《毕马威&GSA：2024年全球半导体产业展望报告（英文版）（26页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《毕马威&GSA：2024年全球半导体产业展望报告（英文版）（26页）.pdf（26页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、 KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry OutlookSemiconductor outlook buoyed by AI and automotive Yet concerns still persist over talentThis is the 19th annual KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook,with key findings from a survey of 172 senior executives from global semiconductor companies.More than

2、 half of the respondents were from companies with more than US$1 billion in annual revenue.The survey was conducted in the fourth quarter of 2023 by KPMG and the Global Semiconductor Alliance(GSA).The publication is designed for semiconductor CEOs,COOs,CFOs,controllers,finance leaders,and strategic

3、and corporate development personnel.This work is equally relevant for executives of companies whose products are heavily reliant on semiconductor components,including products for telecommunications,telecommunications infrastructure,cloud services,data centers,artificial intelligence,platform provid

4、ers,devices supporting Internet of Things(IoT)applications,and automotive electronic applications.ContentsForeword .2Key findings .3Financial expectations .4Operational expectations .9Growth applications and products .13Industry issues and strategic priorities .17Next steps .22Research methodology .

5、23About KPMG and the GSA .24About the authors .24 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global

6、semiconductor industry outlook1In our annual survey,172 semiconductor executives from across the globe weighed in on a number of financial,operational,and strategic questions.Following a contraction in 2023 in global revenue,83 percent of respondents expect their companies to see increased revenue g

7、rowth.Similarly,85 percent believe the industry as a whole will experience an increase,but this is notable because it represents a significant increase in respondents who expect industry revenue to grow year over year(64 percent in last years survey).There appear to be some positive tailwinds in 202

8、4.Upward trends in generative artificial intelligence(Gen AI),cloud computing and data centers,the amount of semiconductors in automobiles,and growing aerospace and defense budgets should combine to help the industry overcome some of the broader economic and geopolitical market risks.ForewordThe gre

9、atest concern among semiconductor executives remains talent,which was cited as the top issue facing the industry for the third consecutive year.Not surprisingly,talent development and retention is also the number one strategic priority,and competition for talent repeats as the biggest perceived impa

10、ct of nontraditional semiconductor players continuing to further their silicon capabilities.Thirty percent of semiconductor leaders believe there is an excess of inventory,up from 24 percent last year,notwithstanding the inventory digestion that for many segments occurred in 2023.However,a growing c

11、ontingent(19 percent)sees increasing demand due to AI and other emerging technologies staving off a surplus.Twice as many leaders feel this way compared to last year(9 percent).2024 is shaping up as the year that starts semiconductors on another cyclical upswing.Lincoln Clark Leader,Global Semicondu

12、ctor practice KPMG LLP The semiconductor industry dealt with an array of headwinds in 2023.Factors including inflationary pressure,geopolitical uncertainty,inventory surpluses,ongoing supply chain disruption,demand challenges in the PC and mobile device markets,and a scarcity of skilled talent consp

13、ired to produce a global revenue decline of 8.2 percent compared to 2022.1 Looking toward 2024,while some of those challenges persist,the overall industry outlook is strong,and double-digit revenue growth year over year is expected to return.21 Semiconductor Industry Association,Global Semiconductor

14、 Sales Decrease 8.2%in 2023;Market Rebounds Late in Year,February 5,2024 2 World Semiconductor Trade Statistics,WSTS Semiconductor Market Forecast Fall 2023.November 28,2023.2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member

15、 firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook2Key findingsGrowth applications and productsFinancial expectationsanticipate the industrys revenue will grow in 2024project their companys R&D sp

16、ending to increase in 2024expect their companys global workforce will expand in 202485%#1#269%55%Automotive repeated as the most important revenue driver for the coming yearArtificial intelligence(AI)now ranks as the second most important revenue driverIndustry issues and strategic prioritiesOperati

17、onal expectations30%51%have already postponed,or plan to postpone,capital expenditures in response to the current economic environmentbelieve there is excess inventory Source:KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.53%anticipate increasing the geographical diversity of their sup

18、ply chains over the next year#1Top 3The top three strategic priorities for semiconductor companies are talent development/retention,supply chain flexibility,and implementing Gen AI The lack of skilled talent is the biggest issue facing the industry over the next three yearsThe top functions in which

19、 semiconductor companies expect to implement Gen AI are R&D/engineering,marketing and sales,and manufacturing and operations Microprocessors (including graphics processing units(GPUs)used for AI)represent the top product opportunity for industry growth 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability part

20、nership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook3Financial expectations Key takeawaysanticipate the industrys reven

21、ue will growproject their companys R&D spending to increase expect their companys global workforce will expand85%69%55%2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a pri

22、vate English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook4The outlook for revenue and profitability is stronger than a year agoDespite concerns over economic headwinds and slowing demand for semiconductor products,a healthy 83 percent expect their companys r

23、evenue to grow in 2024,which is a slight uptick from last years 81 percent.However,the rate-of-growth projections are slightly lower.Forty percent of respondents in this years survey said they expect their companys revenue to grow by 11 percent or more,compared to 50 percent last year.Looking broade

24、r,85 percent believe industry revenue will grow in 2024.This is 21 percentage points higher than last years survey.Corroborating projections from World Semiconductor Trade Statistics show global semiconductor sales are expected to expand 13.1 percent to$588 billion in 2024.3 Long term,the industry i

25、s projected to achieve$1 trillion in global revenue by 2030.4 With hindsight,the executive outlook for 2023 was perhaps overly optimistic as the slowdown in demand and inventory buildup in early 2023 led to overall revenues for the semiconductor industry being lower compared to 2022.The forecast for

26、 an increase in operating profitability across the industry is also considerably stronger in this years survey(70 percent)relative to last year(44 percent).This reflects the expected uptick in demand and strengthening of unit prices that is already beginning to show in memory,for example.Profitabili

27、ty expectations should also be higher as many companies implemented cost reduction measures over the last 18 months.Financial expectations4 Increase 4 Decrease 4 No changeWhat is your outlook for your companys revenue growth over the next year compared to the current year?83%9%9%85%9%6%70%16%15%What

28、 is your outlook for the annual revenue growth of the global semiconductor industry over the next year?What is your estimate for the change in the annual operating profitability of the global semiconductor industry over the next year?Source:Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.3 W

29、orld Semiconductor Trade Statistics,WSTS Semiconductor Market Forecast Fall 2023,November 28,2023.4 McKinsey&Company,The semiconductor decade:A trillion-dollar industry,April 1,2022 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independen

30、t member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook5Capital spending may be impacted by government subsidy timing Capital spending(CapEx)expectations are similar year over year,with 55 perc

31、ent reporting that they expect it to increase,31 percent seeing no change,and 14 percent forecasting a decrease,versus 62 percent,23 percent,and 15 percent in last years survey,respectively.With 45 percent forecasting no change or a decrease,the CapEx outlook is much closer to a 50/50 split than the

32、 questions about revenue and profitability.Its possible that interest rate apprehension was holding companies back from committing to that spending.The slowdown in demand could have also reduced the need for building further capacity in the short and medium term.Or,considering the various government

33、 subsidy programs in the US,Asia,and Europe,there seems to be a lag between when companies are applying relative to when theyre actually going to receive funding and initiate or reignite projects.This time last year there was excitement over the CHIPS Act in the US,and many companies were talking of

34、 expansion.While that enthusiasm remains,it appears to be muted,and a more realistic stance has taken hold as applications have been submitted and grant applicants assess the rules and compliance requirements.R&D spending projections are on par with last year As for R&D spending,expectations for 202

35、4 are slightly lower than 2023 but remain strong.In this years survey,69 percent of survey respondents predicted an increase in R&D spending,down from 75 percent last year.Regionally,the US is about on par with the global average at 67 percent,while European respondents expect to allocate a little l

36、ess(56 percent)to R&D.Companies in the Asia/Pacific(ASPAC)region are highly enthusiastic about R&D spending in 2024,with 84 percent anticipating an increase in spending and with no respondents expecting a pull back.In contrast,10 percent and 17 percent of executives in the US and Europe,respectively

37、,are looking for R&D budgets to decline.Although it continues to trail Taiwan,Korea,and Japan in R&D spending,5 Chinas plans for massive investment in its semiconductor industry6 will be a factor in the regions projected increase in this area.Financial expectations5 Citi,Whos Winning the US-China Ch

38、ip War?October 11,2023.6 Reuters,China to launch$40 billion state fund to boost chip industry,September 5,2023.Source:Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.4 Increase 4 Decrease 4 No changeWhat is your expectation for the change in R&D spending by your company for the next year ove

39、r the current year?69%9%22%4 Increase 4 Decrease 4 No change55%14%31%What is your outlook for capital spending by your company over the next year?2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG

40、International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook6Workforce growth mutedLast year,a robust 71 percent of respondents said they expected their companys global workforce to increase.Looking to 2024,that outlook drops signific

41、antly to 55 percent,with 45 percent still looking for the workforce to be flat or down,even after the reductions-in-force that many companies enacted in 2023.Comparatively,whereas workforce growth expectations in the US and Europe track the global survey average at 54 percent,66 percent of ASPAC res

42、pondents see their workforces increasing,which could also be a collective response to Chinas semiconductor aspirations.Talent has been a focus in the semiconductor industry for several years.There simply have been more open positions than qualified candidates.In fact,a recent study predicts a shortf

43、all of 67,000 of skilled workers in the semiconductor industry in the US alone by 2030.7Financial expectations7 Semiconductor Industry Association,America Faces Significant Shortage of Tech Workers in Semiconductor Industry Throughout U.S.Economy,July 25,2023.4 Increase 4 Decrease 4 No changeDuring

44、the next year,do you expect your companys global workforce to increase or decrease?55%19%26%Source:Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.54%66%54%Regional respondents perspectives that their companys workforce will increase in 2024.ASPACUSEurope 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited lia

45、bility partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook755854593972202420232024562023RevenueGrowthCa

46、pitalSpendingWorkforceGrowthR&DSpendingProfitabilityAfter peaking at an all-time high of 74 in 2022,the Semiconductor Industry Confidence Index(the Index)was a more tempered 56 in 2023 and is 54 for 2024.Any score over 50 represents a positive outlook.So realistically,a score of 54 following a down

47、year like 2023 is still encouraging.This year,revenue growth was the Indexs strongest input at 69.Workforce growth was the weakest component,declining by nine points.Every component of the Index with the exception of profitability was lower than last year.Profitability,the only component in the Inde

48、x that measures what respondents think about the industry relative to their own companies,rose 14 points from 39 to 53 and this bottom-line metric was helped by lower expectations for CapEx spending as discussed earlier.The industry has numerous positive factors propelling it forward in 2024 that co

49、uld improve the Index score in coming years.2024 Semiconductor Industry Confidence IndexFinancial expectationsIndustry Confidence IndexSource:KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2023,n=151.2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited lia

50、bility partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook8Key takeawaysforesee increasing the geographical divers

51、ity of their supply chains over the next year have already postponed,or plan to postpone,capital expenditures in response to the current economic environmentbelieve there is already an excess supply of semiconductor inventoryOperational expectations 53%51%30%2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liabilit

52、y partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook9Despite the ever-growing need for processing capacity and sp

53、eed related to AI,high-performance computers,and the automotive sector,economic slowdown worries still persist for 2024.These economic concerns,as well as the dynamic geopolitical landscape including multiple government elections,could be fueling respondents somewhat muted outlooks for CapEx and R&D

54、 spending.As for what specific actions semiconductor companies might take in response to the economic environment,more than half(51 percent)said they already have,or plan to,postpone capital expenditures.This is close to in line with respondents expectations when asked directly about CapEx 45 percen

55、t are forecasting no change or a decrease.Some geographic differences do exist:In the US,the top action was reducing inventory levels(46 percent),followed closely by postponing CapEx and reducing headcount(both tied at 43 percent).European leaders rated both postponing CapEx and reducing inventory m

56、uch higher than the average(66 percent and 51 percent respectively),while reducing headcount was much lower than the average(22 percent).In ASPAC,“other cost-cutting measures not listed”took the top spot at 55 percent and reducing headcount was below the average(29 percent).Semiconductor companies a

57、djusting CapEx plansOperational expectationsWhat are the primary actions your company has taken,or expects to take in the next year,in response to the current economic environment?(select up to 3)None of the aboveOtherOther cost-cuttingmeasures not listedStock buybacksPostpone/reduce plannedDEI prog

58、ramsPostpone/reduce plannedESG programsReduce employee headcountReduce on-hand inventory levelsPostpone capitalexpenditures51%44%43%35%10%8%6%5%4%Source:Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.Multiple responses allowed;percentages do not sum to 100%.2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited

59、liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook10Among continuing trade tensions between the US and

60、China,the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East,and the expanding nationalization of essential technologies,maintaining supply chain resilience remains top of mind for semiconductor companies.For the second consecutive year,increasing geographical diversity is the number one supply chain

61、action companies have planned for over the next three years.Companies are looking toward other ASPAC countries such as Japan,Korea,and Vietnam in terms of diversifying their supply chain ecosystem.Of course,doubling or tripling supply chain resources is an expensive risk reduction strategy,which is

62、another consideration companies must weigh as they allocate resources.Operational expectationsSupply chain diversification retains top spot on operational agendaWithin the next 12 months In the next 1336 monthsWhat changes do you expect to make to improve supply chain agility and resiliency?(select

63、all that apply)Do not anticipate further changesOtherBuild our more inventoryReprioritize end marketsParticipate in governmentfunding/subsidiesIncrease manufacturing capacityIncrease internal supplychain capabilitiesNew/revised continuity plansBuild a more customer-centricsupply chainInvest in digit

64、izing my supply chain(predictive analytics,automation,etc.)Build a more sustainablesupply chainIncreased geographicaldiversity of supply chain53%2%40%31%30%30%29%23%22%19%10%5%Do not anticipate further changesOtherBuild our more inventoryReprioritize end marketsParticipate in governmentfunding/subsi

65、diesIncrease internal supplychain capabilitiesBuild a more customer-centricsupply chainNew/revised continuity plansIncrease manufacturing capacityInvest in digitizing my supply chain(predictive analytics,automation,etc.)Build a more sustainablesupply chainIncreased geographicaldiversity of supply ch

66、ain58%1%49%34%33%31%30%27%21%20%9%5%Source:Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.Multiple responses allowed;percentages do not sum to 100%.2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated

67、 with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook11A year ago,there was still concern in some sectors over an inventory shortage.That apprehension has eased and now there is little fear of losing revenue for lack

68、 of product.It would appear respondents feel the industry has solidified the supply chain as only 8 percent of leaders feel there will be another shortage in the next 4 years.With the chip shortage subsided we asked industry leaders about the prospect or actuality of excess supply.Last year,nearly a

69、 quarter of respondents(24 percent)said they believed there was already excess inventory in the market.In this years survey,30 percent now feel this way and another 12 percent think that the excess inventory stage will be reached later in 2024.Beyond 2024,there is a fairly consistent spread of opini

70、ons that we wont achieve an excess until 20252027.Interestingly,there is a significant contingent of leaders(one-in-five;19 percent)that believe there is not going to be an excess of inventory or that a prior excess has now been consumed.New technologies like Gen AI and electric vehicles will keep c

71、hip demand at pace with supply.Only 9 percent in last years survey felt this way.As a practical matter,chip inventories do not seem to be an overwhelming concern as projections for industry revenue growth in 2024 are in the double digits.Views on excess supply grow year over yearOperational expectat

72、ionsSource:Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.When will the next excess supply of semiconductor inventory occur?30%12%12%12%9%19%8%Demand will keep increasing due to accelerating technologies like AI;supply and demand will remain balancedDemand will outrun supply,resulting in an

73、other inventory shortage in the next four yearsThere is already an excess supply of semiconductor inventory2024202520262027 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,

74、a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook12Growth applications and productsKey takeawaysAutomotive repeated as the most important revenue driver for the coming year AI now ranks as the second most important revenue driver#1#2(including G

75、PUs used for AI)represent the top product opportunity for industry growthMicroprocessors 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited b

76、y guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook13Rate each of the following in terms of growth opportunity for the semiconductor industry over the next year.(Average rating on a 15 scale,where 1=Extremely low growth opportunity and 5=Extremely high growth opportunity)Source:KPM

77、G Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2023,n=151.The processing requirements of AI applications,automotive,and high-performance devices are increasing like never before.Indeed,advanced driver-assistance systems(ADAS)is the largest

78、 segment of the auto semiconductor market and could see compound annual growth of nearly 20 percent by 2027.8 Similarly,recent company announcements would indicate year-over-year growth in the automotive end market will be less than 2023.However,the long-term automotive demand for semiconductor unit

79、s will only continue to increase.As a result,microprocessors jumped into first place as the product with the highest growth opportunity over the next year.Microprocessors were third last year behind sensors/MEMS and analog/RF/mixed signal.The last time microprocessors ranked as the highest growth op

80、portunity was in the 2016 outlook,where it tied with sensors and memory.Another big mover is memory,which has been in an extended downturn due to oversupply and declines in demand.Average selling prices were starting to fall in Q4 of 2022 and remained on that trajectory for most of 2023.Not surprisi

81、ngly,memory was the lowest-ranked product last year,but in this years survey rose to fourth.This is a positive sign for memory as it relates to the unwinding of potential overcapacity and inventory digestion.Microprocessors take over as the top growth productGrowth products8 IDC,The Semiconductor Ma

82、rket Will Recover in 2024 With an Annual Growth Rate of 20%,December 21,2023.Microprocessors(GPU/MCU/MPU)3.83.4Sensors/MEMS3.43.6Optoelectronics3.33.3Memory(NAND,DRAM)3.22.7Analog/RF/Mixed signal3.13.5Discretes2.92.9Other logic2.93.020242023 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and

83、 a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook14As vehicles move further toward electrification,ADAS,and autonomy,the automo

84、tive industry has exploded demand for advanced chips and components.While the projected growth rate for 2024 global automotive sales is a somewhat subdued rate of 2.8 percent9,semiconductor leaders still voted automotive the most important application driving revenue growth for the second year in a

85、row.In fact,KPMG projects that the automotive semiconductor market could exceed$250 billion in 2040.10 Despite the chip shortage easing and semiconductor leader optimism about the automotive sector,automotive companies themselves still harbor some concern about product availability.In the latest KPM

86、G Global Automotive Executive Survey,almost half of automotive leaders(46 percent)are very/extremely concerned about supply continuity of semiconductor components in the next 5 years.Another 30 percent are still moderately concerned.11 This helps explain why several major automotive companies are tr

87、ying to mitigate supply chain issues by creating their own chip divisions and/or entering into long-term supply agreements with semiconductor companies to protect and create more certainty over important silicon components.The downward trend for wireless communications is also notable.Ranked for sev

88、eral years in the survey as the most important revenue driver,it slipped into second place last year and this year tied for third.Cloud/data centers and IoT tied for third place last year and remained in this position this year,tied with wireless communications.Automotive again ranks as the industry

89、s most important application driving revenue Growth applications9 S&P Global Mobility,S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3M auto sales in 2024,December 14.2023.10 KPMG,Growth in automotive semiconductors outpaces expectations,2022.11 KPMG 24th Annual Global Automotive Executive Survey,2024.Source:KPMG

90、 Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2023,n=151.How important are each of the following applications in driving your companys revenue stream over the next fiscal year?(Average rating on a 1-5 scale,where 1=Not at all important and

91、 5=Very important)Automotive3.93.9Artificial intelligence3.73.4Internet of Things3.53.5Cloud computing/data centers3.53.5Wireless communications(including 5G technology and infrastructure,smartphones,and other mobile devices)3.53.6Consumer electronics3.33.2Industrial equipment3.33.2Personal computin

92、g3.02.7Wireline communications2.72.8Metaverse2.52.420242023 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserv

93、ed.Global semiconductor industry outlook15AI leaped to the number two spot after placing fourth in the prior two surveys.This aligns with the upward move by microprocessors considering the heavy usage of GPUs by leading AI models.Regionally,US respondents are substantially more bullish on AI,rating

94、it the most important revenue driver for 2024,ahead of automotive.This tracks with bullish US responses to other AI questions in this survey and may also be reflective of more moderate expectations for automotive sales in 2024.European respondents actually rated AI fourth,behind automotive,IoT,and i

95、ndustrial equipment.Finally,ASPAC leaders rank AI fifth,behind automotive,wireless communications,consumer electronics,and cloud/data centers.AI soars up the agendaGrowth applicationsSource:KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey

96、 2023,n=151.Rate each of the following in terms of growth opportunity for the semiconductor industry over the next year.(Average rating on a 1-5 scale,where 1=Not at all important and 5=Very important)Automotive3.64.04.2Artificial intelligence4.13.33.4Internet of Things3.63.63.3Cloud computing/data

97、centers3.72.93.5Wireless communications(including 5G technology and infrastructure,smartphones,and other mobile devices)3.53.33.7Industrial equipment3.23.63.2Consumer electronics3.13.23.7Personal computing3.12.63.2Wireline communications2.62.63.1Metaverse2.52.42.6USEuropeRegionally,US respondents ar

98、e substantially more bullish on AI,rating it the most important revenue driver for 2024,ahead of data centers and automotive.ASPAC 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International L

99、imited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook16Industry issues and strategic prioritiesKey takeawaysstrategic priorities for semiconductor companies are talent development/retention,supply chain flexibility,and implementing Gen AI The

100、 top threein which semiconductor companies expect to implement Gen AI are:R&D/engineering,marketing/sales,and manufacturing/operationsThe top functionsof skilled talent is the biggest issue facing the industry over the next three yearsThe lack 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership a

101、nd a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook17Talent is the biggest industry issue for the third consecutive year;nation

102、alization of semiconductor industry a close secondIndustry issues and strategic prioritiesNew chip manufacturing facilities are planned in every region of the world.However,despite the ability to automate many tasks,this high-tech industry is at a deficit when it comes to skilled workers.Talent risk

103、 is viewed as the number one issue facing the industry again this year.From a geographic perspective,looking at US respondents only,talent risk falls slightly behind the nationalization of semiconductor technology as an issue.This balance in the US between talent risk and territorialism makes sense.

104、These dual concerns are aligned in the US with the goal of building new manufacturing facilities and establishing a supply chain that is less reliant on Asia.Unfortunately,the outlook for the talent supply in the US is not encouraging.In fact,according to a recent report,67,000 technical,computer sc

105、ience,and engineering jobs could go unfilled by 2030.12ASPAC respondents concur that talent risk is the top industry issue.However,they did view high foundry costs and excess production capacity as bigger issues than their counterparts.European respondents are also most worried about talent risk,and

106、 over-index on territorialism and global inflation responses.The EU is working hard and investing heavily to lure new chip companies and have local incumbents expand or green field new sites.The European Chips Skills 2030 Academy program is designed to deliver a pipeline of 500,000 microelectronics

107、experts crucial for the success of the European Chips Act.Without these skilled workers,it is feared Europe will not come close to its 2030 manufacturing capability goal.This year,territorialism/nationalization is solidly in the number two position after being tied in last years survey with global i

108、nflation.Companies were worried in late 2022 about global inflation and possible government actionsespecially looking out over the next three years.This year,respondents seem to be more confident the world will get or has already got inflation under control.Although high foundry cost was only named

109、a top three issue by one-quarter of respondents,it was the biggest gainer year over year,increasing by seven percentage points.12 Semiconductor Industry Association,America Faces Significant Shortage of Tech Workers in Semiconductor Industry and Throughout U.S.Economy,July 25,2023.52%1%45%30%25%24%2

110、4%20%19%17%13%10%What do you see as the biggest issues facing the semiconductor industry over the next three years?(select up to three)Supply chain disruptionGlobal inflation and government responsesTerritorialism/The nationalization of semiconductor technology and intellectual property Talent risk(

111、not enough skilled workers,struggle for talent)Excess semiconductor production capacityHigh foundry costIncreasing R&D costsGovernment subsidies to localize investment in semiconductorsSemiconductor production capacity constraintsCyber securityASP erosionOtherSource:Global Semiconductor Industry Out

112、look Survey 2024,n=172.Multiple responses allowed;percentages do not sum to 100%.2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guaran

113、tee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook18Industry issues and strategic prioritiesIn addition to growth,what are the top three strategic priorities for your company over the next three years?(select up to three)53%45%26%25%22%20%20%18%14%14%9%9%1%Digital transformation Implement

114、ing Generative AIPrice renegotiation due to inflationMaking the supply chain more flexible and adaptable to geopolitical changes and other disruptionsTalent supply/development/retentionParticipating in government subsidy fundingTransformative merger and acquisition activityAddressing the product sus

115、tainability needs of our customersMitigating cyber security riskDivestiture of noncore business unitsImplementing a carbon footprint reduction planDiversity,equity and inclusionOtherSource:Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.Multiple responses allowed;percentages do not sum to 10

116、0%.Talent also tops strategic priorities As a strategic priority over the next three years,talent lost some ground from last years survey but still remains at the top of the list followed by supply chain flexibility.These first two priorities are followed by implementing Gen AI and digital transform

117、ation,which rated close together.Although the lack of talent is a global conundrum,US respondents rated it on a par with supply chain flexibility.However,in both Europe and ASPAC,talent was rated the highest strategic priority by wider margins than the average.In last years survey,digital transforma

118、tion encompassed all technologies,such as AI,5G,and blockchain,and was ranked the number three strategic priority.This year,Gen AI was separated given its sudden rise above other technologies and on its own ranked among the top three strategic priorities.Although mitigating cybersecurity risk ranked

119、 low in the global average,US respondents ranked it tied for fourth positionmuch higher than the average.This aligns with the new cyber risk management disclosure rules that public companies are now required to follow.13 European and ASPAC leaders ranked mitigating cybersecurity risk as a very low p

120、riority.While only 20 percent of respondents cited participating in government subsidy funding as a top three strategic priority for the next three years,twice as many(42 percent)said they have applied or are planning to do so in the next 12 months.Of these,32 percent plan to request US$250 million

121、or more.As of late 2023,more than 100 preapplications and full applications had been made to the US Department of Commerce for government funding under the US CHIPS Act,and it is expected that funding announcements will commence in early 2024.14 It will be interesting to see the mix of manufacturing

122、 versus R&D versus workforce projects companies will use the funding for.13 U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission,SEC Adopts Rules on Cybersecurity Risk Management,Strategy,Governance,and Incident Disclosure by Public Companies,July 26,2023.14 Computerworld,Why billions of CHIPS Act dollars have no

123、t been distributed,December 11,2023 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor

124、industry outlook19Industry issues and strategic prioritiesWhat is your company doing to ensure it has the talent it needs to achieve its growth goals?(select all that apply)As nontraditional semiconductor companies(e.g.,tech giants,platform companies,automotive companies,etc.)continue to develop the

125、ir own chips and silicon capabilities,what do you expect the primary impact will be to the industry over the next three years?Nontraditional semiconductor companies are adding strain to the talent issueCompanies focusing on a broad array of strategies to attract talentAs if growth in the native semi

126、conductor ecosystem isnt putting enough stress on the talent pool,semiconductor-adjacent companies(such as platform giants,automotive companies,etc.)have been building out their own chip design capabilities over the last few years.More than half(56 percent)of survey respondents again ranked increase

127、d competition for talent as the top impact these companies are having on the semiconductor industry.This is a higher degree than in last years survey.For all the promise the semiconductor industry possesses,acquiring the right number of capable workers is a distinct vulnerability.For companies acros

128、s the globe,this is a challenge on which their competitive advantage could hinge.University partnerships that cultivate more STEM students is the number one action semiconductor companies are taking to acquire talent,but strategies also designed to retain existing employees follow close behind:reinf

129、orcing the employee value proposition,offering remote/hybrid positions,and providing annual bonuses.OtherRapid promotionsAbove-market raisesHiring from traditionallyunderrepresented groupsApprenticeship programsSign-on bonuses for new employeesWorkforce retrainingImplementing mentorship programsImpl

130、ementing AI/automation so employeescan focus more on strategic workAnnual bonusesOffering remote/hybrid positionsReinforcing theemployee value propositionUniversity partnerships52%2%47%45%40%38%37%37%28%27%20%15%11%56%19%12%11%3%Increased competition for talentNew competitors will emergeIncreased fo

131、undry capacity constraintsSupply chains will be disruptedOtherSource:Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.Multiple responses allowed;percentages do not sum to 100%in the bar chart.2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organizat

132、ion of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook20Industry issues and strategic prioritiesThe US tracks the global average on the top two strategies and is slightly more

133、 inclined to offer remote/hybrid arrangements and annual bonuses than other regions.The US is also well over the average in hiring from traditionally underrepresented groups but well under average in workforce retraining.European respondents are over the average on all three of the top strategies an

134、d are more inclined to implement mentorship programs.However,they fall well below average on implementing automation and AI so employees can focus on more strategic work.ASPAC leaders are most enthusiastic about university partnerships and workforce retraining,but not about embracing remote/hybrid w

135、ork.Notably,ASPAC companies are implementing automation and AI much more than the US and Europe.Companies are looking to retain the employees they have and trying to find pathways to obtain new talent by reinforcing the firms values,culture,and nonmonetary benefits.The US is higher than the global a

136、verage on the majority of these functions.This tracks with the strategic priority question in which the US over-indexed on implementing Gen AI compared to the other regions.As the leader in AI globally16 its logical that US companies are looking to implement Gen AI across more functions.Europe falls

137、 below the average in all functions except procurement and supply chain management.ASPAC over-indexes on procurement and supply chain management,HR,and manufacturing and operations.Implementing Gen AI is one of the top three strategic priorities in this years survey and is also in the top half of le

138、vers companies are using to ensure they have the talent they need to achieve their growth goals.But where exactly in the organization are semiconductor companies looking to implement Gen AI?The top function in which respondents expect to implement Gen AI in the next two years is R&D/engineering,foll

139、owed by marketing and sales and then manufacturing and operations.Given the complexity and high salaries involved with these functions,the time and cost benefits of implementing Gen AI have huge upsides for organizations.Interestingly,in a recent separate KPMG survey,78 percent of executives across

140、various industries ranked customer service operations as the top area where they expected to apply Gen AI15 versus 35 percent of semiconductor leaders who expect to implement this technology in customer support.The semiconductor industry,however,is one of the top industries in terms of R&D spending

141、as a percent of sales.Semiconductor companies expect to employ Gen AI broadly in the next two yearsIn which of the following functions do you expect your company to implement generative artificial intelligence(Gen AI)in the next two years?(select all that apply)15 KPMG,Generative AI in supply chain:

142、A path to better returns,October 2023.16 Techopedia,Top 10 Countries Leading in AI Research&Technology in 2023,November 16,2023.OtherRisk and LegalFinance and accountingHRProcurement andsupply chain managementITCustomer supportManufacturing and operationsMarketing and salesR&D/Engineering56%49%42%35

143、%31%3%26%24%22%10%Source:Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook Survey 2024,n=172.Multiple responses allowed;percentages do not sum to 100%.2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Interna

144、tional Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook21The following are suggested actions for semiconductor companies to consider regarding several of the topics covered in this report:Next stepsCultivate your future talent pool Weig

145、h the short-term cost benefit of reducing headcount against the potential inability to take full advantage of the next upcycle.Look first to cut costs in non-headcount areas such as non-essential marketing activities,third-party spending,and travel.Read more here.Assess the skills your company will

146、need in the future due to hybrid workplaces and the impact new technologies like AI will have on the nature of work itself.Expand your talent pool by tapping into nontraditional talent.Shifting your workforce approach to incorporate nontraditional talent can help you fill open positions and increase

147、 retention of sought-after talent once hired.Read more here.Develop your Gen AI strategy With so many potential use cases,fast-acting semiconductor companies can capture early-adopter advantages with Gen AI.KPMG has identified five key actions that companies can begin taking right now to jumpstart t

148、heir Gen AI agendas.Read more here.1.Address data and data systems2.Identify and pursue Gen AI use cases,such as in supply chain,front office,software development,finance,and tax.3.Develop a deployment and governance strategy4.Ready the workforce5.Look for the right partnersEmbrace the smart supply

149、chain A new paradigm is emerging in semiconductor supply chain management,enabled by advanced technologies such as AI,data analytics,automation,machine learning,IoT,blockchain,and moreone where organizations can respond more quickly to day-to-day requests,proactively address problems,and reduce erro

150、rs and inefficiencies.The result is greater visibility,transparency,and traceability.Most importantly,organizations will be more resilient to future supply chain shocks.But time is of the essence.Read more here about how companies can harness this“smart”supply chain of the future.2024 KPMG LLP,a Del

151、aware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook22LocationAnnual company revenue$1B or

152、more$100M-$999MLess than$100M23%56%22%Respondent titleVice PresidentDirector/Executive Director33%10%28%21%8%The insights in this report are drawn from a web-based survey of 172 senior executives from global semiconductor companies,conducted in the fourth quarter of 2023 by KPMG and the GSA.In some

153、cases,percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.Respondent demographics were as follows:Research methodologyCompany typeVenture-funded startupPrivatePublic65%28%6%Industry segmentFab semiconductor company(IDM)Fab semiconductor company(IDM)Fabless semiconductor company26%28%21%16%9%Rest

154、of worldEMEAASPACU.S.46%21%24%8%1 US1 Europe1 ASPAC1 Middle East/Africa/Rest of world1 Less than$100M 1$100M$999M1$1B or more1 Public 1 Private 1 Venture-funded start-up1 Director/Executive Director1 Vice President/Leader of BU or Division1 President/CEO/Chairman/Founder1 Other C-level1 Other 1 Fabl

155、ess semiconductor company1 Fab semiconductor company(IDM)1 Industry supplier or vendor1 Service,systems,software,or solutions provider 1 Other 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Int

156、ernational Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook23Lincoln Clark is the leader of the KPMG Global Semiconductor practice and a member of the KPMG Technology,Media&Telecommunications practice in the US.He has more than 35 years

157、 of experience providing auditing and accounting services,including as lead partner for a significant number of Fortune 500 companies.Lincoln has extensive experience working with semiconductor companies on IPOs,debt financings,acquisitions,divestitures and equity Mark Gibson is the Technology,Media

158、&Telecommunications global sector leader for KPMG International.During his more than 30 years in public accounting and advisory,he has served clients in the technology,consumer products,and retail industries as both an audit and advisory partner.Prior to his current role,Mark was the Seattle office

159、managing partner.He serves as the account executive for several large clients in the Seattle and Silicon Valley markets and as global lead partner for a leading technology company,where he works with KPMG professionals from audit,tax,and advisory in more than 15 About the authorsContributorsChris Ge

160、ntle,Partner,Global Semiconductor practice,KPMG in the US Jessica Mueller,Vice President of Research,Global Semiconductor Alliance,jmuellergsaglobal.orgKPMG Global Semiconductor practiceTechnology impacts and influences virtually every aspects of our personal and professional lives.The semiconductor

161、 industry is leading the way in this digitized and connected world.The KPMG Global Semiconductor practice is here to help semiconductor companies navigate this.KPMG firms across the globe work with semiconductor clients of all sizes to look beyond todays pressing industry challenges and anticipate t

162、he strategic choices that can best position them for both short-and long-term success.For more information,please visit KPMG and the GSAGlobal Semiconductor AllianceThe GSA is where leaders meet to establish efficient,profitable,and sustainable high-tech global ecosystem-encompassing semiconductors,

163、software,solutions,systems,and services.A leading industry organization that represents more than 30 countries and 300 corporate members,including 100 public companies,the GSA provides a unique,neutral platform for collaboration where global executives interface and innovate with peers,partners,and

164、customers to accelerate industry growth and maximize return on invested and intellectual capital.The growing membership of the GSA represents 70 percent of the more than$500 billion semiconductor industry.Learn more at www.gsaglobal.org 2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a me

165、mber firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private English company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.Global semiconductor industry outlook24The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to ad

166、dress the circumstances of any particular individual or entity.Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information,there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future.No one should act upon such i

167、nformation without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.2024 KPMG LLP,a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited,a private Englis

168、h company limited by guarantee.All rights reserved.The KPMG name and logo are trademarks used under license by the independent member firms of the KPMG global or all of the services described herein may not be permissible for KPMG audit clients and their affiliates and related entities.Learn about us in: