1、T R A NSP ORT 103 104 Current situation and challenges Solutions, projects and scale-up Transportation in its many forms currently produces over 1,200 MtCO per year, 30% of total emissions in the EU. Liquid fossil fuels drive most air, marine, road and rail movements, from most captive usage to less
2、 captive (see figure below). Fossil liquids are dense in energy, convenient for logistics and not easy to replace. In Europe, they currently account for 72% of primary energy use. The daunting challenge ahead is to free transportation from liquid fossil fuel usage1 and to develop the new clean techn
3、ologies and associated infrastructure that will enable sustainable and convenient private and public transportation. Three types of transportation energy sources synthetic liquid fuels, hydrogen and electricity combined with new mobility modes, are directly contributing to decarbonization in all for
4、ms of transportation. Demand for transportation energy will fall from 360 Mtoe today to around 200 Mtoe by 2050, made up of: Synthetic liquids: 40 Mtoe2. Biomass liquids: 30 Mtoe. Hydrogen and gases: 50 Mtoe. Electricity: around 50 Mtoe. A small share of fossil fuels: 25 Mtoe, down from 340 Mtoe tod
5、ay. An array of technologies is needed, from higher to lower liquid dependency: A FU N DA M EN TA L SH I F T AWAY FROM FOS SI L FU EL DER I V ED EN ERG Y S OU RC E S , R EPL AC ED BY C L E A N A LT ER N AT I V E S , A N D SU PP ORT ED BY C H A RG I NG A N D G I G A-S C A L E B AT T ERY I N FR A S T
6、RUC T U R E 1. Synthetic liquid fuels - mostly for air and maritime use Giga-scale synthetic fuels production facilities are needed before 2030, close to transport hubs, ports and airports. They will synthetize at scale: Carbon-based synthetic fuels such as kerosene, methanol or ethanol in plants co
7、nsuming green hydrogen and carbon captured from industry (circular economy in industrial hubs). Ammonia liquid fuels, especially for marine transportation, with its dedicated logistics. The production of green ammonia from green hydrogen can also serve the chemical industry. Carbon-based synthetic f
8、uels can be used by nearly all standard airplanes and vessels. To be able to run on ammonia, vessels need to be retrofitted with dedicated fuel cells and ammonia management systems. 2. Pure hydrogen for intermediary marine, road and rail use Pure hydrogen in its different forms, combined with fuel c
9、ells, is a solution when liquids are not required for smaller range journeys (more space available onboard) but where electricity is not a solution (battery limits and charging times). Beyond ferries and trains, Europe must focus on trucks, buses and other road heavy duty vehicles: develop its own m
10、odels of vehicles, implement infrastructures including charging points along corridors and for captive fleet. 3. Ease the adoption and use of e-mobility The European electric vehicle market is expected to reach six to seven million per year by 20303, with most net-zero scenarios requiring 80% of pas
11、senger car stock to be electric by 2050. The key to this is a huge expansion in private and public charging infrastructure and access to vast quantities of Li-ion batteries. 4. Cheaper, cleaner and more efficient batteries made in Europe Industrial scale battery production in Europe will be achieved
12、 by the development of ten li-ion gigafactories in 2030, supported by large scale battery recycling facilities to ensure reuse of vital components and limit environmental impacts. 5. New forms of urban mobility The ongoing proliferation of high-emission private motor vehicles carrying individuals is
13、 not compatible with the achievement of Europes net-zero targets. Yet public transport alternatives are not always accessible, with disjointed infrastructure, scattered data and multiple payment points. Public, shared and free-floating transport systems must be developed, providing door-to-door flex
14、ibility, reliability and convenience and offering a viable alternative to cars. Streamlined mobility systems offering multiple modes of shared transportation across Europe will be essential, accessed and paid for securely using standardized, user- friendly IT platforms. Private and public operators
15、must work jointly to solve the data, business models and technology challenges. “We need political quotas for the use of synthetic fuels in aviation to accelerate mass production.” Markus Pieper, Member of the European Parliament TRANSPORT LIQUIDS ELECTRICITY Heavy Duty Long haulage Small vehicles G
16、ASES Ferries International shipping Local InternationalIntercontinental LIQUID DEPENDENCY AIR MARINE ROAD RAIL 1-2 hours 2-6 hours 6 hours to 30 days Freight Liquid biofuels represent a promising alternative but are not cost-competitive Solution: Scale production to drive down the cost of e-fuels fo
17、r shipping (methanol) Key impacts: 7.7 MtCOe, 3.6 billion total market, 55,000 jobs in 2030 The goal of the project is to create five port facilities across the EU, each dedicated to the production of 1 million tons of e-fuel (methanol) each year for European and international cargo shipping, with a
18、 total electrolyzer capacity of 10.5 GW. The project will result in 5 million tons of green liquid e-fuel for ships produced per year as of 2030, consuming 850,000 tons of hydrogen and 6.875 MtCO per year. Identify five European cargo ports ideally coupled with airports (such as Hamburg, Amsterdam,
19、Valencia or Piraeus/Athens). In each location, build one facility by 2030 which enables an additional yearly production of 1 million tons of synthetic hydrocarbon fuels for cargo shipping (methanol). A total electrolyzer capacity of 10.5 GW is needed, either built on-site or streamlined with hydroge
20、n provided by pipes. To ensure a genuinely sustainable production of alternative fuel, the facilities must have access to a large supply of green electricity, ideally sourced from nearby offshore wind or solar power plants. In addition to the new facilities, incentivizing policies and technological
21、progress (engine energy efficiency, e-fuel production processes) is required for developing of the methanol fuel market and to encourage the retrofitting of existing ships which will run on methanol. Within this project dedicated to e-fuels for the marine sector, additional synergies can be achieved
22、 through the simultaneous provision of e-kerosene to airports, as described in project #33. Key players to involve include public authorities, energy providers, port operators, shipping lines operators, and freight forwarders. Projects that inspired this analysis: Copenhagen municipality partnership
23、 with transport operators (Orsted, Maersk, SAS, DSV Panalpina) for an e-fuel factory by 2030. #34 Innovation bet Drive to market scale Acceleration and scale-up Synthetic liquid fuels for long-distance air and maritime useT R A N S P O RT 55 T E C H Q U E S T S TO A CC E L E R AT E E U R O P E S R E
24、 CO V E R Y A N D PAV E T H E WAY TO C L I M AT E N E U T R A L I T Y Why this technology and project are needed to reach net-zero Impacts 7.7 MtCOe avoided 3.6 billion total market 2.6 billion cumulated investment by 2030, 0.3 billion yearly average (2020-2030) 3.4 billion turnover in 2030 55,000 t
25、otal jobs 4,000 construction jobs for investment 51,000 production jobs for turnover 61.8 MtCOe avoided 28.3 billion total market 37.9 billion cumulated investment by 2050, 1.3 billion yearly average (2020-2050) 28.3 billion turnover in 2050 424,000 total jobs 19,000 construction jobs for investment
26、 405,000 production jobs for turnover C L I M AT E I M PAC T ECO N O M I C I M PAC T J O B S 20302050 While international shipping represents 2 to 3% of all greenhouse gas emissions in the world, maritime transport accounts for 3.7% of CO emissions in the EU, 30% of which are produced by container s
27、hips. The European Commission published its first report on the matter in 2019, studying 11,600 ships over 5,000 gross tonnage of various sizes (container ships, roll-on and roll-out passenger ships, bulk carriers, tankers), representing almost 40% of the global merchant fleet. The European Commissi
28、on already implemented compulsory emission and fuel monitoring for high tonnage cargo or passenger ships in 2013. Several technological and operational improvements have been proposed to reduce this environmental impact, such as reducing speed or implementing energy efficient systems. But LNG, the c
29、leanest fuel currently available at an industrial- scale, still emits CO: therefore, it remains necessary to find a zero-emission fuel for shipping, as encouraged by the European Parliament in the context of the Green Deal. E-fuels (methanol, hydrogen or ammonia) are produced from electricity, which
30、 can come from renewable sources to minimize further carbon emissions. The hydrogen produced from electrolysis can be used directly or synthesized with carbon monoxide or nitrogen to produce methanol or ammonia respectively. Alternative fuels need to become competitive with classic fuels in terms of
31、 cost. Additionally, infrastructure and typical operations, like storage and security protocols, will also need to be adapted. https:/ec.europa.eu/clima/news/commission-publishes-first-annual-eu-report-CO-emissions-maritime-transport_en https:/ec.europa.eu/clima/news/commission-publishes-first-annua
32、l-eu-report-CO-emissions-maritime-transport_en https:/www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0005_EN.html #34 109 110 S C A L E U P G R EEN N - L I QU I D A M MON I A PRODUC TION AND LOGIS TIC S INFR A S TRUC TURE FOR LONG - DIS TA NC E SH I PPI NG Green ammonia and energy production facili
33、ty at large ports Project opportunity and ambition I N A N U T S H EL L Issue: Ammonia is a promising zero-emissions fuel for shipping, but is still produced mainly from grey hydrogen and remains much more expensive than traditional fuel Solution: Test and deploy at scale production facilities of gr
34、een ammonia for use as e-fuel for maritime shipping Key impacts: 4.3 billion total market, 65,000 jobs in 2030 In line with Project #36 (1,160 ships converted to ammonia fuel-cell propulsion engine), the goal of the project is to reach a yearly production capacity of 5 Mt of green ammonia fuel for E
35、uropean and international cargo shipping, consuming 840,000 tons of hydrogen per year as of 2030. The scaling up of the project will follow the technological advancements in ammonia-powered ships, as the first engines developed by the ShipFC Project will be finalized in 2023. The project will optimi
36、ze the process of sustainable ammonia production using green hydrogen, to drive progress in maritime ammonia-powered propulsion and deploy at a large-scale ammonia storage and refuelling. Identify large cargo ports in the EU, with easy access to renewable energy (ideally sourced from nearby offshore
37、 wind or solar power plants) to ensure a genuinely sustainable production of alternative fuel: preferably Southern Europe such as Spain or Portugal. Build facilities in these locations to enable a yearly production of 5 Mt of green ammonia fuel for cargo shipping by 2025. For 2030, the project aims
38、at a total production of five million tons of green ammonia (enough to power 1,160 cargo ships per year). Key players to involve include public authorities, energy providers, port operators, shipping lines operators, and freight forwarders. Projects that inspired this analysis: ShipFC consortium pro
39、ject, NoGAPS Project. #35 Innovation bet Drive to market scale Acceleration and scale-up Synthetic liquid fuels for long-distance air and maritime useT R A N S P O RT 55 T E C H Q U E S T S TO A CC E L E R AT E E U R O P E S R E CO V E R Y A N D PAV E T H E WAY TO C L I M AT E N E U T R A L I T Y Wh
40、y this technology and project are needed to reach net-zero Impacts Counted in ships converted to green ammonia. 4.3 billion total market 2.6 billion cumulated investment by 2030, 0.3 billion yearly average (2020-2030) 4.1 billion turnover in 2030 65,000 total jobs 4,000 construction jobs for investm
41、ent 61,000 production jobs for turnover Counted in ships converted to green ammonia. 28.3 billion total market 8.3 billion cumulated investment by 2030, 0.3 billion yearly average (2020-2050) 16.3 billion turnover in 2050 249,000 total jobs 4,000 construction jobs for investment 245,000 production j
42、obs for turnover C L I M AT E I M PAC T ECO N O M I C I M PAC T J O B S 20302050 Ammonia (NH) is traditionally used in the agricultural sector to produce fertilizers (10.2 million tons of such nitrogen fertilizer are used in the EU). Recently its application in shipping fuel has been extensively dis
43、cussed, since its use does not emit CO due to the lack of a carbon atom in the NH3 molecule. This makes it an ideal technology for a zero- emissions economy. It can be stored in high temperatures in a liquid form, though adapted safety measures must be implemented. Ammonia can also be produced anywh
44、ere, allowing Europe to close the gap with leading nations in this technology (such as China, contributing 40% of the global supply of ammonia). However, ammonia production needs to be carbon-neutral, using green hydrogen obtained from electrolysis. Nowadays, ammonia production heavily relies on fos
45、sil fuels and is far from carbon-neutral, emitting 1.8% of all global CO emissions. Furthermore, ammonia is still much more expensive and less available than heavy fuel oil traditionally used by vessel operators. Thirdly, ammonia-powered ships have yet to be designed, as no suitable ship engine exis
46、ts for now. Several European projects are dedicated to proving the feasibility of ammonia ships before 2025. Launched in January 2020, the ShipFC project gathers 14 European firms and organizations to create the first commercial ship powered by green ammonia by late 2023. The initiative is already l
47、ooking into retrofitting different kinds of ships with ammonia fuel cells and has received 10 million of funding from the EU. MAN Energy Solutions is also working on a two-stroke ammonia ship engine, to be showcased by 2024. Finally, the NoGAPS Project, launched in May 2020 studies the challenges fo
48、r ammonia supply chains that must be addressed to allow large-scale deployment of NH-powered ships in Europe. See calculation in the Excel spreadsheet https:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Agri-environmental_indicator_-_mineral_fertiliser_consumption #35 111 112 DEPLOY A M MON
49、I A- FU EL ED V E S SEL S FOR LONG - DIS TA NC E SH I PPI NG Retrofit existing vessels to shift from fossil fuel combustion engines to ammonia fuel-cell propulsion engines Project opportunity and ambition I N A N U T S H EL L Issue: Carbon-free alternatives to fuel oil have yet to be adopted at a large scale by cargo transportation Solution: Launch demonstration projects of long-range zero-emissions maritime ammonia fuel Key impacts: 13.6 MtCOe, 5.8 billion cumulated investment, 9,000 jobs in 2030 The goal of the project is to launch, as
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