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1、This Year, Next Year China Media Forecasts 2020 Summer Edition GroupM China All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise,
2、without written permission from the copyright owners. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, but the publishers and copyright owners cannot accept liability with respect to errors or omissions. Readers will appreciate that the data are only as up-to-date as availability,
3、compilation and printing schedules allow and are subject to change. Shanghai Offi ce 20F, WPP Campus, No.399 Hengfeng Road, Jingan District, Shanghai Tel: 021-2307 7700 Guangzhou Offi ce 8F, Development Center, 3 Lin Jiang Road, Pearl River New City, Tianhe District, Guangzhou Tel: 020-2881 8288 8F,
4、 The JinBao Building, No. 89, JinBao Street, Dongcheng District, Beijing Tel: 010-8523 3679 Beijing Offi ce Unit 221, INNO, No.498, Zhujiang Road, Xuanwu District, Nanjing Tel: 025-8689 8139 Nanjing Offi ce Sarah Zhang GMK Director AUTHOR: Yolanda Ko GMK Manager Lily Lou GMK Supervisor Scan to follo
5、w GroupM China Scan to follow GroupM Knowledge CONTENT 07 11 12 13 14 15 16 Internet E-commerce Social Search Online Video In-Feed Adveritising Programmatic Buying 17 21 25 27 27 28 Traditional TV Outdoor Radio Print Newspapers Magazines 03 05 Executive Summary Tables During Q1 2020, the ad revenue
6、of Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, JD and Pinduoduo accounted for 85% share of total online ad market.5 The Matthew Effect accelerated industrial integration and elimination. The epidemic boosted the concentration of users and traffi c, strengthened the leading position of internet in China media market an
7、d made leading media organizations stronger. This situation also drove traditional media to rethink, thus further advanced the reformation and innovation of the media industrys supply-side. In the post-epidemic period, e-commerce live streaming with explosive growth became effective touchpoints and
8、conversion points for consumer communication. Participation of many brands, entrepreneurs and official media brought impetus. Whether e-commerce live streaming will become a new normal in the future or not, whether it will be a fl ash in the pan or a new component of the media matrix, it still needs
9、 to be tested by the market. Consumers: self-defi ning a balance between personality and rationality Thanks to information equality, consumers are more independently pursuing what they like E-commerce and news platforms achieved personalized content push. The method of delivering information is affe
10、cted by the mode of online content distribution, changing from centralization to decentralization then to re-centralization. Users do not simply gain information passively but have more choices when it comes content and are easier to get content to instantly suit their demands. In terms of product c
11、hoice, consumers have more information sources to get to know and to compare product features and value, and therefore choose the most cost-effi cient product according to their criteria. The target groups with certain interests emerged accordingly: to choose on-demand content according to their pre
12、ferences, to communicate with people from various culture circles on different platforms, and even to buy derivative products within certain interest groups on vertical platforms consumers are able to demonstrate their initiative on making choice. In addition, along with consumers growing initiative
13、 and self-consciousness, media channels also optimized and upgraded their logic of content distribution: the emergence of short video and social media lowed the threshold of content production and distribution as well; lite programs and applications accelerated the efficiency of information delivery
14、 and created more suitable applicable contexts, etc. Therefore, consumers pursuit of personalization could be realized. The post-epidemic consumption behavior tends to be more rational Affected by the epidemic, income of residents during Q1 2020 fluctuated. From January to May 2020, monthly bank sav
15、ings increased 8% increased 8%+ YoY, reaching a height of 10.4% in May6. In addition, regarding to personal deposit, YoY growth was 13% between January and May7. Retaliatory deposit emerges ahead of retaliatory consumption which reflects that peoples consumption attitude tends to be rational under t
16、he situation of new normal: in pursuit of convenience, effi ciency and eager to have a sense of possession. It can also explain why VIP membership and consumption coupon are popular. The spread of coronavirus worldwide has made overseas online shopping and purchasing abroad seem nearly impossible. A
17、fter experiencing and witnessing different anti-epidemic measures domestically and abroad, most consumers strengthened their sense of national pride and enhanced their confidence in domestic brands. Especially time-honored brands proactively chose to leverage this advantage to do marketing with elem
18、ents of nostalgia and crossover. Executive Summary Macro economy: national economy under pressure, new breakthrough expected The new normal of national economy The outbreak of the COVID-19 has had a signifi cantly effect on international order and the complex relations between major powers, which ha
19、s disturbed the global economic fundamentals and weakened the expectation for global economy development. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that global GDP will drop by 5%1, leading to the worst recession since World War II . China achieved initial success again
20、st the epidemic during the first half of this year, while the overall social economic development is still facing unprecedented challenges. Negative GDP growth rarely occurs and no GDP goal is set for the situation this year because macro economy faces so many internal and external uncertainties and
21、 growth tends to be harder under the objective of ensuring six priorities and stability in six areas for steady economic momentum2. Since work has resumed, improvements have occurred and this is refl ected from data of supply-side: up to June, industrial production has recovered to some extent; the
22、manufacturing industry PMI rebounded since March and continued to be above the threshold separating contraction from expansion for four months; the non-manufacturing PMI also embraced recovery for four consecutive months3. The policy of stabilizing growth exerted its influence and retail sales of co
23、nsumer goods kept slowing the pace of decline; under the boost of relieving the restriction of peoples mobility, stimulating consumption and three public holidays, consumption started to recover. While comparatively there still lacked power to recover the demand- side, and consumption needed more ti
24、me to recover. Infl uenced by the international situation, exports still suffered a depression. The imbalance of supply and demand will encumber the overall economic resurgence, and the growth of demand will still under pressure due to the regional re-emergence of the epidemic in China. The long-ter
25、m fi ght against the epidemic will be the new normal for the remainder of this year and likely for the next two years therefore, both business operation and peoples daily lives will have to adapt to such environment. Due to macro economy pressures, advertisers have become more prudent towards media
26、investment. International brands are finding it hard to gain profits from support policies and macro stimulation, and as a result many brands have cut their budgets or suspended or delayed future media investment, preferring to wait and see. Strengthen development of new infrastructure and uplift ma
27、rket confi dence In early March, the central government declared a series of new policies to accelerate new infrastructure construction and to enhance the development of 5G, AI, Industrial Internet of Things, smart city, education, medical care and so on. All of these based on three aspects of infra
28、structure in information, convergence and innovation. The driving force of the construction of new infrastructure on domestic demands shows its time-lag effect when extended to consumers. While new infrastructure construction does have direct and positive effect to ensure employment, the market enti
29、ties, and the stable supply chain. Especially the construction of 5G in a large scale and its popularity will boost and put the integration of national broadcasting network and 5G into practice. The development of technologies, such as VR, 8K, AI and IoT, further energizes the prosperity of the indu
30、strial chain, meanwhile, brings more opportunities to brand marketing. Media and media consumption: digital economy accelerates its penetration and expansion. Content is king which reinforces concentration on top media The epidemic accelerates the development and consolidation of online media consum
31、ption habits Parallel to the outbreak of the epidemic, consumers were relying heavily on online shopping, helping the internet sector achieve the dividend of users by chance. Seen from the fi nancial report of Q1 2020, e-commerce, long and short-form video, and social media platforms achieved higher
32、 growth, and theres still room for top digital media to increase their ad revenues. E-commerce, especially fresh food e-commerce and daily life service apps, penetrates all aspects of life online purchase and home delivery services for daily necessaries, pharmaceuticals and takeout, remote working,
33、cloud conference and online education are in hot pursuit, and the service supply-side has become digitized. Online shopping has accelerated to become the predominant purchase channel, leading online and offline to speed up to integrate. Meanwhile, the epidemic keeps bubbling up and anti-epidemic req
34、uirements compel people to change their way of living and working. It makes the scenarios of home economy and cloud application become more abundant, and new demands will motivate the creation of new tools and new business models. Post - epidemic media consumption trends back to normal, resource con
35、centration to top media further strengthened, while live streaming as popular as an emerging model The media traffic enjoyed a peak during the outbreak of the epidemictraditional TV, OTT, social media, online entertainment, online game and fitness apps saw an outstanding performance. Certain mid-lev
36、el online segments such as fresh food e-commerce, online education and online medical care also grew significantly. In the post-epidemic period, along with social life returning back to normal, some habits formed during the outbreak have remained, and in the meantime, consumers media consumption hab
37、its have reverted back to being rational. Before the outbreak of the epidemic, the trend of market concentration had already appeared: during the first-run period, traffi c of top-10-drama was 6 times larger than that of non-top dramas; and whats more, in terms of rerun, top-10- drama also as 13 tim
38、es as non-top dramas in traffi c4. During the epidemic, audience had more time to choose their preference and the shift of attention happened according to content. Thanks to the efficient and successful control of the epidemic, it is estimated that China advertising spending will exceed RMB 626.2 bi
39、llion, in 2020 dropping down by 2.8%, far better than the expectation of 11.8% on global market. Chinas economy has stepped into the resumption stage, support and stimulus policies are gradually taking effect, therefore, next year is forecast to achieve a considerate positive growth. From another po
40、int of view, even though this black swan event brought enormous negative effect; however, from the upgrading of practitioners to products, from the reshuffl e of business operations and management philosophies, the epidemic is also a catalyst that unexpectedly accelerates industrial change and innov
41、ation. Never waste a good crisis. There is no making without breaking, thus there will be a power of integration generated by the market to improve effi ciency. summary: Note: 1. World Bank: World Economic Outlook, 4th June 2020; International Monetary: Economic Outlook, 24th June 2020 2. Political
42、Bureau of the CPC Central Committee Conference put forward stability in six areas for steady economic momentum on July 2018 for the fi rst time, which meant to ensure stability in employment, fi nancial operations, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment, and expectations. Then it fur
43、ther put forward six priorities on April 2020 for the fi rst time, which meant to ensure security in job, basic living needs, operations of market entities, food and energy security, stable industrial and supply chains, and the normal functioning of primary- level governments 3. The Operational Cond
44、ition of China Purchasing Managers Index in June 2020 by National Bureau of Statistics 4. Due to iResearch conducted revision in 2019, no completed data for this year could be provided, so the drama data cited is for 2018 5. Source from 2019 Financial Annual Report and 2020 Q1 Report, Baidu data inc
45、ludes iQiyi, ByteDance is excluded 6. The Peoples Bank of China: Monthly Financial Statistics Report, January to May 2020 7. The Peoples Bank of China: Monetary Statistics Overview Executive Summary only brands that are advocated by people will have lasting traffi c Against the background of the new
46、 normal, consumers still need to face their own choice of consumption, and they still prefer to choose the brand that they consider to be authoritative and trustworthy, no matter what their media consumption or product/service choices are. The higher brand perception and experience, the higher accep
47、tance consumers will have, bringing the greater conversion rate into actual sales. Therefore, brands need to demonstrate their core value and deliver their brand concept sustainably by advertising, PR events, services and so on; this is still the solid foundation to gain rapid growth during the reco
48、very period. Thus, brands should shift their attention from simply focusing on traffi c to intensive and redefi ned brand building, step from homogenization to differentiation, and move from price competition to value competition. To gain insights from consumer needs and to build smooth communicatio
49、n channels to consumers are still the key components of media strategy. China Media Forecasts 2020 Summer Edition 34 Media, CNY m, net Internet TV Outdoor Radio Newspapers Magazines Media total 2012 55,355 120,302 34,743 15,953 37,828 9,984 274,165 2021f 551,639 68,085 48,344 9,413 4,202 2,334 684,017 2020f 496,972 67,078 46,306 9,404 4,202 2,329 626,292 2019 477,065 82,204 63,783 12,882 5,603 3,041 644,578 2018 398,795 86,297 72,005 14,037 6,251 3,233 580,620 2017 318,116 91,992 61,995 15,556 7,670 3,572 498,902 2016 245,261 100,487 49,798 14,5