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1、Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making thei

2、r investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group,Inc.EQUITYRESEARCH|May 01,2024|10:04PM CESTLisa Yang +44(2

3、0)7552-3713 Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE-Paris Branch Eric Sheridan +1(917)343-8683 Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Full list of authors insideStephen Laszczyk +1(212)357-9225 Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Minami Munakata+81 3 6437-9830 Goldman Sachs Japan Co.,Ltd.Music in the AirFocus onmonetisation,Emerging Markets a

4、nd AI;updating global music industry forecasts2023 was a turning point for the music industry in many respects,marked by the first ever major price increase by global streaming platforms,the modernisation of outdated royalty payment structures and the deployment of Generative AI.We expect to see fur

5、ther progress in these areas in 2024 and beyond,including:(i)a second round of headline price increases and/or product-led price increases;(ii)the launch of new super premium plans catering to superfans;(iii)the adoption of artist-centric payment models by more streaming platforms;and(iv)the develop

6、ment of a framework and monetisation avenue for the use of music content by Generative AI models,either through the first commercial licensing agreements between tech companies and rights holders or through establishing legal precedents.As the monetisation of paid subscription improves,we believe th

7、ere is also an opportunity to better monetise the vast pool of freemium users and evolve the ad-supported offering to improve paid conversion rates.We update our global music industry forecasts,overall raising our 2024-30E CAGR slightly to+7.6%,reflecting a stronger outlook for the live music and mu

8、sic publishing segments.In recorded music,our raised physical sales assumptions are offset by reduced ad-supported streaming growth(partly reflecting more limited upside from TikTok monetisation)and the faster subscription revenue mix shift towards Emerging Markets,which we analyse in more detail in

9、 this report.Overall,we see future industry dynamics and positive developments around monetisation as supportive for our global music industry coverage.NoteNote:The following is a redacted version of the original report published May 1,2024 75 pages.AUTHORSAUTHORSLisa Yang+44(20)7552-3713 Goldman Sa

10、chs Bank Europe SE-Paris BranchJames Tate+44 20 7774-3705 Goldman Sachs InternationalEric Sheridan+1(917)343-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCStephen Laszczyk+1(212)357-9225 Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCMinami Munakata+81 3 6437-Goldman Sachs Japan Co.,Ltd.Eric Cha+82 2 3788-Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Seoul BranchLane Czu

11、ra+1 917 343-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCDiane Kang+82 2 3788-Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Seoul BranchAntares Tobelem+1 212 357-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCLincoln Kong,CFA+852 2978-Goldman Sachs(Asia)L.L.C.Michael Ng,CFA+1 212 902-Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCPM Summary 3 Raise global music industry forecasts by c.10%on stro

12、nger 2023 and slightly raised 2024-30E CAGR of 7.6%6 Entering a new era of improving music monetisation 17 Modernising of the streaming payout model underway 27 Emerging Markets to drive next phase of streaming growth&capture greater investments 31 Generative AI:music industry largely aligned as reg

13、ulation begins to emerge but IP protection risks remain 37 Ad-supported streaming market maturing;lower monetisation upside from emerging platforms 41 1 May 2024 2Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirTabl e of Contents PM Summary 2023 was a turning point for the music industry in many respects,marked by th

14、e first ever major price increase by global streaming platforms,the modernisation of outdated royalty payment structures and the deployment of Generative AI.We expect to see further progress in these areas in 2024 and beyond,including:(i)a second round of headline price increases and/or product-led

15、price increases;(ii)the launch of new super premium plans catering to superfans;(iii)the adoption of artist-centric payment models by more streaming platforms;and(iv)the development of a framework and monetisation avenue for the use of music content by Generative AI models,either through the first c

16、ommercial licensing agreements between tech companies and rights holders or through establishing legal precedents.Raise global music industry forecasts on stronger live and publishing outlook We update our global music industry forecasts,overall raising our 2024-30E CAGR to+7.6%(from+7.4%)and absolu

17、te estimates for 2030 by 12%.This reflects a strongeroutlook for the live music(2030 estimates raised by 31%)and music publishingsegments(2030 estimates raised by 4%),whilst our recorded music forecasts arereduced modestly(-1%in 2030)as higher physical sales assumptions are offset byreduced streamin

18、g growth forecasts across ad-funded(reflecting more limited upsidefrom TikTok and a more mature online video market)and paid(reflecting an increasedrevenue mix shift towards lower ARPU emerging markets).Entering a new era of improved music monetisation:headline price increases,extra product/feature

19、monetisation,super premium plans catering to superfans Whilst global streaming services have implemented their first ever round of major price increases over the past 18 months,we believe that music streaming subscriptions continue to offer good value for consumers(in fact,the average revenue per st

20、ream fell by 10%yoy in 2023),with monetisation lagging that of the video streaming industry(SVOD)by about 10 years.Future rounds of price increases may take the form of headline price increases across all plans or more nuanced product or feature-led price increases(e.g.charging for audiobooks or Hi-

21、Fi audio,or the launch of new super premium plans catering to superfans).We continue to model a c.3%average annual price increase within our streaming revenue forecasts for developed markets,whilst we see 13%incremental revenue uplift potential from the monetisation of superfans by 2030.As the monet

22、isation of paid subscription improves,we believe that there is also an opportunity to better monetise the vast pool of freemium users and evolve the ad-supported offering to improve paid conversion rates.1 May 2024 3Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirModernising of the streaming payout model underway but

23、 no immediate financial impact As the volume of new tracks uploaded onto streaming services continues to grow(rising 11%yoy again in 2023),with Generative AI likely to further accelerate this trend,we believe that the traditional pro rata streaming payout model between DSPs and labels will need to b

24、e modernised.We see the changes recently introduced by Deezer and Spotify as a positive step in this regard,and would expect other streaming services to follow in the coming year.We do not assume an immediate financial benefit for the major music companies,but have gained more confidence in their ab

25、ility to offset future potential dilution from fraud and noise(including gen AI created content).Emerging Markets driving next phase of subscription streaming growth and reshaping royalty distribution and capital allocation priorities We estimate that EM contributed 60%of net subscriber additions in

26、 2023,and forecast this share to rise to 70%by 2030.The growing mix shift towards EM has major implications for future industry growth,distribution of royalties and capital allocation priorities amongst major industry participants.In particular,we note that(i)EM ARPU is c.4x lower than in DM,(ii)pai

27、d conversions are low with a vast and growing pool offreemium users that could switch over time,(iii)the competitive landscape is morefragmented,with the major music companies commanding a lower market share than inDM,and(iv)local non-English acts are taking share domestically and internationally.As

28、 aresult,we believe that the major music companies will deploy more resources andcapital to grow their share of local acts and local music markets over the coming years,through signing more local acts(e.g.scaling local A&R teams),distribution agreementswith local labels(which are low risk but low ma

29、rgin)and acquisitions(e.g.WMGs recentinterest in Believe).Generative AI:towards a new framework and monetisation avenue for the use of music I P?We believe that the past 12 months have largely allayed initial fears around the impact of Generative AI for music labels.We have seen broad alignment acro

30、ss the major industry participants in limiting AI deepfakes and ensuring a controlled deployment of the new technology,while the flood of new AI generated content onto streaming services has not yet materialised.That said,we believe the industry is still in an experimental phase,new gen AI music sta

31、rt-ups are proliferating and the protection of music copyrights remains a challenge.We look for the first commercial licensing agreements between tech companies and rights holders and rulings on major pending lawsuits to help establish a clearer framework and monetisation avenue for the use of music

32、 content by Generative AI models.1 May 2024 4Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirMarket share shifts amongst record labels and DSPs Market share for the top 3 major labels remained broadly stable in 2023,with Sony Music gaining c.0.3ppt share,mainly at the expense of WMG,while UMG and independents shares

33、were broadly unchanged,based on our calculations.Meanwhile,bigger competitive shifts are taking place in the distribution landscape,with Spotify regaining market share for the first time and YouTube continuing to be the major gainer globally,largely at the expense of local streaming services,Apple M

34、usic and Amazon Music.Tencent Music and NetEase in China continue to see strong subscriber momentum and count more subscribers than Apple Music and Amazon Music combined globally.1 May 2024 5Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirRaise gl obal music industry forecasts by c.10%on stronger 2023 and sl ightl y

35、raised 2024-30E CAGR of 7.6%We update our global music industry model following the publication of the 2023 recorded music market figures from IFPI,and reflecting the latest trends and datapoints.The global music market(recorded,publishing and live)grew faster than expected in 2023,up 15%yoy(GSe+7%y

36、oy),driven by stronger than expected growth in live music(we estimate+25%yoy,leaving the market c.20%above 2019 levels),and better than expected growth in recorded music and music publishing(+10%/+11%yoy respectively).We forecast global music industry revenues to grow at+7.9%yoy in 2024(+7.8%prior),

37、with a return to more normalised live music growth of+6.0%yoy(+5.0%prior),solid recorded music growth of+8.9%yoy(+9.3%prior)and publishing growth of+9.2%yoy(+8.5%prior).Our 2024-30E industry revenues increase by c.10%onaverage on the back of a higher 2023 base,as well as a slightly raised 2024-30E C

38、AGRof+7.6%(+7.4%prior).The improved growth outlook is mainly driven by a higher musicpublishing CAGR of+7.8%(+7.6%prior)and live music CAGR of+6.6%(+5.0%prior),partly offset by a slightly lower recorded music CAGR of+8.1%(+8.6%prior).Withinrecorded music,we lower our streaming growth forecasts to a

39、10%CAGR(+11%prior),mainly reflecting lower ad-funded and emerging platform revenues assumptions,as wellas a faster subscription revenue mix shift towards EM.We discuss these forecasts ingreater detail below.1 May 2024 6Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirExhibit 1:We expect the global music industry to gr

40、ow revenues+7.9%yoy in 2024,and sustain this growth rate thereafter Gl obal music market(recorded,publ ishing,l ive)breakdown($bn,LHS),%growth(RHS)0%1%1%-2%0%-2%1%2%-1%5%-3%-3%3%1%-7%0%1%3%6%7%8%5%-30%35%27%15%8%8%8%8%7%7%7%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020406080020002001200

41、220032004200520062007200820092000002220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E$bnRecorded MusicMusic PublishingLive Music%changeSource:Music and Copyright,Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IFPI Global Music Report 2024 Exhibit 2:We rais

42、e our global music market forecasts(based on net revenues)over 2024-30 by c.10%on average,mainly driven by live music while our recorded music forecasts are broadly unchanged New vs.ol d forecasts 2030ENewOldNewOldNewOldNewOld20232024E2025E2030EGlobal Music Market($bn)*$98.3$92.0$106.0$99.2$114.8$10

43、7.1$163.7$151.47%7%7%8%Global Music Market($bn)*$70.8$65.1$76.1$69.8$82.4$75.1$116.5$104.49%9%10%12%Recorded Music Market($bn)*$28.6$28.2$31.2$30.8$33.9$33.7$49.5$50.12%1%1%-1%Music Publishing Market($bn)*$9.0$8.8$9.9$9.6$10.7$10.4$15.3$14.73%3%3%4%Live Music Market($bn)*$33.1$28.1$35.1$29.5$37.7$31

44、.0$51.7$39.518%19%22%31%Recorded Music Physical($bn)*$5.1$4.5$5.2$4.4$5.5$4.3$6.4$3.914%20%28%65%Performance($bn)*$2.7$2.6$2.9$2.7$3.1$2.9$4.0$3.65%7%9%11%Sync($bn)*$0.6$0.7$0.7$0.7$0.8$0.8$1.0$1.0-8%-4%-2%-1%Download($bn)*$0.9$0.8$0.8$0.6$0.7$0.5$0.3$0.220%28%36%84%StreamingStreaming Market($bn)*$3

45、7.6$38.4$42.0$43.7$46.4$49.0$73.0$80.3-2%-4%-5%-9%Streaming Market($bn)*$19.3$19.6$21.5$22.4$23.9$25.2$37.8$41.4-2%-4%-5%-9%Paid Streaming Market($bn)*$26.4$26.9$29.8$30.2$33.0$33.5$49.7$51.7-2%-1%-1%-4%Ad funded Streaming Market($bn)*$11.2$11.5$12.3$13.5$13.4$15.5$23.3$28.6-2%-9%-13%-19%Paid Subscr

46、ibers(mn)6676637497388248111,2051,2001%2%2%0%Developed Market(mn)3673842558579-4%-3%-3%-4%Emerging Market(mn)3002823503253943706476216%7%7%4%Annual ARPU($)*$42.2$43.0$42.0$43.1$42.0$43.3$42.6$44.6-2%-2%-3%-5%2023%change2024E2025E*Net revenues(i.e.record label or publisher share;t ot al re

47、venues f rom t icket sales and sponsorship f or Live Music);*Gross revenues Source:Music&Copyright,Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IFPI Global Music Report 20241 May 2024 7Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirExhibit 3:Our growth forecasts are slightly raised on higher assumptions f

48、or live music and publishing New vs.ol d forecasts%growth rates2030ENewOldNewOldNewOldNewOld20232024E2025E2030EGlobal Music Market*14.8%7.2%7.9%7.8%8.3%7.7%7.1%7.1%7.6pp0.1pp0.6pp0.0ppGlobal Music Market*16.8%7.0%7.6%7.3%8.2%7.3%7.0%6.7%9.8pp0.3pp0.9pp0.2ppRecorded Music Market*10.2%7.5%8.9%9.3%8.8%

49、9.1%7.4%8.2%2.7pp-0.4pp-0.3pp-0.8ppMusic Publishing Market*10.9%8.2%9.2%8.5%8.6%8.7%7.2%6.6%2.7pp0.7pp-0.1pp0.6ppLive Music Market*25.0%6.0%6.0%5.0%7.5%5.0%6.5%5.0%19.0pp1.0pp2.5pp1.5ppRecorded Music Physical*13.4%-2.4%3.1%-2.6%4.1%-1.9%3.2%-1.0%15.8pp5.7pp6.1pp4.2ppPerformance*9.5%5.0%7.0%5.0%7.0%5

50、.0%5.0%5.0%4.5pp2.0pp2.0pp0.0ppSync*4.7%7.0%10.0%6.0%9.0%6.0%5.0%5.0%-2.3pp4.0pp3.0pp0.0ppDownload*-2.6%-20.0%-15.0%-20.0%-15.0%-20.0%-15.0%-20.0%17.4pp5.0pp5.0pp5.0ppStreamingStreaming Market*10.3%11.9%11.6%13.9%10.4%12.1%8.8%9.8%-1.6pp-2.3pp-1.7pp-1.0ppStreaming Market*10.4%12.0%11.7%13.8%11.0%12.

51、4%8.8%9.8%-1.6pp-2.1pp-1.4pp-1.0ppPaid Streaming Market*11.2%12.6%12.7%12.2%10.9%11.0%7.4%8.1%-1.4pp0.5pp-0.1pp-0.7ppAd funded Streaming Market*8.2%10.3%9.1%18.0%9.1%14.8%12.0%13.2%-2.1pp-8.9pp-5.7pp-1.2ppPaid Subscribers 14.2%12.5%12.3%11.4%10.0%9.9%6.7%7.2%1.7pp1.0pp0.1pp-0.5pp Developed Market 10

52、.8%9.6%8.9%8.3%7.6%7.0%4.4%5.0%1.2pp0.7pp0.6pp-0.6pp Emerging Market18.7%16.7%16.5%15.5%12.8%13.6%8.7%9.3%2.0pp1.0pp-0.8pp-0.6ppAnnual ARPU-2.9%-1.3%-0.4%0.2%-0.2%0.4%0.5%0.8%-1.6pp-0.6pp-0.5pp-0.3pp20232024E%change2025E*Net revenues(i.e.record label or publisher share;t ot al revenues f rom t icket

53、 sales and sponsorship f or Live Music);*Gross revenues Source:Music&Copyright,Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IFPI Global Music Report 2024Exhibit 4:2023 recorded music market growth was c.3ppt better than we expected,mainly driven by Physical,Performance and Download,while

54、Streaming growth came in 1.6ppt below our expectations Gl obal recorded music constant currency growth in 2023%cc growth ratesActual GSeRecorded Music 10.2%7.5%2.7ppStreaming Market 10.4%12.0%-1.6ppPhysical 13.4%-2.4%15.8ppPerformance 9.5%5.0%4.5ppSync4.7%7.0%-2.3ppDownload-2.6%-20.0%17.4ppActual vs

55、 GSe(%)2023Source:Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IFPI Global Music Report 20241 May 2024 8Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirRecorded Music:expect ongoing solid growth trends but with different revenue mix 2023 global recorded music growth came 2.7ppt ahead of our expectations IFPI released it

56、s Global Music Report earlier this year,confirming another strong year of growth for the global recorded music market;this was up by 10.2%yoy in constant currency,ahead of our prior expectations of 7.5%yoy,to reach a total value of$28.6bn in 2023,which was 2%ahead of our$28.2bn forecast.Most segment

57、s came in ahead of our expectations,with the exception of streaming and sync.Physical sales grew+13%yoy(GSe-2%prior),helped by strong growth in vinyl and CD sales(+15%/+14%yoy respectively),which has largely been driven by serving superfans.Performance rights grew+c.10%yoy(GSe+5%prior),benefiting fr

58、om the continued Covid reopening(public performance revenues grew+17%yoy),while Downloads&Other Digital were down-c.3%(GSe-20%prior),marking the slowest rate of decline for the format since 2013,supported by strong growth in mobile personalisation and other revenues.Sync growth decelerated to+5%(GSe

59、+7%prior)on the back of record growth in 2022 and the impact from the US writers and actors strike.Subscription streaming growth came in weaker than expected(+11.2%vs.GSe+12.6%prior)mainly owing to lower paid streaming ARPU(-2.9%yoy in 2023 vs.GSe-1.3%),whilst the number of paid streaming users came

60、 in marginally higher than expected(667mn vs.GSe 663mn prior).Overall,the paid streaming market added+83mn new subscribers in 2023,compared with+75mn/+92mn in 2022/21,and in line with the average pace of net adds across 2019-20.Whilst the rate of ARPU decline improved(-2.9%yoy in 2023 vs.-7%yoy in 2

61、022),helped by headline price increases by major platforms through the year,we believe that the miss vs.our forecasts reflected:(i)the ongoing negative ARPU mix shift towards emerging markets,which accounted for c.60%of 2023 subscriber growth(we estimate EM ARPU is 4x lower than that of DM)and(ii)on

62、going dilution from family plans and bundles.Ad-supported streaming was alsoweaker than our expectations(+8.2%vs.GSe+10.3%prior),due to(i)a slower thanexpected recovery in the global advertising market and(ii)a lower growth contributionfrom emerging platforms such as TikTok,YouTube Shorts and Instag

63、ram Reels(+15.3%yoy vs GSe:25%,a marked deceleration from+30.9%/+41.3%yoy in 2022/21).Recorded music forecasts remain broadly unchanged as lower streaming forecasts are more than offset by higher growth elsewhere For 2024/25,we slightly lower our recorded music growth forecasts to 8.9%/8.8%yoy respe

64、ctively(vs.9.3%/9.1%prior).We lower our 2024/25 streaming(subscription&ad-supported)revenue growth forecasts,expecting streaming revenue(record label share)growth of+11.7.%/+11.0%yoy in 2024/25(+13.8%/+12.4%prior),mainly due to lower ad-supported streaming revenues as we reflect the impact of the UM

65、G/TikTok dispute and a more gradual recovery in video advertising,as well as an accelerated subscription revenue mix shift towards EM.This still represents an improvement on the 2023 growth of+10.4%,mainly driven by the Spotify headline price increases(three quarters of the contribution in 2024).1 M

66、ay 2024 9Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirFor 2024-2030,we now forecast an+8.1%revenue CAGR(+8.6%prior),with the main assumptions detailed below:Paid streaming:Our revenue forecasts decrease by 4%over 2024-30,mainlyndue to the lower 2023 base(2%miss)and lower ARPU assumptions(related tothe EM/DM shift)

67、to reach$49.7bn/$26.3bn(gross/net)in 2030.This implies a+9.4%CAGR 2024-30(+9.8%prior).Within the mix,we broadly maintain our paidsubscriber forecasts at 1.205bn in 2030(1.200bn prior),based on global paidstreaming penetration(as a%of internet users)rising to 18.6%in 2030 from12%in 2023,with DM penet

68、ration rising to 48%in 2030 from 33%in 2023,andEM penetration rising to 13%in 2030 from 7%in 2023.We assume a globalARPU decline of-0.4%in 2024(vs.+0.2%prior,and-2.9%in 2023)and broadly flatARPU across 2024-2030(GSe+0.5%prior).Given the ongoing deceleration in DMvolume growth as markets mature,this

69、implies a greater reliance on improvingpricing in these markets to drive revenue growth in the future,whilst the priority inEM will likely remain volume growth over monetisation.We continue to model 3%average headline pricing growth in DM per annum,mostly offset by the dilution fromEM and family pla

70、ns/bundles.We do not include at this stage any potential benefitfrom the introduction of new premium pricing tiers.Ad-funded streaming:We reduce our forecasts for ad-funded streaming,which wennow expect to grow at an 11.6%CAGR 2024-30 vs.14.6%previously,reflectinglower growth assumptions across vide

71、o and emerging platforms(in particularTikTok).For 2024,we reflect the impact of the non-renewal of the licensingagreement between UMG and TikTok,which UMG estimated at c.1%of grouprevenues on an annual basis(implying c.$118mn across recorded and publishing).From 2025,we assume a more gradual step up

72、 in payments from TikTok to therecorded music industry,resulting in an overall emerging platform revenue CAGR of16.1%for 2024-30E(from 19.3%previously).Physical:We raise our physical sales forecasts materially(2024-30 revenue CAGR ofn+3%vs.-2%previously)as we believe that the return to growth observ

73、ed in thepast three years can be sustained,owing to an improving mix shift towards vinyl,which has recorded double-digit growth across the past four years,as well as therevival of CD sales(c.+7%growth per year on average over the past three years).We believe Physical sales have become one of the maj

74、or routes to monetise thesuperfans,with Luminates 2023 mid-year Music Report highlighting that physicalmusic buyers in the US are more than twice as likely to be music superfans andspend 80%more money on music than the average listener.1 May 2024 10Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirExhibit 5:We forecast

75、 the global recorded music market to grow 8.5%/8.8%in 2024/2025 and at an 8.1%CAGR 2024-2030E Gl obal Recorded Music market revenues($bn,LHS),%growth(RHS)4%0%-2%-1%-5%-8%0%-3%-3%-6%-8%-7%-5%-1%0%-2%-3%4%6%7%10%8%7%18%9%10%9%9%9%9%8%8%8%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%00020004200

76、520062007200820092000002220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E$bnPhysicalDownloadOtherStreamingGlobal market growthSource:Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IFPI Global Music Report 2024Exhibit 6:We forecast global paid streaming penetration to in

77、crease to 19%in 2030 from 12%in 2023 Streaming penetration by market(as%of I nternet users),2013-30E Source:Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IFPI Global Music Report 20241 May 2024 11Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirMusic Publishing:expect another year of outperformance vs.recorded music,raise

78、 2024-30E CAGR to+7.8%yoy(from+7.6%)The Music Publishing market enjoyed a strong year of revenue growth in 2023,up 11%yoy on the back of the record growth seen in 2022/21,and outperforming once again the recorded music market.We believe that the publishing industry benefited from strong growth in pe

79、rformance and streaming royalties,the step-up in CRB statutory mechanical rates for streaming and physical sales in the US and ongoing improvement in catalogue monetisation.We slightly raise our growth forecasts to c.9%in 2024/25,slightly ahead of the recorded music market growth,with a 7.8%CAGR for

80、 2024-30E(from+7.6%prior),taking music publishing to$15.3bn in 2030.In 2024 in particular,we expect to see further improvement in CRB rates to 15.2%(from 15.1%)for streaming and to 12.40 cents(from 12.0 cents)for physical products and digital downloads in the US,as well as an acceleration in sync re

81、venue growth given the impact of the US Exhibit 7:Global ARPU has begun to stabilise over the last couple of years,which we expect to continue as improved DM monetisation offsets dilution from EM.Paid streaming ARPU-Gl obal,DM and EM Exhibit 8:.which broadly tracks the improved ARPU trends seen at S

82、potify ARPU growth yoy-Spotify&Gl obal$0.0$10.0$20.0$30.0$40.0$50.0$60.020002020224E2025E2026E2027E2028EDMEMGlobal ARPU-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%200224E2025E2026E2027EGlobal ARPUSpotifySource:Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IFP

83、I Global Music Report 2024Source:Company dat a,Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IFPI Global Music Report 2024Exhibit 9:Subscription volume growth has slowed across the main developed markets,implying greater reliance on pricing to drive future revenue growth Paid subscribe

84、r yoy growth in devel oped markets,2017-23 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%20020202120222023USACanadaUKGermanyFranceSwedenAustralasiaJapanSouth KoreaSource:IFPI Global Music Report 2024,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research1 May 2024 12Gol dman SachsMusic in the Airwriters strikes in 2

85、023.That said,in April,Spotify re-categorised its Premium subscribers as bundles,allowing it to pay a rate lower than the headline 15.2%of mechanical royalties in the US;we note that the NMPA believe this violates the agreed settlement in 2022 and is currently reviewing its options.Live Music:improv

86、ed growth outlook driven by strong demand and supply tailwinds The live music industry continued its strong rebound in 2023,with estimated revenues of$33.1bn in 2023(vs.$26.5bn in 2022)based on the trends reported by various industry players such as Live Nation and CTS Eventim.In 2023,we estimate th

87、at the industry grew 25%yoy,well ahead of our prior 6%forecast,and reaching 118%of 2019 levels.This is driven in our view by a strong schedule that featured many artists who had not toured since pre-Covid,in particular Taylor Swift and Beyonce,driving both attendance(owing to larger venues)and prici

88、ng power(due to perceived scarcity of these artists in the short term).This also once again demonstrates the resilience of concert spending amidst elevated inflation and pressure on consumer spending,and the growing structural demand for experiences,particularly amongst Gen Z and Millennials.In 2024

89、,we expect activity to normalise(+6%yoy),given the tough comps following the release of pent-up demand and supply.Looking forward,we expect live music to remain an attractive market with a solid growth outlook(GSe+6.5%2024-30 CAGR,from+5%previously),given strong secular demand&supply tailwinds.Exhib

90、it 10:We forecast the Music Publishing market to grow by c.9%in 2024/2025 after a strong+c.11%last year Gl obal Music Publ ishing market revenues($bn)and%growth 3%3%4%4%-2%-4%2%-4%2%2%6%5%12%10%3%5%18%18%11%9%9%8%7%7%7%7%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%$0$2$4$6$8$10$12$14$00720082009200

91、0002220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EMechanicalDigitalPerformanceSyncOther%changeSource:Music&Copyright,OMDIA,Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research1 May 2024 13Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirIncreasing supply of artists touring.On the supply s

92、ide,we see long-term growth driven by the globalisation of music(i.e.artists from anywhere in the world can have a global fan base to tour to thanks to the proliferation of streaming)and stronger financial incentives for artists to tour(e.g.top artists earn up to c.95%of their income from touring).L

93、ive entertainment companies have spoken to strong supply in 2024.For example,Live Nation stated with 4Q23 earnings that show count is pacing up double-digits yoy across its larger-format footprint(e.g.amphitheaters,arenas&stadiums)for 2024.Similarly,MSG Entertainment has noted that it expects a low-

94、double-digit yoy increase in bookings for its fiscal year 2024(ends June 30),with yoy concert bookings pacing ahead by a fairly strong double digit for 1HFY25 at The Garden in NYC.As mentioned,2023 was a historically robust stadium year in terms of supply,as many top artists came back from multi-yea

95、r touring hiatuses with new music post-Covid.In 2024,we expect that the concert slate will mix-shift more towards smaller and mid-sized venues such as amphitheaters as global artists temporarily pare back touring following a busy stretch,and as some larger venues across Europe come offline for large

96、 events such as the Olympics and UEFA Euro 2024.Robust demand for Live Music.Over the long term,we believe that demand for live entertainment will be driven by i)supportive demographic and consumer trends,and ii)the increased awareness of and social value attributable to live events brought about by

97、 streaming and social media.In our view,continued momentum even after a tougher 2022/23 consumer backdrop lends weight to our thesis that demand for live events has structurally increased on a global basis coming out of the pandemic,and is less cyclical compared to other types of consumer discretion

98、ary categories.Despite pressures on consumer wallets from inflation,rate increases,resumed student loan repayments,corporate layoffs and more in the last 12-24 months,which is when fans would have started saving for/planning to buy tickets for 2024,demand for tickets continues to be robust.For insta

99、nce,Live Nation noted on its last earnings call that it continues to see durable consumer demand trends across its business,despite a somewhat uncertain economic backdrop,noting that ticket sales,show close outs,and per caps all continue to trend strongly.There is some evidence of a slowdown,however

100、,with The Coachella Festivals first of two weekends selling out after 27 days in 2024,compared with 4 days in 2023 and just 40 minutes in 2022 when it returned after a two-year hiatus.1 May 2024 14Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirThe major labels have a relatively low exposure to live music,and this is

101、 mainly through their merchandising division and live performance royalties.We forecast UMGs merchandising revenue(we estimate around half is related to touring)to normalise in 2024(GSe:+5%yoy)following+18%in 2023.Meanwhile,we expect WMGs Artist services&expanded-rights revenue,which includes direct

102、-to-consumer merchandise sales,touring,concert promotion and ticketing,to remain lacklustre at+1%in FY24(excluding a$45mn impact from a cost efficiency plan)following a-1.5%decline in FY23,on the back of a light touring schedule and tough comps.Exhibit 11:We believe live music revenues will grow at

103、a faster pace post-Covid given strong secular tailwinds Gl obal Live Music market($bn)$0$10$20$30$40$50$602007200820092000002220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EGlobal Live Music Revenue(sponsorship+ticket sales)2024-30:6.5%CAGR2007-19:4%CAGR2023:25%yo

104、y growthSource:PWC,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchExhibit 12:Merchandising revenues have recovered strongly post-Covid for UMG/WMG$mn Exhibit 13:Touring-related activity is the lowest-margin business within UMGs merchandising business I l l ustrative UMG merchandising gross margin 01002003

105、004005006007008009002000222023UMGWMG8-10%c.25%15-18%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%TouringDTCRetail*WMG ref ers t o Art ist services and expanded-right s revenues Source:Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchSource:Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research1 M

106、ay 2024 15Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirDat a f rom t he IFPI Global Music Report 2024 was used t o creat e mat erial in t his report.All st at ement s using IFPI dat a represent Goldman Sachs int erpret at ion of dat a,research opinion or viewpoint s published as part of t he IFPI Global Music Repo

107、rt 2024,and have not been reviewed by IFPI.Each IFPI publicat ion speaks as of it s original publicat ion dat e(and not as of t he dat e of t his report.)1 May 2024 16Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirEntering a new era of improving music monetisation Over the past 18 months,all major streaming platform

108、s have announced their first ever comprehensive price increases across standard and family plans following a decade of stagnant prices.These price increases appear to have had little or no impact on subscriber growth and churn rates despite a context of elevated inflation and consumer spending press

109、ure,which in our view constitutes clear evidence that music streaming subscriptions remain a compelling value proposition for consumers.Indeed,the number of audio streams continued to rise in 2023(+23%yoy globally)whilst the implied ARPU per stream declined further(-10%yoy globally).We believe that

110、the industry can sustain improved pricing in the future,either through a recurring cadence of headline price increases or more tactical,product-led price increases,as well as developing innovative DTC offerings that can cater to superfans.As premium plan pricing continues to improve,we believe that

111、the audio ad-supported streaming offering will also need to evolve to improve the monetisation of ad-supported users(for instance through higher ad loads and CPMs,or through introducing an advertising light tier for a small charge)and/or support higher conversion rates towards the premium plan(throu

112、gh placing greater content or feature restrictions on the freemium service),which we address in the later section:Ad-support ed st reaming market mat uring;lower monet isat ion upside f rom emerging plat f orms.Music monetisation still lags consumption and other forms of content The fall in the barr

113、iers to distribution and creation of music content has led to a surge in the number of songs released and consumed.The consumption of audio streams globally has quadrupled since 2017,while even in a more mature market like the UK,the consumption of streams has increased 2.5x since 2017.However,the m

114、onetisation of music content has significantly lagged consumption due to the(i)lack of price increases,(ii)dilution from bundles and(iii)lack of customer segmentation,in our view.It has alsonotably lagged the monetisation of other forms of content such as SVOD,where Netflixhas seen its standard rate

115、 increase by 94%in the US since 2013 or c.15%every twoyears.We calculate that the implied revenue per audio stream(both subscription and adsupported)has declined by 28%since 2017,while the revenue per streaming hour onSpotify is 2x lower than on Netflix(caveat:this is based on the latest data availa

116、ble 2021 for SPOT and 2023 for Netflix),with this difference likely greater if 2023 data wasavailable for Spotify.1 May 2024 17Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirExhibit 14:The consumption of audio streams globally increased 23%yoy in 2023,more than quadrupling since 2017 Gl obal On-Demand Audio Song Str

117、eams(bn)Exhibit 15:Revenue per stream fell 10%yoy in 2023 and was 28%lower than in 2017 Gl obal revenue per stream,$950027403359403000350040004500200202021202220230.00400.00450.00500.00550.00600.00650.007020020202120222023Source:Luminat eSource:

118、Luminat e,IFPI Global Music Report 2024Exhibit 16:Even in a more mature streaming market like the UK,audio stream consumption rose 13%yoy in 2023 and was 2.5x higher than in 2017 UK Annual Audio Song Streams(bn)Exhibit 17:Revenue per stream has been more resilient in the UK,but was still down 4%yoy

119、in 2023 and down 6%vs.2017 UK revenue per stream,$480000002220230.00500.00550.00600.00650.00700.00750.00802000222023Source:BPISource:BPI,IFPI Global Music Report1 May 2024 18Gol dman SachsMu

120、sic in the AirEntering a new era of improved pricing for music subscriptions Over the past 18 months,we have seen the first price increases for over a decade on standard subscription plans across major markets from all the major global streaming platforms.Spotify,YouTube,Apple and Amazon Music incre

121、ased prices on their standard individual plans across major markets,including the US,by 10%to$10.99 from$9.99,as well as implementing a range of 7%-20%price increases on student&family plans.Furthermore,we have seen local players in emerging markets such as China begin to significantly raise prices

122、as they look to improve monetisation,with Tencent Music raising prices by 30%in mid-2023(on auto-renewal subscribers for Android users,with iOS price increase following in Jan-24),while still maintaining near record levels of paid net adds.Based on our industry conversations and judging by the numbe

123、r of net subscriber additions in 2023,these price rises appear to have had negligible/no impact on churn and new customer acquisitions.Furthermore,data from customer experience Exhibit 18:Revenue per streaming hour is over 2x higher for Netflix compared to Spotify(we believe that the difference is l

124、ikely higher if 2023 data was available for Spotify)Revenue per hour streamed,$Exhibit 19:The price of a standard music streaming subscription in the US is currently still lower than many other entertainment subscriptions Monthl y price of various entertainment subscription offerings in the US 0.080

125、.18 0.00.00.00.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.2Spotify(2021)Netflix(2023)$10.99$10.99$10.99$15$11.99$11.99$17$40$7.99$7.99$5.99$9.99$9.99$8.99$13.99$6.99$4.99$25.00$12.99$19.49$0$5$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45Spotify(Standard plan)YouTube MusicApple Music(StandardAudible(Premium plan)ScribdKindle UnlimitedNetflix(

126、Standard plan)Sling TVDisney+Hulu+CBS All AccessApple TV+HBO MaxAmazon Prime VideoYoutube PremiumApple ArcadeGoogle Play PassNY Times(Digital)Apple News+Wall Street JournalMusicBooksVideoGamingNewsSource:Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchSt andard subscript ion i.e.excluding pro

127、mot ional periods,as of April 2024 Source:Company dat a,Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchExhibit 20:Music revenue as a%of entertainment spend remains well below the 1998 peak Entertainment incl udes:Recreational and Cul tural Services,Newspapers,Magazines,Books and Statione

128、ry 0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.35%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%22004200620082000222024E2026E2028E2030E%of entertainment spend(LHS)%of nominal spend(RHS)Source:Euromonit or,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research1 May 2024 19Gol dman SachsMusic in the Airstrategy

129、firm HundredX shows that the Net Purchase Intent(i.e.the net share of surveyed consumers who expect to spend more on a product vs.spend less)has picked up in the last two months for Spotify in the US following the price increase in September 2023.We believe that we have(re)-entered a period of impro

130、ved pricing,and would expect the industry to work towards implementing headline price increases on a recurring basis;these could be similar to the price increases adopted in other industries such as SVOD(we note that Netflix started to introduce regular price increases 10 years ago),or more tactical

131、ly driven by product innovation and improved customer segmentation,including the launch of higher priced super-premium tiers to cater to the superfans.We have already seen early evidence of streaming services rolling out their second round of price increases,starting in September 2023 with Deezer,wh

132、ich hiked its Individual Premium prices by 9%to 11.99 per month(from 10.99)in its EU markets,around 18 months after its first round of price increases.We also note comments made in March by Believes CEO,who stated that he expects to see another round of price increases this year,most likely in the s

133、econd half;this has been included in company financial guidance.More recently,Spotify has announced another round of price increases on its Standard Individual(+9%to 11.99 a month),Duo(+13%to 16.99 a month)and Family Plan(+11%to 19.99 a month)in the UK effective from May,with similar price increases

134、 in Australia and Pakistan,only eight months after raising prices in these markets.However,according to Bloomberg,this round of price increases mainly helps to cover the cost of audiobooks,with a new audiobook-free,basic tier to be introduced for the same price as the existing Individual Plan(i.e.10

135、.99).A similar price increase is expected to follow in the US later this year,according to Bloomberg.We believe that this does not preclude Spotify(and other DSPs)from implementing a new round of price increases related to the core music offering,which we would expect to take place at the end of 202

136、4 or early 2025.Exhibit 21:Spotify has been the notable outperformer among music streaming services on NPI.Net Purchase I ntent(NPI)is the net share of surveyed consumers who expect to spend more on a product vs.spend l ess,Jul 20-Mar 24(US)-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%Jul-20Sep

137、-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24Amazon MusicApple MusiciHeartRadioPandoraSiriusXMSpotifyYoutube MusicSource:HundredX1 May 2024 20Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirIn our Music Industry Model,we continue to a

138、ssume 3%annual pricing growth in DMs within our global paid subscription revenues(see earlier section:Raise global music indust ry f orecast s by c.10%on st ronger 2023 and slight ly raised 2024-30E CAGR of 7.6%).For 2024,we reflect the impact of the announced price increases(mainly Spotify),represe

139、nting a c.1.2ppt/2.5ppt boost to 2024E global recorded music market/global paid streaming revenues.We acknowledge that not all DSPs will raise prices at the same time and in every market;however,certain years may see larger/smaller price increases on average than others.Exhibit 22:I n the US,the mon

140、thly subscription price for SVOD services has been rising by 15%nearly every two years for the past decade SVOD monthl y subscription prices($),US Exhibit 23:We believe that the music industry is lagging SVOD by 10 years Music monthl y subscription prices($),US$0$2$4$6$8$10$12$14$16$18$2020142015201

141、620020202120222023 CurrentNetflix StandardAmazon Prime(includes Video)Disney PlusESPN+Hulu$0$2$4$6$8$10$12$14$16$000222023CurrentSpotify Music StandardAmazon and Apple Music StandardSpotify FamilyApple Music FamilyAmazon Music FamilySpotify Music StudentAp

142、ple and Amazon Music StudentSource:Company dat a,Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchSource:Company dat a,Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchExhibit 24:I n the US,Netflix has increased its Premium plan price by 92%since 2014,while Spotify/Apple have rai

143、sed the Family subscription price by 13%since 2020/21 Spotify/Appl e Music Famil y vs.Netflix Premium price($),US Exhibit 25:Spotify/Apple Musics standard subscription is still 35%cheaper than Netflix in the US US standard pl an price($)-Netflix,Spotify,Appl e Music$0$5$10$15$20$252001720

144、02120222023CurrentNetflix PremiumSpotify FamilyApple Music Family$0$2$4$6$8$10$12$14$16$0002120222023CurrentNetflix StandardSpotify StandardApple Music StandardSource:Company dat a,Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchSource:Company d

145、at a,Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research1 May 2024 21Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirI mproved audience segmentation and monetisation of superfans As highlighted last year,we believe that there is an opportunity for the industry to improve monetisation beyond headline price inc

146、reases,through a premium segmentation of their user base.The current streaming model does not distinguish between its users,charging each the same flat monthly fee,independent of the level of engagement with the platform and its artists,despite the wide availability of data.We estimate the superfan

147、addressable market opportunity at$4.5bn($4.2bn prior),implying 26%upside to our current 2025 paid streaming revenue estimates,based on the assumption that 20%of paid streaming subscribers can be defined as superfans of at least one artist and that such superfans would be spending 2x more on music th

148、an an average individual.While we would expect a strong appetite from superfans for the opportunity to gain further access to their favourite artists through their streaming platform,we believe that not all superfans would be monetised immediately given it may take some time/iterations for the new p

149、roduct and offering to be fully optimised,and such offering may vary depending on the service(different DSPs have different audiences and different factors that drive engagement).As a result,in assessing the potential addressable market,we assume a gradual increase in the%of the superfan base with a

150、dditional monetisation from 10%in 2025 to 60%in 2030.Overall,we believe that the improved monetisation of superfans could represent$3.3bn of incremental revenue by 2030,or a 13%uplift to paid streaming revenues.We flex these key assumptions for 2030 in the sensitivity tables below.We would expect th

151、e industry(record labels,artist managers,DSPs)to work on this opportunity,experiment and roll out either new superfan apps or new super premium tiers on existing streaming services over the next 12-24 months.We have started to see increased focus across the industry on this topic,with the CEOs of ma

152、jor music companies highlighting the need to strengthen the artist-fan relationship through superfan experiences and products.WMG is currently working on an app that enables artists to connect directly with their superfans,having previously invested in various start-ups focused on monetising super f

153、andom including Fave(alongside Sony Music),and Beepr.UMG has signed an expanded long-term agreement with HYBE which includes further collaboration with its global superfan platform Weverse to bring UMG artists closer to their fans.Streaming services also appear to be endorsing the opportunity,with S

154、potify being the first major streaming service reportedly working on a new supremium tier,which would be priced at a premium to its current offerings,and include access to high-fidelity audio among other features(Bloomberg,April 3).1 May 2024 22Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirExhibit 26:We see a poten

155、tial addressable market opportunity of$4.5bn for superfan monetisation I l l ustrative exampl e of TAM opportunity from superfan monetisation in paid streaming Illustrative Superfan TAM2025Paid streaming revenue($bn)17.5Paid subscribers(mn)824ARPU($)22.2%of subs that are superfans20%Implied number o

156、f superfans(mn)165Implied number of non-superfans(mn)660Potential uplift in spend of a superfan vs non-superfan2xImplied superfan ARPU($)44.5Non-superfan ARPU($)22.2Superfan paid streaming revenue($bn)7.3Non-superfan paid streaming revenue($bn)14.7Total paid streaming revenue incl.superfan monetisat

157、ion($bn)22.0Potential revenue uplift($bn)4.5Uplift vs.base paid streaming revenue26%Source:Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchExhibit 27:Assuming a progressive ramp up of monetisation of superfans would indicate a 7%/13%uplift to our 2030E global recorded music revenue/paid streaming revenue I

158、 l l ustrative exampl e of revenue opportunity from superfan segmentation in paid streaming 202520262027202820292030GSe paid streaming revenue-label share($bn)17.519.221.022.724.526.3GSe paid subscribers(mn)8249029795Implied ARPU($)22.222.322.322.422.422.6%of superfans20%20%20%20%20%20%Im

159、plied number of superfans(mn)1226241Implied number of non-superfans(mn)660722783844904964%of superfans with additional monetisation10%20%30%40%50%60%Number of superfans with additional monetisation(mn)16.536.158.784.4113.0144.6Potential uplift in spend of a superfan vs non-superfan2.0 x2.

160、0 x2.0 x2.0 x2.0 x2.0 xImplied superfan ARPU($)44.544.544.644.744.945.1Non-superfan ARPU($)22.222.322.322.422.422.6Revenue uplift from superfan monetisation($bn)0.40.81.31.92.53.3%boost to paid streaming revenue2%5%7%9%11%13%boost to total recorded music revenue1%2%4%5%6%7%Source:Goldman Sachs Globa

161、l Invest ment ResearchExhibit 28:We flex our key assumptions based on the propensity of superfans to pay more than non-superfans and the%of music streaming users that are superfans.%boost to total streaming revenue with superfan segmentation(2030,%)13%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%1.25x2%3%3%4%5%1.50 x3%

162、5%7%8%10%1.75x5%8%10%13%15%2.00 x7%10%13%17%20%2.25x8%13%17%21%25%2.50 x10%15%20%25%30%2.75x12%18%23%29%35%boost to total streaming revenue%of superfansUplift in superfan monetisationSource:Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research1 May 2024 23Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirThe K-Pop case study:K-pop

163、 agencies such as HYBE and SM have been developing various business models in recent years to cultivate and monetise fandom.The largest superfan platform is HYBEs Weverse,which enables fans and artists to communicate with each other in an open space(fan community),purchase video content(e.g.reality

164、shows,behind-the-scene footage)as well as albums,merchandise and online concerts on the Weverse Shop page,and subscribe to Weverse DM(private fan-artist message service).It is also used to publish official statements by HYBE on behalf of its artists.Started initially as a platform exclusively for HY

165、BEs artists(such as TXT,BTS)in 2019,it has been expanding over the years to onboard external artists(both K-Pop and non K-Pop)including from YG Entertainment and Universal Music.As of 4Q23,the platformhad 122 active fan communities and 10mn MAUs(doubling in three years).Although stilla small contrib

166、utor to HYBEs overall revenue,the platform has been a major driver ofHYBEs annual Fanclub&Other revenues(5%of group revenues)growing at 40%CAGR over 2020-23.Exhibit 29:.which indicates a 1%-19%uplift to recorded music revenue in 2030%boost to total recorded music with superfan segmentation(2030,%)7%

167、10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%1.25x1%1%2%2%3%1.50 x2%3%4%4%5%1.75x3%4%5%7%8%2.00 x4%5%7%9%11%2.25x4%7%9%11%13%2.50 x5%8%11%13%16%2.75x6%9%13%16%19%boost to total recorded music revenue%of superfansUplift in superfan monetisationSource:Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchExhibit 30:K-pop agencies suc

168、h as HYBE and SM have been developing various business models in recent years to cultivate and monetise fandom Summary of K-Pop fandom pl atforms OwnerName of PlatformNumber of Users Key FeaturesPriceHYBEWeverse10.1mn MAUs Fan community,Video content,Weverse Shop(purchase albums,merch and online con

169、certs)Fanclub membership KRW 20,000-30,000 annually*SMSMTOWNOnline store;plans to integrate Online concert and fan community onto platformSM Beyond Live91 showsOnline concertDear UDearU bubble2.3mn subscribers Private fan-artist message subscription platformKRW 4,500 won monthly*Ref ers t o f anclub

170、 membership sold via Weverse Source:Company dat a,Press report s,Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research1 May 2024 24Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirExhibit 31:Fans communicate with artists via articles and comments(LHS)and live chatting during streaming(RHS)on fan-only platforms s

171、uch as Weverse.HYBE-Weverse pl atform UX screenshots Art icles aut o-t ranslat ed f rom Korean Source:WeverseExhibit 32:.and K-pop agencies apply various business models to further monetise the loyal fanbase I l l ustrative exampl e-Weverse Shop/Weverse Source:Weverse Shop,Weverse1 May 2024 25Gol dm

172、an SachsMusic in the AirExhibit 33:Weverses MAUs have doubled over the last three years.Weverse MAU trend Exhibit 34:.while average time spent on the platform per month has also grown significantly Weverse average time spent per month 4.95.36.46.86.46.06.98.49.39.510.610.Q212Q213Q214Q211Q

173、222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23Weverse MAU(mn)All members of BTSenlisted for military service003Q224Q221Q23(minutes)Average time spent per monthSource:Company dat aSource:Company dat a1 May 2024 26Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirModernising of the streaming payout model underway L

174、ast year,we argued that the economic model between DSPs and labels needed to evolve.Labels have been paid based on the pro rata model since the advent of streaming in 2008,based on the share of overall streams by all users for its artists,with 1 stream representing any song that is played for 30 sec

175、onds or more.This methodology has become increasingly questionable given:(i)the rise of the long tail of content that is being treated equally to premium music content,particularly with the rise of gen AI,(ii)the rise of fraudulent/artificial streams and(iii)the role of algorithms pushing lower roya

176、lty content.In 2023,the number of tracks uploaded per day onto music streaming services rose further by 11%yoy,to 103.5k tracks,from 93.4k in 2022 and just 45k in 2018(+18%2018-23 CAGR).We believe that the surge in new tracks uploaded daily coupled with the outdated payout model is partly responsibl

177、e for the market share loss of the major music companies on Spotify(although we believe that the dilution from faster EM growth is playing a larger role).Exhibit 35:The number of tracks uploaded to music streaming services each day has increased rapidly over the last few years(+18%2018-23 CAGR)Numbe

178、r of tracks upl oaded to music streaming services a day(k)Exhibit 36:The 3 maj ors+Merlin have seen their share of streams decrease from 87%in 2017 to 74%in 2023(note that 2023 saw“only”1ppt share reduction)%of streams on Spotify from the 3 majors+Merl in 87%85%82%78%77%75%74%65%70%75%80%85%90%20172

179、002120222023Source:Luminat e,Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchSource:Spot if y1 May 2024 27Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirOver the past 12 months,we have seen early progress towards addressing some of these issues through modernising the model by Deezer and Spotif

180、y,and we expect more DSPs to introduce similar royalty payout changes in the near future.While we do not factor in an immediate financial benefit for the major music companies,we believe that such changes will help the major rights holders preserve their market share and minimise the future dilution

181、 of their payouts from the ongoing increase in volume of content uploaded onto the streaming services,which will likely be further exacerbated by the use of gen AI tools.Interestingly,we note that while the number of songs uploaded per day on average rose c.10%yoy in 2023,the 2023 average was actual

182、ly down c.14%compared to the 1Q23 average,which could be attributed to the industrys increased efforts at tackling the long tail and fraud as part of the shift to artist-centric models.Deezer announced the launch of its Artist-Centric Model with UMG in September1.2023,having previously publicly laun

183、ched an initiative earlier in the year to explorethe model.The five key changes in the model were:(i)introducing a double boost tostreams of professional artists,defined as having at least 1k streams per month byat least 500 users,(ii)introducing another double boost for streams of songs thatusers a

184、ctively search for rather than being algorithmically served to them,(iii)de-monetising non-artist noise content from the royalty pool,(iv)tackling fraudthrough an updated and stricter fraud detection system,and(v)capping each usersmonetisation of streams at 1k per month.We note that Deezer began the

185、 rollout ofthe new model in its home French market in October 2023,and in February thecompany announced that nearly all its content providers were operating under thisnew model in the country.At its 1Q24 results,Deezer indicated that it has removed26mn songs(out of c.120mn tracks)since October,inclu

186、ding duplicates and noise.UMG noted that a fully implemented Artist-Centric Model over time could shiftaround 7%-10%of royalties back to real artists,with 1/3 from addressing fraud,1/3from removing clutter from the long tail,and 1/3 from boosting higher valueengagement.Exhibit 37:Similarly,the 3 maj

187、 ors streaming market share has fallen from c.85%in 2017 to 74%in 2023,although share has been broadly stable since 2021 Streaming market share for 3 major l abel s,2017-23 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%20020202120222023Top 3Source:Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IF

188、PI Global Music Report 20231 May 2024 28Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirSpotify announced in November 2023 that it will make three changes to its royalty2.model,which became effective from April 1,2024:(i)tracks that receive 90%of its streamsdeemed fraudulent,and(iii)non-music noise tracks must be str

189、eamed for 2minutes(vs.31 seconds for all tracks previously)in order to qualify for royalties(thelatter being implemented since Feb 1).Data from Luminate shows that 158.6mn or86%of all tracks had fewer than 1,000 plays in 2023 on streaming services withhundreds of millions of MAUs,whilst Spotify data

190、 suggest that 60%of the tracks in2022 had fewer than 1,000 plays.Spotify expects all the changes to the model todrive an additional c.$1bn in revenue towards emerging and professional artists over5 years.Assuming the incremental revenues were distributed in line with existingmarket shares,we believe

191、 this would represent a c.1%boost to major labels annualstreaming growth,mainly at the expense of bad actors.Exhibit 38:We are beginning to see streaming platforms experiment with new payout models PlatformChanges to streaming modelsSoundCloudIn April 2021,SoundCloud launched its user-centric model

192、through Fan-Powered Royalties to independent artists on its platform.Within a year,the company claimed that,on average,independent artists were earning 60%more than they would have on the previous pro rata model.In May 2022,Merlin signed a licensing deal enabling their artists to participate in Soun

193、dClouds user-centric payout model,and in July 2022,WMG became the first major label to adopt the model on SoundCloud.TIDALIn Jan 2023,UMG and TIDAL announced that they would work together to explore an innovative new economic streaming model to better reward the value provided by artists and more cl

194、osely reflect the engagement of subscribers with the artists and music they consume the most.DeezerIn March 2023,UMG and Deezer announced an initiative to investigate potential new economic models for music streaming that more fully recognize the value artists create.Further,in September 2023 it lau

195、nched an Artist Centric Model with UMG which it rolled out in France in October 2023 and this February it announced that all its providers ithd lSpotifyIn November 2023,Spotify announced that it was going to make three changes to its royalty model aimed at reducingfraudlent practices and expecting i

196、t to drive an additional c.$1bn in revenue towards emerging and professional artists over the next few years.The company confirmed that changes became effective from April 1,2024.Source:Press report s,Company press releasesExhibit 39:86%of tracks globally had 1,000 streams in 2023,including 25%with

197、zero streams.Exhibit 40:.and c.60%of tracks on Spotify had fewer than 1k streams in 2022 25%43%68%86%97%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%The%of musictracks with 0streamsThe%of musictracks with 11streamsThe%of musictracks with 101streamsThe%of musictracks with 1,000streamsThe%of musictracks with 100k

198、streams0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%The%of musictracks onSpotify with101 streamsThe%of musictracks onSpotify with200 streamsThe%of musictracks onSpotify with500 streamsThe%of musictracks onSpotify with1,000 streamsThe%of musictracks onSpotify with15%10-15%10-15%10-15%10-15%5%100k tracks uploaded per

199、 day,this has remained fairly stable,and it has not seen the flood of AI-generated content that it expected.Meanwhile,Luminate data suggests that on average 103.5k new tracks were uploaded to streaming services daily in 2023,up 10.5%yoy,but the FY2023 average was actually down vs.the 1Q2023 average,

200、which suggests that the increased focus on tackling the long tail and fraud may have had some impact.Of the 184mn tracks measured on streaming services,43%had 10 streams during 2023,and 86%had 1k streams,according to Luminate.Exhibit 60:Summary of regulatory proposals related to AI in the US,EU and

201、UK NameDetailsNO FAKES(Nurture Originals,Foster Art,and Keep Entertainment Safe)ActIntroduced to the US Senate in Oct-23,in attempt to protect voice and visual likeness of all individuals from unauthorized recreations from generative AI.No AI FRAUD(Fake Replicas And Unauthorized Duplications)ActIntr

202、oduced to the US House in Jan-24,in attempt to prevent unauthorised creation and use of AI-generated replicas of an individuals voices and likenesses,which specifically cites the AI-generated Heart on my Sleeve track that mimicked the vocals and styles of Drake and The Weekndas an example.Generative

203、 AI Copyright Disclosure ActIntroduced to the US House in Apr-24,which would require developers of generative AI technology to disclose the use of any copyrighted materials in training their algorithms,and received support from a number of trade groups across the music industry.ELVIS(Ensuring Likene

204、ss Voice and ImageSecurity)ActTennessee adopted the ELVIS Act in Mar-24,which will go into effect on July 1,and updates the States existing right of publicity with the aim to protect artists voice from the misuse by AI.We note that right of publicity laws at the State level in the USare currently in

205、consistent.EU AI ActIn Apr-24,the European Council formally endorsed the final text of the EU AI Act,which was first proposed in 2021.Organisationswill have between6 and 36 months to comply with its provisions,depending on the type of AI system they develop or deploy.Music Streaming Sector Resolutio

206、nIn Jan-24,the European Parliament voted to implement a new legal frameworkaround the music streaming sector,which included a suggestion for DSPs to introduce labels on AI-generated tracks and urged non-consenteddeepfakes tobe tackled,although this framework is non-legislative and non-binding.Artifi

207、cial Intelligence(Regulation)BillIn Mar-24,the AI(Regulation)Bill received a second reading in the House of Lords,having first been introduced in Nov-23.The guiding principle revoles around transparency,with the development and deployment of AI must be in conjunction with existing consumer and data

208、protection as well as intellectual property laws.The Bill also includes an establishment of an AI Authority.Source:Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research1 May 2024 39Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirHowever,it is worth noting that there have been disagreements around Generative AI

209、in the music industry.For example,UMG and TikTok did not renew their licensing agreement at the end of January,with UMG citing a number of reasons including concerns about TikToks use of AI.1 May 2024 40Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirAd-supported streaming market maturing;l ower monetisation upside f

210、rom emerging pl atforms Following a volatile year marked by a broader cyclical slowdown in global advertising demand,we expect ad-supported streaming revenues to improve gradually through 2024(+9%),underpinned by an improving macro environment,and accelerate towards low-double-digit growth thereafte

211、r.We have reduced our 2024-30 ad-supported growth forecasts to+11.6%from 14.6%previously,mainly reflecting a slower-than-expected recovery during 2023,as well as a less bullish view on the revenue opportunity from emerging platforms,and particularly from TikTok.Ad-supported streaming revenue came in

212、 at+8%in 2023 vs.15%in 2022,below our expectation of+10%,with a slowdown observed across both ad-supported audio(+10%in 2023 vs.+17%in 2022)and video(+5%in 2023 vs+11%in 2022).This was still c.2ppt ahead of the global digital advertising market(ex display and search).Within ad-supported audio,the so

213、cial media category growth showed a marked deceleration to+15%in 2023 vs.+30%in 2022,which,despite being largely fixed licensing fees andtherefore less cyclical in nature,partly reflected in our view the lapping of the prioryears step-up from the renewal of the Meta deal.With emerging platform deals

214、typically lasting two years,we see upside from a potential renewal of the Meta deal in2024.The disappointment also came from the lack of major improvement in licensingterms from the TikTok renegotiation with the record labels.For instance,WMGsadvertising revenue growth improved only slightly to 10%i

215、n 4QCY24 following therenewal of its TikTok deal,from 7%the prior quarter,implying a c.$25mn annual step upor 0.4%group revenue boost.Exhibit 61:We expect global ad-supported video music revenues to grow marginally below YouTube YouTube Ads revenue growth vs.gl obal ad-supported music video revenue

216、growth,%yoy Exhibit 62:Spotifys music ad-revenue grew ahead of the global ad-supported audio market in 2023 but below Spotifys total advertising revenue,reflecting the share shift towards non-music content Spotify total/music ad-revenue growth vs.gl obal ad-supported audio ex.social media revenue gr

217、owth,2023-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%202020224E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029EYouTube Ads revenuesAd-supported video music revenues0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Spotify total ad-revenuegrowthSpotify music ad-revenuegrowthAd-supported audio ex.socialmedia revenuesSource:Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global In

218、vest ment Research,IFPI Global Music Report 2023*Spot if y music ad revenue growt h est imat ed based on public qualit at ive quart erly comment s by t he company Source:Company dat a,IFPI Global Music Report 20231 May 2024 41Gol dman SachsMusic in the AirExhibit 63:Music ad revenues continued to ou

219、tperform global digital ad revenues in 2023 Gl obal ad-supported audio ex.social media revenue growth vs.gl obal digital ad revenue ex.displ ay&search,2021-23 Exhibit 64:Music ad funded streaming growth is converging with global ad trends and is becoming more cyclical Gl obal real GDP,ad market&musi

220、c ad-supported streaming growth,%16.4%11.4%7.4%12.8%2.0%5.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%202120222023Ad-supported audio ex.social media revenuesGlobal digital advertising revenues ex.display&search-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%20002120222023Global real GDP gro

221、wthGlobal ad market growthMusic ad-supported streaming growthSource:Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research,IFPI Global Music Report 2023,eMarket erSource:MAGNA,IFPI Global Music Report 2023,Dat a compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment ResearchExhibit 65:Global advertising expenditure has sh

222、own correlation with global real GDP growth Gl obal advertising expenditure vs gl obal real GDP growth,2001-2023 y=1.7328x-0.0204R=0.5142-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%Source:MAGNA Global,Company dat a,Goldman Sachs Global Invest ment Research1 May 2024 42Gol d

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