1、Shell LNG Outlook 2024Cautionary noteThe companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities.In this LNG Outlook“Shell”,“Shell Group”and“Group”are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general.Likew

2、ise,the words“we”,“us”and“our”are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them.These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities.Subsidiaries,“Shell subsidiaries”and“Shell companies”as used in

3、 this LNG Outlook refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control.Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as“joint ventures”and“joint operations”,respectively.“Joint ventures”and“joint operations”are colle

4、ctively referred to as“joint arrangements”.Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as“associates”.The term“Shell interest”is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or

5、unincorporated joint arrangement,after exclusion of all third-party interest.Forward-Looking StatementsThis LNG Outlook contains forward-looking statements(within the meaning of the U.S.Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995)concerning the financial condition,results of operations and busi

6、nesses of Shell.All statements other than statements of historical fact are,or may be deemed to be,forward-looking statements.Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on managements current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and un

7、certainties that could cause actual results,performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.Forward-looking statements include,among other things,statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing managements

8、 expectations,beliefs,estimates,forecasts,projections and assumptions.These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as“aim”,“ambition”,anticipate,believe,could,estimate,expect,goals,intend,may,“milestones”,objectives,outlook,plan,probably,project,risks,“sched

9、ule”,seek,should,target,will and similar terms and phrases.There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this Outlook,including(without limitation):(

10、a)price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas;(b)changes in demand for Shells products;(c)currency fluctuations;(d)drilling and production results;(e)reserves estimates;(f)loss of market share and industry competition;(g)environmental and physical risks;(h)risks associated with the identificatio

11、n of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets,and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions;(i)the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions;(j)legislative,judicial,fiscal and regulatory developments including regula

12、tory measures addressing climate change;(k)economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions;(l)political risks,including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities,delays or advancements in the approval of projects and d

13、elays in the reimbursement for shared costs;(m)risks associated with the impact of pandemics,such as the COVID-19(coronavirus)outbreak,regional conflicts,such as Russias invasion of Ukraine,and a significant cybersecurity breach;and(n)changes in trading conditions.No assurance is provided that futur

14、e dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments.All forward-looking statements contained in this LNG Outlook are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section.Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking

15、statements.Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plcs Form 20-F for the year ended December 31,2022(available at and www.sec.gov).These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this Outlook and should be considered by the

16、 reader.Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this Outlook,February 14,2024.Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information,future events or other information.In li

17、ght of these risks,results could differ materially from those stated,implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this LNG Outlook.Shells net carbon intensityAlso,in this LNG Outlook we may refer to Shells“Net Carbon Intensity”,which includes Shells carbon emissions from the

18、production of our energy products,our suppliers carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and our customers carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell.Shell only controls its own emissions.The use of the term Shells“Net Carbon Intensity”is for convenienc

19、e only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell plc or its subsidiaries.Shells net-Zero Emissions TargetShells operating plan,outlook and budgets are forecasted for a ten-year period and are updated every year.They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reason

20、ably expect to see over the next ten years.Accordingly,they reflect our Scope 1,Scope 2 and Net Carbon Intensity(NCI)targets over the next ten years.However,Shells operating plans cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target and 2035 NCI target,as these targets are currently outside our plannin

21、g period.In the future,as society moves towards net-zero emissions,we expect Shells operating plans to reflect this movement.However,if society is not net zero in 2050,as of today,there would be significant risk that Shell may not meet this target.Shell expects to publish its 2024 Energy Transition

22、Strategy on March 14,2024,which will include an update on Shells energy transition strategy and set out Shells climate targets and ambitions for the future.Forward Looking Non-GAAP measuresThis LNG Outlook may contain certain forward-looking non-GAAP measures such as cash capital expenditure and div

23、estments.We are unable to provide a reconciliation of these forward-looking Non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile those Non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures is dependent on future events some of wh

24、ich are outside the control of Shell,such as oil and gas prices,interest rates and exchange rates.Moreover,estimating such GAAP measures with the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort.Non-G

25、AAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are calculated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Shell plcs consolidated financial statements.The contents of websites referred to in this report d

26、o not form part of the LNG Outlook 2024.We may have used certain terms,such as resources,in this LNG Outlook that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC.Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Fo

27、rm 20-F,File No 1-32575,available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.2February 2024Shell plcSummaryIndustry,heating and emerging Asia to drive LNG demand growthDemand for natural gas has peaked in someregions and globally is set to peak after 2040.The global LNG market will continue growinginto the 2040

28、s,mostly driven by Chinasindustrial decarbonisation and strengtheningdemand in other Asian countries.Gas prices more stable in 2023 but volatility lingered in a tight marketGlobal trade in LNG expanded slightly in2023,with tight supplies constraining growthand prices staying above historic averages.

29、A milder winter,high gas storage levels,modest economic recovery in China andlower demand in Europe helped balance theglobal gas market during 2023.Rising global demand for LNG expected to keep pace with new supplyIn the medium term,latent demand for LNG especially in Asia is set to consume newsuppl

30、y that is expected to come onto themarket in the second half of the 2020s.To offset falling domestic gas production inSouth-east Asia,significant infrastructureinvestment will be needed to access the LNGthat these countries need for their economicdevelopment.Shell plcIndustry,heating and emerging As

31、ia to drive LNG demand growth1Gas use peaks in some markets,continues to grow globallyLNG to play increasingly important role in global gas supplyPeak gas demand by decade2010s2020s2030s2040s+RegionsUSA 2030sRussia 2040s+Japan2010sChina 2040sNigeria2040s+India2040s+Indonesia2040s+Argentina 2030sSout

32、h Africa2040sGas demand by sectorBCM05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.5005.00020232040ElectricityIndustryBuildingsTransportOtherNatural gas supply sourceBCM05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.5005.00020232040LNGPipeline importsDomestic productionCAGR3.6%-0.2%0.5%February 20245Source:Shel

33、l interpretation of Wood Mackenzie dataCAGR:Compound annual growth rateShell plcIndustry,buildings to be key demand drivers in emerging AsiaLNG expected to meet more than 75%of this growthEmerging Asia natural gas demandBCM00500600700202320402023204020232040Mainland ChinaSouth AsiaSouth-e

34、ast AsiaElectricityIndustryBuildingsTransportOtherFebruary 20246Emerging Asia gas supply sourceBCM02004006008001.0001.2002023202420252026202720282029203020334203520362037203820392040CAGRDomestic0.5%Pipeline importsLNG5.1%4.4%Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie dataShell plcIndus

35、try must address CO2emissionsGases expected to play an important role in reducing sector emissionsComparative emissionsMt CO2/yr.05001,0001,500International shippingAviationJapanTop 3 European emittersChina steel sectorGermanyUKTurkeyChina exposure to EU CBAM2022Fertiliser0.4$bnIron and steel17.3$bn

36、Aluminium5.3$bnWays to decarbonise Chinese steel%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Gas-drivenGas-supportedOther7February 2024Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,IEA data,Net Zero Roadmap for Chinas steel industry study for Global Efficiency Intelligence&Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

37、 2023 CBAM:Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.Value of Chinese exports to EU that will be covered by CBAM at implementation.CCUS:carbon capture,utilisation and storage(includes bio-energy CCUS).Three largest European emitters:Germany,UK,TurkeyShell plcPolicy and investment continues for gas projects

38、 with environmental and emissions benefitsAsia Infrastructure Investment Bank energy project funding 2016-2023$M02004006008001.0001.2001.4001.6001.8002000222023Electricity infrastructureGasGreen financingRenewable generationEnergy demand and air quality in BeijingBCMeUnhealthy

39、days02040608005202520002020212022Gas demandCoal demandUnhealthy daysSources:Shell interpretation of Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank data,Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and Air Quality Index dataUnhealthy days:defined as an Air Quality index wit

40、h PM 2.5 greater than 150 g/m3February 20248Shell plcGas currently plays key role in meeting heating demandElectrification will need investment,supply chain and buildings improvementsEngland and Wales buildings:gas*and total electricity demand GWh/d05001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.500Nov 2018Mar 2019J

41、ul 2019Nov 2019Mar 2020Jul 2020Nov 2020Mar 2021Jul 2021Nov 2021Mar 2022Jul 2022Nov 2022Mar 2023Jul 2023Nov 2023Gas*Electricity*Buildings gas demandBCM(2022)UKMainland ChinaEuropean UnionUSA33Sources:Shell interpretation of UK National Grid ESO and UK National Gas data 2023,Wood MacKenzie data 2023*L

42、ocal Distribution Zones(low-pressure gas supplied to buildings)in England and Wales*Total electricity demand for England and WalesFebruary 20249Shell plcRenewables,supported by gas,erodes coals role in AsiaChinaCapacity GWGeneration share0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.000202

43、2203020352040South AsiaCapacity GWGeneration share0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%02004006008001.0001.2001.4002022203020352040South-east AsiaCapacity GWGeneration share0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%005006007008009001.0002022203020352040Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data February 202410

44、CoalGasNuclearRenewablesHydroOther%coal share%gas shareShell plcGas provides grid stability,enabling a higher share of renewables in generationVariable hourly power generation in SpainGWh/h0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.018-Feb19-Feb20-Feb21-Feb22-Feb23-FebGasWind&SolarHydroNuclearOtherVariable dai

45、ly power generation in the NetherlandsGWh/d -0040050023Nov24Nov25Nov26Nov27Nov28Nov29Nov30Nov01Dec02Dec03DecCoalGasWindSolarNuclearOtherImportsExports2023February 2024Source:Shell interpretation of European Network of Transmission System Operators data 2023Spanish figures calculated from

46、15-minute intervals Other includes biomass,other renewables and coal11Shell plcMarine sector continues to reduce emissions through LNGLiquefied gases can combine with technologies to help reduce emissionsVessel order book(2023)(Gross tonnage)ConventionalHydrogen&derivativesLNGOtherLNG-fuelled vessel

47、s in operation469LNG-fuelled vessels on order537Projected LNG bunkering to 2028(000 tonnes)02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000202320242025202620272028 Bulkers Containerships Cruise Tankers PCC,Ro-Ro,Ferries OthersPathways to CO2e reductionLower-emission fuels LNGLNGBioLNGBioLNGLSGLSGNet ZeroEfficient

48、techFuture techLow methane slip engines air lubrication hull coatings digitalisation shaft powergeneration methane slip mitigation/eliminationOnboard CCS co-feeding H2 engines fuel cell for main engineCombined with new technologiesSource:Shell interpretation of Clarksons Research,DNVHydrogen&derivat

49、ives:methanol,ammonia,hydrogen,biofuel.Other:Ethane,LPG,nuclear.PCC:pure car carriers.Ro-Ro:roll-on/roll-off.Others:dredgers,ferries,multi-purpose,LPG,tugs.LSG:liquefied synthetic gas.Energy efficient technologies include air lubrication,shaft power generation,digital technologies,wind technologies

50、and improved hull coatings.Future Technologies include onboard carbon capture and storage,co-feeding hydrogen combined with dual-fuel LNG engines,fuel cell for main engine.12February 2024Shell plcLNG decarbonisation pathways need to be explored togetherTo address emissions today and progress zero em

51、ission optionsCarbon compensatedLNGUp to 100%emissions compensatedCarbon credits can be used to compensate for CO2e lifecycle emissions of LNG cargoesBioLNG FeedstockManure and slurryFood and amenity wasteBiogas upgradedto biomethaneAgricultural wasteAnaerobicdigesterBiogasLiquefactionBioLNGUp to 10

52、0%emissions reduced Depending upon percentage of bio blendingTechnologies and efficiencies 10%emissions reducedFor example,using renewable electricity in liquefaction processes can help reduce emissions by 8%Liquefied synthetic gas(LSG)SurpluselectricityfromrenewableenergyElectrolysisRenewable energ

53、yStored andexported as liquefiedsynthetic gasMethanationH2OCO2CO2 fromDirect Air Capture,circular CO2 and,in the interim,point sourceindustrial CO2 Bio CO2CH4Up to 90-95%emissions reducedWhen produced from renewable electricity&using bio-CO2Carbon capture and storage(CCS)80%+CO2 removalCO2 emissions

54、 removal with CCS in LNG liquefactionSource:Shell interpretation of UK Department for Environment,Food and Rural Affairs(DEFRA)GHG conversation factors 2022,JEC Well-to-Tank report v5,Wood Mackenzie announcement February 202413Shell plcReductionCH4A common goal:reducing methane emissions to near zer

55、oDriven by government,institutions and policy156 countries now partof Global Methane Pledge,covering86%of LNG importing countries*Groundbreaking methaneregulation for oil and gas,including imports of gas and LNG into the EUEUAgreement of EU,Japan,South Korea,USA and Australiato harmonised MRV$255 ml

56、n mobilisedfor World Bank methane and flaring fundDriven by industryOver80%of LNG flows covered by more than120 companies and70 countries have joined OGMP 2.052 signatoriesto oil and gas decarbonisation charter launched at COP 28Lab tests of new shipping technology shows methane reduced to low level

57、s*Driven by customersFirst GIIGNLs MRV and GHG Neutral aligned cargo delivered in TaiwanIncreasing customer led demand for transparency and third-party verificationSource:Oil&Gas Methane Partnership(OGMP),public announcements,Methane Intelligence(MiQ)announcements,*including EU;*Announcement by Daph

58、ne Technologies(SlipPure)February 202414Shell plcShell plcGas prices more stable in 2023 but volatility lingered in tight market2Despite structural tightness prices moderated in 2023JKM prices fell but remained above historical normsGlobal gas trade change(2019 vs 2023)BCM-150-Pipeline e

59、xports*LNG exports2023 demand factorsMild winter temperaturesHigh gas&LNG inventories in Europe&AsiaStrong nuclear generation in France,Japan&South KoreaModest Chinese economic recoveryWeak European demand&energy savings Average monthly JKM prices$/MMBtu 0204060Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oc

60、t Nov Dec2016-2020 range202120222023Source:Shell interpretation of Intercontinental Exchange(ICE)and Wood Mackenzie dataJKM:Japan Korea Marker*Pipeline exports exclude North America pipeline tradeFebruary 202416Shell plcSupply security concerns sparked periods of volatility Global events impacted ma

61、rket even with record-high inventories European gas inventories%full 230%20%40%60%80%100%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2018-2022 range20222023Max capacityEvent-driven volatility1Prolonged Norwegian maintenance2Australianindustrial action concern3Israel-HamasconflictDutch TTF traded volume vs p

62、riceMWEUR/MWh0070800100.000200.000300.000400.000500.000600.000Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-2323Traded volumeFront month priceSource:Shell interpretation of Commodity Essentials and ICE dataEurope includes UK,Germany,Belgium,France,Denmark,Netherlan

63、ds,Spain,Italy,Austria,Slovakia,Czech Republic and SwitzerlandTTF:Title Transfer FacilityFebruary 202417Shell plc11USA became the largest LNG exporterPanama Canal constraints shifted trade patterns Top exporters in 2023MT020406080100USAAustraliaQatarRussiaMalaysiaUSAAustraliaQatarRussiaMalaysiaUS ex

64、ports to AsiaMT01234Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Panama CanalSuez CanalOthers*Source:Shell interpretation of Kpler data*Others:Cape of Good HopeFebruary 202418Shell plcNew infrastructure helps redistribute European LNG imports China retook top importer spot

65、,emerging Asia shows growth potentialChange in LNG imports 2023(YoY)MTTotal LNG trade:404 MT7.9 4.6 4.1 2.9 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.7-1.1-1.7-2.8-3.5-4.3-6.0-10-50510Mainland ChinaGermanyNetherlandsThailandIndiaItalySingaporeFinlandBangladeshPuerto RicoColombiaPhili

66、ppinesJamaicaBelgiumHong KongMalaysiaTurkeyGreecePortugalBrazilSouth KoreaSpainFranceUnited KingdomJapanEuropean country with existing regasification facilityEuropean country with new regasification facilityOthersSource:Shell interpretation of Kpler dataFebruary 202419Shell plcEuropean gas demand fe

67、ll in 2023 Demand destruction continued due to lower supplies and elevated pricesChange in European gas balanceBCM 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 3502022ProductionLNGExportsOther pipedRussian pipedNet storage change2023IndustrialR&CPower20220Gas demandChange in gas demandChange in storageGas-power dema

68、nd in EuropeBCM0246810JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2018-2022 range2023Industrial gas demand in EuropeBCM0246810JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2018-2022 range2023Source:Shell interpretation of Commodity Essentials dataEuropean demand includes UK,Germany,Belgium,France,Denmark,Netherlands,

69、Spain,Italy,Austria,Slovakia,Czech Republic and SwitzerlandR&C:Residential and commercialFebruary 202420Shell plcChina gas demand outpaced moderate economic growthRobust domestic supply,piped imports and term LNG limited spot buyingChange in China gas balanceBCM3203403603804002022DomesticproductionP

70、iped importsLNG2023PowerR&CIndustrialTransport2022Gas demandChange in gas demand8%gas demand growth0China term vs spot LNG importsMT020406080202120222023TermImplied spotTotal LNG importsSource:Shell interpretation of National Bureau of Statistics of China and Wood Mackenzie dataFebruary 2

71、02421Shell plcJapan gas demand declines as more nuclear plants restartHeatwaves drove up imports brieflyNuclear availability vs LNG importsTWh MT0204060800001920212023Nuclear generationLNG importsFukushima accidentPeak LNG demandGas-fired power demand vs LNG importsM

72、T-2-10123456JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYoY change in LNG importsPower 2022Power 2023HeatwavesInventory replenishmentSource:Shell interpretation of Japan Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry(METI),Wood Mackenzie,Energy Aspects dataFebruary 202422Shell plcUS supply and Asian demand to lead

73、growth in 2024Import infrastructure ready to meet potential demand upsidesForecast LNG supply growth 2024MTPA Total-15-551525 Americas Africa Russia Asia MiddleEast Total7-20MtForecast LNG demand growth 2024MTPA Total-15-551525Asia excl.ChinaChinaEuropeRest ofworldTotal7-20MtHighLowConsultant foreca

74、st range*Global regas capacity growth MTPA04080202220232024Asia excl.ChinaChinaEuropeRest of worldSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&P Global Commodity Insights and FGE dataAll forecasts are normalised to delivered volumes*Consultant forecast range represents t

75、he distribution of year-over-year supply and demand growth forecasts from Wood Mackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&P Global Commodity Insights and FGEFebruary 202423Shell plcRising global demand for LNG expected to keep pace with new supply3Significant LNG supply coming but start-up timings uncertainHistoric

76、al global LNG supply growthMTPA02040602002120222023Global LNG supply growth forecast rangeMTPA02040602024202520262027Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&P Global Commodity Insights and FGE data*Consultant forecast range represents the distribution of year-over-y

77、ear supply growth forecasts from Wood Mackenzie,Poten&Partners,S&P Global Commodity Insights and FGE.HighLowConsultant forecast range*25February 2024Shell plcShell plcLNG industry has managed large expansions beforeDiverse demand sectors poised to consume new LNG supplyThree-year historical and fore

78、cast global LNG supply increasesMTPA%increaseQatar mega-train build out2009-20110%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020406080Australia&USA first wave2017-20190%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020406080Qatar&USA second wave2025-2027*0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020406080ForecastLatent demand for LNG New marketsShippingdemandPrice se

79、nsitive buyersFuel switchingSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,Poten&Partners,IEA,S&P Global Commodity Insights and FGE data*2025-2027 represents the straight average of consultant forecast growth from 2025 to 2027.February 202426New LNG liquefaction investment underpinned by demand growt

80、h in China,South Asia and Southeast AsiaGlobal LNG supply vs demandforecast rangeMTPA020040060080020202025203020352040Global LNG supply vs demand scenariosMTPA020040060080020202025203020352040LNG supply in operation LNG supply under constructionDemand forecast rangeLNG supply under constructionLNG s

81、upply in operation Demand forecast rangeWM-NZEIEA-APSIEA-NZEGlobal LNG demandMTPA020040060080020202025203020352040Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,Poten&Partners,IEA,S&P Global Commodity Insights and FGE dataWM-NZE:Wood Mackenzie Net Zero Scenario.IEA-APS:IEA Accelerated Pledges Scenari

82、o.IEA-NZE:IEA Net Zero Emissions Scenario Security-driven:Japan,South Korea and Europe.Emerging growth:South Asia,South-east Asia and other demandFebruary 202427Security-drivenChinaEmerging growthMarineShell plcEurope will still need LNG despite declining gas demandIncreased term contracting in 2022

83、2023 is not enoughEurope LNG SPAsMTPA05120222023Firm LNG supplyFlexible LNG supplyEurope gas balanceBCM00500600202020252030Domestic gas productionRussian pipeline importsOther pipeline importsFirm LNG supplyFlexible LNG supplyImplied spot LNGGas demand-Net Zero ScenarioSource:S

84、hell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie dataLNG contracts include LNG SPAs and secondary contracts.Europe comprises EU,UK,Norway,Turkey and Ukraine.Flexible LNG supply:supply that can be diverted.Firm LNG supply:supply contracted for delivery to the buyer.Gas demand Net Zero Scenario is Wood Mackenzie

85、s net-zero forecast,which represents the European Commissions Fit for 55 decarbonisation policy.February 20242850 MTPAe70 MTPAeShell plcChinas gas infrastructure development acceleratesGrowth in scale and connectivity enables China to balance the LNG market China gas-power capacity growthGW051015202

86、530352020202242025Total UK gas power capacity 2023China regas capacity growthMTPA002020202242025Total India regas capacity 2023China storage capacity growthBCM02468242025 Underground gas storage LNG tank storageTotal Japan LNG storage capacity 2

87、023Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and Gastank dataCapacity growth considers projects that are operational and under construction.February 202429Shell plcChinas long-term gas and LNG demand outlook is strong Supply diversification is a key

88、 characteristic of Chinas growthChina gas demand by sectorBCM020040060080020202025203020352040IndustrialR&CPowerTransportChina gas supply by sourceBCM Share of total supply0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%020040060080020202025203020352040Domestic productionPipeline importsLNG importsImport relianceRus

89、sian,US term supply to ChinaBCMShare of total supply0%5%10%15%050202025203020352040US term LNGRussian term LNGRussian pipeline gasRussian pipeline+term LNGUS term LNGSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie dataFebruary 202430Shell plcSouth,South-east Asia emerging as major LNG impor

90、t regionsVietnam,Philippines started importing LNG to backfill domestic gas declinesTotal power generationTWh050002025203020352040Domestic gas productionMTPAe0025203020352040VietnamThailandPhilippinesBangladeshLNG importsMTPA0025203020352040VietnamThailandPhilippines

91、BangladeshTotal regas capacity*MTPA02040608020202025203020352040LNG ImportsRegas capacity*VietnamThailandPhilippinesBangladeshSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie dataMTPAe:billion cubic metre equivalent in million tonnes per annum of LNG*Total regas capacity includes projects that are oper

92、ational and under construction for the four countries referenced(Vietnam,Thailand,Philippines&Bangladesh).31February 2024Shell plcGlobal gas market increasingly exposed to US risksGlobal liquefaction investment*MTPA capacity0255075North AmericaQatarRest of worldNorth American LNG supplyMTPA050100150

93、200250OperationalUnder construction2030North American LNG supply as%of:Global gas demand5%Global LNG demand30%North American gas demand20%Major North American gas basinsProven reserves*(Tcf)MontneyPermianHaynesvilleAppalachia200+100+25+Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data*Global liquef

94、action investment considers projects that have taken a Final Investment Decision(FID)*Proven reserves:represent 2P commercial reserves as defined by Wood Mackenzie.Bubbles are not exact geographical representations of the shale basins.Appalachia includes Marcellus and Utica playsFebruary 202432Shell

95、 plcQatar and USA deals dominate long-term contractingBrent and Henry Hub indexation underscores three commercial structures Global LNG market trade%total0%25%50%75%100%200212023TermSpotLong-term LNG SPA signingsMTPA0255075202120222023N.America QatarPortfolio OthersBy sellerSigning year02

96、55075202120222023BrentHenry HubOthersBy indexationSigning yearThree independent commercial structuresHH PRICE INDEXED LNGOIL PRICE INDEXED LNGSPOT PRICE LNGSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and S&P Global Commodity Insights dataSPA:Sales and purchase agreementN.America represents USA,Can

97、ada and MexicoFebruary 202433Shell plcBuyers pursue long-term supply for energy securityThree-year upswing in contracting shows industrys commitment to LNGLong-term LNG SPA signing historyMTPA02550752000222023Signing yearLong-term LNG SPA signingsMTPABy buyer0255075202120222023

98、ChinaEuropePortfolioOthersSigning year34February 2024By tenor0255075202120222023Signing year5-10 years11-20 years20 yearsLong-term LNG SPAs in effectMTPA0500204020452050Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and S&P Global Commodity Insights dataShell plc2040202424/7 power outputIn

99、fographicIndustry,heating and emerging Asia to drive LNG demand growth Demand for natural gas has already peaked in someregionsBut demand for LNG is set to continue growing beyond 2040China to drive demand for LNG this decade to meet industry needs and decarbonisation goalsLNG continues to lower emi

100、ssionsin the marine sectorLNG-fuelled vessels inoperation set to double over the coming yearsContinuing policy support for natural gas projects in Asia that deliver environmental and economic benefitsGas provides flexibility tobalance intermittent solar and wind generationGas prices more stable in 2

101、023 but volatility lingered in tight marketUSA became largest LNGexporter in 2023,shipping 86 million tonnes Gas and LNG prices stabilised during 2023But limited new LNG supply has kept gas prices above historic averagesChinese gasdemand grew 8%despitemodest economic recoveryOvertakes Japan to becom

102、e largest LNG importer againEuropean gas use fell due tocontinued elevated pricesLNG continued to play a vital energy security role withEurope importing more than 120 million tonnesGlobal trade in LNG reached404 million tonnes in 2023,anincrease of 7 million tonnescompared to 2022Latent LNG demand t

103、o keep pace with new supply but dependent on regas infrastructure investmentChinas gas demand expected to rise bymore than 50%by 2040 North America expected to meet 30%of total global LNGdemand.But reliance on four basins could create midstream constraintsEurope will continue to need LNG to meet gas

104、 supply needs despite consensus for falling gas demandGlobal LNG supply expansioncoming this decade but startup timings uncertainDeclining domestic gasand growing power markets set to drive South and South-eastAsia LNG importsDependent on investmentin regasification infrastructure86m tonnes 404MT2023+7MT202220202025203020352040+50%DecliningGrowing2022202330%(TTF)Endslide with image of Shell pecten