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1、Royal Dutch Shell Outlook 2020Royal Dutch Shell Cautionary note2The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities.In this presentation“Shell”,“Shell Group”and“Royal Dutch Shell”are sometimes used for convenience where references are mad
2、e to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general.Likewise,the words“we”,“us”and“our”are also used to refer to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them.These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity
3、 or entities.Subsidiaries,“Shell subsidiaries”and“Shell companies”as used in this presentation refer to entities over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control.Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as“joint v
4、entures”and“joint operations”,respectively.Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as“associates”.The term“Shell interest”is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or
5、unincorporated joint arrangement,after exclusion of all third-party interest.This presentation contains forward-looking statements(within the meaning of the U.S.Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995)concerning the financial condition,results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch She
6、ll.All statements other than statements of historical fact are,or may be deemed to be,forward-looking statements.Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on managements current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties t
7、hat could cause actual results,performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.Forward-looking statements include,among other things,statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing managements
8、expectations,beliefs,estimates,forecasts,projections and assumptions.These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as“aim”,“ambition”,anticipate,believe,could,estimate,expect,goals,intend,may,objectives,outlook,plan,probably,project,risks,“schedule”,seek,shou
9、ld,target,will and similar terms and phrases.There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could causethose results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation,including(without limitation)
10、:(a)price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas;(b)changes in demand for Shells products;(c)currency fluctuations;(d)drilling and production results;(e)reserves estimates;(f)loss of market share and industry competition;(g)environmental and physical risks;(h)risks associated with the identificat
11、ion of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets,and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions;(i)the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions;(j)legislative,fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory me
12、asures addressing climate change;(k)economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions;(l)political risks,including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities,delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays i
13、n the reimbursement for shared costs;and(m)changes in trading conditions.No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments.All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary st
14、atementscontained or referred to in this section.Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.Additional riskfactors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shells Form 20-F for the year ended December 31,2018(available at and www.sec.gov).These risk fact
15、ors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader.Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation,February 20,2020.Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obli
16、gation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information,future events or otherinformation.In light of these risks,results could differ materially from those stated,implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.We may h
17、ave used certain terms,such as resources,in this presentation that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC.U.S.investors are urged to consider closelythe disclosure in our Form 20-F,File No 1-32575,available on the SEC
18、 website www.sec.gov.Royal Dutch Shell February 202032019 was also a year of record final investment decisions(FIDs),with 71 million tonnes of new capacity being sanctioned,indicating belief in long-term LNG demand.Increasing uncontracted and flexible supply is set to offer more options for customer
19、s in the future.The last decade has seen rapid growth in energy demand and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions which have created the need for more and cleaner energy options.A combination of new policy,favourable economics and partnership with renewables is driving the momentum for coal-to-gas s
20、witching.2019 saw record LNG supply growth as the recent wave of new LNG liquefaction projects nears completion.Most of this growth was absorbed by Europe.Year-on-year growth in Asian imports slowed from highs of 2017 and 2018,but Asia still remains a growth region.Increased liquidity,new spot tradi
21、ng mechanisms and a wider variety of indices being used for long-term contracts point towards LNG becoming an increasingly flexible commodity.Gas continues to provide more and cleaner energy solutions2019 was a year of record LNG supply growthRecord supply investment due to confidence in long-term L
22、NG demand growth 010203LNG-powered cruise shipNigeria LNGSeoulOverviewRoyal Dutch Shell February 20204Gas continues to provide more and cleaner energy solutions01Queensland Curtis Island Royal Dutch Shell 05540024681012141618CO2 emissions(BT)Energy consumption(mktoe)Rest of world energyAs
23、ia energyGlobal emissions(MtCO2)(RHS)CO225%35%45%55%65%75%85%Urbanisation levelOECDEast Asia&PacificSouth Asia00500600700Air quality(PM 2.5)AverageWHO safe level(10)2019 range6.56.76.97.17.37.57.700708090Global population(bln)Annual population increase(mln)Rest of world populat
24、ionAsia populationGlobal population(RHS)Growing population and rising living standards drive demand for energy with lower emissionsFebruary 20205Source:Shells interpretation of Wood Mackenzie H1,World Bank,The World Air Quality Index 2019 dataUnsafe air qualityIncreased urbanisationGrowing populatio
25、nRising energy demand&emissionsRoyal Dutch Shell 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%GlobalNorth AmericaEuropeChinaIndiaShare in the energy mixRenewables and gas expected to replace coal in the global energy mix6Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie H1 2019 dataCAGR-Compound annual growth rate04,0008,00012,
26、00016,00020,000Energy demand 1%CAGR43%37%16%5%-10%9%Global energy demand growth by fuel typeBCMGas and coal share in the energy mix 2019-2040February 2020GasCoal20192040India 2030 gas targetChina 2030 gas targetRoyal Dutch Shell Coal-to-gas switching helping level global CO2emissionsFebruary 20207-5
27、-4-3-2- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*Advanced economiesRest of worldGlobalSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie,IEA World Energy Outlook,IEA Carbon Report 2019 data *Power sector coal-to-gas switching in Advanced economies only*Advanced economies include United Sta
28、tes,European Union,Australia,Canada,Chile,Iceland,Israel,Japan,South Korea,Mexico,Norway,New Zealand,Switzerland&TurkeyCO2change CO2GT,2010=0Coal-to-gas switching CO2savings CO2MT,2010=0-700-600-500-400-300- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019United StatesChinaEuropeIndiaRest of
29、 worldGlobal*Equivalent to over 50%of CO2emissions from South America for a full year-57%CO2EMISSIONSRoyal Dutch Shell Record coal phase-out and generation reduction in 2019Opportunity for more displacement of coal in the power sectorApril 20198Source:Shell interpretation of national government poli
30、cy announcements,Carbon Brief,Global Energy Monitor,GlobalDataplc and Wood Mackenzie 2019 dataNet change in global coal generationTWhGlobal coal phase-out capacity announcements by dateGWPower capacity by fuelGW-60020002001820192020s2030s2040
31、s-300 600 900 1,200IndiaChinaEuropeNorthAmericaRest ofworldCoalGasCoal 2040Gas 2040Royal Dutch Shell Use of coal and other solid fuels outside the power sector also impacts air qualityFebruary 202090200400600800VietnamKazakhstanThailandSouth KoreaJapanIndonesiaBrazilUnited StatesIndiaChinaCoalOther
32、solid fuels050100150200BrazilPolandVietnamSouth AfricaUnited StatesPakistanIndonesiaNigeriaIndiaChinaCoalOther solid fuelsSource:Maplecroft2018 and Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenziedata H1 2019*Res&comm:residential and commercial sector and also includes use in cooking and heating BCMe Billion
33、Cubic Metres equivalentCoal and solid fuel use in res&comm*sectorBCMeCoal and solid fuel use in the industrial sectorBCMeAir quality index 2018ExtremeHighMediumLowRiskRoyal Dutch Shell Coal-to-gas switching in the industrial sector can improve air qualityFebruary 202010Source:Shells interpretation o
34、f International Gas Union,Financial Times,Central Pollution Control Board(India)data 2018 and 2019 PM:particulate matter SO2:sulfur dioxideAir quality levels in Morbi,Gujaratg/m3Gas demand post-ban on coal units in Morbi industrial sector in 2019Mcm/dAir quality in India00500600PM2.5PM10S
35、O220567MorbiMorbiTop 20 most polluted industrial clusters in 20180 x 1x 2x 3x 4x 5x 6x 7x 8x 9x 10 x 11xNumber of times above the WHOs safe limitRoyal Dutch Shell Growth of renewables favours gas in the power mixFebruary 202011Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie H1,national data
36、 and OpenNEM 2019 dataAverage thermal load factorsThermal load factorsSouth Australia electricity supply December 2019MW-00300035004000BatteriesRenewablesGasNet interconnector20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%200020004200520062007200820092000162017201
37、82019CaliforniaUKSpainIndia1%11%1%7%2%28%10%Royal Dutch Shell 0255075100JapanSouth Korea20182019Higher nuclear availability and mild winters reduced imports into Japan and South KoreaFebruary 202023Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,Japan Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry,Korea Energy Ec
38、onomics Institute 2019 dataPower generation mix includes January through October data.*Winter months are from October through March.2020 includes YTD dataPower generation mixLNG importsMTPA5%7%23%26%30%29%42%41%39%38%27%25%17%18%6%7%0%20%40%60%80%100%20019JapanSouth KoreaNuclearCoalGasOil
39、RenewablesOthers6789102015/20162016/20172017/20182018/20192019/2020Winter*average temperatureDegree CelsiusRoyal Dutch Shell US supply adds volume and flexibility to the global LNG marketFebruary 202024Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,US Department of Energy 2019 dataUS LNG exports by desti
40、nationMTUS LNG deliveries to AsiaMTChina%of total US deliveries01720182019AmericasAsiaEuropeAfrica0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.000.501.001.502.002.5020019ChinaJapanSouth KoreaOther AsiaChina%Royal Dutch Shell Global gas prices softened in 2019February 202025Source:Shell interpretati
41、on of ICE,CME,S&P Global Platts 2019 dataGlobal gas pricesAsia spot priceUS LNG export margins*$/MMBtu05020001720182019Dated BrentJKMTTFHenry Hub$/MMBtu0%5%10%15%20%25%Jan FebMar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecRange 19JKM as%of Brent-101234567Jan Fe
42、b Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecTTF NetbackJKM Netback20019netbacknetback*Excludes liquefaction fee;netback calculated as:JKM and TTF minus regasification and transportation cost minus 115%Henry HubRoyal Dutch Shell Increasingly liquid and transparent spot marketFebruary 202026Sou
43、rce:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,S&P Global Platts and ICE 2019 dataSpot LNG deliveriesCargoes%of total marketJKM eWindow/Market on CloseCargoesICE JKM LNG futuresCargoes000 Lots*0%10%20%30%025050075002000019JKTChinaSouth AsiaMiddle EastEuropeAmerica
44、s%spot0050060003006009000200050030020182019BidOfferTrade*About 300 lots is equal to 1 cargoRoyal Dutch Shell Evolving contracting structuresFebruary 202027Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and IHS Markit 2019 dataAverage v
45、olume and length of new contractsYearsMTPANew LNG contract volumes(by seller type)MTShare of new LNG contract volumes(by price indexation)Share of total volume00.511.520482201420162018Average lengthAverage volume(RHS)02004006008002201420162018PortfolioProject0%20%40%60%80%100%2
46、00162018Oil-linkedEU Gas HubHHHybridJKMJLCRoyal Dutch Shell End of the current supply wave in 2020February 5AsiaEuropeAmericasMiddle East&AfricaSource:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie,Poten&Partners 2019 data-50510152025AustraliaUSARussiaRest of worldLNG
47、supply growth range by countryMTPALNG demand growth range by regionMTPARoyal Dutch Shell Global LNG market equilibrium expected to be restoredFebruary 202029LNG import growth by regionMTSource:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit 2019 data-5051015Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42016201
48、720021AsiaEuropeAmericasMiddle EastRoyal Dutch Shell February 20203003Record supply investment due to confidence in long-term LNG demand growth LNG London bunkers a containershipin RotterdamRoyal Dutch Shell Expected supply shortage in mid-2020s resulted in record FIDsFebruary 202031Sourc
49、e:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit 2019 dataInvestment in liquefaction capacity by contract typeMTLNG equity offtake by buyer typeMT0204060802000019Project SPAEquity offtake020406019IOCNOCOtherRoyal Dutch Shell 02004006008002000200520025
50、203020352040Record FIDs delay expected supply-demand gapLNG demand estimated to double by 2040February 202032Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie,FGE and Poten&Partners Q4 2019 dataEmerging LNG supply-demand gapMTPADemand drivers for LNGMTPA0200400600800200020052002520
51、3020352040Demand as LNG is the sole gas supply sourceLNG demand supplements pipeline gas and/or domestic productionLNG demand due to declining domestic gas productionLNG demand from bunker fuelLNG supply in operationLNG supply under constructionDemand forecast central rangePotential Qatar expansionR
52、oyal Dutch Shell LNG bunkering demand acceleratingFebruary 202033Source:Shell interpretation of DNV GL,Woodmac,IHS Markit&IEA 2018 and 2019 data*Based on announcements with deliveries going out to 2027.Does not include 150 LNG-ready ships 385 LNG fuelled ships currently in operation/on order*Confirm
53、ed LNG demand#of ships MTPALNG bunker demand projectionMTPA00202025203020352040Wood MackenzieIHSMarkitIEA(WEO 2019)On order010203040Car/Passenger ferriesContainer shipsOil/Chemical tankersOffshore supply shipsCruise shipsCrude oil tankersOther vesselsRoPaxTugsGeneral cargo shipsBulk carri
54、ersRo-Ro cargo shipsCar carriers0.00.51.01.52.02.53.005003003504000000000000000In operationOn orderConsumptionIn operationRoyal Dutch Shell China gas demand expected to double April 20005006007002019DomesticproductionPipelineimportsLNGimports2025DomesticproductionPipelineimport
55、sLNGimports204052%31%2003004005006007002019PowerIndustryRes&commTransport204026%19%48%7%Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie 2019 H1 dataChina gas demand by sectorBCMChina supply by sourceBCM17%38%33%29%Power of SiberiaRoyal Dutch Shell Growing gas demand expected in South and South-east As
56、ia More LNG infrastructure investment neededFebruary 202035Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and IHS Markit 2019 dataSouth Asia gas supply growth by sourceBCMSouth-east Asia gas supply growth by sourceBCMLNG demand and regasification capacityMT05002019DomesticproductionLNGimpo
57、rts2040IndiaBangladeshPakistanSri Lanka05002019DomesticproductionLNGimports2040IndonesiaMalaysiaThailandVietnamOthersLNG demandRegas existingRegas under construction05020192040 RegasIndia05020192040RegasBangladesh05020192040 RegasIndonesia05020192040RegasThailand05020192040 RegasMalaysia0
58、5020192040 RegasRest of SE Asia05020192040RegasPakistan05020192040 RegasVietnamRoyal Dutch Shell February 202036European LNG imports increased by 74%Higher nuclear availability and mild winters reduced imports into Japan and South KoreaEnd of the current supply wave in 2020Global LNG market equilibr
59、ium expected to be restoredExpected supply shortage in mid-2020s resulted in record FIDsRecord FIDs delay expected supply demand gapLNG demand estimated to double by 204080%of energy demand growth expected to be met by renewables and gasCoal-to-gas switching helping level global CO2emissionsRecord coal phase-out and generation reduction in 2019Record supply investment due to confidence in long-term LNG demand growthGas continues to provide more and cleaner energy solutions2019 was a year of record LNG supply growthSummary010203