1、CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS and TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESWhile ABS uses reasonable efforts to accurately describe and update the information in this publication,ABS makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy,currency or completeness.ABS assumes no liability or responsibility for

2、any errors or omissions in the content of this publication.To the extent permitted by applicable law,everything in this publication is provided without warranty of any kind,either express or implied,including,but not limited to,the implied warranties of merchantability,fitness for a particular purpo

3、se,or non-infringement.In no event will ABS be liable for any damages whatsoever,including special,indirect,consequential or incidental damages or damages for loss of profits,revenue,or use,whether brought in contract or tort,arising out of or connected with this publication or the use or reliance u

4、pon any of the content or any information contained herein.Section 1 Introduction .21.1 Regulatory Updates.21.2 Publication Overview.10Section 2 Energy Transition Outlook .132.1 Introduction.132.2 Long-Term Energy Forecasts.132.3 Cargo Demand and Fuel Consumption.182.4 Geopolitical Impacts to Mariti

5、me Decarbonization.332.5 Fuel Mix Forecast.36Section 3 Market Outlook and Ecosystem Capacity .403.1.Orderbook Status .403.2.Retrofit Status and Outlook.523.3.Shipyard Capacity.57Section 4 Fuel Pathways and Technologies .654.1.Introduction.654.2.Alternative Fuel Pathways.654.3.Fuel Pathways Performan

6、ce.774.4.Further Insights into Carbon Neutral Fuels .834.5.EETs Uptake Rate .884.6.Alternative Fuels and the Human Element.914.7 Appendix.97Section 5 Key Transformation Technologies .985.1.Introduction.985.2.Onboard Carbon Capture and Storage(OCCS)Systems.985.3.Wind Assisted Propulsion.1095.4.Beyond

7、 the Engine.115Section 6 Offshore Industry Insights .1276.1 Introduction.1276.2 Offshore Units Market Updates.1296.3 Emerging Offshore Value Chains.1346.4 Biodiversity and Ecosystem Impacts.137Section 7 Conclusion and Key Takeaways .1402|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMA

8、TIONAL TECHNOLOGIESSECTION 1The maritime industry is currently undergoing an energy transition,which is being driven by the imperative to mitigate climate change and an ever-changing regulatory environment.An unprecedented transition from conventional fossil fuels to alternative energy sources and t

9、he implementation of cutting-edge technologies define the sectors endeavors.A number of initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions have been implemented or are in the process of being implemented in accordance with the revised GHG Strategy of the International Maritime Organization(I

10、MO).Furthermore,ongoing developments of supplementary measures will support regional or national objectives.The necessity for decarbonization is driven by the numerous statutory requirements enforced on the industry.1.1 Regulatory UpdatesThe regulatory landscape governing maritime decarbonization is

11、 characterized by a complex interplay between international mandates led by the IMO and regional initiatives that seek to address the unique challenges and opportunities within specific jurisdictions.The IMOs adoption of a revised strategy in 2023 to achieve net-zero GHG emissions around 2050 marks

12、a significant commitment to leading the industry toward a more sustainable direction.This strategy not only sets ambitious targets but also outlines a series of short-,mid-and long-term measures designed to facilitate the transition to low-carbon practices.This target requires a paradigm shift in op

13、erational,technological and fuel utilization across the sector.Moreover,the regional regulatory landscape is evolving,with entities like the European Union(EU)integrating maritime emissions into its Emissions Trading System(ETS),and the United States focusing on renewable energy and clean technologi

14、es.These regulatory frameworks,while distinct in their approaches,underline a global consensus toward a sustainable maritime future.The path to decarbonization,however,contains several challenges,including technological constraints,the need for significant investments,and the global nature of mariti

15、me operations that demands cohesive international regulatory frameworks.The introduction of novel propulsion methods and alternative fuels strategies stands at the forefront of this transition.However,the industrys journey is also marked by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges that could im

16、pact operational and regulatory trends.As we look through 2024 and beyond,understanding the connection between current and future regulatory landscapes and their impact on maritime decarbonization becomes increasingly important.SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION|31.1.1 IMO Latest Developments:MEPC 81 The IMO Ma

17、rine Environment Protection Committee(MEPC)held its 81st session from March 18 to 22,2024,and included a program of regulatory developments that will shape the maritime sector for years to come.Key to the IMOs strategy are the indicative checkpoints set for 2030 and 2040,designed to ensure that the

18、maritime industry is on track to meet its 2050 emissions reduction target.These checkpoints highlight the necessity of rapid adoption of zero or near-zero GHG emission technologies and fuels,alongside significant improvements in energy efficiency onboard vessels.The strategy also highlights the role

19、 of mid-term measures,including carbon pricing and GHG fuel standards,which are critical to creating the economic and regulatory incentives that the industry needs in order to invest in cleaner alternatives.During the period between MEPC 80 and 81,the Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of GHG

20、 Emissions from Ships(ISWG-GHG)worked on further developing:a.The candidate mid-term measures.b.The life cycle GHG assessment(LCA)framework.c.Consider proposals related to onboard carbon dioxide(CO2)capture.Further consideration of the development of candidate mid-term measure(s)The MEPC is advancin

21、g in accordance with the established work plan for the development of mid-term measures,anticipating the results of the Comprehensive Impact Assessment(CIA)set to be unveiled during MEPC 82(September 2024).This assessment aims to estimate the impact of the measures currently under consideration with

22、 particular attention paid to the needs of developing countries,especially Small Island Developing States(SIDS)and Least Developed Countries(LDCs).The following eight candidate mid-term measures are currently considered:1.GHG Fuel Standard(GFS)with its Flexibility Compliance Mechanism as the technic

23、al element,in combination with a GHG pricing mechanism covering all GHG emissions as the economic element.2.International Maritime Sustainable Fuels and Fund(IMSF&F)Mechanism,with technical elements and economic elements integrated into a single measure.3.Feebate Mechanism,developed as an economic e

24、lement separately from a technical element and comprising of a mandatory contribution on GHG emissions and reward for zero emission vessels by the Zero Emission Shipping Fund(ZESF),to be complemented by the GFS as technical element.4.Universal mandatory GHG levy as economic measure,acting in combina

25、tion with a simplified Global GFS,as technical measure.5.Simplified Global GFS with an energy pooling compliance mechanism,to be developed as a separate technical measure together with a separate maritime GHG emissions pricing mechanism.6.ZESF and Fund and Reward(Feebate)mechanism to be adopted as a

26、 separate maritime GHG emissions pricing mechanism as economic measure,in addition to a Global GFS as technical measure.7.Green Balance Mechanism,designed to work as part of an integrated measure or incorporated into complementary,but separate technical and economic measures.8.Maritime GHG Pricing M

27、echanism as a direct per-tonne-of-CO2-equivalent regulatory charge on the Tank-to-Wake(TtW)GHG emissions reported by each ship,determined by adjusting a universal GHG price signal according to each fuel type and pathways Well-to-Wake(WtW)emissions profile.Table 1.1 presents the different mid-term me

28、asures currently under consideration by the IMO.4|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESProposals for Mid-Term MeasuresDescriptionTechnical MeasureEconomic MeasureGHG Fuel Standard(GFS)with its Flexibility Compliance MechanismIncentivizes the uptake of sust

29、ainable low-and zero-carbon fuels,offering flexibility mechanisms such as rewarding of overcompliance for early movers via Surplus Reward Units(SRUs)and alternative compliance options such as GFS Remedial Units(GRUs).XInternational Maritime Sustainable Fuels and Fund(IMSF&F)mechanismAims at the prom

30、otion of sustainable marine fuels by setting up an annual GHG fuel intensity target for shipping,while providing flexible compliance approaches(pooling,banking and fund contribution/reward).XXFeebate MechanismComprises of a mandatory contribution on GHG emissions and reward for zero emission vessels

31、 by the ZESF,to be complemented by the GFS as technical element.XUniversal mandatory GHG levyA mandatory levy on all GHG emissions from international shipping will address the price differential between business-as-usual emission-based technology options,including fuels and decarbonize alternatives.

32、XSimplified Global GFS with an energy pooling compliance mechanismA performance standard,independent of fuel type,which includes a voluntary energy pooling compliance mechanism and may help increase the production and uptake of all types of low-,near-zero and zero-GHG fuels.XZero Emission Shipping F

33、und(ZESF)Funds collected from mandatory contributions by ships per tonne of CO2 equivalent emitted will be utilized to provide rewards to ships using eligible zero/near-zero GHG fuels through a“feebate”mechanism narrowing the cost gap with conventional fuels.XGreen Balance MechanismUses a cost balan

34、cing approach to reconcile emissions reductions with economic realities.It can be fully integrated with a GHG fuel-intensity standard.XMaritime GHG Pricing Mechanism A direct per-tonne-of CO2 equivalent regulatory charge on the TtW GHG emissions reported by each ship,determined by adjusting a univer

35、sal GHG price signal according to each fuel type and pathways WtW emissions profile.XTable 1.1:Mid-term measures currently under consideration.SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION|5The Working Group agreed on progressing the development of the basket of measures using the following key five elements:1.Goal-based

36、marine fuel standard regulating the phased reduction of the marine fuels GHG intensity.2.Flexible compliance strategies and relevant reporting and verification requirements.3.(Other)GHG emissions pricing mechanisms.4.Revenue collection and distribution.5.Assessment of the remaining work and indicati

37、ve planning in accordance with the timelines set out in the 2023 IMO GHG Strategy(See Figure 1.1).Further development of the life cycle GHG assessment(LCA)framework The Working Group recommended to the Committee the adoption of the draft MEPC resolution on the 2024 Guidelines on life cycle GHG inten

38、sity of marine fuels(LCA Guidelines).It is clear to all stakeholders that there is still a need for continuous scientific review of the LCA Guidelines.In relation to TtW methane(CH4)and nitrous oxide(N2O)emission factors and slip values,the Working Group considered a plethora of proposals focusing,i

39、nter alia,on the different methodologies and their accuracy in quantifying ship-level methane slip and providing an overview of potential options for certification of TtW methane and nitrous oxide emissions and a default methane slip(Cslip)value from engines/energy converters.The development of a fr

40、amework for the measurement and verification of TtW emissions of methane,nitrous oxide and other GHGs along with associated engine certification issues in the context of the further development of the LCA Guidelines,is widely accepted as the next step forward.Proposals related to Onboard Carbon Capt

41、ureThe Working Group considered proposals related to onboard CO2 capture,focusing on the need for the Committee to initiate as soon as possible the study on onboard carbon capture and storage(OCCS)systems,and developing regulations covering the transportation,storage and disposal of residues and emi

42、ssions these systems could produce.Following consideration,the Group noted the broad support to further continue consideration of proposals related to onboard CO2 capture and,in this regard,invited the Committee to instruct the Working Group of Air Pollution and Energy Efficiency to develop a work p

43、lan for the development of a regulatory framework for the use of onboard CO2 capture with the exception of matters related to accounting of CO2 captured and the consideration of system boundaries of the LCA Guidelines in relation to onboard CO2 capture that should be considered in the context of fur

44、ther development of the LCA Guidelines.20242028MEPC 82Autumn2024MEPC 83Spring 2025ExtraordinaryMEPCAutumn2025MEPC 84Spring 2026MEPC 85Autumn2026Early2027Final report on mid-term measures candidatesApproval of measures and review of the short-term measures to be completed by January 1,2026Adoption of

45、 measuresFollow-ups and preparations for the entry into force of measures(MEPC 84 and 85)Entry into force(16 months after adoption)Figure 1.1:Timeline for the development of IMO mid-term measures.6|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES1.1.2 IMO Mid-Term Me

46、asures:The Road AheadContinuing the output from ISWG-GHG 16,the Committee considered how to advance the development of the mid-term basket of measures.The Committee agreed that the possible way forward would be to identify a common structure of the legal framework for the basket of candidate measure

47、s to advance further the work of the Organization.During discussions,several delegations supported that it would be premature to rule out any of the candidate proposals without having the outcome of the comprehensive impact assessment and that the common structure should not prejudge any future chan

48、ges or possible outcomes of further negotiations.In this regard,the Committee approved the possible outline of the“IMO Net-Zero Framework”with the possible amendments to MARPOL Annex VI,which can be used as a starting point for consolidating the different proposals into a possible common structure.T

49、he Committee agreed on establishing the Fifth GHG Expert Workshop(GHG-EW 5)on the further development of the basket of mid-term measures.During discussions,several discussions supported that the GHG-EW 5 should primarily focus on increasing understanding of the preliminary findings of the CIA for a

50、broader group of delegates than those engaged in the Steering Committee,whereas others expressed that the GHG-EW 5 should not engage in any policy negotiations but provide relevant information to the Committee and/or Steering Committee.Following consideration of all the views expressed,the Committee

51、 requested the Secretariat to organize a two-day GHG-EW 5 to facilitate the understanding of the preliminary findings of the CIA,including the modeling of revenue disbursement used as part of the assessment of impacts on States,taking into account the progress made within the Steering Committee and

52、submit its outcome to MEPC 82.SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION|71.1.3 Marine Fuel Life Cycle GuidelinesBuilding on the outcome of ISWG-GHG 16,the Committee adopted Resolution MEPC.391(81),2024 Guidelines on life cycle GHG intensity of marine fuels(2024 LCA Guidelines).The Committee agreed on the establishment

53、 of the Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection(GESAMP)Working Group on life cycle GHG intensity of marine fuels(GESAMP-LCA WG)to review scientific and technical issues.The Committee also agreed on the establishment of the LCA Correspondence Group,to furth

54、er consider“Other social and economic sustainability themes/aspects of marine fuels”as referred to in paragraph 7.1 of the 2024 LCA Guidelines for possible inclusion in the Guidelines,and submit a report to MEPC 83.1.1.4 Carbon Capture and StorageThe ISWG-GHG 16 had invited the Committee to consider

55、 the development of a work plan on the development of a regulatory framework for the use of onboard CO2 capture,with the exception of matters related to captured CO2 accounting and system boundaries of the LCA Guidelines in relation to onboard CO2 capture,which will be considered in the further deve

56、lopment of the LCA Guidelines.The Committee agreed on establishing a Correspondence Group that will further consider issues related to onboard carbon capture and develop a work plan on the development of a regulatory framework for the use of onboard carbon capture systems with the exception of matte

57、rs related to accounting of CO2 captured on board ships and submit a written report to MEPC 83.1.1.5 Other IMO MEPC 81 Developments of Interest Measurement and verification of TtW emissions of methane(CH4),nitrous oxide(N2O)and other GHGs.The Committee considered the development of a framework for t

58、he measurement and verification of TtW emissions of methane and nitrous oxide and other GHGs.The Committee agreed on continuing work on this matter intersessionally,by a Correspondence Group with the following Terms of Reference(ToRs):Consider the development of a framework for the measurement and v

59、erification of actual TtW methane and nitrous oxide emission factors and Cslip value for energy converters taking into account inter alia,standardization required regarding a test cycle approach,onboard monitoring,engine load distribution and associated measurement equipment technology and procedure

60、s.In support of the LCA Guidelines,development of a methodological framework for associated certification issues.Identification of relevant gaps in existing instruments and proposed recommendations for the development of necessary regulatory or recommendatory instruments.8|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON

61、NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESGuidance for the use of biofuels and biofuel blends The Committee considered a proposal suggesting the development of interim guidelines for the use of biofuels and biofuel blends.These guidelines contained provisions on the procurement of biofu

62、els,risk analysis and contingency measures,their proper storage and use,as also shipboard procedures,and crew familiarization.Due to insufficient support,the Committee decided to invite member States and international organizations to submit proposals relevant to the safe use of biofuels and biofuel

63、 blends to a future session of Maritime Safety Committee(MSC).Carriage of biofuels and biofuel blends by bunker vesselsThe Committee considered a proposal for the development of interim guidance on the carriage of biofuels and biofuel blends by bunker vessels,allowing for the conventional bunkering

64、vessels certified for carriage of oil fuels under MARPOL Annex I to transport biofuel blends containing up to 30 percent of biofuel by volume while also encouraging member States to establish their own national legislation for carriage requirement of biofuel blends containing more than 30 percent of

65、 biofuel by volume up to B100.1.1.6 Regional Regulatory Efforts:Navigating Through Diverse Waters toward DecarbonizationThe pursuit of maritime decarbonization is unfolding across various regions,each with its own set of strategies,challenges,and advancements.This diversity not only illustrates the

66、complexity of the task at hand but also the innovative pathways being explored around the globe.European Union:Pioneering Regulatory FrameworksThe EU has been at the forefront of integrating maritime emissions into its broader climate policy frameworks.The inclusion of maritime emissions in the EU E

67、TS marks a significant regulatory shift,aiming to incentivize emission reductions through market mechanisms.This move is complemented by the“Fit for 55”package,which seeks to reduce net GHG emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030,compared to 1990 levels.Moreover,the EUs focus on digitalization and

68、innovation within port operations exemplifies its holistic approach to decarbonization.Investments in onshore power supply,automated systems for efficient cargo handling,and initiatives for green port infrastructure are poised to significantly reduce emissions from maritime logistics.However,the cha

69、llenge remains in balancing regulatory ambitions with practical feasibility and ensuring that the maritime sector remains competitive and resilient in the face of stringent environmental standards.United States:Leveraging Innovation and PartnershipsIn the United States,the approach to maritime decar

70、bonization is characterized by a strong emphasis on technological innovation and public-private partnerships.The Maritime Administration(MARAD)plays a crucial role in fostering innovation through programs such as the Marine Highway Program,which aims to alleviate road congestion and reduce emissions

71、 by shifting freight transportation to navigable waterways.Additionally,the recent infrastructure and clean energy legislation have opened new avenues for investment in clean maritime technologies,including electrification,fuel cell technologies,and alternative fuels like LNG and hydrogen.SECTION 1

72、INTRODUCTION|9The U.S.is also witnessing a growing trend of collaborations between maritime companies,technology firms,and academic institutions to pilot and scale new decarbonization technologies.However,the fragmented nature of the U.S.regulatory landscape,with state-level initiatives such as Cali

73、fornias stringent emissions regulations,presents both opportunities and challenges for harmonizing efforts toward national decarbonization goals.Asia-Pacific:Balancing Growth with Green AmbitionsThe Asia-Pacific region,home to some of the worlds largest shipping fleets and busiest ports,is navigatin

74、g its decarbonization journey amid rapid economic growth and environmental pressures.Chinas dual commitment to peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 extends to its maritime sector,with significant investments in port electrification,LNG-fueled vessels,and solar-powere

75、d infrastructure.Similarly,Singapores Maritime and Port Authority(MPA)is spearheading initiatives to promote the use of cleaner fuels,enhance energy efficiency,and develop the worlds first green port standards.The regions approach is characterized by a blend of regulatory mandates and incentives for

76、 innovation,with countries like Japan and South Korea investing heavily in hydrogen fuel cell technology and ammonia as future maritime fuels.The challenge for the Asia-Pacific lies in aligning these ambitious technological and regulatory efforts with the global standards set by the IMO,ensuring tha

77、t regional progress contributes to worldwide decarbonization objectives.The Road Ahead:Toward a Unified Global EffortAs the maritime industry ventures into the uncharted waters of decarbonization,the diverse regional efforts underscore the importance of collaboration and knowledge sharing.The IMOs r

78、ole as a unifying global entity is pivotal in harmonizing these regional approaches,facilitating the adoption of universally accepted standards,and ensuring a level playing field.The complexity of maritime decarbonization,coupled with the sectors intrinsic link to global trade and economic developme

79、nt,necessitates a coordinated effort that respects regional nuances while striving for global environmental goals.The journey ahead is filled with challenges,from technological hurdles and financial constraints to the need for global regulatory alignment.Yet,the regional efforts underway illuminate

80、a path forward,showcasing a collective resolve to navigate toward a sustainable and low-carbon maritime future.As these initiatives evolve and intersect,the maritime industrys commitment to decarbonization becomes increasingly evident,heralding a new era of environmental stewardship and innovation o

81、n the high seas.10|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES1.2 Publication OverviewThe principal objective of this publication is to analyze the developments,obstacles and prospects encountered by the worldwide maritime industry during this energy transition

82、period.Moreover,as we approach the midpoint and conclusion of this decade and contemplate the integration of alternative fuels,this publication also evaluates the techno-economic viability of the primary fuel production routes.Section 2 delves into an analysis of the substantial changes in fuel cons

83、umption patterns,the integration of alternative energy sources,and the broader ramifications that will affect the maritime industry in the run up to 2050.Recent regulatory updates from the IMO and significant geopolitical events that have altered energy strategies and trade routes have been incorpor

84、ated into the revised forecasts.These alterations signify a more complex and dynamic environment in which traditional fossil fuel energy sources are increasingly being supplemented or replaced with emission-free alternatives,such as methanol,ammonia,and potentially hydrogen,in the coming years.This

85、section also utilizes a rigorous methodological framework that consists of the subsequent components:Quantitative forecasting:Involves using historical data and trend analysis to predict future changes in fuel usage and emissions.Qualitative insights:Leveraging ABS expertise,the data is analyzed by

86、technical experts who provide interpretation within the broader framework of technology and economic advancements.Our analysis focuses on the ramifications of recent geopolitical events on our industrys decarbonization efforts.In doing so,we have revised the projected fuel blend and explored a numbe

87、r of net-zero scenarios to ascertain the necessary conditions for the industry to achieve the IMOs 2050 objective.Section 3 presents a thorough analysis of the present and anticipated market conditions as well as the capabilities of the ecosystem.It touches explicitly on the orderbooks status and pr

88、ogress toward retrofitting to ensure regulatory compliance.Furthermore,it investigates the broader consequences for shipyards ability to assist the industry in the energy transition initiatives.As of April 2024,the worldwide shipping fleet has surpassed 109,000 vessels in number,approximating 1.6 bi

89、llion gross tons(gt)and 2.4 billion deadweight tonnage(dwt).The substantial compositional changes occurring on this enormous fleet,which is fundamental to international commerce,result from shifting market demands and regulatory pressures to reduce maritime emissions.The orderbook,which contains com

90、prehensive information regarding the construction of future ships,has experienced substantial variations.A significant surge in newbuilding contracts occurred after 2020,indicative of a recovery from historically low levels and the implementation of the new environmental regulations.The transition t

91、o alternative fuels,which has become a significant parameter of new ship orders,is a primary focus of this section.An examination of fuel-specific SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION|11contracting patterns yields valuable insights regarding the industrys strategic approach toward achieving decarbonization.Existi

92、ng vessel retrofitting is an indispensable means of compliance with new environmental regulations.Given that a mere fraction of the worldwide fleet is presently upgraded to more recent standards,the growth potential in this domain is enormous.The discourse encompasses an evaluation of the shipyards

93、capable of carrying out these retrofits,their geographical dispersion,and the technological capacities necessary to execute such intricate alterations.Critical for both new construction and retrofits,shipyard capacity has undergone substantial transformations.This section examines the historical con

94、traction and recent expansions that have occurred in the industry,with a specific emphasis on the ability of shipyards to fulfill present and future requirements.This entails conducting an analysis of the roles played by global leaders in shipbuilding to determine the geographic distribution of ship

95、yard capacity.The strategic manoeuvres of shipyards in main shipbuilding nations such as China,South Korea,and Japan and the possibility of new entrants from other regions entering the market are given particular consideration.This segment furnishes industry stakeholders with insightful projections

96、of forthcoming trends and current data,helping to facilitate well-informed decisions.These projections have been developed based on historical data,current market analysis,and anticipated technological and regulatory developments.In pursuit of the critical objective of decarbonizing the maritime sec

97、tor,Section 4 analyses the present and prospective capabilities of fuels and technologies that produce zero or nearly zero carbon emissions.This section examines two main areas of emphasis:firstly,the evaluation of different marine fuel pathways,which encompass traditional hydrocarbon-based fuels as

98、 well as alternatives such as ammonia,methanol,LNG,hydrogen,and biofuels;and secondly,the investigation of Energy Efficiency Technologies(EETs).12|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESSubsequent to examining the present condition,this section delves into a

99、 discourse concerning alternative fuel pathways and the critical significance of technology in enhancing operational efficiency and reducing emissions.It examines the WtW emissions of various fuels throughout their entire life cycle,from production to consumption.The Section examines these pathways

100、and emphasizes the technical,economic,and environmental factors that require attention.A comprehensive analysis of the primary transformative options for the maritime sector is presented in Section 5 of this publication.The primary emphasis is on the progression and implementation of unconventional,

101、alternative energy sources.This Section provides an in-depth analysis of five prominent technologies that are critical in attaining the decarbonization objectives of the industry:The investigation of OCCS technologies pertainsto the potential resolution of capturing and storing CO2 emissions in the

102、form of exhaust gases from ships.Novel EETs and the role they play in improving the performance of vessels.Fuel cells,emphasized as a critical technology,provide an environmentally friendly substitute for conventional internal combustion engines utilizing electrochemical energy production.A range of

103、 fuel cell types are examined,each of which possesses unique merits that are tailored to maritime contexts.The integration of battery energy storage systems(BESS)with internal combustion engines to produce hybrid ship propulsion systems.These configurations have the potential to substantially improv

104、e fuel efficiency,decrease operational expenses and reduce greenhouse gas emissions,rendering them well-suited for vessels that experience fluctuating power requirements.The section also explores the viability of utilizing nuclear power as an alternative energy source,specifically in large-scale mar

105、itime applications.Safety concerns and regulatory obstacles are among the challenges and benefits of implementing nuclear technology in the transport industry that are examined.Section 6 provides a comprehensive examination of the present developments,obstacles and technological breakthroughs within

106、 the offshore sector,with a specific emphasis on the sectors evolving contribution to the worldwide energy composition.In light of the global shift toward sustainable energy solutions,the offshore sector finds itself at a pivotal juncture,where it must navigate the rapid integration of renewable ene

107、rgy technologies,including offshore wind and hydrogen production,alongside conventional oil and gas operations.This section also addresses the exponential expansion of offshore wind energy,with its global capacity predicted to increase by a factor of 10 by 2030.Furthermore,it delves into the subject

108、 of biodiversity,which is deemed environmentally significant.In Section 7,the key insights from the outlook publication for this year are concisely summarized,offering a comprehensive examination of the principal developments and obstacles that impact the worldwide maritime and offshore sectors.SECT

109、ION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|13SECTION 22.1 IntroductionSignificant shifts have occurred along the decarbonization trajectory,whereas broad-scale fuel mix trends have remained unchanged since ABS 2023 Outlook.The change in emphasis toward the deliverability of targets and initiatives throughout t

110、he entire decarbonization value chain has been the most significant.While not explicitly associated with the swift decline of the worldwide geopolitical landscape in the preceding half-year,this does not appear to be unrelated.We have fully aligned our net-zero scenario with the most recent Internat

111、ional Maritime Organization(IMO)mandates,established during the Maritime Environmental Protection Committee(MEPC)meeting last summer,with the implementation of this update.These regulations develop explicit objectives for the shipping industry to fulfill,and a critical component of this publication

112、involves quantifying the level of simplicity or difficulty associated with performing so.Measures aimed at attaining net zero will inherently be diverse and multifaceted,but the precise manner in which this will transpire in the present remains uncertain.2.2 Long-Term Energy Forecasts2.2.1 IEA Forec

113、astsThe 2023 edition of the International Energy Agencys(IEA)World Energy Outlook(WEO),published in October 2023,updates the three energy transition scenarios presented in its 2022 report:the Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS),the Announced Pledges Scenario(APS),and the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scena

114、rio(NZE Scenario).Stated Policies(Figure 2.1),assumes todays policies remain in place and shows the associated trajectory.Under the new edition of Stated Policies,the IEA has moderately reduced its projections for fossil fuel demand relative to the 2022 scenario.This reflects a combination of policy

115、 shifts,lower economic growth expectations,and the ramifications of the 2022 energy crisis.Under the 2023 Stated Policies Scenario,and in contrast to previous editions of the WEO,each of the three main fossil fuels(oil,natural gas and coal)peaks in usage before 2030.Coal demand sees the largest prop

116、ortional downgrade under this scenario update,and in 2050 sits 9.5 percent lower than under the 2022 WEO.In 2050,oil demand is 4.6 percent lower than in the 2022 WEO,and natural gas demand 4.2 percent lower.Announced Pledges(Figure 2.1),assumes that all aspirational targets announced by governments

117、are met on time and in full,including their long-term net zero and energy access goals.The main change with the 2023 update is that coal demand sees an even steeper fall under the new scenario,reflecting a more accelerated reduction in coal usage in China under its 2060 net-zero emissions pledge.Cha

118、nges to projected oil and natural gas demand are limited,with both continuing to see steady reductions in demand after 2030.The underlying assumptions for the net-zero scenario are unavailable,so ABS has not included this scenario in its analysis.Under the 2023 net-zero scenario,electrification proc

119、eeds even faster than under Announced Pledges.14|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES2.2.2 Energy Model Base CaseAt a global level,it is important to recognize that over most of our projection analyses,energy demand is growing.Relative to 2023 levels,curr

120、ent base case sees global energy consumption increase by an additional 44 exajoules(EJ)(+7.6 percent)by 2030,100 EJ(+17.3 percent)by 2040,and 123 EJ(+21.4 percent)by 2050(Refer to Figure 2.2).However,beneath growth in aggregate energy demand,there are marked shifts in regional energy consumption pat

121、terns and the share of different energy carriers used to meet final demand.Looking at the world as five regions,ABS sees three key trends with regards to the distribution of future demand:1.Americas,Europe/Russia:stable overall demand alongside a steady decline in their global share of final energy

122、demand.2.China,Northeast Asia:set to stabilize overall energy demand during the 2030s,peaking above 30 percent of the global share,before seeing a long-term trend decline.3.Africa,Middle East,South and Southeast Asia:will be the main regional drivers of long-term increases in global energy demand.Th

123、ese regions currently account for about 27 percent of global final energy consumption.This is forecast to rise to a combined 38 percent by 2050.Compared to an estimated share of global energy consumption of 6.9 percent in 2023,renewables in the global energy mix rise to 12.1 percent in 2030,21.7 per

124、cent in 2040 and 30.8 percent in 2050.Absolute consumption of oil and coal peaks before 2030 under the current base case,while natural gas peaks by the late-2030s.160Index 2010=0806040202002520302035204020450Stated PoliciesOil demand 2023Gas demand 2023Coal demand 2023Oil deman

125、d 2023Gas demand 2023Coal demand 2023 Announced PledgesFigure 2.1:Stated policies vs.announced pledges 2023.MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|152.2.3 Total Final Consumption Energy UseThe transport and industry sectors are the largest“users”of final energy demand,with transport accounting for a

126、round 30 percent of global final energy consumption in 2023,and industry nearly 34 percent.The shares of final energy consumption are expected to remain relatively stable over this studys forecast horizon,with an increase in transportation energy demand offsetting a slight fall in industry energy us

127、age between 2025 and 2050.Over this timeframe,transportation energy demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 0.5 percent,while industry energy demand will contract at a CAGR of-0.1 percent.A far more significant change will be seen in the types of energy consumed to meet t

128、he growing final energy demand(Figure 2.3).To take transportation as an example,this sector still overwhelmingly uses oil as its energy source.However,oils share of final transport demand has gradually dropped over the last two decades,from 95 percent in 2000 to 88 percent in 2020.Other hydrocarbons

129、,including biofuels and liquefied natural gas(LNG)/liquefied petroleum gas(LPG),have largely substituted this.However,ABS expects oil use for transportation to peak toward the end of the current decade.While electrification will be a key component in substituting oil,other energy sources such as hyd

130、rogen and associated products(e.g.,ammonia/methanol)and other hydrocarbons such as LPG will also play a significant role.2020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044204620482050250200150100050OilEJRenewablesCoalBiofuelNatural GasNuclearLPGHydrogenFigure 2.2:Total global consumption by energy

131、 carrier.0 100 200 300 400202520302035204020452050EJOil ProductsCoalNatural GasLPGRenewablesBiofuelHydrogenElectricityHeatFigure 2.3:Total global final consumption by energy source.MSI MSI16|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES2.2.4 Electricity Generation

132、Electricity demand is projected to increase over the forecast,with final demand effectively doubling from current levels by 2050 to around 160 EJ by 2050.All end-use sectors will see increasing demand,notably in industry.Still,the transportation sector will be the strongest driver of incremental ele

133、ctricity usage by the end of the forecast horizon.The transport demand accounts for relatively little final electricity consumption,which is dominated by industry and residential usage.Vehicle electrification will increase transports share of global electricity demand.By 2030,transport will account

134、for 5 percent of global electricity demand,rising to 19 percent by 2050.Electric vehicle(EV)sales increased by 31 percent year-on-year in 2023.Fully or battery electric vehicles(BEVs)comprised 9.5 million of the 13.6 million EVs sold,with plug-in hybrid vehicles(PHEVs)making up the remainder.Increas

135、ing electricity demand requires growing power generation capacity.We expect renewables to drive growth,as traditional sources,particularly coal,decline(Figure 2.4).0 100 200 300 400202520302035204020452050EJCrude OilOil ProductsCoalNatural GasNuclearRenewablesBiofuelHydrogenFigure 2.4:Electricity ge

136、neration by energy source.MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|172.2.5 Consumption by Energy Carrier Scenarios ComparedOil consumption peaks toward the end of the 2020s under the current base case.Changes to ABS oil demand outlook are relatively minor compared to our 2023 Outlook publication with

137、reduced forecasted consumption in the 2020s followed by an uplift to forecasted consumption beyond the 2030s(Figure 2.5).Above all,there is clear evidence of accelerated adoption of electric vehicles in China,which will ultimately drive a steep reduction in global oil consumption.The current base ca

138、se effectively plots a course between the IEAs Stated Policies and Announced Pledges scenarios beyond the 2030s.Compared to oil,the updated scenario projects a continued increase in global demand for natural gas through the second half of the 2030s and only a steady reduction after that.Given foreca

139、sts for continued growth in overall energy consumption,a near-term reduction in natural gas demand would require a rapid uptake of electrification,or use of non-fossil fuel energy carriers,across industry and hard-to-decarbonize sectors,evidence of which is still mixed.ABS latest projections foresee

140、 a larger role for natural gas than under the IEAs 2023 Stated Policies scenario,which sees only limited increases in natural gas demand moving forward,and a significantly greater role than under the IEAs Announced Pledges scenario,where natural gas demand by 2030 has already fallen compared to pres

141、ent-day levels(Figure 2.5).Over the longer term,the uplift to our natural gas demand forecast is driven by India and,to a lesser degree,China and Southeast Asia.Throughout the forecast horizon,natural gas demand in Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS)members is higher because of

142、fewer export opportunities.Energy security concerns,higher natural gas prices following the conflict in Ukraine in 2022,and weather-related disruptions to renewable energy production have boosted demand for coal in recent years.In line with ABS 2023 Outlook publication,the current 2024 Q1 model proj

143、ects a peak in global coal consumption by 2025.Total global consumption then falls by 11 percent by 2030,27 percent by 2040,and 49 percent in 2050.This represents a slightly slower pace of reduced consumption relative to the previous study,also starting from a higher peak given the resilience of coa

144、l demand in the past several years.This scenario update also sees an additional uplift to ABS forecast for global coal consumption over the forecast horizon to 2050.Global coal consumption is around 6 percent higher in 2030 compared to our 2023 Outlook publication,10 percent higher in 2040,and 19 pe

145、rcent higher in 2050.China and India account for most of this uplift in forecasted global coal consumption(Figure 2.5).Figure 2.5:Oil,gas and coal consumption projections.02040608020202520302035204020452050Index 2020=100Oil 2024 Q1 ModelGas 2024 Q1 ModelCoal 2024 Q1 ModelOil IEA Stated Po

146、liciesGas IEA Stated PoliciesCoal IEA Stated PoliciesGas IEA Announced PledgesOil IEA Announced PledgesCoal IEA Announced Pledges MSI18|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESCombined,coal,oil and natural gas will peak in consumption before 2030.However,the

147、level of consumption of the three major carbon carriers has increased compared to our 2023 Outlook publication projection.Figure 2.6 illustrates this point.Looking at the data at five-year intervals also exaggerates the leap in fossil fuel consumption in 2025 relative to 2020,given the fall in globa

148、l energy consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic.2.3 Cargo Demand and Fuel Consumption2.3.1 Bulk CarriersWith this Outlook publication,ABS has increased its long-term forecasts for seaborne coal trade compared to the 2023 study,although it is still anticipated that coal trade will soon reach a peak

149、 and then progressively decline.The uplift in coal trade forecast partly stems from greater-than-expected resilience in recent years,where a combination of energy security concerns,higher natural gas prices and weather-related disruptions to renewable power generation have boosted reliance on coal a

150、s a low-cost energy carrier.Figure 2.7 illustrates the coal trade forecast.Beyond the coal trade,changes in the pace and steel intensity of economic growth in China drive a near-term peak in global iron ore exports,which begin to decrease in the second half of the 2020s.While other regions,particula

151、rly South Asia,see growing steel production over this period,this is insufficient to offset reduced production in China and advanced economies.Compared to ABS 2023 Outlook publication,iron ore trade has been lowered over the longer term,in line with less optimistic economic growth forecasts for Chin

152、a.Figure 2.8 illustrates the ore trade forecast.Figure 2.6:Energy consumption by primary carbon carrier.MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|19More generally,global dry bulk trade is set to become less concentrated in a handful of major commodities,with incremental dry bulk trade growth being driv

153、en increasingly by a range of minor bulk cargoes(Figure 2.9).Some of these,especially bauxite/alumina,are strongly connected to the energy transition,while others to consider are forest products,steel products,fertilizers,and minerals.By 2050,minor bulk cargoes are expected to comprise over 50 perce

154、nt of totaldry bulk cargo trade,compared to around 32 percent in 2020.Figure 2.7:Coal trade.Figure 2.8:Ore trade.04008001,2001,600200402050MtCoal ExportsCoal Seaborn Trade04008001,2001,600200402050MtIron Ore ExportsIron Ore Seaborne Trade MSI MSI20|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEU

155、TRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESFollowing a slow start compared to the containership segment,interest in alternative propulsion options for dry bulk carriers has increased,especially for large vessels.Nevertheless,the predominant demand for dry bulk bunkers will continue to be me

156、t by fuels derived from oil until the 2040s,at which point fuels based on methanol and ammonia/hydrogen will assume larger portions.At present,the evidence is inadequate to support the notion that LNG propulsion could have a substantial impact on the dry bulk industry.In contrast to the projections

157、from the previous year,the adoption of non-oil-based fuels is anticipated to accelerate beyond 2030.The forecasted fuel mix is illustrated in Figure 2.10.Figure 2.9:Incremental dry bulk trade.Figure 2.10:Fuel mix for dry bulk carriers.-6008001,0002002520302035204020452050Mt

158、vs.Previous YearsMinor BulksGrainsCoalIron OreMt HFO EquivalentOil BasedLPGBio/e-dieselMethanolOil Based(2023 Forecast)LNGAmmonia/Hydrogen202020252030203520402045205070605040302010 0 MSI MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|212.3.2 Oil and Chemical TankersSeaborne crude oil trade is anticipated to

159、 increase compared to last years projection.On the other hand,seaborne oil products trade is anticipated to reach its highest point in the future years,after which it will gradually decline until 2050.Oil consumption is anticipated to become more concentrated in the Asia-Pacific and Africa/Middle Ea

160、st regions,while Europe and North America will experience a decline in importance.This is illustrated in Figure 2.11.Figure 2.11:Oil consumption by region.01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002020202520302035204020452050MtAsia PacificNorth AmericaEurope/RussiaAfrica/M EastLatin America MSI22|BEYOND THE HO

161、RIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESThe distinction between crude oil and oil product trade peaks is attributed to industry trends within the oil refinery sector.Peaks in oil product seaborne trade occur subsequent to those of crude oil.Additional refineries will prim

162、arily be constructed in regions that produce crude oil(specifically,the Middle East and West Africa).Conversely,closing refineries in other areas(especially Europe)will result in a heightened reliance on imported oil products.Changes in the global distribution of crude and oil product trade flows ha

163、ve had significant(and primarily positive)effects on oil tanker shipping demand since the conflict in Ukraine in 2022.An increase in seaborne chemical trade is anticipated into the late 2040s,but trade projections have decreased since publishing last years Outlook.The projected revision reflects les

164、s optimistic economic growth assumptions and is primarily driven by lower forecasts for the trade of organic chemicals.The dislocation between petrochemical-producing countries bolstered by cheap feedstock and rapidly developing nations that need petrochemicals to produce end products for export and

165、 domestic consumption,mining and agriculture will be the source of ongoing demand for chemical tankers.However,we anticipate that regional commerce and chemicals from cost-competitive countries will meet demand as new petrochemical manufacturing comes online in these consuming countries.Figure 2.12

166、illustrates the trade forecasts.As with the dry bulk segment,the past 12 months have Figure 2.12:Oil trade forecasts.0204060800,0001,5002,0002,5002002520302035204020452050Organic Chemicals,Inorganic Chemicals and Edible Oils Seaborne Trade(Mt)Crude Oil and Oil Produc

167、ts Seaborne Trade(Mt)Crude Oil Seaborne TradeOil Products Seaborne TradeChemical Cargo(Organic)Seaborne TradeChemical Cargo(Inorganic)Seaborne TradeChemical Cargo(Edible Oils)Seaborne Trade MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|23seen increased interest in and ordering newbuild vessels with dual-fu

168、el propulsion in the tanker segment.This has been seen to the greatest extent in the very large crude carrier(VLCC)segment,where,although most recent contracts have been for vessels with conventional propulsion,contracts have also been placed for LNG dual-fuel,methanol dual-fuel,and ammonia-fuel ves

169、sels.With that said,progress in adopting alternative propulsion in the tanker segment is picking up,and alternative fuels are expected to have a balanced share of the bunkering demand into the 2040s.Figure 2.13 illustrates the forecasted fuel mix.2.3.3 ContainershipsFollowing the volatility of the C

170、OVID-19 pandemic years,trends in container trade have settled into a slower rhythm,with global trade volumes shrinking in both 2022 and 2023.Adjustments to long-term forecasts are generally limited with this update,with moderately downgraded projections for global macroeconomic growth feeding into a

171、 lower forecast for global container trade(Figure 2.14).Base case continues to expect a shift in container trade geography favoring shorter-haul intra-regional trades and a more robust port handling growth in East Asia and emerging market regions relative to Europe and North America.Mt HFO Equivalen

172、tOil BasedLPGBio/e-dieselMethanolOil Based(2023 Forecast)LNGAmmonia/Hydrogen2020202520302035204020452050506040302010 0Figure 2.13:Fuel mix for oil and chemical tankers.MSI24|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESOver the forecast horizon,we have reduced the

173、 share of oil-based fuels in the containership bunkering mix,with methanol seeing an expanded role(Figure 2.15).A more comprehensive range of major liner operators have opted for methanol dual-fuel propulsion in orders over the past 12 months,even as the overall volume of new containership ordering

174、has shrunk dramatically.050203020352040204520500350400Twenty-foot Equivalent Units TEU(Million)Other Intra-RegionalMainlanesNon-Mainlane East-WestNorth-SouthIntra-AsiaFigure 2.14:Global container trade evolution.Figure 2.15:Fuel mix for containerships.20202025203020352040204520

175、50 0 10 20 30405060708090100Oil BasedLPGBio/e-dieselMethanolOil Based(2023 Forecast)LNGAmmonia/HydrogenMt HFO Equivalent MSI MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|252.3.4 LNG CarriersIn comparison to last years projections,the global natural gas consumption expectations have increased through 2050,

176、while the forecasted LNG imports have been reduced.Figures 2.16 and 2.17 illustrate the revised projections for gas consumption and LNG imports by region.Above all,this has been driven by much-reduced expectations for LNG exports from Russia and a modest downgrade to forecasted exports from the Midd

177、le East and Africa.The geography of global LNG trade will continue to change,with China and India seeing an expanded share of global LNG imports over the forecast horizon.Chinas share of global LNG imports is expected to rise to 22 percent in 2050,compared to 19 percent in 2020,while Indias share wi

178、ll increase to 12 percent in 2050 from 7 percent in 2020.Figure 2.16:Gas consumption by region.Figure 2.17:LNG imports by region.00500600700800Mt20202025203520452030204020502020202520352045203020402050Mt05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000AmericasEurasiaME/AfricaIndiaChinaOther Asia MS

179、I MSI26|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESCompared to other commodity shipping sectors,revisions of our fuel mix forecasts for the LNG sector are limited with this update compared to last years Outlook publication.There is still expected to be an increa

180、sed uptake of ammonia/hydrogen as a fuel source beyond the 2030s as environmental regulations tighten.Until then,most LNG carriers will remain LNG dual-fuel(Figure 2.18).Figure 2.18:Fuel mix for LNG carriers.2020202520302035204020452050 05 10 1520253035Mt HFO EquivalentOil BasedLNGLNG(2023 Forecast)

181、Ammonia/Hydrogen MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|272.3.5 LPG CarriersLPG is produced as a byproduct of oil and gas production and oil refining.Production and consumption of LPG are ultimately constrained by activity in the oil and gas sectors.So,the modest near-term downgrade,but longer-term

182、modest upgrade,to forecasted global LPG production tracks the changes to oil production expectations discussed in this publication(Figure 2.19).Global LPG production is expected to peak in the first half of the 2030s.Exports of LPG are closely aligned with regions accounting for the majority share o

183、f oil and gas production.The forecast for LPG imports(Figure 2.20)is slightly more positive than the revised forecast for LPG production,in comparison to last years Outlook publication,with the most considerable changes to the estimates driven by increased imports into China.Figure 2.19:LPG producti

184、on by region.Figure 2.20:LPG imports by region.40035030025020020203020402050MtAmericasEurasiaME/AfricaIndiaChinaOther Asia08060402002020203020402050Mt MSI MSI28|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESNewbuilding activity in the sector h

185、as focused on very large gas carriers(VLGCs)fueled by LPG,and we expect to see a significant increase in LPG usage for propulsion in the sector by 2025.Over the longer term,ammonia and hydrogen will increasingly displace fossil fuels in the fuel mix.With this update we have reduced the share of oil-

186、based fuels within the LPG bunkering mix(Figure 2.21).2020202520302035204020452050 01 234567Mt HFO EquivalentOil BasedLPGBio/e-dieselMethanolOil Based(2023 Forecast)LNGAmmonia/HydrogenFigure 2.21:Fuel mix for LPG carriers.2.3.6 Pure Car and Truck Carriers(PCTC)Following extensive disruptions to vehi

187、cle production during the COVID-19 pandemic,vehicle trade has seen a strong rebound in the past year,which in part has led to exceptional strength in PCTC markets.Revisions to the car carrier trade forecasts(compared to our previous projections)comprise of a modest downgrade to global light vehicle(

188、LV)sale volumes,an upward revision to expected PCTC trade through the mid-2030s,and a downgrade to forecasted trade toward the end of the forecast horizon.The forecast downgrades apply specifically to trade in new and used LVs,with forecasted trade in the High and Heavy segment slightly increased re

189、lative to out last year projections.In line with the container and minor bulks segments,and contrast to most commodity shipping segments,we expect continued growth in PCTC trade over the forecast horizon to 2050(Figure 2.22).MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|29There has been a notable upsurge i

190、n newbuild contracting of PCTCs since the pandemic,with extensive interest in vessels with dual-fuel propulsion.We expect a comparatively rapid uptake of alternative fuels in this segment,initially driven by methanol.Figure 2.23 illustrates the forecasted fuel mix.2.3.7 General Cargo/Multipurpose Ve

191、sselsTwo key features of our dry bulk and container segment forecasts are expected to drive growing volumes of general cargo demand over the forecast horizon:the increased share of minor bulk cargoes within overall dry bulk cargo volumes(Figure 2.24),and the growing predominance of intra-regional vo

192、lumes within global container trade(Figure 2.25).In both cases general cargo vessels are expected to retain a share of trade volumes.Figure 2.22:PCTC trade.5040302020402050Car Equivalent Units CEU(Million)High and HeavyUsed LVsNew LVsFigure 2.23:Fuel mix for PCTCs.0246852030203

193、5204020452050Mt HFO EquivalentAmmonia/HydrogenMethanolLPGLNGBio/e-dieselOil BasedOil Based(2023 Forecast)MSI MSI30|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESThe general cargo sees a rapidly ageing fleet age profile compared to the major shipping sectors.Despite

194、 this,newbuilding contracting volumes in this segment have been low in recent years,and in particular the general cargo segment has gotten off to a prolonged start in placing contracts for alternatively fueled vessels.As such,the bunkering mix for this segment(Figure 2.26)is set to remain dominated

195、by oil-based fuels some way into the 2040s.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050002020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050MtOtherMineralsForest ProductsSemi-ProcessedOther FerrousBauxite/AluminaMinor OresShare of Dry BulkCargo(RH Axis)6,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000Minor Bulk Trad

196、eIntra-Regional Container TradeMt2020202520302035204020452050Figure 2.24:Minor bulks seaborne trade by commodity.Figure 2.26:Fuel mix for general cargo vessels.Figure 2.25:Key drivers for general cargo trade.64202020202520302035204020452050Oil BasedLPGBio/e-dieselMethanolLNGOil Based(2023

197、 Forecast)Ammonia/HydrogenMt HFO Equivalent MSI MSI MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|312.3.8 Cruise VesselsThe cruise industry was hit hard by the COVID pandemic.From a record peak of 29.7 million in 2019,global passenger volumes declined by 75 percent year-on-year in 2020 and a further 50 per

198、cent year on year in 2021.After a partial recovery in 2022,global cruise passenger numbers exceeded 30 million for the first time in 2023.Long-term prospects for the sector are positive but linked to the continued expansion of cruise holiday participation,particularly in Asia.Cruise penetration,meas

199、ured as a percentage of the global population(Figure 2.27),stood at less than 0.3 percent in 2010,but reached just under 0.4 percent in 2019 and is forecast to exceed 0.6 percent by 2050.Figure 2.27:Cruise passengers by origin and global percent penetration.00700.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6

200、%0.7%2002520302035204020452050Passengers(Million)Percentage of Global PopulationRest of WorldAsia PacificEuropeN AmericaPenetration MSI32|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES64202020202520302035204020452050Oil BasedOil Based(2023 For

201、ecast)LPGBio/e-dieselMethanolLNGAmmonia/HydrogenMt HFO EquivalentThe sector is dominated by four large groups,which account for approximately 80 percent of global cruise capacity,measured in lower berths.The cost of building a large cruise ship is substantial,and operating a cruise line requires sig

202、nificant manpower and land-based infrastructure.These two factors together represent a high barrier to entry for new players.Consequently,new entrants have typically targeted smaller niche segments,such as expedition cruises,or on budget cruising using older vessels.The four large cruise groups repo

203、rted(Figure 2.28)an aggregate of 20 million tonnes(Mt)of carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions in 2019(Scope 1:ship fuel,refrigerants,and island fuel).The pandemic-related slump in cruising activity was mirrored in reduced emission levels from 2020 to 2021,recovering back in 2022.The cruise sector was an ear

204、ly mover in LNG,with the first dual-fuel LNG vessel built in 2018.Given the frequency of port calls and the energy intensive nature of hotel operations whilst in port,shoreside power will be an essential factor in reducing emissions.However,of the top 10 cruise ports(ranked by vessel calls),just thr

205、ee currently offer cruise lines the option of connecting to shoreside power,but cold ironing facilities are being developed in other ports.Figure 2.29 illustrates the forecasted fuel mix for the cruise industry.059202020212022Mt CO2EquivalentCruise Group 1Cruise Group 3Cruise Group 2Cruis

206、e Group 4Figure 2.28:CO2 emissions reported by leading cruise groups(Scope 1).Figure 2.29:Fuel Mix for Cruise Ships MSI MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|33Red Sea routeCape of Good Hope route2.4 Geopolitical Impacts to Maritime DecarbonizationBeyond the conflict in Ukraine that have been going

207、 on for more than two years and its indirect impact on shipping markets,the situation has become even more complex by two additional geopolitical events expected to introduce additional challenges in the maritime industrys efforts to decarbonize.2.4.1 Red Sea Conflict The ongoing conflict in the Red

208、 Sea has had significant implications for global shipping trade and efforts toward maritime decarbonization.The conflict,primarily due to attacks by regional groups,has forced a major reroute of maritime traffic away from one of the worlds busiest shipping lanes,the Suez Canal,to longer alternative

209、routes such as around the Cape of Good Hope(Figure 2.30).Around 12 percent of global trade passes through the Suez Canal Bab al-Mandab,representing 30 percent of all global container traffic.This shift has led to a variety of economic and environmental impacts.A journey that typically passes through

210、 the Suez Canal takes significantly longer,increasing fuel consumption and operational costs.The latter is directly passed onto consumers through higher shipping rates,which have nearly quintupled for some routes,particularly those from Asia to Europe.The disruption has also caused a spike in shippi

211、ng insurance premiums due to the heightened risks of transiting through conflict-affected areas.Marine bunker calls have surged 80 percent in South Africa.Moreover,the rerouting has affected global trade flows,with a noticeable decline in traffic through the Suez Canal and an increase around the Cap

212、e of Good Hope.This shift is a temporary inconvenience and a substantial economic burden,as companies face delayed deliveries and the challenge of managing disrupted supply chains.Diversion of shipping routes due to the conflict has increased transit times and costs.By checking the seven-day moving

213、average of vessel arrival in the Gulf of Aden as illustrated in Figure 2.31,a seaborne trade disruption is apparent as vessel arrival dropped below 4 million gross tons(m gt)on Dec 28,2023.Until now,vessel arrivals in the Gulf of Aden only accounted for two-thirds of their typical levels.Figure 2.30

214、:Shipping routes disruption.Suez Canal Route(Singapore to Rotterdam):8,500 nautical miles in 26 daysCape of Good Hope Route(Singapore to Rotterdam):12,000 nautical miles in 3640 days 34|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESThe conflict also poses challenge

215、s to maritime decarbonization efforts.The longer routes significantly increase fuel consumption,which not only raises operational costs but also increases greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.This is a cause for concern given the industrys ongoing efforts to reduce its carbon footprint.The broader implicati

216、ons of these disruptions are profound,affecting everything from the cost of goods in global markets to the economic stability of shipping companies.The increased costs and operational complexities will likely persist,influencing global inflationary trends and possibly impacting consumer prices.Furth

217、ermore,the situation highlights the vulnerability of global trade to geopolitical tensions.It underscores the need for enhanced security and alternative strategies within international shipping routes to mitigate such risks in the future.2.4.2 Panama Canal Low Water Levels The Panama Canal,a crucial

218、 conduit for global trade,is currently facing severe operational constraints due to historic low water levels attributed to drought and exacerbated by the El Nio phenomenon.The water levels in Gatn Lake,essential for operating the canals locks,have reached record lows,leading to significant reductio

219、ns in daily ship transits.This limitation has been stepped down from the usual 36 to 38 ships per day to only 24 ships per day as of early 2024(Figure 2.32).The reduction in transit capacity is particularly impactful on the dry bulk and LNG shipping segments,which often operate outside regular sched

220、ules and are more vulnerable to such disruptions.Jan.2023May 2023March 2023July 2023Sept.2023Nov.2023Jan.2024March 2024Jan.2023May 2023March 2023July 2023Sept.2023Nov.2023Jan.2024March 2024Arrivals,Gulf of Aden(m gt)Arrivals,Cape of Good Hope(m gt)654320Figure 2.31:Red Sea rerouting due t

221、o vessel attacks.SECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|35Moreover,the necessity to maintain operational water levels has also reduced the allowable ship draught,decreasing from 50 feet to 44 feet.This reduction translates to a significant decrease in cargo capacity,with an average container vessel now

222、 carrying 2,400 fewer twenty-foot equivalent units(TEUs).These changes have prompted shipping companies to reroute to alternative paths,such as the longer and more costly route around Cape Horn or through the Suez Canal,despite recent instabilities in the Red Sea area.The constraints imposed by low

223、water levels in the Panama Canal also affect global maritime decarbonization efforts.As with the Red Sea Conflict,the need for longer routes due to canal constraints increases fuel consumption and thus GHG emissions.The Panama Canal Authority has been exploring the reuse of water and constructing ne

224、w reservoirs to mitigate water shortages.These efforts are part of a broader strategy to maintain canal operations while considering environmental sustainability.The ongoing water crisis in the Panama Canal illustrates the complex intersection of global trade logistics,environmental challenges,and e

225、fforts toward sustainable maritime operations.The situation demands significant adaptive measures from the global shipping industry and highlights the critical need for infrastructural resilience in face of climate change-induced weather patterns.Moreover,it underscores the interconnectedness of glo

226、bal trade infrastructure and environmental sustainability efforts,with each influencing the effectiveness and outcomes of the otherNumber of Vessels5054045Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.202420232022Figure 2.32:Panama Canal daily transit calls.36|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBO

227、N NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES2.5 Fuel Mix Forecast2.5.1 Trade and Fleet Growth ABS overriding view of the period to 2050 hasnt changed materially with this update compared to the 2023 Outlook.There have been some near-term recalibrations due to recent geopolitical events.

228、These generally result in supply chain disruptions leading to higher earnings in some sectors and overall higher fuel consumption in the short term due to vessel rerouting,particularly to avoid the Red Sea/Suez Canal.A major revision in this publication compared to last years Outlook is a recalibrat

229、ion of the LPG carrier forecast to account for potentially soaring ammonia demand.However,this does not materially change our forecast at an aggregate level.2.5.2 Fuel Mix Forecast Base Case The decarbonization of the shipping industry includes further refinements to the existing forecasting methodo

230、logy.We are now including assumptions for the greening of LNG as a bunker fuel.In addition,the Well-to-Wake(WtW)emissions calculations are now aligned with the FuelEU Maritime factors to synchronize with broader industry analysis.Notably,after consistent reductions in expectations for oil burning wi

231、th ABS previous forecasts,there is an expectation for higher than previously forecasted oil burning in the second half of this decade.This reflects lower than expected penetration of dual-fuel engines in the dry bulk and tanker sectors.The recent disruptions to trade flows through Panama and Suez ha

232、ve increased fuel consumption.Figures 2.33 and 2.34 illustrate our forecasts for the consumption and the fuel mix on heavy fuel oil(HFO)equivalent.05003002020202520302035204020452050Mt HFO EquivalentCruiseRo/paxOther CargoGas CarriersContainershipBulkerTankerFigure 2.33:Consumption by shi

233、p type(HFO equivalent).MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|372.5.3 CO2 Emissions Forecast Base Case Shipping emissions will peak in the next couple of years.This will be due to fleet growth and disruptions to trade patterns for a substantial portion of the fleet,as owners offset the implementatio

234、n of fuel efficiency measures in response to the Carbon Intensity Indicator(CII)regulations from the IMO.Figures 2.35 and 2.36 illustrate the CO2 emissions on a WtW basis.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%202320242025202620272028202920302033420352036203720382039204020444204520462047

235、204820492050100%Ammonia/HydrogenLPGMethanolBio/e-dieselOil BasedLNGOil Based 2023Figure 2.34:Fuel mix(HFO equivalent).02004006008001,0001,2002023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Mt CO2CruiseContainershipOther CargoGas CarriersBulkerTankerRo/paxIMO 2008 WtW70%Reduction02004006008001,0001,2002023 20302035 204

236、0 2045 2050Mt CO2IMO 2008 WtWAmmonia/HydrogenLPGBio/e-dieselMethanolLNGOil Based70%ReductionFigure 2.35:CO2 Emissions by ship type Well-to-Wake(base case scenario).Figure 2.36:CO2 emissions by fuel source Well-to-Wake(base case scenario).MSI MSI MSIShip types included:oil and chemical tankers,dry bu

237、lk carriers,containerships,LPG,LNG,car carriers,general cargo,ro/ro,ro/pax and cruise.38|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESAssuming that the trade patterns return to normal,we forecast emissions to further decline as we approach 2030.This will allow the

238、 efforts toward decarbonizing shipping to further increase.Based on recent history and our assumptions that penetration of dual-fuel engines accelerates in the coming years,we expect the share of the fleet capacity to be capable of burning dual fuels to reach 9 percent in 2030.The extent to which th

239、is capability is utilized depends on the development of the fuels,with the downside risk being clear.A further positive item is the growing adoption of energy efficiency technologies.In addition to many headline-grabbing additions,such as fixed sails,the adoption of simpler,less visible technologies

240、 is accelerating.Under our base case scenario,a 20 percent reduction in CO2 equivalent emissions in 2030 relative to 2008 is achievable on a WtW basis,but 70 percent reduction by 2040 is going to be challenging.Section 2.5.4 explores the potential routes to achieving the latter target.2.5.4 Net-Zero

241、 Scenarios ABS has aligned its net-zero scenarios incorporating the latest mandates from the IMO.These set clear targets for shipping and a key component of our analysis is to quantify how easy or difficult it will be to achieve them.Measures to achieve net zero are going to be multilayered and vari

242、ed.Multiple potential solutions are becoming available to the industry but what is less clear is how this will play out in real time.2.5.4.1 Net-Zero Scenario#1 Missing the 2040 IMO MilestoneThis scenario takes a similar approach to our net-zero scenario from ABS 2023 Outlook publication.We have ass

243、umed that energy efficiency technologies(EETs)achieve a global aggregate reduction in emissions of 15 percent by 2040,after which they level out as no further gains are possible.We also assume that e-diesel replaces both oil and biodiesel in the years leading up to 2050.Ultimately the latter assumpt

244、ion remains necessary to achieve the final goal of zero-carbon emissions.However,by applying a steady approach to these factors we find that the goal of a 70 percent reduction in emissions relative to 2008 would not be met by 2040.This is because the cumulative impact of many of the transitions in t

245、echnology and fuel gathers pace in the later years of the forecast.Figures 2.37 and 2.38 illustrate the CO2 emissions on a WtW basis.The radical measures needed to meet the 2040 target are explored in the next subsection.02004006008001,0001,2002023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Mt CO2CruiseContainershipOt

246、her CargoGas CarriersBulkerTankerRo/paxIMO 2008 WtW70%ReductionMt CO2IMO 2008 WtW02004006008001,0001,200203020232035 2040 20452050Ammonia/HydrogenLPGBio/e-dieselMethanolLNGOil Based70%ReductionFigure 2.37:CO2 emissions by ship type Well-to-Wake(Net-Zero Scenario#1).Figure 2.38:CO2 emissions by fuel

247、source Well-to-Wake(Net-Zero Scenario#1).MSI MSISECTION 2 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK|392.5.4.2 Net-Zero Scenario#2 Achieving the 2040 IMO Milestone Through Retrofits As outlined in net-zero scenario#1,an assumption of a steady acceleration in emissions reduction to a peak in time for 2050,does not ac

248、hieve the IMOs target for a 70 percent reduction in emissions by 2040.Based on the net-zero scenario#1,we still have around 375 Mt CO2 equivalent(CO2eq)emissions from oil-based fuels and 120 Mt from liquefied gases in 2040.To achieve an aggregate level of 360 Mt CO2eq(the 70 percent target)would,the

249、refore,mean a hugely accelerated reduction in the use of oil and gas,which would mean a significantly more rapid renewal of the fleet to replace oil-fueled vessels or a high degree of retrofitting suitable engines.In line with ABS studies,it is estimated that in 2040,around 733m gt of vessels will s

250、till have oil based fuel engines,though a small proportion of these will be burning biodiesel and e-diesel.However,if one-third of these(or half the vessel candidate pool for engine retrofit identified in Section 3.2.1)were converted to ammonia or methanol by 2040 and could also access zero-carbon f

251、uels,then the 70 percent reduction from the 2008 baseline would be achieved.Figures 2.39 and 2.40 illustrate the CO2 emissions on a WtW basis under this scenario.Figure 2.39:CO2 emissions by ship type Well-to-Wake(Net-Zero Scenario#2).Figure 2.40:CO2 emissions by fuel source Well-to-Wake(Net-Zero Sc

252、enario#2).02004006008001,0001,2002023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Mt CO2CruiseContainershipOther CargoGas CarriersBulkerTankerRo/paxIMO 2008 WtW70%Reduction02004006008001,0001,200203020232035 2040 2045 2050Mt CO2IMO 2008 WtW70%ReductionAmmonia/HydrogenLPGBio/e-dieselMethanolLNGOil Based MSI MSI40|BEYOND

253、 THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESSECTION 3Crude TankersProduct TankersChemical TankersSpec.TankersBulkersLPG CarriersLNG CarriersContainershipsMPPGeneral CargoRo/roPCCReefersOfshoreCruiseFerries 243.6 120.3 32.9.06 559.5 29.9 78.4 302.5 22.4 25.513.9 39.03.8

254、 59.2 27.4 15.4 243.6 120.3 32.90.6 559.5 29.9 78.4 302.5 22.4 25.513.9 39.03.8 59.2 27.4 15.42001000300 400 500 600Crude TankersProduct TankersChemical TankersSpec.TankersBulkersLPG CarriersLNG CarriersContainershipsMPPGeneral CargoRo/roPCCReefersOfshoreCruiseFerries 2,324 6,548 3,420108 13,672 1,3

255、53 756 6,211 3,249 6,913 677 760578 3,477 293 716 2,324 6,548 3,420108 13,672 1,353 756 6,211 3,249 6,913 677 760578 3,477 293 71605,00010,00015,000 3.1.Orderbook Status 3.1.1.World Shipping FleetThe current world shipping fleet as of April 2024,in gross tons and number of vessels is shown in Figure

256、s 3.1 and 3.2(world fleet totals shown based on vessels 2000 dwt).In total,there are over 109,000 ships in operation with a total deadweight of around 2.4 billion deadweight tonnage(dwt)and 1.6 billion gross tons(gt).Figure 3.1:World fleet,million gross tons.Figure 3.2:World fleet,number of vessels.

257、(Source:Clarksons Research,World Fleet Register,April 2024)SECTION 3 MARKET OUTLOOK AND ECOSYSTEM CAPACITY|41Figure 3.3:Global 5,000 gt orderbook 20002023.Figure 3.4:Global 5,000 gt orderbook as percent of fleet by ship type.3.1.2.Status of Global OrderbookThe evolution of the orderbook closely foll

258、ows developments relating to newbuilding contracting and the delivery of ships into the world fleet.Between the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2020,the supply side was characterized by two broad trends:1.A general reduction in newbuilding contracting 2.Except in the period 2013-201

259、5,deliveries typically outpaced contracting.The net result of this is a significant contraction in the size of the global orderbook for 5,000 gt commercial ships from a peak of over 360 million(m)gt at the end of 2008 to a nadir of around 121m gt at the end of 2020.The orderbook-to-fleet ratio equat

260、ed to just 9.2 percent at the end of 2020,compared to 50 percent at the end of 2008.As a percentage of the fleet,this was the lowest level recorded since the mid-1990s(Figure 3.3).Following the recent spike in newbuilding contracting from the end of 2020 onward,the global orderbook has increased fro

261、m this nadir,reaching 208m gt by the end of 2023.This is equivalent to 14.3 percent of the world fleet.In line with the concentration of newbuilding contracting in a handful of markets in recent years,the composition of the global orderbook has been drastically altered.The orderbook is now remarkabl

262、y lopsided with sizeable orderbooks for some ship types and historically small orderbooks for others.As detailed in Figure 3.4,the orderbook for gas carriers is large as a percentage of the current fleet,as are the orderbook for liner vessels,namely containerships and car carriers.However,the orderb

263、ooks for crude and product tankers and dry bulk carriers remain relatively modest.We have also seen a notable contraction in the orderbook for cruise ships since 2020,which is unsurprising given the extremely adverse impact the global pandemic had on this market.After the robust newbuild contracting

264、 volumes recorded in recent years,the newbuilding market has cooled rapidly since Q4 2023.While there continues to be notable interest in the tanker and gas carrier markets,fresh newbuild contracting for dry bulk carrier and containership has been limited in recent months.Faced with a multitude of h

265、eadwinds,ranging from economic uncertainty and softening freight markets to elevated newbuilding prices and long lead times at shipyards,it is expected that ship owners will take a step-back from the newbuilding market this year.%FleetTotal Orderbook%Share Fleet(RH Axis)200072009201320152

266、002320110%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0500300350400450500m gtTotalCrude TankProdTankChem TankLPGLNGBulkerFCCGen CargoReeferPCCRo/roRo/paxCruise 0%5 10 15 20 25 30 35 4045 50End 2019End February 2024 MSI MSI42|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL

267、 TECHNOLOGIESAfter the surge of contracting in recent years,the global orderbook reached 208m gt by the end of 2023.This is its highest level since 2011 and 71 percent higher than at the end of 2020.Moving forward,we expect the orderbook to shrink,as the ships ordered in the last few years start bei

268、ng delivered and newbuild contracting activity remains subdued.The orderbook is forecast to fall to a nadir of around 170m gt in 2026.While this is 18 percent below its peak in 2023,it is notably larger than at any point in the second half of the 2010s.Thereafter,we expect the orderbook to remain st

269、able before trending upwards in the first half of the next decade(Figure 3.6).025507552002252020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035m gtOthersPCTCsGas CarriersContainershipsDry Bulk CarriersTankersFigure 3.5:Global 5,000 gt fleet supply-side developm

270、ents by ship type.The current forecasts suggest that aggregate contracting volumes will reach around 55m gt in 2024,down 31 percent year-on-year and 45 percent below 2021s recent high of 99.8m gt.A comparable level of activity is expected next year before volumes recover in the second half of the de

271、cade in response to the twin drivers of replacement demand and tightening environmental regulations.However,the recovery will be gradual,and volumes are not expected to recover to levels close to recent highs until the middle of the next decade(Figure 3.5).MSISECTION 3 MARKET OUTLOOK AND ECOSYSTEM C

272、APACITY|433.1.2.1.Oil Tanker OrderbookTankers comprise one of the highest world fleets in terms of numbers and gross tonnage.There has been a steady increase in ordering since 2023.The breakdown of all tanker contracts by year and by sector are shown in Figure 3.7 and Table 3.1.-100-75-50-2502550751

273、00202020224202520262027202820292030203342035m gtNet TotalContractingDeliveriesOthersPCTCsGas CarriersContainershipsDry Bulk CarriersTankerFigure 3.6:Global 5,000 gt orderbook dynamics by ship type.Figure 3.7:Annual tanker contracting by sector and number.050030035040

274、04502023ytd20242008200920000022VLCCPanamaxSuezmaxMR/HandyAframaxSmall(Source:Clarksons Research,World Fleet Register,April 2024)MSI44|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES3.1.2.2.Battery-Fitted Vessels OrderbookT

275、here has been a significant increase in battery-fitted vessels in the last three years with the momentum expected to continue.Figure 3.8 shows the number of orders placed for battery-fitted ships including battery-hybrid ships based on vessel type.Sector10 Year average20222023YTD 2024VLCC3331824Suez

276、max31115823Aframax47309717Panamax11-322MR/Handy765413338Small5347405Total250145378109Table 3.1:Tanker contracting by sector and number.Figure 3.8:Orderbook of battery fitted ships(including battery-hybrid).Number of Vessels0806040200200222023ytd 2024BulkerOfshoreTankerMPP/Gen.C

277、argoContainershipCruise/FerryOther(Source:Clarksons Research,World Fleet Register,April 2024)(Source:Clarksons Research,World Fleet Register,April 2024)SECTION 3 MARKET OUTLOOK AND ECOSYSTEM CAPACITY|453.1.2.3.Alternative Fuels UptakeSection 2.5.2 addressed the fleet evolution and the investment in

278、alternative fuels.It can be clearly observed that in the latest decade there has been a significant surge in ordering of alternative fuel capable ships,with demand being steady in 2024(Figure 3.9).Figures 3.10 and 3.11 illustrate the increase in the ordering of vessels capable of using alternative f

279、uels.Liquefied natural gas(LNG)and methanol are the top two alternative fuels currently on the orderbook.Figure 3.9:Number of owners ordering alternative fuel capable ships.5%2%6%7%15%24%24%17%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0572002120222023ytd 2024m gtShare of total newbuilding contracting

280、BulkerTankerPassengersContainershipShare of TotalOther Cargo Vessels MSI46|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESLNGLPGMethanolEthaneHydrogenAmmoniaBiofuelBatteryOtherTotal30232285131205291,0111,815LNGLPGMethanolEthaneHydrogenAmmoniaBiofuelBatteryOtherTotal

281、0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.3%0.3%5.4%Alternative 2%Conventional98%Alternative 7%Conventional93%Alternative Fuels Existing FleetNumber of VesselsNumber of Vessels%Gross Tonnage6.5%600500400300200100 0BulkersTankersContainershipsLNGCarriersLPGCarriersGeneralCargoRo/ro/PCCDPassenger/CruiseLNGLPGMethanol

282、AmmoniaHydrogenEthaneBiofuelFigure 3.10:Existing fleet by fuel type.(Source:Clarksons Research,World Fleet Register,April 2024)SECTION 3 MARKET OUTLOOK AND ECOSYSTEM CAPACITY|47BulkersTankers ContainershipsLNGCarriersLPGCarriersGeneralCargoRo/ro/PCCDPassenger/CruiseLNGLPGMethanolAmmoniaHydrogenEthan

283、eBiofuelLNGLPGMethanolEthaneHydrogenAmmoniaBiofuelBatteryOtherTotal203431013 71,581LNGLPGMethanolEthaneHydrogenAmmoniaBiofuelBatteryOtherTotal8.9%0.9%0.2%0.1%0.4%2.0%0.0%2.1%Alternative 27%Conventional73%Alternative 49%Conventional51%Alternative Fuels OrderbookNumber of Vessels%Gross Tonn

284、age49.3%34.4%400350300250200150100500Number of VesselsFigure 3.11:Orderbook by fuel type.(Source:Clarksons Research,World Fleet Register,April 2024)48|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES3.1.3.Status of Energy Efficiency Technologies Existing FleetThe ene

285、rgy efficiency technologies(EETs)adoption rate for the current fleet is relatively low,but as shipping continues toward 2030 and beyond,the adoption rate is expected to grow.As seen in Table 3.2,there are certain takeaways from the current EET profile across the existing fleet.The highest EET uptake

286、 ship type for the existing fleet is bulk carriers,followed by containerships,LNG carriers,and liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)carriers.EETs with the highest adoption rates in the current fleet benefit from their relative ease of implementation(e.g.,propeller ducts,rudder bulb,etc.).Wind-assisted propul

287、sion systems have some of the lowest levels of adoption in the current fleet.However,some vessel types are more suitable for renewable options.One such example is the Flettner rotor,a cylindrical structure that utilizes the Magnus effect to generate propulsion power,which is much more practical for

288、a bulker than a containership.It is important to note that each technologys effectiveness in reducing greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions depends on various factors such as vessel type and operational profile.A comprehensive approach that combines multiple EETs tailored to specific ship characteristics is

289、often the most effective way to achieve significant emissions reductions.SECTION 3 MARKET OUTLOOK AND ECOSYSTEM CAPACITY|49Energy Efficient TechnologyBulkersTankersContainer-shipsLNGLPGGeneral CargoRo/Ro or PCCPassenger/CruiseAll Ship TypesAir Lubrication System0.1%0.06%0.8%6.4%0.1%0.02%1.1%0.5%0.3%

290、Hull Fin4.0%0.6%0.9%-0.2%0.03%0.5%0.07%1.1%Twin Fin0.01%-0.001%Bow Enhancement7.0%0.9%5.3%1.4%5.6%0.2%2.1%0.2%2.4%Bow Foil,Retractable-0.02%0.003%Hull Skating System0.01%-0.1%-0.01%PBCF Propeller Boss Cap Fin5.4%1.6%7.8%2.9%1.5%0.08%3.3%0.1%2.4%Propeller Duct10.0%5.8%0.9%2.0%5.9%0.04%0.1%-3.7%Wake E

291、qualizing Duct0.9%0.7%1.2%0.9%-0.2%0.1%-0.5%Stator Fin/Pre-Swirl8.6%2.0%8.9%-2.4%0.06%1.2%-3.1%Stator Fin/Post-Swirl0.1%-0.6%-0.6%-0.04%Rudder Bulb7.8%2.9%12.4%12.8%4.7%0.2%7.2%0.6%4.0%Rudder Fin1.7%0.2%0.02%-0.02%-0.01%0.4%Gate Rudder0.0%-0.08%-0.02%-0.013%Solar Panel0.01%0.01%-1.9%0.2%0.1%Wind,Fle

292、ttner Rotor0.07%0.02%-0.1%0.01%0.2%0.03%0.03%Wind,Kite0.01%-0.003%Wind,Rigid Sail0.02%0.01%-0.1%0.01%0.01%Wind,Suction Wing0.01%0.01%0.02%-0.02%0.2%-0.02%Wind,Inflatable Sail-0.1%-0.001%Waste Heat Recover System(WHRS)0.09%0.02%0.26%-0.01%-0.2%0.08%All EETs26.0%11.2%25.0%21.3%14.0%0.7%12.5%2.4%11.7%T

293、able 3.2:EETs uptake existing fleet.(Source:Clarksons Research,World Fleet Register,April 2024)50|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES3.1.4.Status of Energy Efficiency Technologies OrderbookEETs offer a promising pathway toward a more sustainable and envi

294、ronmentally friendly maritime industry.The International Maritime Organization(IMO)proposed the penetration rate for EETs in the fourth GHG study report,adopting this parameter to define the percentages of the ships that will implement each technology.The orderbook adoption rate for EETs can be seen

295、 in Table 3.3,with key insights provided below:More shipowners invest in EETs for new ships.Compared to last years EET uptake,the latest rate for the global fleet orderbook jumps from 28 percent to 37.4 percent.The highest EET uptake ship type is roll on/roll off(ro/ro)/pure car carrier(PCC),followe

296、d by containerships,LNG carriers,and bulk carriers.Design considerations,such as bow enhancement and rudder bulbs have a much higher adoption rate on new vessels than the previous EETuptake rate.Air lubrication systems have a lower adoption rate for the overall global fleet orderbook,but containersh

297、ips and gas carriers show an increasing trend.SECTION 3 MARKET OUTLOOK AND ECOSYSTEM CAPACITY|51Energy Efficient TechnologyBulkersTankersContainer-shipsLNGLPGGeneral CargoRo/Ro or PCCPassenger/CruiseAll Ship TypesAir Lubrication System0.3%0.4%12.6%39.8%1.9%-14.2%1.9%6.4%Hull Fin8.9%1.2%1.6%-3.0%Twin

298、 Fin-Bow Enhancement15.3%7.5%26.6%2.6%26.9%18.4%44.9%1.6%15.9%Bow Foil,Retractable-0.2%-0.02%Hull Skating System-PBCF Propeller Boss Cap Fin7.8%4.5%1.9%3.8%-1.5%34.2%0.6%5.6%Propeller Duct7.8%4.5%6.6%-7.1%0.7%-4.6%Wake Equalizing Duct-0.2%-0.05%Stator Fin/Pre-Swirl20.9%7.5%17.2%-1.4%-29.8%-11.8%Stat

299、or Fin/Post-Swirl-Rudder Bulb11.8%12.9%40.2%20.8%6.1%1.9%19.6%5.3%16.3%Rudder Fin4.7%0.2%-1.3%Gate Rudder-4.4%-0.2%Solar Panel0.8%-0.8%-16.9%2.5%1.4%Wind,Flettner Rotor0.6%-1.9%-1.3%-0.3%Wind,Kite0.1%-0.02%Wind,Rigid Sail0.1%0.2%0.7%-0.4%0.6%0.3%Wind,Suction Wing-6.1%-0.3%0.6%Wind,Inflatable Sail-Wa

300、ste Heat Recover System(WHRS)-1.1%3.0%-0.9%4.0%1.1%All EETs38.4%25.6%54.4%51.8%31.6%21.3%70.7%14.3%37.4%Table 3.3:EETs uptake orderbook.(Source:Clarksons Research,World Fleet Register,April 2024)52|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES3.1.5.Future Fleet Re

301、newalFigure 3.12 shows the world fleet by delivery year.This provides an estimate of future replacement requirements for the world fleet as fleet age is a good indicator of fleet retirement,shipbreaking,and retrofit potential.Further,Figure 3.13 illustrates the advanced age of a large portion of the

302、 fleet(about a third of the fleet is over 15 years old)and the average fleet age is 12.5 years.These are indications that there will be the need for a significant fleet renewal in the near future especially considering the IMO decarbonization strategy and targets(as well as other regional requiremen

303、ts)that make it even more challenging for older tonnage to remain compliant.m gt01006%O%1%2%3%4%5%20002000420052006200720082009200000222023ytd.2024Eco Modern“Eco”-defined as vessel with modern electronic main engine.OtherPercent of Wo

304、rld FleetFigure 3.12:World fleet by delivery year.Figure 3.13:Portion of fleet 15 years old.3.2.Retrofit Status and Outlook3.2.1.Alternative Fuel RetrofitsAddressing the status of ships currently in service that run on conventional fuels is a crucial element of decarbonizing the maritime industry.Am

305、ongst the many solutions currently under consideration,one of the most prominent is retrofitting the engines onboard ships to use carbon-neutral or zero-carbon fuels.The decision to retrofit a ship is a complex one,involving a range of technological,financial,and operational barriers.As a means of c

306、ompliance,it is at nascent stages of development and to date,only a small number of ships have undergone a fuel retrofit.As of March 2024,the number of retrofitted ships in the 5,000 gt world fleet totaled just 49 of an aggregate 1.8m gt.A further 43 ships of 5.1m gt,primarily large containerships,a

307、re pending retrofit.This brings the total completed and pending retrofits to 92 ships,BulkersCrude TankersProduct TankersChemical TankersSpec.TankersLPGLNGContainershipsMPPGenral CargoRo-RoPCCReefersOfshoreCruiseFerriesTotal Fleet15-19 yrs20 yrs0%20%40%60%80%100%14%10%21%18%30%18%29%20%13%48%16%16%2

308、4%13%22%13%22%32%17%47%9%38%33%21%5%78%13%44%13%31%12%56%19%17%(Source:Clarksons Research,World Fleet Register,April 2024)MSISECTION 3 MARKET OUTLOOK AND ECOSYSTEM CAPACITY|53Figure 3.14:Historical retrofit of 5,000 gt world fleet by year of retrofit/fuel type.Table 3.4:Completed and pending fuel re

309、trofits by ship type;data as of April 1,2024.equivalent to 0.15 percent of the world fleet in terms of numbers.Figure 3.14 and Table 3.4 provide an overview of the fuel retrofits status.Excluding LPG which is typically deployed on a“cargo-as-fuel”basis on LPG carriers,the most popular fuel for retro

310、fitting has historically been LNG.However,the number of LNG fuel retrofits has remained modest due to many challenges.These include technical challenges around retrofits,the rising cost of LNG in recent years,and mounting uncertainty around the emissions profile of LNG as a fuel when measured on a W

311、ell-to-Wake(WtW)basis and the attendant problem of methane slip.Looking at the short-term,data demonstrates an increase in methanol dual-fuel retrofits.However,this may be due to the containership markets current preference for this fuel.The majority of pending retrofits are owned by a small number

312、of the major containership lines.As such,the preferred fuel for retrofits remains far from certain.024680000022202320242025202620272028LNGMethanolLPGEthaneNumber of VesselsLightly shaded boxes are confirmed retrofits thatare either scheduled or

313、pending completion.Ship TypeCompleted RetrofitPending RetrofitNumberk gt%of FleetNumberk gt%of FleetCrude and Product Tankers-Chemical Tankers3330.07%4290.09%Dry Bulk Carriers-LPG Carriers188481.06%2960.12%LNG Carriers21700.26%-Containerships52810.08%374,9670.62%RoRo/RoPax204840.93%-Cruise Ship1120.

314、14%-Others-Total491,8280.08%435,0920.07%MSI54|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESGiven the nascent nature of the fuel retrofit market,not all ships in service are suitable candidates at present.ABS conducted an analysis around the issue to determine the

315、characteristics typically cited as being key determinants in a ships suitability.These are detailed in Table 3.5.They fall into two broad categories:1.Technical:Specifically,the type of engine installed onboard the ship and whether it is electronically controlled.2.Financial:Namely,the ships year of

316、 build and age,and its type and size.Applying these criteria to the 5,000 gt world fleet of conventionally fueled ships currently in service,we identified a potential pool of 3,300 ships that are broadly suitable candidates for fuel retrofit(Figure 3.15).When considering the forecast for future supp

317、ly-side developments specifically the ships currently under construction or yet to be ordered that will be delivered with conventionally fueled engines this pool of candidates expands to close to 5,000 ships of an aggregate 500m gt.It is important to note that as the technology and experience around

318、 fuel retrofitting develops,the retrofit option will potentially become available to ship types excluded from the current analysis,older ships,and smaller ships.However,this is largely dependent on a range of other factors,which will be discussed in Section 3.2.2.BulkerTanker02004006008001,0001,2001

319、,400ContainershipOther CargoPassenger258263778837788371,187Total Addressable Market is 3,300 ShipsFigure 3.15:Retrofit candidates by sector.Table 3.5:Criteria and assumptions for fuel retrofit suitability/timing.TypeCriteriaDetailsTechnicalEngine TypeElectronically controlled enginesFinan

320、cialYear of BuildModern“Eco”ships delivered in 2013/2014 or laterVessel AgeUp to 10 years oldVessel Type/SizeTankers:70k dwtBulkers:150k dwtLNG Carriers:N/ALPG Carriers:N/AContainer:7.6k TEUGeneral Cargo/MPP:N/ARo/ro:N/ARo/pax:IncludedCruise:No restrictionsCar Carriers:6k CEUTimingNext special surve

321、y is likely to be date of retrofit MSISECTION 3 MARKET OUTLOOK AND ECOSYSTEM CAPACITY|553.2.2.Engine Retrofits Demand Forecasting the TimingTo effectively forecast potential future fuel retrofits,the pool of candidates must be considered in conjunction with other assumptions.These include:the legisl

322、ative landscape for the decarbonization of shipping,the speed at which industry support for alternative fuels ramps up,the commercial availability of fuel retrofit options and developments around its associated capital expenditure(capex),and finally,developments around the widespread availability of

323、 low-to zero-carbon fuels.It is also important to keep in view the maturation and adoption of“competing”technologies such as“drop-in”fuels and carbon capture.In modeling the potential development of fuel retrofit,we have assumed that:1.Shipping adheres to its goal of net zero by 2050.2.Ammonia dual-

324、fuel engines become commercially available from 2027 to join methanol engines in the marketplace.3.The availability of low-and zero-carbon marine fuels tracks demand and they become widely available over the next decade.Another assumption is the timing of the retrofit.From feasibility study to adopt

325、ion,the retrofit process generally takes around 13 to 20 months.The physical retrofit itself takes an average of around 60 to 80 days;although this can vary depending on the size of the vessel,the scope of the changes required and the level of preparation.It can be assumed that to minimize off-hire

326、time and therefore,lost income,owners will undertake fuel retrofits at the same time as the next scheduled Special Survey.The results of this analysis are presented in Figures 3.16 and 3.17.Given lead times,retrofits are assessed from 2025.Figure 3.16:Estimated dry docking schedules(large vessels).F

327、igure 3.17:Theoretical addressable market for retrofits.9008007006005004003002005202620272028PassengerOther CargoBulkerNumber of VesselsContainershipTankerMt CO20204060800180200BulkerTankerContainer-shipOtherCargoPassengerNew m gtExisting m gtNumber of New VesselsExisting Numbe

328、r of VesselsNumberof Vessels005006007008009001,000 MSI MSI56|BEYOND THE HORIZON:CARBON NEUTRAL FUEL PATHWAYS AND TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES3.2.3.Cruise Vessel Retrofits and Energy Efficiency TechnologiesCruise vessels are discussed in detail in Section 2.3.8.In relation to the topics o

329、f vessel retrofits and EETs,the cruise industry is currently focusing on the following options that can provide the necessary short-term improvements until a selection for a different energy source is made.1.Installation of waste heat recovery(WHR)systems to recover and reuse heat from engine coolin

330、g.2.Installation of air lubrication systems and low-friction hull coatings to reduce drag and improve fuel efficiency.3.According to some cruise operators,heating,ventilation,and air conditioning(HVAC)systems typically use around 15 percent of a vessels total electricity load.All major cruise lines

331、are gradually upgrading to more energy efficient HVAC systems onboard existing vessels.4.Retrofitting of vessels with more energy efficient LED lighting.5.Upgrading to more efficient laundry and galley equipment.Encourage guests to reuse towels to reduce laundry energy load.6.Installation of battery

332、 storage and fuel cell systems to meet hotel power load.7.A few of the major operators have run trials using biofuels derived from used cooking oil and animal fat and are working with suppliers to secure a reliable biofuel supply infrastructure.8.In addition to optimizing itineraries and voyage plan

333、ning to reduce sailing times,cruise lines are also evaluating greater use of open jaw voyages in place of the more common closed-loop sailings.Open jaw voyages are those where the origin and destination differ.This eliminates the return leg and allows cruise lines to start a new voyage from the point of disembarkation.It only works,however,if the cruise does not originate in the passengers home co