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1、Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human HealthI N S I G H T R E P O R TJ A N U A R Y 2 0 2 4In collaboration with Oliver WymanImages:Getty Images 2024 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including
2、 photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative pr
3、ocess facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.ContentsForeword 3Executive summary 41 Understanding the link between climate change and huma
4、n health 51.1 Climate change and the IPCC scenarios 61.2 The negative impacts of climate change on human health 92 Quantifying the impacts of future climate events on public health 112.1 Methodologyfor the climate-related health impact matrix 122.2 Deep dives on health impacts of the sixweather-rela
5、ted events 183 Building climate-resilient health systems 353.1 Resistance and recovery,the two key pillars for sustainablehealthsystems 363.2 Why policies and incentives need to change to enable climate-resilient health systems 38Conclusion 44Contributors 45Endnotes 46Quantifying the Impact of Clima
6、te Change on Human Health2ForewordClimate change is having a profound impact on global health whether its connected to the dwindling supply of freshwater because of droughts,the increase in infectious disease in the aftermath of flooding or the toxic air pollution accompanying raging wildfires.There
7、 is no doubt that global warming and extreme weather events are exacerbating health issues worldwide and putting strain on healthcare systems already stretched to the limit in some regions.Over the next decade,as detailed in the Forums Global Risks Report 2023,the failure to mitigate and adapt to cl
8、imate change will represent our gravest risk globally,with changing climate and weather patterns already leading to alarming trends.1 These include escalating new and existing pathogens,increases in air-and waterborne pollution and worsening extreme weather events such as heat waves,tropical storms
9、and floods.Additionally,the health inequity gap has also begun to widen due to the effects of climate change on vulnerable populations and geographies already facing hardship and limited access to high-quality,affordable healthcare.As part of a collaboration between the World Economic Forum and Oliv
10、er Wyman,an economic analysis focussing on how climate will likely transform the health landscape over the next two decades was carried out.Our in-depth analysis part of the Forums Climate and Health initiative also gauged climates impact on the global economy and healthcare systems around the world
11、 and offered actionable strategies to mitigate and prepare for the anticipated threat.Our goal with the report and initiative is to help the public and private sectors create more resilient and healthier communities.By raising awareness of the size and scope of the impending climate-driven health cr
12、isis,we hope to provide guidance to various regions and communities about how to use the limited time we have left to prepare.Shyam Bishen Head,Centre for Health and Healthcare;Member of the Executive Committee,WorldEconomic ForumSam Glick Global Leader of Health and Life Sciences,Oliver Wyman Quant
13、ifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human HealthJanuary 2024Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health3Executive summaryWhile there has been much discussion about the impact of climate change on nature and the global economy,some of the most pressing consequences of the earths risin
14、g temperatures will be on human health and the global healthcare system.This paper aims to quantify the health consequences of climate change,both in terms of the health outcomes themselves(mortality and healthy lives lost)and in terms of the economic costs to the healthcare system.Six major climate
15、-driven event categories were analysed as important drivers of negative health impacts,including floods,droughts,heat waves,tropical storms,wildfires and rising sea levels.The findings of the analysis showed that by 2050,climate change is likely to cause an additional 14.5million deaths and$12.5 tri
16、llion in economic losses worldwide.Climate-induced impacts will account for a further$1.1 trillion in extra costs to healthcare systems,creating a significant additional burden on already strained infrastructures and medical and human resources.Of the weather events analysed,floods were found to pos
17、e the highest acute risk of climate-induced mortality,accounting for 8.5 million deaths by 2050.Droughts,indirectly linked to extreme heat,are the second-highest cause of mortality,with an anticipated 3.2 million deaths.Heat waves,which constitute a prolonged period of extreme temperatures and humid
18、ity,take the highest economic toll at an estimated$7.1 trillion by 2050 due to the loss in productivity.Climate change will trigger a catastrophic rise across several climate-sensitive disease outcomes,including vector-borne disease.Warmer temperatures will increase both the breeding period and geog
19、raphical range of mosquito colonies,leading to the expansion of diseases like malaria,dengue and Zika to moderate and previously less affected climate zones such as Europe and the United States.By 2050,an additional 500 million people may be at risk of exposure to vector-borne diseases.Importantly,c
20、limate change will exacerbate global health inequities.The most vulnerable populations,including women,youth,elderly,lower-income groups and hard-to-reach communities,will be the most affected by climate-related consequences.Regions such as Africa and southern Asia face heightened vulnerability to c
21、limate change impacts exacerbated by existing resource limitations,adequate infrastructure and essential medical equipment,further complicating their ability to address and adapt to environmental challenges.There is still time for the global economy to decisively reduce emissions and enact strategie
22、s to safeguard human health from the impacts of climate change.However,it is imperative for policy-makers to recognize and address the insufficient readiness of healthcare systems to mitigate health consequences.Unlike the case with COVID-19,which took governments and the global healthcare industry
23、by surprise,a unique window exists to adapt and prepare healthcare infrastructures,workforces and supply chains for the escalating impact of the climate crisis.Collaborative efforts involving multiple stakeholders and industries are essential to address these challenges and to achieve a thorough and
24、 comprehensive health system transformation.By 2050,climate change will place immense strain on global healthcare systems,causing 14.5 million deaths and$12.5 trillion in economic losses.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health4Understanding the link between climate change and human
25、health 1Climate change impacts health directly through disease and mental health issues,disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health5Global warming scenarios and related causesThere are many megatrends that will characterize the 21st-ce
26、ntury global economy.Yet none so perilous and disruptive as climate change the mega trend that is likely to dictate the fate of all the others.By the second decade of this century,Earths temperature was 1.1C above where it had been between the years 1850 and 1900,according to the United Nations Inte
27、rgovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).2 As a result,the world is experiencing severe tropical storms,life-threatening heat waves,droughts,wildfires,rising sea levels and flooding across the globe.This increase in the severity of climate events is the result of the relentless rise in greenhouse
28、 gas(GHG)emissions that trap the suns heat in the atmosphere and push Earths temperature ever higher.These emissions have grown steadily since pre-industrial days,with a particularly rapid acceleration since the 1970s.There has not been a year since the turn of the millennium when emissions fell,wit
29、h the exception of 2020 the year the global economy was upended by the COVID-19 pandemic and most economic activity came to a standstill for months.3 Even after that disruption of more than a year,2022 managed to break yet another emissions record,according to the International Energy Agency(IEA),an
30、d 2023 is expected to be higher still.4 Carbon dioxide(CO2),methane and nitrous dioxide the three principal greenhouse gases contributing to global warming sustained historically high rates of growth last year,with CO2 now 50%higher than its pre-industrial levels.The recent COP28 produced bold commi
31、tments in relationship to the impact on health,including the endorsement of a Declaration of Climate and Health by more than 120 countries and pledges of over$1 billion for health-related projects.5 The newfound recognition of the scope of the global health crisis because of climate will help addres
32、s this critical situation and may allow humanity to reduce the impact of climate-driven events on planetary health.Using the appropriate scenarioThe IPCC has now concluded that the most likely scenario for the trajectory of emissions by the year 2100 puts Earths temperature more than 2.7C higher tha
33、n pre-industrial times.6 Thats 80%above the 1.5C limit nations pledged to abide by in 2015 as part of the Paris Agreement on climate.7The underlying causes of the increase in emissions are ever-expanding human economic activities whether it be from burning fossil fuels,patterns of consumption and pr
34、oduction or the worlds land use and destruction of forests.To varying degrees,all regions and populations have contributed to climate change,and the entire planet will live with effects of global warming over the remainder of the century.There are multiple mitigation efforts currently underway,inclu
35、ding the development of technologies and products that do not rely on fossil fuels,which,if sustained,can decrease GHG emissions,improve global health and bolster economic and political stability.Forecasting the impact of climate change through scenario planningOver the past two decades,the IPCC has
36、 issued several different scenarios showing how global warming might evolve.In 2014,the IPCC issued the Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs),which were created as a time series of long-term environmental effects of emissions,concentrations of the full suite of GHG,aerosols and chemically acti
37、ve gases,and land use.8 The four original pathways covered a wide range of radiative forcings,which referred to external factors that influence the Earths energy balance by altering the amount of incoming or outgoing energy.This variation contributes to changes in climate patterns.The four original
38、RCPs include the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6 and RCP8.5.Two new ones were added later,RCP1.9 and RCP7.All represent various emissions levels and climate states for Earth by 2100.A few years later,the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)were released.9 These were an attempt to add economic and demographic tren
39、ds and technology advancements to the environmental factors already considered.The SSPs present five distinct trajectories that Earths global warming could follow.These pathways provide a comprehensive perspective on a“business as usual”world absent of future climate policies,with projected globalwa
40、rming in the year 2100 ranging from a minimum of 3.1C to a maximum of 5.1C above pre-industrial levels.Scenarios used in the climate and health modelThe SSPs provide scenarios describing different socioeconomic and environmental conditions,including population growth,economic development,energy use
41、and technological advancements.These narratives help to capture the range of possible futures based on different societal choices and policy decisions.1.1 Climate change and the IPCC scenarios COP28 produced bold commitments on climates impact on health,including a Declaration of Climate and Health
42、endorsed by more than 120 nations.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health6SSPs as defined by the IPCC in 2100FIGURE 1The RCPs,on the other hand,focus on quantifying the radiative forcing levels associated with different GHG concentration trajectories.They provide specific pathways f
43、or future GHG emissions and concentrations,which are used as inputs for climate models to project future climate change.By combining the SSPs with the RCPs,researchers can explore the interactions between socioeconomic factors and GHG emissions and how they contribute to future climate outcomes.This
44、 combination allows for a more comprehensive analysis of the potential impacts of different socioeconomic pathways on climate change,helping policy-makers and researchers understand the range of alternative future scenarios and make informed decisions on that understanding.As the basis for this stud
45、y,SSP2,the“middle of the road”scenario,was chosen in combination with RCP6.The two scenarios most closely resemble current trendlines on the various factors being considered.The choice is justified based on assumptions about the emissions trajectory,policy relevance,scientific consensus,comparabilit
46、y and the range of impacts captured.Based on the research,RCP6 offers the most realistic RCP choice compared to todays outlook.The alternative RCP4.5 considers GHG emissions that are lower than current levels,while RCP7 is associated with very high GHG emissions that appear extreme given current tre
47、nds.Recent studies support the choice of the SSP2-RCP6 scenario considering temperature projections.For example,the United Nations Environment Programmes emissions report,released in November 2023,finds the world heading for a rise in temperature of 2.5 to 2.9C above pre-industrial levels unless cou
48、ntries step up action and deliver more than promised on their 2030 pledges under the Paris Agreement.10Extreme weather eventsRegardless of which scenario prevails,climate change is already to blame for temperature anomalies and air pollution spikes,as well as extreme weather-related events such as d
49、roughts,wildfires,severe tropical storms,prolonged heat waves,rising sea levels,intense rainfall and flooding.Even with only a 1.1C increase in the Earths temperature,these events are causing significant destruction to nature and infrastructure,widespread economic losses,sickness and death.For insta
50、nce,by September 2023,the United States had already set a record for billion-dollar natural disasters,with almost four more months left in the year,according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA).11 This list of disasters included several tropical storms,wildfires on the Hawai
51、ian island of Maui,flooding in Vermont and torrential rains in California.SSP2 6.0Middle of the road:steady progress withpersistent challenges in development,trends broadly follow their historical patternsSSP3Regional rivalry:nationalism and security concerns hinder global development effortsSSP4Ine
52、quality:growing inequalities,fragmented societies and technological disparitiesSSP5Fossil-fuelled development:rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use81602138140GDP per capita,2$,thousands7.09.012.69.37.4World population,billions6.0RCPscenario3.23Average temperature increase3
53、,C5.5Radiative forcing,4 Watts/m704CO2 concen-tration,5 parts per million6.1CO2 emissions per capita,tonnesSSP1Sustainability:gradual shift to sustainable,inclusive,well-being-focused developmentPathways1DescriptionNotes:1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways;2 Gross domestic product in 2005 dollars,adjust
54、ed for inflation and cross-country price differences;3 Relative to the pre-industrial era(year 1750);4 Difference in incoming and outgoing energy in Earths climate system,Watts per square meter;5Measured in carbon dioxide parts per million.Source:Riahi et al.(2017),ourworldindata.org Data Explorer;O
55、liver Wyman analysisQuantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health7The affects of rising temperatures on weatherFIGURE 2WildfiresTropical stormsHeat wavesDroughtsSea level rise FloodsIntense and unusually heavy precipitation events that result in significant amounts of rain falling over a
56、relatively short period of time,leading to economic and health related issues.Prolonged periods of abnormally low rainfall or precipitation,resulting in water scarcity and deficitsin water availability that can adversely affect ecosystems,agriculture and water supplies.Persisting periods of unusual
57、temperatures above or below normal conditions over a region for at least three consecutive days.Powerful tropical storm with distinct low-pressure centre,rotating winds,heavy rainfall,resulting in widespread destruction and flooding in coastal areas.Destructive and uncontrolled fire that burns in th
58、e wildland vegetation,spreading quickly due to factors such as dry conditions,high winds,and the presence of flammable vegetation.Increase in the level of worlds oceans due to the effects of global warming(e.g.melting of glaciers and ice sheets),resulting in devastating effects on coastal habitats f
59、urther inland.Climate eventsThe six weather-related natural disasters,highlighted by the IPCC sixth report as having been most affected by climate change,were used as a starting point for the quantification exercise.These climate events have been widely assessed and modelled in scientific literature
60、.Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of precipitation.The rising temperatures of the worlds oceans increase the amount of water that evaporates into the air and causes polar ice to melt more rapidly.This has added to rainfall totals and water table levels in some areas and led to f
61、looding.High-tide flooding is now four to 10 times more frequent than it was 50 years ago in coastal areas.Currently,about 40%of the global population lives within 100 kilometres of the coast,increasing their exposure and vulnerability to rising sea levels and other coastal hazards like severe storm
62、s.12 Some 40 million people in Africa alone are living in severe drought conditions.Even in more temperate climes,drought is on the rise:Almost 40%of the lower 48 states in the United States and 17%of the European population are facing drought.13,14 As a result,high temperatures are threatening food
63、 and water security.Prolonged heat waves a period of abnormally high temperatures relative to seasonal averages have killed tens of thousands of people and led to considerable morbidity and productivity losses.In Europe,more than 62,000 people died in the record heat between late May and early Septe
64、mber 2022,according to a recently released research study,and the months of June,July and August in 2023 were even hotter.15,16 The number of high-intensity tropical storms is anticipated to increase by nearly 10%by 2050,with 90%of them expected to occur in Asia Pacific and North and Central America
65、.17 Wildfires are occurring around the globe as record heat dries out foliage and creates conditions ripe for forest fires.Besides the immense destruction of property and loss of life and livestock,wildfires worldwide are aggravating air pollution,which in turn exacerbates respiratory ailments as we
66、ll as cardiovascular diseases.Research suggests that air pollution will lead to six million to nine million premature deaths per year by 2060.18 The Earth has already experienced a 20-centimetre rise in average sea levels since 1880,and the rate of increase is accelerating,according to NOAA.19 This
67、has huge implications for tens of millions of people,given that eight of the worlds 10 largest cities are near coasts.20 This may make them more likely to become climate refugees,people who are forced to move from their homes because of global warming.El Nio and La Nia events,occurring as part of th
68、e El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),exert profound influences on global climate patterns.El Nio,marked by elevated sea surface temperatures,is associated with warmer conditions,droughts impacting water resources and agriculture,and intensified tropical cyclones.Conversely,La Nia,characterized by coo
69、ler sea surface temperatures,brings cooler climates,increased rainfall leading to potential flooding and heightened Atlantic hurricane activity.These phenomena underscore the critical role of ENSO events in shaping regional climates and influencing various sectors,necessitating vigilant monitoring a
70、nd adaptation strategies to mitigate the diverse impacts on ecosystems,agriculture and morbidity and mortality.21Sources:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)High temperatures are threatening food and water security with 40 million people in Africa,17%of Europe and 40%of the US lower 48 states facing dr
71、ought.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health8The cause-and-effect relationship between climate impacts and health outcomesClimate change is transforming the landscape of morbidity and mortality and is already having profound impacts on human health and health systems.Understanding
72、the cascading effects of climate events provides valuable insights into the cause-and-effect relationship between climate impacts and health outcomes.Health outcomes involve both direct and indirect consequences of these events some of which only appear months,and even years,after the event.Immediat
73、e impacts include deaths,physical injuries,malnutrition,respiratory and cardiovascular ailments and exposure to infectious diseases,such as cholera,dysentery and typhoid,which result from drinking contaminated water or eating contaminated food.The stress,trauma and displacement caused by climate-rel
74、ated disasters can be expected to produce a surge in mental health illnesses,including anxiety,depression and post-traumatic stress disorder(PTSD).In fact,a rise in mental health conditions is an outcome that all six climate events share.The six events often affect health determinants,including the
75、physical environment and social and economic well-being.Todays six have a particularly devasting impact on air and water quality and food availability.Longer-term and indirect impacts of this aggravation of health determinants might include stunted development among children as a result of malnutrit
76、ion,respiratory or cardiovascular diseases triggered by deteriorating air quality from a wildfire or prolonged heat wave or mental illness such as PTSD and general anxiety disorder from the disaster.1.2 The negative impacts of climate change on human healthOverview of climate hazard impact on health
77、 outcomes FIGURE 3MalnutritionFatalities and injuriesRespiratory diseasesTropical stormsInfectious diseasesCardiovascular diseasesDroughtsWildfiresFloodsSea level riseHeat wavesMentalhealthClimate hazardLandscape changeHealth determinantsHealth outcomesPollution,air qualityIncreased salinityPoor hyg
78、iene and sanitationDisplacement and migrationLoss of livelihoodIncreased temperatureVector habitat expansionWater scarity and contaminationDeforestationDesertificationVegetation and crop damage/stressSaltwater intrusionReduced water availabilityCoastal erosion and inundationInfrastructure damageSoil
79、 degradationHeat-related diseasesFood insecurityHealthWaterLand:agricultureLand:forestryInfrastructureOtherImpactNote:Only health outcomes with most impact per hazard.Source:Oliver Wyman analysis Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health9Vulnerable populations and awidening health equ
80、ity gapClimate change exacerbates existing health disparities,disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities that lack the resources and support infrastructure to mitigate global warmings impact or recover from climate-related disasters such as flooding or prolonged exposure to elevated tempera
81、tures leading to drought.While climate-related disasters are detrimental to healthcare resources for all populations,there are additional threats to vulnerable communities,which already face limited access to quality medical care.Low-income and hard-to-reach communities tend to live farther from hea
82、lth services and facilities and face additional challenges to accessing health services,such as a lack of transport.These populations often have to pay out-of-pocket costs for access to medical supplies and treatment.This differential in access to high-quality care perpetuates the disparities in hea
83、lth outcomes,widening the gap between the levels of mortality and morbidity experienced by disadvantaged populations and more privileged groups.Environmental disasters only serve to exacerbate these inequities.For instance,communities reliant on traditional livelihoods in agrarian or coastal areas o
84、ften bear the brunt of climate-related disruptions experiencing loss of income,displacement and reduced access to essential social services.In Sub-Saharan Africa,southern Asia and Central America,around 80 million people will be at risk of hunger by 2050.22 Not only do these populations already face
85、 higher risk of food insecurity,but they are also less likely to receive adequate relief to address the devastation to livelihoods,property,and food and water supplies.The importance of effective and reliable access to healthcareClimate change also has profound impacts on the robustness and reliabil
86、ity of healthcare services affecting a countrys economy and social network.In the acute aftermath of a significant climate event,there is the threat of physical damage to healthcare and other vital infrastructure that disrupt access to medical care and services such as the delivery of diagnostics,tr
87、eatments and other healthcare-related supplies.Additionally,healthcare systems face increased pressure when faced with surges in demand.This is especially true in low-and middle-income countries where healthcare systems may be less equipped and underfunded.Moreover,environmental disasters can also c
88、ause healthcare professional absenteeism,which leads to understaffing in times of increased patient needs.Understanding these connections is crucial for designing effective public health policies and building healthcare systems resilient enough to withstand and mitigate the effects of climate change
89、.Impact on the economy and communitiesClimate change can be expected to reduce GDP growth and restrict livelihoods for many.Approximately 3.3 billion to 3.6 billion people live in areas highly vulnerable to climate change,according to the United Nations,with many from low and middle-income countries
90、.23 Eight countries most affected by climate change compiled by the United Nations World Food Programme includes six African countries.24 While developed regions account for two-thirds of global emissions,Africa which only produces about 2-3%of global emissions is already suffering a disproportionat
91、e amount of the pain from climate change,according to the World Meteorological Organization(WMO).25Even if limiting global warming to 1.5C by the end of the century proves possible,the accumulated financial loss by 2030 from extreme temperatures alone is expected to reach$2.4 trillion.26 By 2030,mor
92、e than 2%of total working hours worldwide are projected to be lost every year because it is either too hot to work or employees are forced to operate at a slower pace because of the heat.In southern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa,the resulting productivity loss may reach 5%,according to the Internation
93、al Labour Organization.27DisplacementBy 2050,there could be as many as 1.2 billion climate refugees.28 More than half of the worlds population will live in regions with severely limited water supplies by 2040.This includes extensive regions in China and India.Even if limiting global warming to 1.5C
94、proves possible,the accumulated financial loss from climate by 2030 alone is expected to reach$2.4 trillion.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health10Quantifying the impacts of future climate events on public health2Climate change intensifies global health risks,causing higher morbid
95、ity and mortality.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health11The current analysis followed a stepwise approach to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the different health outcomes affected by climate change and the associated geographical risks.This methodology facilitated the ide
96、ntification of high-impact target areas for which solutions could be developed.2.1 Methodologyfor the climate-related health impact matrixStepwise approach used to determine,quantify and prioritize the long list of high-impact areasFIGURE 4Identification of 10 major health outcomesDetermination of 1
97、4 high-impact areasQuantify and shortlist high-impact areasHealth outcomes across six climate eventsHigh-impact areasAssessment criteria-Morbidity(number of quality years)-Mortality(number of deaths)-Productivity($,GDP)-Cost to health system($)Determine upcoming health outcomes(short-and long-term)t
98、riggered by identified six climate eventsAssociate health outcomes to geographies likely to be impacted from identified climate eventsScore and shortlist high-impact areas against four assessment criteriaAssess and prioritize high-impact areas3Determine geographies at risk2Identify health outcomes1S
99、ource:Oliver Wyman analysis 1.Identification of key weather-related events and modelling of health outcomes:The first step was to determine the weather events most affected by rising temperatures and climate change and identify short-and long-term health outcomes triggered by them.As seen in Figure
100、2,six weather events were chosen for analysis based on the proven escalation in severity and frequency linked to rising temperatures.These six events also affect a regions environment and economy,leading to the destruction of agriculture,deforestation,desertification,coastal erosion,water scarcity a
101、ndsoil degradation.Data linking the impact of weather events on health outcomes and health determinants were collected from a variety of sources,including the World Health Organization(WHO)framework for climate change,the IPCC,other UN-sponsored agencies and the WMO as well as more than 50 medical a
102、ndscientific research sources.29,30,312.Determination of vulnerable geographies:Thenext step was to identify geographical hot spots likely to experience the effects of the six climate events and associated health outcomes.Based on climate data and resources,quantitative analyses of the climate chang
103、e impact on health events across the geographies at risk were conducted.Health projections were informed by public and peer-reviewed climate model portal sources,such as Climate Change Knowledge Portal or Climate Analytics Climate Impact Explorer to ensure consistent baselines and projections of the
104、 likely increase in the occurrence of a given weather event in the SSP2-6 scenario.These were verified by leading economic experts at the WHO and Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health12Projection of health outcomes triggered by climate ev
105、ents by 2050(cumulative)FIGURE 5Prioritization matrix(logarithmic scale)Population impact(DALY)EventGeographyHealth impactEventGeographyHealth impactEconomic impact($)1 million10 million100 million1 billion10 billion100 billion1 trillion10 trillion57810,000100,0001 million10 mi
106、llion100 million1 billion1,000StuntingWestern Southern AfricaDroughts12MalariaMiddle AfricaFloodsHypertensionAsiaSea rise3HypertensionAfricaSea rise4PTSDSouth-East AsiaFloods5GADWestern USWildfires6PTSDAsiaStorms7GAD*MediterraneanDroughts8GADMediterranean EuropeWildfires9StuntingMediterraneanDrought
107、s10CasualtiesAsiaStorms11MalariaSouth-East AsiaFloods12PTSDFloodsNorthern South America13DengueAsiaFloods14CasualtiesSouth-East AsiaFloods15Heat-relatedSouth-East Asia&IndiaHeat waves16DengueAfricaFloods17CholeraMediterraneanDroughts18PTSDNorth&Central AmericaStorms19CasualtiesNorth&Central AmericaS
108、torms20WildfiresHeat wavesSea level riseDroughtsTropical stormsFloodsPriority 1Priority 2Priority 3Priority 4698324319Combining geographies at risk and likely health outcomes highlighted“high-impact areas”.Some examples of high-impact areas include South-East Asia where prolong
109、ed heat waves are likely to cause a significant increase in heat-related diseases or Western United States where wildfire smoke and subsequent air pollution are likely to exacerbate asthma and other respiratory ailments inneighbouring countries and regions.323.Assessment and prioritization of 2050s
110、high-impact areas:In order to identify possible adaptation and preparedness interventions,the final step consisted of scoring the high-impact geographic areas against four assessment criteria that considered both health and economic impacts.*Generalized anxiety disorderSource:Oliver Wyman analysis Q
111、uantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health13The health impact was modelled using the disability-adjusted life years(DALY)methodology.DALYs are metrics used by the WHO and other organizations to measure years of life lost to premature mortality associated to a specific cause as well as y
112、ears of healthy life lost to disability or reduced health.33 DALYs are calculated based on two criteria:morbidity and mortality.In this research,morbidity is defined as the average number of years a patient will live with a disease,condition or disability that was a consequence of the weather event.
113、Morbidity,in number of years,was calculated using the average life expectancy of people living in a specific geography,the average age of the patient population and the reduced life expectancy caused by the weather-related medical condition.Morbidity,in terms of number of cases,was calculated based
114、on the increased incidence of weather events and extrapolating the impact on current morbidity,as documented in the literature for the reference year(varies across studies).Mortality,was determined based on the number of deaths triggered by a climate event.These can be the direct result of the event
115、,such as flood-related drownings,or an indirect consequence,such as the exacerbation of respiratory diseases triggered by wildfires or cardiovascular diseases during heat waves.For the geographic areas considered at risk,mortality was calculated based on the increased incidence of weather events and
116、 extrapolating the impact on mortality,as documented in the literature for the reference year(varies across studies).The economic impact was considered as the sum of the productivity loss,caused by the increase in detrimental health outcomes and the cost of treatment.Productivity loss evaluates the
117、economic impact of the disease on the population and relates to absenteeism,reduced performance or premature mortality triggered by the disease.Absenteeism was calculated using the numbers of working days lost due to an event-related condition and also ultimately expressed in terms of the loss of GD
118、P percapita in the relevant geography.The cost to health systems was extracted from medical and scientific literature for each condition and translated as parameters for the modelling,withinflation applied where necessary.For instance,if the cost of healthcare treatments was based on 2015 actual dat
119、a,it was corrected for inflation to generate realistic health system cost projections(for 2023-2050,we included a yearly factor of 2.5%inflation).The global quantification of lossBy 2050,six weather-related events will define the destructive impacts of climate change on planetary health.The current
120、analysis conducted indicates that 14.5million deaths worldwide could be prevented by 2050.By 2050,six weather-related events will define the destructive impacts of climate change on planetary health.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health14Projection of health outcomes triggered by
121、climate events by 2050(cumulative)FIGURE 6Morbidity health impactmillions,years lived with disability(YLD)1,02711,58927Mortality health impactmillions,years of life lost to due to premature mortality(YLL)1,9212,0621,2921,5667,0387,11012,4627511,2837336911,3391,268269
122、Economic impact$,billionsDroughtsFloodsWildfiresSea levelriseTropicalstormsHeatwaves3.28.50.30.10.61.6Total14.5Deaths millionsYLDYLLTreatment costProductivity lossDeathsSource:Oliver Wyman analysis Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health15Projection of health outcomes triggered by c
123、limate events,cumulativeFIGURE 7DroughtsFloodsWildfiresSea level riseTropical stormsHeat wavesTotalHealth impact billions,DALYEconomic impact$,trillionsDeaths millions2030204020500.41.12.00.20.20.51.502.16.912.57.11.31.62.501.96.914.51.68.53.2The escalating frequency of floods
124、is anticipated totake the highest toll,with an estimated 8.5million deaths.Without mitigation and adaptation measures,the Asia Pacific region is likely to suffer the highest mortality totals because of the flooding anticipated in heavily populated coastal areas and the prospect of higher-than-normal
125、 rainfall,WMO data suggests.The second-highest mortality rate will be from droughts,with an estimated 3.2 million associated deaths worldwide.The acute and long-term effects on the morbidity and mortality of children under the age of five are the biggest driver of droughts impact.Heat waves are expe
126、cted to claim approximately 1.6million lives by 2050,with those aged 65 and older being the most susceptible to the prolonged extreme temperatures.While heat waves may have a lower count of DALYs versus droughts and floods,they are projected to have the highest economic impact of the events studied.
127、The resulting productivity loss from these periods of extreme heat affect a broader population and pose a significant challenge to economic stability.Heat-related illnesses and reduced work capacity during extreme heat events can lead to substantial economic disruption.The projected impact of tropic
128、al storms is expected to result in an additional one-half million deaths by 2050,while the devastating spread of wildfires is predicted to claim another 300,000 lives.Finally,rising sea levels will result in 100,000 more lives lost.Why morbidity will have the highest negativeimpact The impact of cli
129、mate events on health outcomes isprimarily driven by morbidity rather than mortality.It is projected that only 21%of the overall health impact will be attributable to mortality,while a concerning 79%is due to long-term disabilities andhealth conditions that developed subsequent to the climate event.
130、This trend raises concerns about the lasting effects of climate events on the well-being of individuals.It also highlights an alarming trend of climate events leading to generations of unhealthy individuals.The prevalence of stunted development among children and generalized anxiety disorder illustr
131、ates why morbidity may have such a negative impact over the rest of the century.The incidence of both issignificantly higher than almost any other diseaseor condition,except for malaria,which follows close behind.Source:Oliver Wyman analysis Only 21%of the health impact will be attributable to morta
132、lity,while 79%is due to long-term disabilities and health conditions that developed subsequent to the climate event.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health16Projection of health outcomes triggered by climate events by 2050(cumulative)FIGURE 8Health impact,millions DALYTotal economic
133、 loss$,billionsAfricaAsiaEuropeSouth AmericaNorth and Central AmericaSouth-West PacificMiddle East2,1693,5252,6231,1372,2424912751,2395886544363525584128279YLDYLLMorbidity will also be a factor in why developing nations see more impact from climate change.While the devastating impacts of
134、climate change events are globally distributed,developing countries will be disproportionately affected due to their dense populations living in low-lying coastal zones and large swaths of geography in these areas that have hot and dry climates.Yet the losses also reflect the fact that low-income an
135、d other vulnerable populations are less able to evacuate areas affected by a disaster and have fewer resources to help them mitigate the impact of these weather events.Regions in Africa and the Middle East are expected to shoulder the brunt of this disparity,sustaining a staggering cumulative impact
136、 of 1.27billion DALYs lost and a combined economic cost of$2.7 trillion from lost productivity and healthcare costs.Following closely behind,Asia is projected to face the second-highest impact,with 588 million DALYs lost and economic impact losses amounting to$3.5 trillion.While the impacts in other
137、 regions are comparatively lower,they are still significant.Europe faces cumulative health impacts of 64.5million DALYs lost and an economic impact of$2.6 trillion.In North and Central America,the economic impact totals$1.1 trillion,while DALYs are estimated at 44.0 million.South America and the Sou
138、th-West Pacific Ocean are projected to experience lower impacts,with 30.8 million DALYs lost and$2.2 trillion in economic losses for South America and 11.1 million DALYs lost and$275 billion in economic losses for the South-West Pacific Ocean.The total cumulative healthcare system costs to provide t
139、reatment for diseases caused by climate change are projected to be over$1.1 trillion by 2050.Nearly half of this cost burden is expected in North and Central America,reflecting relatively higher hospitalization and treatment costs in these regions.Asia is another major contributor towards healthcare
140、 costs due to climate change predominantly driven by the large number of people affected by climate-related disasters.Source:Oliver Wyman analysis Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health172.2 Deep dives on health impacts of the sixweather-related eventsClimate event 1:floods andextr
141、eme rainfallHealth outcomesFloods and extreme rainfall events pose significant risks to human health.Floods can lead to tragic fatalities,primarily caused by drowning or hypothermia.Additionally,individuals may sustain injuries from debris and encounter electrical hazards in flooded areas.The physic
142、al dangers associated with floods are evident,but the mental health impact should not be overlooked.Acute flooding events,as well as the subsequent loss of homes and livelihoods,can contribute to PTSD,anxiety and depression among affected individuals.Overview of floods impact on health outcomes FIGU
143、RE 9Fatalities and injuriesClimate hazardLandscape changeHealth determinantsHealth outcomesVector habitat expansionIncreased moisture/humidityFood insecurityFood insecurityFloodsLandslidesMental health issuesInfectious diseasesRespiratory diseasesMalnutritionCrop damageInfrastructure damageCoastal e
144、rosion&inundationHealthWaterLand:agricultureLand:forestryInfrastructureOtherImpactSource:Oliver Wyman analysis Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health18Floods can also have devastating effects on vulnerable groups,including the elderly,children,people experiencing homelessness and i
145、ndividuals with disabilities.These populations may face challenges evacuating or finding safe shelter during flood events,putting their lives and well-being at risk.Floods make it difficult to seek out medical care,with roads impassable and vehicles,including emergency vehicles,often inoperable.In a
146、ddition,it is widely recognized that high rainfall increases the density of microbial agents in surface water,elevating the risk of waterborne diseases.Stagnant water resulting from floods creates favourable conditions for the expansion of vector habitats,increasing the transmission rates of vector-
147、borne diseases.This dual threat of waterborne and vector-borne diseases further compounds the health risks associated with floods.Projecting the future incidenceSouth-East Asia is the region with the highest concentration of flood-exposed people globally,making it particularly vulnerable to the impa
148、cts of floods.Northern South America is another key region at risk,with floods accounting for a significant portion of climate-related disasters and deaths in the area.In fact,from 1970 to 2019,floods accounted for 59%of climate-related disasters and 77%of climate-related deaths in South America.34
149、Additionally,the midsection of Africa is projected to experience a distinct rise in flood risk.South-East Asia,northern South America and Middle Africa represent key regions projected to face the highest impact due to floods and rainfallFIGURE 10Overview of projected global flood exposure(2051-2070)
150、NorthernSouthAmericaMiddleAfricaSouth-East AsiaFlood water depth(m)1m1-5m5-10m10mSources:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6),World Bank;WMO;Oliver Wyman analysisLooking at global flood and rainfall projections,it is evident that the frequency and intensity of these events are expected to increase.By 2
151、050,South-East Asia is projected to face the highest impact,with extreme rainfall forecasts indicating an increase of 17%to 35%over current levels.Longer-term projections to the year 2100 suggest even more significant increases,ranging from 22%to 77%over current levels.35Quantifying future health an
152、d economic impacts by 2050Floods and extreme rainfall have significant health outcomes,with malaria in central Africa and PTSD in South-East Asia being the two biggest impacts.Globally,the combined health impacts of these events are projected to cost approximately$1.6trillion to the healthcare syste
153、m and affect 483million DALYs.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health19The financial burden and DALYs associated with floods and extreme rainfall are substantial.Fatalities and injuries resulting from these events are estimated to cost$99 billion and affect 7.7million DALYs.Malaria,
154、a vector-borne disease that thrives in stagnant water,is projected to have a significant impact,costing approximately$1 trillion and impacting 409 million DALYs.Additionally,the mental health consequences,particularly from PTSD,are anticipated to cost$275 billion and affect 58 million DALYs.Specific
155、ally,malaria in Central Africa is expected to have a significant economic impact,costing approximately$345 billion to the healthcare system and impacting 151 million DALYs.Additionally,PTSD in South-East Asia is projected to add$147billion to healthcare system costs and impact 41 million DALYs.The t
156、raumatic experiences associated with floods and the subsequent loss of homes and livelihoods contribute to the mental health challenges faced by individuals in this region.Climate event 2:droughtsHealth outcomesDrought,a prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall,disrupts the delicate balance of ec
157、osystems and communities.Its impact extends far beyond water scarcity,affecting various aspects of human life and well-being.Some of the most concerning consequences of drought are the increase in malnutrition,mental health issues and infections,which arise from food insecurity,loss of livelihood an
158、d poor hygiene.Projection of health outcomes triggered by floods by 2050,cumulative 2023-2050FIGURE 11Prioritization matrix(logarithmic scale)Focus on high-impact areasPopulation impact(DALY)Economic impact($)10,000100,0001 million10 million100 million1 billion100 million1 billion10 billion100 billi
159、on1 trillionSouth-East Asia casualtiesSouth-East Asia malariaSouth-East Asia PTSDNorthern South America casualtiesNorthern South America malariaNorthern South America PTSDMiddle Africa casualtiesMiddle Africa malariaMiddle Africa PTSDMiddle Africa dengueSouth-East Asia dengueNorthern South America d
160、enguePriority 1Priority 2Priority 3Lower prioritySource:Oliver Wyman analysis Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health20Overview of droughts impact on health outcomes FIGURE 12Respiratory diseasesMalnutritionInfectious diseasesCardiovascular diseaseClimate hazardLandscape changeHealt
161、h determinantsHealth outcomesLoss of livelihoodMigrationIncreased dust concentrationParasite breedingPoor hygiene and sanitationChronic stressReduced water quality e.g.stagnationReduced water availabilityDroughtsSoil degradationMental healthFood securityHealthWaterLand:agricultureLand:forestryInfras
162、tructureOtherImpactDroughts have a profound effect on food security and price stability,as they reduce crop yield through soil degradation and decrease the availability of food.The scarcity of water and its subsequent impact on agriculture often lead to widespread malnutrition.The condition,which is
163、 defined by a lack of adequate nutrients,multiplies the impact on affected communities and turns a short-term disaster into a longer-term health concern of stunted growth among children and other medical disorders associated with vitamin deficiencies.Not only is there not enough potable water for pr
164、oper hydration.There is also not enough for cooking,bathing and other basic sanitation activities.This shortage leaves communities vulnerable to Note:Spread of vector-borne diseases such as dengue also noted,but literature indicates cholera impact has a more prominent impact,e.g.Mali cholera epidemi
165、c(Tauxe et al.1988).Sources:Stanke et al.,2013;Berman et al.,2017;Bryan et al.,2020;IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6);Center for Climate and Energy Solutions;CenterforDisease Control and Prevention(CDC);World Health Organization;Oliver Wyman analysisQuantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human
166、Health21the spread of diseases,such as cholera,typhoid and dysentery,that are associated with using contaminated water.Drought-induced migration can further exacerbate the transmission of diseases,straining healthcare systems and compounding public health challenges.The struggle to find food,loss of
167、 livelihood and the forced migration that often accompanies droughts can also have severe mental health implications,such as anxiety and stress.Already affecting poorer nations more profoundly than richer ones,droughts disproportionately affect particularly vulnerable populations,including people li
168、ving in poverty,the elderly,children,those with disabilities and individuals in occupations dependent on weather like farming.Even before a disaster,these groups often face limited access to food,clean water and healthcare.During droughts,their challenges become uniquely difficult as they also are i
169、solated from larger populations and have limited mobility.Addressing the multifaceted consequences and causes of drought requires a comprehensive approach that encompasses sustainable water management,disease prevention and control,agricultural resilience and mental health support.Investing in these
170、 areas will build more resilient communities with the tools to avoid or at least mitigate the devastating effects of drought on individuals and societies.Projecting the future incidenceThe outlook for droughts is a cause for concern,as projections indicate an increase in their frequency and severity
171、 in several key regions.Extensive research has identified four regions as high-risk areas for droughts by 2050:southwestern Africa,the countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea,southwestern South America and western North America.These regions are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate ch
172、ange,including reduced rainfall and increased temperatures.Global drought projections estimate an increase of up to 36%in drought occurrence by 2050 in some regions.36 These projections are based on the frequency of drought days,which show a clear upward trend compared to current levels.For instance
173、,in western Southern Africa,drought frequency is projected to increase by 20%to 25%by 2050,highlighting the growing risk faced by thisregion.Looking further ahead,the long-term changes in drought patterns could be even more significant.In the Mediterranean,for example,the projected increase in droug
174、ht frequency by 2100 varies widely,ranging from 20%to a staggering 110%.These projections underscore the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of drought and build resilience in these vulnerable regions.Future projections of drought in high-risk areas FIGURE 13Western North Amer
175、icaSouthwestern South AmericaWestern Southern AfricaMediterranean Sources:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6);UNCCD 2022;Cabot Institute for the Environment;Oliver Wyman analysis Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health22Quantifying health and economic impacts by 2050The global impact
176、of droughts on health outcomes is profound,with stunted development among children,generalized anxiety disorder and cholera alone projected to cost the health system a staggering$2.1 trillion and impact 1.1 billion DALYsby 2050.Projection of health outcomes triggered by droughts by 2050,cumulative 2
177、023-2050FIGURE 14Prioritization matrix(logarithmic scale)Population impact(DALY)Economic impact($)1,00010,000100,0001 millon10 millon100 millon1 billion100 million1 billion10 billion100 billion1 trillion-Western Southern Africa stunting Western Southern Africa GADWestern Southern Africa choleraMedit
178、erranean stunting Mediterranean GADMediterranean choleraSouthwestern South America GADSouthwestern South America choleraWestern North America GADWestern North America choleraPriority 1Priority 2Priority 3Lower prioritySouthwestern South America stunting Source:Oliver Wyman analysis23Quantifying the
179、Impact of Climate Change on Human HealthOverview of heat waves impact on health outcomes FIGURE 15MalnutritionHeat-related diseasesInfectious diseasesMental healthClimate hazardLandscape changeHealth determinantsHealth outcomesWater scarity and contaminationFood securityOcean acidificationMigrationM
180、arine heat wavesInfrastructure damageDroughtsHeat wavesWildfiresVegetation and crop destructionSoil degradationCVD*and respiratory diseasesIncreased temperatureHealthWaterLand:agricultureLand:forestryInfrastructureOtherImpactStunting emerges as the most significant health outcome triggered by drough
181、ts,accounting for a substantial portion of the economic burden and DALYs.The cost to the health system from stunted development in children is estimated at$1.8 trillion,with an impact of 887 million DALYs.This highlights the severe consequences of food insecurity and malnutrition resulting from drou
182、ght-induced crop failures and reduced food availability.Generalized anxiety disorder,a mental health disorder exacerbated by the stress and uncertainty associated with droughts,is projected to cost$198billion to the health system and impact 176million DALYs.The psychological toll of droughts cannot
183、be underestimated,and the long-term effects on mental well-being necessitate attention and support.Cholera,a waterborne disease that thrives in conditions of poor sanitation and hygiene often exacerbated by droughts,is estimated to cost health systems$51 billion and impact 8.1million DALY.The scarci
184、ty of water resources and inadequate sanitation facilities increase the vulnerability of communities to infectious diseases,further straining healthcare systems.When examining specific regions,undernutrition and stunting in the Mediterranean region and Western and Southern Africa emerge as the two l
185、argest health outcomes triggered by droughts.The Mediterranean region is anticipated to bear a cost of$700 billion to the health system and experience an impact of 16 million DALYs from stunted development in children.Similarly,stunting in Western and Southern Africa is projected to cost$231 billion
186、 to the health system and impact a staggering 727 million DALYs.These figures underscore the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the health consequences of droughts.Investing in measures to enhance food security,mental health support,and access to clean water and sanitation can mitig
187、ate the economic and human toll of drought-induced health challenges and build resilience in vulnerable regions.Climate event 3:heat wavesHealth outcomesAmid the backdrop of global warming,heat waves characterized by prolonged periods of exceptionally high temperatures often accompanied by heightene
188、d humidity levels have become increasingly prevalent.These heat events disrupt the bodys inherent cooling mechanisms,giving rise to a spectrum of symptoms ranging from mild discomfort to severe,life-threatening conditions.Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can instigate a cascade of heat-related ail
189、ments,including everything from heat cramps,caused by excessive sweating and electrolyte imbalances,to heat exhaustion,typified by symptoms such as dizziness,weak pulse,nausea and fainting.At the extreme end,heatstroke,marked by core body temperatures surpassing 40C,poses a critical threat,capable o
190、f inducing organ damage and fatalities.*Cardiovascular diseasesSource:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6);PubMed;UN Environment Programme;Oliver Wyman analysis Cholera,a waterborne disease that thrives in conditions of poor sanitation and hygiene often exacerbated by droughts,is estimated to cost heal
191、th systems$51billion.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health24Heat waves also have a profound impact on occupational health and workforce productivity,particularly in regions vulnerable to climate change.They also affect poorer populations disproportionately because of their often-l
192、imited access to air conditioning and large supplies of freshwater.Professions characterized by significant heat exposure,such as those in agriculture and construction industries,are particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of heat waves.Beyond the direct implications of heat-related fataliti
193、es,the physiological strain induced by heat stress and dehydration further burdens the heart and respiratory system and can significantly amplify the risks of heart attacks,stroke and heart failure.Extreme heat can also aggravate conditions like arthritis,autoimmune diseases,migraines and respirator
194、y-related ailments.While the scope of research on the specific correlations between heat waves and certain diseases remains limited,the overall impact of heat-related diseases has been extensively documented.Projecting the future incidence Beyond the sheer pressures from climate change,heat waves ha
195、ve become more prevalent because of increasing urbanization.The urban heat island effect is the phenomenon caused by the fact that city buildings,roads,sidewalks and other infrastructure absorb and re-emit the suns heat more than natural landscapes.It exacerbates already elevated temperatures within
196、 cities,disproportionately affecting marginalized communities without air conditioning,older people and those with disabilities,people experiencing homelessness and other vulnerable populations.Five main regions have been identified in the literature as high-risk areas for increased heat waves by 20
197、50FIGURE 16Overview of regions identified as high-risk areas for heat waves by 2050365 day1 dayHistorical and future projections of heat wavesNote:1 Days per year when air temperature and humidity conditions pose a risk of death.Sources:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6);Oliver Wyman analysisQuantify
198、ing the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health25Comprehensive global assessments underscore the heightened susceptibility of various regions to amplified heat wave risks,notably encompassing the US,Central America,southern and western Africa,the Middle East,India,South-East Asia and northern Austr
199、alia.Projected estimations for 2050 reveal an alarming surge in heat wave exposure,with anticipated increments ranging from 12 to 38 times the current levels.In the US alone,the projected heat wave exposure is expected to surge between 168billion and 535billion person-days,while in the Middle East a
200、nd Africa,the exposure levels are projected to elevate within a range of 67 billion to 230billion person-days.A person-day refers to the cumulative measure of the duration of heat exposure for an individual over a single day.Itrepresents the combination of the number of people exposed to heat and th
201、e duration of their exposure,providing a unit of measurement to assess the collective impact of heatwaves on a population over a specific period.Quantifying future health and economic impactsby 2050 By the year 2050,heat waves are forecast to contribute to nearly 1.6 million fatalities,with approxim
202、ately 70%of these deaths concentrated within identified high-risk regions.Notably,South-East Asia is poised to bear a significant brunt of this distressing toll.The collective impact of heat-related diseases resulting from heat waves is projected to place an astonishing$7.1 trillion burden on the gl
203、obal economy,coupled with an adverse influence on 6.5 million DALYs.However,South-East Asia is anticipated to shoulder the mostsubstantial burden,with heat-related diseasesexpected to dump a staggering$1.8trillion cost on to the healthcare system and affect 3.0 million DALYs.Projection of health out
204、comes triggered by heat waves by 2050,cumulative 2023-2050FIGURE 17Prioritization matrix(logarithmic scale)Focus on high-impact areasPopulation impact(DALY)Economic impact($)10,000100,0001 million10 million10 billion100 billion1 trillion10 trillionUS heat-related diseasesCentral America heat-related
205、 diseasesMiddle East and Africa heat-related diseasesSouth-East Asia and India heat-related diseasesPriority 1Priority 2Priority 3Lower prioritySource:Oliver Wyman analysis Heat-related diseases resulting from heat waves are projected to place an astonishing$7.1trillion burden on healthcare systems
206、worldwide.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health26Climate event 4:tropical stormsHealth outcomesAs defined by the WMO,hurricanes,cyclones and typhoons all refer to the same meteorological phenomenon:intense rainfall accompanied by maximum sustained wind speeds near the centre of th
207、e weather system surpassing 119 kilometres per hour.While hurricanes,typhoons and cyclones refer to the same type of weather system,the naming convention varies by geographical location.Tropical storms are classified by their level of severity,according to the Saffir-Simpson scale,based on wind spee
208、d and the extent of anticipated damage upon landfall.There are five categories.category one represents storms with relatively lower wind speeds and minimal landfall damages,while category five denotes storms with extremely high wind speeds and severe landfall damage.The health implications of storms
209、 are far-reaching,with immediate concerns centred around direct fatalities and injuries.Physical harm can arise from flying debris,falling objects,structural collapses and flooding,which often result in fatalities.Exposure to storms can also contribute to a range of mental health issues,including he
210、ightened anxiety,depression and PTSD.Overview of tropical storms impact on health outcomes FIGURE 18MalnutritionFatalities and injuriesRespiratory diseasesCardiovascular diseasesMental healthClimate hazardLandscape changeHealth determinantsHealth outcomesVector habitat expansionFood securityIncrease
211、d salinityDisplacement and migrationSaltwater intrusionInfrastructure and utilities damageTropical stormsSea level riseFloodsVegetation and crop destructionCoastal erosion,soil degradationInfectious diseasesHealthWaterLand:agricultureLand:forestryInfrastructureOtherImpactSources:IPCC Sixth Assessmen
212、t Report(AR6),PubMed,UNEP,Oliver Wyman analysis Conditions in the wake of storms,such as power outages,contaminated water from stored chemicals or gasoline,downed power lines,impassable roadways,collapsed structures and food shortages,often lead to other public health-related crises.These include wa
213、terborne diseases and disruption of healthcare services.Certain studies have highlighted the connections between storms and respiratory diseases,which are often exacerbated by power outages that make it difficult to use medical equipment.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health27Proj
214、ection of health outcomes triggered by storms by 2050,cumulative 2023-2050FIGURE 19Prioritization matrix(logarithmic scale)Population impact(DALY)Economic impact($)100,0001 million10 million100 million1 billion100 billion1 trillionAsia fatalities and casualtiesAsia PTSDNorth and Central America fata
215、lities and casualtiesNorth and Central America PTSDSouth-West Pacific fatalities and casualtiesSouth-West Pacific PTSDFocus on high-impact areas10 billionPriority 1Priority 2Priority 3Lower prioritySource:Oliver Wyman analysis Older people,children,people experiencing homelessness,individuals with d
216、isabilities,people without transport and those with chronic health conditions are particularly susceptible to the destruction and physical risks from storms.These populations may face greater challenges than the general population evacuating the area in the storms path or finding adequate shelter.Th
217、e potential loss of electricity increases their vulnerability,and their physical and emotional well-being can be significantly damaged by this sense ofhelplessness.Projecting the future incidenceAsia,North and Central Americas,and the South-West Pacific Ocean region have experienced the highest inci
218、dence of storms over the past 50 years,according to the WMO Atlas of Mortality.Due to the concentration of people living near the coast in low-lying areas,Asia has witnessed the highest number of disasters and loss of life,accounting for approximately 90%of deaths globally.Within Asia,countries such
219、 as Bangladesh,Myanmar and India lead in terms of fatalities linkedto storms.It is imperative to recognize that the true toll of storms may be underestimated because of the lack of comprehensive data capturing indirect effects.This is particularly true for low-income and other vulnerable populations
220、.The future trajectory of tropical storms is cause for substantial concern.Projections suggest an approximate 10%to 15%increase in the number of storms per year by 2050,with a staggering 90%of these events expected to occur in Asia,North and Central America,and the southwest Pacific Ocean regions.Th
221、ese projections underscore the critical imperative for implementing robust preparedness and mitigation measures within these areas,emphasizing the urgent need for proactive strategies to effectively manage the escalating risks posed by severe storms.Quantifying future health and economic impacts By
222、2050,the impacts of storms on both health and local economiesare anticipated to be substantial,particularly in Asia.The health outcomes triggered by storms,including fatalities,PTSD and other serious injuries and illnesses,are projected to cost the global health system approximately$369 billion and
223、impact 44 million DALYs.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health28Overview of wildfire impact on health outcomes FIGURE 20MalnutritionRespiratory diseaseInfectious diseaseCardiovascular diseaseMental healthClimate hazardLandscape changeHealth determinantsHealth outcomesPollution,air
224、qualityIncreased temperatureWater scarity and contaminationFood insecurityDeforestationDesertificationSoil degradationInfrastructure and utilities damageWildfiresHealthWaterLand:agricultureLand:forestryInfrastructureOtherImpactAsia is expected to be the most affected region,with PTSD alone estimated
225、 to cost$85 billion to the health system and impact 24 million DALYs.Casualties in Asia are projected to add$121 billion to health system costs and 15 million DALYs.With the anticipated increase in the frequency of severe storms,regions most affected must take proactive measures and invest in health
226、care systems to fortify their resilience and mitigate the devastating impact of these natural disasters.Additionally,international collaboration and knowledge sharing can contribute to more effective storm response and recovery efforts.Climate event 5:wildfiresHealth outcomesThe profound impact of w
227、ildfires on human health and the environment is undeniable.Besides the sheer destructive force of wildfires,the release of hazardous pollutants and particulate matter during these events significantly increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.Sources:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(
228、AR6),PubMed,UNEP,Oliver Wyman analysisQuantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health29Future projections of wildfire in high-risk areas FIGURE 21WesternUSThe AmazonArctic tundraWestern AustraliaMediterranean EuropeAs seen with the other climate events,the likelihood of an increasing number
229、 of catastrophic wildfires is anticipated to surge by 20%to 33%by 2050.In the Western US,estimates suggest that 20,000 to 22,000 square kilometres of forest could succumb to wildfires by 2050,while in Mediterranean Europe,2,200 to 2,500 square kilometres of forest could face similar challenges,indic
230、ating the urgent need for comprehensive and strategic wildfire management initiatives.Exposure to smoke from fires can trigger respiratory ailments,notably asthma,especially among those directly exposed to the fumes.Simultaneously,the wind erosion of dry and degraded soils during wildfires generates
231、 airborne particles,compounding the issue of poor air quality and intensifying respiratory challenges.Moreover,the intense heat and dehydration induced by wildfires can further worsen cardiovascular conditions,potentially leading to heightened blood pressure and blood viscosity,thereby increasing th
232、e vulnerability to ischemic heart diseases(IHD).The far-reaching consequences of wildfires extend beyond physical health,encompassing the profound social and psychological impacts resulting from the loss of livelihoods,food insecurity and displacement.These factors significantly contribute to height
233、ened stress and anxiety levels among affected populations,often leading to the development of generalized anxiety disorders.Wildfires pose a significant risk to various populations,including firefighters,low-income individuals,older adults and other vulnerable,less mobile groups.They can have devast
234、ating consequences for people with disabilities,hospitalized individuals and local tribes living in forested areas.Projecting the future incidenceOver the past decade,the frequency of wildfires has surged across almost every continent globally,except Antarctica,including the Amazon,the Arctic,Austra
235、lia,the Western US,Southern Europe and parts of Africa and Asia.This notable escalation in wildfires is primarily attributed to extraordinary air temperature anomalies.On a global scale,an average of 56,000 square kilometres of land falls prey to annual wildfires,with the most intense fires document
236、ed in the Amazon rainforest,deciduous forests in Africa,and northern Australia.37 Scientific literature has pinpointed certain areas at a higher risk of experiencing more fires in general,fires that involve significant acreage and persistent weather conditions that encourage fires.Notably,these high
237、-risk regions include the Amazon,Mediterranean Europe,the Arctic tundra,WesternAustralia and the Western US.Source:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6),OECD,PubMed,UNEP,Oliver Wyman analysis The highest-risk regions for wildfires include the Amazon,Mediterranean Europe,the Arctic tundra,Western Austral
238、ia and the Western US.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health30Projection of health outcomes triggered by wildfires by 2050,cumulative 2023-2050FIGURE 22Prioritization matrix(logarithmic scale)Focus on high-impact areasPopulation impact(DALY)Economic impact($)1,00010,000100,0001 mil
239、lion10 million100 million1 million10 million100 million1 billion10 billion100 billion1 trillionWestern US asthmaWestern US GADWestern US IHD*Mediterranean Europe asthmaMediterranean Europe GADWestern Australia GADWestern Australia IHDAmazon asthmaAmazon GADAmazon IHDPriority 1Priority 2Priority 3Low
240、er priorityWestern Australia asthmaMediterranean Europe IHDProjections indicate that these health outcomes could add as much as$1.3 trillion,with a total of 207 million DALYs.Specifically,asthma is anticipated to incur costs amounting to$9.4billion and 2.1 million DALYs,while ischemic heart diseases
241、 are projected to cost$5.6 billion and add 2.9 million DALYs.However,the most substantial economic and population impacts are tied to generalized anxiety disorders.The prevalence of this type of mental illness resulting from wildfires is estimated to generate a monumental cost of$1.3 trillion and 20
242、2 million DALYs.More specifically,in the Western US,generalized anxiety disorders are estimated to cost$709 billion,with 36 million DALYs,while in Mediterranean Europe,it is projected to incur costs of$166 billion,with 18 million DALYs.Climate event 6:sea level riseHealth outcomes Sea level rise is
243、not only a threat to those living in coastal areas and the infrastructure,but it also has significant implications for human health among a broader population.Increased groundwater salinity and the expansion of vector habitats are two key factors that can trigger a rise in cardiovascular and infecti
244、ous diseases.Quantifying future health and economic impactsThe far-reaching socioeconomic implications of wildfires are substantial,especially concerning the strain they place on global healthcare systems.Health outcomes linked to wildfires,including asthma,ischemic heart diseases and generalized an
245、xiety disorders,present a significant burden on healthcare systems worldwide.Source:Oliver Wyman Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health31Overview of sea level rise impact on health outcomes FIGURE 23Mental healthFatalities and injuriesInfectious diseasesCardiovascular diseasesClima
246、te hazardLandscape changeHealth determinantsHealth outcomesIncreased salinityVector habitat expansionMigrationFood insecuritySoil degregationInfrastructure damage1Sea level riseFloodsSaltwater intrusionCoastal inundation MalnutritionHealthWaterLand:agricultureLand:forestryInfrastructureOtherImpactRi
247、sing sea levels lead to saltwater intrusion,resulting in higher concentrations of calcium,potassium and magnesium in groundwater.This can contribute to an increase in hypertension and related cardiovascular illnesses.Additionally,coastal inundation creates favourable conditions for the expansion of
248、water-based habitats of disease-carrying vectors like mosquitoes,potentially leading to higher transmission rates of infectious diseases such as malaria.Apart from the physical health risks,the mental health implications of sea level rise should not be overlooked.The gradual rise in sea level can co
249、ntribute to depression related to climate change due to the potential for displacement of communities and flooding events.The loss of homes,livelihoods and social support systems can lead to increased stress,anxiety and depression among affected individuals.Rising sea levels pose a significant threa
250、t to low-income coastal communities,especially individuals engaged in farming.These populations are disproportionately affected by increased flooding,erosion and saltwater intrusion on farms and freshwater supplies.Coastal communities are likely to face displacement and loss of livelihoods,while far
251、mers in low-lying regions are likely to experience reduced agricultural productivity.Note:1 Coastal inundation leading to death due to drowning or suffocation not included as a long-term health impact due to disease focus areas,i.e.cardiovascular,respiratory,infectious disease,malnutrition and menta
252、l health.This risk will be captured in the floods section.Sources:IPCC Sixth Assessment Report(AR6),NCCEH,National Institute of Health,Oliver Wyman analysis 32Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human HealthAll coastal areas are high-risk areas for sea level rise by 2050 and 2100;areas with
253、low HDI will see the highest health impactsFIGURE 24Overview of coastal regions identified as high-risk areas for sea level rise by 2050 and 2100Future projections of sea level rise in high-risk areasFuture extreme sea level(m):0.50.5-1.51.5-2.52.5-5.05.0-9.0To better understand potential health ris
254、ks,it is important to consider the population at risk.This approach considers the socioeconomic factors and the ability of regions to effectively respond to the challenges posed by rising sea levels.Currently,approximately 40 million people in low HDI coastal areas are exposed to sea level rise risk
255、s.However,this number is projected to increase significantly to 96.5 million by the year 2050 as more people continue to move to the coasts and more coast is affected by rising sea levels.38 Quantifying future health and economic impactsSea level rise is expected to have a significant impact on coas
256、tal areas,particularly in terms of hypertension-related health outcomes.By the year 2050,the rise in sea levels is projected to contribute to an increase of more than 800,000 in hypertension cases in low HDI coastal areas.Projecting the future incidence Global sea levels are projected to rise signif
257、icantly by the year 2100,with estimates ranging from 0.3 to 1.1 metres compared to current levels,depending on emissions scenarios.This increase in sea levels will have a profound impact on coastal populations,potentially doubling the number of people exposed to sea level rise.While the exact estima
258、tes vary for different regions at risk,research suggests that the greatest impact on human health will be felt in low human development index(HDI)coastal areas.These regions often face challenges in terms of migration,mitigation,adaptation and support,making them more vulnerable to the health impact
259、s of sea level rise.Sources:Kirezci et al.,Nicholls et al.,Romanello et al.,Oliver Wyman analysisQuantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health33Projection of health outcomes triggered by sea level rise by 2050,cumulative 2023-2050FIGURE 25Prioritization matrix(logarithmic scale)Economic i
260、mpact($)1 million10 million100 million1 billion100 million1 billion10 billion100 billionAsia hypertensionAfrica hypertensionSouth America hypertensionPacific hypertensionPopulation impact(DALY)Priority 1Priority 2Priority 3Lower priorityThe consequences of hypertension in these vulnerable coastal re
261、gions are not only limited to individual health but also have significant economic implications.It is estimated that the healthcare system will bear a cost of approximately$73billion in addressing hypertension-related issues in low HDI coastal areas.Additionally,the impact on DALYs is projected to b
262、e substantial,affecting approximately 193 million DALYs.Source:Oliver Wyman analysisQuantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health34Building climate-resilient health systems3Healthcare executives and policy-makers need to focus on prevention,recovery and innovation.Quantifying the Impact o
263、f Climate Change on Human Health35A framework for developingsolutions Healthcare leaders worldwide need to encourage models of care and flexible infrastructures to build resilience for the anticipated increases in climate-related morbidity and mortality.They must also support regional policy-makers
264、to address adapted strategic plans emphasizing healthcare system capacity and agility.Due to the substantial risk that climate change poses to local,regional and global health,it is important to explore solutions that address the needs of the healthcare infrastructure and resources at all three leve
265、ls.The climate-resilient health systems framework(see Figure 26)foresees that healthcare systems will need to develop or improve on two important areas:1)resistance,the ability to prevent,reduce or delay climate changes impact on humans,and 2)recovery,providing fast stabilization of the affected pop
266、ulations and healthcare infrastructure and effective treatment of long-term consequences.3.1 Resistance and recovery,the two key pillars for sustainable health systemsClimate-resilient health systems frameworkFIGURE 26Health system resistance capabilityHealth system recovery capabilityAvoidance(miti
267、gation)Evade or delay a health impact or climate event entirely,for example:Eliminate health impact once climate event occursEliminate root cause of the climate eventClimate eventStabilization(first response)Return to health(treatment)Containment(adaptation)RationaleRelative populationhealth1 Reduce
268、 health impact and minimize time before start of the recovery phase,for example:Prepare healthcare services for the health impactAnticipate and monitor health impactStabilize and minimize impact for affected population,for example:Emergency treatment to reduce risk of long term health consequences a
269、nd mortalityReturn to steady-state population health,for example:TimeMonitor for continuous treatment of diseasesMaking health systems resistant to climatechangeTo construct a climate-resilient healthcare sector and delivery system,communities must focus on effectiveness and accessibility as top str
270、ategic objectives.These can include adaptation planning,infrastructure resilience,disease surveillance and response,capacity building,innovative research and development,continuous evidence gathering and policy integration.As described in chapter 2,health outcomes based on climate events were resear
271、ched,and adaptation/preparedness measures were identified to address these outcomes.These can include forecasting activities such as novel therapeutic and diagnostic development or ensuring enhanced access and production capacities in anticipation of increased demand for the treatment of climate-rel
272、ated conditions.A key way to implement preventative measures is also to increase capacity building,knowledge transfer and community involvement,especially for vulnerable and hard-to-reach populations.Note:1 Versus steady-state without climate event.Source:Oliver Wyman analysisQuantifying the Impact
273、of Climate Change on Human Health36Enhancing the capability of health systems torecover from climate impactsThe second element of resilience is the ability to recover fast from climate events.Health systems need the ability to stabilise shocks and crisis situations and recover from both acute and lo
274、nger-term climate events and related health impacts.Prioritizing recovery to a pre-disaster state ensures that health systems can address ongoing community needs as well as manage the health consequences of climate events.This can include the development of innovative treatments for infectious disea
275、ses,drug delivery innovations and preparedness planning of emergency services in anticipation of climate events.Together,these two pillars form the foundation of climate-resilient health systems.By combining proactive resistance measures with robust recovery strategies,health systems can more effect
276、ively mitigate the impact of climate change on public health,safeguard the well-being of communities and promote a sustainable healthcare infrastructure.Additionally,by implementing solutions that increase resilience,healthcare systems can enhance their ability to respond to disasters and ensure con
277、tinuity of care in the face of climate challenges.Developing innovative solutions Developing solutions for climate-resilient health systems will require coordination among all stakeholders and the identification of risk factors.These include sharing data and knowledge on conditions and impacts as we
278、ll as active collaboration across private sectors,both geographically and by focus area.The importance of early warning systemsTechnology and media can play a big role during disasters,helping stakeholders set up early warning systems and pushing out alerts and educational materials to affected comm
279、unities.For instance,the deployment of the Hot Weather-Health Watch/Warning System in the United States from 1995 to 1998 provided early warning in the instance of heat waves and helped save hundreds of lives for a fractional dollar cost.39 More recent digital public health campaigns around vaccinat
280、ions offer another example of how organizations can reach large numbers of people as they did during COVID-19.40 Companies,such as Google,are pitching in to provide crisis alerts and forecasts for floods,wildfires and hurricanes.41For many diseases,including malaria and dengue,there is always an urg
281、ent need for reliable and rapid diagnostic tests.As warmer temperatures and increased humidity encourage the growth and spread of mosquito populations,community data collection,accurate geographic information system forecasting and mosquito monitoring,can help indicate a future outbreak.These early
282、warning systems trigger timely public health responses that can include larvae control,released male Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes,distribution of bed nets,diagnostic availability,preventative and treatment therapeutics.Role of healthcare and life sciences organizationsAs major stakeholders and prim
283、ary solutions providers,companies in the health and life sciences industry need to recognize the importance of ongoing innovative research and development to meet the growing demand for solutions to diseases and conditions aggravated by climate change,such as infectious and vector-borne diseases as
284、well as respiratory and cardiovascular ailments.Collaboration with healthcare providers and regulatory bodies is also essential to ensure the timely availability and uptake of these solutions.In turn,pharmaceutical and medical device and technology companies will require sound economic incentives an
285、d stable funding over the long term to help them commit the necessary resources to research and development for medicines and vaccines for underdeveloped or even undeveloped markets.They may also need support to ensure sufficient production capacity to avoid shortages aproblem that developed during
286、past epidemics.Technology and media can play a big role during disasters,helping stakeholders set up early warning systems for affected communities.37Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health Avoidance Hospitals and clinicsPublic sector(e.g.MoH)Intergovernmental organizations(e.g.WHO)
287、PharmaMedtechResistanceContainmentStabilization Return to health Preventive education for vulnerable population Preventive treatments for patients at risk where applicable Diagnostic tools and procedures(e.g.to identify mental issues)Access to patients(e.g.with mobile clinics in emerging countries)B
288、road offering of treatment options Continuous resource training and up-skilling with latest treatment Preparedness plan of emergency services Access to effective vaccines and preventive medicine(e.g.for malaria)Research of innovative preventive treatments Access to medication for various medical con
289、ditions and related complications Research of innovative treatments for unmet needs(e.g.against resistant pathogens)Preventive smart solutions(e.g.wearable sensors for heat stress prevention,outbreaks prediction)Improved diagnostics(e.g.,quick,portable,more precise)Monitoring devices for diagnostics
290、(e.g.wearables,apps)Drug delivery innovation(e.g.automated delivery,long-lasting medication)Health monitoring devices to track treatment efficiency and complications Regular public awareness campaigns on health risks and response strategy Climate forecasting systems to issue warnings and prepare ade
291、quate system response Community empowerment(e.g.education,volunteers organization,leaders involvement)City infrastructure(e.g.shadowed areas and green zones to reduce heat island effect)Public sector coordination and response plan Public measures to protect population from potential health impact(e.
292、g.larviciding for vector control)Knowledge creation and sharing to increase stakeholder awareness of health risks and response strategies Support vulnerable communities directly on the ground Knowledge transfer to local communities Coordination with gov agencies,other NGOs and international organiza
293、tions for effective response to climate impact on healthRecoveryAt the same time,focus on new preventative smart solutions and increased speed to market are needed,including work on improved diagnostics,monitoring devices and drug delivery systems to ensure coverage for climate-related conditions su
294、ch as heat-related diseases and infections,respiratory and cardiovascular ailments and infectious diseases.These advancements will enable early detection and intervention,leading to better health outcomes.Increasing access to technology and reducing its cost will be critical to addressing health imp
295、act in developing countries.Overview of solution approaches employed by various healthcare providers FIGURE 27The role of governments and the public sector to drive innovation and support the transitionPublic sector participation is vital when it comes to raising awareness about health risks associa
296、ted with climate change.For instance,support from agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)in the US was instrumental in developing robust public awareness campaigns during the COVID-19 pandemic.42 Similar approaches are ongoing and encouraged to address climate-related he
297、alth impact visibility and awareness from both the public and private sectors.Examples include the WHO Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate and Health(ATACH),the WHO National Adaptation Plans(NAP),43 Fridays for Future,the ClimaHealth platform by the WHO and WMO,as well as important work ca
298、rried out by the Rockefeller Foundation,Wellcome Trust,ClimateWorks Foundation,the Forum for the Future and the Global Institute for Disease Elimination.443.2 Why policies and incentives need to change to enable climate-resilient health systemsSource:Oliver Wyman analysisQuantifying the Impact of Cl
299、imate Change on Human Health38Government support is a key factor,as demonstrated during the pandemic.The public sector was vital in keeping hospitals and clinics operating through subsidies and underwriting the cost of protective gear and medicines.45 The US government spent more than$30 billion to
300、support research,development and production of the COVID-19 vaccine.46 Another area where public support is required is in necessary infrastructure upgrades to ensure their resilience in the face of climate-and weather-related challenges.This will be especially vital in high-risk geographies.The pub
301、lic sectors involvement tends to ensure a comprehensive approach to health preparedness in which innovation,paired with private-sector involvement,becomes a driving force behind timely responses to evolving health challenges.Rapid and effective collaboration will be key to meeting the challenges of
302、climate-related health conditions.Even so,private-sector financing is crucial given the variety of capital sources from which it can draw,including sources not usually available to governments or non-governmental organizations(NGOs).For example,in 2020,Bank of America issued a$1 billion environmenta
303、l,social and governance(ESG)bond to lend to not-for-profit hospitals,nursing homes and manufacturers of healthcare equipment.47 Additionally,the private sector is armed with operational know-how regarding the production and delivery of therapeutics.This expertise enables private entities to provide
304、a range of proactive responses to evolving health challenges.The remarkable aspect is often the scalability of these solutions,transcending industry boundaries and geographic borders.Making use of their access to substantial financial capital and commercial and manufacturing savvy,the private sector
305、 can emerge as a catalyst in creating and scaling innovative solutions to address the health impact ofclimate change.Yet companies will also face challenges,at least initially,that may limit an innovations commercial viability.To overcome these hurdles,government incentives can be instrumental in en
306、couraging private-sector involvement in undertaking difficult but necessary projects.This is where the strategic allocation of funds becomes a defining force for resilience,and coordination between public and private sectors is pivotal to ensure that funds are invested where most needed and not only
307、 where the return is the best.Incentives act as a bridge,encouraging this collaboration and amplifying efforts to address the health implications of climate change on a broader scale.A workable comparison would be with their use to cultivate new therapeutics to treat rare diseases.These conditions a
308、ffect roughly 4%of the global population and require a multiyear development and approval process.48 Many of these diseases do not have a treatment today and would not be addressed at all without technological advancements,an increase in the number of cases,or external incentives.Chagas is a vector-
309、borne disease that mainly afflicts low-income communities in the Americas.It affects up to seven million people today and causes 14,000 deaths annually.There would probably not be a treatment for it were it not for the US Orphan Drug Designation programme,which was used several years ago to underwri
310、te the development of benznidazole.49 The US Food and Drug Administration(FDA)granted it priority review and orphan product designation.Due to the disease being vector-borne,the number of Chagas cases isexpected to rise due to the changing climate.Coordination between public and private sectors is p
311、ivotal to ensure funds are invested where most needed and not only where the return is the best.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health39Incentives to drive private sectorparticipationFour crucial incentives will drive action by the private sector:direct economic incentives,financia
312、l enablement,regulation and awareness.Direct economic incentives play a crucial role in motivating the private sector to enhance preparedness for climate change.These incentives encompass such tools as tax credits,subsidies,research grants and implementation grants.Governments,NGOs and financial ins
313、titutions can use these direct economic incentives to channel funds towards initiatives aimed at mitigating the impact of climate change on health.The Bill&Melinda Gates Foundation and similar NGOs often assume the role of allocating funds,aggregating resources from diverse sources and strategically
314、 directing them to private sector projects deemed impactful and prudent.Finance enablement levers serve as another mechanism to drive private sector behaviour.This category includes tools like loan subsidies and government guarantees.The aim of this strategy is to enable private capital owners to in
315、vest in projectsgeared towards reducing the climate impact on health.By offering these levers,governments partially offset investor risks associated with uncertainty about future development scenarios and potential technology limitations,making it more attractive for private entities to invest in he
316、alth-focused climate initiatives.The use of regulation is another potential motivator for the private sector and can involve stricter rules that,for instance,mandate the use of a new product or a loosening to encourage participation.For instance,these levers could include fast approval processes for
317、 necessary treatments,patent protection and clinical trial support to spurinnovation.There is also an opportunity for more disclosure requirements on climate-related health impacts,which often lead to public pressure for government and private sector action.That was the case during the COVID-19 pand
318、emic when rising,publicly-announced death rates prompted demands for a vaccine and incentivized people to get vaccinated once it was available.Hospitals,for example,could be required to report mortality from certain climate-related diseases for tracking purposes.Obligatory health-impact reduction ta
319、rgets could further provide requirements to prepare for the health impact of climate change.This could also be part of a broader topic of addressing social determinants of health,which is already required within the Medicare programme in the US.50 Regulation levers like targets can propel the privat
320、esector towards proactive measures in preparing for climate-change-induced healthimpact.Finally,awareness itself serves as a powerful incentive.This involves the preparation of public reports that prioritize areas with the highest impact,shedding light on critical health challenges of climate change
321、.Broad dissemination of informationand best practices not only raise awareness about pressing health issues,but they cultivate a collaborative environment where diverse entities can unite to tackle the evolving challenges.Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health40Tools to incentivize
322、 adequate and timely private-sector investmentTABLE 1Category Incentive types Institution Description Examples Direct economic incentives Tariffs,taxes and subsidies Governments Reducing taxes or introducing subsidies for products that have a proven effect on addressing climate healthimpact US Orpha
323、n Drug Act(1983)provides companies with upto 50%tax credits to cover research costs for orphan diseases.51Research or implementation grants Governments/NGOs/supranational Research grant for innovative solutions search to climate change impact on health The US National Institute of Environmental Heal
324、th Sciences(NIEHS)provides exploratory grants of up to$2.3million to examine the health impacts of climate change and to develop solutions.52Direct funds Governments/NGOs/supranational International fund for disease outbreak control in priority areas The Global Fund allocates up to$5 billion annuall
325、y to fight malaria,human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)and tuberculosis(TB)though a partnership fundingmodel.53Finance enablement Loan subsidies Governments/supranational Government-subsidized free-interest loans for selected climate change health impact solutions European Green Deal Investment Plan in
326、cludes 25-30 billion public sector loan facility.54Government guarantees Governments Government guarantees for innovative solution start-ups who are seeking to attract funding The government of Sweden offers more than$2 billion worth of guarantees for largegreen industrial investment projects.55 Awa
327、reness building Public reports NGOs/supranational Report by an NGO with climate health impact prioritization,targets definition and recommended actions The WHOs 2014 report,Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death,2030s and 2050s.56 Conferences NGOs/s
328、upranational Annual summit on climatehealth impact to discuss latest innovations and progress American Meteorological Society Annual Conference on Environment and Health.57 Regulation Reporting/disclosure requirements Governments/NGOs/supranational/payers Requirement for hospitals to disclose statis
329、tics on morbidity and mortality rates for selected climate-related diseases EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive:carbon footprint reporting requirements.58Obligatory impact reduction targets Governments/supranational Requirement for hospitals to establish targets on reduction of mortality
330、 forselected climate-related diseases UK legally binding net-zero target under the Climate Change Act 2008.59Simplified approval process Governments Priority review and support with clinical trial support to improve success chances and reduce time to market United States Food and Drug Administration
331、(FDA)Tropical Disease Priority Review Voucher System reduces review process from 10 to six months for prioritized treatments.60 Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health41Best practices for a life sciences and public sector collaboration on climateThere have been some important preced
332、ents set on how to tackle major public health crises that can now provide powerful tools for tackling the health impact of climate change.In the US,the Orphan Drug Act of 1983 is a pivotal example of healthcare legislation that specifically addresses the pharmaceutical industrys problem of reaching
333、a profitable commercial scale when a markets size is limited and anticipated sales will not cover development costs.61 It introduced compelling incentives,including a seven-year market exclusivity for drugs treating orphan diseases,irrespective of patent status.To further stimulate research and development,the law offers tax credits of up to 50%for associated expenses.The United States Food and Dr