-7.70YOY6.4%15.9%46.9%9.0%-31.8%-14.5%-14.6%毛利率26.6%28.4%21.9%-25.3%-25.6%慕思股份慕思股份3.592.144.501.862.474.34YOY-25.4%-13.1%-3.6%顾家家居顾家家居1.382.053.431.353.214.562.943.676.603.544.077.623.934.878.80YOY67.6%58.0%61.7%-2.2%56.5%

157、32.9%118.3%14.0%44.8%20.7%11.1%15.3%11.0%19.6%15.6%毛利率30.7%39.2%35.8%34.1%36.5%35.8%32.2%32.6%32.4%32.9%33.2%33.1%28.3%26.9%27.5%定制定制床类产品床类产品床垫床垫软床及配套软床及配套沙发沙发 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.20 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 分渠道分渠道：零售增长压力显现，零售增长压力显现，工程渠道增长工程渠道增长分化分化。1）零售：增长压力显现。23 年、24Q1商品住宅销售面积累计同比-8.2%、-23.4%，商品住宅竣

158、工面积累计同比+17.2%、-21.9%；新房销售持续低迷，竣工压力逐步传导，24Q1 欧派家居、志邦家居、金牌厨柜、江山欧派零售渠道收入分别同比-2.7%、+0.6%、-7.9%、-23.7%，志邦家居志邦家居零售表现相对优异主要系渠道扩张延续、整家战略驱动多品类增长。此外，家居零售化转型加速，顾家家居顾家家居仓配服成效显著（2023 年累计建仓覆盖率超 30%，覆盖仓储面积超 10 万平方米，嘉好仓零售周转加速 5 天，整体存货周转缩短 14 天、提升 19%）。2）工程：客户结构优化、竞争加剧。家居龙头不断提高风险控制，客户结构持续改善，逐步形成国央企为主的客户结构，同时逐步加强与非地产

159、客户合作，开拓酒店、学校、医院等增量业务，客户结构优化，但竞争持续加剧，24Q1 欧派家居、志邦家居、金牌厨柜欧派家居、志邦家居、金牌厨柜大宗渠道低基数下保持较快增长，分别同比+18.8%、+9.7%、+24.7%；江山欧派受基数影响，同时保交楼交付下降，24Q1 同比-5.6%。图表 29：定制家居公司收入-分渠道（亿元）资料来源：Wind，各公司 2019-24Q1 经营数据公告，索菲亚 2019-2023 定期报告，国盛证券研究所 门店方面：渠道结构优化，顾家、志邦、金牌等延续门店扩张态势。门店方面：渠道结构优化，顾家、志邦、金牌等延续门店扩张态势。2023 年末欧派家居欧派家居门店数较

160、年初净增 40 家至 8716 家（口径调整），以调整后口径（2022 年门店数调整为8676 家）计算单店收入 211 万元、同比基本持平，公司持续推动渠道改革，零售大家居和整装大家居齐头并进，优化终端单店结构、伴随店态模型及经销商磨合逐步成熟，预计零售大家居门店占比进一步提高；索菲亚索菲亚多品牌协同发展，整家战略 3.0 全面升级，客单值持续提升同时加速开拓橱柜、卫浴、门窗和墙地市场，2023 年索菲亚品牌客单价达 19619 元（同比+6.3%），米兰纳门店快速增长，2023 年末门店总数较年初-333 家至3767 家（主要系司米品牌门店显著减少），但单店收入同比提升 14%。顾家家居

161、顾家家居/志邦志邦家居家居/金牌厨柜金牌厨柜等门店延续扩张，2023 年净开店数分别为 203/352/180 家，顾家家居顾家家居持续扩张融合大店及整装渠道，门店经营面积稳健增长，其中定制开店及收入保持较高增长，整装顾家星选 2.0 稳步推进，单店收入同比+3%；志邦家居志邦家居推动持续强化南方市场部署和空白区域下沉，同时强化门店整家战略落地、单店收入同比+0.7%；金牌厨柜金牌厨柜开启一城多商、分商圈招商，依托平台办事处开拓分销渠道。2019A2020A21Q121Q221Q321Q42021A22Q122Q222Q322Q42022A23Q123Q223H123Q323Q42023A24

162、Q1欧派家居欧派家居109.0115.824.839.450.548.0162.733.547.353.448.8182.928.552.080.452.850.8184.027.7YOY6.2%174.9%39.7%28.8%21.7%40.4%34.7%20.1%5.8%1.6%12.4%-15.0%10.0%-0.4%-1.1%4.2%0.6%-2.7%毛利率36.0%35.2%29.9%34.9%33.2%27.9%31.5%27.8%34.5%33.8%29.3%31.7%27.6%34.5%32.1%39.4%35.1%35.0%33.0%索菲亚索菲亚67.168.113.921.

163、625.725.887.016.623.527.327.695.015.024.839.899.4-YOY1.5%22.2%4.4%27.8%19.6%8.8%5.9%7.2%9.2%-9.7%5.5%-0.8%4.6%-志邦家居志邦家居21.024.65.17.59.29.831.55.78.49.89.033.05.59.515.09.811.235.95.5YOY17.2%140.5%25.9%12.1%16.8%28.0%13.2%11.5%7.0%-7.4%4.6%-3.9%13.5%6.4%-0.6%23.7%9.0%0.6%毛利率39.4%38.4%37.3%38.3%36.4%

164、38.1%37.5%37.6%37.8%41.3%37.6%38.8%41.0%40.1%40.5%42.3%35.3%39.4%41.7%金牌厨柜金牌厨柜15.316.03.04.75.47.720.73.34.625.576.119.63.25.08.15.85.819.82.9YOY4.2%99.7%27.3%9.8%29.0%29.4%9.7%-0.6%3.2%-20.1%-5.3%-4.3%8.0%2.9%4.1%-4.6%0.9%-7.9%毛利率40.1%39.0%34.3%35.7%38.4%41.3%38.3%37.5%36.3%35.5%42.4%38.2%36.5%34.9

165、%35.5%39.2%34.1%36.2%36.2%江山欧派江山欧派2.22.50.71.61.92.76.91.32.32.62.78.81.72.74.42.92.59.81.3YOY-26.2%13.0%270.6%211.2%112.7%210.1%180.5%74.3%42.0%36.9%-2.9%26.4%32.6%19.6%24.2%13.3%-5.6%11.9%-23.7%毛利率17.6%24.2%20.5%16.8%19.8%26.5%21.8%17.2%21.3%21.8%24.4%21.8%19.2%24.1%23.5%67.6%24.2%19.3%欧派家居欧派家居21.

166、626.87.28.610.510.436.76.77.010.610.634.95.98.914.812.09.135.97.0YOY52.5%24.1%89.7%30.5%33.1%21.9%36.9%-7.0%-19.5%1.4%2.5%-4.8%-13.0%28.6%8.1%12.9%-14.7%2.6%18.8%毛利率34.6%32.7%30.2%30.4%30.6%31.8%30.8%27.1%29.2%27.3%28.0%27.9%20.0%33.3%28.0%26.3%20.8%25.6%15.9%索菲亚索菲亚9.415.13.63.73.65.116.03.33.63.74.

167、715.33.03.46.414.5-YOY60.9%60.7%-14.2%-34.2%6.2%-9.3%-0.2%0.7%-9.2%-4.9%-10.0%-6.1%-7.9%-4.9%-志邦家居志邦家居6.411.71.33.94.17.216.51.33.53.88.016.61.34.35.65.39.120.11.5YOY63.7%83.7%52.7%55.8%53.6%26.2%40.6%-1.5%-11.7%-5.9%10.8%0.4%4.5%23.2%18.2%40.1%14.0%21.2%9.7%毛利率42.0%41.5%42.1%39.8%38.0%37.4%38.5%40.

168、9%38.0%35.3%44.1%40.5%32.6%33.5%33.3%43.8%34.2%36.5%36.5%金牌厨柜金牌厨柜5.08.91.43.23.03.911.41.83.14.23.712.81.93.35.23.54.012.82.3YOY149.3%76.8%68.5%99.2%14.2%0.4%28.2%27.9%-2.8%42.5%-5.5%11.8%5.3%8.9%7.6%-16.7%8.2%-0.3%24.7%毛利率20.0%18.5%11.8%14.6%14.2%12.2%13.3%12.1%14.5%15.1%15.3%14.6%9.7%15.8%13.6%12.

169、3%20.4%15.4%11.5%江山欧派江山欧派16.826.13.67.06.35.322.23.24.96.37.521.84.86.110.87.67.125.54.5YOY78.2%54.8%38.3%5.1%-24.1%-37.7%-14.9%-11.2%-30.0%-0.3%40.3%-1.7%49.6%23.6%33.9%20.8%-4.5%17.0%-5.6%毛利率34.2%33.6%30.9%33.5%37.4%25.6%32.3%28.2%29.3%29.3%12.7%23.5%20.7%24.1%22.6%23.8%28.8%24.7%14.8%大宗渠道大宗渠道零售渠道

170、零售渠道59.658.8%8.6%8.1135.2%-2.3%2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.21 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 30：定制家居公司零售单店收入对比 图表 31：软体家居公司零售单店收入对比 资料来源：Wind，各公司 2017-2023 经营数据公告，国盛证券研究所 注：金牌门店数未包含阳台卫浴和玛尼欧门店；欧派门店口径调整，括号内为按照调整后口径计算的值 资料来源：Wind，各公司 2017-2023 经营数据公告，国盛证券研究所 盈利能力：盈利能力：原料价格走低叠加降本增效效果显现，盈利稳中有进。原料价格走低叠加降本增效效果显现，盈利稳中有

171、进。原材料方面，24Q1 布和乳胶价格同环比均有小幅回升，软泡聚醚 24Q1 价格延续下降，皮革价格同比仍处低位。此外，龙头重视降本增效，持续提升营运效率，定制家居龙头推进齐套交付模式，板材利用率稳步提升，23Q4 欧派家居、索菲亚欧派家居、索菲亚毛利率分别+4.11pct/+4.07pct 至34.60%/37.42%；软体家居中喜临门喜临门床垫占比提升叠加优化供应链共同驱动毛利率增长、慕思股份慕思股份兼缩减低效 SKU 且加强成本控制，23Q4 毛利率分别同比+5.15pct/+2.73pct 至34.71%/49.22%，24Q1 毛利率同比+1.06pct/+1.76pct 至 33.

172、46%/50.15%。图表 32：定制家居行业主要公司盈利能力（%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 20020202120222023零售收入（百万元）8298955362671828818403门店数5908670870627(8676)8716单店收入（万元）140.5142.4154.4162.9217.6240.2(210.8)211.1YOY1.4%8.4%5.5%33.6%10.4%-12.1%(+0.1%)零售收入（百万元）58436686675029942门店数3035355837365

173、040486341003767单店收入（万元）192.52187.91179.60135.15178.96231.75263.93YOY-2.4%-4.4%-24.7%32.4%29.5%13.9%零售收入（百万元）963595门店数73232374242314583单店收入（万元）93.4878.7675.4076.1784.2377.9178.43YOY-15.7%-4.3%1.0%10.6%-7.5%0.7%零售收入（百万元）501977门店数4249331

174、3037293909单店收入（万元）99.3680.7871.5864.1866.1552.5750.58YOY-18.7%-11.4%-10.3%3.1%-20.5%-3.8%欧派家居欧派家居索菲亚索菲亚志邦家居志邦家居金牌厨柜金牌厨柜20020202120222023内销收入（百万元）4036.495209.846096.877649.1310712.4610303.5010935.31门店数49356076648666946单店收入（万元）81.885.794.0114.3165.9152.8157.4YOY4.8%9.6%21.6%45.1%

175、-7.9%3.0%自主品牌零售（百万元）1349.051903.832328.633084.705054.395091.675489.21门店数82340389947025163单店收入（万元）88.9394.25107.41131.82129.63108.29106.32YOY6.0%14.0%22.7%-1.7%-16.5%-1.8%内销收入（百万元）-6377.505706.595482.03门店数-490056005700单店收入（万元）-130.15101.9096.18YOY-21.7%-5.6%顾家家居顾家家居喜临门喜临门慕思股份慕思股份2019202020

176、21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1欧派家居欧派家居35.84%35.01%31.62%31.61%26.68%34.27%37.62%34.60%34.16%29.98%26.16%27.23%24.84%24.14%16.93%25.77%29.43%25.75%25.46%18.39%YOY()-2.54%-0.82%-3.39%-0.01%-0.98%0.26%4.49%4.11%2.55%3.30%-1.99%1.08%-2.39%-0.70%-1.60%-0.33%3.88%1.

177、11%1.32%1.46%索菲亚索菲亚37.33%36.56%33.21%32.99%33.25%35.74%36.76%37.42%36.15%32.62%27.37%27.39%23.51%23.05%21.98%26.29%27.34%28.19%26.50%22.48%YOY()-0.25%-0.77%-3.35%-0.22%1.93%3.31%2.58%4.07%3.16%-0.63%-0.62%0.02%-3.88%-0.46%2.83%3.55%1.70%4.98%3.44%0.50%志邦家居志邦家居38.53%38.07%36.24%37.69%36.89%36.75%40.6

178、9%34.65%37.07%37.22%22.91%23.14%21.58%22.25%19.34%23.08%25.94%20.76%22.52%18.43%YOY()2.58%-0.46%-1.83%1.44%1.81%-0.20%3.23%-4.77%-0.62%0.33%0.68%0.22%-1.56%0.67%0.60%2.86%2.78%-3.59%0.27%-0.91%金牌厨柜金牌厨柜35.84%32.73%30.48%29.46%29.11%27.77%29.80%31.16%29.58%28.01%19.93%20.95%18.72%17.32%14.57%15.13%17.

179、69%21.04%17.55%14.71%YOY()-3.15%-3.12%-2.24%-1.02%-0.81%-0.53%1.94%-0.58%0.12%-1.11%-0.63%1.01%-2.23%-1.40%-0.69%-0.65%2.22%-0.47%0.23%0.14%江山欧派江山欧派32.22%32.20%29.10%23.85%21.67%24.86%26.76%29.12%26.02%18.76%23.61%26.31%20.75%14.48%14.49%16.65%21.29%20.00%18.55%10.59%YOY()-0.51%-0.01%-3.11%-5.24%-3.

180、24%-6.19%3.38%10.97%2.16%-2.91%0.76%2.69%-5.56%-6.27%1.89%-0.39%4.00%9.26%4.07%-3.90%王力安防王力安防29.21%31.84%24.45%24.46%27.32%26.15%27.91%26.13%26.75%23.09%18.26%21.01%13.48%13.28%15.03%15.16%14.60%15.79%15.23%10.33%YOY()0.75%2.63%-7.39%0.01%4.37%5.36%2.15%-1.79%2.29%-4.23%1.54%2.74%-7.53%-0.21%5.67%5.

181、94%0.18%-2.87%1.96%-4.70%曲美家居曲美家居43.59%43.41%35.83%32.29%30.18%31.26%32.87%32.89%31.84%30.97%18.82%20.32%18.55%14.82%8.76%11.60%12.81%14.46%11.99%10.55%YOY()1.18%-0.18%-7.58%-3.53%-5.40%-1.53%-1.43%7.28%-0.46%0.79%0.71%1.50%-1.77%-3.72%-10.76%-4.67%-3.58%8.56%-2.83%1.79%尚品宅配尚品宅配41.57%33.23%33.17%34.

182、62%30.98%36.11%35.22%36.03%34.98%27.81%14.41%8.96%9.04%10.97%0.31%14.11%16.48%15.49%12.92%1.45%YOY()-2.11%-8.33%-0.07%1.45%-0.66%1.70%-1.49%1.13%0.36%-3.17%0.22%-5.45%0.08%1.93%-0.54%2.67%2.08%1.04%1.95%1.14%皮阿诺皮阿诺35.78%34.08%33.96%30.02%24.43%29.12%31.24%30.61%29.50%21.77%21.62%25.50%24.04%19.35%9.

183、33%19.35%20.39%21.58%18.93%6.81%YOY()-0.16%-1.70%-0.12%-3.94%-5.33%-0.93%2.32%-0.46%-0.52%-2.65%-0.60%3.88%-1.45%-4.69%-8.69%1.73%1.87%-0.39%-0.42%-2.52%好莱客好莱客40.06%36.70%33.94%35.15%35.53%36.05%37.37%31.47%35.06%33.18%26.54%25.80%24.47%25.05%18.75%24.19%25.66%18.49%22.17%17.87%YOY()0.50%-3.37%-2.76

184、%1.22%-0.24%-0.48%1.84%-1.21%-0.09%-2.36%1.72%-0.74%-1.33%0.57%-6.17%-1.86%-0.53%-4.38%-2.87%-0.88%森鹰窗业森鹰窗业38.19%38.61%29.65%33.34%26.32%34.25%40.06%36.19%36.19%16.04%24.65%29.70%20.47%27.42%13.24%28.91%36.21%26.69%29.53%1.26%YOY()2.50%0.42%-8.96%3.69%-1.02%2.95%4.47%1.70%2.84%-10.28%-0.01%5.05%-9.2

185、3%6.95%-2.89%2.98%4.70%-0.84%2.11%-11.98%2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1欧派家居欧派家居13.59%13.99%13.04%11.96%4.27%15.62%17.52%11.67%13.32%6.02%19.24%17.30%18.50%16.29%0.92%5.96%6.96%4.08%16.76%1.20%YOY()-0.07%0.40%-0.95%-1.08%-1.84%1.84%2.73%0.44%1.37%1.75

186、%-1.55%-1.95%1.20%-2.21%-0.82%0.71%0.52%-0.25%0.47%0.27%索菲亚索菲亚14.02%14.27%1.18%9.48%5.78%13.45%13.10%8.91%10.81%7.84%19.79%19.47%2.17%18.41%1.79%6.86%7.71%4.71%17.98%2.35%YOY()0.90%0.26%-13.10%8.31%0.05%2.76%0.68%0.98%1.33%2.06%-0.06%-0.32%-17.30%16.23%-0.22%1.57%0.83%0.24%-0.43%0.56%志邦家居志邦家居11.12%1

187、0.30%9.81%9.96%6.40%8.55%10.44%11.23%9.73%5.76%17.08%17.75%19.51%18.65%1.77%4.42%5.78%7.78%18.10%1.42%YOY()-0.10%-0.82%-0.49%0.15%-0.36%0.21%-0.17%-0.62%-0.23%-0.64%2.50%0.67%1.76%-0.87%-0.22%0.19%-0.37%-0.26%-0.55%-0.35%金牌厨柜金牌厨柜11.41%11.09%9.80%7.80%5.70%4.69%8.63%11.45%8.01%5.68%20.03%16.03%14.02%

188、10.68%1.25%1.67%3.39%4.62%10.55%1.31%YOY()-0.94%-0.32%-1.28%-2.01%0.37%-2.53%1.83%0.88%0.21%-0.01%-1.36%-4.00%-2.01%-3.34%0.01%-0.92%0.41%0.17%-0.13%0.06%江山欧派江山欧派12.89%14.14%8.14%-9.30%8.58%9.07%13.54%9.54%10.43%4.60%19.91%25.83%13.95%-21.10%4.05%6.04%10.98%6.64%25.42%1.86%YOY()0.99%1.25%-6.00%-17.4

189、4%-2.71%1.22%22.63%42.62%19.73%-3.98%6.00%5.92%-11.88%-35.05%1.09%2.87%15.61%27.49%46.52%-2.19%王力安防王力安防10.86%11.34%5.20%-1.95%3.90%4.59%5.92%-3.60%1.79%3.70%24.62%21.79%7.96%-2.60%0.93%2.03%2.85%-2.48%3.37%0.99%YOY()2.09%0.48%-6.14%-7.15%5.83%5.49%1.86%5.27%3.75%-0.20%6.42%-2.83%-13.83%-10.56%1.32%2

190、.37%1.43%0.75%5.96%0.06%曲美家居曲美家居1.92%2.43%3.51%0.76%-9.94%-6.16%-5.02%-8.97%-7.55%-8.95%5.47%4.81%8.82%1.68%-4.56%-2.99%-2.49%-5.11%-16.00%-3.83%YOY()3.96%0.51%1.08%-2.75%-14.37%-11.67%-7.88%2.23%-8.31%0.99%9.85%-0.67%4.01%-7.13%-7.37%-6.19%-4.13%0.58%-17.69%0.73%尚品宅配尚品宅配7.28%1.56%1.23%0.87%-11.79%2

191、.56%4.65%4.38%1.32%-11.14%15.02%2.89%2.51%1.29%-2.70%0.93%1.90%1.70%1.79%-2.31%YOY()0.10%-5.72%-0.33%-0.36%-2.55%2.60%-0.23%-0.51%0.45%0.64%-0.63%-12.13%-0.39%-1.21%0.14%0.94%-0.13%-0.44%0.50%0.39%皮阿诺皮阿诺11.91%13.19%-39.96%10.58%-2.16%9.31%8.11%6.28%6.53%-4.71%14.92%10.25%-63.33%12.15%-0.31%2.85%2.21

192、%1.82%6.37%-0.61%YOY()-0.89%1.28%-53.15%50.54%-10.07%-2.76%-4.67%-2.68%-4.05%-2.55%1.11%-4.67%-73.58%75.47%-1.93%-0.67%-2.12%-1.57%-5.78%-0.30%好莱客好莱客16.38%12.65%1.94%15.27%3.45%11.60%14.31%6.13%9.59%3.14%14.30%10.46%2.47%14.17%0.39%2.43%3.17%1.28%7.01%0.41%YOY()-1.54%-3.73%-10.71%13.33%-3.20%0.81%-2

193、0.90%-1.05%-5.68%-0.31%-2.25%-3.83%-8.00%11.70%-1.15%-0.68%-5.76%-0.39%-7.15%0.01%森鹰窗业森鹰窗业10.42%15.18%13.43%12.17%-6.53%19.51%22.58%9.73%15.53%-1.99%12.43%17.45%15.00%6.04%-0.31%2.77%4.36%1.39%7.92%-0.10%YOY()0.63%4.77%-1.76%-1.26%1.56%4.02%5.03%-0.10%3.36%4.55%1.25%5.02%-2.45%-8.96%0.68%-0.98%-0.37

194、%0.19%1.88%0.22%归母净利率归母净利率ROEROE毛销差毛销差毛利率毛利率 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.22 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 33：软体家居行业主要公司盈利能力（%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 4.2 智能家居：渗透率稳步提升，国产替代延续，价格竞争激烈智能家居：渗透率稳步提升，国产替代延续，价格竞争激烈 收入收入&利润：国产替代趋势延续，竞争加剧下“以价换量”越发明显利润：国产替代趋势延续，竞争加剧下“以价换量”越发明显 智能马桶：智能马桶：国产替代延续，竞争激烈、价格进一步下探。根据奥维云网数据，2023 年智能坐便器

195、线上零售额为 68.4 亿元（同比+10.0%），24Q1 线上智能坐便器零售额规模为7.7 亿元（同比-20.0%）；行业以价换量（2019-24Q1 智能一体机行业均价由近 2700 元下探至 2000 元+），内资品牌依托生产制造&渠道优势，加码布局轻智能产品渗透下沉市场，加速抢占市场份额。图表 34：智能坐便器线上零售额规模及增速 图表 35：线上智能一体机均价趋势 资料来源：奥维云网，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：奥维云网，国盛证券研究所 智能马桶：轻智能占比提升，瑞尔特自主品牌持续放量智能马桶：轻智能占比提升，瑞尔特自主品牌持续放量。23Q4 箭牌家居/瑞尔特分别实现收入 23.68/

196、6.38 亿元（同比+5.4%/+11.3%）、24Q1 分别实现收入 11.35/5.23 亿元（同比+2.3%/+32.3%）；其中，箭牌家居箭牌家居推进零售门店、家装和电商等全渠道扩张，加码轻智能马桶产品，持续上市 X7ZOOM、H2 等系列智能座便器，价格相对更低的轻智能产品占比提升拉低毛利水平；此外，24Q1 出口订单影响公司毛利率，23Q4/24Q1 毛利率分别为 25.9%（-4.24pct）/24.4%（-6.04pct）；瑞尔特瑞尔特智能座便器及盖板业务快速增长，自主品牌持续放量，线上渠道依托抖音引流表现亮眼，线下加速拓展建材店中店及家电渠道，市场份额加速提升，同时由于自主品

197、牌占比持续提升，驱动盈利中枢上移，23Q4/24Q1 毛利率分别为 32.02%（+9.37pct）/30.24%（+5.01pct），伴随智能马桶均价探底&内资品牌份额提升，公司降本增效成效释放（精简 SKU、提升自产率等），盈利能力有望保持稳定。智能晾晒：智能新品迭代，供应链提效。智能晾晒：智能新品迭代，供应链提效。根据 CSHIA Research 数据，2023 年中国智能2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1顾家家居顾家家居34.86%35.21%28.87%30

198、.83%32.13%31.01%33.76%34.18%32.83%33.08%16.17%15.52%14.13%14.44%15.25%15.54%17.33%13.05%15.31%15.67%YOY()-1.51%0.35%-6.34%1.97%2.28%2.94%3.70%-1.48%2.00%0.95%-0.70%-0.65%-1.39%0.32%0.06%2.74%2.01%-1.35%0.87%0.42%喜临门喜临门34.75%33.76%32.00%32.40%32.39%37.01%32.52%34.71%34.37%33.46%18.08%17.63%16.64%12.8

199、8%12.44%17.71%14.27%11.65%14.10%14.30%YOY()5.91%-0.99%-1.76%0.40%-1.87%3.35%-0.16%5.15%1.96%1.06%11.62%-0.45%-0.99%-3.76%-1.89%0.57%-2.53%8.20%1.22%1.86%慕思股份慕思股份53.49%49.28%44.98%46.47%48.39%52.20%50.98%49.22%50.29%50.15%22.18%24.46%20.35%21.42%22.35%28.95%21.52%26.26%25.09%23.60%YOY()53.49%-4.21%-4

200、.30%1.50%3.38%5.29%3.70%2.73%3.82%1.76%52.91%2.28%-4.11%1.07%0.59%5.39%3.44%4.23%3.67%1.25%顾家家居顾家家居10.47%6.68%9.07%10.06%10.12%10.63%10.99%9.95%10.44%9.66%19.66%12.54%20.76%20.40%4.41%5.51%6.05%5.32%20.88%4.29%YOY()-0.32%-3.79%2.40%0.99%0.36%0.63%0.19%0.32%0.38%-0.46%-1.49%-7.12%8.21%-0.35%-0.98%0.0

201、8%-0.14%0.62%0.47%-0.12%喜临门喜临门7.81%5.57%7.19%3.03%4.20%6.87%7.42%1.48%4.94%4.21%14.33%10.66%17.46%6.79%1.75%4.43%4.56%1.05%11.59%1.98%YOY()18.22%-2.24%1.62%-4.16%0.36%-0.66%-0.51%8.70%1.91%0.01%33.51%-3.67%6.81%-10.67%0.07%-0.54%-0.23%5.29%4.80%0.24%慕思股份慕思股份8.62%12.05%10.59%12.20%10.58%17.64%11.57%1

202、6.01%14.38%11.76%31.84%28.53%26.75%16.27%2.30%5.80%3.70%6.23%17.29%3.03%YOY()1.83%3.42%-1.45%1.60%0.61%5.51%3.12%-1.08%2.19%1.18%2.19%-3.31%-1.78%-10.48%-2.42%0.61%0.89%-0.50%1.03%0.73%毛利率毛利率毛销差毛销差归母净利率归母净利率ROE-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%00708020022202324Q1零售额（亿元，左轴）YOY（%，右轴）2000210

203、0220023002400250026002700200222023均价（元）均价（元）2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.23 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 晾衣机市场规模预计同比+20.2%，好太太好太太市占率超 30%、承接行业增长红利，23Q4、24Q1分别实现收入5.72亿元（+53.0%）、2.92亿元（+5.7%），毛利率分别同比+3.30pct、+6.23pct 至 53.05%、51.94%，高毛利智能产品占比提升驱动盈利能力提升。我们预计，随着智能晾晒新品迭代，单价中枢保持稳定，配合供应链化深化布局，自供比例增加，盈利能力有望提升

204、。此外，面对行业竞争加剧、消费需求走低的外部环境，好太太好太太持续深化渠道建设，维持线上渠道优势的同时加快线下渠道改革（区域化政策、通路拓展、尾部经销商淘汰等），不断优化单店模型。图表 36：重点智能家居企业收入及利润情况一览（百万元，%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 37：重点智能家居企业盈利能力一览（%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 期间费用期间费用：智能产品处于快速渗透阶段，品牌&产品打造需要持续投入。瑞尔特瑞尔特销售费率持续提升、23Q4&24Q1 分别同比+13.61pct/+5.84pct 至 17.86%/11.66%，好太太23Q4&24Q1 销售费率分别同比

205、+0.58pct/+3.14%；此外，瑞尔特、好太太瑞尔特、好太太持续投入研发强化产品竞争力，23Q4 研发费率分别同比+0.68pct、0.39pct，24Q1 研发费率分别同比+0.07pct、0.57pct。图表 38：重点智能家居企业期间费率一览（%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1箭牌家居箭牌家居6657.956502.388373.487513.461109.562324.181846.332368.107648.181

206、134.646942.576699.218614.607779.941366.032624.402208.902732.928012.991438.39YOY-2.2%-2.3%28.8%-10.3%-1.7%6.7%-5.8%5.4%1.8%2.3%-2.7%-3.5%28.6%-9.7%21.1%8.8%0.7%8.8%3.0%5.3%瑞尔特瑞尔特1109.441284.201868.291959.59395.61577.86572.64638.312184.42523.381152.691307.651896.381995.80472.84690.97691.71735.952282.0

207、6631.73YOY11.6%15.8%45.5%4.9%-2.8%17.0%18.0%11.3%11.5%32.3%14.9%13.4%45.0%5.2%16.2%22.7%31.1%20.7%14.3%33.6%好太太好太太1260.271160.011425.451382.02276.23442.49397.29572.321688.33292.061299.381192.241500.621422.95337.31472.99427.04594.171710.17317.44YOY-3.8%-8.0%22.9%-3.0%13.3%16.7%3.2%53.0%22.2%5.7%-4.9%

208、-8.2%25.9%-5.2%38.4%13.4%5.8%43.2%20.2%-5.9%箭牌家居箭牌家居556.25588.51577.15593.033.11168.18116.16137.19424.64-90.35506.93533.47532.65540.73-15.54165.12111.92130.35391.85-105.70YOY182.2%5.8%-1.9%2.8%-88.1%-20.8%-36.9%-19.5%-28.4%-3004.0%651.7%5.2%-0.2%1.5%-35.4%64.6%164.6%264.6%瑞尔特瑞尔特181.54114.63139.36210

209、.9439.7973.5362.5342.73218.5858.55162.0983.61114.33192.6434.6170.5657.5337.38200.0953.46YOY12.7%-36.9%21.6%51.4%8.7%57.0%-11.6%-24.7%3.6%47.1%12.5%-48.4%36.8%68.5%8.4%60.3%-15.5%-23.1%3.9%54.5%好太太好太太279.47265.75300.22218.5948.27102.0188.0788.91327.2655.55245.48227.85278.90220.9747.86100.7280.2294.20

210、323.0155.40YOY7.2%-4.9%13.0%-27.2%6.6%74.7%28.4%92.1%49.7%15.1%10.9%-7.2%22.4%-20.8%15.1%53.7%16.2%110.1%46.2%15.8%扣非归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速收入收入&合同负债规模及增速合同负债规模及增速营业收入规模及增速营业收入规模及增速归母净利润及增速归母净利润及增速2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1箭牌家居箭牌家居32.47%31.46%30.06%32

211、.85%30.44%28.96%29.36%25.94%28.34%24.40%23.72%23.18%20.53%23.32%20.85%21.00%21.01%19.30%20.45%17.24%YOY()7.45%-1.00%-1.40%2.78%-5.47%-5.33%-3.17%-4.24%-4.51%-6.04%9.63%-0.55%-2.65%2.80%-3.56%-4.78%-1.94%-1.43%-2.87%-3.61%瑞尔特瑞尔特30.40%24.16%22.59%24.81%25.22%29.73%29.54%32.02%29.53%30.24%25.47%20.16%1

212、7.52%18.52%19.41%22.30%19.45%14.16%18.65%18.58%YOY()1.58%-6.23%-1.58%2.22%0.30%4.13%3.08%9.37%4.72%5.01%0.64%-5.31%-2.63%1.00%1.07%3.54%0.87%-4.24%0.13%-0.83%好太太好太太49.52%48.41%45.09%46.37%45.72%51.41%52.77%53.05%51.35%51.94%32.58%32.77%30.84%27.70%26.91%33.66%32.91%29.67%31.03%29.99%YOY()6.86%-1.10%

213、-3.32%1.27%2.37%6.85%6.00%3.30%4.99%6.23%4.35%0.19%-1.93%-3.14%-0.54%5.52%4.77%2.72%3.33%3.08%箭牌家居箭牌家居8.35%9.05%6.89%7.89%0.28%7.24%6.29%5.79%5.55%-7.96%34.74%24.77%19.44%12.52%0.07%3.54%2.42%2.78%8.49%-1.82%YOY()5.46%0.70%-2.16%1.00%-2.05%-2.52%-3.09%-1.79%-2.34%-8.24%10.99%-9.97%-5.33%-6.92%-0.82%

214、-3.06%-3.14%-1.41%-4.03%-1.89%瑞尔特瑞尔特16.36%8.93%7.46%10.76%10.06%12.72%10.92%6.69%10.01%11.19%11.07%6.81%7.86%10.90%2.04%3.72%3.12%2.08%10.51%2.78%YOY()0.16%-7.44%-1.47%3.31%1.06%3.24%-3.65%-3.21%-0.76%1.13%0.58%-4.26%1.05%3.05%-0.01%1.13%-0.74%-0.91%-0.40%0.74%好太太好太太22.18%22.91%21.06%15.82%17.48%23.

215、05%22.17%15.53%19.38%19.02%19.07%16.02%15.98%10.69%2.33%4.85%4.08%3.95%14.25%2.39%YOY()2.29%0.73%-1.85%-5.24%-1.11%7.65%4.35%3.16%3.57%1.54%-1.19%-3.05%-0.04%-5.29%-0.05%1.85%0.58%1.64%3.57%0.06%归母净利率归母净利率毛销差毛销差ROE毛利率毛利率2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1

216、箭牌家居箭牌家居19.04%19.84%19.70%22.96%30.74%17.86%22.03%18.86%21.04%30.86%9.68%10.75%9.97%13.23%21.13%9.97%13.78%11.88%13.10%22.78%YOY()-1.57%0.80%-0.15%3.27%-2.42%-1.72%-0.03%-3.06%-1.92%0.11%0.58%1.07%-0.78%3.26%-0.30%-0.87%1.66%-0.52%-0.13%1.66%瑞尔特瑞尔特12.64%15.63%14.74%13.00%16.87%12.96%17.73%25.88%18.6

217、9%19.45%8.97%10.06%9.15%9.02%10.21%9.70%8.08%7.71%8.79%8.61%YOY()1.80%2.99%-0.89%-1.74%0.89%-0.94%6.77%14.05%5.70%2.57%0.30%1.09%-0.91%-0.13%1.16%-2.74%-0.26%1.07%-0.24%-1.60%好太太好太太25.44%24.07%21.70%26.86%27.61%24.83%26.58%32.10%28.16%31.48%8.62%8.58%8.00%8.72%9.72%7.20%7.34%9.17%8.31%10.70%YOY()4.1

218、1%-1.37%-2.37%5.16%2.41%0.39%0.69%0.72%1.30%3.87%1.63%-0.04%-0.58%0.72%-0.55%-1.43%-0.30%0.25%-0.41%0.98%箭牌家居箭牌家居6.66%7.37%6.53%8.70%14.94%6.46%8.97%7.54%8.63%16.10%3.02%3.38%3.44%4.53%6.18%3.51%4.81%4.33%4.47%6.68%YOY()1.11%0.71%-0.84%2.17%-1.42%-0.31%1.43%-0.17%-0.06%1.16%-0.53%0.36%0.07%1.09%1.12

219、%-0.56%0.23%-0.35%-0.07%0.50%瑞尔特瑞尔特5.05%5.89%5.32%4.79%6.03%6.36%4.74%2.04%4.61%4.35%3.92%4.17%3.83%4.23%4.19%3.34%3.34%5.66%4.17%4.26%YOY()0.51%0.84%-0.57%-0.53%1.08%-2.27%0.28%0.39%-0.18%-1.67%-0.21%0.25%-0.34%0.40%0.07%-0.47%-0.54%0.68%-0.06%0.07%好太太好太太4.43%4.67%4.59%5.55%6.83%4.34%4.56%5.44%5.17

220、%7.24%4.20%3.91%3.41%3.17%2.89%2.87%2.79%3.73%3.15%3.46%YOY()0.71%0.25%-0.08%0.96%-0.84%-0.55%-0.30%-0.13%-0.39%0.41%0.92%-0.29%-0.50%-0.25%0.29%-0.89%0.01%0.39%-0.02%0.57%箭牌家居箭牌家居0.62%0.81%0.19%0.21%0.03%-0.07%-0.10%0.34%0.06%0.91%8.74%8.29%9.54%9.52%9.59%7.96%8.35%6.64%7.88%7.16%YOY()0.03%0.19%-0.

221、63%0.03%-0.21%-0.30%-0.46%0.28%-0.15%0.89%-2.18%-0.46%1.25%-0.02%-1.91%-0.55%-1.23%-2.81%-1.64%-2.43%瑞尔特瑞尔特-1.26%1.56%0.52%-2.32%0.84%-4.17%-0.43%0.31%-0.97%-0.82%4.93%4.01%5.06%6.29%5.82%7.43%10.09%17.86%10.88%11.66%YOY()0.55%2.82%-1.04%-2.84%0.51%1.22%4.83%-0.63%1.34%-1.67%0.95%-0.92%1.06%1.23%-0.

222、77%0.58%2.21%13.61%4.59%5.84%好太太好太太-0.13%-0.16%-0.56%-0.53%-0.92%-0.12%-0.61%-0.45%-0.48%-1.16%16.94%15.64%14.26%18.67%18.81%17.75%19.85%23.38%20.33%21.95%YOY()-0.04%-0.03%-0.41%0.03%0.05%0.50%-0.25%-0.12%0.05%-0.24%2.51%-1.30%-1.39%4.41%2.91%1.33%1.23%0.58%1.66%3.14%期间费用率期间费用率管理&研发费用率管理&研发费用率管理费用率管

223、理费用率研发费用率研发费用率财务费用率财务费用率销售费用率销售费用率 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.24 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 5 出口：订单延续改善，出口：订单延续改善，品牌品牌&供应链加速出海供应链加速出海 美国强韧性，欧洲疲软，新兴经济体增长势头良好。美国强韧性，欧洲疲软，新兴经济体增长势头良好。美国消费/就业/制造等指标持续超预期、经济强韧性显现；欧洲通胀压力仍存、且降息节奏受制于美国；新兴地区部分制造业出口型经济体增长势头良好。展望未来，1）24 年 3 月美国 PMI 重返 50%+，尽管降息预期延后、整体经济韧性仍有望延续；2）欧洲 PMI 仍

224、处低位区间且地缘冲突持续，全年预计表现平稳；3）新兴地区仍处扩张通道，增长趋势有望延续。此外，需要注意，全球大选年，通胀、利率、地缘政治等因素均存在一定不确定性。图表 39：不同地区 PMI 图表 40：不同地区 GDP 增速 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 多品类增速靓丽，其中地产后周期及必选品类复苏势头率先显现。多品类增速靓丽，其中地产后周期及必选品类复苏势头率先显现。24Q1 我国累计出口金额同比+1.5%，其中家具及其零件累计同比+19.6%。海外终端需求稳定，高增主要系春节错位&低基数。沙发、床垫、PVC 地板、办公椅等地产后周期，以及宠物食品

225、、保温杯、厨房塑料用品等必选消费品表现优异。此外，办公椅 24-25 年迎较明确换新周期（上轮于 20-21 年爆发，换新周期通常为 3-5 年），因此后续有望展现增长弹性。图表 41：分品类出口概况 资料来源：海关总署，国盛证券研究所 美国欧元区英国日本韩国印度越南俄罗斯 新加坡 菲律宾2024-0350.3046.1050.3048.2049.8059.1049.9055.7055.7050.902024-0247.8046.5047.5047.2050.7056.9050.4054.7056.8051.002024-0149.1046.6047.3048.0051.2056.5050.3

226、052.4054.7050.902023-1247.1044.4046.2047.9049.9054.9048.9054.6055.7051.502023-1146.7044.2047.2048.3050.0056.0047.3053.80-52.702023-1046.7043.1044.8048.7049.8055.5049.6053.8050.2052.402023-0949.0043.4044.3048.5049.9057.5049.7054.5050.1050.602023-0847.6043.5043.0049.6048.9058.6050.5052.7049.9049.70202

227、3-0746.4042.7045.3049.6049.4057.7048.7052.1049.8051.902023-0646.0043.4046.5049.8047.8057.8046.2052.6049.7050.902023-0546.9044.8047.1050.6048.4058.7045.3053.5049.5052.202023-0447.1045.8047.8049.5048.1057.2046.7052.6055.3051.402023-0346.3047.3047.9049.2047.6056.4047.7053.2052.6052.502023-0247.7048.504

228、9.3047.7048.5055.3051.2053.6049.6052.702023-0147.4048.8047.0048.9048.5055.4047.4052.6051.2053.50日本美国欧盟印度越南韩国菲律宾德国新加坡2020-06-9.70-7.53-13.40-23.130.39-2.69-16.91-10.70-11.802020-09-5.00-1.47-3.70-5.842.69-0.85-11.55-2.50-4.202020-12-0.40-1.08-3.201.784.48-0.72-8.23-1.20-0.502021-03-0.601.57-0.203.294

229、.652.36-3.77-1.704.402021-068.0011.9514.7022.636.576.4712.0411.2017.902021-092.104.744.909.87-6.024.207.042.409.502021-121.305.425.405.535.224.257.861.607.902022-030.303.575.804.455.053.108.054.304.202022-061.501.874.2012.817.832.967.521.604.602022-091.501.712.605.4613.713.077.701.204.202022-120.500

230、.651.404.265.921.357.110.202.402023-032.601.721.406.183.281.016.450.300.502023-062.302.380.308.224.050.874.35-0.400.502023-091.602.93-0.108.085.471.255.99-0.701.002023-121.203.130.108.366.722.205.57-0.402.202024-032.975.663.16-0.902.7023M1-223M323M423M523M623M723M823M923M1023M1123M1224M1-224M323Q1出口

231、金额31.8323.9922.4820.6921.6221.4322.2125.6724.9826.4927.6744.6521.1665.81YOY-7.0%44.6%18.7%-0.1%3.6%6.5%13.5%23.8%7.3%16.5%21.9%40.3%-11.8%17.9%出口金额7.715.625.595.436.045.706.436.987.117.467.7912.686.7119.39YOY-2.8%34.6%-1.1%5.3%19.7%16.6%33.6%27.4%23.4%27.7%42.1%64.5%19.4%45.5%出口金额6.634.634.403.994.2

232、64.064.154.754.234.735.078.024.7512.77YOY-5.2%28.5%16.5%15.2%27.3%21.3%27.9%20.7%7.7%14.6%22.8%21.0%2.5%13.4%出口金额2.651.661.831.291.330.941.000.850.860.710.922.721.664.38YOY0.2%12.4%-5.3%-16.3%-8.7%-20.2%-5.9%-12.9%5.0%-4.1%12.3%2.5%-0.2%1.5%出口金额2.130.990.901.131.021.291.050.941.121.130.871.901.363.2

233、6YOY21.4%-5.3%-27.0%-6.5%-39.8%-14.9%-3.4%-31.2%22.1%-13.4%-18.7%-10.7%37.4%4.5%出口金额3.612.662.182.012.202.151.931.861.741.751.872.510.843.36YOY28.5%74.1%74.6%15.7%11.6%19.5%12.3%6.1%17.3%-12.2%-9.9%-30.3%-68.2%-46.4%出口金额1.411.441.521.220.920.810.670.520.560.701.071.140.811.95YOY5.9%159.5%135.7%36.3%

234、15.7%-4.6%-43.4%-54.0%-46.5%-47.3%-11.0%-19.1%-43.6%-31.5%出口金额14.2810.189.819.679.478.929.719.909.6510.8710.5717.717.8925.59YOY-35.0%-11.4%-8.0%-12.8%-18.1%-16.6%-1.9%-1.0%-4.7%4.9%13.1%24.0%-22.5%4.6%出口金额48.2234.4136.1235.7335.2934.7837.6639.3942.0245.0046.4674.4034.42108.82YOY-24.7%3.9%4.7%-3.3%-1

235、.8%-4.0%23.8%29.2%31.6%32.7%35.7%54.3%0.0%31.7%出口金额4.483.573.042.692.492.432.032.222.302.742.824.071.705.78YOY-2.6%99.0%93.8%-5.8%-20.8%-30.8%-35.5%-33.3%-38.7%-19.3%-27.1%-9.0%-52.3%-28.2%出口金额78.4548.5143.6837.8835.8836.6234.7536.4538.0147.2558.30105.4247.94153.37YOY-16.4%5.4%-10.1%-17.4%-17.6%-6.9

236、%-8.9%-10.4%-16.1%-3.7%14.2%34.4%-1.2%20.8%出口金额32.9724.4619.1614.1514.2714.0913.5914.8012.1613.8015.3133.1117.3050.40YOY-26.9%7.2%-0.9%-32.0%-40.8%-39.7%-36.9%-28.9%-32.7%-20.8%-9.9%0.4%-29.3%-12.2%出口金额41.5426.4830.0829.8832.8530.3434.6328.9524.0822.5220.8352.9925.9178.90YOY-19.4%2.0%17.6%-0.2%-4.9%

237、-22.3%-6.3%-16.2%-17.6%-20.0%3.8%27.6%-2.2%16.0%出口金额85.5162.5160.3155.0655.1354.9556.7655.1751.2657.8060.70110.0051.84161.85YOY-9.6%26.7%4.6%-11.8%-15.4%-14.0%-0.6%-9.1%-15.1%-6.4%7.8%28.6%-17.1%9.3%出口金额38.1326.4629.4826.4026.6427.6929.0530.7828.0930.3728.8655.6622.3177.97YOY-3.7%42.6%32.1%3.8%-1.2%

238、3.7%32.6%31.5%8.3%23.2%23.2%46.0%-15.7%20.7%出口金额4.182.762.862.412.442.532.312.442.512.663.214.803.057.85YOY15.5%32.0%54.2%13.3%13.0%-11.1%-5.0%6.6%14.7%22.0%20.5%14.7%10.4%13.0%出口金额10.547.267.427.227.528.017.408.027.257.508.1314.127.7821.89YOY-19.6%-2.8%10.7%-11.4%0.7%0.5%1.9%37.1%18.7%29.4%21.2%33.

239、9%7.1%23.0%出口金额46.3732.6932.2932.2732.0029.9231.3733.5729.8232.8835.8160.7127.8688.57YOY-31.5%-11.8%-7.2%-15.1%-23.4%-26.6%-4.0%8.2%5.1%9.0%10.3%30.9%-14.8%12.0%出口金额1.090.840.830.880.800.740.640.550.500.510.551.210.541.75YOY-27.9%-0.8%-3.9%-8.0%-23.9%-12.5%-9.5%-21.8%-16.6%-21.0%16.8%10.9%-35.2%-9.2

240、%出口金额53.3634.4036.8934.7433.3433.4734.7234.3031.4734.0637.4572.4325.3097.73YOY-22.77%32.8%11.1%-4.9%-11.9%-10.7%-6.4%-0.8%-1.8%-4.6%10.4%35.7%-26.5%11.4%床垫（梦百合、顾家家居）弹簧床垫乳胶床垫单位：亿元单位：亿元办公椅（恒林股份、永艺股份）可调高度的转动坐具沙发（敏华控股、梦百合、匠心家居）皮革或再生皮革面的带软垫的木框架坐具其他带软垫的木框架坐具皮革或再生皮革面的带软垫的金属框架坐具其他带软垫的金属框架坐具充气床垫（浙江自然）充气床垫特种纸

241、（仙鹤股份、华旺科技、五洲特纸、冠豪高新）格拉辛纸装饰原纸热转印纸/热敏纸人造草坪（共创草坪）人造草坪自行车（久祺股份）自行车电动自行车花洒龙头（松霖科技、建霖家居）花洒龙头塑料制品（家联科技）厨房用塑料制品保温杯（哈尔斯、嘉益股份）保温杯宠物（依依股份、中宠股份、佩蒂股份、乖宝股份、源飞宠物、天元宠物）宠物尿垫宠物食品PVC地板（天振股份，海象新材，爱丽家居）PVC地板 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.25 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 美国地产底部企稳，后周期需求弹性值得期待。美国地产底部企稳，后周期需求弹性值得期待。自美联储释放降息信号后，美国借款利率 23 年

242、底高位下滑，尽管仍处高位，刚需&较强经济韧性依然驱动美国地产底部回暖：1）房价指数提升，2）新房销售底部复苏（24 年 3 月同比/环比分别+8.1%/+17.5%），3）二手房销售持续企稳回暖（24 年 2 月绝对值为近 9 个月内第二高）。后续伴随降息落地，地产需求有望持续释放（历史经验降息后一个季度，地产逐步复苏），后周期行业需求回升可期。图表 42：美国房价走势 图表 43：美国贷款利率 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 44：美国新房销售（万套）图表 45：美国二手房销售（万套）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证

243、券研究所 库存优化，家居库销比位于历史中值。库存优化，家居库销比位于历史中值。2023 年海外品牌商/零售商订单保守，持续优化库存。截止 2024 年 2 月，家居零售商/批发商历史库销比分位分别为 54.7%/64.1%，位于历史中枢，相较于其他耐用消费品类，库存相对低位。若地产复苏，家居类目有望率先开启主动补库周期。-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05003003------102015-01

244、---072023-10美国:房地美房价指数:季调同比0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%---------02美国:联邦基金利率美国:30年期抵押贷款固定利率美国:10年期国债收益率-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0204060801001201-0

245、-----012024-01美国:新建住房销量:未季调同比-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%00------01美国成屋销量同比 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.26 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 46：美国零售商&批发商库

246、销比 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 47：美国家居零售商销售额&库存同比 图表 48：美国家居批发销售额&库存同比 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 零售商总体机动车家具、家用装饰、电子和家电建筑材料、园林设备和物料食品饮料服装服饰日用品商场历史分位35.85%42.48%54.69%75.86%20.00%49.48%15.12%2020年至今均值1.441.991.681.810.792.431.512024-011.291.821.631.940.752.281.28批发商：耐用品汽车及配件家居及摆设木材及建材专业及商业设备电脑及外围设备

247、金属及矿产电气及电子五金及水暖机械设备耐用品杂项历史分位72.22%44.55%64.13%87.34%81.58%83.87%51.88%31.94%69.33%93.33%43.93%2020年至今均值1.591.561.641.401.090.791.971.192.022.521.462024-011.801.771.921.721.260.922.181.222.252.971.55批发商：非耐用品纸及纸制品药品服装及面料食品农产品化学品石油及石油产品酒类非耐用品杂项历史分位41.94%48.65%12.07%54.93%66.67%23.53%45.95%11.11%96.72%8

248、5.71%2020年至今均值0.931.041.141.940.661.241.130.371.261.392024-010.921.011.032.340.711.071.120.281.641.78零售商批发商（耐用品）批发商（非耐用品）-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%--------

249、---10零售商：家具零售额同比零售商：家具库存同比（右轴）-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%---------09批发商：家居销售额同比批发商：家居库存同比（右轴）2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.27

250、请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 49：海外不同类型零售商&品牌商收入&库存 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 补库逻辑持续演绎，补库逻辑持续演绎，24Q1 低基数下业绩靓丽，低基数下业绩靓丽，Q2 订单环比订单环比/同比均维系稳健增长，海同比均维系稳健增长，海外降息预期推迟致复苏预期推迟，但零售商、品牌商库存低位，海外需求韧性突出，年外降息预期推迟致复苏预期推迟，但零售商、品牌商库存低位，海外需求韧性突出，年内需求或保持平稳。目前降息预期降温，但美国成屋销售和新开工均有回暖迹象，后续内需求或保持平稳。目前降息预期降温，但美国成屋销售和新开工均有回暖迹象，后续复苏预期有

251、望持续演绎，持续关注有能力上修业绩预期或成长逻辑加强的公司。复苏预期有望持续演绎，持续关注有能力上修业绩预期或成长逻辑加强的公司。收入延续改善，结构性成长公司增长靓丽。收入延续改善，结构性成长公司增长靓丽。23Q4、24Q1 出口公司合计实现营收 176.84、163.62 亿元（同比+22.3%、+24.5%）。受益于海外库存优化、客户订单修复，出口公司 23 年收入逐季改善，其中匠心家居、麒盛科技匠心家居、麒盛科技等 23Q4 边际承压主要系下游季节性提前补库，同比仍表现靓丽；24Q1 海外库存恢复常态、需求平稳，低基数下收入增速靓丽，其中部分公司受益于细分行业景气、下游客户份额提升、自身

252、加速渠道&品牌扩展，增长趋势优于同行；其中，恒林股份（恒林股份（+39.0%）、致欧科技（致欧科技（+45.3%）、西大门（西大门（+38.3%）高增主要系跨境电商兑现高增；乐歌股份（乐歌股份（+40.8%）海外仓贡献主要增量；匠心家居匠心家居（+30.7%）新品加速迭代、新老客户同步扩张；嘉益股份嘉益股份（+78.2%）、哈尔斯哈尔斯（+58.6%）保温杯需求景气、Stanley 爆品&新品持续增长。其中，永艺股份永艺股份新产品、新客户等 Q1 导入早期，Q2 有望加速导入，增长有望提速。2021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023

253、Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4劳氏(LOWES)24.13%0.98%2.73%5.06%-3.12%-0.34%2.45%5.18%-5.55%-9.17%-12.81%-17.12%WAYFAIR49.25%-10.39%-18.71%-11.41%-13.93%-14.87%-9.01%-4.64%-7.32%-3.44%3.66%0.42%RH-19.31%0.39%24.57%22.18%78.26%39.42%19.24%11.12%11.21%0.28%-13.65%-14.43%FLOOR&D COR41.01%86.03%27.99%26.35%31.46%26.7

254、1%25.24%14.63%9.07%4.23%0.91%0.00%家得宝(HOME DEPOT)32.70%8.05%9.79%10.72%3.75%6.50%5.57%0.31%-4.24%-2.00%-2.99%-2.92%沃尔玛(WALMART)2.74%2.40%4.32%0.52%2.36%8.37%8.74%7.31%7.58%5.74%5.23%5.69%开市客(COSTCO)16.65%14.58%21.50%17.41%16.56%15.94%16.16%15.02%8.09%6.48%2.00%9.50%塔吉特(TARGET)11.28%24.72%21.25%21.12

255、%23.36%9.51%13.34%9.38%4.02%3.49%3.38%1.29%百思买(BEST BUY)-6.34%3.92%21.39%11.46%35.91%19.57%0.48%-3.38%-8.51%-12.83%-11.11%-9.96%亚马逊(AMAZON)43.82%27.18%15.26%9.44%7.30%7.21%14.70%8.58%9.37%10.85%12.57%13.91%欧迪办公（OFFICE DEPOT）-13.17%5.93%-14.18%-10.75%-7.95%-11.02%-0.32%3.13%-3.21%-6.15%-7.50%-14.25%S

256、TEELCASE15.32%-11.48%19.61%11.23%33.03%19.03%12.06%6.51%1.48%-0.93%-5.93%-3.34%YETI41.94%44.84%23.10%17.93%18.61%17.44%19.55%1.10%3.12%-4.16%0.00%16.03%TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL26.92%75.75%19.96%28.63%18.75%3.58%-5.52%-12.67%-2.53%4.85%-0.48%-1.42%LA-Z-BOY-30.99%2.66%-1.19%41.44%83.84%25.43%21.56%3

257、1.78%15.11%6.15%0.20%-18.01%SLEEP NUMBER20.25%69.97%20.57%-13.37%-7.24%13.37%-15.59%-19.31%-0.11%-16.44%-12.56%8.19%HNI3.33%22.28%15.72%7.25%18.18%21.79%2.05%9.30%-16.29%-9.36%18.84%3.16%CRICUT126.02%42.13%24.44%4.54%-24.41%-45.06%-31.95%-27.61%-25.94%-3.26%-1.18%-17.65%PETCO27.02%18.69%14.52%13.15%

258、4.31%3.21%4.02%4.23%5.42%3.38%-0.46%6.08%Freshpet33.25%35.81%27.79%37.09%41.49%34.42%40.65%43.12%26.75%25.56%32.57%29.90%2021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4劳氏(LOWES)28.70%25.24%6.19%8.72%10.10%11.59%18.77%5.27%-3.54%-9.87%-11.54%-8.84%WAYFAIR5.37%39.85%22.82%32.3

259、1%34.20%63.57%54.61%30.43%3.75%-21.43%-23.30%-16.67%RH-6.78%1.45%15.82%24.06%20.17%32.47%27.46%34.92%37.61%32.99%29.31%9.20%FLOOR&D COR3.18%15.07%39.21%54.15%89.18%96.57%58.49%28.19%2.75%-12.77%-16.28%-14.41%家得宝(HOME DEPOT)27.95%40.09%27.40%32.72%31.91%37.97%24.96%12.77%0.29%-10.82%-11.33%-15.71%沃尔玛

260、(WALMART)12.53%16.24%10.88%25.72%32.01%25.48%12.56%0.12%-7.02%-5.34%-1.17%-2.98%开市客(COSTCO)7.84%17.00%26.93%16.12%13.70%18.90%26.10%25.97%9.62%-2.45%-7.37%-7.01%塔吉特(TARGET)-5.25%-2.70%11.55%18.47%22.77%26.85%17.67%30.50%43.12%36.07%14.43%-2.90%百思买(BEST BUY)-23.14%-20.58%-1.45%8.47%43.28%55.15%14.67%

261、6.29%9.39%-5.83%-14.72%-13.83%亚马逊(AMAZON)26.47%23.06%30.33%37.17%46.70%58.19%18.47%5.41%-2.34%-4.10%-3.39%-3.16%欧迪办公（OFFICE DEPOT）0.00%-4.78%-15.90%-7.63%-6.78%1.15%5.83%-3.61%-8.43%-13.64%-12.13%-7.61%STEELCASE-7.69%6.88%21.70%68.04%63.16%70.39%32.52%-1.84%-17.47%-31.74%-31.40%-27.81%YETI-9.11%59.7

262、2%97.56%127.58%124.57%121.06%65.22%16.48%-15.99%-34.30%-22.32%-9.21%TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL 16.61%25.27%39.66%48.64%82.34%90.96%55.62%19.64%-2.51%-14.50%-18.95%-12.95%LA-Z-BOY-8.75%-8.03%6.82%24.50%46.59%51.48%48.79%34.07%25.48%19.93%-3.82%-8.88%SLEEP NUMBER0.35%8.45%3.45%29.84%25.40%36.96%31.84%

263、7.94%13.15%0.11%2.35%1.23%HNI-9.59%19.67%30.84%31.77%33.98%21.09%17.82%-0.82%-7.48%3.44%3.02%9.16%CRICUT-82.59%60.06%13.43%-7.78%-22.57%-39.19%-39.22%-37.24%-30.49%PETCO-19.04%25.23%18.61%15.13%12.27%-3.41%-2.05%-6.64%0.99%5.06%Freshpet37.50%31.58%61.11%89.47%104.55%144.00%120.69%61.11%46.67%6.56%-7

264、.81%9.03%库存增速家居零售商综合零售商品牌商宠物零售&品牌商办公用品品牌商家居零售商综合零售商品牌商宠物零售&品牌商收入增速办公用品品牌商 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.28 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 50：出口板块收入&利润拆分（百万元）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 盈利能力整体稳定。盈利能力整体稳定。23Q4 出口链公司毛利率为 31.9%（同比-0.5pct），归母净利率为 7.6%（同比-2.1pct）；24Q1 毛利率为 31.9%（同比-0.3pct），归母净利率为 11.5%（同比-1.8pct），整体表现基本稳定。原材料、汇率

265、利好，产能利用率提升，但是代工企业普遍下调价格让利客户（23 年共创草坪共创草坪均价同比-12%）；跨境电商企业受红海事件影响，海运费有所上升，且消费降级背景下价格下滑（23 年致欧科技致欧科技均价同比-7.3%）。目前部分原材料价格底部上升、汇率稳定、海运费高位回落，预计 24Q2 毛利率保持稳定，净利率受制于上年同期汇兑收益高基数影响、预计普遍承压。2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1出口出口35540.5246716.2463538.2160473.7913143.

266、2815740.2916861.5117684.2163429.2916362.7836084.6547459.0564801.5561746.3014380.9816970.8618048.1518789.6064534.6817518.74YOY-31.4%36.0%-4.8%-14.4%0.5%12.4%22.3%4.9%24.5%-31.5%36.5%-4.7%-6.3%0.2%11.9%19.4%4.5%21.8%梦百合梦百合3831.596530.138139.258017.241698.781901.852114.832260.457975.921818.973891.63674

267、1.198319.498121.921801.942017.112229.112385.228100.681952.43YOY25.6%70.4%24.6%-1.5%-20.7%-2.0%6.5%16.0%-0.5%7.1%26.6%73.2%23.4%-2.4%-15.9%-2.2%6.5%16.1%-0.3%8.4%盈趣科技盈趣科技3854.445310.257060.974345.22871.39972.311116.56899.953860.20764.193870.915328.847122.184506.24989.181099.951230.17991.253951.50872.

268、44YOY38.7%37.8%33.0%-38.5%-32.5%-2.3%3.2%-7.8%-11.2%-12.3%38.6%37.7%33.7%-36.7%-23.4%-0.7%4.1%-12.8%-12.3%-11.8%浙江自然浙江自然544.95581.34842.44945.80240.26290.00141.15151.90823.32273.49550.62591.76856.95959.75253.93302.88156.19168.47839.88296.92YOY7.2%6.7%44.9%12.3%-27.2%-5.1%-15.8%6.7%-13.0%13.8%7.0%7.5

269、%44.8%12.0%-23.1%-5.9%-13.8%7.8%-12.5%16.9%匠心家居匠心家居1174.701318.131924.961462.65427.96517.53509.23466.731921.46559.161176.301318.461931.531465.27431.29524.08514.81468.701923.43561.86YOY7.1%12.2%46.0%-24.0%-7.4%61.7%55.8%32.0%31.4%30.7%7.1%12.1%46.5%-24.1%-6.7%60.3%50.9%31.6%31.3%30.3%永艺股份永艺股份2450.483

270、433.724658.624055.28696.71839.68963.851038.123538.36856.692459.283449.674674.074068.58711.00854.67982.691055.633555.87875.82YOY1.6%40.1%35.7%-13.0%-30.9%-30.2%-1.4%19.7%-12.7%23.0%1.4%40.3%35.5%-13.0%-29.5%-29.9%-1.5%19.9%-12.6%23.2%恒林股份恒林股份2903.744743.095777.806514.931693.581949.872132.212418.94819

271、4.592353.692952.314804.796204.266908.832057.692343.502489.452725.778501.422639.81YOY25.3%63.3%21.8%12.8%20.8%25.7%27.1%28.3%25.8%39.0%26.7%62.7%29.1%11.4%46.8%13.3%19.6%19.6%23.1%28.3%乐歌股份乐歌股份978.071940.662871.283208.31796.41881.641007.301216.363901.711121.581022.631994.742948.673264.67853.36929.011

272、062.451282.613967.951200.92YOY3.3%98.4%48.0%11.7%4.3%12.3%31.9%35.7%21.6%40.8%6.4%95.1%47.8%10.7%11.8%10.1%29.5%34.7%21.5%40.7%久祺股份久祺股份1795.432285.563709.752376.05487.05549.87516.48452.602006.00529.371909.382378.373748.172482.77584.64682.56651.79565.582118.98630.53YOY-1.4%27.3%62.3%-36.0%-37.1%-6.2%

273、1.2%-10.4%-15.6%8.7%1.6%24.6%57.6%-33.8%-24.5%5.7%5.9%-7.6%-14.7%7.8%共创草坪共创草坪1553.541850.292301.662470.75558.78711.45646.05545.162461.43688.071602.441882.442389.752549.57636.73757.84700.41606.232522.51744.13YOY11.2%19.1%24.4%7.3%-18.0%12.2%1.4%5.2%-0.4%23.1%12.5%17.5%26.9%6.7%-6.5%10.2%0.9%1.5%-1.1%

274、16.9%嘉益股份嘉益股份404.96355.59585.631259.54242.46410.83575.17546.941775.40432.08407.14357.53604.311265.03260.30416.21579.58552.791781.25439.59YOY7.6%-12.2%64.7%115.1%32.5%49.8%51.8%29.2%41.0%78.2%7.4%-12.2%69.0%109.3%42.2%48.5%49.3%28.9%40.8%68.9%家联科技家联科技1020.481026.271234.351976.02328.45439.31461.98491.

275、421721.16499.351023.371031.781243.121982.60338.71447.04469.82496.291726.03510.89YOY7.6%0.6%20.3%60.1%-20.8%-24.3%-21.1%24.2%-12.9%52.0%7.7%0.8%20.5%59.5%-18.4%-24.4%-21.0%23.4%-12.9%50.8%哈尔斯哈尔斯1793.741491.942388.912427.90362.45574.28769.30701.092407.12574.781827.201521.282426.322474.74395.83606.8479

276、1.50730.242436.27606.25YOY0.0%-16.8%60.1%1.6%-35.9%-21.4%27.7%32.4%-0.9%58.6%-0.1%-16.7%59.5%2.0%-30.0%-19.8%26.0%26.7%-1.6%53.2%玉马遮阳玉马遮阳383.59385.01520.38546.62130.42173.87173.01185.73663.02158.65389.02396.87532.48561.54148.46185.64187.62199.70676.99173.80YOY19.2%0.4%35.2%5.0%14.4%22.4%18.8%28.2%21

277、.3%21.6%17.6%2.0%34.2%5.5%30.2%21.5%20.2%24.9%20.6%17.1%海象新材海象新材858.771223.941797.571894.50433.36489.69333.34342.581598.97301.38863.321226.071800.471897.78440.54491.14338.15345.641602.03305.53YOY9.6%42.5%46.9%5.4%7.2%-11.3%-30.0%-25.8%-15.6%-30.5%9.8%42.0%46.8%5.4%9.0%-11.6%-29.4%-25.7%-15.6%-30.6%麒

278、盛科技麒盛科技2529.262259.912966.832663.34696.84826.18862.91716.863102.80755.962533.712265.232972.512669.18706.24838.71877.84725.453111.38766.24YOY5.8%-10.6%31.3%-10.2%-6.4%19.9%27.2%30.0%16.5%8.5%5.6%-10.6%31.2%-10.2%-5.1%20.7%28.5%30.2%16.6%8.5%致欧科技致欧科技2325.573970.995967.385455.391267.471376.441492.13193

279、8.156074.191841.612355.724024.896021.875499.821322.381430.411532.541991.946127.981886.16YOY45.8%70.8%50.3%-8.6%-11.2%-0.4%13.9%45.0%11.3%45.3%45.4%70.9%49.6%-8.7%-7.3%0.0%17.0%44.2%11.4%42.6%西大门西大门408.82354.25465.48499.10119.16157.05175.21185.91637.33164.84422.35374.66485.37520.94142.81180.04199.092

280、04.49655.91185.57YOY4.6%-13.3%31.4%7.2%5.0%38.1%26.1%39.8%27.7%38.3%4.7%-11.3%29.5%7.3%25.8%34.6%28.3%32.1%25.9%29.9%松霖科技松霖科技1738.632034.822977.003180.53604.79790.16798.68789.792983.42681.041769.172081.753074.203269.29695.50862.83877.09867.193060.82752.05YOY-1.1%17.0%46.3%6.8%-23.7%-14.0%3.1%13.7%-6

281、.2%12.6%0.0%17.7%47.7%6.3%-12.3%-14.8%-1.3%10.7%-6.4%8.1%建霖家居建霖家居3393.033835.084712.124186.25807.971073.511208.471243.824333.761152.823433.333873.264778.554244.38874.941141.801274.821305.614395.561232.15YOY-3.9%13.0%22.9%-11.2%-29.0%-11.6%22.1%47.3%3.5%42.7%-3.8%12.8%23.4%-11.2%-23.1%-10.0%22.2%44.6

282、%3.6%40.8%浩洋股份浩洋股份845.06399.69618.141222.70330.21378.82301.72294.141304.89315.18848.28402.92627.281234.76344.62390.68308.55297.241307.99317.95YOY23.1%-52.7%54.7%97.8%42.5%11.7%-15.8%0.2%6.7%-4.6%21.8%-52.5%55.7%96.8%48.7%11.9%-14.8%-2.7%5.9%-7.7%涛涛车业涛涛车业751.661385.572017.691765.67348.78435.94561.937

283、97.592144.25519.90776.511412.552040.011798.62390.89467.92594.47823.582170.24567.71YOY21.9%84.3%45.6%-12.5%-5.0%7.2%30.4%42.1%21.4%49.1%24.0%81.9%44.4%-11.8%6.5%9.7%38.0%38.6%20.7%45.2%出口出口4342.175269.414893.565469.491396.251851.691642.901048.235939.071387.284150.924739.184285.865097.62852.911880.421

284、633.60861.965228.881291.68YOY-21.4%-7.1%11.8%24.2%3.9%2.4%9.2%8.6%-0.6%-14.2%-9.6%18.9%-13.2%17.8%7.6%32.5%2.6%51.4%梦百合梦百合373.68378.59-275.5341.3616.7780.8415.31-6.33106.6019.82361.29349.92-258.3936.335.2388.9631.29-24.45101.0418.98YOY100.8%1.3%-172.8%115.0%-45.6%53.0%1.5%89.0%157.7%18.2%60.4%-3.1%-

285、173.8%114.1%-81.2%186.8%2.8%53.8%178.1%262.7%盈趣科技盈趣科技973.171024.961093.06693.3680.17123.11130.27116.96450.5155.61890.79904.35958.63606.2342.41128.20113.56102.50386.6743.34YOY19.6%5.3%6.6%-36.6%-48.4%-34.5%-32.5%-25.5%-35.0%-30.6%22.5%1.5%6.0%-36.8%-68.0%-28.6%-37.1%-9.7%-36.2%2.2%浙江自然浙江自然131.38159.5

286、4219.51212.9767.2153.3113.14-2.98130.6838.67122.89137.08198.67204.6253.3061.2518.374.00136.9355.66YOY60.9%21.4%37.6%-3.0%-20.9%-40.3%-47.3%-121.7%-38.6%-42.5%30.7%11.5%44.9%3.0%-31.0%-29.4%-54.0%465.8%-33.1%4.4%匠心家居匠心家居112.94205.60298.44334.1176.59124.60121.3784.83407.39121.00169.98197.77297.63288.9

287、461.89111.96107.6974.65356.19113.22YOY-17.9%82.0%45.2%12.0%8.7%22.1%43.9%9.9%21.9%58.0%25.6%16.4%50.5%-2.9%0.3%14.0%58.2%22.4%23.3%82.9%永艺股份永艺股份181.33232.50181.33335.2151.7390.2369.2286.69297.8842.69144.77197.96139.11242.4635.2087.9971.7614.00208.9642.81YOY74.5%28.2%-22.0%84.9%9.5%1.2%-53.4%72.4%-11

288、.1%-17.5%92.4%36.7%-29.7%74.3%-19.4%13.8%0.4%-72.0%-13.8%21.6%恒林股份恒林股份243.39363.28337.66352.8678.26184.14103.56-102.87263.10102.69187.85323.16286.82316.1476.90165.3596.13-103.44234.94103.01YOY42.4%49.3%-7.1%4.5%7.5%33.4%23.4%-277.2%-25.4%31.2%40.2%72.0%-11.2%10.2%12.6%11.4%-8.7%-1667.7%-25.7%34.0%乐歌

289、股份乐歌股份62.98217.09184.68218.73397.0546.1773.57116.90633.6979.8548.96184.74109.36103.9520.6461.6570.4699.21251.9541.29YOY9.4%244.7%-14.9%18.4%2104.0%-58.9%163.9%93.5%189.7%-79.9%17.2%277.3%-40.8%-4.9%805.2%415.3%23.9%160.6%142.4%100.1%久祺股份久祺股份101.99156.75205.21167.8613.8639.1242.6210.87106.4721.4997.8

290、6140.62189.38153.6110.7135.8837.526.8690.9719.01YOY97.6%53.7%30.9%-18.2%-67.4%-33.7%-18.5%-22.7%-36.6%55.1%87.8%43.7%34.7%-18.9%-74.8%-33.9%-23.3%-13.0%-40.8%77.6%共创草坪共创草坪284.60410.92380.29447.0393.68132.73125.8378.98431.22121.18268.66384.10355.16428.8583.43134.20124.0976.93418.65117.12YOY24.7%44.4%

291、-7.5%17.5%9.8%7.5%-13.4%-15.1%-3.5%29.4%29.5%43.0%-7.5%20.7%2.2%11.6%-11.9%-10.7%-2.4%40.4%嘉益股份嘉益股份71.9064.8482.17271.9153.15109.90150.77158.21472.03107.4861.1252.1576.38270.9551.20113.96158.83142.45466.44108.82YOY-11.5%-9.8%26.7%230.9%61.0%105.9%85.8%51.6%73.6%102.2%-19.1%-14.7%46.5%254.7%79.5%133.

292、4%74.5%38.9%72.2%112.5%家联科技家联科技74.84114.3471.20179.2218.3826.7017.94-17.6745.3643.3766.8589.1951.74155.339.1113.6216.96-21.8117.889.86YOY609.7%52.8%-37.7%151.7%-18.9%-53.6%-72.1%-150.9%-74.7%136.0%208.3%33.4%-42.0%200.2%-47.4%-74.7%-70.7%-183.2%-88.5%8.3%哈尔斯哈尔斯55.12-28.31135.50205.913.5741.99107.429

293、6.80249.7831.4856.27-49.36124.88197.350.1250.31108.2457.06215.7331.40YOY-44.5%-151.4%578.7%52.0%-88.4%-56.4%102.6%276.2%21.3%781.6%-47.0%-187.7%353.0%58.0%-99.6%-41.9%79.0%152.4%9.3%25927.0%玉马遮阳玉马遮阳109.12108.05140.32156.6527.0245.8446.8145.37165.0436.62110.9496.88135.20151.4326.7643.4645.6344.07159.

294、9336.65YOY35.0%-1.0%29.9%11.6%0.3%4.4%-2.3%19.8%5.4%35.5%29.7%-12.7%39.5%12.0%-0.3%2.4%-3.6%26.5%5.6%37.0%海象新材海象新材138.32188.2996.97212.8467.24111.40-39.88-93.1145.6510.98129.32169.3896.21214.8766.68110.01-39.82-94.6242.2511.02YOY54.4%36.1%-48.5%119.5%290.7%94.8%-167.8%-217.0%-78.6%-83.7%44.3%31.0%-4

295、3.2%123.3%289.3%94.1%-163.8%-220.3%-80.3%-83.5%麒盛科技麒盛科技394.88273.43357.1225.6323.9197.8664.8619.05205.6744.93393.71233.25317.20139.739.6592.31115.9236.58254.4657.50YOY34.9%-30.8%30.6%-92.8%-57.4%136.1%-6.2%113.5%702.6%88.0%34.8%-40.8%36.0%-55.9%-84.1%44.3%36.6%152.5%82.1%495.8%致欧科技致欧科技107.99380.2523

296、9.82250.1187.3898.53100.53126.44412.88100.54163.90458.69207.49251.3484.49128.17100.25118.84431.7595.98YOY165.7%252.1%-36.9%4.3%69.9%67.2%64.8%60.6%65.1%15.1%106.8%179.9%-54.8%21.1%82.3%116.5%-71.8%13.6%西大门西大门88.3977.8489.5082.0416.6231.6527.5815.2991.1423.3089.0174.8576.9575.8617.7327.9526.8215.4287

297、.9222.94YOY16.0%-11.9%15.0%-8.3%-14.9%49.4%11.6%-7.9%11.1%40.2%15.5%-15.9%2.8%-1.4%-8.1%56.0%17.9%-3.2%15.9%29.4%松霖科技松霖科技234.18270.49301.30261.1443.7176.74183.5948.46352.49111.33231.83223.61252.85287.6639.7993.71156.7367.51357.74102.22YOY-0.9%15.5%11.4%-13.3%-39.9%-7.7%152.0%49.6%35.0%154.7%-2.9%-3.

298、5%13.1%13.8%-38.2%-13.1%82.7%127.8%24.4%156.9%建霖家居建霖家居333.97364.97376.33458.0645.43113.65131.12134.63424.83122.81301.83302.94323.76425.3826.66115.43124.82121.76388.67113.23YOY-0.2%9.3%3.1%21.7%-52.7%-13.2%0.7%33.7%-7.3%170.3%-10.5%0.4%6.9%31.4%-68.7%-17.6%-10.3%99.6%-8.6%324.7%浩洋股份浩洋股份196.2588.13135

299、.96356.1799.66123.5987.2755.66366.17100.56191.0378.08122.39341.8496.35121.6482.8448.95349.7997.26YOY73.0%-55.1%54.3%162.0%62.6%8.1%-31.0%2.8%2.8%0.9%77.3%-59.1%56.8%179.3%69.6%9.4%-33.1%-2.3%2.3%0.9%涛涛车业涛涛车业71.75217.86242.72206.3134.8799.5870.0076.03280.4850.8762.06189.82224.46204.7734.6594.4065.497

300、5.48270.0350.37YOY83.7%203.6%11.4%-15.0%21.7%45.2%79.0%8.7%36.0%45.9%73.6%205.9%18.2%-8.8%-31.9%45.4%营业收入规模及增速营业收入规模及增速收入收入&合同负债规模及增速合同负债规模及增速扣非归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速归母净利润及增速归母净利润及增速 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.29 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 51：人民币汇率 图表 52：CCFI 海运指数 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 53：主要原材

301、料价格变动趋势（元/吨）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 5.866.26.46.66.877.27.417-0317-0918-0318-0919-0319-0920-0320-0921-0321-0922-0322-0923-0323-0924-03人民币汇率0500025003000350040005000-0317-0918-0318-0919-0319-0920-0320-0921-0321-0922-0322-0923-0323-0924-03原材料（左轴）海运费（右轴）TPUPPTDIMDI

302、钢不锈钢2022Q443512.9011429.0319877.4215056.454218.745244.352023Q140688.5211093.4419090.9815996.724492.345189.342023Q243412.909970.1618049.1915566.134167.055210.482023Q342096.889092.5818155.4716799.224124.315139.842023Q441545.169412.1017212.1015681.454189.814874.192024Q138023.398933.8716226.6115689.5241

303、24.714975.48 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.30 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 图表 54：出口公司毛利率&归母净利率比较 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1出口出口33.93%34.29%29.06%30.31%32.12%32.28%33.31%31.91%32.53%31.86%YOY-0.36%-5.23%1.25%3.80%2.85%2.15%-0.45%2.22%-0.26%梦百合梦百合39.72%33.92%28.47%31.04%36.00%36.09%37

304、.33%42.99%38.35%38.52%YOY7.64%-5.81%-5.45%2.57%6.77%7.36%6.35%7.60%7.31%2.52%盈趣科技盈趣科技39.83%33.75%27.97%30.43%29.88%31.12%28.74%33.46%30.70%27.58%YOY-3.19%-6.09%-5.78%2.47%2.24%4.25%-4.46%-1.24%0.26%-2.30%浙江自然浙江自然39.83%40.68%38.76%36.61%37.91%33.81%30.23%30.81%33.84%38.37%YOY4.77%0.86%-1.93%-2.15%1.4

305、4%-1.45%-6.82%-8.51%-2.77%0.46%匠心家居匠心家居32.46%35.45%28.78%32.56%30.02%32.67%33.09%39.94%33.95%33.32%YOY3.48%2.99%-6.67%3.78%2.69%-0.63%0.40%1.32%1.40%3.30%永艺股份永艺股份19.98%19.18%14.64%19.34%22.45%23.68%23.00%22.41%22.88%22.11%YOY4.34%-0.80%-4.54%4.70%5.80%4.92%1.94%1.08%3.54%-0.33%恒林股份恒林股份24.97%29.49%22

306、.50%21.78%24.90%22.69%24.67%23.11%23.78%24.80%YOY5.38%4.51%-6.99%-0.72%3.60%4.32%-2.72%3.15%2.01%-0.09%乐歌股份乐歌股份46.47%46.74%39.72%34.41%37.16%34.46%37.81%36.55%36.53%31.29%YOY2.27%0.27%-7.03%-5.31%-2.57%-2.09%-2.65%13.71%2.12%-5.87%久祺股份久祺股份17.35%20.18%12.63%13.54%12.76%14.61%16.98%15.74%15.03%12.84%Y

307、OY4.03%2.83%-7.55%0.91%0.09%0.87%2.90%1.64%1.48%0.08%共创草坪共创草坪37.18%36.92%27.90%28.74%32.31%30.46%32.90%30.73%31.58%30.48%YOY3.44%-0.26%-9.02%0.84%8.22%2.61%2.68%-3.39%2.84%-1.83%嘉益股份嘉益股份34.99%35.64%28.73%34.26%37.00%39.88%40.01%43.75%40.72%38.70%YOY0.02%0.65%-6.91%5.53%10.20%7.95%4.92%5.49%6.46%1.70

308、%家联科技家联科技24.13%26.13%18.02%22.24%19.17%17.00%20.21%20.35%19.23%19.33%YOY6.12%1.99%-8.11%4.22%1.00%-6.35%-2.73%-3.48%-3.01%0.15%哈尔斯哈尔斯29.82%26.66%26.13%29.24%26.83%30.73%35.19%29.45%31.20%27.42%YOY-1.79%-3.16%-0.53%3.11%2.28%1.94%6.82%-6.39%1.96%0.59%玉马遮阳玉马遮阳46.29%46.58%43.57%41.66%39.20%40.16%42.97%

309、39.61%40.55%39.41%YOY2.39%0.29%-3.01%-1.92%-2.34%-0.49%0.59%-2.41%-1.11%0.21%海象新材海象新材33.05%29.75%16.75%22.05%30.12%33.07%24.94%4.43%24.44%23.28%YOY4.19%-3.31%-13.00%5.30%14.80%12.62%2.93%-25.43%2.40%-6.84%麒盛科技麒盛科技39.30%38.01%35.47%31.61%35.74%31.49%38.01%41.96%36.68%32.86%YOY4.28%-1.29%-2.54%-3.86%0

310、.86%2.39%8.46%9.09%5.07%-2.88%致欧科技致欧科技55.80%37.92%32.64%31.65%36.78%36.02%37.70%35.17%36.32%36.00%YOY-0.68%-17.88%-5.28%-0.99%5.41%4.42%7.03%2.21%4.67%-0.78%西大门西大门39.36%40.39%37.00%34.31%36.51%39.42%39.52%38.82%38.73%39.95%YOY1.96%1.03%-3.39%-2.70%2.72%5.45%8.33%0.52%4.42%3.44%松霖科技松霖科技34.78%34.55%29

311、.54%30.79%33.53%34.91%36.39%34.89%35.02%35.54%YOY2.90%-0.23%-5.01%1.24%4.49%5.16%5.01%1.42%4.24%2.00%建霖家居建霖家居29.46%26.93%22.76%24.28%23.16%24.66%27.27%27.67%25.97%27.05%YOY0.94%-2.53%-4.17%1.52%0.44%0.62%1.75%2.41%1.69%3.88%浩洋股份浩洋股份48.19%46.06%45.29%50.18%51.65%49.75%51.60%46.64%49.96%52.66%YOY5.64%

312、-2.12%-0.78%4.90%3.23%-3.01%0.27%-0.53%-0.22%1.01%涛涛车业涛涛车业42.51%35.13%32.97%35.75%41.35%41.23%41.01%31.57%37.60%37.47%YOY-3.52%-7.38%-2.16%2.78%8.35%9.02%4.15%-7.68%1.85%-3.88%出口出口13.51%14.19%11.29%12.78%13.31%14.99%12.24%7.56%12.31%11.54%YOY-0.68%-2.90%1.49%2.76%-0.54%-2.16%-2.10%-0.47%-1.78%梦百合梦百合

313、9.75%5.80%-3.39%0.52%0.99%4.25%0.72%-0.28%1.34%1.09%YOY3.65%-3.96%-9.18%3.90%-0.45%1.53%-0.04%2.66%0.82%0.10%盈趣科技盈趣科技25.25%19.30%15.48%15.96%9.20%12.66%11.67%13.00%11.67%7.28%YOY-4.03%-5.95%-3.82%0.48%-2.83%-6.22%-6.16%-3.09%-4.29%-1.92%浙江自然浙江自然24.11%27.44%26.06%22.52%27.97%18.38%9.31%-1.96%15.87%14

314、.14%YOY8.05%3.34%-1.39%-3.54%2.23%-10.85%-5.56%-11.60%-6.65%-13.83%匠心家居匠心家居9.61%15.60%15.50%22.84%17.90%24.08%23.83%18.18%21.20%21.64%YOY-2.93%5.98%-0.09%7.34%2.65%-7.82%-1.98%-3.67%-1.64%3.74%永艺股份永艺股份7.40%6.77%3.89%8.27%7.42%10.75%7.18%8.35%8.42%4.98%YOY3.09%-0.63%-2.88%4.37%2.74%3.33%-8.01%2.55%0.

315、15%-2.44%恒林股份恒林股份8.38%7.66%5.84%5.42%4.62%9.44%4.86%-4.25%3.21%4.36%YOY1.01%-0.72%-1.81%-0.43%-0.57%0.54%-0.15%-7.33%-2.21%-0.26%乐歌股份乐歌股份6.44%11.19%6.43%6.82%49.86%5.24%7.30%9.61%16.24%7.12%YOY0.36%4.75%-4.75%0.39%47.50%-9.09%3.65%2.87%9.42%-42.74%久祺股份久祺股份5.68%6.86%5.53%7.06%2.85%7.11%8.25%2.40%5.31

316、%4.06%YOY2.84%1.18%-1.33%1.53%-2.64%-2.95%-2.00%-0.38%-1.76%1.21%共创草坪共创草坪18.32%22.21%16.52%18.09%16.76%18.66%19.48%14.49%17.52%17.61%YOY1.99%3.89%-5.69%1.57%4.24%-0.80%-3.33%-3.47%-0.57%0.85%嘉益股份嘉益股份17.75%18.23%14.03%21.59%21.92%26.75%26.21%28.93%26.59%24.88%YOY-3.82%0.48%-4.20%7.56%3.89%7.30%4.80%4

317、.26%5.00%2.95%家联科技家联科技7.33%11.14%5.77%9.07%5.59%6.08%3.88%-3.59%2.64%8.69%YOY6.22%3.81%-5.37%3.30%0.13%-3.84%-7.11%-12.36%-6.43%3.09%哈尔斯哈尔斯3.07%-1.90%5.67%8.48%0.99%7.31%13.96%13.81%10.38%5.48%YOY-2.47%-4.97%7.57%2.81%-4.46%-5.88%5.16%8.95%1.90%4.49%玉马遮阳玉马遮阳28.45%28.06%26.97%28.66%20.72%26.37%27.06%

318、24.43%24.89%23.08%YOY3.32%-0.38%-1.10%1.69%-2.90%-4.55%-5.86%-1.71%-3.77%2.37%海象新材海象新材16.11%15.38%5.39%11.23%15.52%22.75%-11.96%-27.18%2.85%3.64%YOY4.68%-0.72%-9.99%5.84%11.26%12.39%-24.32%-44.42%-8.38%-11.87%麒盛科技麒盛科技15.61%12.10%12.04%0.96%3.43%11.84%7.52%2.66%6.63%5.94%YOY3.37%-3.51%-0.06%-11.07%-4

319、.12%5.83%-2.67%28.25%5.67%2.51%致欧科技致欧科技4.64%9.58%4.02%4.58%6.89%7.16%6.74%6.52%6.80%5.46%YOY2.10%4.93%-5.56%0.57%3.29%2.89%2.08%0.63%2.21%-1.43%西大门西大门21.62%21.97%19.23%16.44%13.94%20.15%15.74%8.22%14.30%14.14%YOY2.13%0.35%-2.74%-2.79%-3.26%1.53%-2.06%-4.26%-2.14%0.19%松霖科技松霖科技13.47%13.29%10.12%8.21%7

320、.23%9.71%22.99%6.14%11.81%16.35%YOY0.04%-0.18%-3.17%-1.91%-1.94%0.66%13.58%1.47%3.60%9.12%建霖家居建霖家居9.84%9.52%7.99%10.94%5.62%10.59%10.85%10.82%9.80%10.65%YOY0.36%-0.33%-1.53%2.96%-2.82%-0.20%-2.31%-1.10%-1.14%5.03%浩洋股份浩洋股份23.22%22.05%21.99%29.13%30.18%32.62%28.92%18.92%28.06%31.90%YOY6.70%-1.17%-0.05

321、%7.13%3.74%-1.08%-6.37%0.47%-1.07%1.72%涛涛车业涛涛车业9.55%15.72%12.03%11.68%10.00%22.84%12.46%9.53%13.08%9.79%YOY3.21%6.18%-3.69%-0.35%2.19%5.97%3.38%-2.93%1.40%-0.21%归母净利率归母净利率毛利率毛利率 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.31 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 6 消费：复苏延续分化，关注结构性成长消费：复苏延续分化，关注结构性成长 消费整体平稳，细分赛道分化。消费整体平稳，细分赛道分化。根据国家统计局数据，

322、23Q4/24Q1 我国社会消费品零售总额累计同比+8.3%/+4.7%，其中限额以上批发零售业日用品类零售额、办公用品零售额、家具零售额等同比-0.2%/+0.7%、-4.3%/-8.0%、-4.3%/+3.0%。下游消费内生动力仍不足、总体延续弱复苏，总量扩张逻辑趋弱下建议关注结构性成长机会。当前消费结构呈现以下特征：1）消费理性化：消费者购物理念趋于理性，性价比成为重要考量因素，国货品牌（瑞尔瑞尔特、宠食龙头、镜片龙头明月特、宠食龙头、镜片龙头明月&康耐特、公牛集团康耐特、公牛集团等）依托高性价比优势加速突围。2）渠道结构变化：抖音、小红书等新兴平台红利凸显，流量分配算法快速迭代下新锐国

323、货品牌（自由点、瑞尔特、宠食龙头、舒客自由点、瑞尔特、宠食龙头、舒客等）有望实现弯道超车。3）悦己消费兴起：伴随消费观念升级与 Z 世代崛起，悦己消费逐步兴起，消费者对智能化、大健康、情感消费等方面的需求逐步增长，细分赛道（自由点、宠食龙头、公牛轨自由点、宠食龙头、公牛轨道插道插&无主灯、九木杂物社无主灯、九木杂物社等）实现快速发展。图表 55：社会消费品累计零售额及同比（亿元，%）图表 56：日用品类累计零售额及同比（亿元，%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 图表 57：文化办公用品累计零售额及同比（亿元，%）图表 58：家具累计零售额及同比（亿元，%

324、）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所-30-20-05000002000002500003000003500004000004500005000-----------112024-02社会消费品零售总额:累计值社会消费品零售总额:累计

325、同比-10-50554000400050006000700080------------112024-02零售额:日用品类:累计值（亿元，左轴）零售额:日用品类:累计同比-20-50050002500

326、300035004000450050------------112024-02零售额:文化办公用品类:累计值（亿元，左轴）零售额:文化办公用品类:累计同比-40-200204060800500025--112019

327、-----------02零售额:家具类:累计值（亿元，左轴）零售额:家具类:累计同比 2024 年 05 月 11 日 P.32 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 关注业绩驱动，重视超预期延续性。关注业绩驱动，重视超预期延续性。通过对消费板块 2023 年及 24Q1 业绩梳理归因，建议关注三大布局方向：1）竞争力突出、

328、持续强势：公牛集团公牛集团产品&渠道&供应链&管理能力卓越，通过产品矩阵拓展&渠道业态升级&供应链能力深化，传统业务稳步增长，结构升级、新业务多点开花，战略升级稳步推进；乖宝宠物乖宝宠物主粮单品塑造能力&精准营销能力领先，份额稳步提升，品牌建设突出，高端化逻辑持续兑现，驱动单价&盈利持续上行。2）产品&渠道逻辑变革加强：百亚股份百亚股份三大核心逻辑加强兑现，盈利质量拐点有望来临，24Q1 业绩超预期的底层逻辑为份额加速提升、产品结构升级驱动毛利率持续改善、品牌势能向上同时消费者复购提升，从成长周期角度，公司份额已支撑品牌势能释放，进入份额提升且利润增长逐步好于收入的阶段，业绩有望持续兑现。3）

329、业绩反转：晨光股份晨光股份传统核心业务延续恢复，产品端调结构、扩品类，渠道端聚焦单店质量提升，电商渠道持续发力，九木模式初获成功；倍加洁倍加洁牙刷、湿巾代工业务重回稳健增长、盈利修复，牙线签&牙线单品塑造成功，牙膏增量贡献有望显现，善恩康客户拓展顺利、2024Q2 开始并表、薇美姿旺季来临，内生外延共驱成长；此外，齐心集团齐心集团B2B 业务持续扩张、盈利盈利表现稳健，云视频业务持续收缩，豪悦护理豪悦护理新产品持续扩张、份额提升对冲新生儿数量下滑压力、自有品牌持续放量。细分赛道来看，文具行业温和复苏、动销稳健，纸巾行业产品策略分化、23Q4&24Q1 成本受益于 2023 年浆价回落，卫生巾行

330、业持续提价、新品迭出，镜片行业竞争渐显、功能性占比提升趋势延续，宠物海外代工持续修复、盈利超预期，自主品牌延续高增；公司层面，龙头 持续凸显，通过产品&渠道结构优化、培育新增长点，实现超越行业的增长。图表 59：轻工消费行业主要公司收入及利润（百万元，%）资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 2002223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q21202223Q123Q223Q323Q4202324Q1公牛集团公牛集团10040.4410051.1312384.9214081.373334.144258.294014.404087.9315694.

331、763802.7910170.4710384.8712822.9214513.034199.974923.194591.534616.4216223.255048.10YOY10.8%0.1%23.2%13.7%8.3%13.3%10.4%13.3%11.5%14.1%10.7%2.1%23.5%13.2%36.4%18.9%11.4%14.3%11.8%20.2%晨光股份晨光股份11141.1013137.7517607.4019996.324881.605079.165899.017491.5423351.305485.3811347.8613251.8517753.9920078.064

332、969.895149.196003.647597.5823457.345609.12YOY30.5%17.9%34.0%13.6%15.4%20.8%11.4%19.5%16.8%12.4%30.7%16.8%34.0%13.1%17.5%19.4%10.6%19.7%16.8%12.9%齐心集团齐心集团5981.278009.338236.348629.141910.732542.343306.673339.1211098.852190.756081.418065.268325.658699.911979.502665.543503.313394.1211153.862418.16YOY41

333、.0%33.9%2.8%4.8%-11.0%20.3%33.4%76.8%28.6%14.7%39.7%32.6%3.2%4.5%-7.8%22.1%29.1%73.2%28.2%22.2%中顺洁柔中顺洁柔6634.917823.539149.878569.692060.542624.542138.182977.699800.951845.206777.397960.869314.238666.282111.522680.392199.883021.879845.131889.49YOY16.8%17.9%17.0%-6.3%9.4%5.7%22.4%21.3%14.4%-10.5%18.1%17.5%17.0%-7.0%12.1%5.7%20.0%18.4%13.6%-10.5%百亚股份百亚股份1149.411250.751463.061612.14522.66427.22526.256