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1、1WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONWholesale Gas Price Survey 2024 EditionA Global Review of Price Formation Mechanisms2005 to 20232WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONPRESIDENTS MESSAGE 5Section 1:EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6Section 2:INTRODUCTION 13 2.1 Background 14 2.2 Types of Price Formation Me

2、chanisms 14 2.3 Analysing the Results 15 2.4 Report Layout 15Section 3:WORLD RESULTS 16 3.1 Introduction 17 3.2 Domestic Production 17 3.2.1 2023 Survey Results-Domestic Production 17 3.2.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons-Domestic Production 18 3.3 Pipeline Imports 19 3.3.1 2023 Survey Results-Pipeline Imp

3、orts 19 3.3.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons-Pipeline Imports 21 3.4 LNG Imports 22 3.4.1 2023 Survey Results-LNG imports 22 3.4.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons-LNG Imports 22 3.5 Total Imports 27 3.5.1 2023 Survey Results-Total Imports 27 3.5.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons-Total Imports 28 3.6 Total Consumption 2

4、9 3.6.1 2023 Survey Results-Total Consumption 29 3.6.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons-Total Consumption 32 3.7 Analysis of Gas-On-Gas Competition and Oil Price Escalation 37 3.7.1 Gas-On-Gas Competition 37 3.7.2 Change in GOG and OPE by Consumption Category 38 3.7.3 Where are the main OPE areas?40 3.8 Foc

5、us on Asia 42 Section 4:WHOLESALE PRICE LEVELS 46 4.1 Introduction 47 4.2 2023 Survey Results 47 4.2.1 Price Levels by Price Formation Mechanism 47 4.2.2 Price Levels by Region and Country 48 4.3 Comparisons 2005 to 2023 50 4.3.1 Changes in Wholesale Prices by Price Formation Mechanisms 50 4.3.2 Cha

6、nges in Wholesale Prices by Region 51 Section 5:GLOBAL GAS PRICE CONVERGENCE 53 5.1 Introduction 54 5.2 Measuring Price Convergence 54 5.3 Price Convergence Using the Survey Data 54 5.4 Conclusions 60Appendix A:REGIONAL LEVEL RESULTS 61Appendix B:SURVEY METHODOLOGY 82Appendix C:GLOSSARY 88Contents3W

7、HOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONFigure 1 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 Total Consumption 9 Figure 2 Wholesale Price Formation Mechanisms Map 9Figure 3 Global LNG Imports:Price Formation and Share of Spot 2005 to 2023 10Figure 4 Spot LNG Imports 2005 to 2023 11Figure 5 Wholesale Price Leve

8、ls 2005 to 2023 by Region 12Figure 6 World Price Formation 2023 Domestic Production 17Figure 7 Regional Price Formation 2023 Domestic Production 18Figure 8 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 Domestic Production 19Figure 9 World Price Formation 2023 Pipeline Imports 20Figure 10 Regional Price Formati

9、on 2023 Pipeline Imports 20Figure 11 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 Pipeline Imports 21Figure 12 World Price Formation 2023 LNG Imports 22Figure 13 Regional Price Formation 2023 LNG Imports 23Figure 14 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 LNG Imports 24Figure 15 GOG LNG Imports 2005 to 2023 25Figu

10、re 16 Global LNG Imports:Price Formation and Share of Spot 2005 to 2023 25Figure 17 GOG Spot LNG Imports 2005 to 2023 26Figure 18 World Price Formation 2023 Total Imports 27Figure 19 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 Total Imports 28Figure 20 World Price Formation 2023 Total Consumption 29Figure 21

11、 Regional Price Formation 2023 Total Consumption 30Figure 22 Wholesale Price Formation Mechanisms Map 31Figure 23 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 Total Consumption 32Figure 24 Market and Regulated Pricing 2005 to 2023 36Figure 25 Changes in GOG in Total Consumption by Type 2005 to 2023 38Figure 2

12、6 Changes in GOG by Consumption Category 2005 to 2023 39Figure 27 Changes in OPE by Consumption Category 2005 to 2023 39Figure 28 OPE Domestic Production 40Figure 29 OPE Pipeline Imports 41Figure 30 OPE LNG Imports 41Figure 31 China Price Formation 2005 to 2023 42Figure 32 South Asia Price Formation

13、 2005 to 2023 43 Figure 33 Japan,Korea and Chinese Taipei Price Formation 2005 to 2023 44 Figure 34 ASEAN Price Formation 2005 to 2023 44Figure 35 Oceania Price Formation 2005 to 2023 45Figure 36 Wholesale Prices in 2023 by Price Formation Mechanism 47Figure 37 Wholesale Prices in 2023 by Region 48F

14、igure 38 Wholesale Prices in 2023 by Market 49Figure 39 Wholesale Price Levels 2005 to 2023 by Price Formation Mechanism 50Figure 40 Wholesale Price Levels 2005 to 2023 by Region 51Figure 41 Average Price and Standard Deviation of the Full Dataset 55Figure 42 Global Gas Price Variation Trend 55Figur

15、e 43 Price Convergence for Gas Importing Markets 56Figure 44 Price Convergence for Market Related Prices 56Figure 45 Price Convergence Dynamic for Non-Market and Market Related Prices 57Figure 46 Price Convergence for OPE Prices 57Figure 47 Number of Markets where OPE or GOG is the Majority Mechanis

16、m 58Figure 48 Price Convergence for Market Related and GOG Prices 58Figure 49 Price Convergence for OPE and GOG Prices 59Figure 50 Price Convergence for Europe 59Figure 51 Price Convergence for Pipeline and LNG Importing Countries 60Figure 52 North America Price Formation 2023 62Figure 53 North Amer

17、ica Price Formation 2005 to 2023 63Figure 54 Europe Price Formation 2023 64Figure 55 Europe Price Formation 2005 to 2023 65Figures4WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONFigure 56 Northwest Europe Price Formation 2005 to 2023 66Figure 57 Central Europe Price Formation 2005 to 2023 66Figure 58 Medite

18、rranean Price Formation 2005 to 2023 67Figure 59 Southeast Europe Price Formation 2005 to 2023 68Figure 60 Scandinavia and Baltics Price Formation 2005 to 2023 68Figure 61 Asia Price Formation 2023 69Figure 62 Asia Price Formation 2005 to 2023 70Figure 63 Asia Pacific Price Formation 2023 71Figure 6

19、4 Asia Pacific Price Formation 2005 to 2023 72Figure 65 Latin America Price Formation 2023 73Figure 66 Latin America Price Formation 2005 to 2023 74Figure 67 Former Soviet Union Price Formation 2023 75Figure 68 Former Soviet Union Price Formation 2005 to 2023 76Figure 69 Africa Price Formation 2023

20、77Figure 70 Africa Price Formation 2005 to 2023 78Figure 71 Middle East Price Formation 2023 79Figure 72 Middle East Price Formation 2005 to 2023 80Figure 73 IGU Regions 81Figure 74 Data Collection Form 84Table 1 World Price Formation 2023 Total Imports 27Table 2 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 T

21、otal Imports 28Table 3 World Price Formation 2023 Total Consumption 30Table 4 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 Total Consumption 33Figures5WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONPresidents MessageWelcome to the 16th annual edition of the flagship International Gas Union Wholesale Gas Price Survey

22、report.Global gas market functioning and liquidity remain pivotal to energy security and the operation of the global energy systems,as the world continues to face a great amount of turbulence with a continued global energy crisis and active armed conflicts still ongoing in the Ukraine and the Middle

23、 East.The 2023 survey showed a welcome cooling of the price levels across the globe,but they still remained the second highest recorded.The global gas market continues to rebalance,as Europe remains focused on energy security away from Russian gas volumes,while LNG spot import volumes have increased

24、 again,reflecting a rebound in China and further growth in Europe.The growing flexibility of the gas market permits the adaptation and redrawing of the global gas trade map,without interrupting the movement of molecules globally,which makes it an indispensable reinforcer of energy security.The sixte

25、en surveys of the WGP report series are a unique source of information on global wholesale gas price trends which illustrates the significant evolution in the wholesale price formation mechanisms.I congratulate the IGU Strategy Committee which launched the series in 2006 and thank them for bringing

26、this important work to life.The International Gas Union is a global voice of the gas industry.IGUs more than 140 members in over 80 countries represent 90%of the global gas market and every segment of the gas value chain,from exploration and production of natural gas,low and zero carbon gas and tech

27、nologies,to transit,pipelines and LNG,and through distribution and final use.Our global cross-segment membership translates into one of the most extensive knowledge networks in the energy industry.Hundreds of professionals from member organisations work in the IGU Committees and Task Forces to produ

28、ce insightful industry reports and to help design the Technical Program of one of the biggest global energy events,the World Gas Conference,with its next edition in Beijing,China,in 2025.The Committees also play a role in shaping the technical component of the IGUs two additional flagship global gas

29、 events,including the International LNG Conference series and the upcoming International Gas Research Conference(IGRC2024)in Banff,Canada.I hope that you will find the report informative and helpful.Li YalanPresident,IGU6WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 1Section 1Section 16WHOLESALE GA

30、S PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONExecutive Summary7WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONThis is the sixteenth IGU Wholesale Gas Price Survey1,which began in 2005.The survey was launched to assess global wholesale price formation mechanisms and track their evolution.It classifies global wholesale price f

31、ormation mechanisms into nine distinct categories(see table below)and quantifies the share of each mechanism in wholesale gas prices across the world2.In the 2023 survey,responses covered some 98%of total world consumption3.Oil Price Escalation Gas-on-Gas Competition Netback from Final Product Regul

32、ation:Cost of Service Bilateral Monopoly Regulation:Social and No Price(NP)Not Known(NK)No data or evidence.Regulation:Below Cost PRICE FORMATION MECHANISMS1 The survey has been undertaken by Mike Fulwood,Senior Research Fellow,Oxford Institute of Energy Studies,under the guidance of the IGU Secreta

33、riat and reviewed by the IGU Strategy Committee.2 The wholesale price would typically be a hub price(e.g.Henry Hub or the NBP),but in markets where there is no hub price,it could typically be a border price,or could be approximated by wellhead prices or city-gate prices.Generally,the wholesale price

34、 is likely to be determined somewhere between the entry to the main high-pressure transmission system and the exit points to local distribution companies or very large end users.3 Due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war,responses from the Former Soviet Union markets remained challenging to obtain,and

35、some data was researched by the author.Section 1 Executive Summary(OPE)The wholesale gas price is linked,usually through a base price and an escalation clause,to competing fuels,typically crude oil,gas oil and/or fuel oil.In some cases,coal prices can be used as can electricity prices.(GOG)The whole

36、sale gas price is determined by the interplay of direct gas supply and demand gas-on-gas competition and is traded over a variety of different periods(daily,monthly,annually or other periods).This includes gas traded on a short-term hub-priced basis and longer-term contracts that use gas price indic

37、es to determine the monthly price.(BIM)The price is determined by bilateral discussions and agreements between a large seller and a large buyer,with the price being fixed for a period of time typically one year.There may be a written contract in place but often the arrangement is at the Government o

38、r state-owned company level.(NET)The price received by the gas supplier is a function of the price received by the buyer for the final product the buyer produces.This may occur where the gas is used as a feedstock in chemical plants,such as ammonia or methanol,and is the major variable cost in produ

39、cing the product.(RCS)The price is determined,or approved,formally by a regulatory authority,or possibly a Ministry,but the level is set to cover the“cost of service”,including the recovery of investment and a reasonable rate of return.Political(RSP)The price is set,on an irregular basis on a politi

40、cal/social basis,in response to the need to cover increasing costs,or possibly as a revenue raising exercise a hybrid between RCS and RBC.(RBC)The price is knowingly set below the average cost of producing and transporting the gas often as a form of state subsidy to the population.The gas produced i

41、s either provided free to the population and industry,possibly as a feedstock for chemical and fertilizer plants,or in refinery processes and enhanced oil recovery.The gas produced maybe associated with oil and/or liquids and treated as a by-product.8WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONKey Findin

42、gs Wholesale Gas Price FormationSince the start of the survey series,gas markets have been undergoing a significant transformation,with the most important trend being the growth of the share of competitively priced via gas-on-gas(GOG)competition,largely at the expense of oil-price-escalation(OPE)pri

43、cing,and forms of regulated pricing.In recent years the GOG share of LNG imports has grown significantly,with the addition of Henry Hub linked long term contracts and the rise in spot LNG cargoes,such that in 2023 GOG pricing accounted for just under 50%of total LNG imports.Most of the rise in GOG,a

44、nd decline in OPE,between 2005 and 2017 were driven by changes in pipeline imports in Europe,with OPE almost disappearing in Northwest Europe4 and Central Europe5,thanks in large part to the European energy market reform and liberalisation over that period.4 Belgium,Denmark,France,Germany,Ireland,Lu

45、xembourg,Netherlands,UK.5 Austria,Czech Republic,Hungary,Poland,Slovakia,Switzerland.The remaining enclaves of OPE in Europe are in Turkey,Southeast Europe(including Greece),which still receive some Russian pipeline gas,plus Spain and Portugal,with Algerian pipeline gas and legacy LNG contracts.Sinc

46、e 2016,the displacement of OPE by GOG,has largely been a result of the rise in GOG pricing share in LNG imports,especially via spot market LNG trade.Section 1 Executive Summary Up until 2016,there was a switch away from regulated pricing mechanisms towards the more “market-based”pricing mechanisms s

47、uch as GOG and OPE.Since then that move has paused,with the key change in pricing mechanisms being in the non-regulated LNG market.Within the regulated categories,the big changes occurred between 2005 and 2012,seen in a move away from subsidised pricing or regulated below cost(RBC)to higher,but stil

48、l regulated,prices.Between 2005 and 2023,the GOG share of global gas consumption rose from 31.5%to 50%,while the oil-price-escalation(OPE)indexed price mechanism share fell from 24%to 18%.Following the shocks to prices in 2022,where the GOG share rose to over 50%(50.5%)of global gas consumption for

49、the first time,the share fell back to just under 50%(49.7%),as a result of a move in Indias domestic pricing to OPE(which now dominates the market in India)and relatively weak European demand.The rise in spot LNG imports(GOG)into Europe and China offset some of this fall.As a consequence of the chan

50、ge in India,the OPE share recovered slightly from its historic 2022 low.9WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONThe map below shows the main price formation mechanism by market.For each market the highest share is used to categorise the dominant price formation mechanism for that market.OPE and GOG

51、are self-explanatory,regulated covers the 3 categories RCS,RSP and RBC,while Other is predominantly BIM the bilateral monopoly category.Figure 2 Wholesale Price Formation Mechanisms MapSection 1 Executive SummaryFigure 1 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 Total Consumption0%25%50%75%100%200520102015

52、2000222023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%25%50%75%100%OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP2005200020202120222023OtherRegulated Oil Price EscalationGas on Gas CompetitionWholesale Gas Prices 202310WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONEurope is now almost all GOG,with even S

53、pain and Turkey having more GOG than OPE.GOG represents 84%of Europes pricing,with almost all domestic production,82%of pipeline imports,and 84%of LNG imports,priced in GOG.By contrast,in 2005 the first survey only the UK,in Europe,had any significant levels of GOG.OPE is still the largest category

54、in most Asian countries,even in Malaysia,Vietnam and the Philippines,where it is mostly domestic production,and also in India following the change in the domestic pricing mechanism,away from linkage to international hub prices to oil linked pricing.In a large area of the world covering the Former So

55、viet Union,the Middle East and North Africa prices remain largely regulated.Section 1 Executive SummaryKey Findings LNG MarketThe growth in the share of total GOG in LNG trade took off in 2017.The total GOG share of LNG imports nearly doubled between 2016,when it was 25%,and 2023 at just under 50%wh

56、en it reached 49.7%of all LNG trade.Between 2016 and 2018,the rise was all driven by rapid growth in spot LNG trade,while in 2019 the increase was partly spot LNG imports and partly the significant rush of LNG to Europes traded markets.In 2020 and in 2021 there was another notable increase,particula

57、rly as in 2021 much more Henry Hub-priced US LNG entered the market.The share of spot LNG6 rose sharply in 2023 to 38%,from a 35%share in 2022,which was up on 2021 as well.The rise in 2023 reflected a rebound in China from a weak 2022 and further growth in spot LNG into Europe.In 2017,the volume of

58、OPE in LNG imports was 272 bcm,with GOG at 110 bcm.In 2023,despite the 120 bcm growth in LNG trade since 2017,the volume of OPE had fallen to 252 bcm with GOG rising to 249 bcm.6 The definition of Spot LNG in this survey includes spot cargoes and contracts under one year.This makes it distinct from

59、the definition used by GIIGNL in their annual report,for spot and short-term trades,which included contracts up to four years.LNG being imported into the trading markets of North America and Northwest Euro)pe,is now split between Spot and Traded volumes,to avoid the categorisation of some spot volum

60、es as traded volumes.In addition,in some countries we have also attempted to categorise US cargoes,which are spot and those under contracts with Henry Hub linked pricing,which would be included in the“Traded”category.Figure 3 Global LNG Imports:Price Formation and Share of Spot-2005 to 20230.0%10.0%

61、20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0%25%50%75%100%2005200720092000020202120222023%Spot LNG OPEGOG TradedGOG Spot%Spot LNG0%25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202310.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0.0%Spot LNGOPEGOG TradedGOG Spot%Spot LNG

62、11WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONIt is notable that the growth of spot LNG imports prior to 2010,was predominantly in the Asia Pacific region,with the growth in Asia starting post-2010.The spot LNG volume in Europe was relatively low until 2018,with the GOG LNG imports being mainly into the

63、traded Northwest Europe markets.The rise in spot LNG,from 2016,was largely a consequence of the surge in US LNG exports.Since 2016,there have been increasing volumes of spot LNG into the Asian markets of India and China,especially the latter,and into Japan and South Korea(Asia Pacific).Spot LNG into

64、 Europe began growing strongly in 2019,as rising LNG supplies found a home there.Spot LNG into China reached a record of almost 50 bcm in 2021,but this more than halved in 2022,with flat China gas demand,and the pull of Europe for spot cargoes where spot volumes of 64 bcm were almost 40%of total LNG

65、 imports into Europe.Asia Pacific volumes in 2022 rose slightly with increases in South Korea,Chinese Taipei and Thailand,more than offsetting declines in Japan and elsewhere.As noted earlier the 2023 rise came from a recovery in China and more spot LNG into Europe.Asia Pacific volumes were little c

66、hanged with higher volumes into Thailand and Korea,and lower volumes into Japan due to weaker demand.The volume of spot LNG cargoes have risen over three times in seven years,from 63 bcm in 2016 to 191 bcm in 2023.Section 1 Executive SummaryFigure 4 Spot LNG Imports 2005 to 2023 Key Findings Wholesa

67、le Gas Price Levels Following the record gas prices in 2022,2023 saw prices fall back somewhat.Gas prices eased back in Europe,Asia Pacific and Asia,with North America also declining sharply.The average World price,while down to$5.70 per MMBTU,was still the second highest average price recorded by t

68、he surveys since 2005.Globally,wholesale prices had generally risen between 2005 and 2014,apart from North America where the shale gas revolution contributed to a reduction in prices by unlocking ample new supply and turning the region from a net gas importer into one of the main exporters.020406080

69、000720092000020202120222023BSCMNorth America EuropeAsiaAsia PacificLatin America FSUAfricaMiddle East2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 201320142015 20162017 2018 20192020 2021 2022 2023North AmericaEuropeAsiaAsia PacificFSUAfricaMiddle East02040601008012

70、00BSCMLatin America12WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 1 Executive SummaryThe regions which have had a lot of regulated pricing Africa,the Middle East and FSU generally experienced rising prices through 2015 before a levelling off,driven by the move away from more subsidised

71、wholesale prices in many countries.This was also the case in the FSU,especially Russia,through 2013,but the decline in US dollar prices since then has largely reflected continued currency weakness,with rouble prices being maintained.Since 2015,prices in Asia,Asia Pacific and Europe had broadly track

72、ed each other,but this link was broken in 2019 as spot prices dropped significantly in a well-supplied market,which benefited the European market much more than Asia and Asia Pacific,where prices barely changed from 2018 levels.These differences widened further in 2020 as spot prices collapsed furth

73、er in the pandemic.However,in 2021,with the rapid post-pandemic demand recovery and growth driving a surge in hub prices,European prices leapt above Asia and Asia Pacific prices,where OPE prices only rose slightly.European average wholesale prices were over$13 per MMBtu,while Asia and Asia Pacific p

74、rices were just over$8 per MMBtu in 2021.These trends were exacerbated further in 2022,with European prices at$32.50,Asia Pacific prices at$14.50 and Asia prices at just over$10 per MMBTU.In 2023,European prices fell back to$15.83 per MMBTU,with Asia Pacific prices at$11.56 and Asia prices at$9.16.N

75、orth America prices fell sharply to$2.51 in 2023 from$6.29 in 2022.There had been a trend of greater global gas price convergence from 2005 through to 2015,but this trend stalled somewhat with a period of lower prices.There was a sharp divergence in 2021 and 2022 especially,with the divergence doubl

76、ing from 2015.In 2023 this divergence fell away somewhat but only back to 2021 levels,which were still well above the convergence levels seen between 2015 and 2020.Figure 5 Wholesale Price Levels 2005 to 2023 by RegionNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaAsia PacificLatin AmericaFSUAfricaMiddle EastWorld35.030.02

77、5.020.015.010.05.00.0$/MMBTU20050.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.02005200720092000020202120222023$/MMBTUNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaAsia PacificLatin AmericaFSUAfricaMiddle EastWorld2007 2009 2010 20232022 202182012 2013 201420172015 201613WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVE

78、Y 2024 EDITIONSection 1Section 2Introduction13WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITION14WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 2 IntroductionThe 2023 IGU Wholesale Gas Price survey is the sixteenth to be undertaken in a series which began at the start of the 2006 to 2009 IGU triennium culmina

79、ting in the World Gas Conference in Buenos Aires.Previous surveys were undertaken for the years 2005,2007,2009,2010,and then annually from 2012.The sixteen surveys have confirmed the significant changes in wholesale price formation mechanisms during a period of key developments and upheaval in the g

80、lobal gas market.In 2023,survey responses covered some 98%of total world consumption.As in last years survey,responses were difficult to get for some countries,especially in the Former Soviet Union,following the Russia war with Ukraine,but estimated data on the remaining markets,where responses were

81、 not received,was researched by the author of the report and/or based on past responses.2.1 BACKGROUND2.2 TYPES OF PRICE FORMATION MECHANISMSIn preparation for the initial 2005 survey,a series of discussions were held at the IGU group meetings,in 2006 and early 2007,on the definition of different ty

82、pes of price formation.It was decided to use for categorisation purposes the wholesale pricing mechanisms,summarised below.Oil Price Escalation(OPE)The wholesale gas price is linked,usually through a base price and an escalation clause,to competing fuels,typically crude oil,gas oil and/or fuel oil.I

83、n some cases,coal prices can be used as can electricity prices.Gas-on-Gas Competition(GOG)Netback from Final Product(NET)Bilateral Monopoly(BIM)PRICE FORMATION MECHANISMSThe wholesale gas price is determined by the interplay of direct gas supply and demand gas-on-gas competition and is traded over a

84、 variety of different periods(daily,monthly,annually or other periods).Trading takes place at physical hubs(e.g.Henry Hub)or notional hubs(e.g.NBP in the UK).There are likely to be developed futures markets(NYMEX or ICE).Not all gas is bought and sold on a short-term fixed price basis and there will

85、 be longer term contracts,but these will use gas price indices to determine the monthly price,for example,rather than competing fuel indices.Also included in this category are spot LNG cargoes,any pricing which is linked to hub or spot prices and also bilateral agreements in markets where there are

86、multiple buyers and sellers.The wholesale gas price is determined by bilateral discussions and agreements between a large seller and a large buyer,with the price being fixed for a period of time typically one year.There may be a written contract in place but often the arrangement is at the Governmen

87、t or state-owned company level.Usually there would be a single dominant buyer or seller on at least one side of the transaction,to distinguish this category from GOG,where there would be multiple buyers and sellers trading bilaterally.The wholesale gas price received by the gas supplier is a functio

88、n of the price received by the buyer for the final product the buyer produces.This may occur where the gas is used as a feedstock in chemical plants,such as ammonia or methanol,and is the major variable cost in producing the product.15WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 2 Introduction No

89、Price(NP)Not Known(NK)No data or evidence.Regulation:Below Cost(RBC)PRICE FORMATION MECHANISMS(Continued)In the discussion of regions,the IGU regional definitions are used and there is a map in the Appendix which shows the regions.A key point to note is that the Asia region is China and the Indian s

90、ub-continent and Asia Pacific is the rest of what is often called Asia.2.3 ANALYSING THE RESULTS2.4 REPORT LAYOUT Section 3 of the report covers the results at the World level of the 2023 survey,and a comparison of the results across all sixteen surveys,for the different categories domestic producti

91、on,pipeline imports,LNG imports,total imports and total consumption.The GOG and OPE categories are also analysed in more detail.Section 4 of the report covers wholesale price levels including a discussion and analysis of the results of the 2023 survey,by region,price formation mechanism and country,

92、and then provides comparisons over all surveys.Section 5 of the report contains an analysis of global gas price convergence over the sixteen surveys.Appendix A of the report looks at the individual regions(IGU definitions)results for the 2023 survey and comparisons across all surveys for the price f

93、ormation mechanisms.Appendix B describes the survey methodology,including the data collection method,the IGU regional definitions,the definitions of the price formation mechanisms and the analytical framework.The results for previous surveys may,in some cases,appear slightly different from what has

94、been published in previous reports.This reflects mostly revisions to IEA data on consumption,production,imports and exports but can also reflect retrospective changes to price formation classification when survey respondents have a better appreciation of the classification definitions as they reflec

95、t upon the results from the surveys overall.Regulation:Cost of Service(RCS)Regulation:Social and Political(RSP)The wholesale gas price is determined,or approved,formally by a regulatory authority,or possibly a Ministry,but the level is set to cover the“cost of service”,including the recovery of inve

96、stment and a reasonable rate of return.The wholesale gas price is set,on an irregular basis,probably by a Ministry,on a political/social basis,in response to the need to cover increasing costs,or possibly as a revenue raising exercise a hybrid between RCS and RBC.The wholesale gas price is knowingly

97、 set below the average cost of producing and transporting the gas often as a form of state subsidy to the population.The wholesale gas produced is either provided free to the popula-tion and industry,possibly as a feedstock for chemical and fertilizer plants,or in refinery processes and enhanced oil

98、 recovery.The gas produced maybe associated with oil and/or liquids and treated as a by-product.16WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 116WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3World Results17WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results3.1 INTRODUCTIONThis sectio

99、n covers the full results and analysis at the World level for wholesale price formation mechanisms and comprises results for the 2023 survey and comparisons and analysis of the results of the surveys from 2005 to 2023 for the consumption allocated to the following categories:Domestic Production Pipe

100、line Imports LNG Imports Total Imports Total ConsumptionThere are also sub-sections which analyse in more detail the GOG and OPE categories for all the surveys and also a more detailed look at the Asian markets and how mechanisms have developed.3.2 DOMESTIC PRODUCTION3.2.1 2023 Survey Results Domest

101、ic ProductionDomestic production in 2023 accounted for some 74%of total world consumption some 3,037 bcm.Figure 6 World Price Formation 2023 Domestic ProductionThe percentage shares of the mechanisms for each region are shown in Figure 7.GOG has the largest share in domestic production at 47%,totall

102、ing some 1,439 bcm,with North America accounting for 1,021 bcm around 71%of the total.The next largest share is in the Former Soviet Union,where the sales of gas in Russia to the large eligible customers by either Gazprom or the independent producers is classified as GOG(see the section on Former So

103、viet Union in the regional analysis for further discussion),accounting for some 234 bcm.The balance is in Europe at 61 bcm principally the UK plus the Netherlands and Romania,Asia at 34 bcm mainly China,Asia Pacific at 32 bcm Australia and New Zealand,and Latin America at 25 bcm mainly Argentina and

104、 Colombia.OPE12%GOG47%BIM2%NET0%RCS12%RSP17%RBC10%NP0%RSP 17%OPE 12%RBC 10%RCS 12%NET 0%BIM 2%NP 0%GOG 47%18WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsOPE has a relatively small share in domestic production at 11.5%,totalling some 350 bcm,with 234 bcm in Asia China,India and Pakis

105、tan mainly,81 bcm in Asia Pacific Thailand,Indonesia,Vietnam,Philippines,Australia and Malaysia,the Middle East at 18 bcm in Kuwait and Israel,13 bcm in Latin America Brazil,and small amounts in Africa,mainly Tunisia,and Europe.The regulated categories RCS,RSP and RBC in total account for 38%of dome

106、stic production some 1,156 bcm,with RCS principally in the Former Soviet Union,Asia and Asia Pacific,RSP principally in the Middle East,Former Soviet Union,Latin America and Asia Pacific and RBC in the Former Soviet Union,Africa,Latin America and the Middle East.A more detailed breakdown of the regu

107、lated categories is contained in the regional analysis sections.Figure 7 Regional Price Formation 2023-Domestic Production3.2.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons Domestic ProductionThe main changes in price formation over the sixteen surveys have been the general rise in domestic GOG from 35%in 2005 to 47%in

108、 2023.The share fell between 2022 and 2023,as a change in the price formula in India,to incorporate linkage to oil prices rather than hub prices.As a result,the OPE category,which is not particularly large in terms of domestic production,increased between 2022 and 2023.Over the period as a whole,GOG

109、 in domestic production has gained share from the three regulated categories which in 2005 totalled some 52%compared to 38%in 2023.Half of this occurred in 2009 and 2010 when the GOG category increased in Russia at the expense of the regulated categories,as the market began to open up to independent

110、s more,and there was more effective competition between the independents and Gazprom for power sector and industrial customers.This was followed by the changes in India in 2015,as regulated pricing was replaced with a formula linked to international,predominantly hub,prices for key sectors.There has

111、 also been an increase in GOG in Latin America as well,principally in 2007 and 2009.0%20%40%60%80%100%OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNPEuropeNorth AmericaLatin AmericaTotalMiddle EastAfricaFSUAsia PacificAsia0%20%60%40%80%100%OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP19WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Resu

112、ltsFigure 8 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023-Domestic ProductionWithin the regulated categories,there have been two main changes,in 2009 when Russia changed from RBC to RCS as prices were finally increased above the cost of production and transportation,and in 2012 when Iran increased prices sharp

113、ly to move from RBC to RSP.RSP increased again in 2014 as prices to the domestic population in Russia switched away from RCS.In 2017,there was also a change in Malaysia,away from RSP to RCS.In 2020 there was a switch away from RCS as it declined in Russia,as the sector was hit by lower demand,and in

114、 Malaysia which moved away from RCS to OPE.In 2021,the RSP category gained share with more rapid demand growth in Middle East,Asia Pacific and FSU.The RSP share fell back in 2022,as domestic production in the Ukraine switched to GOG.In 2023,the shares were broadly unchanged from 2022.3.3 PIPELINE IM

115、PORTS3.3.1 2023 Survey Results Pipeline ImportsPipeline imports in 2023 accounted for some 13.5%of total world consumption some 559 bcm7.Pipeline imports are split between just three categories OPE,GOG and BIM8.The regional breakdown is shown in Figure 10.GOG is 62%of all pipeline imports,totalling

116、348 bcm,with Europe at 214 bcm,North America 117 bcm and the Former Soviet Union 9 bcm(Ukraine imports from Europe).Most of the European gas importing countries,are now dominated by GOG pipeline imports with the top five countries being Germany,Italy,France,Netherlands and UK.7 This figure represent

117、s the total effective net pipeline imports for all countries.Many countries will produce gas and import by pipeline and LNG and also export by pipeline from the“pool”of all sources of supply.Gross pipeline imports in total in 2023 were 647 bcm so effectively 88 bcm was“re-exported”by pipeline a sign

118、ificant amount of this will have been in Europe as flow patterns changed with pipeline imports from Russia continuing to fall.8 There is a very small amount of RCS in Africa reflecting the regulated transportation tariff element of pipeline gas from Nigeria to Ghana.0%25%50%75%100%2005200

119、020202120222023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%25%50%75%100%2005200020202120222023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP20WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsOPE is around 25%of all pipeline imports,totalling some 138 bcm.Asia accounts for some 60 bcm China,with

120、Europe at some 48 bcm Turkey being by far the largest contributor,followed by Italy,16 bcm in Asia Pacific Thailand,Singapore and Malaysia,8 bcm in Latin America mainly Brazil and Argentina,and 5 bcm in the Former Soviet Union Russia.There are also small quantities in countries such as Iran and Tuni

121、sia.BIM has the balance of 13%,totalling some 73 bcm.This is mainly in the Former Soviet Union and the Middle East,with a small amount in Africa.Figure 9 World Price Formation 2023-Pipeline ImportsFigure 10 Regional Price Formation 2023-Pipeline ImportsOPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNPOPE25%GOG62%BIM13%OPE 25

122、%BIM 13%GOG 62%EuropeNorth AmericaLatin AmericaTotalMiddle EastAfricaFSUAsia PacificAsia0%20%60%40%80%100%21WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results3.3.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons Pipeline ImportsThe main changes in the sixteen surveys from 2005 to 2023 are the continued rise in

123、 GOG from 23%in 2005 to 62%in 2023,which has been at the expense of the OPE category.The decline in OPE was partly offset by a switch from BIM to OPE in intra-FSU trade in 2009,and more recently the imports of pipeline gas from Turkmenistan to China,and in 2016,the change in one of the gas contracts

124、 from Russia to Turkey.In 2022,the GOG share recovered,having fallen back in 2021(when the volume of OPE imports in Europe rose sharply in Turkey and Spain,reflecting a faster increase in demand than elsewhere in Europe).The 2022 recovery reflected a partial switch away from OPE in Turkeys contracts

125、 with Gazprom.The total volume of pipeline imports declined sharply as Russianw flows to Europe declined this impacted GOG volumes more but this was offset by the change in Turkey to leave OPE and GOG shares largely the same.In 2023,the GOG share fell back slightly,principally reflecting lower deman

126、d and lower pipe imports from Russia.The rise in GOG at the expense of OPE has been entirely in the European market(at least until 2015 when the Ukraine began importing gas from Europe,rather than Russia utilising reverse flow mechanism),as the Northwest Europe countries began switching to GOG and m

127、ore recently the Central Europe countries and,in 2014 and 2017,Italy.In respect of pipeline imports into Europe,GOG in 2023 has an 82%share compared to 18%for OPE in 2021 the GOG share in Europe was 75%and OPE 25%,with the change in 2022 reflecting the changes in Turkey,stabilising in 2023,with the

128、volume decline hitting both categories.This is in marked contrast to 2005 when it was 91%OPE and only 7%GOG.Figure 11 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023-Pipeline ImportsOPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%25%50%75%100%2005200720092000020202120222023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP2005 2

129、007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202325%50%75%100%0%22WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results3.4 LNG IMPORTS3.4.1 2023 Survey Results LNG ImportsLNG imports in 2023 accounted for some 12%of total world consumption some 501 bcm9.Figure 12 Wor

130、ld Price Formation 2023-LNG ImportsOPE50%GOG50%LNG imports are split 50.3%OPE and 49.7%GOG.The regional breakdown is shown in Figure 13 on Page 23.GOG totals some 249 bcm and can be divided into imports into traded markets in North America and countries such as the UK,Belgium,France and Netherlands,

131、where the domestic market pricing mechanism is GOG(with contracts linked to hub prices),and all other markets which are mainly importing spot and short-term priced LNG cargoes,which is almost every other LNG importing country Japan taking the largest volume but also includes countries like China,Ind

132、ia,Korea,Turkey,Spain,Argentina and Brazil,plus the uncontracted spot LNG into the traded markets noted above.In Europe,84%of LNG imports are now GOG.OPE stands at some 252 bcm mostly in Asia Pacific Japan,Korea and Chinese Taipei,followed by Asia China,India and Pakistan and Europe mainly France,Sp

133、ain,Turkey,Portugal,Italy and Poland.9 As for pipeline imports,the figure represents total effective net LNG imports for all countries.Gross LNG imports(net of re-exported LNG)were some 549 bcm in 2023,with around 48 bcm being regasified and re-exported as pipeline gas.A substantial amount of this w

134、as in Europe as LNG being imported was re-routed to markets which had lost Russian pipeline imports.OPE 50%GOG 50%3.4.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons LNG ImportsThe main changes in the sixteen surveys from 2005 to 2023 are a rise in GOG from 14%in 2005 to 32%in 2012,which was largely at the expense of th

135、e OPE category,before it fell back in 2014 to 25%.In 2015 there was a recovery back to a 33%share,a fall in 2016 to 25%,before rising to 29%in 2017,34%in 2018,41%in 2019,44%in 2020,46%in 2021,47%in 2022 and to just under 50%in 2023.23WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsFigu

136、re 13 Regional Price Formation 2023-LNG Imports0%20%40%60%80%100%OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%20%60%40%80%100%EuropeNorth AmericaLatin AmericaTotalMiddle EastAfricaFSUAsia PacificAsiaOPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNPThe GOG share is comprised of LNG going to the traded markets of North America and,in Europe,the U

137、K,Belgium and Netherlands and any hub-indexed LNG contracts(such as Henry Hub),and spot LNG cargoes to the more“traditional”LNG markets in Asia Pacific,Asia and Europe(including uncontracted LNG into traded markets)and some of the newer markets.There was a significant increase in GOG between 2005 an

138、d 2007,which was principally due to a rise in spot LNG imports in Asia and Asia Pacific and a smaller rise in North American imports.Since 2007,there have been offsetting changes with North American LNG imports which are all GOG declining,European imports,principally to the UK increasing in 2009 and

139、 2010 and relatively stability in Asia and Asia Pacific spot LNG imports.In 2012,as Europes LNG imports declined,these were more than offset in the GOG category by rising spot LNG imports in Asia and Asia Pacific.The decline in 2013 reflected the fall in the share of spot LNG imports and a decline i

140、n LNG imports into the UK,the USA and Canada.The further small decline in 2014 was principally due to lower spot LNG cargoes in Asia and Asia Pacific,with correspondingly higher OPE under long term contracts.The rebound in 2015 was largely due to more spot LNG cargoes in all markets but especially J

141、apan and the new markets,as the fall in spot LNG prices preceded the decline in oil-linked contract prices.In 2016,the decline in GOG was a consequence of LNG trade becoming more contracted,with fewer spot LNG cargoes,which benefitted OPE.In 2017,this was reversed as spot LNG cargoes increased,in pa

142、rt due to the rise in Henry Hub priced US LNG exports.2018 saw a significant change in LNG imports of all the surveys,driven by the continued rise in Henry Hub priced US LNG exports but also by a general rise in spot LNG cargoes10.This change was just as large in 2019,rising to over 40%for the first

143、 time,with the volume of OPE LNG imports declining for the second 10 The definition of Spot LNG in this survey includes spot cargoes and contracts under one year.This makes it distinct from the definition used by GIIGNL in their annual report,for spot and short-term trades,which included contracts u

144、p to four years.LNG being imported into the trading markets of North America and Northwest Europe,is now split between Spot and Traded volumes,to avoid the categorisation of some spot volumes as traded volumes.In addition,in some countries we have also attempted to categorise US cargoes,which are sp

145、ot and those under contracts with Henry Hub linked pricing,which would be included in the“Traded”category.24WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsFigure 14 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023-LNG Imports0%25%50%75%100%20052007200920000202021202

146、22023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230%25%50%75%100%OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNPThe volume of LNG going to the traded markets had been in decline since 2010,with the decline in US LNG imports,reaching a low point in 2018 as UK imports

147、also declined.In contrast,spot LNG cargoes have increased,especially in 2017 and 2018 in Asia Pacific,Asia and parts of Europe plus the newer LNG importing markets.However,in 2019,the volume of LNG going to the traded markets of Northwest Europe increased markedly,as the abundant supply of LNG sough

148、t a home in the only market able to absorb the surplus,declining only slightly in 2020.In 2021,the traded share rose again on the back of contracted US LNG cargoes into Asian markets especially.In 2022 and 2023,spot LNG cargoes increased again as Europe outbid other regions and mopped up increasing

149、uncontracted LNG supply,while in 2023 there was a rebound in China.As Figure 15 shows,the volume of spot LNG cargoes have risen over three times in seven years,from 63 bcm in 2016 to 191 bcm in 2023.year in a row.In 2020,the growth of GOG slowed but still rose to 44%.The rise in GOG was strongest in

150、 Asia and Asia Pacific,rising to 46%(up 5 percentage points)and 27%(up 6 percentage points)respectively.These rises offset a five percentage-point decline in Europe,largely due to a switch to more OPE volumes in Spain in 2020.In 2021,the two-point rise in GOG largely reflected a large increase in sp

151、ot LNG cargoes to Latin America(Brazil mainly),Asia Pacific and China.There was also a switch away from OPE cargoes to GOG in Europe.2022 saw some significant changes as LNG imports increased dramatically into Europe,replacing lost Russian pipeline imports.The GOG share in Europe rose to 76%in 2022

152、from 67%in 2021,with a large rise in spot LNG cargoes.Many of these spot LNG cargoes were diverted from China,where the GOG share fell to 27%in 2022 from 49%in 2021,and Pakistan,where the GOG share fell to 17%in 2022 from 41%in 2021.In 2023,the GOG share rose to 49.7%from 47%in 2022.GOG took all the

153、 growth in LNG imports together with a small switch away from OPE.The change was driven by more spot LNG into Europe and a recovery of spot LNG into China,as gas demand rebounded.In 2017,the volume of OPE in LNG imports was 272 bcm,with GOG at 110 bcm.In 2023,despite the 120 bcm growth in LNG trade

154、since 2017,the volume of OPE had fallen to 252 bcm with GOG rising to 249 bcm.25WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITION-5010 015 020 025 030 0200 5200 7200 9201 0201 2201 3201 4201 5201 6201 7201 8201 9202 0202 1202 2202 3BSCMGO G Spo tGO G TradedSection 3 World ResultsTo further illustrate the grow

155、th of spot LNG,Figure 16 breaks down the data from Figure 15,showing Spot LNG separately and the percentage of Spot LNG in total LNG imports.In 2021,the spot LNG percentage declined,for the first time in 5 years,to 34%in 2021 from 35%in 2020,with the growth in LNG trade being largely accounted for b

156、y contracted LNG both OPE and hub-indexed.In 2022 this was reversed as spot LNG headed to Europe,continuing into 2023,together with the China rebound.Figure 15 GOG LNG Imports 2005 to 2023Figure 16 Global LNG Imports:Price Formation and Share of Spot-2005 to 20230.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0%25%50%

157、75%100%2005200720092000020202120222023%Spot LNG OPEGOG TradedGOG Spot%Spot LNG20055002007 2009BSCM2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023GOG SpotGOG Traded0%25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2

158、020 2021 2022 202310.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0.0%Spot LNGOPEGOG TradedGOG Spot%Spot LNG26WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsFigure 17 GOG Spot LNG Imports 2005 to 2023The growth of spot LNG imports prior to 2010,was predominantly in the Asia Pacific region,with the growth in

159、 Asia starting post-2010.The volume in Europe was relatively low until 2018,with the GOG LNG imports being mainly into the traded Northwest Europe markets.The rise in spot LNG,from around 60 bcm in 2016 to over 150 bcm by 2020,was largely a consequence of the surge in US LNG exports,although not all

160、 the growth in spot LNG is from the USA.Since 2016,there have been increasing volumes of spot LNG into the Asian markets of India and China,especially the latter,and into Japan and South Korea(Asia Pacific).Spot LNG into Europe began growing strongly in 2019,as the rising LNG supplies found a home t

161、here.Spot LNG into China reached a record of almost 50 bcm in 2021,but this more than halved in 2022,with flat China gas demand,and the pull of Europe for spot cargoes where spot volumes of 64 bcm were almost 40%of total LNG imports into Europe.Asia Pacific volumes in 2022 rose slightly with increas

162、es in South Korea,Chinese Taipei and Thailand,more than offsetting declines in Japan and elsewhere.In 2023,the rise in spot LNG imports was in Europe and China as noted above.020406080000720092000020202120222023BSCMNorth America EuropeAsiaAsia P

163、acificLatin America FSUAfricaMiddle East2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 201320142015 20162017 2018 20192020 2021 2022 2023North AmericaEuropeAsiaAsia PacificFSUAfricaMiddle East0204060160180200BSCMLatin America27WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results3.5 TOTAL IMPORTS3.5.1

164、 2023 Survey Results Total ImportsTotal imports in 2023 accounted for some 26%of total world consumption 1,060 bcm.Total imports are the sum of pipeline and LNG imports and comprise the three categories of GOG(57%),OPE(36%)and BIM(7%).Figure 18 World Price Formation 2023-Total ImportsThe table below

165、 shows the regional and category breakdown in volume terms.Table 1 World Price Formation 2023-Total Imports REGION OPE GOG BIM TOT North America 0.0 118.8 0.0 118.8 Europe 70.0 322.2 0.0 392.1 Asia 153.7 49.5 0.0 203.2 Asia Pacific 146.1 71.9 0.0 218.1 Latin America 7.8 16.8 0.0 24.6 FSU 5.3 9.1 33.

166、2 47.7Africa 0.2 4.2 10.0 14.9 Middle East 6.2 4.2 30.1 40.4 Total 389.4 596.6 73.3 1,059.7OPE37%GOG56%BIM7%GOG 56%BIM 7%OPE 37%28WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results3.5.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons Total ImportsTotal imports have only comprised three categories OPE,GOG and B

167、IM in all sixteen surveys from 2005 to 202311.As well as the figure the table below shows the volume breakdown.OPE declined from 63%in 2005 to 59%in 2007 as GOG rose from just over 21%to 28%and then in 2009,OPE gained share rising to 66%as BIM fell from 14%to 6%,with GOG rising to 29%.Since 2009 OPE

168、 has lost share by around 29 percentage points and GOG gained a similar share,in large part due to pipeline imports in Europe,but more recently the rising share of GOG in LNG imports.In volume terms,over the period 2005 to 2023,OPE pricing declined by 22%while GOG grew by 260%.It should be noted tha

169、t total imports fell in volume terms in 2022 and 2023,as a result of the lower Russian pipeline imports into Europe.Over the two years there has been a further small move to GOG in total imports,driven by the GOG rise in LNG.Figure 19 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 Total Imports 11 Apart from th

170、e very small RCS on the Nigeria to Ghana pipeline since 2010.Table 2 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023 Total Imports(bcm)WORLD OPE GOG BIM TOT 2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023497.4 165.8 128.6 791.8494.1 235.5 118.3 847.8530.7 237.2 45.1 813.0562.0 300

171、.0 52.5 914.6526.5 357.8 58.3 942.9518.5 374.6 60.2 953.5463.7 385.9 60.8 910.9434.0 450.9 62.5 947.7478.5 475.8 53.9 1008.2479.1 525.2 55.5 1060.0463.9 550.2 61.6 1076.1442.2 582.2 67.5 1092.4419.4 596.2 72.4 1088.6454.9 654.3 74.6 1184.4398.3 610.7 72.8 1082.3 389.4 596.6 73.3 1059.7OPEGOGBIMNETRC

172、SRSPRBCNP0%25%50%75%100%2005200720092000020202120222023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202329WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results3.6 TOTAL CONSUMPTION3.6.1 2023

173、 Survey Results Total ConsumptionTotal consumption in 2023 was some 4,096 bcm.Figure 20 World Price Formation 2023 Total ConsumptionGOG has the largest share at just under 50%,totalling 2,036 bcm,dominated by North America at 1,140 bcm,followed by Europe at some 383 bcm,the Former Soviet Union at 24

174、3 bcm,and Asia Pacific and Asia at 104 and 83 bcm respectively.In all GOG can now be found in 71 markets,in one form or another,and in all regions.The OPE share at 18%,totals 740 bcm and is predominantly Asia(388 bcm),Asia Pacific(227 bcm)and Europe(71 bcm).OPE is found in 42 markets,now less than h

175、alf the countries in Europe(and mostly at very small percentages),and in all regions except North America.The regulated categories RCS,RSP and RBC account in total for some 28%,around 1,157 bcm:RCS totals some 356 bcm and is in 16 countries,mainly the Former Soviet Union(Russia and Azerbaijan)and As

176、ia(China and Bangladesh),followed by Africa(Egypt and Nigeria),Latin America(Argentina and Chile)and the Middle East(Iran);RSP totals some 505 bcm and is in 22 countries,with the Middle East dominating Iran,Saudi Arabia,UAE and Oman followed by the Former Soviet Union Russia and Latin America Argent

177、ina,Bolivia and Peru with some in Asia Pacific Indonesia;RBC totals some 296 bcm and is in 15 countries,mainly the Former Soviet Union Kazakhstan,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan,Africa Egypt and Algeria the Middle East(Iran and Iraq)and Latin America Venezuela.OPE18%GOG50%BIM4%NET0%RCS9%RSP12%RBC7%NP0%G

178、OG 50%OPE 18%NP 0%NET 0%BIM 4%RCS 9%RSP 12%RBC 7%30WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results The BIM share at 4%totals some 141 bcm and is in 25 countries,predominantly Middle East Qatar,UAE,Israel and Iraq,and the Former Soviet Union in countries importing from Russia.The NET s

179、hare at less than 1%totals some 13 bcm in just a single country Trinidad.The NP share at less than 1%totals some 10 bcm in 7 countries,largely Mexico and Brunei,where it is used in the energy industry in refining processes or enhanced oil recovery.The table below shows the regional and category brea

180、kdown for total world consumption and Figure 21 the regional breakdown.REGION OPE GOG BIM NET RCS RSP RBC NP TOT North America 0.0 1139.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 1,144.0 Europe 70.7 382.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 455.3 Asia 388.0 83.3 4.0 0.0 61.6 0.2 1.4 0.0 538.4 Asia Pacific 227.1 103.9 4.6 0.0 0.

181、1 39.8 0.0 3.5 378.8 Latin America 20.8 41.9 3.7 12.6 15.5 27.7 14.2 0.9 137.2 FSU 5.3 243.2 33.2 0.0 240.9 66.5 89.9 0.0 679.0 Africa 3.8 15.5 15.2 0.0 26.3 6.2 93.1 1.4 161.6 Middle East 23.9 25.5 81.1 0.0 11.9 362.4 97.1 0.2 602.1 Total 739.5 2,035.6 141.7 12.6 356.3 504.6 295.8 10.4 4,096.4Table

182、 3 World Price Formation 2023 Total ConsumptionFigure 21 Regional Price Formation 2023 Total ConsumptionOPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%20%40%60%80%100%OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%20%60%40%80%100%EuropeNorth AmericaLatin AmericaTotalMiddle EastAfricaFSUAsia PacificAsia31WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITION

183、Section 3 World ResultsThe map below shows the main price formation mechanism by market.For each market the highest share is used to categorise the dominant price formation mechanism for that market.OPE and GOG are self-explanatory,regulated covers the 3 categories RCS,RSP and RBC,while Other is pre

184、dominantly BIM the bilateral monopoly category.Figure 22 Wholesale Price Formation Mechanisms MapEurope is now almost all GOG.Turkey now has more GOG than OPE,as a result of the change in pricing in the Gazprom contracts,and more spot LNG.84%of Europe is now GOG,almost all domestic production is,and

185、 84%of pipeline imports and 82%of LNG imports are GOG.OPE is still the largest category in most Asian countries,even those such as Malaysia,Vietnam and the Philippines where it is mostly domestic production.India now has more OPE than GOG,following the change in the price mechanism for most of domes

186、tic production.There is a large area of the world covering the Former Soviet Union,the Middle East and North Africa where prices remain largely regulated.OtherRegulated Oil Price EscalationGas on Gas CompetitionWholesale Gas Prices 202332WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results

187、The figure below shows the changes in the price formation mechanisms over the sixteen surveys from 2005 to 2023.3.6.2 2005 to 2023 Comparisons Total ConsumptionFigure 23 World Price Formation 2005 to 2023-Total ConsumptionThe changes between each survey can be summarised as follows:Between 2005 and

188、2007,GOG increased its share by some 2 percentage points and OPE decreased by 2 percentage points reflecting faster growth in consumption in North America than most other regions,a switch from OPE to GOG in Europe,and to a lesser extent in Asia Pacific and Asia,and a very small move from regulated p

189、ricing to GOG in Russia and Latin America.RSP also increased its share by half a percentage point reflecting more rapid growth in consumption in the RSP countries.Between 2007 and 2009,GOG increased its share by a further 4 percentage points,at a time when total world consumption showed little chang

190、e,mainly because of the change in Russia from RBC to GOG but also because of the continuing switch from OPE to GOG in Europe.OPE actually gained 1 percentage point with the loss in share in Europe being more than offset by a switch from BIM,which lost 2 percentage points overall,to OPE in intra-FSU

191、trade.The other major change was the decline of 14 percentage points in RBC and a similar gain in RCS,mainly in Russia,but RCS also gained at the expenses of RSP,which lost almost 2 percentage points,as Chinas domestic production changed categories as prices increased as a consequence of regulatory

192、change.Between 2009 and 2010,GOG increased its share by another 3 percentage points,with the continuing switch from OPE to GOG in Europe and further move in Russia away from RCS to GOG.OPE declined by just under one percentage point with losses in share in Europe being partly offset by gains in shar

193、es in Asia,as China began importing pipeline gas and more LNG under contract,and Asia Pacific on the back of rapid growth in demand in Korea,Taiwan and Thailand.OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%25%50%75%100%2005200020202120222023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%25%50%75%100%20052001

194、72002WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsWORLD OPE GOG BIM NET RCS RSP RBC NP TOT2005 688.2 896.9 169.4 16.6 22.9 324.0 718.6 23.1 2859.6 2007 670.5 1017.0 160.2 18.9 22.4 361.9 775.1 21.8 3047.8 2009 696.8 1143.0 95.0 18.9 431.6 297.0 345.0 21.5 3048.

195、8 2010 729.0 1342.5 103.7 22.5 419.1 293.3 390.1 22.4 3322.6 2012 670.4 1418.7 125.0 23.9 476.7 480.0 231.1 21.2 3447.0 2013 653.3 1516.6 144.1 19.9 419.2 492.6 227.3 20.9 3493.92014 613.9 1509.9 148.1 19.4 385.8 583.4 223.4 22.1 3505.9 2015 641.8 1608.7 151.8 18.8 359.5 553.4 200.5 20.4 3554.9Table

196、 4 World Price Formation 2023 Total Consumption(bcm and%)2016 725.9 1653.0 144.9 17.2 352.4 540.2 196.5 17.4 3647.5 2017 739.2 1737.9 131.4 13.0 386.2 517.7 215.1 13.9 3754.4 2018 751.7 1867.0 139.2 13.5 409.4 464.8 271.4 13.6 3930.6 2019 745.5 1944.8 144.2 13.8 417.5 453.3 301.9 9.1 4030.2 2020 732

197、.3 1941.0 145.1 11.9 357.8 472.4 292.1 8.8 3961.4 2021 790.3 2040.1 149.3 12.5 356.3 496.2 300.7 9.1 4154.52022 719.5 2063.4 142.7 12.2 356.7 486.1 295.8 9.5 4085.92005 24.1%31.4%5.9%0.6%0.8%11.3%25.1%0.8%100.0%2007 22.0%33.4%5.3%0.6%0.7%11.9%25.4%0.7%100.0%2009 22.9%37.5%3.1%0.6%14.2%9.7%11.3%0.7%1

198、00.0%2010 21.9%40.4%3.1%0.7%12.6%8.8%11.7%0.7%100.0%2012 19.4%41.2%3.6%0.7%13.8%13.9%6.7%0.6%100.0%2013 18.7%43.4%4.1%0.6%12.0%14.1%6.5%0.6%100.0%2014 17.5%43.1%4.2%0.6%11.0%16.6%6.0%0.6%100.0%2015 18.1%45.3%4.3%0.5%10.1%15.6%5.3%0.6%100.0%2016 19.9%45.3%4.0%0.5%9.7%14.8%5.0%0.5%100.0%2017 19.7%46.3

199、%3.5%0.3%10.3%13.8%5.3%0.4%100.0%2018 19.1%47.5%3.5%0.3%10.4%11.8%5.3%0.3%100.0%2019 18.5%48.3%3.6%0.3%10.4%11.2%5.3%0.2%100.0%2020 18.5%49.0%3.7%0.3%9.0%11.9%5.2%0.2%100.0%2021 19.0%49.1%3.6%0.3%8.6%11.9%5.4%0.2%100.0%2022 17.6%50.5%3.5%0.3%8.7%11.9%5.4%0.2%100.0%2023 739.5 2035.6 141.7 12.6 356.3

200、504.6 295.8 10.4 4096.42023 18.1%49.7%3.5%0.3%8.7%12.3%5.4%0.3%100.0%34WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results Between 2010 and 2012,GOG increased its share by almost one percentage point,rising to 41%,with the continuing increase in share in Europe away from OPE,and more spot

201、 LNG imports in Asia andAsiaPacific,beingpartlyoffsetbyadeclineinshareinRussia.OPEdeclinedby2.5percentage points,based on the switch to GOG in Europe(and to BIM in Turkey,as a contract changed)coupledwithdecliningEuropeandemand,onlypartlyofwfsetbyarisingshareinpipelineimportsinChina.RCSincreaseditss

202、hareby1percentagepoint,principallyinRussiabutalsoasdemandgrewsharplyinChina.RSPincreaseditsshareby5percentagepoints,principallyduetothechangeinpricinginIranandrisingdemandinSaudiArabia.RBCdeclinedbyasimilaramount,reflectingtheIranpricingchange.Between 2012 and 2013,GOGincreaseditssharebyover2percent

203、agepoints,gainingfromOPE aspricingmechanismscontinuedtoswitchinEurope,andfromRCSinRussiaastheindependentproducersrecoveredmarketshare.OPEdeclinedbyanotheronepercentagepointreflectingthe changesinEurope,partlyoffsetbyasmallgainintheLNGimportsegmentwithspotLNGtrade declining,andinChinawiththenewpricin

204、gregimeintwoprovinces.RCSdeclinedby1.5percentagepoints,largelyreflectingthechangeinRussiatowardsGOGandinChinatoOPE.TheBIMcategoryregainedalmosthalfapercentagepointinsharereflectingdomesticproductiongrowthinQatar.Between 2013 and 2014,the GOG share declined marginally as the continued switch away fro

205、m OPEinEuropeandmorerapidconsumptiongrowthinNorthAmericawasoffsetbyadeclineintheshareofGOGinRussiatowardsregulatedpricing,andfewerspotLNGcargoes.OPEwasdownjustunder1percentagepointreflectingthechangesinEurope,partlyoffsetbyanincreaseinChina.RCSwasdownby1percentagepointlargelyasaresultoftheswitchtoRS

206、PinRussiaandtheRSPcategorywasupby2.5percentagepoints,reflectingtheRussiaswitchbutalsoachangeinNigeriaaswell,awayfromRBC,coupledwithmorerapidconsumptiongrowthinRSPcountries.RBCwasunchanged,withthedeclineinNigeria,beingoffsetbyrisingconsumptiononKazakhstan,TurkmenistanandUzbekistan.Between 2014 and 20

207、15,theGOGshareincreasedbyover2percentagepointsreflectingrising gas consumption in North America and Europe,together with the continuing move away from OPE inEurope,thechangeinpricinginIndiaandmorespotLNG,partlyoffsetbyadeclineinAustralia as OPE netback contracts began to be introduced,and the switch

208、 in Ukraine to imports of hub-pricedgasfromEurope.OPEsshareincreasedbyjustoverhalfapercentagepoint,withthe declineinEuropeandlowershareofLNGimportsbeingmorethanoffsetbythechangeinthe domesticpricingmechanisminChina.TheRCSsharedeclinedbyonepercentagepointreflectingthechangesinChina,partlyoffsetbymove

209、stoRCSinEgyptandNigeria.RSPwasdownbyone percentagepoint,principallyreflectingthechangesinpricinginIndiaandNigeria.RBCwas lowerbyalmost1percentagepoint,reflectingmovesawayinBangladeshandpartiallyinEgypt.Between 2015 and 2016,the GOG share rose by marginally,with an increase in the share in Europe and

210、theFormerSovietUnion,togetherwithgrowingconsumptioninNorthAmerica,beingpartlyoffsetbydeclinesinAsiaandAsiaPacific,reflectingfewerpurespotLNGcargoes.TheOPEshareincreasedbyjustunder2percentagepoints,reflectingasmallriseinEuropeattheexpenseofBIM(inTurkey),butprincipallyinAsiaandAsiaPacific,asthesharein

211、LNGimportsincreased,but alsoreflectingariseindomesticproductioninChina,asthefullyeareffectofthechangein city-gatepricingcamethrough,andchangeddomesticproductionpricinginKuwait.TheRCSsharedeclinedbyhalfapercentagepoint,principallyreflectingthechangesinChina,partlyoffsetbya35WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY

212、 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results rise in Iran in gas as a feedstock to petrochemicals,and faster consumption growth in some countries with RCS pricing.The RSP share was down by just under one percentage point as a result of declines in the Middle East Iran and Kuwait and the FSU,principally in R

213、ussia with switching to GOG and RCS.The RBC share was down very slightly on slower consumption growth.Between 2016 and 2017,the GOG share increased by 1 percentage point as a result of a continuing rise in Europe,at the expense of OPE,the rise in Asia as China introduced market pricing for direct sa

214、les from upstream producers to large users,the general recovery in spot LNG cargoes.The OPE share was almost unchanged,with the losses to GOG being partly offset by an increase in Asia Pacific,mainly in Malaysia and Indonesia.The BIM share was down almost half a percentage point reflecting the switc

215、h in Indonesia to OPE.The RCS share increased by over half a percentage point,largely as a result of the change in Malaysia away from RSP,which was down almost one percentage point.RBC was broadly unchanged.Between 2017 and 2018,the GOG share rose by one percentage point largely reflecting the incre

216、asing share of spot LNG cargoes in LNG imports and rapidly growing US consumption,more than offsetting the declining share in pipeline imports,as a result of reduced European pipeline imports and increased China pipeline imports.OPE share declined by half a percentage point,with the loss in LNG impo

217、rts being partly offset by gains in pipeline imports and domestic production in China.RCS was largely unchanged but RSP declined by a quarter of a percentage point,reflecting slower consumption growth in countries with RSP and a switch away in Argentina to RCS.In turn RCS lost share in China to OPE.

218、Between 2018 and 2019,the GOG share rose by one percentage point,at the expense of OPE,largely as a result of rising GOG in LNG imports both traded markets and spot LNG cargoes and a more rapid decline in OPE pipeline imports in Europe.RCS was down by half a percentage point,while RSP declined by a

219、quarter of a percentage point,a decline in Russia and Ukraine.RBC rose marginally as Turkmenistan eliminated free gas but still maintained subsidies.Between 2019 and 2020,the GOG share rose by another one percentage point,largely driven by rising spot LNG imports,at the expense of OPE,together with

220、rising shares in domestic production in Russia and Israel.OPE gained slightly in domestic production in China and Malaysia.RCS declined by one percentage point reflecting the changes in Malaysia.RSP gained slightly in Indonesia.Between 2020 and 2021,the GOG share was down marginally with a rising sh

221、are in LNG(traded markets and hub-indexed contracts)and a decline in pipeline imports,largely reflecting rapid demand growth in Turkey and a switch more pipe imports into Spain,with lower LNG imports,plus more pipeline gas into China from Central Asia and Russia.As a consequence,the OPE share rose s

222、lightly.The RSP share also rose reflecting increasing demand growth in Indonesia and the Middle East.In the dramatically changed global market of 2022,the GOG share rose again by 1.5 percentage points,mostly at the expense of the OPE share,rising to over 50%of global gas consumption for the first ti

223、me.There was a significant rise in the GOG share in Europe as spot LNG imports increased sharply and as some of Turkeys contracted pipeline imports from Russia switched to hub pricing away from oil indexation.In addition,the pricing of pipe imports into Tunisia changed to GOG from OPE.Spot LNG impor

224、ts also rose in South Korea and Chinese Taipei,and rising 36WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results consumption in Russia added to GOG.Taken together,these more than offset the decline in GOG in Asia as China and Pakistan reduced spot LNG imports.The OPE share at 17.5%is now e

225、qual to its lowest ever level previously reached in 2014,although the OPE volume increased by 100 bcm.Overall,through the 2005 to 2023 period,OPE has declined by 6 percentage points,GOG has risen by 18.5 percentage points,BIM has declined by 2.5 percentage points,RCS has risen by 8 percentage points

226、,RSP risen by 1 percentage point and RBC declined by 18 percentage points.In terms of absolute volumes,OPE increased by some 45 bcm,and GOG by 1,145 bcm a 130%increase.BIM and NET were also down slightly.The regulated categories in total saw their volume increase by some 90 bcm.Global gas consumptio

227、n in 2005 was some 2,860 bcm and had risen to 4,096 bcm by 2023,an increase of some 1,136 bcm,slightly less than the rise in the volume of GOG over the same period.Effectively,all the rise in global gas consumption between 2005 and 2022,has been matched by rising GOG consumption,although that hides

228、the fact that consumption has risen strongly in many countries with heavily regulated markets,such as in the Middle East,and there have been significant changes towards GOG in other markets,notably in Europe,and in LNG markets in Asia and Asia Pacific.While there have been a number of significant ch

229、anges over the period of the surveys between the 8 categories,as described above,the changes have been almost wholly within larger groupings of categories,until very recently.The categories of OPE,GOG,BIM and NET can be broadly described as“market”pricing,while the categories of RCS,RSP,RBC and NP c

230、an be broadly described as“regulated”pricing.The figure below compares the changes in the“market”and“regulated”categories over the sixteen surveys.Figure 24 Market and Regulated Pricing 2005 to 2023 The gas market in 2023 eased a little and the GOG share fell back slightly(by 0.5%)to just below 50%.

231、This largely reflected the impact at the global level of a continued decline in gas demand in Europe(which is predominantly GOG)and the change in India domestic pricing to using oil price linkage from 2023 Q2 away from linkages to hubs in North America and Europe.The rise in spot LNG imports into Eu

232、rope and China offset some of this fall.As a consequence of the change in India,the OPE share recovered slightly from its historic low in 2022.MarketRegulated0%20%40%60%80%2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023MarketRegulated0%20%40%60%80%20052000202021202220233

233、7WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World Results The move away from regulated pricing in the Russian market to GOG as the independent producers began to compete with each other and Gazprom to sell gas to the power sector and large industrials this was partly reversed in 2014 with more

234、“regulated”pricing.A similar move in Argentina,to GOG,as the eligible market opened up,and more recently in Nigeria.The changes,since 2013,in China where there was initially a move to OPE in 2 provinces away from RCS which in 2014 became nationwide for incremental production over 2012 levels and the

235、n in 2015 for all sectors except residential and fertilizers some of this OPE in 2017 switched to GOG and halfway through 2018 the move to OPE for residential city-gate pricing.In 2020,Malaysia moved away from RCS to OPE in its domestic pricing.The pricing reforms in India,which began in late 2014,m

236、oving pricing away from RSP to GOG;and The rise in new LNG importers,importing at OPE and/or GOG,to enhance or replace domestic production which was regulated.3.7 ANALYSIS OF GAS-ON-GAS COMPETITION AND OIL PRICE ESCALATION3.7.1 Gas-on-Gas CompetitionThe rise in GOG from 31%of total world consumption

237、 in 2005 to just under 50%in 2023 and in which regions,has been discussed in some detail above.It has been noted earlier that GOG is not one homogeneous category and can be considered to comprise of the following pricing mechanisms:Trading what is generally thought of as GOG where the price is deter

238、mined by the interplay of supply and demand and is traded over a variety of different periods(daily,monthly,annually or other periods).Trading takes place at physical hubs(e.g.Henry Hub)or notional hubs(e.g.NBP in the UK).This will also include longer term contracts into markets where there is littl

239、e or no trading at hubs,but where the price is linked to hub prices in markets where there is liquid trading.Bilateral there is no trading market or hub but there are multiple buyers and sellers distinguishing this from BIM providing the competitive element.This is largely in parts of Australia,Russ

240、ia,Argentina and now China.In many of these markets,the GOG pricing will be influenced by significant regulated segments.Spot LNG spot LNG cargoes where the price of the cargoes reflects the current supply-demand situation.The total of“market”pricing rose from 62%in 2005 to 71.5%in 2023,mirrored by

241、a decline in“regulated”pricing,from 38%in 2005 to 28.5%in 2023.Changes in percentages between surveys can arise because of actual changes in price formation mechanism or because of more rapid growth in consumption in countries with a specific type of price formation mechanism.The switch to“market”pr

242、icing is down to the following:38WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsThe figure below breaks down the GOG percentages over the sixteen surveys into these 3 categories.Figure 25 Changes in GOG in Total Consumption by Type 2005 to 202312The Trading category is by far the larg

243、est dominated by North America and increasingly Europe and has increased from 30%of total world consumption in 2005 to 37%in 2023 a rise of 7 percentage points.The Bilateral category has risen from 1.1%to 7.8%-a rise of 6.7 percentage points,while the Spot LNG category has risen from 0.2%to 4.7%-a r

244、ise of 4.5 percentage points.The total rise in GOG between 2005 and 2023 has been 18.5 percentage points.Over the period as a whole,one-third of the rise in GOG has come from the Bilateral category and is largely in Russia together with much smaller changes,in volume terms,in Argentina and,latterly,

245、Australia,Israel,Nigeria and China.The rise in the Trading category is almost entirely due to changes in the European market,both in terms of increased trading volumes and contract renegotiations.This was supplemented at the end of 2014 indexation to hub prices in India,away from RSP for domestic pr

246、oduction,in 2019 by rising LNG imports into Europe,and in 2021 by increased hub-indexed LNG contracts.The changes in the Spot LNG category have been variable over time reaching a peak of 2.2%in 2012 before falling back in 2013 and 2014 as the number of spot LNG cargoes declined.The share then reboun

247、ded in 2015,as spot LNG cargoes recovered,declined again in 2016 as LNG trade became more contracted,followed by sharp rebounds in the four years to 2020,before a slight fall in 2021,but then a rise again in 2022 as spot LNG to Europe increased sharply.In 2023 the Trading share fell back as a result

248、 of the move to OPE in India domestic pricing and weakening European demand,while the spot LNG share grew.3.7.2 Change in GOG and OPE by Consumption CategoryIn terms of the three different categories of consumption domestic production,pipeline imports and LNG imports,the figure below shows the chang

249、es in GOG over the sixteen surveys.12 In order to emphasise changes the vertical axis starts at 25%.25%30%35%40%45%50%55%2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023TradingSpot LNGBilateral25%40%45%50%2005200020202%35%30%TradingSpot LNGBilateral39WHOLESALE

250、GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsFigure 26 Changes in GOG by Consumption Category 2005 to 2023Apart from the rise in domestic production share between 2007 and 2010,as a result of the changes in Russia and,to a lesser extent,in Europe,the share of GOG has been relatively stable,un

251、til the slight fall in 2023 reflecting the pricing change in India.Similarly,the share in LNG imports did not change much between 2007 and 2016,fluctuating largely in response to changes in spot LNG cargoes,until we saw the sharp increases in the last seven years.The big rise has been in pipeline im

252、ports,almost all in Europe,although that has levelled off since 2017,and even fell back a little in 2023,with the rise in LNG imports since 2017 driving the overall rise in GOG.Figure 27 Changes in OPE by Consumption Category 2005 to 20230.00%25.00%50.00%75.00%100.00%200520072009200142015

253、2000222023Domestic ProductionPipe ImportsLNG Imports0%25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230.00%25.00%50.00%75.00%100.00%2005200720092000020202120222023Domestic ProductionPipe ImportsLNG Imp

254、orts0%25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Domestic ProductionPipe ImportsLNG ImportsDomestic ProductionPipe ImportsLNG Imports40WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsThe similar chart for changes in OPE,is the mirror ima

255、ge of the GOG chart for LNG imports,and for pipeline imports.For domestic production,the share declined continuously from 2005 to 2013,principally down to the changes in Europe,before recovering by some 3.5 percentage points through to 2016,principally reflecting the pricing changes in China and,to

256、a lesser extent in Australia and Vietnam.The domestic production OPE share rose slightly in 2023,reflecting the change in India.OPE pipeline imports picked up in 2021,reflecting the rapid demand growth in Turkey and Spain and increased pipe imports into China from Central Asia and Russia,but fell ba

257、ck again in 2022,as Turkey switched away from OPE in its Russian gas contracts.As noted earlier,the share of OPE had fallen to 18.1%of total world consumption in 2023,from 24.1%in 2005.In volume terms,however,there was an increase to 740 bcm from 688 bcm in 2005.Total world consumption grew by 43%ov

258、er the same period some 1,235 bcm.Out of the 740 bcm in 2023,some 350 bcm was domestic production,138 bcm was pipeline imports and 252 bcm LNG imports.Domestic production has grown in volume terms since 2005,but the share in 2023 was only 2 percentage points above the share in 2005 see figure 27 abo

259、ve.Pipeline imports have fallen sharply in volume terms,as a result of the shift away from OPE in Europe,while LNG imports grew in volume terms,with the share declining as already discussed.48%of OPE in 2023 was in domestic production,and,as shown in the figure below,of this 49%is in China.It is pre

260、dominently in the Asia and Asia Pacific regions.The categorisation,in some countries,as OPE is not necessarily as clear as the familiar oil indexation in both pipeline imports and LNG imports,and there is often an overlay of regulation involved.China is a good example of this,where city-gate prices

261、from domestic production have been very broadly linked to liquid fuels prices for a number of years,but the decision to change these prices has been overseen by the state.If China continues with pricing reforms,then this element of domestic production could change to a different category possibly GO

262、G but again this would be a very different GOG from that seen in the North American and European trading markets13.3.7.3 Where are the main OPE areas?Figure 28 OPE Domestic Production 13 As for Russia where the large GOG category is very different from European GOG.China49%Malaysia12%Pakistan10%Indi

263、a7%Thailand6%Kuwait5%Brazil4%Vietnam2%Australia2%Other3%41WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 3 World ResultsPipeline imports are the more traditional type of oil indexation,seen initially in Europe but now mostly replaced there by GOG.China is the largest OPE pipe importer,with imports f

264、rom Central Asia,Myanmar and,since the end of 2019,from Russia.In Asia Pacific,Thailand and Singapore imports are also OPE,while in Europe,Turkey,Italy and Spain are the largest OPE importers,with smaller volumes in Germany,while Other Europe is largely Southeast Europe,including Greece,and the Balt

265、ic countries.While the share of OPE in LNG imports has fallen significantly since 2016,as GOG has risen,it still represents just over 50%of LNG imports.Out of the 252 bcm in 2023,some 194 bcm(over 75%)was in the Big 5 Asian markets Japan,China,South Korea,Chinese Taipei and India.The rest of the Asi

266、a and Asia Pacific regions added an additional 33 bcm(or some 14%)half from Pakistan and Thailand.Spain,France,Italy and Turkey in Europe accounted for some 16 bcm.Kuwait,Portugal,Poland and Greece also have OPE LNG imports.Figure 29 OPE Pipeline ImportsFigure 30 OPE LNG ImportsChina40%Turkey13%Ital

267、y11%Thailand5%Singapore5%RussianFederation4%Brazil4%China Hong Kong4%Spain3%Malaysia2%Other Europe7%Other2%China26%Japan23%South Korea13%ChineseTaipei9%India6%Pakistan4%Thailand3%Spain2%Kuwait2%Singapore2%Other AS and AP5%Other Europe5%42WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITION3.8 FOCUS ON ASIAThe IG

268、U regional definitions,divide the overall Asia region into Asia,which is defined as China and the Indian sub-continent and Asia Pacific which covers the remaining countries.There is a wide range of different markets in the wider region and there have been some significant changes since the first 200

269、5 survey.In 2005,total world consumption of natural gas was some 2,860 bcm and the total for Asia and Asia Pacific was some 412 bcm or 14%of the total.In 2023,total world consumption was some 4,096 bcm and the Asia and Asia Pacific total was some 917 bcm or 22%of the total and contributing some 40%o

270、f the volume growth for the world.This focus on Asia breaks the wider region into smaller sub-regions(as is done for Europe in Appendix A)and these are China(including Hong Kong),South Asia(India,Pakistan and Bangladesh),Japan,Korea and Chinese Taipei(as the LNG import dependent markets),the ASEAN14

271、 grouping and Oceania(Australia,New Zealand and PNG).Back in 2005,China relied totally on domestic production to supply consumption and the prices were all heavily regulated by the government and classified as RSP.China exported small volumes to Hong Kong at a fixed price(BIM)in 2005 before switchin

272、g to an OPE contract.China began importing both pipeline gas(from Central Asia,initially Turkmenistan)and LNG in 2007,with volumes growing rapidly to meet rising gas demand,adding pipeline imports from Uzbekistan,Kazakhstan,Myanmar and in 2019 from the Russia Far East.All the pipeline imports were,a

273、nd still are OPE,while the LNG contracts were all OPE,with a very small volume of spot LNG(GOG).Section 3 World Results 14 Myanmar,Brunei,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand and Vietnam.Figure 31 China Price Formation 2005 to 2023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP0%25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 201

274、0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%43WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONThe exposure to more market-related import prices prompted changes in the regula

275、tion of domestic production,with a more formal RCS regime being introduced in 2009.In the mid-2010s,China began to introduce more market-related pricing into the sales of domestic gas,initially on an OPE basis and then GOG into the larger consuming sectors.By the 2020s,the RCS sectors were just for

276、residential and fertilizers.While pipeline imports have continued to be all OPE,the composition of LNG imports has been changing,with increasing volumes of spot LNG cargoes and,since 2017,long term contracts of US LNG priced on a Henry Hub basis.Further pricing reforms in China are expected,possibly

277、 introducing a greater degree of competition.For South Asia,in 2005 the sub-region was dominated by domestic production,with a large share of OPE(Pakistan and part of India production),RSP(India)and RBC(Bangladesh).India also imported a small volume of LNG under a fixed price(BIM)contract.Pricing in

278、 Bangladesh moved away from RBC to RCS over the 2010s as prices increased to become more economic(other than wholesale prices for the smaller household consumers).Pakistan domestic production has remained OPE but in India,in 2015,much of domestic production pricing was linked to international spot p

279、rices in North America and Europe,plus also the Russian wholesale price.However,in 2023 Q2,the Indian regulator changed this formula to oil price linkage(OPE),since the sharp rise in 2022 in spot prices in North America and Europe had led to a large rise in the Indian domestic production price.Rathe

280、r ironically,the old spot price formula would now be delivering lower prices than the new OPE formula.All three countries are now importing LNG with a mixture of OPE under long term contracts and GOG(US LNG imports and spot cargoes).In 2023,LNG imports were split 62%OPE and 38%GOG,but the shares hav

281、e been volatile over time depending on the need for LNG in the sub-region.More rapid LNG volume growth has generally resulted in a higher GOG share and vice-versa.Figure 32 South Asia Price Formation 2005 to 2023Section 3 World ResultsOPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013

282、 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%0%25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP44WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONJapan,Korea and Chinese Taipei,as almost total dependent on LNG imports,have seen the lea

283、st change in price formation mechanisms since 2005,with a gradual increase in GOG,especially since 2016 as US LNG entered the market and spot cargoes grew.In 2023,the GOG share of LNG imports was 34%,having risen from a low of 13%in 2016.The small BIM share is Japan domestic production.The ASEAN sub

284、-region has been more reliant on domestic production and also trade between the countries.There has consistently been a core level of OPE in domestic production,mainly in Thailand,Myanmar and Philippines initially followed by changes in the 2010s in Malaysia,Vietnam and,for a time,in Indonesia,away

285、from regulated pricing principally RSP.Figure 33 Japan,Korea and Chinese Taipei Price Formation 2005 to 2023Figure 34 ASEAN Price Formation 2005 to 2023Section 3 World ResultsOPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%0%25%50

286、%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP2009OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP25%50%75%100%2005 20072010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%0%25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

287、 2020 2021 2022 2023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP45WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONBIM through 2016 was in Indonesia before a switch to OPE,which then changed to RSP in 2020.The pipeline imports have all been OPE since 2005 and cover Thailands imports from Myanmar,Singapores imports from Malaysia a

288、nd Indonesia and Malaysia imports from Indonesia.LNG imports have been predominantly OPE,after 2016,with a high level of long-term contracts,although pre-2016 volumes were very low and largely spot cargoes to Thailand.LNG demand has risen strongly in the sub-region since 2018,growing by some 16.5 bc

289、m or 130%.GOG LNG imports have grown more in volume terms since 2018,with the GOG share at 43%in 2023.Figure 35 Oceania Price Formation 2005 to 2023Oceania is essentially Australia and New Zealand and was one of the early areas of the world to fully adopt deregulation and GOG pricing.A small element

290、 of OPE came in in 2015 as the supply of gas from domestic production was from fields and basins which were also exporting LNG and netback pricing from the realised LNG price(which was OPE)was introduced.OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNP25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

291、2020 2021 2022 2023 0%0%25%50%75%100%2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBCNPSection 3 World Results46WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 1Section 146WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 4Wholesale Price Levels47WHOLE

292、SALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 4 Wholesale Price Levels4.1 INTRODUCTIONThis section covers the full results and analysis on wholesale price levels at the overall World level and comprises:The results for the 2023 survey;and Comparisons across the sixteen surveys.In considering wholesale p

293、rice levels across regions,markets,or price formation mechanisms,it should be noted that the wholesale price can cover different points in the gas chain wellhead price,border price,hub price,city-gate price so the comparison of price levels is not always“like for like”.Comparisons,therefore,should b

294、e treated with utmost caution and taken only as a broad indication.4.2.1 Price Levels by Price Formation Mechanism4.2 2023 SURVEY RESULTSThe figure below shows a snapshot of wholesale prices for 2023 by price formation mechanism15.Figure 36 Wholesale Prices in 2023 by Price Formation MechanismThe hi

295、ghest prices in 2023 were in the OPE category at$10.44 per MMBTU,despite the still relatively high spot prices around the world.Prices in the GOG category averaged$6.01 per MMBTU.However,the price level in the GOG category is heavily influenced by the relatively low prices in North America and Russi

296、a.Spot prices did fall back from the very high 2022 levels,following the start of the Russia war with Ukraine.If the lower priced markets of North America and Russia were excluded then the balance of GOG prices would be,on average,$13.31,higher than the OPE levels.In the regulated categories,it can

297、be seen that the prices in the RCS category are higher than those in RSP and,in turn,RBC which were the lowest at$1.71 per MMBTU in 2022.15 It should be noted that on an individual country basis no break down has been made of the price level for different price formation mechanisms within the countr

298、y,so the same price level is applied to all mechanisms.This simplifying assumption is not considered to have any material influence on the conclusions.OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBC0.02.04.06.08.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.0OPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBC$/MMBTU10.0$/MMBTU12.048WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSectio

299、n 4 Wholesale Price Levels4.2.2 Price Levels by Region and CountryFigure 37 Wholesale Prices in 2023 by RegionWholesale prices can obviously vary significantly from year to year.In 2023,prices in Europe were by far the highest,reflecting the still high average spot prices,at$15.83 per MMBTU.Asia Pac

300、ific had prices averaging$11.56 and Asia had average prices at$9.16.OPE is the primary pricing mechanism in both regions,so were much less impacted by spot prices.Prices in North America in 2023 were below the average for Latin America and even Africa.Prices in the Former Soviet Union,in$terms,and t

301、he Middle East,were the lowest.These conclusions are further reinforced when wholesale prices are viewed at the country level.The figure on the following page includes all markets with consumption greater than 5 bcm in 2023.The figure below shows a snapshot of wholesale prices for 2023 by IGU region

302、.Middle EastAfricaNorth AmericaLatin AmericaAsiaEuropeFSUAsia Pacific5.00.0$/MMBTU10.015.020.049WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 4 Wholesale Price LevelsFigure 38 Wholesale Prices in 2023 by MarketThe highest wholesale prices in 2023,as in 2021 and 2022,were found in Europe and not the

303、 main LNG importing markets in Asia Pacific,although prices have narrowed in 2023.The top 5 highest prices were in Europe,with some still above$20 per MMBtu.Some of the key LNG importing markets Japan,South Korea,Chinese Taipei and Singapore are mixed in with European countries,as prices converged.P

304、rices in Spain were somewhat lower than other European countries,reflecting the higher share of OPE prices.Prices fell to much lower levels in the USA,comparable to some FSU and Middle East countries.Prices in Russia have continued to be well below other countries,which,a few years previously,they h

305、ad been above,as a consequence of the large rouble depreciations.At the bottom of the chart are generally countries where wholesale prices were subject to some form of regulation and often below the cost of production and transportation Turkmenistan,Algeria and Venezuela.0.05.010.015.020.025.0$/MMBT

306、UPolandGermanyCzech RepublicAustriaSouth KoreaHungaryNetherlandsBelgiumUnited KingdomRomaniaJapanUkraineSingaporeItalyChinese TaipeiIrelandSpainTurkeyTunisiaMalaysiaChina Hong KongBrazilThailandIndiaChinaChileAustraliaIndonesiaColombiaBangladeshPakistanVietnamKuwaitArgentinaIraqIsraelBahrainOmanEgyp

307、tTrinidadBelarusNigeriaMexicoUnited Arab EmiratesPeruAzerbaijanUSAIranUzbekistanCanadaKazakhstanSaudi ArabiaQatarRussian FederationAlgeriaTurkmenistanLibyaVenezuelaFrance5.00.0$/MMBTU10.015.020.025.050WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 4 Wholesale Price Levels4.3.1 Changes in Wholesale P

308、rices by Price Formation Mechanisms4.3 COMPARISONS 2005 TO 2023The figure below compares changes in wholesale price levels across the sixteen surveys by price formation mechanisms.Figure 39 Wholesale Prices Levels 2005 to 2023 by Price Formation MechanismIn 2005 the highest prices by price formation

309、 mechanism were for GOG at$8.10 per MMBTU,but these declined between 2005 and 2009,before levelling off at around$4.50,followed by small rise to the$5.30 range in 2013 and 2014.This was followed by sharp declines in 2015 and 2016 reaching$3.04.There was a rise in 2017 to$3.78,with prices rising in a

310、ll markets,and in 2018 to$4.36,largely driven by rising European hub prices.GOG prices fell sharply in 2019 as spot prices collapsed to their lowest levels since 2016,followed by another Covid-induced fall-m in 2020 to$2.80 the lowest level ever recorded.In contrast OPE prices rose significantly fro

311、m$5.47 per MMBTU in 2005 to just under$11.00 in 2013,as oil prices increased,remaining around that level through 2014,before declining to around$8.00 in 2015 and$6.00 in 2016,following the oil price fall.OPE prices also rose back in 2017 to$6.58,as oil prices recovered,and to$7.59 in 2018,before dec

312、lining slightly in 2019 to$7.40,and further to$6.12 in 2020.There were also general increases in prices over time in the regulated price categories as well,through to 2014,although in 2015 and 2016 this trend was reversed,principally due to sharp dollar declines in the FSU as currencies depreciated.

313、These again were reversed in 2017 as some predominantly regulated countries increased prices.Regulated prices levelled off in 2018 and 2019,with weak FSU prices being offset by stronger prices elsewhere,but declined slightly again in 2020.In 2021,prices in the OPE and GOG categories both rose,reflec

314、ting higher oil prices and much higher spot prices in the main GOG markets.In 2022,prices rose sharply again as spot prices soared.In 2023,the OPE and GOG prices fell back again,but remained at historically higher levels.As noted above,the GOG price,excluding North America and Russia,was well above

315、the OPE price.0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.02005200720092000020202120222023$/MMBTUOPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBC8.010.014.016.02005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.012.06.04.02.0$/MMBTUOPEGOGBIMNETRCSRSPRBC51WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SU

316、RVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 4 Wholesale Price Levels4.3.2 Changes in Wholesale Prices by RegionThe figure below compares changes in wholesale price levels across the sixteen surveys by region.Figure 40 Wholesale Price Levels 2005 to 2023 by RegionAt the world level,on average,wholesale prices have rise

317、n between 2005 and 2013 from around$4.47 per MMBTU to$5.57.This rise was across all regions apart from North America,where the dramatic increase in shale gas supply has led to a sharp drop in prices with a small rebound in 2013.The rise in prices in Europe and Asia Pacific has been well documented a

318、nd studied,but prices have also risen in Asia,largely due to increases in prices in China,both as more gas was imported and regulated domestic prices increased,and in India for similar reasons.In 2014,though,prices in Europe began to decline as the market weakened and,in the FSU especially,as the ro

319、uble depreciated.This accelerated in 2015,and prices also fell back in North America and Asia Pacific on the back of weak demand,abundant supply and the impact of the sharp fall in oil prices.However,some regions did not see the sharp 2014 and 2015 fall in prices.These were Asia,as pricing reforms a

320、nd inertia increased and kept prices up in China and India,the Middle East as regulated prices were increased in Bahrain,Oman and Iran,with other prices staying stable and Africa where prices increased in Egypt,Nigeria and Algeria.In 2016,prices declined further in all regions apart from Africa and

321、the Middle East,with average world wholesale price falling to$3.35 per MMBTU,the lowest level in all surveys,up until then.North AmericaEuropeAsiaAsia PacificLatin AmericaFSUAfricaMiddle EastWorld35.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.0$/MMBTU0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.0200520072009200

322、0020202120222023$/MMBTUNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaAsia PacificLatin AmericaFSUAfricaMiddle EastWorld2005 2007 2009 2010 20232022 202182012 2013 201420172015 201652WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 4 Wholesale Price LevelsIn 2017,prices generally rose again in all regio

323、ns as the global supply demand situation tightened and oil prices rose.Price also increased,however,in the more regulated regions of the Former Soviet Union,Africa and the Middle East.In 2018,prices increased in all regions,except for the Former Soviet Union,where Russian prices fell in$terms.The av

324、erage world wholesale price in 2018 was$4.38 per MMBTU the highest average price since 2014.These rises were reversed in 2019,the average price falling to$3.88 per MMBTU,as global supply raced ahead.Prices across the world declined again in 2020,with the average price reaching its lowest ever level

325、at$3.24.Since 2015,prices in Asia,Asia Pacific and Europe broadly tracked each other,but this link was broken in 2019 as spot prices collapsed which impacted the European market much more than Asia and Asia Pacific where prices barely changed from 2018 levels.These differences widened further in 202

326、0 as spot prices collapsed again.European prices are now much closer to the World average than they have ever been,breaking decisively from Asia and Asia Pacific prices.2021 saw a very sharp increase in average European prices to some$13.38 per MMBTU from$3.75 in 2020.This took European prices above

327、 Asia Pacific prices for the first time since 2013.Average world wholesale prices rose to$5.54 per MMBTU from$3.24 in 2020,just below the highest ever global average of$5.58 in 2013.Prices in North America still remained relatively low but doubled in 2021,reaching their highest level since 2014.2022

328、 saw prices rise sharply again and,with Europe prices over$30 per MMBTU,this dragged up the average World price to$9.48 per MMBTU its highest price ever.The highest prices ever were also recorded in all other regions apart from North America and the Former Soviet Union.In 2023,prices eased back in E

329、urope,Asia Pacific and Asia,with North America also declining sharply.The average World price,while down to$5.70 per MMBTU,was still the second highest average price recorded by the surveys since 2005.53WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 153WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection

330、5Global Gas Price Convergence54WHOLESALE GAS PRICE SURVEY 2024 EDITIONSection 5 Global Gas Price Convergence5.1 INTRODUCTION16In the period since the surveys began in 2005,it is generally recognised that the global natural gas markets have become more integrated through increased LNG trade,increased

331、 market related pricing and gas trading hub development.It might be expected,therefore,that global gas prices would converge,as markets became more integrated.However,the conventional wisdom is that of global gas price divergence,based on a few regional gas price markers such as Henry Hub,NBP and Ja

332、panese import prices,especially until 2015.A casual look at Figure 40 on wholesale price levels by region would appear to confirm the conventional wisdom,as the differentials between Asia,Asia Pacific and Europe prices,on the one hand,widened compared to most other regions through 2015.This section

333、contains an analysis of whether gas prices have been converging on a global basis over the years of the survey,using the wholesale price data from the sixteen surveys.5.2 MEASURING PRICE CONVERGENCEThe wholesale price surveys have resulted in a unique database with data on gas price formation mechanisms,gas volumes,and annual average gas prices of well over 100 markets.The database enables analysi