1、THIS PROJECT IS CO-FUNDED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION SMALL-SCALE FISHERIES IN A WARMING OCEAN EXPLORING ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Imprint Publisher WWF Germany; International WWF Centre for Marine Conservation, Hamburg Year of 2020 publication Authors La Monnier mainland and Galapagos Islands, South A
2、frica and the Philippines). These models were based on multitemporal data sets for the areas where the study took place, designed by using outputs of the IPCC scenarios and risk analysis methods. This allowed us to identify some of the anticipated impacts of climate change on the currently exploited
3、 fish stocks in those countries. The second part of the study aimed to i) explore local perceptions by fishers, of the effects of climate change on small-scale fisheries, ii) describe how well prepared the small-scale fishing sector is in front of climate change, and iii) illustrate the adaptation m
4、easures, capabilities, challenges, and actions, carried on by fishers, to cope with climate change. We organized four workshops (in the same three case countries) involving varied and relevant sectors and actors, within the small-scale fisheries sector. The workshops were attended by fishers, resear
5、chers and managers and exhibited diverse formats, based on the locations and fisheries sector characteristics. 6 Our fine-grained climatic models showed that global heating is expected to have significant adverse impact on most of the main fish species exploited by small-scale fishers in the case co
6、untries, even if global warming is limited to 2C (being the best-case scenario). Most considered fish species exhibit a medium or high risk to suffer from climate impacts and many of them will be outside their maximum preferred temperature within a few decades. That will ultimately lead to a decreas
7、e in biomass by -5 to -20%, depending on species and scenarios. However, our models did not include a range of climate heating effects, such as the complete loss of essential fish habitats (ex. coral reefs) that will have severe additional devastating effects on the local ecosystems. It must also be
8、 noted that some of the produced models illustrated trends but could not be fully precise (i.e., Galapagos case), due to high systems dynamics and rather scarce availability of information on some of the commercial fish stocks. In our models, species composition of the catch is also expected to chan
9、ge, notably in Ecuador and South Africa, where the small-scale fisheries are currently targeting a large diversity of fish. As for the Philippines, the handline tuna fishery emerges as the most at-risk under the worst-case scenario for this country, where a large decrease in catches are expected and
10、 where those catch losses can not be compensated by switching to other target species. The results of the local/traditional knowledge part show that small-scale fishers are already experiencing strong effects of climate change, entailing serious socio-economic consequences in communities that are of
11、ten already struggling with low incomes. The most frequently mentioned signs of climate change observed by fishers includes abnormally warm seawater temperatures. In some seasons and in some areas, fishers reported an increased frequency and severity of extreme events such as high tides or strong wi
12、nds. In all three countries Global heating has impact on most of the main fish species exploited by small-scale fishers 7 Fish landing site in Puerto Lopez, Ecuador Philipp Kanstinger/WWF workshop participants experienced decreases in fish availability, either due to a decrease in fish abundance or
13、changes in their distribution (further offshore and/or deeper). Fishers also highlighted changes in the health of ecosystems, notably with coral reefs being degraded or already dead, which is a matter of great concern. Socio-economic consequences highlighted by the fishers were lower incomes, caused
14、 by fewer fish and personal safety concerns, due to the increased difficulty of finding fish and/or caused by more frequent extreme sea conditions. The common point among participants of the four workshops, was in fact, that effects of climate change were considered a source of great concern and the
15、 dominant feeling of participants was that the fishery sector is not yet ready to adapt. General adaptation measures highlighted by the participants of the workshops included: i) better and more effective monitoring and control of fishing activities, ii) setting up participa- tive structures to bett
16、er involve all relevant actors during consultation and/or decision-making processes, iii) improving the quality and thus the value and better commercialization of fish products, iv) better information, education and communication, v) the implementation of modern technologies and the use of effective
17、 fishing gear and equipment, vi) more research on fisheries resources, and vii) alternative economic incomes for fishers (both fishermen and fisherwomen). Our study found that small-scale fisheries in the four case studies analyzed, are not yet ready to face climate change and its expected effects o
18、n marine resources and fishing activities. We identified specific recommendations in the different study areas to improve fish- eries management, and governance policies and practices, according to the six key objectives needed to achieve the ecological and economic sustainability of the small-scale
19、 sector in the context of climate change. Specifically, these six objectives aim to make the fisheries manage- ment and governance more: 1. responsible and efficient, 2. adaptive, 3. participative and collaborative, 4. science-based, 5. precautionary, and 6. social (including gender equity). Main fi
20、ndings of this initiative show that the resilience of a socio-ecological system heavily depends upon the adaptation potential of the human community, and more broadly, the whole country. Small-scale fishers (men and women) in our three study areas, often live in low income communities (with the exce
21、ption of Galapagos, where the average basic wage is almost two times the one in Ecuador mainland). This means that adaptation mechanisms entail high costs (e.g. associated to the need to go out further to find fish, changing gear, investing in science, controls or capacity building, building safer h
22、arbors or landing sites) which often are or would be the cause and consequence of indebtment and bankruptcy. Reducing poverty and supporting the population with basic living conditions are a guarantee of better adaptation. Fishers were aware of climate change and its importance in affecting their re
23、sources. However, there is still much to be done urgently to warrant and ensure better living conditions (i.e. health, education, sanitary conditions and basic services) that will in turn increase the level of resilience of people and free capacities to utilize natural resources in a sustainable way
24、 and to support the health of local ecosystems, especially in the light of climate change. Fishers perceive already now the effects of climate change 8 INTRODUCTION AIM OF THE STUDY The latest projections warn us that climate change will have disastrous impacts on marine ecosystems and dependent fis
25、heries (IPCC 2019). These conclusions come from several scientific models predicting the effects of climate change on the future of fisheries on a global scale. Unfortunately, these models often display a high level of uncertainty and have a low geographic resolution. Additionally, social and human
26、driven variables are hardly integrated into such models, which results in these social di- mensions to be overlooked. This makes it challenging to propose concrete adaptation recommendations at local level (Holsman et al. 2019), especially for small-scale fisheries that will probably be hit hardest
27、with catches that are globally expected to decrease and become more variable under the impact of anthropogenic climate change (IPCC 2019). As climate change is currently already impacting distribution and abundances of several fish species (IPBES 2019), there is an urgent need to better understand h
28、ow to activate adaptation measures at present time. One way to explore and determine local adaptation measures, is to complement fine-grained climate model predictions with perceptions and knowledge of fishers themselves regarding the observed changes in their environment. This combined approach mer
29、ging predictive science with traditional knowledge aims to help foster and optimize adaptation strategies, especially in the fisheries that will face the hardest conditions (i.e. small-scale in areas of high impact). In this study, we first modelled the predictions of climate change impacts on fish
30、distribution and catch based on the outputs of the IPCC scenarios of climate change and by using risk analysis methods. This was achieved for representative small-scale fisheries in three major fishing countries: Ecuador (mainland and Galapagos Islands), South Africa, and the Philip- pines. In a sec
31、ond step, we determined through workshops how small-scale fishers and other stakeholders in those countries perceived the impacts of climate change based on local knowledge, and evaluated the capability of those fisheries to adapt to climate change. Under the sociological terms, local and traditiona
32、l knowledge, define how the relationships between humans and objects are. This idea follows Berger and Luckmanns perspective on the dialec- tical relationship between objective and subjective reality, constructed through the employ- ment of different knowledge. Additionally, it relies on Foucaults c
33、laim about discourses as practices of power/knowledge, understanding practices as conventionalized patterns of action, based on collective stocks of knowledge about the proper way of acting (Keller 2011a, 2011b). Within the frame of this study, the relation between fishers and fish gets deeply influ
34、enced by how fish has been made sense of, by fishers and by fishing communities, under the subject-object notion, over the period of decades, centuries or millennia, depending on the location of the sites within this study. In that context, the local/traditional knowledge about fishing and the pract
35、ices related to this activity, become key at defining the adaptation 9 strategies and/or mechanisms to cope with the change driven by climatic variations. In our study we identified the key challenges those fisheries will specifically have to face, and the knowledge or perceptions the different stak
36、eholders have on climate change. Thus, consider- ing “what science says and what fishers know”, this report aims to identify effective strategies for adaptation and to make significant recommendations regarding fisheries management and the fishing activity itself, in order to improve capacities of t
37、he fishers themselves to face the expected impacts of climate change. More specifically, in each case study we studied: 1. Climate change modelling: we explored the vulnerability and the risk of impact linked to climate change for different important commercial species in the case studies fisheries.
38、 2. Knowledge Gascuel Gattuso et al. 2015). Climate change also induces an acceleration in the rise of sea-level (Nerem et al. 2018; WMO 2019). There is a high certainty that the sea level will rise to some extent in 95% of the oceans by the end of the century (IPCC 2019). The two major causes of a
39、global rise in sea-level are thermal expansion of the oceans (water expands as it warms) and the increased melting of glaciers and sea-ice. Sea-level rise is of high concern and importance for coastal systems as it could lead to storm surges, coastal flooding, coastal erosion and salinisation (IPCC
40、2019). Phytoplankton production is the process at the base of the marine food web, controlling through bottom-up mechanisms the energy and food available to higher trophic levels1 and ultimately to fish. Change in primary production is an indicator of changes in light, tem- perature and nutrients. I
41、n tropical marine ecosystems, warmer conditions may reduce the abundance and primary productivity of phytoplankton. This decrease results from enhanced 1Thetrophiclevelofaspeciesdefinesitsplacewithinthefoodweb.Bydefinition,primaryproducers(i.e.phytoplankton,algae) areattrophiclevel1,theirpredator(i.
42、e.firstorderconsumersincludingsmallzooplankton,herbivorousfishorinvertebrates) areattrophiclevel2,theirpredatorsattrophiclevel3,etc.ThetrophiclevelofourstudiedspeciesisprovidedinTableII.3,from FishBase(Froese FAO 2018). Trends resulting from climate change models have to be considered cautiously, as
43、 the magni- tude of predictions might show some level of uncertainty (Payne et al. 2016). In addition, global trends can mask local variability, with expected local changes that are even larger than the mean, depending on the region. Recently, the IPCC also underlined the importance of short-term va
44、riability and extreme events due to climate change. In particular, frequency and intensity of marine heat waves (Frlicher Thiault et al. 2019; WMO 2019). Observed and projected impacts on abundance and distribution of fish and invertebrates The physiology, biology (including reproduction and growth)
45、, ecology or behavior of all marine organisms are sensitive to sea water temperatures and to other parameters affected by climate change such as oxygen content or acidity (pH). Thus, climate change is expected to impact marine resources and associated fisheries (FAO 2018; Gascuel Cheung 2018). 2Thel
46、ayerofseawaterthatreceivesenoughsunlightforphotosynthesistooccur 13 Climate change is thus causing large-scale changes in marine biodiversity, both in terms of species biogeography and phenology3 (FAO 2018; IPBES 2019). The most important changes are expected in polar regions due to a massive arriva
47、l of temperate fish. Conversely, tropical zones are likely to see a number of local extinctions higher than the world average, extinctions that might not be compensated by species coming from warmer waters and hence a reduced biodiversity in these areas. Modifications of species compositions will ha
48、ve an impact on predator-prey relationships, thus affecting the functioning of trophic networks (Du Pontavice et al. 2019) and recruitment4 of commercial species. Britten et al. (2016) showed fish recruitment levels are already decreasing by 3% per decade on a global scale. As not all species are mo
49、ving towards poles at the same speed, or are not as sensitive to warmer temperatures in the same way, some matches/mismatches are expected in the timing of prey and predators that will adapt to local or regional changes in ocean temperature. Poloczanska et al. (2013) showed for instance that the seasonal shift induced by climate change should differ between the reproduction and larvae hatching of many fish species, and the production of zooplankton feeding those fish larvae. Physiology and ecology of marine species are also expected to be affected b
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