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1、Global EV Outlook 2024Moving towards increased affordabilityThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the

2、IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation

3、 of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgM

4、exicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa

5、 Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Abstract PAGE|3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and assesses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe.It is developed with the support of members of the Electric V

6、ehicles Initiative(EVI).Combining analysis of historical data with projections now extended to 2035 the report examines key areas of interest such as the deployment of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure,battery demand,investment trends,and related policy developments in major and emerging

7、 markets.It also considers what wider EV adoption means for electricity and oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.The report includes analysis of lessons learned from leading markets,providing information for policy makers and stakeholders on policy frameworks and market systems that support

8、electric vehicle uptake.This edition also features analysis of electric vehicle affordability,second-hand markets,lifecycle emissions of electric cars and their batteries,and grid impacts from charging medium-and heavy-duty electric trucks.Two online tools are made available alongside the report:the

9、 Global EV Data Explorer and the Global EV Policy Explorer,which allow users to interactively explore EV statistics and projections,and policy measures worldwide.Global EV Outlook 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|4 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits The Global EV Outlook 2024 was prep

10、ared by the Energy Technology Policy(ETP)Division of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks(STO)of the International Energy Agency(IEA).The project was designed and directed by Timur Gl,Chief Energy Technology Officer.Araceli Fernandez Pales,Head of the Technology Innovation Unit,

11、provided strategic guidance throughout the development of the project.Elizabeth Connelly co-ordinated the analysis and production of the report.The principal IEA authors were(in alphabetical order):Oskaras Alauskas,Elizabeth Connelly,Mathilde Huismans,Ethan Jenness,Javier Jorquera Copier,Jean-Baptis

12、te Le Marois,Teo Lombardo,Shane McDonagh,Vera ORiordan,Apostolos Petropoulos and Jules Sery.Yoshihisa Tsukamoto and Biqing Yang contributed to the research on EV supportive policies and OEM electrification plans.Vedant Sinha contributed to analysis on EV price parity and data management.Anthony Vaut

13、rin contributed to the analysis on total and net load impacts of electric truck charging,Hikaru Ito and Hasti Wiandita contributed to research on Indonesia.Valuable insights and feedback were provided by senior management and other colleagues from across IEA,including Laura Cozzi,Keisuke Sadamori,Br

14、ian Motherway,Alessandro Blasi,Toril Bosoni,Dennis Hesseling,Stphanie Bouckaert,Alexander Bressers,Federico Callioni,Shobhan Dhir,Ciaran Healy,Thomas Spencer and Jacques Warichet.Per-Anders Widell provided essential support throughout the process.Lizzie Sayer edited the manuscript.Special thanks go

15、to Prof.Andreas Ulbig and his team at RWTH Aachen University(Andreas Bong and Chris Vertgewall)for their analytical input on electric heavy-duty vehicle integration in electricity grids.Thanks go to the IEAs Communications and Digital Office,particularly to Jethro Mullen,Poeli Bojorquez,Curtis Brain

16、ard,Jon Custer,Hortense de Roffignac,Astrid Dumond,Merve Erdil,Grace Gordon,Julia Horowitz,Oliver Joy,Isabelle Nonain-Semelin,Clara Vallois,Lucile Wall and Wonjik Yang.The work could not have been achieved without the financial support provided by the EVI member governments and the funds received th

17、rough the Global E-Mobility Programme funded by the Global Environment Facility(GEF).Global EV Outlook 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The report benefited from the high-calibre data and support provided by the following colleagues:Nissa Alexander(Department of Economic Development,Transp

18、ort and Civil Aviation,Saint Lucia);Mozah Mohamed Alnuaimi(Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure,United Arab Emirates);Carlos Andrs lvarez lvarez(Ministry of Mines and Energy,Colombia);Soukaina Boudoudouh(IRESEN,Morocco);Klaas Burgdorf(Swedish Energy Agency);Bryan Cancn(MINAM,Peru);Pamela Castillo(M

19、inistry of Energy,Chile);Adonay Urrutia Cortez(General Directorate for Energy,El Salvador);Laurent Demilie(Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport,Belgium);Albert Dessi(Department of Climate Change,Energy,the Environment and Water,Australia);Joanna Dobek(Ministry of Climate and Environment,Pol

20、and);Alexandra Doyle-Franklin(Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority,New Zealand);Isabel Del Olmo Flrez(Institute for Diversification and Saving of Energy,Spain);Camille Gautier(Ministry of Ecological Transition,France);Fatima Habib(Office for Zero Emission Vehicles,United Kingdom);Jn sgeir Ha

21、ukdal orvaldsson(National Energy Authority of Iceland);Tim Jonas(NREL,United States);Federico Karagulian(ENEA,Italy);Sky Liu(China Society of Automotive Engineers);Leticia Gonalves Lorentz(EPE,Brazil);Toke Rueskov Madsen(Centre for Systems Analysis,Denmark);Gereon Meyer(VDI/VDE Innovation+Technik Gm

22、bH,Germany);Elvis Octave(Seychelles Public Transport Corporation);Hiten Parmar(The Electric Mission,South Africa);Xiaorong Qiao(Transport Canada);Daniel Schaller(Swiss Federal Office of Energy);Chizu Sekiguchi(METI,Japan);Daniel Thorsell(Norwegian Public Roads Administration);Sai Santhosh Tota(VTT,F

23、inland);Katerina Tourtora(Ministry for Environment and Energy,Greece);Alexandre Videira(Mobi.E,Portugal);Sacha Scheffer(RVO,the Netherlands);and Nahum Yehoshua(Ministry of Energy,Israel).The following peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report:Nelson Humberto Ace

24、vedo Hurtado(Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development,Colombia);Appurva Appan and Juan Camilo Ramirez Arjona(Ricardo AEA);Doris Agbevivi(Energy Commission,Ghana);Mozah Mohamed Alnuaim(Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure,United Arab Emirates);Dina Bacovski(AMF TCP);Edgar Barassa(Barassa&

25、Cruz Consulting);Daniel Barber(Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority,New Zealand);Harmeet Bawa(Hitachi Energy);Berkan Bayram(TEHAD,Trkyie);Thomas Becker(BMW);Filippo Berardi(GEF);Annika Berlin(UNEP);Ekta Meena Bibra(Clean Energy Canada);Georg Bieker(ICCT);Tomoko Blech(CHAdeMO);Giorgios Bonias

26、(Shell);Victor Bonilla and Tali Trigg(EBRD);Angelique Brunon(TotalEnergies);Carol Burelle,Ocktaeck Lim and Xiao Lin(HEV TCP);Klaas Burgdorf(Swedish Energy Agency);Ryan Castilloux(Adams Intelligence);Pierpaolo Cazzola(UC Davis);Jianhua Chen(Energy Foundation China);Yong Chen and Nicholas Wagner(IRENA

27、);Tom Courtright(Africa E-Mobility Alliance);Matteo Craglia(ITF);Franois Cuenot(UNECE);Ilka von Dalwigk(Innoenergy-European Global EV Outlook 2024 Acknowledgements PAGE|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Battery Alliance);Laurent Demilie(Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport,Belgium);Albert Dessi (Department o

28、f Climate Change,Energy,the Environment and Water,Australia);Michael Dwyer(EIA,United States);Helosa Borges Bastos Esteves(EPE,Brazil);Hiroyuki Fukui(Toyota);Yariv Gabay(Ministry of Finance,Israel);Sebastian Galarza(Center for Sustainable Mobility);Camille Gautier(Ministry of Ecological Transition,F

29、rance);Catherine Girard(Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance);Fatima Habib(Office for Zero Emission Vehicles,United Kingdom);Stephan Healey,Joe Homsy,Xiaorong Qiao and Paula Vieira(Transport Canada);Anders Hove(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies);Antonio Iliceto(Terna);Viktor Irle and Neil King(EV Vo

30、lumes);Daisy Jennings-Gray(Benchmark Mineral Intelligence);Tim Jonas(NREL,United States);Hiroyuki Kaneko(Nissan Motor);Tarek Keskes and Yanchao Li(World Bank);Stephanie Kodish and Joseph Teja(CALSTART-Drive to Zero);Francisco Laveron(Iberdrola);Toke Rueskov Madsen(Danish Energy Agency);Maurizio Magg

31、iore(Independent);Urs Ruth(Bosch);Hans Eric Melin(Circular Energy Storage);Gian Paolo Montoya(EPM,Colombia);Samir Mulgaonkar(Department of Transport,California);Andi Novianto(Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs,Indonesia);Marcin Nowak(Polish Chamber of E-Mobility);Elvis Octave(Government of S

32、eychelles)Mario Duran Ortiz(Independent);Jared Ottmann(Tesla);Sarbojit Pal(CEM Secretariat);Sara Pasquier(Fastned);Davide Puglielli and Emanuela Sartori(Enel);Aleksander Rajch(Polish Association of Alternative Fuels);Taylor Reich(ITDP);Huanhuan Ren(CATARC,Automotive Data of China);Sandra Roling(The

33、Climate Group);Sacha Scheffer(Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management,the Netherlands);Wulf-Peter Schmidt(Ford);Robert Spicer(BP);Jacopo Tattini(European Commission);Danilo Teobaldi(NIO);Jacob Teter(Independent);Lyle Trytten(Independent);Bianka Uhrinova(Equinor);Andreas Ulbig(RWTH Aachen);Ul

34、derico Ulissi and Liu Ziyu(CATL);and Adonay Urrutia(General Directorate for Energy,El Salvador).Global EV Outlook 2024 Table of contents PAGE|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.11 Electric Vehicles Initiative.16 1.Trends in electric cars.17 Electric car sales.17 Electric car availab

35、ility and affordability.30 2.Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles.54 Electric two-and three-wheelers.54 Electric light commercial vehicles.58 3.Trends in heavy electric vehicles.60 Electric truck and bus sales.60 Electric heavy-duty vehicle model availability.63 4.Trends in electric vehicle

36、charging.67 Charging for electric light-duty vehicles.67 Charging for electric heavy-duty vehicles.75 5.Trends in electric vehicle batteries.78 Battery supply and demand.78 Battery prices.83 6.Trends in the electric vehicle industry.88 Electric vehicle company strategy and market competition.88 Elec

37、tric vehicle and battery start-ups.95 7.Outlook for electric mobility.102 Scenario overview.102 Vehicle outlook by mode.104 Vehicle outlook by region.110 The industry outlook.117 8.Outlook for electric vehicle charging infrastructure.125 Light-duty vehicle charging.125 Heavy-duty vehicle charging.13

38、1 9.Outlook for battery and energy demand.142 Battery demand.142 Electricity demand.148 Oil displacement.150 10.Outlook for emissions reductions.154 Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions.154 Lifecycle impacts of electric cars.156 General annex.162 Global EV Outlook 2024 Table of contents PAGE|8 IEA

39、.CC BY 4.0.Annex A:Total cost of ownership.162 Annex B:Lifecycle analysis assessment.165 Annex C:Regional and country groupings.166 Abbreviations and acronyms.169 Units of measure.171 Currency conversions.172 List of figures Global electric car stock trends,2010-2023.17 Electric car registrations an

40、d sales share in selected countries and regions,2015-2023.20 Electric car sales in selected countries and regions,2015-2023.23 Quarterly electric car sales,2021-2024.27 Electric car sales,2010-2024.28 Car model availability by powertrain over 2010-2023 and in 2028 based on announced launches,and sha

41、re of SUVs and large models among electric cars.30 Breakdown of battery electric car sales in selected countries and regions by car size,2018-2023.32 Breakdown of available car models and expected new launches by powertrain and segment in selected countries and regions,2023-2028.33 Sales-weighted av

42、erage range of battery electric cars by segment,2015-2023.34 Difference in total cost of ownership for a battery electric vehicle and a conventional car purchased in 2018 and 2022,by country and segment,over time after purchase.37 Breakdown of the cost of ownership for a sales-weighted average mediu

43、m-sized battery electric and conventional car purchased in 2022,5 years after purchase,by country.38 Price gap between the sales-weighted average price of conventional and electric cars in selected countries,before subsidy,by size,2018 and 2022.40 Share of battery electric car sales in China that ar

44、e more or less expensive than conventional equivalents,by car size,2018-2022.41 Number of available battery electric car models in the United States,by retail price after tax credit when eligible,2023 and 2024.42 Retail price of cheapest electric and conventional cars as a share of median annual hou

45、sehold income(left)and top 10%annual household income(right),by country and car size,2023.44 Sales-weighted average price of battery electric cars,and average battery price,by country and car size,2018-2022.46 Electric car sales in selected countries,by origin of carmaker,2021-2023.48 Second-hand ma

46、rket size for electric and conventional cars by region,2021-2023.49 Difference between the relative resale value of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles compared to gasoline conventional cars,2023.51 Electric two-and three-wheeler sales and sales share by region,2015-2023.56 Breakdown of tot

47、al cost of ownership of two-and three-wheelers in China and India,2023.57 Electric light commercial vehicle sales and sales shares,2018-2023.59 Electric bus sales and sales share by region,2015-2023.61 Electric truck sales and sales share by region,2015-2023.63 Available battery electric heavy-duty

48、vehicle models by original equipment manufacturer headquarters,type of vehicle and release date,2020-2023.65 Cumulative number of original equipment manufacturers that have released battery electric medium-and heavy-duty commercial vehicles by location of headquarters,2020-2023.66 Installed public a

49、nd private light-duty vehicle charging points by power rating(public)and by type(private),2015-2023.69 Global EV Outlook 2024 Table of contents PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Installed publicly accessible light-duty vehicle charging points by power rating and region,2015-2023.70 Charging capacity per electric

50、 light-duty vehicle,2015-2023.72 Number of electric light-duty vehicles per public charging point and kilowatt per electric light-duty vehicle,2023.73 Proportion of fast and slow public chargers in total public chargers,2023.74 Electric vehicle battery demand by mode and region,2017-2023.79 Supply a

51、nd demand of battery metals by sector,2017-2023.80 Global trade flows for lithium-ion batteries and electric cars,2023.81 Installed regional lithium-ion battery cells manufacturing capacity by location of manufacturer headquarters,2023.82 Price of selected battery metals(left)and lithium-ion battery

52、 packs(right),2015-2024.83 Average battery price index by selected battery chemistry and region,2020-2023.85 Share of battery capacity of electric vehicle sales by chemistry and region,2021-2023.86 Material content in anodes and cathodes,by chemistry,2023.87 Key financial indicators for major car,ba

53、ttery,mining and cleantech companies.89 Key financial indicators of top mining companies,2015-2023.91 Share of global electric car markets by selected carmakers(left)and gross margin of selected companies(right),2015-2023.92 Breakdown of electric car sales in Europe and the United States,by company

54、or country of headquarters,2015-2023.93 Early-stage(left)and growth-stage(right)venture capital investments in start-ups developing battery(top)and electric mobility(bottom)technology,2010-2023.97 Cumulative venture capital investment,by technology,country or region,2018-2023.99 Venture Capital inve

55、stments in start-ups developing battery technologies by chemistry(left),and for the extraction and refining of critical minerals(right),2018-2023.101 Electric vehicle stock by mode and scenario,2023-2035.104 Electric vehicle sales by region and scenario,2030 and 2035.105 Electric vehicle sales share

56、 by mode and scenario,2030 and 2035.106 Passenger light-duty vehicle stock by powertrain and scenario,2023-2035.107 Electric vehicle sales share by mode and region,2035.110 Equivalent electric car sales shares targets by battery and car manufacturers,and electric car sales shares in the Stated Polic

57、ies and Announced Pledges Scenarios,2030.122 Zero-emission heavy-duty vehicle sales shares implied by original equipment manufacturer targets and projected in the Stated Policies and Announced Pledges Scenarios,2030.124 Global light-duty vehicle charger stock and capacity,2023-2035.126 Number of pub

58、lic light-duty vehicle chargers installed by region,2023-2035.127 Electricity delivered to electric light-duty vehicles by charger type,2023-2035.130 Heavy-duty vehicle charger stock and capacity in the Stated Policies and Announced Pledges Scenarios,2023-2035.132 Comparison of selected approaches t

59、o heavy-duty truck fleet charging and their effects on the electricity load of a 1 000-vehicle fleet.134 Impact of different electric truck charging cases on total daily electricity load and net load in China,the European Union and the United States in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2035.136 Average

60、 early-evening electricity system flexibility needs relative to a case of exclusively overnight charging at depot(Case 1)in selected regions in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2035.137 Average electric truck charging contribution to early-evening electricity peak load by region and charging case in s

61、elected regions in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2035.138 Percentage point difference in average power line utilisation by heavy-duty vehicle charging case at 50%and 90%electric truck share,compared with no electric truck charging.139 Battery demand for electric vehicles by mode and region,2023-203

62、5.143 Announced expansion of battery manufacturing maximum output by region and deployment in the Announced Pledges and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenarios,2023 and 2030.145 Global EV Outlook 2024 Table of contents PAGE|10 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Expected battery recycling capacity by region based on current

63、 announcements,2023-2030.146 Current and announced global battery recycling capacity and potential supply of end-of-life batteries according to existing and announced policies,2023-2030.147 Electricity demand by mode and by region,2023-2035.149 Oil displacement by region and mode in the Stated Polic

64、ies,Announced Pledges and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenarios,2023-2035.151 Net tax implications of electric vehicle adoption by region in the Stated Policies and Announced Pledges Scenarios,2023-2035.152 Net avoided well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions from EV deployment,and share of avoided emi

65、ssions by mode,2023-2035.155 Comparison of global average medium-car lifecycle emissions by powertrain in the Stated Policies and Announced Pledges Scenarios,2023-2035.157 Lifecycle emissions of a medium-sized car by powertrain relative to a gasoline internal combustion engine car by region in the S

66、tated Policies Scenario,2023.159 Battery pack lifecycle emissions by chemistry in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2023-2035 161 List of boxes For the first time,China was the front-runner in full cell electric vehicle deployment in 2023.21 Policy support in Indonesia is attracting international major

67、s and boosting electric car sales.25 Recommendations for EV charging concessions to implement the EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation.128 List of tables Newly announced and updated electrification targets for light-duty vehicles.118 Share of electricity consumption from electric vehicles

68、relative to final electricity consumption by region and scenario,2023 and 2035.150 Cost of ownership assumptions for cars.162 Cost of ownership assumptions for two-and three-wheelers.164 Global EV Outlook 2024 Executive Summary PAGE|11 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Growth in electric car sales rem

69、ains robust as major markets progress and emerging economies ramp up Electric car sales keep rising and could reach around 17 million in 2024,accounting for more than one in five cars sold worldwide.Electric cars continue to make progress towards becoming a mass-market product in a larger number of

70、countries.Tight margins,volatile battery metal prices,high inflation,and the phase-out of purchase incentives in some countries have sparked concerns about the industrys pace of growth,but global sales data remain strong.In the first quarter of 2024,electric car sales grew by around 25%compared with

71、 the first quarter of 2023,similar to the year-on-year growth seen in the same period in 2022.In 2024,the market share of electric cars could reach up to 45%in China,25%in Europe and over 11%in the United States,underpinned by competition among manufacturers,falling battery and car prices,and ongoin

72、g policy support.Growth expectations for 2024 build on a record year:in 2023,global sales of electric cars neared 14 million,reaching 18%of all cars sold.This is up from 14%in 2022.Electric car sales in 2023 were 3.5 million higher than in 2022,a 35%year-on-year increase.This indicates robust growth

73、 even as many major markets enter a new phase,with uptake shifting from early adopters to the mass market.Over 250 000 electric cars were sold every week last year,more than the number sold in a year just a decade ago.Chinese carmakers produced more than half of all electric cars sold worldwide in 2

74、023,despite accounting for just 10%of global sales of cars with internal combustion engines.The pace at which electric car sales pick up in emerging and developing economies outside China will determine their global success.The vast majority of electric car sales in 2023 were in China(60%),Europe(25

75、%)and the United States(10%).By comparison,these regions accounted for around 65%of total car sales worldwide,showing that sales of electric models remain more geographically concentrated than those of conventional ones.While electric car sales in emerging economies have been lagging those in the th

76、ree big markets,growth picked up in 2023 in countries such as Viet Nam(around 15%of all cars sold)and Thailand(10%).In emerging economies with large car markets,shares are still relatively low,but several factors point to further growth.Policy measures such as purchase subsidies and incentives for e

77、lectric vehicle(EV)and battery manufacturing are playing a key role.In India(where electric cars have a 2%market share),the Production Linked Incentives(PLI)Scheme is supporting domestic manufacturing.In Brazil(3%share),Indonesia,Malaysia(2%share Global EV Outlook 2024 Executive Summary PAGE|12 IEA.

78、CC BY 4.0.each),and Thailand,cheaper models,mainly from Chinese brands,are underpinning uptake.In Mexico,EV supply chains are rapidly developing,stimulated by access to subsidies from the US Inflation Reduction Act(IRA).Policy support is boosting industry investment,building confidence that rapid el

79、ectrification will continue Every other car sold globally in 2035 is set to be electric based on todays energy,climate and industrial policy settings,as reflected in the IEAs Stated Policies Scenario.This has significant impacts on the car fleet.As soon as 2030,almost one in three cars on the roads

80、in China is electric in this scenario,and almost one in five in both the United States and European Union.The rapid uptake of EVs of all types cars,vans,trucks,buses and two/three-wheelers avoids 6 million barrels per day(mb/d)of oil demand in the Stated Policies Scenario in 2030,and over 10 mb/d in

81、 2035.This is equivalent to the amount of oil used for road transport in the United States today.Recent policy developments continue to reinforce expectations for swift electrification,such as new emissions standards adopted in Canada,the European Union and the United States over the past year.Indus

82、trial incentives such as those in the US IRA,the EU Net Zero Industry Act,Chinas 14th Five-Year Plan,and Indias PLI scheme also encourage adding value and creating jobs across EV supply chains in those economies.If all the national energy and climate targets made by governments are met in full and o

83、n time,as in the Announced Pledges Scenario,two-thirds of all vehicles sold in 2035 could be electric,avoiding around 12 mb/d of oil.Expectations of strong growth are bolstering investment in the EV supply chain.Recent reporting shows that from 2022 to 2023,investment announcements in EV and battery

84、 manufacturing totalled almost USD 500 billion,of which around 40%has been committed.Over 20 major car manufacturers,representing more than 90%of global car sales in 2023,have set electrification targets.Taking the targets of all the largest automakers together,more than 40 million electric cars cou

85、ld be sold in 2030,which would meet the level of deployment projected under todays policy settings.Enough battery manufacturing capacity has reached a final investment decision to deliver on announced pledges from automakers and governments globally.Thanks to high levels of investment in the past 5

86、years,global EV battery manufacturing capacity far exceeded demand in 2023,at around 2.2 terawatt-hours and 750 gigawatt-hours,respectively.Demand is likely to grow quickly:up seven times by 2035 compared with 2023 in the Stated Policies Scenario,nine times in the Announced Pledges Scenario,and 12 t

87、imes in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario,which lays out a pathway to reach net zero energy sector emissions by mid-century.Manufacturing capacity appears capable of keeping pace with demand:committed and existing battery manufacturing Global EV Outlook 2024 Executive Summary PAGE|13 IEA.CC BY

88、 4.0.capacity alone are practically aligned with the needs in a net zero pathway in 2030.Such prospects are opening significant opportunities across the supply chain for battery and mining companies,including in emerging markets outside China,although surplus capacity has been hurting margins and ma

89、y lead to further market consolidation.The pace of the transition to electric vehicles hinges on their affordability Electric cars are getting cheaper as competition intensifies,particularly in China,but they remain more expensive than cars with internal combustion engines in other markets.A rapid t

90、ransition to EVs will require bringing to market more affordable models.In China,we estimate that more than 60%of electric cars sold in 2023 were already cheaper than their average combustion engine equivalent.However,electric cars remain 10%to 50%more expensive than combustion engine equivalents in

91、 Europe and the United States,depending on the country and car segment.In 2023,two-thirds of available electric models globally were large cars,pick-up trucks or sports utility vehicles,pushing up average prices.When exactly price parity is reached is subject to a range of market variables,but curre

92、nt trends suggest that it could be reached by 2030 in major EV markets outside China for most models.The pricing strategies of car manufacturers will be crucial for improving affordability,as will the pace of EV battery price decline.Turmoil in battery metal markets in 2022 led to the first price in

93、crease for lithium-ion packs,which became 7%more expensive than in 2021.In 2023,however,the prices of the key metals used to make batteries dropped,leading to a near-14%fall in pack prices year-on-year.China still supplies the cheapest batteries,but prices across regions are converging as batteries

94、become a globalised commodity.Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries which are significantly cheaper than those based on lithium,nickel,manganese and cobalt oxide accounted for over 40%of global EV sales by capacity in 2023,more than double their share in 2020.Looking ahead,technological innovation will r

95、emain important for scaling up novel designs and chemistries such as sodium-ion batteries,which could cost as much as 20%less than lithium-based batteries without requiring any lithium.In developing economies outside China,more affordable electric car models are arriving,and the future of electric t

96、wo-and three-wheelers already looks bright.In 2023,55%to 95%of the electric car sales across major emerging and developing economies were large models that are unaffordable for the average consumer,hindering mass-market uptake.However,smaller and much more affordable models launched in 2022 and 2023

97、 have quickly become bestsellers,especially those by Chinese carmakers expanding overseas.Affordable electric two-and three-wheelers are also already available,helping deliver immediate Global EV Outlook 2024 Executive Summary PAGE|14 IEA.CC BY 4.0.benefits such as improved air quality and emissions

98、 reductions.Around 1.3 million electric two-wheelers were sold in India and Southeast Asia in 2023,accounting for 5%and 3%of total sales,respectively.One in five three-wheelers sold globally in 2023 was electric,and nearly 60%of those sold in India,boosted by the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of

99、 Electric Vehicles(FAME II)subsidy scheme.As electric vehicle markets mature,second-hand electric cars will become more widely available.In 2023,the market size for used electric cars was around 800 000 in China,400 000 in the United States,and over 450 000 across France,Germany,Italy,Spain,the Neth

100、erlands and the United Kingdom.The prices of used electric cars are falling quickly and becoming competitive with combustion engine equivalents.Looking ahead,international trade of used electric cars is also expected to increase,including to emerging and developing economies outside of China.The bat

101、tery recycling industry is getting ready for the 2030s.Recycling and reuse are needed for supply chain sustainability and security.Many technology developers are seeking to position themselves in EV end-of-life markets,but planned locations do not always align with where EV retirement may occur.Glob

102、al battery recycling capacity reached 300 gigawatt-hours in 2023.If all announced projects materialise,it could exceed 1 500 gigawatt-hours in 2030,of which 70%would be in China.Globally,announced recycling capacity is more than three times the supply of batteries that could potentially be recycled

103、in 2030,as EVs reach their end of life in the Announced Pledges Scenario.However,EV battery retirement is expected to grow rapidly from the second half of the 2030s.The roll-out of public charging needs to keep pace with EV sales The global number of installed public charging points was up 40%in 202

104、3 relative to 2022,and growth for fast chargers outpaced that of slower ones.In major EV markets,the deployment of charging points is continuing apace thanks to targeted policies.Broad,affordable access to public charging infrastructure will be needed for a mass-market switch to electric transport a

105、nd to enable longer journeys even if most charging continues to take place privately in residential and workplace settings.To reach EV deployment levels in the Announced Policies Scenario,public charging needs to increase sixfold by 2035.As more electric heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks and large

106、buses hit the road,dedicated and flexible charging is needed.In 2023,electric buses accounted for 3%of total bus sales.Electric truck sales jumped 35%compared with 2022,accounting for about 3%of truck sales in China and 1.5%in Europe.Under todays policy settings,the stock of electric buses increases

107、 sevenfold by 2035 and that of electric trucks around thirtyfold,supported by tougher emissions Global EV Outlook 2024 Executive Summary PAGE|15 IEA.CC BY 4.0.standards in the United States and European Union.This level of deployment could require a twentyfold jump in charging capacity by 2035 not o

108、nly in depots,but also along main transit routes to enable long-distance trucking.Increasing heavy-duty charging has important implications for expanding and operating electrical grids,with opportunities for greater flexibility and renewables integration.Policy support,careful planning and co-ordina

109、tion will be essential to ensure a secure,affordable and low-emissions supply of electricity with limited strain on local grids.Global EV Outlook 2024 Electric Vehicles Initiative PAGE|16 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Electric Vehicles Initiative The Electric Vehicles Initiative(EVI)is a multi-governmental policy f

110、orum established in 2010 under the Clean Energy Ministerial(CEM).Recognising the opportunities offered by EVs,the EVI is dedicated to accelerating the adoption of EVs worldwide.To do so,it strives to better understand the policy challenges related to electric mobility,to help governments address the

111、m and to serve as a platform for knowledge-sharing among government policy makers.The EVI also facilitates exchanges between government policy makers and a variety of other partners on topics important for the transition to electric mobility,such as charging infrastructure and grid integration as we

112、ll as EV battery supply chains.The International Energy Agency serves as the co-ordinator of the initiative.Governments that have been active in the EVI in the 2023-24 period include Canada,Chile,Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”),Finland,France,Germany,India,Japan,the Netherlands,New Zeala

113、nd,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Sweden,United Kingdom and United States.Canada,China,the Netherlands and the United States are the co-leads of the initiative.The Global EV Outlook annual series is the flagship publication of the EVI.It is dedicated to tracking and monitoring the progress of electric mobil

114、ity worldwide and to informing policy makers on how to best accelerate electrification of the road transport sector.(Co-lead)(Co-lead)(Co-lead)(Co-lead)Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|17 IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.Trends in electric cars Electric car sales Nearly one in five cars sold in 20

115、23 was electric Electric car sales neared 14 million in 2023,95%of which were in China,Europe and the United States Almost 14 million new electric cars1 were registered globally in 2023,bringing their total number on the roads to 40 million,closely tracking the sales forecast from the 2023 edition o

116、f the Global EV Outlook(GEVO-2023).Electric car sales in 2023 were 3.5 million higher than in 2022,a 35%year-on-year increase.This is more than six times higher than in 2018,just 5 years earlier.In 2023,there were over 250 000 new registrations per week,which is more than the annual total in 2013,te

117、n years earlier.Electric cars accounted for around 18%of all cars sold in 2023,up from 14%in 2022 and only 2%5 years earlier,in 2018.These trends indicate that growth remains robust as electric car markets mature.Battery electric cars accounted for 70%of the electric car stock in 2023.Global electri

118、c car stock trends,2010-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid vehicle.Includes passenger cars only.Sources:IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from ACEA,EAFO,EV Volumes and Marklines.1 Throughout this report,unless otherwise specified,“electric cars

119、”refers to both battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars,and“electric vehicles”(EVs)refers to battery electric(BEV)and plug-in hybrid(PHEV)vehicles,excluding fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEV).Unless otherwise specified,EVs include all modes of road transport.0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 452010 2011 2012

120、 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023MillionRest of the world PHEVRest of the world BEVUnited States PHEVUnited States BEVEurope PHEVEurope BEVChina PHEVChina BEVGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|18 IEA.CC BY 4.0.While sales of electric cars are increasing globall

121、y,they remain significantly concentrated in just a few major markets.In 2023,just under 60%of new electric car registrations were in the Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”),just under 25%in Europe,2 and 10%in the United States corresponding to nearly 95%of global electric car sales combined.

122、In these countries,electric cars account for a large share of local car markets:more than one in three new car registrations in China was electric in 2023,over one in five in Europe,and one in ten in the United States.However,sales remain limited elsewhere,even in countries with developed car market

123、s such as Japan and India.As a result of sales concentration,the global electric car stock is also increasingly concentrated.Nevertheless,China,Europe and the United States also represent around two-thirds of total car sales and stocks,meaning that the EV transition in these markets has major reperc

124、ussions in terms of global trends.In China,the number of new electric car registrations reached 8.1 million in 2023,increasing by 35%relative to 2022.Increasing electric car sales were the main reason for growth in the overall car market,which contracted by 8%for conventional(internal combustion eng

125、ine)cars but grew by 5%in total,indicating that electric car sales are continuing to perform as the market matures.The year 2023 was the first in which Chinas New Energy Vehicle(NEV)3 industry ran without support from national subsidies for EV purchases,which have facilitated expansion of the market

126、 for more than a decade.Tax exemption for EV purchases and non-financial support remain in place,after an extension,as the automotive industry is seen as one of the key drivers of economic growth.Some province-led support and investment also remains in place and plays an important role in Chinas EV

127、landscape.As the market matures,the industry is entering a phase marked by increased price competition and consolidation.In addition,China exported over 4 million cars in 2023,making it the largest auto exporter in the world,among which 1.2 million were EVs.This is markedly more than the previous ye

128、ar car exports were almost 65%higher than in 2022,and electric car exports were 80%higher.The main export markets for these vehicles were Europe and countries in the Asia Pacific region,such as Thailand and Australia.In the United States,new electric car registrations totalled 1.4 million in 2023,in

129、creasing by more than 40%compared to 2022.While relative annual growth in 2023 was slower than in the preceding two years,demand for electric cars and absolute growth remained strong.The revised qualifications for the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit,alongside electric car price cuts,meant that some popular

130、 EV models became eligible for credit in 2023.Sales of the Tesla Model Y,for example,increased 50%compared to 2022 after it became eligible for the full USD 7 500 tax credit.Overall,the new criteria established by the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)2 Throughout this report,unless otherwise specified,re

131、gional groupings refer to those described in the Annex.3 In the Chinese context,the term New Energy Vehicles(NEVs)includes BEVs,PHEVs and FCEVs.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|19 IEA.CC BY 4.0.appear to have supported sales in 2023,despite earlier concerns that tighter domestic c

132、ontent requirements for EV and battery manufacturing could create immediate bottlenecks or delays,such as for the Ford F-150 Lightning.As of 2024,new guidance for the tax credits means the number of eligible models has fallen to less than 30 from about 45,4 including several trim levels of the Tesla

133、 Model 3 becoming ineligible.However,in 2023 and 2024,leasing business models enable electric cars to qualify for the tax credits even if they do not fully meet the requirements,as leased cars can qualify for a less strict commercial vehicle tax credit and these tax credit savings can be passed to l

134、ease-holders.Such strategies have also contributed to sustained electric car roll-out.In Europe,new electric car registrations reached nearly 3.2 million in 2023,increasing by almost 20%relative to 2022.In the European Union,sales amounted to 2.4 million,with similar growth rates.As in China,the hig

135、h rates of electric car sales seen in Europe suggest that growth remains robust as markets mature,and several European countries reached important milestones in 2023.Germany,for example,became the third country after China and the United States to record half a million new battery electric car regis

136、trations in a single year,with 18%of car sales being battery electric(and another 6%plug-in hybrid).However,the phase-out of several purchase subsidies in Germany slowed overall EV sales growth.At the start of 2023,PHEV subsidies were phased out,resulting in lower PHEV sales compared to 2022,and in

137、December 2023,all EV subsidies ended after a ruling on the Climate and Transformation Fund.In Germany,the sales share for electric cars fell from 30%in 2022 to 25%in 2023.This had an impact on the overall electric car sales share in the region.In the rest of Europe,however,electric car sales and the

138、ir sales share increased.Around 25%of all cars sold in France and the United Kingdom were electric,30%in the Netherlands,and 60%in Sweden.In Norway,sales shares increased slightly despite the overall market contracting,and its sales share remains the highest in Europe,at almost 95%.4 Based on model

139、trim eligibility from the US government website as of 31 March 2024.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|20 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Electric car registrations and sales share in selected countries and regions,2015-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid vehicle

140、.Sources:IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from ACEA,EAFO,EV Volumes and Marklines.0%10%20%30%40%50%0 3 6 9 12 357192123WorldChinaEuropeUnited StatesMillion0%20%40%60%80%100%0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.05792123GermanyFranceUn

141、ited KingdomNetherlandsMillion0%25%50%75%100%0 50 100 150 2001517192123 1517192123 1517192123 1517192123 1517192123SwedenKoreaNorwayCanadaJapanThousandBEVPHEVSales share(right)Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|21 IEA.CC BY 4.0.For the first time,China was the front-runner in fuel c

142、ell electric vehicle deployment in 2023 In 2023,the global stock of fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs)increased by around 20%compared to 2022,reaching 87 600 by the end of the year.Of the 15 400 new FCEVs hitting the roads in 2023,about half were cars,around one-quarter were medium-and heavy-duty tr

143、ucks,and almost 10%were buses.The fastest-growing segment was light commercial vehicles,for which the stock approximately tripled in 2023,mainly thanks to sales in China.The stock of heavy-duty fuel cell trucks doubled.At the end of 2023,Asia accounted for over 70%of FCEVs worldwide,followed by Nort

144、h America with 20%and Europe with less than 10%.Korea is the leading country in terms of FCEV stock,accounting for almost 40%of all FCEVs,mainly due to its large passenger car fleet(exceeding 33 000).The United States is home to 18 200 FCEVs,almost all of which are fuel cell cars.The United States h

145、as the second-largest fuel cell car stock worldwide,with around 30%of the global stock.However,in 2023,China became home to the second-largest FCEV fleet,overtaking the United States,and constituting over 20%of the total FCEV stock.Despite having fewer than 800 fuel cell cars,China has the largest f

146、leet across all other segments.It accounts for around 95%of medium-and heavy-duty fuel cell trucks,90%of fuel cell LCVs,and just over 80%of fuel cell buses.However,China is still some distance less than halfway from meeting the governments aim of reaching 50 000 FCEVs by 2025.Fuel cell electric vehi

147、cle and hydrogen refuelling station stock by region,2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:FCEVs=fuel cell electric vehicles;HRS=hydrogen refuelling stations;PLDVs=passenger light-duty vehicles;LCVs=light commercial vehicles.Source:IEA analysis based on data from the Advanced Fuel Cells Technology Collaboration P

148、rogramme.For further information on the deployment status of FCEVs and other hydrogen-based technologies,see the IEA Global Hydrogen Review report series.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|22 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sales in emerging markets are increasing,albeit from a low base,led by Southe

149、ast Asia and Brazil Electric car sales continued to increase in emerging market and developing economies(EMDEs)outside China in 2023,but they remained low overall.In many cases,personal cars are not the most common means of passenger transport,especially compared with shared vans and minibuses,or tw

150、o-and three-wheelers(2/3Ws),which are more prevalent and more often electrified,given their relative accessibility and affordability.The electrification of 2/3Ws and public or shared mobility will be key to achieve emissions reductions in such cases(see later sections in this report).While switching

151、 from internal combustion engine(ICE)to electric cars is important,the effect on overall emissions differs depending on the mode of transport that is displaced.Replacing 2/3Ws,public and shared mobility or more active forms of transport with personal cars may not be desirable in all cases.In India,e

152、lectric car registrations were up 70%year-on-year to 80 000,compared to a growth rate of under 10%for total car sales.Around 2%of all cars sold were electric.Purchase incentives under the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles(FAME II)scheme,supply-side incentives under the Productio

153、n Linked Incentive(PLI)scheme,tax benefits and the Go Electric campaign have all contributed to fostering demand in recent years.A number of new models also became popular in 2023,such as Mahindras XUV400,MGs Comet,Citrons e-C3,BYDs Yuan Plus,and Hyundais Ioniq 5,driving up growth compared to 2022.H

154、owever,if the forthcoming FAME III scheme includes a subsidy reduction,as has been speculated in line with lower subsidy levels in the 2024 budget,future growth could be affected.Local carmakers have thus far maintained a strong foothold in the market,supported by advantageous import tariffs,and acc

155、ount for 80%of electric car sales in cumulative terms since 2010,led by Tata(70%)and Mahindra(10%).In Thailand,electric car registrations more than quadrupled year-on-year to nearly 90 000,reaching a notable 10%sales share comparable to the share in the United States.This is all the more impressive

156、given that overall car sales in the country decreased from 2022 to 2023.New subsidies,including for domestic battery manufacturing,and lower import and excise taxes,combined with the growing presence of Chinese carmakers,have contributed to rapidly increasing sales.Chinese companies account for over

157、 half the sales to date,and they could become even more prominent given that BYD plans to start operating EV production facilities in Thailand in 2024,with an annual production capacity of 150 000 vehicles for an investment of just under USD 500 million.Thailand aims to become a major EV manufacturi

158、ng hub for domestic and export markets,and is aiming to attract USD 28 billion in foreign investment within 4 years,backed by specific incentives to foster investment.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|23 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Electric car sales in selected countries and regions,2015-2023 I

159、EA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.For regional groupings,see Annex C.Sources:IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from ACEA,EAFO,EV Volumes,Marklines,Asomove,MDAE,and Andemos.0%3%6%9%12%15%0 20 40 60 80 23 1517192123 1517192

160、123 1517192123 1517192123ThailandIndiaViet NamIndonesiaMalaysiaThousand0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0 10 20 30 40 50 601517192123 1517192123 1517192123 1517192123 1517192123BrazilMexicoColombiaCosta RicaOther Latin AmericaThousand0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%0 5 10 15 20 25 301517192123 1517192123 1517192123South

161、 AfricaOther AfricaEurasia and Middle EastThousandBEVPHEVSales share(right)Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|24 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In Viet Nam,after an exceptional 2022 for the overall car market,car sales contracted by 25%in 2023,but electric car sales still recorded unprecedented grow

162、th:from under 100 in 2021,to 7 000 in 2022,and over 30 000 in 2023,reaching a 15%sales share.Domestic front-runner VinFast,established in 2017,accounted for nearly all domestic sales.VinFast also started selling electric sports utility vehicles(SUVs)in North America in 2023,as well as developing man

163、ufacturing facilities in order to unlock domestic content-linked subsidies under the US IRA.VinFast is investing around USD 2 billion and targets an annual production of 150 000 vehicles in the United States by 2025.The company went public in 2023,far exceeding expectations with a debut market valua

164、tion of around USD 85 billion,well beyond General Motors(GM)(USD 46 billion),Ford(USD 48 billion)or BMW(USD 68 billion),before it settled back down around USD 20 billion by the end of the year.VinFast also looks to enter regional markets,such as India and the Philippines.In Malaysia,electric car reg

165、istrations more than tripled to 10 000,supported by tax breaks and import duty exemptions,as well as an acceleration in charging infrastructure roll-out.In 2023,Mercedes-Benz marketed the first domestically assembled EV,and both BYD and Tesla also entered the market.In Latin America,electric car sal

166、es reached almost 90 000 in 2023,with markets in Brazil,Colombia,Costa Rica and Mexico leading the region.In Brazil,electric car registrations nearly tripled year-on-year to more than 50 000,a market share of 3%.Growth in Brazil was underpinned by the entry of Chinese carmakers,such as BYD with its

167、Song and Dolphin models,Great Wall with its H6,and Chery with its Tiggo 8,which immediately ranked among the best-selling models in 2023.Road transport electrification in Brazil could bring significant climate benefits given the largely low-emissions power mix,as well as reducing local air pollution

168、.However,EV adoption has been slow thus far,given the national prioritisation of ethanol-based fuels since the late 1970s as a strategy to maintain energy security in the face of oil shocks.Today,biofuels are important alternative fuels available at competitive cost and aligned with the existing ref

169、uelling infrastructure.Brazil remains the worlds largest producer of sugar cane,and its agribusiness represents about one-fourth of GDP.At the end of 2023,Brazil launched the Green Mobility and Innovation Programme,which provides tax incentives for companies to develop and manufacture low-emissions

170、road transport technology,aggregating to more than BRA 19 billion(Brazilian reals)(USD 3.8 billion)over the 2024-2028 period.Several major carmakers already in Brazil are developing hybrid ethanol-electric models as a result.Chinas BYD and Great Wall are also planning to start domestic manufacturing

171、,counting on local battery metal deposits,and plan to sell both fully electric and hybrid ethanol-electric models.BYD is investing over USD 600 million in its electric car plant in Brazil its first outside Asia for an annual capacity of 150 000 vehicles.BYD also partnered with Razen to develop charg

172、ing infrastructure in eight Brazilian cities starting in 2024.GM,on Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|25 IEA.CC BY 4.0.the other hand,plans to stop producing ICE(including ethanol)models and go fully electric,notably to produce for export markets.In 2024,Hyundai announced investmen

173、ts of USD 1.1 billion to 2032 to start local manufacturing of electric,hybrid and hydrogen cars.In Mexico,electric car registrations were up 80%year-on-year to 15 000,a market share just above 1%.Given its proximity to the United States,Mexicos automotive market is already well integrated with North

174、 American partners,and benefits from advantageous trade agreements,large existing manufacturing capacity,and eligibility for subsidies under the IRA.As a result,local EV supply chains are developing quickly,with expectations that this will spill over into domestic markets.Tesla,Ford,Stellantis,BMW,G

175、M,Volkswagen(VW)and Audi have all either started manufacturing or announced plans to manufacture EVs in Mexico.Chinese carmakers such as BYD,Chery and SAIC are also considering expanding to Mexico.Elsewhere in the region,Colombia and Costa Rica are seeing increasing electric car sales,with around 6

176、000 and 5 000 in 2023,respectively,but sales remain limited in other Central and South American countries.Throughout Africa,Eurasia and the Middle East,electric cars are still rare,accounting for less than 1%of total car sales.However,as Chinese carmakers look for opportunities abroad,new models inc

177、luding those produced domestically could boost EV sales.For example,in Uzbekistan,BYD set up a joint venture with UzAuto Motors in 2023 to produce 50 000 electric cars annually,and Chery International established a partnership with ADM Jizzakh.This partnership has already led to a steep increase in

178、electric car sales in Uzbekistan,reaching around 10 000 in 2023.In the Middle East,Jordan boasts the highest electric car sales share,at more than 45%,supported by much lower import duties relative to ICE cars,followed by the United Arab Emirates,with 13%.Policy support in Indonesia is attracting in

179、ternational majors and boosting electric car sales Until 2019,annual electric car sales in Indonesia were below 100,increasing tenfold to under 1 000 in 2020-2021.In 2022,annual sales jumped to over 10 000,and in 2023 they reached 17 000,supported by purchase incentives.Electric cars benefit from a

180、reduced Value-Added Tax of 1%(compared to 11%for conventional cars),are exempt from the luxury tax that applies to many vehicles,and from import tax,and are eligible for regional tax reductions.Increasing model availability is also helping boost sales.As in many other countries in the region,foreign

181、 carmakers especially Chinese are increasingly entering the market.Chinese companies accounted for 75%of electric car sales in 2022,and 45%in 2023.For example,Wulings Air EV,which is competitively Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|26 IEA.CC BY 4.0.priced relative to conventional ca

182、rs,at around IDR 220 million(Indonesian rupiah)(USD 14 000),has become a best-seller.Other best-selling models,such as Toyotas Kijang at IDR 420 million(USD 25 000)or Hyundais Ioniq at IDR 670 million(USD 42 000),remain more expensive than conventional equivalents,appealing to a pool of wealthier ea

183、rly adopters.In 2023,in order to promote domestic manufacturing,the government of Indonesia limited purchase incentives to models meeting local content requirements of 40%.As of 2023,only two models(Hyundais Ioniq and Wulings Air)met this criteria,which,alongside rising interest rates for credit-bac

184、ked car purchases,may have hampered growth.In 2023,sales fell short of the governments target of subsidising 36 000 electric cars,and at the end of the year,local content requirements were relaxed until 2026.As a result,international companies are now setting up manufacturing facilities in the count

185、ry,such as BYD and VinFast,both expected in 2024.Available BYD models will be priced at IDR 400 million(USD 25 000),and VinFast at IDR 250 million(USD 16 000).BYD plans to invest USD 1.3 billion in manufacturing facilities with an annual capacity of 150 000 cars,and VinFast to assemble 50 000 cars a

186、 year.Electric buses and 2/3Ws have not yet experienced the same success.In 2023,Indonesias 100 electric buses were primarily concentrated in Jakarta,and imported from China;the provincial government aims to add another 200 in 2024.Electric 2/3W sales reached about 11 500 in 2023,well below the gove

187、rnment target to subsidise 200 000.Factors limiting 2/3W uptake include low ranges and lack of charging points to enable interurban journeys.Looking forward,Indonesia aims to have 2 million electric cars and 13 million electric 2/3Ws on the road by 2030.The new capital city will mandate EVs as the m

188、ain means of transportation.Battery manufacturing capacity is also ramping up,capitalising on rich nickel reserves.In 2024,Indonesia announced a joint venture between Hyundai,LG Energy Solution,and Indonesia Battery Corporation,as part of a IDR 140 trillion(USD 9.8 billion)public support package.Str

189、ong electric car sales in the first quarter of 2024 surpass the annual total from just four years ago Electric car sales remained strong in the first quarter of 2024,surpassing those of the same period in 2023 by around 25%to reach more than 3 million.This growth rate was similar to the increase obs

190、erved for the same period in 2023 compared to 2022.The majority of the additional sales came from China,which sold about half a million more electric cars than over the same period in 2023.In relative terms,the most substantial growth was observed outside of the major EV markets,where sales increase

191、d by over 50%,suggesting that the transition to electromobility is picking up in an increasing number of countries worldwide.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|27 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Quarterly electric car sales,2021-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on data from on EV Volumes,

192、China Passenger Car Association and the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.From January to March of this year,nearly 1.9 million electric cars were sold in China,marking an almost 35%increase compared to sales in the first quarter of 2023.In March,NEV sales in China surpassed a share of 4

193、0%in overall car sales for the first time,according to retail sales reported by the China Passenger Car Association.As witnessed in 2023,sales of plug-in hybrid electric cars are growing faster than sales of pure battery electric cars.Plug-in hybrid electric car sales in the first quarter increased

194、by around 75%year-on-year in China,compared to just 15%for battery electric car sales,though the former started from a lower base.In Europe,the first quarter of 2024 saw year-on-year growth of over 5%,slightly above the growth in overall car sales and thereby stabilising the EV sales share at a simi

195、lar level as last year.Electric car sales growth was particularly high in Belgium,where around 60 000 electric cars were sold,almost 35%more than the year before.However,Belgium represents less than 5%of total European car sales.In the major European markets France,Germany,Italy and the United Kingd

196、om(together representing about 60%of European car sales)growth in electric car sales was lower.In France,overall EV sales in the first quarter grew by about 15%,with BEV sales growth being higher than for PHEVs.While this is less than half the rate as over the same period last year,total sales were

197、nonetheless higher and led to a slight increase in the share of EVs in total car sales.The United Kingdom saw similar year-on-year growth(over 15%)in EV sales as France,about the same rate as over the same period last year.In Germany,where battery electric car subsidies ended in 2023,sales of electr

198、ic cars fell by almost 5%in the first quarter of 2024,mainly as a result of a 20%year-on-year decrease in March.The share of EVs in total car sales was therefore slightly lower than last year.As in China,PHEV sales in both Germany and the United Kingdom were stronger than BEV sales.In Italy,sales of

199、 electric cars in 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q232024MillionRest of worldUnited StatesEuropeChinaGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|28 IEA.CC BY 4.0.the first three months of 2024 were more than 20%lower than over the same period in 2023,with the

200、 majority of the decrease taking place in the PHEV segment.However,this trend could be reversed based on the introduction of a new incentive scheme,and if Chinese automaker Chery succeeds in appealing to Italian consumers when it enters the market later this year.In the United States,first-quarter s

201、ales reached around 350 000,almost 15%higher than over the same period the year before.As in other major markets,the sales growth of PHEVs was even higher,at 50%.While the BEV sales share in the United States appears to have fallen somewhat over the past few months,the sales share of PHEVs has grown

202、.In smaller EV markets,sales growth in the first months of 2024 was much higher,albeit from a low base.In January and February,electric car sales almost quadrupled in Brazil and increased more than sevenfold in Viet Nam.In India,sales increased more than 50%in the first quarter of 2024.These figures

203、 suggest that EVs are gaining momentum across diverse markets worldwide.Since 2021,first-quarter electric car sales have typically accounted for 15-20%of the total global annual sales.Based on this observed trend,coupled with policy momentum and the seasonality that EV sales typically experience,we

204、estimate that electric car sales could reach around 17 million in 2024.This indicates robust growth for a maturing market,with 2024 sales to surpass those of 2023 by more than 20%and EVs to reach a share in total car sales of more than one-fifth.Electric car sales,2010-2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:2024 s

205、ales(“2024E”)are estimated based on market trends through the first quarter of 2024.Source:IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes(2024)and the China Passenger Car Association(2024).0 3 6 9 12 15 002020222024EMillionChinaEuropeUnited StatesRest of worldGlobal EV Outlook 2024

206、 Trends in electric cars PAGE|29 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The majority of the additional 3 million electric car sales projected for 2024 relative to 2023 are from China.Despite the phase-out of NEV purchase subsidies last year,sales in China have remained robust,indicating that the market is maturing.With stro

207、ng competition and relatively low-cost electric cars,sales are to grow by almost 25%in 2024 compared to last year,reaching around 10 million.If confirmed,this figure will come close to the total global electric car sales in 2022.As a result,electric car sales could represent around 45%of total car s

208、ales in China over 2024.In 2024,electric car sales in the United States are projected to rise by 20%compared to the previous year,translating to almost half a million more sales,relative to 2023.Despite reporting of a rocky end to 2023 for electric cars in the United States,sales shares are projecte

209、d to remain robust in 2024.Over the entire year,around one in nine cars sold are expected to be electric.Based on recent trends,and considering that tightening CO2 targets are due to come in only in 2025,the growth in electric car sales in Europe is expected to be the lowest of the three largest mar

210、kets.Sales are projected to reach around 3.5 million units in 2024,reflecting modest growth of less than 10%compared to the previous year.In the context of a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales,electric cars would still represent about one in four cars sold in Europe.Outside of the major

211、EV markets,electric car sales are anticipated to reach the milestone of over 1 million units in 2024,marking a significant increase of over 40%compared to 2023.Recent trends showing the success of both homegrown and Chinese electric carmakers in Southeast Asia underscore that the region is set to ma

212、ke a strong contribution to the sales of emerging EV markets(see the section on Trends in the electric vehicle industry).Despite some uncertainty surrounding whether Indias forthcoming FAME III scheme will include subsidies for electric cars,we expect sales in India to remain robust,and to experienc

213、e around 50%growth compared to 2023.Across all regions outside the three major EV markets,electric car sales are expected to represent around 5%of total car sales in 2024,which considering the high growth rates seen in recent years could indicate that a tipping point towards global mass adoption is

214、getting closer.There are of course downside risks to the 2024 outlook for electric car sales.Factors such as high interest rates and economic uncertainty could potentially reduce the growth of global electric car sales in 2024.Other challenges may come from the IRA restrictions on US electric car ta

215、x incentives,and the tightening of technical requirements for EVs to qualify for the purchase tax exemption in China.However,there are also upside potentials to consider.New markets may open up more rapidly than anticipated,as automakers expand their EV operations and new entrants compete for market

216、 share.This could lead to accelerated growth in electric car sales globally,surpassing the initial estimations.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|30 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Electric car availability and affordability More electric models are becoming available,but the trend is towards larger

217、ones The number of available electric car models nears 600,two-thirds of which are large vehicles and SUVs In 2023,the number of available models for electric cars increased 15%year-on-year to nearly 590,as carmakers scaled up electrification plans,seeking to appeal to a growing consumer base.Meanwh

218、ile,the number of fully ICE models(i.e.excluding hybrids)declined for the fourth consecutive year,at an average of 2%.Based on recent original equipment manufacturer(OEM)announcements,the number of new electric car models could reach 1 000 by 2028.If all announced new electric models actually reach

219、the market,and if the number of available ICE car models continues to decline by 2%annually,there could be as many electric as ICE car models before 2030.Car model availability by powertrain over 2010-2023 and in 2028 based on announced launches,and share of SUVs and large models among electric cars

220、 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:ICE=internal combustion engine.SUVs=sports utility vehicle.ICE does not include hybrids.Electric cars include BEV and PHEV cars.Analysis based on models for which there was at least one new registration in a given year;a model on sale but never sold is not counted,and as such ac

221、tual model availability may be underestimated.Large cars include E and F segments,multi-purpose vehicles and B segments with SUV body type.The SUV category encompasses segments C to F with SUV body type.The two columns for 2028 are based on electric model announcements,which are available only until

222、 2028,and on a sustained decrease in the number of ICE models based on the trend over 2020-2023.Source:IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes and Marklines.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0 250 500 7501 0001 2501 5001 75052728Available modelsICE carsElectric carsShare of

223、SUVs and large models among electric cars(right)Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|31 IEA.CC BY 4.0.As reported in GEVO-2023,the share of small and medium electric car models is decreasing among available electric models:in 2023,two-thirds of the battery-electric models on the marke

224、t were SUVs,5 pick-up trucks or large cars.Just 25%of battery electric car sales in the United States were for small and medium models,compared to 40%in Europe and 50%in China.Electric cars are following the same trend as conventional cars,and getting bigger on average.In 2023,SUVs,pick-up trucks an

225、d large models accounted for 65%of total ICE car sales worldwide,and more than 80%in the United States,60%in China and 50%in Europe.Several factors underpin the increase in the share of large models.Since the 2010s,conventional SUVs in the United States have benefited from less stringent tailpipe em

226、issions rules than smaller models,creating an incentive for carmakers to market more vehicles in that segment.Similarly,in the European Union,CO2 targets for passenger cars have included a compromise on weight,allowing CO2 leeway for heavier vehicles in some cases.Larger vehicles also mean larger ma

227、rgins for carmakers.Given that incumbent carmakers are not yet making a profit on their EV offer in many cases,focusing on larger models enables them to increase their margins.Under the US IRA,electric SUVs can qualify for tax credits as long as they are priced under USD 80 000,whereas the limit sta

228、nds at USD 55 000 for a sedan,creating an incentive to market SUVs if a greater margin can be gathered.On the demand side,there is now strong willingness to pay for SUVs or large models.Consumers are typically interested in longer-range and larger cars for their primary vehicles,even though small mo

229、dels are more suited to urban use.Higher marketing spend on SUVs compared to smaller models can also have an impact on consumer choices.The progressive shift towards ICE SUVs has been dramatically limiting fuel savings.Over the 2010-2022 period,without the shift to SUVs,energy use per kilometre coul

230、d have fallen at an average annual rate 30%higher than the actual rate.Switching to electric in the SUV and larger car segments can therefore achieve immediate and significant CO2 emissions reductions,and electrification also brings considerable benefits in terms of reducing air pollution and non-ta

231、ilpipe emissions,especially in urban settings.In 2023,if all ICE and HEV sales of SUVs had instead been BEV,around 770 Mt CO2 could have been avoided globally over the cars lifetimes(see section 10 on lifecycle analysis).This is equivalent to the total road emissions of China in 2023.5 SUVs may be d

232、efined differently across regions,but broadly refer to vehicles that incorporate features commonly found in off-road vehicles(e.g.four-wheel drive,higher ground clearance,larger cargo area).In this report,small and large SUVs both count as SUVs.Crossovers are counted as SUVs if they feature an SUV b

233、ody type;otherwise they are categorised as medium-sized vehicles.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|32 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Breakdown of battery electric car sales in selected countries and regions by car size,2018-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery electric vehicle;SUV=sports utility ve

234、hicle.Analysis based on sales-weighted registrations.Small cars include A and B segments.Medium cars include C and D segments and A segments with SUV body type.Large cars include E and F segments,multi-purpose vehicles and B segments with SUV body type.SUV category in figure encompasses segments C t

235、o F with SUV body type.Source:IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes.Nevertheless,from a policy perspective,it is critical to mitigate the negative spillovers associated with an increase in larger electric cars in the fleet.Larger electric car models have a significant impact on battery supply c

236、hains and critical mineral demand.In 2023,the sales-weighted average battery electric SUV in Europe had a battery almost twice as large as the one in the average small electric car,with a proportionate impact on critical mineral needs.Of course,the range of small cars is typically shorter than SUVs

237、and large cars(see later section on ranges).However,when comparing electric SUVs and medium-sized electric cars,which in 2023 offered a similar range,the SUV battery was still 25%larger.This means that if all electric SUVs sold in 2023 had instead been medium-sized cars,around 60 GWh of battery equi

238、valent could have been avoided globally,with limited impact on range.Accounting for the different chemistries used in China,Europe,and the United States,this would be equivalent to almost 6 000 tonnes of lithium,30 000 tonnes of nickel,almost 7 000 tonnes of cobalt,and over 8 000 tonnes of manganese

239、.Larger manganese also require more power,or longer charging times.This can put pressure on electricity grids and charging infrastructure by increasing occupancy,which could create issues during peak utilisation,such as at highway charging points at high traffic times.In addition,larger vehicles als

240、o require greater quantities of materials such as iron and steel,aluminium and plastics,with a higher environmental and carbon footprint for materials production,processing and assembly.Because they are heavier,larger models also have higher electricity consumption.The additional 0%20%40%60%80%100%1

241、8 19 20 21 22 23 18 19 20 21 22 23 18 19 20 21 22 23 18 19 20 21 22 23WorldChinaEuropeUnited StatesShare of BEV sales(%)SmallMediumLargeSUVPick-up truckGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|33 IEA.CC BY 4.0.energy consumption resulting from the increased mass is mitigated by regenerati

242、ve braking to some extent,but in 2022,the sales-weighted average electricity consumption of electric SUVs was 20%higher than that of other electric cars.6 Major carmakers have announced launches of smaller and more affordable electric car models over the past few years.However,when all launch announ

243、cements are considered,far fewer smaller models are expected than SUVs,large models and pick-up trucks.Only 25%of the 400+launches expected over the 2024-2028 period are small and medium models,which represents a smaller share of available models than in 2023.Even in China,where small and medium mod

244、els have been popular,new launches are typically for larger cars.Breakdown of available car models and expected new launches by powertrain and segment in selected countries and regions,2023-2028 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:ICE=Internal combustion engine;EV=electric vehicle.EV includes both battery electric

245、cars and plug-in hybrids.Data based on company announcements for new electric car model launches.“Launch”only refers to the expected models over the 2024-2028 period and is not cumulative with models available in 2023.Sources:IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes and Marklines.Several governmen

246、ts have responded by introducing policies to create incentives for smaller and lighter passenger cars.In Norway,for example,all cars are subject to a purchase tax based on weight,CO2 and nitrogen oxides(NOx)emissions,though electric cars were exempt from the weight-based tax prior to 2023.Any import

247、ed cars weighing more than 500 kg must also pay an entry fee for each additional kg.In France,a progressive weight-based tax applies to ICE and PHEV cars weighing above 1 600 kg,with a significant impact on price:weight tax for a Land Rover Defender 130(2 550 kg)adds up to more than EUR 21 500,versu

248、s zero for a Renault Clio(1 100 kg).Battery electric cars have been exempted to 6 Measured under the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure using vehicle model sales data from IHS Markit.0%20%40%60%80%100%2023(ICE)2023(EV)Launch(EV)2023(ICE)2023(EV)Launch(EV)2023(ICE)2023(EV)Launch(EV)20

249、23(ICE)2023(EV)Launch(EV)ChinaEuropeUnited StatesWorldAvailable models(%)Small carMedium carLarge carSUVPick-up truckGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|34 IEA.CC BY 4.0.date.In February 2024,a referendum held in Paris resulted in a tripling of city parking fees for visiting SUVs,app

250、licable to ICE,hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars above 1 600 kg and battery electric ones above 2 000 kg,in an effort to limit the use of large and/or polluting vehicles.Other examples exist in Estonia,Finland,Switzerland and the Netherlands.A number of policy options may be used,such as caps and fleet

251、 averages for vehicle footprint,weight,and/or battery size;access to finance for smaller vehicles;and sustained support for public charging,enabling wider use of shorter-range cars.Average range is increasing,but only moderately Concerns about range compared to ICE vehicles,and about the availabilit

252、y of charging infrastructure for long-distance journeys,also contribute to increasing appetite for larger models with longer range.Sales-weighted average range of battery electric cars by segment,2015-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:SUV=sports utility vehicle.Range in kilometres calculated using global wei

253、ghted average fuel economy(Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure WLTP)and battery capacity by size segment.Fuel economy reflects on-road conditions by applying a factor of 1.1.Small cars include A and B segments.Medium cars include C and D segments and A segments with SUV body type.Large

254、 cars include E and F segments,multi-purpose vehicles and B segments with SUV body type.SUV category in figure encompasses segments C to F with SUV body type.Source:IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes.With increasing battery size and improvements in battery technology and vehicle design,the s

255、ales-weighted average range of battery electric cars grew by nearly 75%between 2015 and 2023,although trends vary by segment.The average range of small cars in 2023 around 150 km is not much higher than it was in 2015,indicating that this range is already well suited for urban use(with the exception

256、 of taxis,which have much higher daily usage).Large,higher-end models already offered higher ranges than average in 2015,and their range has stagnated through 2023,averaging around 360-380 km.Meanwhile,significant improvements have been made for medium-sized cars and SUVs,the range of 0 100 200 300

257、40020002120222023kilometresSmall carMedium carLarge carSUVAverage carGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|35 IEA.CC BY 4.0.which now stands around 380 km,whereas it averaged around 150 km for medium cars and 270 km for SUVs in 2015.This is encouraging for consume

258、rs looking to purchase an electric car for longer journeys rather than urban use.Since 2020,growth in the average range of vehicles has been slower than over the 2015-2020 period.This could result from a number of factors,including fluctuating battery prices,carmakers attempts to limit additional co

259、sts as competition intensifies,and technical constraints(e.g.energy density,battery size).It could also reflect that beyond a certain range at which most driving needs are met,consumers willingness to pay for a marginal increase in battery size and range is limited.Looking forward,however,the averag

260、e range could start increasing again as novel battery technologies mature and prices fall.More affordable electric cars are needed to reach a mass-market tipping point An equitable and inclusive transition to electric mobility,both within countries and at the global level,hinges on the successful la

261、unch of affordable EVs(including but not limited to electric cars).In this section,we use historic sales and price data for electric and ICE models around the world to examine the total cost of owning an electric car,price trends over time,and the remaining electric premium,by country and vehicle si

262、ze.7 Specific models are used for illustration.Total cost of ownership Car purchase decisions typically involve consideration of retail price and available subsidies as well as lifetime operating costs,such as fuel costs,insurance,maintenance and depreciation,which together make up the total cost of

263、 ownership(TCO).Reaching TCO parity between electric and ICE cars creates important financial incentives to make the switch.This section examines the different components of the TCO,by region and car size.In 2023,upfront retail prices for electric cars were generally higher than for their ICE equiva

264、lents,which increased their TCO in relative terms.On the upside,higher fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs enable fuel cost savings for electric cars,lowering their TCO.This is especially true in periods when fuel prices are high,in places where electricity prices are not too closely correla

265、ted to fossil 7 Price data points collected from various data providers and ad-hoc sources cover 65-95%of both electric and ICE car sales globally.By“price”,we refer to the advertised price that the customer pays for the acquisition of the vehicle only,including legally required acquisition taxes(e.

266、g.including Value-Added Tax and registration taxes but excluding consumer tax credits).Prices reflect not only the materials,components and manufacturing costs,but also the costs related to sales and marketing,administration,R&D and the profit margin.In the case of a small electric car in Europe,for

267、 example,these mark-up costs can account for around 40%of the final pre-tax price.They account for an even greater share of the final pre-tax price when consumers purchase additional options,or opt for larger models,for which margins can be higher.The price for the same model may differ across count

268、ries or regions(e.g.in 2023,a VW ID.3 could be purchased in China at half its price in Europe).Throughout the whole section,prices are adjusted for inflation and expressed in constant 2022 USD.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|36 IEA.CC BY 4.0.fuel prices.Depreciation is also a maj

269、or factor in determining TCO:As a car ages,it loses value,and depreciation for electric cars tends to be faster than for ICE equivalents,further increasing their TCO.Accelerated depreciation could,however,prove beneficial for the development of second-hand markets.However,the trend towards faster de

270、preciation for electric vehicles might be reversed for multiple reasons.Firstly,consumers are gaining more confidence in electric battery lifetimes,thereby increasing the resale value of EVs.Secondly,strong demand and the positive brand image of some BEV models can mean they hold their value longer,

271、as shown by Tesla models depreciating more slowly than the average petrol car in the United States.Finally,increasing fuel prices in some regions,the roll-out of low-emissions zones that restrict access for the most polluting vehicles,and taxes and parking fees specifically targeted at ICE vehicles

272、could mean they experience faster depreciation rates than EVs in the future.In light of these two possible opposing depreciation trends,the same fixed annual depreciation rate for both BEVs and ICE vehicles has been applied in the following cost of ownership analysis.Subsidies help lower the TCO of

273、electric cars relative to ICE equivalents in multiple ways.A purchase subsidy lowers the original retail price,thereby lowering capital depreciation over time,and a lower retail price implies lower financing costs through cumulative interest.Subsidies can significantly reduce the number of years req

274、uired to reach TCO parity between electric and ICE equivalents.As of 2022,we estimate that TCO parity could be reached in most cases in under 7 years in the three major EV markets,with significant variations across different car sizes.In comparison,for models purchased at 2018 prices,TCO parity was

275、much harder to achieve.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|37 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Difference in total cost of ownership for a battery electric vehicle and a conventional car purchased in 2018 and 2022,by country and segment,over time after purchase IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:TCO=total cost of own

276、ership;SUV=sports utility vehicle.First owner cumulative cost of ownership with depreciation considered.Incentives include subsidies,vehicle purchase tax exemptions and tax credits.All calculation assumptions are listed in Table 1 located in the general annex of this document.Sources:IEA analysis ba

277、sed on IHS Markit data for sales-weighted average upfront purchase prices.China-100-500 50 100 15013579 11 13 15Electric TCO premium(%)Small-100-500 50 100 1501357911 13 15SUV-100-500 50 100 1501357911 13 15MediumGERMANY-100-500 50 100 15013579 11 13 15Electric TCO premium(%)Small-100-500 50 100 150

278、1357911 13 15SUV-100-500 50 100 1501357911 13 15Medium-100-500 50 100 15013579 11 13 15Electric TCO premium(%)Year after purchaseSmallPurchase in 2018(no incentives)Purchase in 2022(no incentives)Purchase in 2022(with incentives)-100-500 50 100 1501357911 13 15Year after purchaseSUV-100-500 50 100 1

279、501357911 13 15Year after purchaseMediumUnited StatesGermanyGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|38 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In Germany,for example,we estimate that the sales-weighted average price of a medium-sized battery electric car in 2022 was 10-20%more expensive than its ICE equivalent,bu

280、t 10-20%cheaper in cumulative costs of ownership after 5 years,thanks to fuel and maintenance costs savings.In the case of an electric SUV,we estimate that the average annual operating cost savings would amount to USD 1 800 when compared to the equivalent conventional SUV over a period of 10 years.I

281、n the United States,despite lower fuel prices with respect to electricity,the higher average annual mileage results in savings that are close to Germany at USD 1 600 per year.In China,lower annual distance driven reduces fuel cost savings potential,but the very low price of electricity enables savin

282、gs of about USD 1 000 per year.These figures provide an indication of how long it would take to recoup the initial purchase price gap between a BEV and its equivalent ICEV through operating cost savings.In EMDEs,some electric cars can also be cheaper than ICE equivalents over their lifetime.This is

283、true in India,for example,although it depends on the financing instrument.Access to finance is typically much more challenging in EMDEs due to higher interest rates and the more limited availability of cheap capital.Passenger cars have also a significantly lower market penetration in the first place

284、,and many car purchases are made in second-hand markets.Later sections of this report look at markets for used electric cars,as well as the TCO for electric and conventional 2/3Ws in EMDEs,where they are far more widespread than cars as a means of road transport.Breakdown of the cost of ownership fo

285、r a sales-weighted average medium-sized battery electric and conventional car purchased in 2022,5 years after purchase,by country IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:“BEV”=battery electric vehicle;“ICEV”=internal combustion engine vehicle.First owner cumulative cost of ownership 5 years after purchase.Financial inc

286、entives include subsidies,vehicle purchase tax exemptions and tax credits.All calculation assumptions are listed in Table 1 located in the general annex of this document.Sources:IEA analysis based on IHS Markit data for sales-weighted average upfront purchase prices.-30 000-20 000-10 000010 00020 00

287、030 00040 00050 00060 00070 000BEVICEVBEVICEVBEVICEVChinaGermanyUnited StatesUSD(2022)Capital(Purchase price+financing costs)Operating cost(fuel,maintenance,insurance costs)Resale valueFinancial incentivesNetGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|39 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Upfront retail price pa

288、rity Achieving price parity between electric and ICE cars will be an important tipping point.Even when the TCO for electric cars is advantageous,the upfront retail price plays a decisive role,and mass-market consumers are typically more sensitive to price premiums than wealthier buyers.This holds tr

289、ue not only in emerging and developing economies,which have comparatively high costs of capital and comparatively low household and business incomes,but also in advanced economies.In the United States,for example,surveys suggest affordability was the top concern for consumers considering EV adoption

290、 in 2023.Other estimates show that even among SUV and pick-up truck consumers,only 50%would be willing to purchase one above USD 50 000.In this section,we examine historic price trends for electric and ICE cars over the 2018-2022 period,by country and car size,and for best-selling models in 2023.Ele

291、ctric cars are generally getting cheaper as battery prices drop,competition intensifies,and carmakers achieve economies of scale.In most cases,however,they remain on average more expensive than ICE equivalents.In some cases,after adjusting for inflation,their price stagnated or even moderately incre

292、ased between 2018 and 2022.Larger batteries for longer ranges increase car prices,and so too do the additional options,equipment,digital technology and luxury features that are often marketed on top of the base model.A disproportionate focus on larger,premium models is pushing up the average price,w

293、hich added to the lack of available models in second-hand markets(see below)limits potential to reach mass-market consumers.Importantly,geopolitical tension,trade and supply chain disruptions,increasing battery prices in 2022 relative to 2021,and rising inflation,have also significantly affected the

294、 potential for further cost declines.Competition can also play an important role in bringing down electric car prices.Intensifying competition leads carmakers to cut prices to the minimum profit margin they can sustain,and if needed to do so more quickly than battery and production costs decline.For

295、 example,between mid-2022 and early-2024,Tesla cut the price of its Model Y from between USD 65 000 and USD 70 000 to between USD 45 000 and USD 55 000 in the United States.Battery prices for such a model dropped by only USD 3 000 over the same period in the United States,suggesting that a profit ma

296、rgin may still be made at a lower price.Similarly,in China,the price of the Base Model Y dropped from CNY 320 000(Yuan renminbi)(USD 47 000)to CNY 250 000(USD 38 000),while the corresponding battery price fell by only USD 1 000.Conversely,in cases where electric models remain niche or aimed at wealt

297、hier,less price-sensitive early adopters,their price may not fall as quickly as battery prices,if carmakers can sustain greater margins.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|40 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Price gap between the sales-weighted average price of conventional and electric cars in selecte

298、d countries,before subsidy,by size,2018 and 2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:SUV=Sports utility vehicle.“All”includes all car sizes(small,medium,SUV,large and pick-up trucks).A positive value means that the sales-weighted average battery electric car is more expensive than its internal combustion engine equ

299、ivalent.Sources:IEA analysis based on data from IHS Markit,EV Volumes,Marklines and various sources for retail prices.China In China,where the sales share of electric cars has been high for several years,the sales-weighted average price of electric cars(before purchase subsidy)is already lower than

300、that of ICE cars.This is true not only when looking at total sales,but also at the small cars segment,and is close for SUVs.After accounting for the EV exemption from the 10%vehicle purchase tax,electric SUVs were already on par with conventional ones in 2022,on average.Electric car prices have drop

301、ped significantly since 2018.We estimate that around 55%of the electric cars sold in China in 2022 were cheaper than their average ICE equivalent,up from under 10%in 2018.Given the further price declines between 2022 and 2023,we estimate that this share increased to around 65%in 2023.These encouragi

302、ng trends suggest that price parity between electric and ICE cars could also be reached in other countries in certain segments by 2030,if the sales share of electric cars continues to grow,and if supporting infrastructure such as for charging is sustained.-50%0%50%100%150%200%200222018202

303、220182022SmallMediumSUVAll segmentsElectric premium(%)ChinaFranceGermanyUnited KingdomUnited StatesGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|41 IEA.CC BY 4.0.As reported in detail in GEVO-2023,China remains a global exception in terms of available inexpensive electric models.Local carmaker

304、s already market nearly 50 small,affordable electric car models,many of which are priced under CNY 100 000(USD 15 000).This is in the same range as best-selling small ICE cars in 2023,which cost from CNY 70 000 to CNY 100 000.In 2022,the best-selling electric car was SAICs small Wuling Hongguang Min

305、i EV,which accounted for 10%of all BEV sales.It was priced around CNY 40 000,weighing under 700 kg for a 170-km range.In 2023,however,it was overtaken by Tesla models,among other larger models,as new consumers seek longer ranges and higher-end options and digital equipment.Share of battery electric

306、car sales in China that are more or less expensive than conventional equivalents,by car size,2018-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:SUV=sports utility vehicle.The price of each battery electric vehicle sale is compared to the sales-weighted average price of all internal combustion engine(conventional)vehicle

307、s within the same segment.Price data excludes any vehicle purchase tax exemption or vehicle purchase subsidy.Sources:IEA analysis based on data from IHS Markit.United States In the United States,the sales-weighted average price of electric cars decreased over the 2018-2022 period,primarily driven by

308、 a considerable drop in the price of Tesla cars,which account for a significant share of sales.The sales-weighted average retail price of electric SUVs fell slightly more quickly than the average SUV battery costs over the same period.The average price of small and medium models also decreased,albei

309、t to a smaller extent.Across all segments,electric models remained more expensive than conventional equivalents in 2022.However,the gap has since begun to close,as market size increases and competition leads carmakers to cut prices.For example,in 2023-2024,Teslas Model 3 could be found in the USD 39

310、 000 to USD 42 000 range,which is comparable to the average price for new ICE cars,and a new Model Y 0%20%40%60%80%100%2002220022SmallMediumSUVAllMore expensive than average conventional equivalentLess expensive than average conventional equivalentGlobal EV Outlook 2024 Trends

311、in electric cars PAGE|42 IEA.CC BY 4.0.priced under USD 50 000 was launched.Rivian is expecting to launch its R2 SUV in 2026 at USD 45 000,which is much less than previous vehicles.Average price parity between electric and conventional SUVs could be reached by 2030,but it may only be reached later f

312、or small and medium cars,given their lower availability and popularity.Smaller,cheaper electric models have further to go to reach price parity in the United States.We estimate that in 2022,only about 5%of the electric cars sold in the United States were cheaper than their average ICE equivalent.In

313、2023,the cheapest electric cars were priced around USD 30 000(e.g.Chevrolet Bolt,Nissan Leaf,Mini Cooper SE).To compare,best-selling small ICE options cost under USD 20 000(e.g.Kia Rio,Mitsubishi Mirage),and many best-selling medium ICE options between USD 20 000 and USD 25 000(e.g.Honda Civic,Toyot

314、a Corolla,Kia Forte,Hyundai Avante,Nissan Sentra).Around 25 new all-electric car models are expected in 2024,but only 5 of them are expected below USD 50 000,and none under the USD 30 000 mark.Considering all the electric models expected to be available in 2024,about 75%are priced above USD 50 000,a

315、nd fewer than 10 under USD 40 000,even after taking into account the USD 7 500 tax credit under the IRA for eligible cars as of February 2024.This means that despite the tax credit,few electric car models directly compete with small mass-market ICE models.Number of available battery electric car mod

316、els in the United States,by retail price after tax credit when eligible,2023 and 2024 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Data as of February 2024.Clean Vehicle Tax Credit applied where applicable.Sources:IEA analysis based on data from InsideEVs.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 100Number of available modelsthousand USD20232

317、024Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|43 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In December 2023,GM stopped production of its best-selling electric car,the Bolt,announcing it would introduce a new version in 2025.The Nissan Leaf(40 kWh)therefore remains the cheapest available electric car in 2024,at just un

318、der USD 30 000,but is not yet eligible for IRA tax credits.Ford announced in 2024 that it would move away from large and expensive electric cars as a way to convince more consumers to switch to electric,at the same time as increasing output of ICE models to help finance a transition to electric mobi

319、lity.In 2024,Tesla announced it would start producing a next-generation,compact and affordable electric car in June 2025,but the company had already announced in 2020 that it would deliver a USD 25 000 model within 3 years.Some micro urban electric cars are already available between USD 5 000 and US

320、D 20 000(e.g.Arcimoto FUV,Nimbus One),but they are rare.In theory,such models could cover many use cases,since 80%of car journeys in the United States are under 10 miles.Europe Pricing trends differ across European countries,and typically vary by segment.In Norway,after taking into account the EV sa

321、les tax exemption,electric cars are already cheaper than ICE equivalents across all segments.In 2022,we estimate that the electric premium stood around-15%,and even-30%for medium-sized cars.Five years earlier,in 2018,the overall electric premium was less advantageous,at around-5%.The progressive rei

322、ntroduction of sales taxes on electric cars may change these estimates for 2023 onwards.Germanys electric premium ranks among the lowest in the European Union.Although the sales-weighted average electric premium increased slightly between 2018 and 2022,it stood at 15%in 2022.It is particularly low f

323、or medium-sized cars(10-15%)and SUVs(20%),but remains higher than 50%for small models.In the case of medium cars,the sales-weighted average electric premium was as low as EUR 5 000 in 2022.We estimate that in 2022,over 40%of the medium electric cars sold in Germany were cheaper than their average IC

324、E equivalent.Looking at total sales,over 25%of the electric cars sold in 2022 were cheaper than their average ICE equivalent.In 2023,the cheapest models among the best-selling medium electric cars were priced between EUR 22 000 and EUR 35 000(e.g.MG MG4,Dacia Spring,Renault Megane),far cheaper than

325、the three front-runners priced above EUR 45 000(VW ID.3,Cupra Born,and Tesla Model 3).To compare,best-selling ICE cars in the medium segment were also priced between EUR 30 000 and EUR 45 000(e.g.VW Golf,VW Passat Santana,Skoda Octavia Laura,Audi A3,Audi A4).At the end of 2023,Germany phased out its

326、 subsidy for electric car purchases,but competition and falling model prices could compensate for this.Global EV Outlook 2024 Trends in electric cars PAGE|44 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Retail price of cheapest electric and conventional cars as a share of median annual household income(left)and top 10%annual hous

327、ehold income(right),by country and car size,2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:“BEV”=battery electric vehicle;“ICEV”=internal combustion engine vehicle;“USA”=United States;SUV=sports utility vehicle.Car prices are for base models with no additional options or equipment.For BEV sales,the sample covers price da

328、ta for 60-90%in China,75-100%in the United States,and 85-95%in Europe,depending on the segment.For ICEV sales,the sample covers price data for the top 40-55%of total sales.Annual income values are used.Median household income values are around USD 14 000 in China,USD 43 000 in Europe(data for German

329、y),and USD 80 000 in the United States.Top 10%income values are around USD 32 000 in China,USD 84 000 in Europe(data for Germany)and USD 200 000 in the United States.Sources:IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes,Marklines and various sources for retail prices,and from the World Bank for income.

330、In France,the sales-weighted average electric premium stagnated between 2018 and 2022.The average price of ICE cars also increased over the same period,though more moderately than that of electric models.Despite a drop in the price of electric SUVs,which stood at a 30%premium over ICE equivalents in

331、 2022,the former do not account for a high enough share of total electric car sales to drive down the overall average.The electric premium for small and medium cars remains around 40-50%.These trends mirror those of some of the best-selling models.For example,when adjusting prices for inflation,the

332、small Renault Zoe was sold at the same price on average in 2022-2023 as in 2018-2019,or EUR 30 000(USD 32 000).It could be found for sale at as low as EUR 25 000 in 2015-2016.The earlier models,in 2015,had a battery size of around 20 kWh,which increased to around 40 kWh in 2018-2019 and 50 kWh in ne

333、wer models in 2022-2023.Yet European battery prices fell more quickly than the battery size increased over the same period,indicating that battery size alone does not explain car price dynamics.In 2023,the cheapest electric cars in France were priced between EUR 22 000 and EUR 30 000(e.g.Dacia Spring,Renault Twingo E-Tech,Smart EQ Fortwo),while best-selling small ICE models were available between