1、 InsightSpring 2021Sales volumes poised to increase Annual price growth returns to Londons super-prime marketDemand far exceeds supply1 The race for space continuesSales of 10m-plus houses and flats, % splitThere are signs the super-prime (10 million-plus) sales market in London is recovering after
2、12 months during which activity was curbed by the global pandemic.Activity levels did not spring back in the same way as domestic-focussed prime markets after the first national lockdown, primarily due to restrictions around international travel.Although those restrictions remain in place, transacti
3、on levels and spending are rising as the UKs successful Covid-19 vaccination programme gathers pace and expectations grow that travel rules will be relaxed in coming months.Transaction volumesIn the six months to the end of April, 45 super-prime deals totalling of 817.4 million took place, whole-mar
4、ket data shows, figures that will be revised upwards as more transactions are recorded on the Land Registry. In the preceding six-month period, there were a total of 43 transactions totalling 677.9 million.“The market is poised for a strong year” said Paddy Dring, global head of prime sales at Knigh
5、t Frank. London has maintained its global appeal and coupled with a steady domestic demand, it means the second half of the year will be stronger than the first.The quest for more space is still influencing demand, among both domestic and overseas buyers. The highest percentage of super-prime exchan
6、ges in the 12 months to April took place in Kensington (18.6%), as figure 3 shows. The joint top locations in the previous 12 months were Knightsbridge and Mayfair (17.4%). Notting Hill has also grown in popularity, recording 10.5% of all super-prime deals over the last year, up from 5.4% in the pre
7、vious 12-month period.“There is still a shortage of stock, particularly in the house market” said Tom van Straubenzee, head of the Private Office at Knight Frank. “For example, the demand is so strong in Notting Hill at the moment that some houses are fetching over 4,000 per square foot.”Changing sh
8、ape of demandThe percentage of super-prime sales that were houses was also at its highest level in five years, as figure 1 shows. Almost three-quarters of transactions were houses compared to a split that was closer to 50/50 between apartments and houses in 2017.Despite the international travel rest
9、rictions, demand has continued to build from around the world for super-prime London property, as figure 7 shows.The number of new prospective super-prime buyers was 150% higher in May 2021 than it was in January 2020. Meanwhile, over the same period, the number of new property listings in the price
10、 bracket fell by 25% as owners hesitated against the backdrop of the pandemic.“The market will open up rapidly when international travel does,” said Rupert des Forges, head of prime central London developments at Knight Frank. “We will have 18 months of pent-up demand among needs-driven buyers as Lo
11、ndon real estate takes up its historic role as a defensive asset class when the world is unsettled. I expect prices will rise and the next five years bring the sort of SUPER-PRIME MARKET INSIGHTTransaction volumes in the super-prime market look set to increase as annual price growth returns “The sup
12、er-prime market has performed well in exceptional circumstances over the last 12 months, which highlights the resilience of Londons super-prime property market. I expect overseas demand to spring back quite quickly once travel restrictions are relaxed.RORY PENN, HEAD OF PRIVATE OFFICE2 Super-prime d
13、eal numbers and total spend on the rise Super-prime sales volumes and values, whole market, annual rolling totaln Sales value n Sales volumeSource: Knight Frank ResearchSource: Knight Frank ResearchFlat | 36% Flat | 26% Flat | 43% Flat | 43% Flat | 44% House | 64%House | 74%House | 57%House | 57%Hou
14、se | 56%20202020406080100120140 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-211bn1.5bn2bn2.5bn2021 Jan to April4 Super-prime sales in key areas of London 12 months to April 2021 Number of sales by value n 10m-20m n 20m-30m n 30m+ Total number of salesSource: Knight Frank ResearchR E G E N T S PA R KH Y D E
15、PA R KSW1 | 392mW1 MAYFAIR | 180mW1 MARYLEBONE | 80MNW3 | 54mSE1 | 12mN6 | TOTAL VALUE OF SALES 30mNW1 | 35mNW8 | 70m14106418SW3 | 90m71832SW7 | 56mW14 | 29mW8 | 241m421361W11 | 99m731W2 | 83m613 Where are super-prime deals taking place? Existing homes and new-build, % of whole market n Y
16、ear to April 2020 n Year to April 2021Source: Knight Frank ResearchBelgraviaChelseaHampsteadKensingtonKnightsbridgeMaryleboneMayfairNotting HillSt Johns Wood0%5%10%15%20% steady price growth we had become accustomed to in Londons super-prime market.Annual price growth has now returned, as figure 5 s
17、hows. Average super-prime prices increased 0.6% in the year to May, which was the first rise in more than three years.Overseas investors will also be aware that the currency discount is starting to narrow as the pound strengthens on the back of the UKs vaccine-fuelled economic recovery. The effectiv
18、e discount for a range of overseas currencies has diminished since the end of 2020, as figure 6 shows. Overseas demand is healthy despite travel restrictions because of the UKs successful vaccine programme. Buyers are anticipating a quick recovery in the economy and super-prime property prices.KATYA
19、 ZENKOVICH, KNIGHT FRANK PRIVATE OFFICEW9 | 12mThe number of sales in the year to April was 87 compared to 107 in the previous 12-month period. Given successive UK national lockdowns, this highlights the resilience of London as a global wealth hub.Please get in touch with usIf you are looking to buy
20、, sell or wouldjust like some property advice, we wouldlove to hear from you.Tom Bill Head of UK Residential Research +44 20 7861 1492 Paddy Dring Global Head of Prime Sales +44 20 7861 1061 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clie
21、nts worldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the public sector. All our clients recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs. Important Notice: Knight Frank LLP 2021 This report is published for general inform
22、ation only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant from
23、 any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior writte
24、n approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members names.Knight F
25、rank Research Reports are available super-prime properties5 Annual price growth returns to the super-prime London market n Average annual PCL price change n 10m-plus annual price change, PCL Source: Knight Frank ResearchSource: Knight Frank Research6 Currency discount narrows % change since June 20
26、16 (before EU referendum), currency and prices combinedn Effective discount in May 2021 l Effective discount in December 2020 7 The supply/demand imbalanceNew prospective buyers and instructions to sell, rebased to 100 at January 2019 n Instructions to sell n New prospective buyers -8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1% May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 May-21 -30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%USD GBP CHF SGD MYR INR HKD EUR CNY AUD500Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr2019 2020 2021Source: Knight Frank ResearchSource: Knight Frank ResearchSt Johns WoodChelseaMayfair
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