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1、 2022 Information Resources Inc.(IRI).Confidential and proprietary.November 1,2022Tracking Retail Food and Beverage InflationOctober 2022 Price Check2At-home food inflation continues in October:+1.4%vs.September and+13.3%vs.year ago(YA).Within the store,perimeter including produce and deli has seen
2、inflation moderate to 8.4%vs.YA,while center-store inflation including snacks and frozen meals and other frozen foods has risen every month so far in 2022 and is now at 14.9%vs.YA.Moderation of perimeter inflation is partly due to the lapping effect of inflation seen in second half of 2021,which was
3、 higher in perimeter departments than center-store departments.Inflation varies significantly across the store with the fresh meat&seafood and alcohol segments only up 4.5%and 5.5%vs.YA,while other categories,such as dairy(up 21.3%)and frozen meals and other frozen foods(up 18.4%),were up significan
4、tly.Consumers respond to rising prices by reducing their consumption in some F&B segments more than others.Volumes are down more than 10%in categories such as frozen poultry(-15.5%),deli service lunchmeat(-11.4%),frozen dinners(-10.9%)and shelf-stable dinners(-10.8%)due to significant price increase
5、s.Holiday Celebrations Seasonal Halloween Candy:With seasonal Halloween candy prices up 13.5%vs.YA,volumes are down 2.0%vs.YA,due to greater declines in the more expensive chocolate segment(-7.9%).Thanksgiving:Price inflation for the Thanksgiving meal is up 13.7%vs.YA,driven by pies and side dishes,
6、up 19.6%and 18.8%,respectively,while protein is up 9.7%vs.YA.Summary30.7%1.4%0.6%1.4%0.7%1.0%0.9%1.6%1.0%1.4%AugustAprilMayJanuaryFebruaryJulyMarchJuneSeptemberOctoberMonth-Over-Month Food Inflation Continues to Remain High and Was 1.4%in October vs.September2022 Food&Beverage(Including Fresh)Price
7、Inflation by Month,%Change vs.Prior Month/MULOCNote:Dollar-weighted price change across categories(excludes any mix effects and based on releasable UPCs.Source:IRI MULOC POS data ending 10/23/22.IRI Client Engagement40.8%1.4%0.9%1.2%0.5%1.5%1.2%1.6%1.1%1.5%JulyMayMarchJanuaryFebruaryAprilAugustJuneS
8、eptember OctoberSizable Inflation is Evident in Both Perimeter and Center-Store Categories(October vs.September)2022 Food&Beverage(Including Fresh)Price Inflation by Month,%Change vs.Prior Month/MULOCNote:Perimeter includes Produce,Fresh Meat&Seafood,Deli and Perimeter Bakery.Dollar-weighted price c
9、hange across categories(excludes any mix effects and based on releasable UPCs.Source:IRI MULOC POS data ending 10/23/22.IRI Client Engagement0.9%1.2%-0.3%1.9%1.0%-0.2%1.8%0.8%1.2%JuneMayJanuaryFebruaryAugustJulyMarchAprilSeptember October0.0%Center Store(76%of sales)Perimeter(24%of sales)58.8%9.6%10
10、.5%10.9%11.9%12.5%13.0%13.4%13.3%13.3%AugustFebruaryJanuaryMayMarchJuneAprilJulySeptemberOctoberCompared to a Year Ago,Overall Food Inflation Has Stabilized in the Past Three Months2022 Food&Beverage(Including Fresh)Price Inflation by Month,%Change vs.Year Ago/MULOCVol.sales chg.vs.YA-2.7%-2.7%-2.9%
11、-2.3%-3.0%-3.0%-2.9%-3.4%Note:Dollar-weighted price change across categories(excludes any mix effects and based on releasable UPCs.Source:IRI MULOC POS data ending 10/23/22.IRI Client Engagement-2.6%-2.7%68.1%8.9%10.1%10.8%12.2%13.0%13.7%14.4%14.6%14.9%JanuaryAprilFebruaryMarchMayJuneJulyAugustSepte
12、mberOctoberInflation Continues to Rise in Center-Store Categories vs.YA,while Perimeter Inflation Moderates;Center-Store Volumes Are Stable Despite Rising Inflation2022 Food&Beverage(Including Fresh)Price Inflation by Month,%Change vs.Year Ago/MULOCVol.sales chg.vs.YA-2.5%-2.6%-2.8%-1.8%-2.6%-2.4%-2
13、.5%-3.1%Note:Perimeter includes Produce,Fresh Meat&Seafood,Deli and Perimeter Bakery.Dollar-weighted price change across categories(excludes any mix effects and based on releasable UPCs.Source:IRI MULOC POS data ending 10/23/22.IRI Client Engagement11.1%11.6%11.5%11.4%11.2%11.0%10.9%10.6%9.6%8.4%Aug
14、ustAprilJanuaryFebruaryMarchMayJulyJuneSeptemberOctoberVol.sales chg.vs.YA-3.1%-2.8%-3.2%-4.0%-3.8%-4.4%-3.7%-4.0%-2.0%-3.9%Center Store(76%of sales)Perimeter(24%of sales)Moderation of perimeter inflation is partly due to lapping 2H 2021 inflation,which was higher than center store2.4%-3.1%74.5%5.5%
15、8.0%12.1%12.6%13.4%14.4%16.1%17.1%17.3%17.3%18.4%21.3%Processed MeatBeveragesFresh Meat&SeafoodSnacksAlcoholIce Cream/FZ DessertsProduceDeliBakingShelf-Stable Meals+Ingred.BakeryFrozen Meals+Ingred.DairyPrice Inflation Across Product Segments Varies Widely Alcohol Increases Have Been Low,while Froze
16、n Meals/Ingredients and Dairy Are HighPrice Inflation(excluding mix)by Food&Beverage Segment for October 2022 vs.Year Ago/MULOCOct.vs.Sept.Price InflationVol.sales chg.vs.YA0.9%1.7%1.6%1.0%1.4%1.8%1.2%1.2%-1.9%-3.2%-4.5%-5.0%-3.5%-3.3%-1.7%-3.9%Note:Dollar-weighted average price(including base price
17、 and promotion)change across UPCs,based on releasable UPCs.Excludes any product mix effects.Source:IRI POS data ending 10/23/22.IRI Client Engagement1.1%-5.0%2.4%0.6%1.4%-3.4%-4.3%-1.4%2.1%-1.0%Avg.F&B=13.3%8Trade Down to EssentialsTrade Up to Affordable LuxuriesGrocery(Seek Deals)and ConvenienceVal
18、ue ChannelsLeftovers&Less WastePremiumMainstreamNational BrandsPrivate LabelValueBuy DIY At HomeBuy Away-from-Home Quality for At-Home IndulgenceAT HOMEBulk Value for PrioritiesLower-Ticket ItemsFast Casual RestaurantsQuickServe FoodConven.Store Food24CasualDining(seek more value meals/deals)Do-It-Y
19、ourselfPersonalServicesAWAY FROM HOME From liquid laundry detergent(-9.5%)to cheaper powder form(+8.1%)Food storage boxes+41%Quick trips growing 4x vs.other types Walmart trip growth 2.2x of MULO Mass and club channels are winning volume share Ice cream deals back to 2019 levels Premium F&B brands l
20、ost 0.7 share points Growth for private label in 75%of all categories PL growth strong in staples;e.g.,eggs,milk,butter Espresso makers+16%Moka pots+32%Extended time between visits Apparel-1%$,-4%units vs.YA Commercial restaurant traffic-2%,average check+3%Change in avg.vol./unit(L26 weeks vs.YA):Sp
21、orts drinks+10%Snack bars+8%Consumers Use Multiple Tactics to Reduce Spend in Pressured TimesBroad Behavioral Bifurcation Exists Between High-and Low-IncomeShoppers9A Majority of Categories Continue to be More Expensive,While Some Categories Decline a Bit vs.Prior Month Large Retail Food&Beverage Ca
22、tegories Where Prices Are Up or Down the Most in October 2022 vs.September 2022October price up the most vs.SeptemberCategoryOctober price chg.vs.SeptemberOctober Price chg.vs.YARfg Eggs12.6%56.5%Frankfurters5.5%12.6%Mayonnaise4.5%24.8%Buns&Rolls4.0%16.7%Carbonated Beverages3.0%16.3%Stone Fruit9.0%1
23、7.1%Beef2.7%-1.9%Deli Dips&Sauces2.5%11.2%Cooking Vegetables2.4%12.5%Cookies2.4%16.3%October price down the most vs.SeptemberCategoryOctober price chg.vs.SeptemberOctober Price chg.vs.YASS Soup-0.9%20.2%Breakfast Sausage-0.7%12.7%Fz Meat-0.6%13.6%Baking Needs-0.5%13.2%Fz Poultry-0.4%19.1%Root Vegeta
24、bles-1.9%21.3%Chicken-1.3%17.3%Turkey-1.0%18.8%Tropical/Specialty Fruit-0.8%0.6%Citrus Fruit-0.6%6.1%Note:Excludes any mix effects;Based on releasable UPCs.Source:IRI MULOC POS data ending 10/23/22.IRI Client EngagementCenter StoreCenter StorePerimeterPerimeter105.7%9.7%12.0%18.8%19.6%13.7%BakingBev
25、eragesProteinTotalSidesPiesPrice Inflation for Thanksgiving Meal Is Up 13.7%vs.YA,Driven by Pies and Sides Up 19.6%and 18.8%,respectively Price Inflation by Thanksgiving Segment for 4 weeks ending 10/23/22 vs.Year Ago/MULONote:Dollar-weighted price change across key Thanksgiving subcategoriesSource:
26、IRI MULO POS data ending 10/23/22.IRI Client Engagement11Seasonal Halloween Candy Volume Is Down in 2022,With Prices up 13.5%vs.YA;More Expensive Seasonal Chocolate Halloween Candy Segment Volume Is Down the MostPrice Inflation and Sales Performance for Halloween CandySource:IRI MULOC POS data 9 wee
27、ks ending 10/23/22.IRI Client Engagement3.8%-1.9%-7.2%-2.0%Non-ChocolateHalloween CandyChocolate Snack-SizeCandyTotal HalloweenSeasonal CandyChocolate HalloweenCandyAvg.Priceper Vol.Price per Vol.chg.vs.YAVol.sales change vs.YA(%)$4.18$5.66$5.82$5.1913.0%14.5%14.8%13.5%12Pockets of Premiumization Re
28、main in Some Categories as Consumers Splurge OccasionallySample Food&Beverage Categories Where Shoppers Are Trading Up,26 weeks ending Oct.2,2022.Note:Price tiers determined by line extension avg.price per volume vs.corresponding subcategory avg.price per volume.Premium 1.25*avg.,Value 1.25*avg.,Val
29、ue 0.75*avg based on MULO.Source:IRI POS data ending 10/2/22,MULO.Ppt.chg.vs.YAPpt.chg.vs.YAHigher-priced innovations in form of classic brands16.828.244.510.5VPMPL$%Share+0.9-0.7-1.3+1.1Consumers continue to pay for higher-priced authenticity and taste quality or switch to private labelPpt.chg.vs.Y
30、A14Sales of Larger Packs Ticking Up for Food&Beverage as Consumers Seek Value0.31.80.31.13.32022201920202022 vs.20192021Food&Beverage Average%Chg.in Pack Size(Volume/Unit)/L26 weeks ending Oct.2,2022,&Same Period in Prior YearsNote:Weighted averages across edible categories.Source:IRI POS data endin
31、g 10/2/22,MULO.IRI Executive InsightsTotal Chg.2019-2022Continued increase as inflation increases,on top of pandemic shiftsC o n s u m e r/S h o p p e r S h i f t sExample Beverage CategoriesVolume/Unit%Chg 2022 vs.2021Volume/Unit%Chg 2022 vs.2019Liquid Drink Enhancers14.7%24.5%Sports Drinks10.6%17.
32、6%Drink Mixes0.4%10.7%SS Non-Fruit Drinks2.3%10.2%Instant Tea Mixes5.3%9.4%Bottled Water4.9%7.8%SS Coffee Creamer6.5%7.7%RTD Tea/Coffee2.5%6.4%Milk Flavoring/Cocoa Mixes0.9%6.2%Aseptic Juices1.2%4.4%SS Canned Juices4.8%4.2%Carbonated Beverages0.2%3.3%SS Bottled Juices1.5%2.4%Rfg Tea/Coffee1.8%1.7%Coffee-0.8%1.4%Energy Drinks-0.5%-0.5%Rfg Juices/Drinks0.1%-1.4%Cocktail Mixes-0.6%-5.7%Tea Bags/Loose2.1%-8.4%15 2022 Information Resources Inc.(IRI).Confidential and Users Get New Thought Leadership from IRIs Research,Data and Analytics Experts