1、2020 global life sciences outlook Creating new value, building blocks for the future Greg Reh | Greg Reh is the Deloitte Global Life Sciences rare diseases, previously believed to be incurable, are on the precipice of real cures.1 Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning approaches are rais
2、ing expectations that therapy discovery and development may not only be more innovative, but also more time- and cost-effective. Data-driven approaches have the potential to create value across manufacturing, the supply chain, and the entire health care ecosystem. As technology and behavioral scienc
3、e converge, the focus is increasingly shifting to disease prevention.2 Consumer wearables now have medical-grade sensors,3 and telemedicine, remote monitoring, and virtual trials are reducing complexity for patients.4 Medical algorithms and connected devices are delivering data everywhere.5 In 2020,
4、 biopharma and medtech organizations will be looking for new ways to create value and new metrics to make sense of all the data. As patient-centric models have been adopted within the industry, they are now informing operational approaches and setting the foundation of personalized health care.6 The
5、 human experiences of patients, the workforce, and ecosystem partnersare interrelated and affect business outcomes. With the goal of creating value for all stakeholders, organizations can aspire to find real value for themselves and their shareholders in the coming year. 2020 global life sciences ou
6、tlook 3 “It would be wonderful if we could have a common framework that applies across customer, partner, and workforce. If there is a common way to think about experience across all three parts of the ecosystem, this could drive an enterprises competitive advantage.”13 Creating new value T O PREPAR
7、E FOR the future and remain relevant in the ever-evolving business landscape, biopharma and medtech companies need to discover sources of significant new value creation. As data-driven technologies provide organizations with treasure troves of information, and automation assumes mundane tasks, new t
8、alent models are emerging for the future of work based on purpose and meaning. Cultivating human strengthsfor probing data, curating information, and asking the right questionscan help humans work with technology to think exponentially. Is it time for the next generation of key performance indicator
9、s (KPIs)? What are biopharma and medtech companies measuring now, and what could they be measuring in 2020 to find meaningful insights, improve the human experience, and create more value? The answer may well lie in strategizing on the basis of metrics that matter.7 HUMAN VALUE OF A TECHNOLOGY ACQUI
10、SITION: FLATIRON HEALTHS ARMY OF MEDICAL CURATORS In cancer treatment and research, experts say the majority of value is in unstructured data, the free text fields of pathology reports and clinical notes.8 Today, while technology can “read” these fields, extracting the most useful nuggets still requ
11、ires humans.9 To tackle this hard problem, Flatiron Health realized they needed more than technology. They hired an army of trained medical professionals to painstakingly curate large streams of unstructured data and train its machine learningmodels. By normalizing both unstructured and structured d
12、ata from electronic health records (EHRs), Flatiron Health made them more useful for clinicians and researchers.10 By accelerating cancer research,11 the startup created new valuewith humans and technologyand was acquired by Roche for US$1.9 billion in 2018.12 Creating new value, building blocks for
13、 the future 4 MEASURING THE HUMAN EXPERIENCE Biopharma and medtech organizations could benefit by implementing a holistic strategy to measure the human experience for all stakeholders (figure 1).14 While advances in technology appear to drive more efficiency, leaders should more deeply consider ways
14、 to increase value and meaning across the boardfor workers, customers (patients), and ecosystem partners (vendors, alliances, advocacy groups). Successful organizations are not just tracking satisfaction but mapping touchpoints and determining the ease of interactions in the ecosystem.15 Executives
15、in marketing, human resources (HR), operations, and information technology (IT) should be looking for opportunities to break down silos and collaborate. Working together, they could create and track a common set of experience measures for workers, customers/patients, and ecosystem partners that will
16、 lead to better business outcomes.16 Creating value for patients, care partners, and care teams FOCUS ON A HOLISTIC PATIENT EXPERIENCE A holistic patient experience is about understanding the experience of a patient living with a specific disease or condition. By mapping all the touchpoints that pat
17、ients may experience throughout their journey and with their care teams, an empathic solution could be built to address their needsfrom diagnosis to maintenance. Providing a holistic patient experience could reduce complexity for patients and caregivers. One way to manage that experience and create
18、value through technology could be a patient hub (figure 2) that digitally connects patients and their caregivers. Source: Art Mazor et al., Measuring human relationships and experiences: Blurring lines and shifting sands, Deloitte Insights, June 20, 2019; Deloitte analysis. FIGURE 1 Connections betw
19、een stakeholder (human) experiences and business outcomes Customer experience Business outcomes Workforce experience Ecosystem partner experience 2020 global life sciences outlook 5 A holistic patient experience could not only help patients manage their disease, but also improve adherence and outcom
20、es. For example, medication adherence tools can help identify gaps in care, and intelligent safety monitoring can predict adverse events through wearables and provide early intervention. Research can be elevated by rich and comprehensive patient data and a learning health care system where clinical
21、trials are designed around real-world patients. DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF CONSUMER NEEDS Medtech companies should have a deeper understanding of the end user. By creating scenarios that demonstrate how new and existing devices and services could improve patient outcomes, they may also create value for
22、 key health care stakeholders.17 A better understanding of consumer needs could lead to the development of more user-friendly devices that could be sold directly to the consumer. In a new category of productsthe self-fitting air conduction hearing aidBose offers a device that does not need the assis
23、tance of a hearing care professional. No preprogramming or hearing test is necessary. To create value, medtech companies should also explore ways to offer patient-centered services in nonclinical settings.18 CONNECTED PATIENT HUB CONTENT* Personalized content to further patient experience Kevin Dowd
24、, “2019 and 12 big things: IPOs, SoftBank and more with a unicorn CEO,” Pitchbook, November 10, 2019. FIGURE 5 Leading biotech IPOs of 2019 In US$ millions $348.5 $317.4 $191.3 $186.3 $175.8 BridgeBio Pharma June 27, 2019 $390.0 10 x Genomics September 12, 2019 Gossamer Bio February 8, 2019 Turning
25、Point Therapeutics April 17, 2019 SpringWorks Therapeutics September 13, 2019 Alector February 7, 2019 Creating new value, building blocks for the future 12 Source: Amy Brown, Bloated on arrival? Biotechs weightiest new issues, EvaluatePharma Vantage, October 22, 2019. FIGURE 6 Biotechs blockbuster
26、fl otations in US markets In US$ billions Market cap at fl oat Market cap as of October 22, 2019 Genmab Moderna BioNTech Morphosys NantKwest Vir Biotechnology Allogene Juno BridgeBio Rubius Galapagos Axovant $12B $4B $4.8B $3.5B $2.5B $2.3B $2B $1.8B $1.6B $8.5B $1.8B $1.7B $1.6B $9.5B $1.5B $1B $2B
27、 $2B $0.2B $4B $8B $5.5B $14B $0.2B 2020 global life sciences outlook 13 complex data and identify small molecules in pharmaceutical and metabolomics laboratories.71 Atrys Healths acquisition of Real Life Data SLU, both based in Madrid, Spain. Real Life Data specializes in health big data and real-w
28、orld evidence solutions that are expected to enhance the work of Atrys in predictive medicine and deepen knowledge about the evolution and dimension of pathologies, trends in diagnoses, and treatments.72 Rise of health-based technology unicorns As of November 2019, United States and European venture
29、 capitalists hold a record US$144 billion in uninvested capital.73 Some experts believe the IPO market for US-listed tech companies is in a “megacycle,” and despite some companies not meeting expectations, 2020 may be the fifth year of growth in the tech IPO market.74 In the first three quarters of
30、2019, a number of health-based technology companies joined the ranks of unicorn75 status, which are privately held startups with a value over US$1 billion76 (figure 7).77 The direct listing: A new way to raise capital In late 2019, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) filed with the US Securities and
31、Exchange Commission (SEC) to allow companies going public to raise capital through a direct listing, instead of an IPO.78 The direct listing model will allow companies to list existing shares held by investors on a public exchangerather than offering new shares for trading, as is done in an IPO. Thi
32、s model allows bypassing intermediaries and avoids dilution of a companys existing stock. Note: Data as of December 6, 2019. Source: Andy White and Priyamvada Mathur, Meet the unicorn class of 2019, PitchBook, March 5, 2019. US$197M US$1.1B US$143M US$1.0B US$391M US$1.0B US$316M US$1.3B US$635M US$
33、2.0B US$400M US$1.3B hims San Francisco, CA Calm San Francisco, CA Health Catalyst Salt Lake City, UT Doctolib Paris, FR Babylon London, EN CMR Surgical Cambridge, EN FIGURE 7 Health-based technology unicorns that passed US$1 billion in valuation in 2019 Total raised Current valuation Creating new v
34、alue, building blocks for the future 14 Some experts say many more companies, in particular, technology companies,79 may be considering direct listings as an avenue for going public in 2020.80 Software licensing trends Compliance, risk management, and product life cycle management (PLM) software app
35、lications are likely to continue playing a dominant role in life sciences.81 The life sciences applications market is expected to reach US$8.9 billion by 2022, compared with US$7.7 billion in 2017, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9 percent.82 In 2019, innovators appear to be making inve
36、stments in new technologies for drug discovery and real-world evidence.83 Computational medicine has been pivotal in streamlining the process of drug development, and growth has been supported by funding provided by the US National Science Foundation and the US National Institutes of Health. The com
37、putational medicine and drug discovery software market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.1 percent from 2018 to 2023, and is expected to reach US$7.87 billion by the end of 2023.84 Cloud investments In 2019, cloud investments became one of the top priorities.85 As cloud technology continues to matu
38、re, regulated organizations, including life sciences, have not only begun trusting the technology more, but seeing it as a competitive advantage.86 Cloud migration and data modernization are mutually reinforcing trends, and Deloitte research shows they are reaching a tipping point among Multiyear co
39、llaboration to use quantum computing for drug discovery Analysis of real-world oncology data to generate insights and real-world evidence Use Insitros platform for developing disease models for nonalcoholic steatohepatitis Use Iktoss virtual design technology for discovery of small molecules Use Ikt
40、oss virtual design technology for discovery of small molecules Develop an AI innovation lab for designing personalized therapies Standardization and organization of Pfi zers data for integration with the companys immune system model Develop a virtual innovation lab for analysis of real-world data FI
41、GURE 8 Software licensing deals/partnerships through Q3 2019 Source: 33 pharma companies using artifi cial intelligence in drug discovery, BenchSci Blog, October 2019. Deloitte Insights | COMPANY DEALS WITH SOFTWARE COMPANIES 2020 global life sciences outlook 15 large and medium-sized businesses. Th
42、e leading drivers of cloud migration are security and data protection.87 From 66 life sciences and health care companies surveyed by Deloitte, 85 percent are implementing or have fully implemented data modernization. In 2020, more enterprise resource planning (ERP) buyers are expected to move to the
43、 cloud,88 and businesses that use SAP solutions are making the move to take advantage of cloud flexibility and scalability.89 Worldwide public cloud service revenue is expected to grow 17 percent in 2020.90 RETURN ON CAPITAL AND DELIVERING VALUE Deteriorating return on capital Return on capital (ROC
44、) provides insights for organizations that are considering potential partners and new opportunities. While the traditional focus is on profits, margins, and revenue, ROC can provide a fresh perspective. It could be one of the key metrics that matter for 2020providing new understanding of the efficie
45、ncy of allocating capital under control to drive profitability.91 Deloittes research discovered that ROC declined for drug intermediaries and retailers, health plans and providers, and life sciences manufacturers, from 2011 to 2017 (figure 9). Life sciences companies saw the biggest dropfrom 17 perc
46、ent in 2011 to 11 percent in 2017. ROC for medtech companies fell from 14 percent to 10 percent in the same period. Generally, life sciences companies had higher profit margins than companies in other sectors but demonstrated lower ROC than other organizations in the health care ecosystem, such as d
47、rug inter- mediaries and retailers, over the seven-year period.92 Sources: Teresa Leste, Yakir Siegal, and Maulesh Shukla, Return on capital performance in life sciences and health care: How have organizations performed and where are best bets going forward?, Deloitte, April 30, 2019. Deloitte Insig
48、hts | FIGURE 9 Return on capital performance in life sciences and health care nosedived between 2011 and 2017 Drug intermediaries and retailers Life sciences manufacturers Health plans and providers 2011 6.4% 2011 13.2% 2011 13.8% PharmaciesWholesalersPBMsPharmaMedtechHealth plansHospitals 2017 6.1%
49、 2017 12.0% 2017 9.9% 2011 16.6% 2011 13.0% 2011 17.9% 2011 19.7% 2017 11.9% 2017 12.1% 2017 14.7% 2017 17.8% Creating new value, building blocks for the future 16 Pricing pressure was a key factor for declining ROC for medtech companies, in addition to lower R amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and other degenerative musculoskeletal conditions; rar
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