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1、 Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University Global Energy Technology Innovation Team,Harvard Kennedy School Harvard-China Project on Energy,Economy,and Environment,Harvard John A.Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences May 2024 The Second Year of the Tsing

2、hua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality Synthesis report Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 1 1 Executive Summary This report provides a synthesis

3、 of the work in the second year of the China-US Deep Decarbonization Technology Innovation and Policy project.It summarizes the research findings of the 2022-2023 academic workshops on key decarbonization technologies,which focused on building heating;green hydrogen;carbon capture,utilization,and st

4、orage(CCUS);and hard-to-abate transportation modes.As summarized here,the work of the three teams separately and in the joint seminars provided up-to-date assessments on the status of these key technologies in both countries,including their current and projected costs and possible policies for accel

5、erating progress toward widespread implementation.The Foundation Provided in the Projects First Year The first year of the joint study was summarized in a report produced jointly by key members of the three teams,provided to the two countries national Climate Envoys at the time of the Glasgow Confer

6、ence of Parties to the UN Framework Conference on Climate Change,and made public shortly thereafter,in January 2022(https:/www.belfercenter.org/publication/harvard-tsinghua-joint-statement-carbon-neutrality-pathways-china-and-united-states).The report pointed out that,despite the many nuanced differ

7、ences between the Chinese and American contexts,there exists a noteworthy similarity in the list of low-and zero-carbon technologies poised to play important roles in the countries net-zero pathways.That list includes solar and wind power,smart grids,CCUS for fossil fuel facilities,hydrogen from ren

8、ewable sources,electric and hydrogen-fueled vehicles,and improvement of end-use energy efficiency across all sectors.From this list,the US side elected to focus in the first year on(i)an expanded and modernized electricity grid;(ii)CCUS;(iii)electrolytic hydrogen production;and(iv)electricity and hy

9、drogen for space heating and water heating in buildings.The Chinese side focused,similarly on(i)electrification and the electricity grid,(ii)CCUS for coal power plants,(iii)the transport sector,and(iv)end-use efficiency in industry and building.At the end of the first years work,the two sides agreed

10、 that in the second year both would pursue deeper dives on decarbonization of building heating,hydrogen from renewable sources,and CCUS.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 2 Building Heating A notable distinction betwee

11、n China and the United States in building sector is the prevalence of district heating in northern China,contrasting with the predominant use of distributed heating systems in households and commercial spaces in the United States.Therefore,the technical solutions considered in the U.S.study tend to

12、be simpler.Challenges in the United States include the need for large-scale energy-saving retrofits in existing buildings,the high cost of clean heating technologies such as heat pumps,and the imperative to decarbonize power systems due to the electrification of the building sector.In northern China

13、,the discussion around the decarbonization of urban district heating is ongoing.The research conducted by the Tsinghua team suggests that combined heat and power units(CHP)heating is a feasible solution in the early stage towards carbon neutrality.It will remain necessary for some time to maintain a

14、n appropriate number of coal-fired CHP units with CCS to meet building-heating needs.Both countries face the challenge of high capital costs when promoting heat pumps for heating and cooling,and there is a need for technological advancement and supportive policies to facilitate the application of th

15、e technology.Hydrogen From Renewable Sources The transition to a global low-carbon economy will significantly reshape the existing energy supply,production,and consumption patterns.Hydrogen,which is receiving much attention in this context,might well become a focus of both competition and cooperatio

16、n among major powers.China and the United States are encountering similar challenges in the development of clean hydrogen:technological maturity disparities along the value chain,high cost,limited demand and market presence,and insufficient infrastructure.The massive subsidies in the United States h

17、ave significantly boosted investment and production of clean hydrogen,while policy enhancement is needed to channel investment towards green hydrogen projects.In contrast,despite Chinas obvious cost advantages for hydrogen production,the countrys hydrogen policy remains fragmented,with inadequate su

18、pport measures.Looking ahead,both China and the United States need to proactively create a domestic market for green hydrogen application,focusing on the demonstration and application of clean hydrogen in the industrial sector.For China,a reframing of its hydrogen strategy is imperative,in the conte

19、xt of the evolving global energy geopolitical landscape and domestic long-term carbon neutrality and energy system transition strategies.Actively participating in international cooperation Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutr

20、ality 3 and standard certification is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of industrial products in the future.Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage(CCUS)China and the United States are two of the three countries in the world,alongside India,with the greatest imperative to develop and deploy CCUS

21、 technologies.The majority of global and national-level modelling results indicate that by the middle of this century,all three countries will need to deploy CCUS,along with conventional and breakthrough emission reduction technologies,to achieve net-zero emissions.CCUS serves as the sole technologi

22、cal option for achieving near-zero emissions from fossil fuels,a feasible technological solution for deep decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors such as steel,cement and others,and a main technical measure to support carbon recycling in the future.In general,the CCUS technology and infrastructure

23、development in China significantly lags behind that of the U.S.While the CCUS technology in the United States has progressed to the stage of commercial application,Chinas capture technology is still in the demonstration phase while its CCUS system integration optimization is in the pilot stage and i

24、ts infrastructure development is comparatively delayed.Given the urgent demands of Chinas domestic carbon peaking and carbon neutrality strategy and further consolidating cost advantages in equipment manufacturing,China needs to upgrade the orientation of CCUS from a strategic reserve technology to

25、a practical solution.Cross-Cutting Policy Issues While both China and the United States have made significant progress in climate policymaking,they face challenges in the effective implementation and enforcement of these policies.The U.S.policy relies heavily on incentives such as large-scale invest

26、ments,tax incentives,and subsidies;policy consistency remains challenging.Chinas 1+N policy package primarily relies on a“top-down”approach,underscoring the need to strengthen the bottom-up participation of the whole society.In terms of time frame,both countries climate policies focus on the period

27、before 2030,with long-term climate measures still lacking in robustness.Moving forward,the two countries still need to continuously refine their climate policy systems while strengthening measures and implementation to achieve multiple goals,including emission reduction,justice and equality,public h

28、ealth,employment,and public participation.The pathways and technologies required to achieve global net-zero goals are becoming increasingly clear.The innovation of deep decarbonization technology is highly concentrated in a few economies,however,Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Tech

29、nological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 4 posing challenges to the commercialization and global diffusion of these technologies.Simultaneously,the current rate of deployment of low-carbon and deep decarbonization technologies falls short of meeting the imperative to keep 1.5-d

30、egree target within reach.The decarbonization pathways and technology demands in China and the U.S.are remarkably similar,presenting an opportunity for the two countries to collaborate in ways that are mutually beneficial for meeting their respective climate goals,advancing research,and identifying

31、best practices in ways that may also be helpful to other countries.Recommendations Based on the research in the second year of our joint project,we recommend the following specific steps for the two governments:(1)Clarify the strategy and goals of developing and deploying major decarbonization techn

32、ologies such as heat pumps,green hydrogen,and CCUS.Align these technologies with global energy geopolitical shifts and domestic long-term strategies of carbon neutrality and the energy transition.(2)Strengthen climate policymaking by releasing clear and consistent policy signals.Actively cultivate d

33、omestic market demand for deep decarbonization technologies to encourage private sector investment and promote economies of scale.(3)Enhance international cooperation in innovation to accelerate the commercialization of deep decarbonization technologies.Facilitate rapid reductions in technology cost

34、s and increased market penetration through global collaboration.(4)Consider a comprehensive approach to unify the different technologies,infrastructures,and applications in the energy transition;examples include co-production of thermal and electrical energy for building-sector decarbonization,integ

35、rating green hydrogen production with end-use-sector applications,and fitting industrial clusters with CCUS infrastructure.(5)Consider infrastructure investments in parallel with policies to enhance innovative clean technologies for both energy supply and end use.Recognize that infrastructure has be

36、come both a driver and constraint in the development of green hydrogen,CCUS,and other technologies.(6)Promote the effective implementation of climate policies,improve long-term measures and climate policy packages to guard against economic and social risks associated with the transition.Tsinghua Uni

37、versity Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 5 Finally,as noted in our first-year report,it will be critical to mobilize increased energy-climate finance for developing countriesnot only for clean-energy technology and infrastructure but al

38、so for adaptation to climate changeand to strengthen institutions and mechanisms for technology transfer.Research indicates that developing countries will need to increase their climate investments by at least four to eight times by 2030.The international community will need to work collectively on

39、both financing and technology transfer if such levels are to be achieved.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 1 1 Acknowledgements In September 2020,former Special Envoy for Climate Change of China,Mr.Xie Zhenhua,launche

40、d a trilateral research project focusing on comparative study of Chinese and U.S.deep decarbonization technologies and policies.The three project teams are:the Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable Development team led by Professor He Jiankun and Professor Li Zheng at Tsinghua University;the

41、Global Energy Technology Innovation Initiative(GETI)team led by Professor John Holdren from the Kennedy School at Harvard University;and the Harvard-China Project on Energy,Economy and Environment(HCP)team led by Professor Michael McElroy from Harvards Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Scien

42、ces(SEAS).The project,designed to span three years,received strong support from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China,among other institutions.Energy Foundation China generously sponsored the projects research and academic activities.A series of seminars organized under this project were

43、well attended by members of the three teams,as well as by a number of experts from other universities and research organizations.We would like to express our special thanks to Professor Baolong Wang from the School of Architecture at Tsinghua University,Professor Jin Lin from the Department of Elect

44、rical Engineering at Tsinghua University,Professor Huan Liu from the School of Environment at Tsinghua University,Professor Jingli Fan from China University of Mining and Technology,Dr.Xian Zhang from the Administrative Center for Chinas Agenda 21 at the Ministry of Science and Technology,and Dr.Don

45、g Xu from the National Energy Group.On the Harvard side,we are grateful for the participation of Dr.Alan Krupnick from Resources for the Future,Professor Andrew Waxman from the University of Texas at Austin,and Dr.Nicola De Blasio from the Harvard Kennedy School.These experts shared cutting-edge res

46、earch and practical insights in deep decarbonization technology and policies to accelerate its implementation.We appreciate the support provided by Yuxuan Huang,Canyang Xie,and Yuezhang He from Tsinghua University and Amanda Sardonis and Karin Vander Schaaf for their contributions to the organizing

47、the research and the seminars.Special thanks to Tsinghuas Canyang Xie and Harvards Rachel Mural for meticulous proofreading and editing of the report.Our gratitude extends to Fang Zhang and Jieqiong Tong for their unwavering support on project coordination,and Chunliu Mao,Zhihui Li,Yi Hong and Congy

48、u Wang for their robust support in the early stages of the project and its smooth implementation.In addition,we would like to acknowledge the valuable assistance from numerous colleagues and peers in the research and publication of this report.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Techno

49、logical Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 2 ContentContent 1.Background and research scope.1 1.1 Background.1 1.2 Research scope.2 1.3 Research progress.3 2.Innovation and application of deep decarbonization technology:an overview.4 2.1 Highly concentrated global innovation.5 2.2

50、Slow progress on technology deployment.7 3.Progress and challenges of deep decarbonization technologies in China and the United States.8 3.1 Decarbonization of building heating.8(1)Decarbonization of building heating in the United States.10(2)Decarbonization of the building sector in China.12 3.2 Hy

51、drogen from renewable sources.16(1)The future geopolitical landscape of hydrogen.18(2)Hydrogen development and policies in the United States.19(3)Hydrogen development and policies in China.21 3.3 Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS).26(1)CCUS technology progress and policies in the United St

52、ates.28(2)CCUS technology progress and policies in China.30 4.Progress and preliminary assessment of climate policy in the United States and China.33 4.1 Climate policy progress in the federal government of the United States.33 4.2 Preliminary assessment on Chinas”1+N”climate policy package.35 5 Con

53、clusions and recommendations:China,the United States,and the wider picture.37 List of Authors List of Participants of Tsinghua-Harvard Workshops Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 1 1 1.Background and research scope 1.

54、1 Background In September 2020,former Special Envoy for Climate Change of China,Mr.Xie Zhenhua,launched a trilateral research project focusing on deep decarbonization technologies between China and the United States(U.S.).The three project teams are:the Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable D

55、evelopment team led by Professor He Jiankun and Professor Li Zheng at Tsinghua University;the Global Energy Technology Innovation Initiative(GETI)team led by Professor John Holdren from the Kennedy School at Harvard University;and the Harvard-China Project on Energy,Economy and Environment(HCP)team

56、led by Professor Michael McElroy from the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and the John A.Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences(SEAS)at Harvard University.Despite challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic,the three teams have diligently advanced research,fostered academic exch

57、ange,and maintained a strong cooperative relationship between leading universities in China and the U.S.,yielding results that serve as important references for both the Chinese and American governments.In November 2014,President Obama and President Xi Jinping issued a joint statement on climate cha

58、nge,demonstrating the significance of consistent and cooperative China-U.S.leadership on climate issues.This joint statement played a pivotal role in laying the groundwork for the Paris Agreement,which was finalized a year later.During the 2021 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Chan

59、ge(UNFCCC)26th Conference of the Parties(COP26),China and the U.S.issued the Glasgow Joint Declaration on Strengthening Climate Action in the 2020s;the Declaration played a significant role in shaping the conferences outcomes,reflecting not only a determination for action but also a practical and re

60、spectful guide for all Parties.Despite differences on numerous issues,the two governments have maintained longstanding willingness to cooperate on climate change at many levels.The pathways and technologies required to achieve net-zero emissions around mid-century exhibit similarities across China a

61、nd the U.S.,highlighting the value of collaboration in research,technology innovation and development,and related policies.Through the 2023 China-U.S.Sunnylands Statement on Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 2 Enhanci

62、ng Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis,China and the U.S.not only reaffirmed their commitment to international climate cooperation but also decided to operationalize the Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s.This Working Group engages in climate dialogue and cooperation;exchan

63、ges information on policies,measures,and technical knowledge around emission reduction technologies;and identifies and implements cooperative projects.The joint efforts of Tsinghua and Harvard University on this project demonstrate the value of continuing and strengthening China-U.S.climate cooperat

64、ion;the work accomplished thus far exemplifies the importance of future cooperation between the two countries.1.2 Research scope To achieve the net-zero by mid-century,as announced by both China and the U.S.,all feasible pathways require a rapid and substantial scale-up of low-and zero-carbon energy

65、 supply technologies,accompanied by the deployment of energy transmission infrastructure to reflect new supply and growing demand;in addition,new technologies and practices to dramatically improve end-use energy efficiency and electrification will be needed.In the pursuit of these goals,diversificat

66、ion of both energy supply and end-use technologies emerges as a key strategy for both countries.However,neither country is in a position to confidently and accurately identify which combinations of technologies are most likely to achieve net-zero emissions.Some of the most practical and useful appro

67、aches include:Identifying technologies with the greatest potential to make a significant contribution based on existing knowledge;Identifying and describing obstacles that hinder the full realization of their emission reduction potential;and Identifying and promoting near-term regulations,policies,a

68、nd agreements that can be implemented to maintain the likelihood of achieving net-zero emissions around mid-century,based on continued advancements in technology and research from now until 2030.These are the goals of our joint project,which also include exploring insights and lessons from each othe

69、rs national development pathways.Through collaborative efforts,we aim to communicate our interim and final findings directly to national climate policymakers and the Conference of the Parties(COP)to the United Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Pol

70、icy for Climate Neutrality 3 Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC).1.3 Research progress During the first year,the Tsinghua team focused on mapping Chinas decarbonization pathway towards carbon neutrality before 2060,while two Harvard teams delved into key technologies and policies

71、necessary for the U.S.to achieve net-zero.The joint study found that despite each countrys circumstances,the low-and zero-emission energy technologies most likely to play pivotal roles in decarbonization are similar in China and the U.S.In the Chinese context,these key technologies encompass solar a

72、nd wind power generation,smart grids,CCUS for fossil fuel power plants and industries,hydrogen produced from renewable energy,electric and hydrogen-fueled vehicles,and energy efficiency improvements across all end-use sectors.Next-generation nuclear power technologies,biofuels,energy storage,and hyd

73、ropower are other potential contributors.In addition to taking full advantage of existing cost-effective emission reduction measures,there is a need to advance non-CO2 greenhouse gas reduction technologies and to increase agricultural and forest carbon sinks in order to offset residual emissions fro

74、m hard-to-abate sectors1.Building upon these findings,the Harvard and Tsinghua teams coauthored the Joint Report on the Pathway to Carbon Neutrality between China and the United States,which was published on the website of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kenned

75、y School of Government.2 This report was supplemented by three“Research Briefs for Non-Specialists”on narrower technology topics disseminated by HCP,enhancing media coverage in both countries of specific Harvard-Tsinghua studies3.The Tsinghua teams dedicated work on Chinas decarbonization pathway ha

76、s laid a robust foundation for the follow-up flagship project Research on Chinas 2035 and medium-and long-term low-carbon development strategy in the context of carbon neutrality.In the second year,the Harvard Kennedy School team focused on policy research related to three key 1 He J,Zhang X,Li Z,et

77、 al.Comprehensive Report on Chinas Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategies and PathwaysJ.Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment.2020,18(4):263295.DOI:10.1016/j.cjpre.2021.04.004.2 Harvard-Tsinghua Joint Statement on Carbon-Neutrality Pathways for China and the United States.Harv

78、ard Kennedy School Belfer Center.January 2022.https:/www.belfercenter.org/publication/harvard-tsinghua-joint-statement-carbon-neutrality-pathways-china-and-united-states.3 See https:/chinaproject.harvard.edu/news/hcp-research-briefs-non-specialists Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on T

79、echnological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 4 technologies:1)the decarbonization of heating,2)green hydrogen,and 3)carbon dioxide capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS).Simultaneously,the Harvard-China Project team conducted an in-depth case study on the potential of green hydro

80、gen technology in Texas(a U.S.state with rich renewable energy resources and expansive existing hydrogen infrastructure)and led a supplemental workshop on decarbonizing hard-to-abate transportation modes.Concurrently,the Tsinghua research team focused on the key technological potentials and obstacle

81、s to achieving carbon neutrality,designing a comprehensive framework comprising five distinct topics:1)decarbonization of building heating,2)technology potential of hydrogen in the transportation sector,3)CCUS,4)costs and risks of a zero-carbon power grid,and 4)assessment on Chinas climate policy,as

82、 well as a synthesis report.At COP28 in Dubai,the Tsinghua team unveiled the major findings of its synthesis report and policy briefs,each focusing on specific topics.The team also invited scholars from the U.S.,the United Kingdom(U.K.),India,and other countries to conduct in-depth discussions on de

83、ep decarbonization technologies and international cooperation.This report is the summary of the second project year;it draws on research and findings from a series of workshops under this project.To provide a holistic perspective and deeper insights,the report also incorporates global progress and o

84、ffers a comparative analysis between China and the U.S.The report is structured as follows:Chapter 1 introduces the background and progress of the project;Chapter 2 provides an overview of global innovation and application of deep decarbonization technologies;Chapter 3 synthesizes the research on th

85、e decarbonization of building heating,hydrogen production and application,and CCUS deployment in China and the U.S.;Chapter 4 provides a preliminary assessment on climate policies in both countries;and Chapter 5 presents conclusions and policy recommendations.2.Innovation and application of deep dec

86、arbonization technology:an overview A carbon-neutral economy will be both capital-and technology-intensive,relying on a combination of conventional and breakthrough technologies.The International Energy Agency(IEA)underscores that more than half of the technologies needed for carbon neutrality by 20

87、50 are still in the research and development(R&D)and Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 5 demonstration stages.Active development and deployment of these technologies within the next decade is imperative to meet ambiti

88、ous climate targets4.However,the landscape is characterized by intense competition in technological innovation and commercialization among major global powers,while the imperative for green and low-carbon development has added an additional challenge for developing countries seeking to catch up.This

89、 unbalanced international pattern is gradually expanding.2.1 Highly concentrated global innovation A small number of economies have been dominating the global R&D and deployment of low-carbon energy technologies;simultaneously,the competition among major economies is escalating.Since 2016,there has

90、been a notable surge in the global public budget for low-carbon energy technology R&D and demonstrations,with an average annual growth rate of 7.6%(see figure 2-1).Despite this growth,a concentrated group of economies(including North America,Europe,Japan,South Korea,Australia,New Zealand,and China)a

91、ccounted for a staggering 97.5%of the global public budget for low-carbon energy technology R&D in 2021.China has become the second largest government supporter of energy R&D.Meanwhile,India has outpaced France,Germany,and Japan to become the third largest.The competition around government R&D spend

92、ing in the clean energy sector between China and the U.S.is particularly intense.Depending on the definition of clean energy,both countries have the potential to be the worlds largest clean energy investor5.4 IEA,2021.Net zero by 2050:a roadmap for the global energy sector.5 Zhang F,Gallagher K S,My

93、slikova Z,et al.2021.From fossil to low carbon:The evolution of global public energy innovation/Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change.DOI:10.1002/wcc.734.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 6 Figure 2-1 Global

94、public budget for low-carbon technology R&D areas by region(2015-2021)Source:Created by ICCSD,based on Energy Technology RD&D Budgets(IEA,2023 edition).The output of low-carbon technology innovation also exhibits a substantial imbalance.According to WIPO,green energy technologies patents are highly

95、concentrated in a small number of countries.Between 2005 and 2015,five major countriesJapan,the United States,Germany,China,and South Koreaaccounted for nearly 90%of green energy technology patent family applications,followed by other developed countries such as France,the Netherlands,and the United

96、 Kingdom6.In contrast,the share of developing countries is much smaller,with India,Brazil and South Africa each accounting for less than 1%,and most African countries having almost no patent applications7.Since 2012,global patents for low-carbon technologies have gradually shifted from energy supply

97、 technologies to end-use and enabling technologies(i.e.,hydrogen,cross-cutting technologies,etc.)as well as technologies with both low-carbon and broader applications(i.e.,information and communication technologies and artificial intelligence)8.In the realm of international standards development,abo

98、ut 78%of published standards come from three international bodies:the International Standards Organization(ISO),the International Electrotechnical Commission(IEC),and the Society of Automotive Engineers(SAE).The majority of the remaining standards 6 Rivera Len,L.,Bergquist,K.,Wunsch-Vincent,S.A.,Xu,

99、N.,&Fushim,K.2023.Measuring Innovation in Energy Technologies:Green Patents As Captured by WIPOs IPC Green Inventory.SSRN Electronic Journal.https:/doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4429912 7 World Intellectual Property Organization(WIPO).2023.World Intellectual Property Indicators 2023.https:/doi.org/10.34667/T

100、IND.48541 8 European Patent Office(EPO)&International Energy Agency(IEA).2021.Patents and the energy transition.Paris.https:/www.iea.org/reports/innovation-in-batteries-and-electricity-storage.055200021USD billion(2021)North AmericaJapan KoreaAustralia NewZealandEuro

101、peChinaRest of WorldTsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 7 come from the European Committee for Standardization(CEN)and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers(ASME).The concentration of global innovation hubs is an

102、other striking feature,primarily residing in a handful of economies.Out of the 120 innovation clusters worldwide,98 are located in Europe,with Munich(Germany),the Ruhr area(Germany),and Paris(France)comprising the three largest innovation clusters.The U.S.maintains its position as the center for cut

103、ting-edge and conventional energy technologies and has established collaborative R&D links with 21 other countries in the field of green hydrogen technology.In east Asia,China,Japan,and South Korea have cultivated innovation clusters focusing on batteries,hydrogen,and communication technology.An ana

104、lysis by Elsevier indicates that China has ascended to the worlds second largest patent holder and the largest paper publisher in the field of green patents,especially regarding information and communication technology and green transportation9.Taken together,the highly unbalanced global innovation

105、landscape poses a significant challenge for the widespread diffusion and transfer of deep decarbonization technology on a global scale.2.2 Slow progress on technology deployment By comparing different sectors,it is evident that certain sectors will decarbonize earlier than others due to differing ch

106、aracteristics and varying levels of technological maturity.The power sector is poised to decarbonize through the development of clean electricity generation and,through electrification,this sector will play a crucial role in partially decarbonizing additional end-use sectors such as land transport(i

107、.e.,roads and railways),buildings,and certain industries.Despite a variety of technical options for industrial decarbonization,large-scale deployment of these technologies has faltered due to insufficient technological maturity and high costs.Hard-to-abate sectors(such as agriculture,aviation,and sh

108、ipping)will rely heavily on breakthrough technologies and changes in consumer behavior to decarbonize.Although the speed of technological iteration in the ongoing scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation has accelerated,it is still far from the scale required by net-zero

109、 pathways.The IEAs Global Energy Transition Stocktake highlights that only a handful of technologies(such as 9 ELSEVIERS ANALYTICAL SERVICES.Pathways to Net Zero:The Impact of Clean Energy Research.(2021).https:/ University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy fo

110、r Climate Neutrality 8 photovoltaics,electric vehicles,and lighting)currently align with the pace of net-zero scenarios.More than half of technologies will require additional policy support and accelerated development,while over one-third are not on track,seriously lagging the level of deployment re

111、quired for achieving net-zero10.Notable inadequacies exist in low-and zero-emission technology development in the industrial sector,methane emission abatement technologies,heavy and long-haul transport,infrastructure-related district heating,and CCS(see figure 2-2).Addressing these gaps necessitate

112、not only increased investment and collaboration in scientific and technological innovation on an international scale,but also the acceleration low-carbon technology deployment and rapid reduction of technology costs,so as to promote the global clean and low-carbon transition.Figure 2-2 Technology la

113、ndscape and progress assessment in the net-zero emission scenario Source:IEA,2023.Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2023.3.Progress and challenges of deep decarbonization technologies in China and the United States 3.1 Decarbonization of building heating In 2022,heating and hot water accounted for near

114、ly half of global building energy consumption,resulting in direct emissions of 2.4 billion tons of CO2 and indirect emissions of 1.7 billion tons of CO2.Globally,60%of 10 IEA.2023.Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2023.Paris.https:/www.iea.org/reports/tracking-clean-energy-progress-2023#overview Tsingh

115、ua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 9 heating energy still originates from fossil fuels and about 40%of households need space heating for part of the year.Additionally,heating costs are a major component of household energy b

116、ills.Under the IEAs 2050 net-zero scenario,carbon emissions associated with building heating must be halved by 2030 through a combination of building envelope efficiency improvements,alternate fuels and technologies,and power sector decarbonization.In general,the net-zero scenario entails reducing t

117、he average energy intensity of global heating by about 4%per year before 2030,or double the average rate observed over the last decade11.Decarbonizing the building sector faces significant challenges due to the diverse and dispersed nature of thermal energy supply and utilization.The low-carbon tran

118、sition requires not only investments in new technologies and infrastructure renewal,but also the transformation of heating facilities in hundreds of millions of homes.A potential solution to these challenges is to reduce energy consumption by improving energy efficiency,improving thermal insulation,

119、and recycling waste heat.Additional solutions include more efficient utilization of thermal energy,the adoption of specific zero-or low-carbon heating technologies,and the adoption of new technologies for heat storage and transmission.Countries are deploying key technologies including heat pumps,ele

120、ctric boilers,renewable thermal energy storage,and hydrogen.The challenges are even greater in the field of district heating,due to the large-scale energy supply required.One approach is to continue using fossil fuels while eliminating some CO2 emissions through CCUS.Another approach involves using

121、alternative fuels,such as low-carbon electricity,biomass,and other sustainable heat sources.In addition,innovative technologies are constantly emerging that will shape the future landscape of thermal energy storage,transportation,and distribution.This dynamic environment is shaping new thermal energ

122、y supply chains and business models12.While gas boilers still dominate global household heating markets,efficient and low-carbon heating technologies are emerging.At present,over 30 countries have introduced subsidies for heat pumps;heat pump sales accounted for 10%of the global heating market share

123、 in 2021,and global sales of heat pumps grew by 11%in 2022.Under the IEAs net-zero scenario,the global heat pump stock would almost triple by 2030,covering at least 20%of global heating needs.Therefore,further policy support and technical 11 IEA,2023.Energy system/Buildings/Heat pumps.https:/www.iea

124、.org/energy-system/buildings/heating 12 The Royal Society,2021.Low-carbon heating and cooling:what science and technology can do to tackle the worlds largest source of carbon emissions.https:/royalsociety.org/climate-science-solution Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Sy

125、stems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 10 innovation are required to meet this goal13.(1)Decarbonization of building heating in the United States Direct energy use of fossil fuels accounts for 13%of U.S.greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector.About 110 million U.S.households use

126、distributed systems for space heating.Of the total fuel used for heating,natural gas accounts for about half,electricity accounts for about one-third,and other fuels(such as oil,propane,firewood,and kerosene)account for a relatively small share.Regional variations are significant.In the south,the he

127、ating supply is dominated by electricity,accounting for two-thirds of the total share.In the central and western regions,natural gas comprises up to three-quarters of heating energy.Natural gas also holds a majority share in both the west and northeast.In the southeast,heat pumps have become common

128、heating appliances.In 2015,around 10%of U.S.homes used air-source heat pumps for heating;in 2020 this proportion grew to 13%14.Since the Biden administration took office,the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law(BIL)and the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)have provided substantial support for clean energy resea

129、rch,development,manufacturing,and infrastructure construction.Reducing the costs of the energy transition for U.S.homes is one of the IRAs key goals,with$8.5 billion in tax rebates allocated to support home electrification and energy conservation retrofits and another$837 million to improve energy e

130、fficiency in affordable housing accompanied with subsidized loans for low-income properties.In addition,tax credits are provided to consumers to support home electrification,energy-efficient retrofits,and clean vehicle purchases.According to estimates by the U.S.Department of Energy(DOE),these measu

131、res could reduce the costs of energy conservation retrofits and renewable installations by as much as 30 percent per household15.Heat pumps play an important role,reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50%compared to gas boilers.The main advantage of heat pumps lies in their high efficiency,producing

132、more energy in the form of heat as 13 IEA.2023.Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2023.Paris.https:/www.iea.org/reports/tracking-clean-energy-progress-2023#overview 14 U.S.Energy Information Administration.2023.Highlights for space heating in U.S.homes by state,2020.https:/www.eia.gov/consumption/reside

133、ntial/data/2020/state/pdf/State%20Space%20Heating.pdf 15 FACT SHEET:One Year In,President Bidens Inflation Reduction Act is Driving Historic Climate Action and Investing in America to Create Good Paying Jobs and Reduce Costs.White House.August 16,2023.Https:/www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statemen

134、ts-releases/2023/08/16/fact-sheet-one-year-in-president-bidens-inflation-reduction-act-is-driving-historic-climate-action-and-investing-in-america-to-create-good-paying-jobs-and-reduce-costs/Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neu

135、trality 11 compared to the amount of electricity needed to operate the pump.While heat pumps demonstrate remarkable efficiency,its important to note that their performance is influenced by various factors,including the specific heat pump model,the temperature at which heat is produced,and the outdoo

136、r temperature.As the latter decrease,the heat pumps efficiency will also decrease.In extremely cold weather conditions,using heat pumps for indoor heating remains challenging.According to a Princeton University study on the U.S.net-zero pathway,electricity will almost completely replace natural gas

137、for heating and cooking in the U.S.by 2050;furthermore,air-source heat pumps are projected to become the dominant heating technology.Since heat pump efficiency is correlated with ambient temperature,heat pump penetration is higher in the Southern US than in the North,reaching 83%in Florida and 76%in

138、 Wisconsin and Minnesota16.However,the Harvard team argues that there are challenges associated with achieving such high penetration rates.Particularly in colder climates,where winter temperatures are very low,the switch from natural gas to heat pumps could lead to an increase in household energy co

139、sts.A soon to be published study on U.S.heating from the Harvard team indicates that using heat pumps to replace natural gas heating would significantly increase heating costs(excluding capital costs)17.These costs would rise in almost all states,with an increase of approximately 1.5-2 times in cold

140、 northern regions.Without either a carbon tax or significant subsidies the rate of heat pump adoption in northern climates will remain slow.Possible technological solutions to decarbonize the U.S.heating systems include:-Use alternative energy sources,such as hydrogen or biomass;however,the cost and

141、 scalability of these technologies remain challenging.-Replace air source heat pumps with ground source heat pumps,which can improve the performance coefficient.However,the capital investment for ground source heat pumps is extremely high,with the current prices around$20,000 per household.16 Larson

142、 Eric,Chris Greig,Jesse Jenkins,Erin Mayfield,Andrew Pascale,Chuan Zhang,Joshua Drossman,et al.2021.“Net-Zero America:Potential Pathways,Infrastructure,and Impacts.”https:/netzeroamerica.princeton.edu.17 Daniel Schrag.2022.Challenges to electrification of heating in the Northern U.S.Harvard-Tsinghua

143、 Workshop on Heating and Cooling Buildings in a low-carbon world.May 24,2022.(Unpublished)Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 12-Store heat energy when electricity prices are low and release it during high-price periods

144、,which are most viable.An example would be storing power from solar power at midday and discharging the electricity in the early evening.However,this option would be difficult to achieve without real-time pricing in the electricity market.Furthermore,low-grade heat storage technology is not mature,n

145、ecessitating the development of materials that can absorb and store low-grade thermal energy.Case study:Building Decarbonization in Massachusetts Massachusetts has set a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50%by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.At present,the states power secto

146、r has nearly achieved its target of 50%clean power,with current clean power penetration at 48.2%18;additionally,building sector emissions stem mainly from natural gas,propane,and other heating fuels.In terms of heating decarbonization,it is necessary to improve building airtightness,which involves r

147、enovating existing buildings with effective insulation.In the next 20-30 years,new buildings in Massachusetts and the Northeast will represent only 20-30%of building stock,and most of the investment in additional savings will have to come from retrofitting existing buildings.Investments in air sourc

148、e heat pumps and geothermal energy(more expensive)will increase.Finally,there is a need for deep decarbonization of the power grid.While the current power system will be able to cope with demand increases by 2030,modifications to the system will be required after 2030 to meet peak demand during the

149、summer months.To decarbonize the building sector by 2050,60%-70%of households will need to rely solely on air-source heat pumps for heating.To meet the states 2050 targets,the emissions reduction curve will be very steep,and likely quite costly.(2)Decarbonization of the building sector in China Acco

150、rding to the Building Energy Conservation Research Center at Tsinghua University,in 2021,Chinas building sector carbon emissions reached 2.2 billion tons,with direct carbon emissions of 510 million tons(23%),electricity-related indirect carbon emissions of 1.24 billion tons(57%),and heat-related ind

151、irect carbon emissions of 430 million tons(20%)19.District heating and energy demand in the northern region 18 State of Massachusetts.2023.“Massachusetts Climate Report Card Power Decarbonization.”https:/www.mass.gov/info-details/massachusetts-climate-report-card-power-decarbonization 19 Building En

152、ergy Conservation Research Center at Tsinghua University,Annual report on building energy conservation in China 2023(Special topic on urban energy system).Beijing:China Architecture and Building Press.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for C

153、limate Neutrality 13 have continued to grow,while the heating energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit area have continued to decline.In the 15 northern provinces urban heating sector,coal remains the dominant energy source,accounting for 58%of heating energy consumption.Other sources includ

154、e natural gas(14%),biomass(15%),electricity(8%),and less-utilized sources,such as geothermal and industrial waste heat(5%).Co-generation units for heat and power and coal-fired boilers are the most common ways to provide heat.The climatic transition zone in southern China and some alpine regions als

155、o exhibit a demand for heating through distributed electric heating,household air conditioners,and small electric heaters.In addition,China has the worlds largest central heating ring network,with 426,000 kilometers of heating network pipelines in 202020.In 2006,China began to install meters to meas

156、ure the heat energy consumed by buildings.The National Energy Administrations 11th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development,issued in 2007,not only outlined a shift from distributed boilers to district heating,but also introduced new energy-saving standards for combined heat and power.The 12th Five-Yea

157、r Plan for Energy Development,issued in 2013,required the development of natural gas cogeneration and the construction of heat networks.The 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development,released in 2017,proposed to promote combined heat and power and cooling,biomass combined heat and power,geothermal h

158、eating,and low-grade waste heat heating.Since the 12th Five-Year Plan(FYP)period,clean heating in northern China emerged as a policy priority,leading to a series of policies to promote clean heating and pollution control.Notably,clean heating sources in northern China have become predominantly chara

159、cterized by ultra-low emission21 coal-fired cogeneration,supplemented by natural gas and other heat sources.Research on low-carbon transition of combined heat and power in Northeast China In 2019,72%of Chinas electricity supply came from thermal power,and 65%of its heat supply came from cogeneration

160、 units.In the northern regions(notably the northeast),where the winter heating season spans 20 Hongchun Zhou,2022.China Clean Heating Industry Development Report 2022.Beijing:China Economic Press.21 Flue gas ultra-low emission engineering of coal-fired power plant:under the condition of 6%benchmark

161、oxygen content,the mass concentrations of particulate matter SO2 and NOx emissions in the standard dry flue gas of coal-fired power plants are not higher than 10 mg/m3,35 mg/m3 and 50 mg/m3,respectively,referred to as ultra-low emissions(National Environment Protection Standard HJ 2053-2018).Tsinghu

162、a University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 14 six months,approximately 70%of coal-fired power units are cogeneration units22.The Chinese governments 2022 Clean Heating Plan for Northern China encourages the conversion of existing coa

163、l-fired power units into cogeneration units.Therefore,any examination of Chinas power system transformation,particularly the transformation of coal-fired power generation units in northern China,must consider both power supply and heat supply.Compared with other heating methods,coal-fired cogenerati

164、on units present significant advantages.The heating cost of cogeneration units is quite low,standing at only 82%of the heating cost of coal-fired boilers,21%of the cost of electric heating,and 35%of the cost of natural gas heating23.Additionally,the controllability of cogeneration units,coupled with

165、 the simultaneous supply of heat and power,enhances overall efficiency.The simultaneous supply of heat and electricity supply in the form of combined heat and power CHP,with heat and electricity storage,can protect the energy system against systematic shocks caused by the integration of intermittent

166、 renewable energy.The challenge lies in increasing the systems complexity and deploying new technologies.The Tsinghua team demonstrated that wind power will play a crucial role in Northeast Chinas energy transition and underscored the need to integrate power and heating systems when planning for low

167、-carbon energy system transitions.The CHP unit is a key technology to achieve clean heating in China and should be prioritized in the early stage of the energy transition.Different processing modes for coal-fired units could lead to huge cost variations in the energy transition of Northeast China.Ho

168、wever,attaching CHP units to coal-fired units could reduce the total transition cost by around 16%and avoid stranding coal assets.Additionally,allowing new coal-fired units to be built could reduce the total transition cost by about 20%.Therefore,achieving carbon neutrality within 30 years in Northe

169、ast China entails retaining a portion of coal-fired units by retrofitting them as CHP units and adding carbon capture technologies,thereby ensuring a cost-effective low-carbon transition.A comprehensive and integrated energy system planning approach holds promise for realizing a sustainable and low-

170、carbon energy transition in the Northeast.The potential of heat pumps in the decarbonization of building sector in China China is the worlds largest heat pump manufacturer and exporter,producing about 40%of the worlds heat 22 Zheng,W.,Zhang,Y.,Xia,J.,Jiang Y.“Cleaner heating in Northern China:potent

171、ials and regional balances.”Resources,Conservation and Recycling,Vol.160,September 2020,p.104897.doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104897.23 Xu,L.,Li,J.“Cost analysis of several commonly used heating methods.”Heating and cooling,vol.2,2019,p.23-24.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technol

172、ogical Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 15 pumps in 2022 and selling about one million heat pumps in the domestic market.In northern urban areas,district heating remains prevalent;on the other hand,due to milder winters,air source heat pumps are commonly used for space heating in

173、 southern China24.The adoption of heat pumps is currently below 10%,with coal-fired and gas-fired boilers accounting for about 40%and the combined heat and power units comprising about 50%.In addition,less than 2%of heat pumps are used as water heaters.According to the research of Building Energy Co

174、nservation Research Center at Tsinghua University,there is still a great potential for heat pumps tapped for space heating and hot water.By 2060,replacing fossil fuel boilers with heat pumps at a high growth rate could reduce about 795 million tons of CO2e,constituting 67%of all building heating emi

175、ssions25.Heat pumps exhibit a huge potential to reduce emissions in Chinas building sector,thereby necessitating a concerted effort to drive technology innovation and deployment.Innovation needs span four key dimensions:1)improving the energy efficiency of heat pumps,2)exploring alternatives to fluo

176、ride refrigerants,3)enhancing the interaction between heat pumps and the grid to facilitate demand-side response,4)and incorporating more sustainable renewable energy sources.Air-source heat pump technology innovation can benefit from high-efficiency compressors(e.g.,scroll compressors),advanced def

177、rost technology,and new cycle technology of azeotropic refrigerants.For mixed-source heat pumps,combining air,geothermal,and solar energy should be considered to improve performance.The efficiency of ground source heat pumps can be increased by 50%compared to ordinary heat pumps,and pipeline depths

178、can reach 2000-3000 meters26.In addition,there is ample room for enhancing the cooling efficiency of heat pumps.While large central heating systems are prevalent in northern China,the vast majority of residential and commercial buildings in the U.S.use separate heating systems,spurring unique proble

179、ms for building decarbonization.As a result,the technological challenges are relatively straightforward and include the scale of energy-efficient retrofits in existing buildings,the high cost of clean heating technologies(such as heat pumps),and the decarbonization of power systems.From a policy per

180、spective,the IRA provides considerable subsidies that can reduce the cost of energy-efficiency renovation and building electrification 24 IEA(2023),Global heat pump sales continue double-digit growth,IEA,Paris.https:/www.iea.org/commentaries/global-heat-pump-sales-continue-double-digit-growth,Licens

181、e:CC BY 4.0 25 Building Energy Conservation Research Center at Tsinghua University.2021.Annual report on building energy conservation in China 2021.Beijing:China Architecture and Building Press.26 Ibid.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for

182、Climate Neutrality 16 by 5-30%.On the other hand,decarbonization options for urban district heating in northern China,especially in the frigid Northeast region,are still under discussion.According to research from the Tsinghua team,cogeneration unit heating with carbon capture facilities is the most

183、 economical and feasible technology to reduce emissions from heating.This pathway will require China to retain a portion of its coal-fired units for heating.Both countries grapple with the challenge of high costs in promoting heat pump heating technology,relying on technology and policy advancements

184、 to foster the use of heat pump technology.3.2 Hydrogen from renewable sources Since the Japanese government released the worlds first national hydrogen strategy in 2017,more than 40 countries have issued hydrogen energy strategies(as of July 2023).The era of carbon neutrality has fostered new oppor

185、tunities for the production and application of hydrogen.As the global technological pathway to carbon neutrality becomes clearer,clean hydrogen is emerging as an option to advance electrification and serve as an energy source to support decarbonization efforts.Current hydrogen production emphasizes

186、low-carbon hydrogen(hereafter referred to as clean hydrogen)in the short-to-medium term with a transition to green hydrogen in the longer term.Hydrogen applications are gradually narrowing focusing on hard-to-abate sectors that cannot be electrified,such as industrial high-temperature thermal proces

187、ses,carbon-based fuel and feedstock substitution,and zero-emission aviation and shipping.The storage and transportation of hydrogen using existing infrastructure is being considered in several countries;for example,Europe has identified pipeline transportation and focuses on retrofitting existing ga

188、s pipelines to accommodate hydrogen transportation.Hydrogen is expected to play an important role in transitioning towards global carbon neutrality,but a large gap remains between current clean hydrogen production and projected future demand.Despite optimistic forecasts for future hydrogen supply an

189、d demand,2022 total global clean hydrogen production was less than 1 million tons27.Projections for Chinas 2060 hydrogen consumption range from 90 million tons to 130 million tons28.Clean hydrogen by 2050 could reduce U.S.economy-wide emissions by 10%from 2005 27 IEA(2023),Global Hydrogen Review 202

190、3.IEA,Paris.https:/ 28 China Hydrogen Association.2021.Report on hydrogen and fuel cell development in China(2021).Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 17 levels29.At present,hydrogen production predominantly relies on f

191、ossil fuels,with consumption primarily concentrated in traditional industrial applications;however,infrastructure development is accelerating.In 2022,global hydrogen production was around 95 million tons(see Figure 3-1).Of this figure,clean hydrogen production accounted for less than 1%of total supp

192、ly while hydrogen as a by-product of petrochemical production represented about 14.8%.The remaining 84.3%was sourced from fossil fuels,of which 70%was produced from natural gas and about 30%from coal.On the demand side,in 2022 global hydrogen demand increased by nearly 3%compared with 2021,driven pr

193、imarily by traditional industrial applications such as refining,synthetic ammonia,methanol,and steel industries.New applications,such as road transportation,accounted for only 0.1%of the demand30.In the context of manufacturing and infrastructure,by the end of 2022,global electrolyzer capacity stood

194、 at about 700MW with approximately 1,070 hydrogen refueling stations in operation and around 4,600 kilometers of hydrogen pipelines worldwide.Figure 3-1 Global hydrogen production and demand(2022)Source:Created by ICCSD,based on IEA data.Clean hydrogen is already dominating proposed new investment p

195、rojects.Proposals to invest in green hydrogen investments rose from$240 billion to$320 billion over an eight-month period,ending in January 2023,with 1,046 hydrogen projects announced.About 50%of the new projects focus on large-scale industrial hydrogen applications and about 20%are related to trans

196、portation.There are 112 GW-scale 29 U.S.National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap,2023.https:/www.hydrogen.energy.gov/docs/hydrogenprogramlibraries/pdfs/us-national-clean-hydrogen-strategy-roadmap.pdf 30 IEA,2023.Hydrogen,https:/www.iea.org/energy-system/low-emission-fuels/hydrogen SupplyFossil f

197、uelswithout CCUSBy-productFossil fuels withCCUSElectricityBioenergyDemand RefiningAmmoniaMethanolIron&steelOtherTsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 18 hydrogen production projects,of which 91 are green hydrogen projects

198、 and 21 are blue hydrogen projects31.Even if all these proposals became real facilities,there remains a considerable gap between the scale of announced investments and the necessary demand in the net-zero scenario.To align with net zero,hydrogen demand will need to reach more than 150 million tons b

199、y 2030,with about 30%of that demand arising from new applications.As such,the ratio of clean hydrogen production to total hydrogen production will need to exceed 50%,which in turn requires the massive deployment of new renewable electricity capacity to serve green hydrogen production32.(1)The future

200、 geopolitical landscape of hydrogen The global transition towards a low-carbon economy will significantly reshape existing energy supply and demand dynamics.The Harvard teams research on hydrogens geopolitical landscape concludes that hydrogens geopolitics and markets will bear resemblance to those

201、of natural gas.Specifically,the geopolitical landscape for green hydrogen will be determined by factors related to hydrogen electrolysis:1)renewable energy resource endowment,2)freshwater availability,and 3)potential infrastructure development.The study suggests that the U.S.,Canada,and Australia wi

202、ll become global champions in hydrogen exports due to their favorable conditions for renewable energy,water,and infrastructure.Although China possesses abundant renewable energy,its potential for hydrogen export is constrained by its uneven distribution of water resources.The U.S.is positioned to em

203、erge as an export leader in the global green hydrogen industry value chain,provided it focuses on value chain development in areas such as green ammonia,ethanol,and steel production;the U.S.must also effectively overcome cost and infrastructure accessibility challenges33.When considering both green

204、hydrogen production and industrial applications,the geopolitical landscape is uneven.The Harvard team applies three key criteria(resource endowment,scale and level of existing industries,and economic relevance)to predict the role that countries may play in future hydrogen markets.The analysis shows

205、that the potential for the leadership in green hydrogen production and industrial applications is unevenly distributed across the globe.The evolving landscape may include frontrunners,31 Hydrogen Council,McKinsey&Company.Hydrogen Insights 2023.32 IEA.2023.Hydrogen,https:/www.iea.org/energy-system/lo

206、w-emission-fuels/hydrogen 33 De Blasio,Nicola,Fridolin Pflugmann,Henry Lee,Charles Hua,Alejandro Nuez-Jimenez,and Phoebe Fallon.“Mission Hydrogen:Accelerating the Transition to a Low Carbon Economy.”Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,Harvard Kennedy School,October 29,2021.Tsinghua U

207、niversity Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 19 upgraders,exporters,importers,and outsiders.As leaders in both green hydrogen production and industrial applications,the U.S.and China are positioned to become frontrunners in the future gre

208、en hydrogen economy;they also lead in industrial applications such as ammonia,methanol,and steel production.Other resource-rich countries,such as Mexico and Thailand,have the opportunity to ascend along the value chain and compete with import-dependent industrial powerhouses for jobs and market shar

209、e34.Figure 3-2 Global green hydrogen geopolitics and market landscape in consideration of production and industrial applications Note:Industrial applications of green hydrogen include ammonia,methanol,and steel production.Source：Laima Eicke,Nicola De Blasio.Green hydrogen value chains in the industr

210、ial sectorGeopolitical and market implications,Energy Research&Social Science,Volume 93,2022,102847,https:/doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102847.(2)Hydrogen development and policies in the United States North America(i.e.the U.S.and Canada)houses the worlds second-largest hydrogen market,with the U.S.c

211、urrently contributing about 10%of global production,all of which is grey hydrogen produced through natural gas-methanol reforming.The primary U.S.sectors utilizing hydrogen include ammonia and methanol production(35%),oil refining(55%)and metallurgy(2%).Furthermore,the U.S.is implementing various ne

212、w end-use applications,including“more than 50,000 fuel cell forklifts,nearly 50 retail hydrogen refueling stations,over 80 fuel cell buses,more than 15,000 fuel cell vehicles,and over 500 megawatts(MW)of fuel 34 Eicke,Laima and Nicola De Blasio.“The Future of Green Hydrogen Value Chains:Geopolitical

213、 and Market Implications in the Industrial Sector.”Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,Harvard Kennedy School,October 5,2022.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 20 cells for stationery and backup power”3

214、5.Operating at the forefront of hydrogen technology research and development,the U.S.released an early hydrogen roadmap in 2002.However,from 2011 to 2020,the number of relevant patent applications filed in the U.S.gradually fell behind that of Europe and Japan.In 2020,the DOE issued the Hydrogen Ene

215、rgy Development Plan,outlining a strategic framework for hydrogen R&D demonstrations over the following 10 years.Benefitting from supportive policies such as BIL and IRA,the U.S.is poised to increase hydrogen investment,with the scale of announced hydrogen projects surpassing that of any other count

216、ry.In 2023,the DOE unveiled the National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap,defining hydrogen as a diversified energy carrier and chemical feedstock.The Roadmap focuses on accelerating the commercialization of clean hydrogen production,fostering the development of the entire hydrogen supply chain,c

217、ultivating new industries,and creating jobs.The proposed strategy emphasizes clean hydrogen as a preferred technology route,proposing a stringent carbon intensity standard(carbon intensity 2 kgCO2e/kgH2,on site)and cost target($2/kgH2)by 2026.Clean hydrogen penetration in various end-use sectors wil

218、l be impacted by market dynamics,alternative technological solutions,policy support,and the cost of market entry.If all of the proposed initiatives were successful,clean hydrogen could reduce U.S.economy-wide emissions by 10%relative to 2005 levels36.Moreover,the National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and

219、 Roadmap,a part of the BIL enacted in 2022,meticulously addresses features of hydrogen development,including supply,demand,emissions,jobs,infrastructure,policies,and investments.The BIL emphasizes bolstering Research,Demonstration,and Development(RD&D).The legislation includes support for clean hydr

220、ogen standards,the establishment of seven regional clean hydrogen hubs(valued at US$7 billion),electrolysis technology RD&D(US$1 billion),and manufacturing and recycling RD&D(US$500 million).Meanwhile,the IRA promotes mass manufacturing and applications through industrial project demonstrations,port

221、 infrastructure decarbonization(US$2.25 billion),and clean heavy-duty truck manufacturing(US$1 billion).The IRA also introduces tax credits for infrastructure construction,CCUS technology,clean hydrogen production,aviation fuel production,and other areas.In summary,the current supportive measures en

222、compass R&D 35 U.S.National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap,2023.https:/www.hydrogen.energy.gov/docs/hydrogenprogramlibraries/pdfs/us-national-clean-hydrogen-strategy-roadmap.pdf 36 Ibid.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neu

223、trality 21 investments for cleaner manufacturing,supply-side incentives(i.e.tax credits),and demand-side incentives(i.e.government green procurement and infrastructure development).U.S.clean hydrogen development faces several key challenges,including the effectiveness of utilizing of R&D investments

224、;the need for industries and enterprises to prepare projects that attract capital inflows;public resistance to pipeline construction;and increasing renewable energy penetration into the power grid.Furthermore,some complex supportive policies,such as application and bidding processes,have slowed poli

225、cy implementation.For the U.S.,the primary short-term low-hanging fruit lies in hydrogen used for steel and ammonia production,in which traditional hydrogen can be transitioned to green hydrogen.Ammonia,in particular,holds promise for applications in the marine transportation industry.(3)Hydrogen de

226、velopment and policies in China China is the worlds largest producer and consumer of hydrogen,producing about 33 million tons in 2021.China is also the largest market for hydrogen production equipment and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.Currently,hydrogen production relies predominantly on fossil fuel,w

227、ith coal-to-hydrogen,oil-to-hydrogen,and natural-gas-to-hydrogen accounting for more than 70%of all production;industrial by-product hydrogen comprises about 28%.On the demand side,hydrogen is mainly used as a raw material for oil refining(25%),methanol production(27%),and ammonia synthesis(32%),wit

228、h limited fuel applications37.The development of Chinas clean hydrogen industry is gaining momentum,with new projects concentrated in the transportation and industrial sectors.The supply and applications of clean hydrogen are not yet cost-competitive.Notably,the economics of renewable-based hydrogen

229、 require improvement.Presently,the cost of green hydrogen(particularly photovoltaic hydrogen production)remains considerably higher than that of gray hydrogen.The levelized cost of green hydrogen production can reach 60 yuan/kgH2,which is about 2-3 times the cost of coal-to-hydrogen production38.The

230、 characteristics of hydrogen supply systems differ due to variations in production devices,storage facilities,and regional transportation modes.On the other hand,blue hydrogen 37 China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance.2021.China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Indus

231、try Development Report 2020-A low-carbon and clean hydrogen supply system under the carbon neutrality strategy.Beijing:Peoples Daily Publishing House.38 Wang Y.,Zhou S.,Zhou X.,Ou X.2021.Cost analysis of different hydrogen production methods in China.China Energy.Vol(5):29-37.Tsinghua University Har

232、vard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 22 enjoys more centralized production facilities and greater storage capacity.Furthermore,the initial deployment of blue hydrogen,at scale,can lead to a smoother transition to green hydrogen in certain sect

233、ors.However,this strategy risks creating mismatched infrastructure connections,asset stranding,and unstable hydrogen supply in the future.Therefore,the strategic design for Chinas hydrogen development should begin with green hydrogen considerations and emphasize the production of hydrogen from renew

234、able energy sources.Figure 3-3 Cost of hydrogen production for different methods in China Notes：(1)Data from EV 100 and China Hydrogen Association；NG price：15 yuan/Nm3;electricity price:0.10.6 yuan/kWh;Coal price：2001000 yuan/t.(2)PEM:Proton Exchange Membrane electrolyzer;AE:Alkaline Electrolyzer.Cu

235、rrently,there are three standard modes of hydrogen transportation in China:1)high-pressure gaseous trailers,2)liquid hydrogen tankers,and 3)pipelines.Of these,high-pressure gaseous storage and transportation dominates,commonly utilizing 20MPa gaseous high-pressure hydrogen storage and cluster tube t

236、rucks.The development of storage and transportation at 30MPa gaseous and higher is currently underway.While liquid hydrogen tankers have been used,they are more suitable for long-distance transportation exceeding 200km due to their high costs(see figure 3-4).While China has explored the feasibility

237、of hydrogen transportation via natural gas pipelines,pipeline construction still faces challenges including high investment costs and insufficient application scenarios.At present,Chinas hydrogen transportation relies on high-pressure gaseous trailers for short-distance hydrogen distribution.1232.12

238、4.326.948.540625.87.514.620.59.200Coal-basedCoal+CCSGas-basedGas+CCSPEMAEYuan/kg Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 23 Figure 3-4 Cost of hydrogen storage and transportation by category in China Notes：(1)Dat

239、a from Tsinghua University&China Automotive Technology and Research Center(CATARC),2021.(2)Fixed costs include depreciation,personnel costs,vehicle insurance premiums,and liquefaction process costs;Variable costs are highly correlated with transportation distances,including vehicle maintenance costs

240、,tolls,fuel costs,etc.The industrial sector may be a significant customer for green hydrogen.In 2020,Chinas major industrial sectors(steel,cement,petrochemicals,industrial heating,industrial boilers,and building materials)accounted for about half of national carbon emissions.According to the China H

241、ydrogen Alliance,by 2060,60%of Chinas hydrogen demand will come from industry and 31%from transportation39.Replacing gray hydrogen with green hydrogen in the chemical industry could substantially reduce industrial carbon emissions;several demonstration projects are already underway.At present,green

242、hydrogen applications within the chemical industry still face challenges in the forms of high costs and limited supplies.In steel production,two technology routes for green steel existpartial and complete hydrogen usage.Currently,most demonstration projects in China partially use hydrogen,utilizing

243、hydrogen-rich gas for direct emission reductions.Transportation represents a crucial sector for potential large-scale hydrogen application,with fuel cell vehicles representing a core technological route.Hydrogen fuel cells are mainly deployed for medium-and heavy-duty vehicles as well as long-distan

244、ce road transportation,thereby replacing diesel-based heavy-duty trucks and buses.This transition will aim to decarbonize road transportation through the complementary use 39China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry Innovation Strategic Alliance.2021.China Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry D

245、evelopment Report 2020-A low-carbon and clean hydrogen supply system under the carbon neutrality strategy.Beijing:Peoples Daily Publishing House.5.3205.3205.3204.20.410.60.9171.50510152025Trailer-20MpaTank-liquidTrailer-20MpaTank-liquidTrailer-20MpaTank-liquid200 km500 km800 kmYuan/kg Tsinghua Unive

246、rsity Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 24 of hydrogen and electricity.It is estimated that by 2030,the overall cost of hydrogen-fueled heavy-duty trucks(including the costs of hydrogen energy,vehicles,and maintenance)will be roughly equ

247、ivalent to that of their diesel-fueled counterparts.Hydrogen fuel cell technology is also expected to find applications in other transportation areas,including ships for inland shipping(catering to inland waterway freight),fixed-line ferries,offshore vessels,cruise ships,and more.Experimental applic

248、ations of hydrogen fuel cells in rail vehicles,aircraft,drones,and other fields are underway.Furthermore,hydrogen fuel cell storage and power generation methods are in the demonstration stages,primarily in off-grid scenarios such as base stations.China entered the global hydrogen development arena r

249、elatively late.For example,the Energy Science and Technology Innovation Strategy first highlighted hydrogen energy and fuel cell as a strategic direction for energy science and technological innovation in 2014.In 2019,the central government incorporated hydrogen development into the Government Work

250、Report for the first time.The Medium and Long-term Plan for the Hydrogen Energy Industry(2021-2035),issued in 2022,highlighted hydrogen as an integral component of the future national energy system.It identified hydrogen as an important carrier for the green and low-carbon transformation of end-use

251、sectors and as an alternative energy source for strategic and emerging industries,with a focus on the development of green hydrogen and industrial by-product hydrogen.The targets established for the hydrogen industry included developing core technologies and manufacturing process by 2025,delivering

252、approximately 50,000 fuel cell vehicles,increasing green hydrogen production capacity to 100,000-200,000 tons/year,and reducing CO2 emissions by 1-2 million tons/year.Looking ahead to 2035,the Plan calls for the completion of a technological innovation system,significantly increasing the consumption

253、 of green hydrogen in end-use sectors40.The Chinese central government has issued about 50 policies on hydrogen development,covering such areas as scientific and technological RD&D,clean production,industry development,fuel cell vehicle demonstration,and standardization41.In terms of financial suppo

254、rt policies,city clusters demonstrating fuel cell vehicles can receive four consecutive years of support.The subsidy cap for a single city cluster is estimated to be about 1.7 billion yuan.40 National Development and Reform Commission,National Energy Bureau.2022.Medium and Long-term Plan for the Hyd

255、rogen Energy Industry(2021-2035).41 Zhang,Y.W.,Zhang Z.(2022).Diversified Incentive System Drives Sustainable Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry.China Energy,No.9,2022.(in Chinese)Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutr

256、ality 25 As of the end of 2022,21 provinces and 69 cities have proposed hydrogen development targets,accompanied by corresponding policies.An in-depth study analyzing 122 policy documents from 39 cities in China found that cities could be pivotal early contributors to the switch to hydrogen fuels by

257、 driving technological innovation and laying the groundwork for future transitions.However,city-level support is focused on infrastructure development,and only half of the cities have enacted policies to support technological innovation.Additionally,current uses of hydrogen are concentrated primaril

258、y on the transport sector.Overall,city-level initiatives need to more effectively steer the transition towards clean hydrogen42.Chinas hydrogen development faces multiple challenges,including limited water availability for large-scale production;regional mismatch between green hydrogen production an

259、d consumption;and lack of strategic design for production infrastructure,storage,and transportation.While the industrial sector is a crucial source of green hydrogen demand,current policies emphasize hydrogen as a transportation fuel.Insufficient policy support for the development of blue and green

260、hydrogen persists.There is a misalignment between the optimal technological route and governmental goals for hydrogen development.Therefore,new business models and international cooperation mechanisms must be further developed.Case study:A grid-friendly new energy hydrogen production pathway for dec

261、arbonization in the chemical industry In 2020,Chinas chemical industry accounted for about 13.4%of total carbon emissions.Hydrogen is used in reaction processes such as hydroprocessing,hydrocracking,and desulfurization in petroleum refining,ammonia synthesis,methanol synthesis,and modern coal chemic

262、al processes.Green hydrogen is poised to play a vital role in the decarbonization of the chemical industry.The intermittent nature of wind and solar power coupled with the need for precise temperature and pressure conditions in chemical manufacturing suggests that Green flexible chemical electrifica

263、tion(GFCE)may be a viable option.Technical advances will involve balancing production and consumption through grid exchange,employing advanced process control equipment in the chemical industry to respond to fluctuations in the production of power,and enhancing system flexibility with larger electro

264、lyzers and longer-lasting hydrogen buffer tanks.This topic is the subject of a collaborative study by Tsinghua and Harvard resulting from a presentation in one of our 42 Peng,Y.,Bai,X.(2022).Cities leading hydrogen energy development:the pledges and strategies of 39 Chinese cities.npj Urban Sustaina

265、bility,2(1),22.https:/doi.org/10.1038/s42949-022-00067-9 Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 26 workshops.43 In most Chinese regions,GFCE technology offers advantages over CCS technology based on the levelized cost of e

266、mission reductions,with costs turning negative in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang.While CCS applies primarily to the power or chemical sectors,GFCE offers the flexibility to connect the power and chemical industries.Even without carbon pricing,green ammonia proves economically viable in some provinces,s

267、uch as Hebei.In other regions,green ammonia will need to be supported by carbon pricing.Thus,greater amounts of investment remain necessary,supported by government subsidies and carbon pricing incentives44.Hydrogen challenges faced by China and the U.S.share similar challenges,such as technology imm

268、aturity,high costs,limited market demand,and insufficient infrastructure.As a result,both countries are implementing targeted measures to address these challenges,such as supporting greater amounts of RD&D to accelerate technology commercialization,encouraging mass production,stimulating market dema

269、nd through subsidies,supporting infrastructure development,and fostering international cooperation.While the U.S has experienced increased clean hydrogen development thanks to large-scale subsidies,there is a need to more effectively direct these efforts to enhance both the demand and supply of gree

270、n hydrogen.In contrast,Chinas hydrogen policy remains fragmented and underfunded,despite the countrys clear cost advantages in electrolyzer manufacturing.Going forward,both China and the U.S.need to actively create a domestic market for green hydrogen,focusing on supporting demonstrations and applic

271、ations in the industrial sector.For China,it is imperative to align the national hydrogen strategy with both the evolving international energy geopolitical landscape and the domestic long-term strategy for carbon neutrality.Furthermore,active participation in international research cooperation and s

272、tandard certification is crucial for ensuring the competitiveness of industrial products.3.3 Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)Since 2022,notable progress has been made on commercial CCUS deployment worldwide.As of July 31,43 Li,J.R.,Lin J.,Wang,J.X.,Lu,X.,Nielsen,C.P.,McElroy,M.B.,Song,Y.

273、H.,Song,J.,Lyu,S.F.,Yu,M.K.,Wu,S.R.,Yu,Z.P.In review(2024).Redesigning Electrification of Chinas Chemical Industry to Mitigate Carbon and Security Impacts on the Power System.Nature Energy.44 Qiu Y.W et al.2023.Research Status of Green Hydrogen-Based Chemical Engineering Technology and Prospect of K

274、ey Supporting Technologies for Large-Scale Utilization of New EnergiesJ/OL.Proceedings of the CSEE:1-20(in Chinese).https:/doi.org/10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.230233.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 27 2023,there were

275、 392 announcements for proposed CCUS projects globally.Of these,41 projects are in operation(representing a capture capacity of 49 million tons CO2/year),26 projects are under construction,and 325 projects are under development;successful completion of these projects could result in a capture capaci

276、ty exceeding 360 million tons of CO2 annually.45 CCUS facilities have been deployed across various sectors,including ethanol,power generation,heating,hydrogen,ammonia,fertilizer,natural gas processing,and cement.There are also six Direct Air Capture(DAC)projects that are either operational or in dev

277、elopment.46 Additionally,the world is witnessing，significant growth in CO2 transportation and storage projects.More than 210 million tons of CO2 storage capacity was announced in 2022,reflecting an increase of 110 million tons from the year prior.47 With over 140 CCUS hubs in progress,48 a global CO

278、2 transportation and storage”industry is emerging.Although 45 countries now have plans to develop CCUS technology,49 a significant gap exists between current capacities and future demand under the net-zero scenario.As the two largest emitters,China and the United States are crucial players in large-

279、scale CCUS facility deployment.Research from Princeton University projects that in order to achieve net zero,the scale of U.S.CO2 capture must reach 0.9-1.7 billion tons of CO2 per year.50 Various studies on Chinas carbon neutrality suggest that the countrys annual carbon capture capacity will need

280、to reach 1-2.5 billion tons of CO2 by 206051，52，53.In November 2023,China and the United States jointly released the aforementioned Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis;as part of it,the two countries committed to promoting at least 45 Global CCS Institute(GCCS

281、I),2023.Global status of CCS 2023:scaling up through 2030.46 Ibid.47 Fajarday M.,Greenfield C.,Moore R.,2023.How new business models are boosting momentum on CCUS.IEA Commentary,March 24,2023.48 Ibid.49 Ibid.50 Larson Eric,Chris Greig,Jesse Jenkins,Erin Mayfield,Andrew Pascale,Chuan Zhang,Joshua Dro

282、ssman,et al.2021.“Net-Zero America:Potential Pathways,Infrastructure,and Impacts.”51 Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization.2021.China Carbon Neutrality Before 2060.(in Chinese)52 Zhang X.,Huang X.,Zhang D.,et al.2022.Research on energy economy transition pathway and

283、policy under the goal of carbon neutrality.Management World.38(01):35-66.DOI:10.19744/ki.11-1235/f.2022.0005.（In Chinese）53 Zhang X.,Yang X.L.,Lu X.2023.CCUS Progress in China-A Status Report(2023).China Agenda 21 Management Center,Global Institute of Carbon Capture and Storage,Tsinghua University.T

284、singhua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 28 five large-scale CCUS cooperation projects in their industrial and energy sectors.54 The following sections address recent research and policy progress on CCUS development in the Un

285、ited States and China,respectively.(1)CCUS technology progress and policies in the United States The United States enjoys a carbon storage potential of between 2.6-22 trillion metric tons of CO2(8.3 trillion tons in a moderate scenario).55 In previous publications,the Harvard Kennedy School team hig

286、hlighted numerous long-and short-term benefits and applications of CCUS deployment in the United States,such as enhancing power-system flexibility,reusing captured CO2 for manufacturing or industrial processes,delivering“net-negative emissions when combined with electricity generation from biofuels(

287、BECCS)”,and enabling natural-gas-based,low-carbon hydrogen production.56 Enhanced oil recovery(EOR)remains a key application as well,in as much as sequestering CO2 in oil-bearing geological formations allows oil production that defrays carbon capture and sequestration costs.57 In a recent report(Gal

288、eazzi et al.(2023),the Harvard Kennedy School team found that“adequately sized regional or national networks,where capture sites organically connect to shared CO2 transportation and storage networks,are achievable in the next decades given the right policies and associated market conditions.”58 Seve

289、ral policies have been passed with the aim of creating the necessary conditions for network expansion.For example,the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA)strengthened the CO2 sequestration tax credit in Section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Code increasing the credit amounts by 70%-260%(depending on end use)a

290、s well as lowering the CO2 capture threshold for credit qualification and easing monetization of the credit 59.Table 3-1(below)outlines the 45Q changes between the BIL and IRA.Table 3-1 45Q credits under the Bipartisan Budget Act and the Inflation Reduction Act 54 U.S.Department of State,2023.The Su

291、nnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis.https:/www.state.gov/sunnylands-statement-on-enhancing-cooperation-to-address-the-climate-crisis/55 Clara Galeazzi,Grace Lam,John P.Holdren,2023.Carbon capture,utilization,and storage:CO2 transport costs and network infrastruc

292、ture considerations for a net-zero United States.Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.56 Ibid.57 USGS,2023.“Using Petroleum Reservoirs to Store Carbon.”https:/www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/using-petroleum-reservoirs-store-carbon 58 Clara Galeazzi,Grace Lam,John P.Holdren,2023.Carbo

293、n capture,utilization,and storage:CO2 transport costs and network infrastructure considerations for a net-zero United States.Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.59 Ibid.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutralit

294、y 29 Source:Clara Galeazzi,Grace Lam,John P.Holdren,2023.Infrastructure for CO2 transportation must also be considered in CCUS policy.In 2018,the United States had 5,012 miles(8,066 kilometers)of CO2 pipelines,most of which was used for EOR.This figure represented only about 2%of all non-gas pipelin

295、es,60 but expanding it rapidly to handle a large increase in CCUS would be inhibited by multi-layered permitting requirements.For example,projects crossing a combination of federal,state,and private lands,may need up to 30 permitting reviews and approvals before construction begins.61 To address the

296、se challenges,the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act included several provisions to facilitate CO2 infrastructure expansion,such as its CO2 Infrastructure and Finance Innovation Act.62 Notwithstanding the policy interventions to date,U.S.CCUS development faces considerable challenges.CCUS r

297、emains economically uncompetitive in most applications,despite current subsidy and tax credit structures.63 While EOR can offset CCUS project costs where its an option,low oil prices threaten EORs commercial viability.64 There is considerable opposition to CCUS,moreover,based on the argument that it

298、s use would extend reliance on fossil fuels and,in the case of the EOR option,would enable increased oil production.The logic underlying these propositions is debatable,but they do continue to complicate both public acceptance of CCUS and policy development.60 Clara Galeazzi,Grace Lam,John P.Holdren

299、,2023.Carbon capture,utilization,and storage:CO2 transport costs and network infrastructure considerations for a net-zero United States.Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.61 Ibid.62 Ibid.63 Moch,Jonathan M.,Xue,William,&John P.Holdren.2022.Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage:Tech

300、nologies and Costs in the U.S.Context.Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.64 Ibid.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 30(2)CCUS technology progress and policies in China Chinas theoretical CO2 storage ca

301、pacity estimates range from 1.21 to 4.13 trillion tons.The Songliao Basin has a storage capacity of 695.4 billion tons,the Tarim Basin of 552.8 billion tons of CO2,and the Bohai Bay Basin holds about 50%of the total storage capacity65.Since the announcement of the national carbon peaking and carbon

302、neutrality goals in September 2020,the number of CCUS demonstration projects in China has increased rapidly from 42 to 100.Nearly half of these projects have been operationalized with a capture capacity of more than 4 million tons of CO2 per year and an injection capacity of more than 2 million tons

303、 CO2 per year.At present,Chinas CCUS demonstration projects span multiple industries including electric power,oil and gas,chemicals,cement,and steel.The power sector alone features over 20 demonstration projects66.Industrial cluster projects such as the Xinjiang CCUS cluster,the Daya Bay Area CCUS c

304、luster project,and the East China CCUS cluster project are currently in preparation.From a value chain perspective,technology advancements and demonstration projects are propelling the development of a new generation of low-cost,low-energy carbon capture technologies.These investments are transition

305、ing from pilot testing to industrial demonstration.CCUS demonstration projects are evolving from single technology applications to comprehensive,whole-process applications.In terms of CO2 transportation,road tanker trucks and inland waterway shipping technologies have been commercialized at a scale

306、of less than 100,000 tCO2/year67.CO2 pipeline transportation has seen breakthroughs,while submarine pipeline transportation is still in the research phase.While system optimization has entered commercial applications in the U.S.,China has limited experience in large-scale and whole value chain CCUS

307、operations,particularly in pipeline network optimization and cluster hub development.CO2 utilization is the focus of Chinas CCUS industry.Utilization objectives include EOR,dry ice production,and chemical production(methanol,fertilizer,etc.).At present,EOR is the predominant approach for CO2 utiliza

308、tion in CCUS demonstration projects.That said,the number of chemical and biological utilization projects is increasing.Over 30 carbon capture projects use CO2 for EOR,while a few projects utilize CO2 for intensive coalbed methane extraction.However,only a handful of projects sequester the collected

309、CO2 for 65 Cai B.F.,Li Q.,Zhang X.Annual report on carbon capture,utilization,and storage(2021).(in Chinese)66 Zhang X.,Yang X.L.,Lu X.2023.CCUS Progress in China-A Status Report(2023).China Agenda 21 Management Center,Global Institute of Carbon Capture and Storage,Tsinghua University.67 Ibid.Tsingh

310、ua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 31 geological storage.To meet Chinas 2060 carbon neutrality target,the scale of CO2 captured must reach 1-2.5 billion tons per year68,69,70.Chinas current capture capacity equals only about

311、 0.16%-4%of the projected demand under the carbon neutrality goal.Moreover,the spatial mismatch between Chinas emission sources and sinks creates additional challenges,and there is a lack of onshore storage sites in eastern,central,and southern China.These regions will need to rely on seabed storage

312、.Collectively,these factors create a huge gap between carbon capture capacity and future demand.Among the four major industries,the cost of CCUS in the coal chemical industry is the lowest.The cement industry presents additional low-cost emission reduction opportunities due to its small scale and wi

313、de distribution.CCUS installation in coal-fired power plants could avoid asset stranding,promote a just transition,and significantly reduce the cost of achieving carbon neutrality in the power system.It is estimated that by 2050,CCUS technology will be widely deployed in the energy and industrial se

314、ctors.The cost of second-generation capture technology is expected to decrease by more than 50%,leading to a substantial overall cost reduction71.China holds a cost advantage as compared to other countries.Based on current demonstration projects,costs are declining yearly as a result of learning by

315、doing.Case study:China National Energy Group CCS post-capture technology demonstration project In June 2021,the China National Energy Groups 150,000 tons/year coal-fired power CCS post-capture technology demonstration project,initiated as a national key R&D project in 2018,commenced formal operation

316、s.This project utilizes captured CO2 for enhanced oil recovery(EOR)in nearby oilfields and high value-added chemicals production,such as sodium bicarbonate and dimethyl carbonate production.The technical performance parameters are impressive,with a CO2 capture rate of 90%,CO2 concentration of 99%,ab

317、sorbent regeneration energy consumption of 2.4GJ/tCO2,and power consumption of 90kWh/tCO2.Furthermore,the pilots operational cost is 40%lower than similar international projects,and 68 Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization.2021.China Carbon Neutrality Before 2060.(in

318、 Chinese)69 Zhang X.,Huang X.,Zhang D.,et al.2022.Research on energy economy transition pathway and policy under the goal of carbon neutrality.Management World.38(01):35-66.DOI:10.19744/ki.11-1235/f.2022.0005.70 Zhang X.,Yang X.L.,Lu X.2023.CCUS Progress in China-A Status Report(2023).China Agenda 2

319、1 Management Center,Global Institute of Carbon Capture and Storage,Tsinghua University.71 Ibid.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 32 its unit construction cost is the lowest globally,at US$40/tCO2.Another 500,000 tons/

320、year CO2 capture demonstration project was developed to optimize the selection of absorbents,materials,and equipment,leading to costs as low as US$35/tCO272.The Chinese government has introduced various measures to support CCUS,including policies targeting R&D demonstrations,tax incentives,subsidies

321、,and capacity building.However,widespread policy dissemination has been hindered by factors including varying stages of technological maturity,diverse regional fiscal conditions,and challenges in adapting policies at the national level.Chinas CCUS policies primarily provide guidance without outlinin

322、g specific regulations on aspects such as market access,construction,operation,supervision,and termination of CCUS projects.The preferential tax policies for CCUS are dispersed across categories including environmental protection,energy conservation,water conservation,and comprehensive resource util

323、ization.These tax incentives encompass value-added taxes,resource taxes,and the enterprise income tax,with exemptions and reductions granted in certain cases.In terms of regional financial subsidies,some cities,including Shenzhen and Beijing,provide grants or awards for CCUS project investments,with

324、 maximum caps of 10 million yuan and 30 million yuan,respectively73，74.Financial policies supporting CCUS include the Peoples Bank of Chinas carbon emission reduction supporting tool and the Green Bond Taxonomy.However,technical standards and guidelines remain scarce.In 2018,the Ministry of Industry

325、 and Information Technology issued a standard for CO2 transportation pipelines,while the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released the Design Standard for Flue Gas Carbon Dioxide Capture and Purification Engineering.Some industry associations and academic institutions are proactively

326、developing standards for environmental risk assessments and the measurement and verification of greenhouse gas emissions reductions.72 Cui,Q.,et al.,A 150000ta1 Post-Combustion Carbon Capture and Storage Demonstration Project for Coal-Fired Power Plants.Engineering,2022.14:p.22-26 73 Shenzhen Munici

327、pal Development and Reform Commission.2023.Guidelines for the Application of Special Fund Projects for Strategic Emerging Industries(First Batch).74 Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology,Beijing Municipal Bureau of Finance.2022.Beijing Municipal High-tech Industry Developmen

328、t Fund Implementation Guide.Tsinghua University Harvard University Project on Technological Systems and Innovation Policy for Climate Neutrality 33 Regarding project life cycle management,13 government departments are currently involved in the pre-project approval and supervision processes,reflectin

329、g a fragmented regulatory landscape.There is also a lack of clarity regarding regulatory responsibilities for CCUS storage projects after the wells are sealed.Overall,Chinas CCUS technology and infrastructure development lag behind that of the U.S.The capture technology is still in the demonstration

330、 stage,and the CCUS system integration and optimization are only in the pilot stage;meanwhile,the U.S.has advanced to the commercial application stage.With the expansion of application scenarios,CCUS technology may emerge as an integral component of Chinas deep decarbonization technology system.It i

331、s the only choice for near-zero emission from fossil fuels;along with green hydrogen,it is one of the feasible solutions for the deep decarbonization of hard-to-abate industries(such as steel and cement);and it is the main technical measure to support future carbon recycling in the future.Considerin

332、g the international geopolitical landscape and domestic imperatives for meeting carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,China urgently needs to elevate CCUS from a strategic reserve technology to a realistic solution,thereby necessitating further study on its targets,development strategy,and appl

333、ications.4.Progress and preliminary assessment of climate policy in the United States and China 4.1 Climate policy progress in the federal government of the United States Although the U.S.is the worlds second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases,its CO2 emissions peaked in 2007 and have been trending downward,falling by 19.9%from 2007 to 2020.However,there was a notable increase of 370 million tons