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1、Transformative Climate Finance: A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries June 2020 / Washington, DC Transformative Climate Finance: A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 202
2、0 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed
3、in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in
4、 this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowle
5、dge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC
6、 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrightsworldbank.org. The World Bank wishes to acknowledge the contributions of Vivid Economics, Ltd, and the Climate Policy Initiative to this work. The work was led from the World Bank by Jonathan Coony and Klaus Oppermann under the guidance of Marc Sadler
7、. Photography Shutterstock early warning technologies; monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) methodologies and technologies to measure emission reductions; models and tools for long-term scenario simulation and planning; and physical and transitional risk assessment tools. Understand and mana
8、ge the political economy to ensure a just transition. Any transition from business-as-usual to a clean development trajectory will involve localized negative impacts on certain industries, workforces and regions. Welfare gains resulting 3 Strand, Jon. 2020. Transformational Climate Finance: Donors W
9、illingness to Support Deep and Transformational Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in Lower-Income Countries. Policy Research Working Paper; No. 9251. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. from cleaner development must be used to compensate for these losses. Use of climate finance to support this pro
10、cess, even when not directly achieving climate results, is essential for successful clean development. Differentiate support by income level and climate vulnerability. The poorest countries are both most vulnerable to and least responsible for global climate change. While this extends to many middle
11、 income countries, they have a different climate change profile. More can be done to refine the differentiation of climate finance to match countries specific needs and circumstances. This includes applying tiered conditionality for more advanced countries depending on their own efforts and orientat
12、ion toward long-term strategies. Paired with enhanced donor coordination, such approaches can increase the impact of climate finance, in particular for mitigation.3 Transformative Climate Finance: A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries
13、4 The World Bank Group is undertaking analytical work to explore how international climate finance can more effectively assist developing countries to achieve low-carbon, climate resilient development. This work is separate from, but complementary to, parallel work streams on aligning MDB financing
14、with the Paris Agreement. While that work looks at the entirety of MDB operations, this analysis focuses on the use of climate finance for wider catalyzation of overall financing for climate action in developing countries. It is a part of the World Bank Group 2025 Climate Targets and Actions and bui
15、lds on the World Bank 2018 Guiding Framework for the Strategic Use of Climate Finance to Maximize Climate Action. The project is collaborative in nature, tapping sector expertise from the World Bank Group, other MDBs, the private sector, and governments. Two invitation-only events in Singapore and L
16、ondon in May 2019 and October 2019, respectively, brought these stakeholders together to test hypotheses and gather additional information. The events underscored the need to deploy finite public climate finance more transformatively and presented the many ways this is being pursued. This synthesis
17、report builds on two background papers: Transformative Climate Finance: Options to enhance international climate finance flows for transformative climate action in partnership with Vivid Economics and the Climate Policy Initiative, and Transformational Climate Finance: Willingness to Pay among Donor
18、s to Support Deep and Transformational Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in Lower-Income Countries led by the Development Research Group of the World Bank. All analysis and findings herein are the responsibility of the Climate Change Group of the World Bank. This work is intended to contribute to
19、the ongoing debate on improving the effectiveness of different types of climate finance. The primary audience for this report comprises the donor community, DFIs, and dedicated climate finance funds. Findings and recommendations for further action may also be useful to other implementing agencies an
20、d recipient countries. REPORT CONTEXT Transformative Climate Finance: A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 5 Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, threatening major economic and environmental harm. Despite important
21、developments of the past decadeincluding greater public attention to climate change, dire warnings from scientists, the passage of the Paris Agreement, advances in clean technologies, and increasing climate finance flowsglobal GHG emissions continued to grow driven by economic development in non-OEC
22、D countries as shown in Figure 1. Barring substantive changes in how climate change is addressed, GHG concentrations will continue to rise, temperatures will exceed targeted 1.5 and 2-degree Celsius limits, and climate impacts will be increasingly felt, with the poor and disenfranchised disproportio
23、nately affected. Figure 1: CO2 Emission Growth, 1995-2018 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Fossil Fuel C02 Emissions Annual t C02 OECD Emissions Non-OECD Emissions 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20
24、17 2018 Average annual emissions growth (1995-2018): OECD: 0.1% Non-OECD: 3.6% Source: Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries - 2019 Report, EUR 29849 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2019; World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data file
25、s. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW-CARBON, RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT Transformative Climate Finance: A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 6 As part of global climate change efforts, developing countries4 have an opportunity for low-carbon, resili
26、ent development that maximizes economic growth and modernization. Despite emitting less on a historical basis, the current size and growth rates of developing country emissions mean they must be part of the global climate solution. Fortunately, a pathway for low-carbon, climate resilient development
27、 also offers modern, efficient technology, growth in expanding sectors, job creation, and investment. A successful transition to cleaner development pathways must also factor in the winners and losers through this process to ensure a just transition. In a full climate transition, workers in carbon-i
28、ntensive industries and other “brown” sectors may face job displacement as regions dependent on fossil fuels experience dampening impacts on local economies. Government and international stakeholders must monitor people and regions negatively affected by a move to climate and clean energy modalities
29、, and put in place programs to mitigate related damages and provide opportunities in the cleaner economy. 4 For purposes of this analysis, developing countries refers to non-Annex I countries per UNFCCC classification. Transformative Climate Finance: A new approach for climate finance to achieve low
30、-carbon resilient development in developing countries 7 The scope and scale of changes needed for economies and societies to achieve low-carbon resilient development are immense, requiring substantive transformation of the involved economies. The climate change mitigation and adaptation actions requ
31、ired permeate nearly every aspect of economy and society (see Table 1). This relates both to sectors with direct impact on climate change (e.g., energy and agriculture) as well as those with second-order but no less profound impacts (e.g., urban planning and trade). Table 1: Climate change demands a
32、ction across socioeconomic sectors AreaMitigation prioritiesAdaptation priorities Energy System Transitions Increase low-carbon energy Decrease shares of fossil fuels without carbon capture and storage Scale up energy efficiency of generation, transmission, distribution, and storage Strengthen exist
33、ing power infrastructure against extreme weather and temperatures Improve water management within the energy system Land and Ecosystem Transitions Support substantial forest preservation, reforestation, and afforestation Reduce food waste and increase efficiency of food production Encourage dietary
34、shifts to reduce emissions and land-use pressures Increase efficiency of irrigation through water-efficient practices Establish efficient livestock systems and adopt climate- smart crops and crop management approaches Urban and Infrastructure System Transitions Implement technology-focused building
35、measures including increased energy efficiency and fuel-switching Promote shifts towards low- and zero- emission mass transit Promote smart cities through digital transformation and automation Develop sustainable water management systems, support wastewater recycling and storm water diversion Indust
36、rial System Transition Substantially reduce the emissions intensity of industrial production through energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage, and other technologies Promote product substitution and circular production systems Prioritize infrastructure resilience and water management Invest in
37、technological innovation to improve efficiency of resource use Source: Vivid Economics, based on IPCC.2018a. Global Warming of 1.5C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5C above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Stre
38、ngthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change. Transformation of this scale demands a high volume of investment. Cost estimates vary based on sectors covered, data, and methodologies used5, but there is broad consensus that investment needs for low-carbon, resilient transition in dev
39、eloping countries is measured in the trillions of dollars (not billions) and that current financial flows fall far short. Box 1 sheds more light on the resource requirements to address climate change mitigation and adaptation. 5 For more detail, see the background research to this report in Vivid Ec
40、onomics. 2020. Transformative Climate Finance: Options to enhance international climate finance flows for transformative climate action. Transformative Climate Finance: A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon resilient development in developing countries 8 Box 1: Climate needs and c
41、limate finance Climate needs refer to the resource requirements to address climate change mitigation and adaptation. Different metrics and methodologies can be used to estimate these resource requirements. Accordingly, a multitude of estimates are available in the existing literature on the subject.
42、8 The metric used in this report is the annual volume of gross investments described in the 2016 New Climate Economy (NCE) report.9 It estimates $ 4 trillion annual gross investment needs in developing countries infrastructure up to 2030 consistent with a below two degrees global warming trajectory.
43、 The NCE report argues that clean infrastructure is not more costly than business as usual because higher investments needs are compensated by fuel savings. The main challenge lies in shifting ongoing infrastructure investments from brown to green. On a global level, these shifts include a scaling-d
44、own of upstream fossil fuel investments by about 30 percent and a scaling-up of investments in energy efficiency and low-carbon energy generation, including renewables, by about the same percentage. This is a major change in investment structure up to 2030 and even more substantive changes are requi
45、red beyond 2030. Total current climate finance deployed in non-OECD countries are estimated to stand at about $ 356 billion (annual average 2017-2018).10 These numbers include private climate finance, domestic public climate finance, and international public climate finance. This is less than 10 per
46、cent of the clean gross investment needs. This means that about 90 percent of business-as-usual infrastructure investments still needs to be shifted from brown to green. International public climate finance was estimated at $58 billion in 2017 following an increasing trend over the last two decades.
47、 Around 95 percent of this finance was provided as development finance with climate co-benefits (climate-related development finance) and the remaining through dedicated climate funds such as GCF, GEF, and CIF. Both types of climate finance are similar in structure: two-thirds were spent for mitigat
48、ion and one-third for adaptation; more than 95 percent was delivered through loans and grants; and the regional allocation reflected general development needs.11 8 For more details on this literature findings, see Vivid Economics. 2020. Transformative Climate Finance: Options to enhance internationa
49、l climate finance flows for transformative climate action. 9 New Climate Economy. 2016. The sustainable infrastructure imperative: Financing for better growth and development. Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. 10 CPI. 2019. Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2019. London: CPI. 11 Vivid Economics. 2020. Transformative Climate Finance: Options to enhance international climate finance flows for transformative climate action. Transformative Climate Finance: A new approach for climate finance to achieve low-carbon