1、LUXURY GOODS WORLDWIDE MARKET STUDY, NOVEMBER 2018 THE FUTURE OF LUXURY: A LOOK INTO TOMORROW TO UNDERSTAND TODAY CLAUDIA DARPIZIO | FEDERICA LEVATO 2 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI METHODOLOGICAL FOREWORD SCOPE REVISION, TO FOCUS PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET ON CORE CATEGORIES Market definition
2、 as per Bain luxury study 2017 (May-18) Restated new personal luxury goods market1 Excluding art-de-la-table (now included into High- Quality Design and Homeware) and other residual categories GLOBAL PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET RESTATEMENT Personal luxury goods market | B Note: (1) Personal luxury
3、goods market includes Apparel, Accessories, Hard luxury and Beauty 3 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI GLOBAL LUXURY MARKETS: 1.2T, WITH 5% REAL-TERM GROWTH IN 2018 GROWTH 17-18E Global luxury goods markets | B 2018 +1% +5% K K6%5%5%4%6%6%4%-3%7% K: Growth at constant exchange rates 4 Burberry disc
4、ussion June 2018v3CHI PERSONAL LUXURY GOODS MARKET OVERPERFORMING OTHER LUXURY SEGMENTS IN 2018 Global luxury market by category | % Note: At-home luxury includes Fine Art, High-quality design furniture Out-of-home luxury includes Luxury hospitality, Cruises and Fine dining; Luxury Toys includes Lux
5、ury cars, Private Jets and Yachts Personal luxury goods gaining traction in the last year Intimate and less “showy” experiences are expected to be more valued by consumers, in particular younger ones Luxury Toys and Out-of-home experiences keeping a positive trend, but slowing down vs. the past, app
6、roaching a maturation phase K: Growth at constant exchange rates 5 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI Continuing positive momentum for Spirits, boosted by increasing demand for exclusive clubs and craft spirits Low single-digit growth for Wines Strong Food market; “ethical eating” paramount trend, w
7、ith constant quest for transparency on food quality and origin Recovery of public auctions boosting fine arts market, online penetrating higher price ranges Solid growth in real terms for high quality design furniture, sustained by living direct channel thriving; ongoing consolidation trend Positive
8、 growth in real terms for luxury hotels; travel becoming a “state of mind” with hotel evolving into social venues in-sync with the city Booming demand for luxury cruises best performing luxury market segment in 2018 in real terms, with expedition segment confirmed as star performer Positive (but sof
9、tening) luxury cars market; Aspirational segment outperforming Lackluster trend for luxury yachts, despite surging interest among Chinese consumers Private jets market on the decline, hit by cannibalization from second-hand segment LUXURY TOYSFINE ART MATURE MARKETS DECREASE THEIR RELEVANCE Personal
10、 luxury goods market by geography | B Personal luxury goods market by consumer nationality | B TREND 17-25E KTREND 17-25E K Trend at constant exchange rate (increasing, decreasing, flat) Note: RoW = Rest of the WorldK: At constant exchange rates 11 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI CHINA IS EXPECTE
11、D TO REMAIN THE MAIN GROWTH ENGINE OF THE LUXURY MARKET IN THE COMING YEARS Chinese consumers continuing to grow their purchases: both enthusiastic international shoppers and local consumers Chinese local consumption booming and expected to grow rapidly going forward, due to healthier fundamentals -
12、 Lower price differentials - Improved customer experience and reach (safer to buy also online vs. the past) - Possibly reduced import taxes - Chinese government policies on boosting internal consumption (e.g. Daigou channel crack down) Personal luxury goods market by nationality and consumption loca
13、tion | B 12 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI 0% k-6% +9%+7% +20%+18% +6%+3% +5%-1% +3%+1% Personal luxury goods market by geography | B Personal luxury goods market by consumer nationality | B POSITIVE GROWTH ACROSS THE BOARD IN 2018. CHINA AND CHINESE CONSUMERS LEADING THE GROWTH TREND 17-18E KTR
14、END 17-18E Trend at constant exchange rate (increasing, decreasing, flat) Note: RoW = Rest of the WorldK: At constant exchange rates 13 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS, CHINESE SPENDING IN CHINA HAS CONTRIBUTED TWICE AS MUCH GROWTH AS CHINESE SPENDING ABROAD Chinese spending
15、 growth contribution: Locally vs. abroad | B 2x PRICE VOLUMES Price harmonization Global price evolution Product mix effect Currency effect New-to-market customers (Mid-class and Gen Z) Government import tax reduction Local Spending major drivers: Price-Volumes effects LOCAL SPENDING 14 Burberry dis
16、cussion June 2018v3CHI 23B39B22B 80B 12B 18E VS17 +20%K: +9% +6% +3% +5% 0% Japan Soft local purchases, increasingly pushing brands to find new solutions to bring them back to stores Brands starting to rethink distribution model in light of increased touristic consumption China Lions share of the gr
17、owth Consumers valuing trendy products and tailored initiatives Online booming, supported by increased investments Asia Good performance of HK and Macau, benefitting from Chinese purchases Dynamic S. Korea, with strong local consumption Brisk growth in other Asian countries (Singapore, Thailand yet
18、brands are mindful of a possible short- term soft recession Strong dollar impacting Asian and Latam tourists Canada and Mexico strong; Brazil impacted by political uncertainties RoW Negative Middle East due to low local consumer confidence, hit by government spending restriction 84B EUROPE LAGGING B
19、EHIND DUE TO STRONG CURRENCY; SOLID AMERICA (IN REAL TERMS); ASIA AND CHINA OUTPERFORMING Note: RoW = Rest of the WorldK: Growth at constant exchange rates 15 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI TOURISTS ASIAEUROPEAMERICASM. CHINAJAPAN LOCALS MAIN DRIVERS 2017-2018E Personal luxury goods market by co
20、nsumers: local vs. tourists ROW Strong Euro affecting tourists purchasing power US strong economy driving up disposable income and spending from locals US West Coast still “hot destination” for tourists, yet offset by drop of tourists elsewhere Lower price differentials and stricter controls on bord
21、ers fueling local consumption Continued interest from Chinese tourists Tourists leveraging cheap flights to reach main shopping cities (e.g. Kyoto and Osaka) Local consumption on the rise sustained by strong economic growth of emerging markets (Vietnam, Philippines) Chinese tourists continuously pro
22、viding an extra- boost Oil price drop in Middle East affecting locals disposable income Turbulent political situation impacting tourist flow (both extra and intra regional) +0% TOURIST SPEND +4% LOCAL SPEND 17-18E GROWTH TREND 17-18E AMERICAS AND ASIA ENJOYING ROBUST LOCAL DEMAND, WHILE EUROPE AND J
23、APAN CONTINUING ON A SOFT TREND Growth trend (increasing, decreasing, flat) 16 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI 2017-2018E European personal luxury goods tax free shopping growth in local currencies FRANCEITALYUKGERMANY NOTE: figures refer to Jan-Sep period AVERAGE TICKET TRANSACTIONS (in GBP) SPA
24、IN STRONG EURO IMPACTING TOURIST SHOPPING, EXCEPT FOR FRANCE; AVERAGE TICKET INCREASE PARTIALLY OFFSETTING VOLUME REDUCTION ONLINE CHANNEL WILL REPRESENT 25% OF THE MARKET VALUE. 100% OF LUXURY PURCHASES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN ONLINE INTERACTION E-COMMERCE, ONLINE, DIGITAL PERMEATING EVERY SINGLE
25、PURCHASE 18 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI ONLINE FASTEST GROWING CHANNEL, CONTINUING ITS FULL INTEGRATION WITH PHYSICAL: FROM 10% IN 2018 TO 25% BY 2025 Personal luxury goods market by channel | B ONLINE +22% +0% +1% -4% +7% +7% GROWTH 17-18E TREND 18E-25F K Online accelerating and gaining shar
26、e toward physical channel: ecosystem of business models, going beyond regional boundaries New technologies will further enrich shopping experience and connectivity: mobile and beyond Physical channels will re- shape their purpose and mission, focusing on the core elements of value: Airport retailing
27、 and Off-price to reach full-potential; more traditional channels downsizing and evolving their roles Trend at constant exchange rate (increasing, decreasing, flat) 19 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI Purchase Awareness Consideration Loyalty 2025 70% 100% 2018 2025 15-20% 2018 Online-INFLUENCED pu
28、rchases in the luxury market Digitally ENABLED purchases in the luxury market 50% Continuous integration and convergence between e-commerce websites and digital content/marketing platforms: Social media enhanced with E-commerce capabilities E-commerce website enriched with editorial content Implemen
29、tation of technologies throughout the entire value chain to support the digital enabling: Virtual Reality Internet-of-Things Mobile payments “Smart” Inventory and Supply Chain management IN 2025 ONLINE WILL INFLUENCE EVERY SINGLE LUXURY PURCHASE AND DIGITAL WILL ENABLE 50% OF THEM 20 Burberry discus
30、sion June 2018v3CHI ONLINE 13-17 CAGR Personal luxury goods online market by key segment | B ONLINE 17-18E YOY Asia still the main growth engine, yet with room to further grow in some countries Europe with positive trend; US growing slower than other regions ASIA CHAMPION REGION, BOOMING HARD LUXURY
31、 AND KEY PARTNERSHIPS AMONG PLAYERS ENABLING THE ONLINE CHANNEL TREND 17-18E Brands implementing dedicated strategies to take the channel at full potential through their own websites E-tailers continuously innovating their value proposition also leveraging exclusive partnerships with brands Booming
32、hard luxury, enjoying the initial focus of specialized players on the channel Accessories and beauty confirming to be “ideal” categories for an online purchase (e.g. no fit issues) Apparel lagging behind, penalized by the category slowdown in the market 24%22% China incl. official channels only DIGI
33、TAL PENETRATION WILL LEAD TO PHYSICAL DISRUPTION: NETWORK CONSOLIDATION. STORES WILL INEVITABLY CHANGE: FROM POINT OF SALES TO POINT OF TOUCH FOOTPRINT CONSOLIDATION RESHAPING THE STORE OF THE FUTURE 22 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI MONOBRAND NET STORE OPENINGS IN CONTRACTION DUE TO IN-STORE TR
34、AFFIC DECLINE RESHAPING THE ROLE OF PHYSICAL STORES impacting future luxury retail net store openings Fashion WHOLESALE SLOWED DOWN DUE TO WEAK DEPT. STORES GEN Y WITH A LEADING ROLE; GEN Z READY TO TAKE OFF Younger generations are the key driver of “changes” in the industry, forcing brands to evolv
35、e and innovate across different dimensions (e.g. product offering, communications territories and media,) 100% 85% 2018 2017 Contribution to total market growth of Gen Z and Gen Y (%) CULTURES/SUB-CULTURES AND NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS WILL ARISE CATEGORIES WILL BLEND: BRANDS MUST BE DYNAMIC AND RESP
36、ONSIVE TO ADAPT CULTURES AND (SUB)CULTURES TAKING OVER CONSUMPTION TRENDS 31 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI CULTURES AND SUB-CULTURES ARE TAKING OVER THE CONSUMPTION FASHION 2025 CULTURES WILL EAT (PRODUCT) STRATEGY FOR BREAKFAST (SUB)CULTURES AND IDEAS WILL BECOME MAINSTREAM C-Millennials M-Mil
37、lennials Gender Minorities CULTURALLY INCLUSIVE MODELS NEW SHAPES EMBRACING BODY DIVERSITY (NEW) CHANNELS FOSTERING 2ndLIFE OF LUXURY 32 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI CURRENTLY GENERATING MATERIAL RESULTS (SUB)CULTURES AND IDEAS WILL BECOME MAINSTREAM THE RISE OF FASHION M-MILLENNIALS THE LIBER
38、ATION OF WOMEN AND DEMOCRATISATION OF SHAPES 20% CULTURES WILL EAT (PRODUCT) STRATEGY FOR BREAKFAST SHARE OF INCLUSIVE LUXURY APPAREL ON TOTAL WOMAN LUXURY READY-TO-WEAR 40% SHARE OF MODEST ACCEPTED FASHION IN TOTAL WOMAN LUXURY READY-TO-WEAR 33 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI Personal luxury goo
39、ds second-hand market | B LUXURY 2ND-HAND MARKET SURGING SPECIALLY IN EUROPE, ONLINE AND HARD LUXURY; STRONG TRACTION AMONG YOUNGER GENERATIONS 9% CAGR 15-18E Hard luxury (watches mainly) APPAREL SUFFERING 19B18B51B56B37B 60B GROWTH MODEL WILL OVERCOME CURRENT BOUNDARIES, SHAPING NEW COMPETITIVE MAP
40、S. BRANDS WILL BECOME EXCELLENCE/IDEA PLATFORMS, ENLARGING THEIR RELEVANCE ONE MARKET SERVING MARKETS OF ONE 36 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI BRANDS WILL CROSS-OVER TYPICAL COMPETITIVE BOUNDARIES, CONVERGING INTO ONE MARKET Premium Mass Luxury200B 158B 319B 186B 2017 Global personal goods marke
41、t: soft (apparel, shoes, leather goods, accessories) and hard (watches and jewelry) Cross-segment competition in 2017 personal goods market FASHION SPORT LIFESTYLE SPORT SPECIALISTS Fashion PROFITABILITY LIKELY TO STABILIZE IN THE COMING YEARS Evolution of EBIT of selected personal luxury goods bran
42、ds | % of revenues WHAT COULD IMPACT PROFITABILITY GOING FORWARD? Network consolidation reducing “brick-and-mortar” investments, changing Capex into “rolling” maintenance needs Increasing headquarter Capex (e.g. systems, infrastructure, logistics) to align toward omnichannel environment Reboot AUGME
43、NTED REALITY TO PROVIDE THEM WITH A TAILORED EXPERIENCE CRM AND CXM TO BE TAKEN TO THE NEXT LEVEL: BIG DATA, AFFECTIVE TECH AND EMOTIONAL ADVERTISING TO CUSTOMIZE CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE BY TASTE, TOUCHPOINT PREFERENCES AND EMOTIONAL SPECIFICITIES MORE CHINESE-DRIVEN PURCHASES HAPPENING IN CHINA E-COMME
44、RCE, ONLINE, DIGITAL PERMEATING EVERY SINGLE PURCHASE CULTURES AND (SUB)CULTURES TAKING OVER CONSUMPTION TRENDS ONE MARKET SERVING MARKETS OF ONE DIFFERENTLY PROFITABLE BRANDS NIMBLE IS THE NEW BLACK LUXURY IN 2025: NEW TECHNOLOGIES PLAYING A CRUCIAL ROLE AS A FUNDAMENTAL ENABLER OF LUXURY BRAND STR
45、ATEGIES FOOTPRINT CONSOLIDATION RESHAPING THE STORE OF THE FUTURE A YOUTHFUL MARKET DISRUPTING GROWTH PATHS 46 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI AS WE LOOK AHEAD: 3 STRATEGY MANTRAS AND 1 FUNDAMENTAL ENABLER TO BEAR IN MIND Stand-out by designing a “unique” winning formula shaped around consumer ne
46、eds Focus effort and strategy on winning younger generations as key engine of future market growth Win by developing dedicated and proactive strategies for customers BE PROACTIVE DISTINCTIVE NEXT GEN MINDED AND NEW TECH ENABLED Leverage new advanced technologies as fundamental enabler of the strateg
47、y +2% YoY +6% k +3 / 5 % 18E25F CAGR Personal luxury goods market forecast | B K: Growth at constant exchange rates PEOPLE PASSION RESULTS! 48 Burberry discussion June 2018v3CHI Claudia DArpizio, Partner Bain & Company Luxury goods vertical Claudia has spent 24 years advising multinational luxury an
48、d fashion clients on everything from strategy and new product development to innovation and organizational change. She is the lead author of the Bain Luxury Study, one of the most cited sources of market information in the luxury industry. In 2009, Claudia was also recognized as one of the Top 25 Co
49、nsultants in the World by Consulting Magazine. Federica Levato, Partner Bain & Company Luxury goods vertical Over the last 14 years, Federica has led more than 200 assignments in the fashion and luxury industry on issues relating to corporate and brand strategy, portfolio management, merchandising, retail and wholesale excellence, digital acceleration, millennial strategies, marketing and communication, and more. Alongside Claudia DArpizio, Federica is the co-author of the Bain Luxury St
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