1、 / 12018 3.27 1.1-1.310.8 1:0.5 2 201023.2201886.5 13% 32018 + 4.6 2020-20212.59/3.55 PE20/15 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 755 1,002 1,271 1,841 2,527 (+/-)% 24.39% 32.80% 26.84% 44.87% 37.24% 78 131 161 259 355 (+/-)% 6.71% 68.88% 22.67% 61.32% 37.07% 0.11 0.18 0.22 0.36 0.50 65.14 27.21 32.42 20.
2、10 14.66 3.49 2.30 3.05 2.65 2.24 (%) 5.36% 8.46% 9.40% 13.17% 15.29% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 511 716 716 716 716 2020/3/6 6 10.00 7.28 12 4.988.36 5,210 716 A 716 B/H 0/0 50 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 2019/32019/62019/9 2019/12 % 1M 3M 12M 38% 30% 14% 32% 24% 7% -20200303 -20200303 -20200210
3、 12 15%-20200120 S0550516090002 (021)20361113 S0550519090001 (021)20361113 S0550519090001 0 0 300420 2020-03-09 2 / 28 1. . 3 1.1. . 3 1.2. . 4 2. . 7 2.1. . 7 2.2. . 12 3. + . 14 3.1. . 15 3.2. + . 21 3.3. . 23 4. . 23 3 / 28 1. 1.1. 2018 31723.272.4 220095218 20192.07297%11% 201921362144.49.2% 9.6
4、%2100 1 2 1.1-1.31.1 2016 2,400 10.810.5 4 / 28 3/ 2018 600190419 51178433 336192192 150 7060 4 2018, 1.2. 5 / 28 2008 1002011 762 5100 Wind 1 2 6 / 28 1PSH 2PCS 3PPY 4PJS 5PXD 6PDX 7PSX 8PCX - 9PQS 6 7 / 28 1 50660.8 5.5m*2.4m 13.266871.2 1/2-1/10 2 , 3 , , 24 90 4 2. 2.1. 3 12080 1988
5、290 1991 1997 19982001 32003 90% 8 / 28 7 2010 2015 201587 20154 201512 20159 20168 20161 201611 + 20189 9 / 28 1 20% PPP 2016 NB-IoT NB-IoT 2018-2020 10 / 28 201710 7 20183 2018127 2 , 20174201818 20183634 25 3325 8 9 , 2018 , 2018 11 / 28 2011 00 100 10% 10 11 , Wind , Wind 3
6、0%2019 34469.1% 2834315912% 12 2019730 2019 9 12 / 28 32019 2019730 201994 , , 2.2. 15 20195.57 3.563% 13 142019 , , Wind 2003 2010100 201520192 636 71% 548363 13 / 28 15 1993 20 20 2019 2019 201837 572019 67 14 / 28 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 46 56 54 57 62 13 27 29 29 37 11 21 27 22 4
7、8 11 11 15 18 9 10 19 28 26 19 10 15 12 20 6 15 19 , 2017 6.86 20175.867.81 5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2.95 4.11 4.77 5.32 6.03 - 1.151.42 1.54 2.08 + - 5.26 6.19 6.86 8.11 6.7 6.4 7.07 7.81 4.31 3.06 3.81 , Wind 2017 3. + 2018+ 2019 20197 201825 15 / 28 + 3.1. 16 BOT3 30 () 16500 16 / 28 17 3673 1.
8、06 36%18% 12%11% 23% 6 3673 1.06 , 60%25.2% 17 / 28 17 2019 18 2018 29.88%9.96% 18 / 28 19 19 / 28 20 ab4s c d 21 20 / 28 2015 9 2018 20193 201912 2021-2035 7 201811 3 20171 201612 20159 2015 100% 10%2000 30% 20%10%2018 100% 21 / 28 8 20202012020 43.52 30.9 455.0 25.3 2020211026 202020850
9、 202092035 65625 202050018 202036747072 2020387-4009-1210-13 2020151 , 4.5, 3.2. + 1 2 3 22 / 28 4 5 6+ 2016329 201666 20171011 22 23 / 28 3.3. 1-2 3-4 201825 630 23 4. a. 20%-30% 24 / 28 20-21 50%40% 35% 24.6 20194 500054% 20-21 175%50% 3 2019 20-210%0% 4 50% 20-2140%40% 5201850% 20-2130%20% 25 / 2
10、8 24 20172018 2019E2020E2021E 60775512527 24%33%26.8%44.9%37.2% 387489656 36.2%35.2%35.0%35.2%35.8%35.6% 408489628 20%27%24.00%50.00%40.00% 25531068 37.4%34.7%35.7%33.0%34.0%34.0% 28.580120 144060 50.0%50.0% 690476 55%61%40%40%40% 49721311602243
11、14 29.0%33.1%24.4%33.9%33.9%33.9% 68978 43%15%-4%0%0% 4 40.3%43.3%43.2%45.2%45.2%45.2% 6265 -1%53%30%30%30% 4243557496125 31.9%30.0%41.3%39.0%39.0%39.0% Wind 2020-20212.59/3.55PE 20/15 26 / 28 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 108 200 167 181 129 159 25
12、6 351 0 0 0 0 20 20 24 27 687 790 1,145 1,571 26 0 0 0 303 325 466 641 0 0 0 0 193 206 250 303 5 3 3 3 1,290 1,520 2,027 2,697 -3 -10 -10 -10 0 0 0 0 -255 -38 -264 -315 6 6 6 6 -6 0 0 0 201 201 201 201 -82 133 8 55 111 111 111 111 -54 -38 -38 -38 502 502 502 502 39 -3 -3 -3 912 960 1,008 1,057 270 1
13、46 470 622 2,203 2,481 3,036 3,753 50 50 50 50 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 246 281 404 556 146 186 269 369 0.18 0.22 0.36 0.50 0 0 0 0 2.16 2.39 2.75 3.25 611 730 1,030 1,397 -0.11 0.19 0.01 0.08 0 0 0 0 17 17 17 17 32.80% 26.84% 44.87% 37.24% 17 17 17 17 68.88% 22.67% 61.32% 37.07% 628 747 1,046 1,413
14、1,548 1,709 1,968 2,324 35.00% 35.19% 35.77% 35.63% 27 25 21 17 13.07% 12.64% 14.08% 14.06% 2,203 2,481 3,036 3,753 226.90 226.90 226.90 226.90 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 143.88 143.88 143.88 143.88 1,002 1,271 1,841 2,527 651 824 1,183 1,626 28.49% 30.11% 34.47% 37.65% 8 11 15 21 2.11 2.08 1.97 1.93 2
15、0 20 24 27 1.55 1.57 1.44 1.40 76 91 131 177 60 84 110 152 7.54% 7.14% 7.14% 7.00% 6 9 11 17 5.97% 6.62% 6.00% 6.00% 0 0 0 0 0.58% 0.70% 0.60% 0.69% 3 10 10 10 147 176 285 390 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -3 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 144 176 285 390 14 18 29 39 P/E 27.21 32.42 20.10 14.66 129 159 256
16、 351 P/B 2.30 3.05 2.65 2.24 131 161 259 355 P/S 5.20 4.10 2.83 2.06 -2 -2 -3 -5 8.46% 9.40% 13.17% 15.29% 27 / 28 / 201010 20173 “” R3AB AAABS “” 615% 65%15% 6-5%5% 65%15% 615% 6 6 6 28 / 28 400-600-0686 6666 130119 28D 100033 729 200127 100622A 518038 12215 510630 021-2036
17、1229 chen_ L liu_ C