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俄铝--EN--2024_04. SMM Conference_FINAL_sent_15.04.2024_IS.pdf

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俄铝--EN--2024_04. SMM Conference_FINAL_sent_15.04.2024_IS.pdf

1、Aluminium market outlookInga SimonenkoRusal Marketing GmbHMarket Intelligence and Commercial Sustainability DirectorSeeking new horizons:sources of the growth in a challenging market environment2024 SMM(19th)Aluminium Industry ConferenceApril 24-26,2024 Chongqing,ChinaUnderstanding Aluminium Demand

2、Dynamics in Market Complexity Forecast vs RealityGLOBAL PRIMARY ALUMINIUM DEMAND43.139.940.340.440.942.834.331.129.930.729.327.577.471.070.171.270.270.3Oct-18Oct-19Oct-20Oct-21Oct-22Actual2023Ex-ChinaChinaDate of the given forecast for 2023In million tonnesSource:CRU,IHS/Platts,BloombergNEF,Statista

3、,Global Data Energy,UC Rusal analysisBEV SALES2017Growing steadily in the next few years,from the record 700,000 seen in 2016 to 3 million by 2021.forecast2021fact4.8Mio BEV sold worldwide2023fact9.9Mio BEV sold worldwideGLOBAL LCV PRODUCTION107.489.991.887.990.1Oct-17Nov-20May-21May-22Actual 2023Da

4、te of the given forecast for 2023In million vehiclesGLOBAL PV INSTALLATION2017Global PV capacity is expected to reach 969 GW by 2025forecast2022factGlobal cumulative solar PV capacity amounted to 1,177 GW1,177 GW2023factGlobal cumulative solar PV capacity amounted to 1,620 GW1,620 GW2Growth of globa

5、l primary aluminium market slowed down amid deep demand contraction in the World ex-ChinaCHINAWORLD EX-CHINA27.4MtLowest level since 2015-3.7%+4.9%Dynamics in 20231.6SuplusDynamics in 202342.8MtGrowth rate slowsExcept pandemic 20201.3Deficit32023Only two sectors of end-use demand were growing in 202

6、34GROWTHSTAGNATIONElectricity generation&distributionAutomotivePackagingConstructionMachinery and equipment GLOBAL ALUMINIUM DEMAND GROWTH IN 2023 BY END-USE SECTORIn million tones+1.5%052202320242030TXDXElectricity grid expansion will increase aluminium consumption5GLOBAL GRID INVESTMENT

7、In billion US dollars Green energy transition to drive up electricity grid extension and upgradeGrid length increase aims at achieving sustained and resilient electricity supply system incorporating renewable energy additional grid increaseCAGR2024-2030Sources:IEA(2022),World Energy Outlook 2022.(ht

8、tps:/www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022).DX=distribution;TX=transmissionGRID FOR REPLACEMENT IN 202250 AND NEW LINES TO BUILDin million km9%28%Source:EIA3253363263332368200020420650200230fRenewable energy is the

9、fastest segment of aluminium demand growth6Sources:IEA Renewable electricity 2023,CPIA,CNIA,UC Rusal estimatesSOLAR PV NET-CAPACITY ADDITIONSSolar PV will account for more than 50%of new renewable additions to 2030Main case,GW Today,Chinas share in all solar panels manufacturing stages of solar pane

10、ls(such as polysilicon,ingots,wafers,cells and modules)exceeds 80%The country is home to the worlds top-10 suppliers of solar PV manufacturing equipmentCHINAS DOMINANCE IN THE SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC VALUE CHAINCHINAS PV MODULES PRODUCTION AND EXPORTIn GWof aluminium profiles were used for the production

11、 of PV modules in China in 2023,and it may grow up to 4Mt in 20243.4MtSolar PV is the fastest growing segment of aluminium demand6.4%CAGR55454767686869999228928949949960060020002220232024fExportProduction1.02.02.84.30.81.61.72.34.87.79.91.32

12、.12.33.26.810.514.27EV sales continue to grow at double digits,share of BEV slightly decreasedmillion unitsLCV SALESLCV SALESGLOBAL MARKETGLOBAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES CROSSED 14 MILLION IN 2023+9%1.3%2.2%2.5%4.2%8.3%13.0%15.8%20020202120222023Share in global sales of light vehiclesSource

13、:Ducker Frontier 2023;ev-;CRU,IHS/Platts,UC Rusal analysis+35%2023EV SALESEV SALESGLOBAL MARKETN.AMERICAN.AMERICAINCREMENTAL ALUMINIUM CONTENT IN THE CAR 2022-2030+51kgEUROPEEUROPEINCREMENTAL ALUMINIUM CONTENT IN THE CAR 2022-2030+25kgGrowth of SUV share drives up an average vehicle weight8Global sa

14、les of SUVs increased from 22%of all light-duty vehicles in 2005 to 51%in 2022.GLOBAL VEHICLE WEIGHT DYNAMICSAll vehicles,excluding EVsAll vehiclesSource:www.globalfueleconomy.org“TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL VEHICLE FLEET 2023.MANAGING THE SUV SHIFT AND THE EV TRANSITION”More lightweight solutions is requi

15、red to meet GHG emissions reduction targetsGLOBAL LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE SALES BY SEGMENTEV penetration is restricted by availability of charging infrastructure9Sources:https:/sepapower.org/,https:/www.iea.org,Siemens“Financing decarbonization:the e-Charging Infrastructure Investment Challenge,2023”ACAC

16、SLOW4kgDCDCFAST40kgAverage aluminium content in a Average aluminium content in a charging station(housing,cables)charging station(housing,cables)1.0MioCHARGING POINTS INSTALLATIONAt the end of 2022,there were 2.7 million public charging points worldwide,more than 900 000 of which were installed in 2

17、022,55%increase on 2021 stock,and comparable to the pre-pandemic growth rate of 50%between 2015 and 2019.30KtOF ALUMINIUMPublic EV Charging Cant Support Growing FleetChina is in deep property crisis102020Beijing Cracked down on developers high reliance on debt for growth2021Evergrande defaulted on d

18、ebtSymbol of Chinas property crisis 2022Over 40 listed real estate companies defaulted2023Evergrande went bankruptOwe$390 billion,left 1.5 million home buyers with unfinished homes2024More supporting policies are needed to stabilize the property marketCan China property market be revived?11.012.013.

19、214.114.813.311.0222023CHINA REAL-ESTATE INVESTMENTIn trillion RMBReal-estate investment back to the 2017 level 1trn yuan special bondsThree-engineering projects Encourage house purchasesSupport cash-strapped developerFloor space newly started LOW NEW STARTED&UNDER CONSTRUCTION

20、 FLOOR SPACES DRAGGING DOWN ALUMINIUM CONSUMPTION Floor space under construction 953Million m2Back to 2007level8,384Million m2Back to 2018level2023Real estate construction may drag down aluminium consumption by roughly 700Kt in 2024,which partially will be offset by Infrastructures-700Kt3.33.33.03.3

21、3.53.53.84.04.72.32.32.12.62.62.02.02.12.41.91.81.71.81.91.51.61.61.91.31.21.11.31.31.21.31.41.68.88.78.09.19.28.38.69.110.62002120222023 2024f 2025f2028fOthersN.AmericaEuropeAsiaex.China4.9%6.1%4.5%5.5%5.3%ALUMINIUM CONSUMPTION IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR EX-CHINAIn million tonnesTHE KEY IMPA

22、CTING FACTORSSource:CRU,Oxford Exonomics,UC Rusal analysisConstruction activities outside-China bottomed out in 2023CAGR2025-2028High inflationHigh inflationHigh interest rateHigh interest rateReduction of consumer Reduction of consumer spending in investment goodsspending in investment goodsIncreas

23、ed projects costsIncreased projects costs5.96.36.47.17.46.87.07.42002242025Source:CSR reports and GRI indexes,CRU Flat Rolled Products Outlook,UC Rusal analysisALUMINIUMUSAGE BY LARGESTCAN-MAKERSIn million tonnesGLOBAL CAN-STOCKS SHIPMENTSAluminium cans demand recovers,back to

24、the long-term growth trajectory2.01.10.70.4BallCorporation(2022)CrownHoldings(2022)ArdaghGroup(2022)Canpack(2021)60%Of global can-stocks demand is accumulated by four can-making companiesIn million tonnes-8.5%+3.5%+5.4%10.8gr50=improvement since previous monthIn March 2024,the pace of expansion in w

25、orldwide manufacturing output surged to its highest level since June 2022Source:https:/ PMI IN MARCH 2024The expectations for 202419GDP GROWTHVEHICLE PRODUCTIONCLEAN ENERGY SUPPLY CHAIN INVESTMENTGLOBAL CONSTRUCTIONPRIMARY ALUMINIUM SUPPLYPRIMARY ALUMINIUM DEMANDPRIMARY ALUMINIUM MARKET BALANCEHEADL

26、INE INFLATIONEurozoneUSAChina+0.6%+2.1%+4.7%EurozoneUSAChina2.6%2.2%1.0%ChinaRoWGlobal2.3%-1.6%0%X1.7HousingNon-housingInfrastructure-1.6%+1.3%+3.6%Sources:Global Construction Perspectives(Jan 2024),IHS&Platts(Mar 2024),BloombergNEF(Jan 2024),OECD Economic Outlook Feb 2024,WEF,CRU Aluminium market O

27、utlook,UC Rusal analysisChinaRoWGlobal+3.5%+2.5%+3.0%ChinaRoWGlobal+2.2%+1.0%+1.7%ChinaRoWGlobal market is in deficit-1.8Mt+1.5Mt-0.3MtIn valueRUSAL:committed to sustainability and leading in low-carbon aluminium(LCA)20LCA PRODUCERNET ZERO18 sites certifiedto both ASI standardsCDP A-EcoVadis Silver

28、ratingESG CERTIFICATIONBrand with average carbon footprint of2.3 tn CO2Scope 1&2 6.1 th CO2 Full scopeLEADING PERFORMANCE99%of aluminium produced with clean renewable energyHYDRO POWEREDApplied to the entire industry,inert anode tech would save 100mln tCO2 eq/yINERT ANODEOffer primary billets with r

29、ecycling content pilots at KUBAL and VGAZ.Offer Foundry alloys with recycling contentRECYCLINGExternally verified carbon footprint/energy source statements,traceable to the individual smelterTRANSPARENCY&COMPARABILITY Worlds leading producer of low-carbon aluminiumRUSAL&En+Group have ambitions to be

30、come net-zero by 2050GREEN LOGISTICSLMEpassportSustainability disclosure via digital LMEpassportImplement new low-carbon technologies for the transportation of raw materials and aluminium productsMarket Intelligence DepartmentMARKETINTELLIGENCEDEPARTMENTFor all questions and responses please contact us via email:MIThank you!

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